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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:25:53 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CoconutLaCroix]
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage hit 4.72% on Tuesday, moving 26 basis points higher since just Friday, according to Mortgage News Daily. As a result of the recent spike in rates, economists are now lowering their home sales forecasts for this year. Most estimates at the end of last year had the average 30-year mortgage rate hitting 4.5% by the end of 2022, but the war in Ukraine, rising oil prices and inflation have all lit a fire under interest rates. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/mortgage-rates-are-surging-faster-than-expected-prompting-economists-to-lower-their-home-sales-forecasts.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter  And the Fed hasn't even ceased their $40 billion monthly MBS purchases yet. That fully ends starting in April.... Aaaand they're possibly going to start selling the $2.9 Trillion they already own, which will cause rates to pop even more. Rates were 2.7% 6 months ago. Going from 2.7% to 6% just added about $800 to the monthly payment on a median home for the avg prospective home buyer. Things are starting to look yucky for the housing bubble. ETA 9/25 4.95%!  Attached FileEta 6/14 6%  30-year mortgage passes 6% 7/7 5.3% - fastest drop since 2008 https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/current-mortgage-rates-drop-by-half-a-percentage-point 8/27 7% - fastest surge in history 10/18 8%!  |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:29:09 PM EDT
[#1]
Poor millennials just can't catch a break
 ...
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:29:11 PM EDT
[#2]
And burst goes the bubble! Thanks a lot FJB!
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WI, USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:32:56 PM EDT
[#3]
I get the feeling I won't be refinancing for quite some time.
It's going to be a crazy ride 
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:33:04 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CoconutLaCroix]
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jollyg83: And burst goes the bubble! Thanks a lot FJB! It needs to burst. The primary driver of the bubble has been socialistic interest rate manipulation. Now that the Fed has quit sticking its thumb on the scales by purchasing $40 billion in monthly MBS, we're finally getting a glimpse of what free market mortgage rates look like. But not the full picture yet, because in order for it to be a free market the Fed will need to dump the $2.72 Trillion it already owns. We're all in favor of privatization right? I am. This chart should be Zero, as it was up until 2009.  Attached File |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:35:24 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CoconutLaCroix]
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RIP-Yataski: Poor millennials just can't catch a break ... |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:36:37 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: If they've been diligently building up a down payment, they might catch a break soon enough. Higher rates rewards savers and screws debtors when the home prices adjust back down to reflect the true state of demand. I hope you’re right even thought I don’t have a high enough down payment. |
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NC, USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:39:33 PM EDT
[#7]
Crazy how that's a full 2 pts higher than I got on a 20 year fixed in October (refi). It will certainly start to cool the housing market, but with true inflation at 10%+, the effective interest rate is still -5.28%!
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:42:28 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By USMC2111: Crazy how that's a full 2 pts higher than I got on a 20 year fixed in October (refi). It will certainly start to cool the housing market, but with true inflation at 10%+, the effective interest rate is still -5.28%! 
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:42:58 PM EDT
[#9]
so it almost doubled due to a .25 percent hike??
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FL, USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:43:03 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Pallas]
[#10]
Goddamn Biden has made it unaffordable for people to buy homes now.
 It's quite obvious that we will need some sort of stimulus because fuel, food, and interest rates are hurting the transvestites. |
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AR, USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:44:08 PM EDT
[#11]
It’s long overdue. I don’t think many, if any learned from the last bust - banks included. This one has a feel of 10x worse. I’m seeing subdivisions that would’ve had 150 footings dug in a month, now just a few guys out there shoving the dirt piles they moved yesterday back where they were. Someone knows it’s coming.
