Normally I would say the undecides will likely vote for the challenger since if they haven't made up their mind by now, the incumbant has not made his case to them.  However, we are in an entirely new dynamic in which the nation is at war and the threat seems real to those at home.  Nobody ever thought the Koreans or the Vietnamese would strike Manhattan.  However, we now live in a world where baby carriages can suddenly blow up in a mall.  While we go on living our lives, we are accutely aware that our sense on onvulnerability has been stripped away.  The fact that the economy is not stellar (although all considered it is very respectable) and that we are getting better news, but still not great, from the Middle East, Kerry has not been able to effectively portray the president as a bad leader.  Kerry also has a problem of having to eventually come down on one side, and his support is 1/3 anti-war, 1/3 pro-war and 1/3 who are kool-aid drinkers and will vote for him no matter what.  It looks like he is staking the pro-war, but I can do it better side, or is he against the war... or is he the wrong war, wrong place, wrong time guy... that 1/3 anti-war crowd is not happy with him, the pro-war group isn't either.  He doesn;t have solid support when you look at his internals.  I'm not convinced these people turn out in mass numbers.  If the man can't sell to those who are supposedly his base, I'm not convinced he sells to those who are undecided.