Posted: 9/11/2004 12:49:16 PM EDT
Boo-yah www.time.com/time/election2004/article/0,18471,695528,00.html ast week’s seismic voter shift to George W. Bush showed no signs of dwindling in this week’s Time Poll. Bush continues to lead Democratic challenger John Kerry among likely voters by double digits, 52% - 41%, in the three way race, with Nader at 3%, the same as last week.
Putting this into perspective, just a month ago, post-Democratic convention, the Time Poll had Kerry with a statistically significant lead over Bush, 48% - 43%.
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Even more damaging to Kerry is that Bush now has a 6 point lead on handling of the economy, 50% - 44%. Just one month ago, Kerry had the edge, 51% - 42%.
Bush has also taken commanding leads over Kerry on handing of the following issues:
* War on terrorism: Bush is up 23 percentage points over Kerry, 58% - 35%, compared to an 8 point lead in early August. * Situation in Iraq: Bush is up 20 points over Kerry, 57% - 37%, compared to a 2 point edge in early August. * Commander in Chief: Bush is up 20 points over Kerry, 57% - 37%, compared to a tie in early August.
Kerry now has only a small edge on health care, 47% - 42%, falling from an 18 point margin in early August. He’s now just even up with Bush, 47% Bush – 44% Kerry, on “understanding the needs of people like yourself,” after leading Bush by 15 points in early August.
Key Electability Indicators
Bush’s ratings on three key questions tied to electability have risen in recent weeks, but Bush still gets tentative scores on two of the three.
* Job rating: Bush is now at 56% approve – 41% disapprove, solidly above the 50% historical threshold for re-electing incumbents. A month ago, he was up only 5 points, with his favorability just at 50%.
* Deserves re-election?: Bush has cracked the 50% mark for the first time in recent Poll history, with 52% saying he deserves re-election, while 45% saying it’s time for someone new. Just a month ago, Bush was down by 12 points on deserving re-election.
* Right Direction?: Voters are now almost evenly divided on whether the country is headed in the right direction or on the wrong track, 46% - 49%. However that’s up from 44% right direction – 51% wrong track in early August.
Bush Favorability Up, Kerry Down
Bush’s favorability scores have risen significantly, to 54% favorable - 38% unfavorable. In early August, his favorability was even, 45% favorable – 45% unfavorable. Meanwhile, Kerry’s unfavorable ratings have increased significantly. His favorable – unfavorable scores are now even, 43% favorable – 42% unfavorable. In early August, Kerry favorable – unfavorable ratio was almost 2 to 1, 53% favorable – 29% unfavorable.
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