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:44:54 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bakkbakk: so it almost doubled due to a .25 percent hike?? Banks are factoring in the fed rate increases, would be my guess. Rates will be going up all year. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:45:31 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: If they've been diligently building up a down payment, they might catch a break soon enough. Higher rates rewards savers and screws debtors when the home prices adjust back down to reflect the true state of demand absent of the cheap credit. why are we applauding having to pay banks more instead of homeowners? We are in a housing supply shortage regardless of rates. This just fucks homeowners. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:46:39 PM EDT
[#14]
Meh. Sp500 closed over 4500. We all knew the free money train was going to end. It’s what you did with free money times that matter.
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:48:32 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CoconutLaCroix]
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bakkbakk: so it almost doubled due to a .25 percent hike?? There is a massive void in the MBS market now that the Fed is exiting the game. They have essentially nationalized 1/3rd of the mortgage market over the last 2 years. And that void is possibly going to be widened if they start dumping the trillions in MBS they already own. That void has to be filled by the market, and there's not anywhere near enough demand so MBS prices will fall and MBS yields will rise which will result in rapidly rising mortgage rates. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:50:11 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CoconutLaCroix]
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bakkbakk: why are we applauding having to pay banks more instead of homeowners? We are in a housing supply shortage regardless of rates. This just fucks homeowners. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:51:34 PM EDT
[#17]
Good, maybe it will slow down the amount of people buying up rural farm land and dropping in million dollar McMansions in our area.
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:52:02 PM EDT
[#18]
You young guns ain’t seent nothin yet.
My first place was a double wide modular. 12%, and I was glad to get that. My last note was 1.75. I made $$$ on every single one. What a country. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:52:30 PM EDT
[#19]
Sub 5% is historicaly low, heck sub 7 is "good" historicly. Folks need to stop there bitchen.
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:52:51 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CoconutLaCroix]
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DVCER: You young guns ain't seent nothin yet. My first place was a double wide modular. 12%, and I was glad to get that. My last note was 1.75. I made $$$ on every single one. What a country. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:53:14 PM EDT
[#21]
Damn. That sucks.
If the market doesn't cool and people keep throwing money at homes it's going to make buying a home for first time buyers impossible. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:53:21 PM EDT
[#22]
Leverage will get spicy with rates rising. Who goes kaboom first?
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:54:11 PM EDT
[#23]
Good
I’m not sure there’s a real bubble but I want to buy a rental |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:54:22 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: 12% rates would be a dream for me. And they really should be closer to there considering where inflation really is if we measured it the same way we did in the 70's and 80's Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: Originally Posted By DVCER: You young guns ain't seent nothin yet. My first place was a double wide modular. 12%, and I was glad to get that. My last note was 1.75. I made $$$ on every single one. What a country. Yeah at 8% (yeah right) inflation a 5% mortgage is still lower. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:54:38 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: It screws debtors who bought into the hysteria and living beyond their means by overextended themselves on homes they couldn't truly afford absent the artificially low rates and rewards people who have been diligently saving down payments. I wouldnt say debtors are living beyond their means if they bought a house they could afford during a time of low rates. I understand the rest though |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:55:51 PM EDT
[#26]
I signed my lending on a new house two weeks ago. We all knew hikes were coming.
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:56:09 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MilHouse-556: Damn. That sucks. If the market doesn't cool and people keep throwing money at homes it's going to make buying a home for first time buyers impossible. In some areas RE investors are over 40% of the market now which is fucking insane, and they'll be the first to start scurrying away the moment things start to look sour, followed by the people who just bought the top, and then we slowly tumble from there. The last bubble took 4 years to bottom out, and the only reprieve was the Fed jumping in and starting their unconstitutional MBS purchase program |
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USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:56:14 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RIP-Yataski: Poor millennials just can't catch a break ... housing prices dropping like a rock and curbing inflation would greatly benefit first time home buyers like millennials and the poor.i sure wish i could go back 5 or 7 years and buy a couple more houses. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:57:19 PM EDT
[#29]
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:58:47 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CoconutLaCroix]
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bakkbakk: I wouldnt say debtors are living beyond their means if they bought a house they could afford during a time of low rates. I understand the rest though So now they have some folding chairs in their living room and a blow up mattress, and are living hand to mouth in a home they can't afford. When they finally go underwater, they'll walk away. And many of them will probably be losing their jobs in the recession that we are almost guaranteed to have now that the yield curve is about to invert. We'll see if the Fed and Govt try to inflate their way out of a recession that was caused by inflation this go around. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:59:13 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Pallas: Goddamn Biden has made it unaffordable for people to buy homes now. It's quite obvious that we will need some sort of stimulus because fuel, food, and interest rates are hurting the transvestites. Lol wait wut |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 7:59:31 PM EDT
[#32]
I am so glad the wife and I got ours at 3.125% in December. Add the base price of our house (from Mar '21 to now) has gone from $231k to $310k.
We are fortunate. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:01:38 PM EDT
[#33]
Fuck yes. I want to buy a house, and the retarded prices on everything have been a hurdle. I want this shit to crater hard.
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:02:50 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: 12% rates would be a dream for me. And they really should be closer to there considering where inflation really is if we measured it the same way we did in the 70's and 80's Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: Originally Posted By DVCER: You young guns ain't seent nothin yet. My first place was a double wide modular. 12%, and I was glad to get that. My last note was 1.75. I made $$$ on every single one. What a country. Really, dumb luck for me. I hate to see young people struggling, but if my college drop out ass can figure out how to get from electrician to here, and retired early, anyone can. I’m on my (hopefully) forever place, a couple acres with a National monument on my back fence.  Attached File |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:04:43 PM EDT
[#35]
Prices drop a bit but the higher rates will be painful.
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:05:13 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DVCER: Really, dumb luck for me. I hate to see young people struggling, but if my college drop out ass can figure out how to get from electrician to here, and retired early, anyone can. I'm on my (hopefully) forever place, a couple acres with a National monument on my back fence. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/857/B2799CCD-5F85-4DB1-BEAB-D309E4C744CF_jpe-2322893.JPG |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:05:14 PM EDT
[Last Edit: fuzzy03cls]
[#37]
Good!. Down the block from me...3 lots were just cleared to build houses. On a corner. 3 lots...side by side by side, that's like a full block!
WTF!!! Feel sorry for the guy at the end on the other corner. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:05:22 PM EDT
[#38]
All we're lacking to reproduce the Carter years is double digit interest rates to go along with double digit inflation. We're getting there.
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:07:16 PM EDT
[Last Edit: OregonShooter]
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RIP-Yataski: Poor millennials just can't catch a break ...This millennial sure as hell did when I purchased a HUD home in 2011 for 140k that sold new for 260K in 2006. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:08:22 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Darrellbear: All we're lacking to reproduce the Carter years is double digit interest rates to go along with double digit inflation. We're getting there. Curious what your recommendations are? |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:09:08 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: Looks like a slice of heaven to me! I'm ready to get the hell out of the city It is nice. We were just flying a kite out back. Far west Colorado.  Attached File |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:09:59 PM EDT
[#42]
Look back to mortgage rates from 1981
I got a 15% when I divorced and was thrilled People would be jumping off the roof! |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:14:41 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Baddy]
[#43]
Can’t wait to see what effect this (and maybe we need a good hurricane season to boot) has on the FL market.
We’ve been looking to sell/buy locally but things have just been so ridiculous. 1700 sq ft 3/2 we looked at in an older neighborhood went for $250k 15 years ago, we got outbid on exactly a year ago at $625k, now is back on the market at $800k. +22% in a year. So many out-of-staters cashing out for $$$ in NY/NJ/CA coming down to wide-open FL and buying for cash. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:14:58 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: Not all, but a large percentage. I know lots of people overextending themselves on homes right now. People who jumped into a house recently and can't even afford furniture. But they had to buy because it was "now or never" and "prices are never coming back down." So now they have some folding chairs in their living room and a blow up mattress, and are living hand to mouth in a home they can't afford. When they finally go underwater, they'll walk away. And many of them will probably be losing their jobs in the recession that we are almost guaranteed to have now that the yield curve is about to invert. We'll see if the Fed and Govt try to inflate their way out of a recession that was caused by inflation this go around. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: Originally Posted By bakkbakk: I wouldnt say debtors are living beyond their means if they bought a house they could afford during a time of low rates. I understand the rest though So now they have some folding chairs in their living room and a blow up mattress, and are living hand to mouth in a home they can't afford. When they finally go underwater, they'll walk away. And many of them will probably be losing their jobs in the recession that we are almost guaranteed to have now that the yield curve is about to invert. We'll see if the Fed and Govt try to inflate their way out of a recession that was caused by inflation this go around. Mention the yield curve to 100 people and 99 will have eyes gloss over. Understanding what is happening underneath the surface is foreign to most. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:15:45 PM EDT
[#45]
Oh dang Im gonna be fuuuuuuuuucked.
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:16:34 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Off-the-Grid: Prices drop a bit but the higher rates will be painful. 400k Median home 30 yr 2.7% rates (like 7 months ago) 7.5% avg down payment =$1750 monthly payment  Attached File400k Median home 30 yr 8.5% rates (pretty avg for the US) 7.5% down payment = $3k monthly payment (fucked)  Attached FileBut the good news is home prices will have to drop to a level people can afford and to get us back to $1750 monthly payment at the higher 8.5% rate, median home prices would have to fall to $225k.  Attached FileBUUUT, if you saved up say $80k for a down payment your payment will be $1420 a month, on a 15 year. So you'd have a lower payment and you'll be on the debt hamster wheel for half the time!  Attached File |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:18:14 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CoconutLaCroix]
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DVCER: It is nice. We were just flying a kite out back. Far west Colorado. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/857/74EF7363-0A8C-4CBA-B9FB-394AB655D8AE_jpe-2322899.JPG |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:19:53 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Baddy: Can’t wait to see what effect this (and maybe we need a good hurricane season to boot) has on the FL market. We’ve been looking to sell/buy locally but things have just been so ridiculous. 1700 sq ft 3/2 we looked at in an older neighborhood went for $250k 15 years ago, we got outbid on exactly a year ago at $625k, now is back on the market at $800k. +22% in a year. So many out-of-staters cashing out for $$$ in NY/NJ/CA coming down to wide-open FL and buying for cash. If a 600-800k waterfront tear down in the 2004-2006 peak fell to 200-250k, then the current same 1.2m will fall to 400-450k? Waterfront will probably be strong enough to not be a terrible day if you can hold it for 10 years. |
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IN, USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:20:43 PM EDT
[#49]
Originally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage hit 4.72% on Tuesday, moving 26 basis points higher since just Friday, according to Mortgage News Daily. As a result of the recent spike in rates, economists are now lowering their home sales forecasts for this year. Most estimates at the end of last year had the average 30-year mortgage rate hitting 4.5% by the end of 2022, but the war in Ukraine, rising oil prices and inflation have all lit a fire under interest rates. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/mortgage-rates-are-surging-faster-than-expected-prompting-economists-to-lower-their-home-sales-forecasts.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FObNrFEXMAcOhuv?format=jpg&name=small And the Fed hasn't even ceased their $40 billion monthly MBS purchases yet. That fully ends starting in April.... Aaaand they're possibly going to start selling the $2.9 Trillion they already own, which will cause rates to pop even more. Rates were 2.7% 6 months ago. Going from 2.7% to 4.7% just added about $500 to the monthly payment on a median home for the avg prospective home buyer. Things are starting to look yucky for the housing bubble. Cup and handle |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:21:48 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By exponentialpi: Leverage will get spicy with rates rising. Who goes kaboom first? I hate to say it, but I'm thinking about grabbing some puts on the Detroit 3. Low inventory. Fucked supply chain. Rising commodity costs. All in on low mpg vehicles. How long does sticker price + hold up? |
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