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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:22:01 PM EDT
[Last Edit: hicap]
[#1]
Prices should start dropping, when rates get to about 6-7% prices will adjust accordingly, the value of your house can drop and will drop high rate env,
As long as you got fixed rate a while back you should be ok just don’t borrow against your house |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:23:37 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: If they've been diligently building up a down payment, they might catch a break soon enough. Higher rates rewards savers and screws debtors when the home prices adjust back down to reflect the true state of demand absent of the cheap credit. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: Originally Posted By RIP-Yataski: Poor millennials just can't catch a break  ...That is true in a normal world, but that's not where we're living. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:25:28 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: It screws debtors who bought into the hysteria and living beyond their means by overextended themselves on homes they couldn't truly afford absent the artificially low rates and rewards people who have been diligently saving down payments. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: Originally Posted By bakkbakk: why are we applauding having to pay banks more instead of homeowners? We are in a housing supply shortage regardless of rates. This just fucks homeowners. Actually, it won't do a thing to those that have a traditional loan and have already bought a house as long as they stay where they are at and don't sell. If you bought to flip, you're fvcked. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:27:26 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fxntime: Actually, it won't do a thing to those that have a traditional loan and have already bought a house as long as they stay where they are at and don't sell. If you bought to flip, you're fvcked. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fxntime: Originally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: Originally Posted By bakkbakk: why are we applauding having to pay banks more instead of homeowners? We are in a housing supply shortage regardless of rates. This just fucks homeowners. Actually, it won't do a thing to those that have a traditional loan and have already bought a house as long as they stay where they are at and don't sell. If you bought to flip, you're fvcked. And that works as long as you keep your job and don’t have to move to make ends meet because your company went kaboom. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:28:23 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RIP-Yataski: Poor millennials just can't catch a break ...This is the break I’ve been waiting for…hoping to buy another foreclosure for cheap like I did last time |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:28:33 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CoconutLaCroix]
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fxntime: Actually, it won't do a thing to those that have a traditional loan and have already bought a house as long as they stay where they are at and don't sell. If you bought to flip, you're fvcked. I hope the pitchforks come out if they try to bailout shitbags like Blackrock. |
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MO, USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:31:13 PM EDT
[#7]
Welp. Glad I locked in low and am not moving anytime soon. Gonna be bumpy for a while.
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:32:03 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CoconutLaCroix]
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By exponentialpi: And that works as long as you keep your job and don't have to move to make ends meet because your company went kaboom. A large portion of remote tech workers who have left places like SFO to bid up prices in other regions work for dogshit perpetually unprofitable zombie companies that are ripe for a good kabooom when their cheap credit life support runs dry That'll be a sight to behold |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:34:29 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: That's probably my favorite type of terrain. Looks like the Colorado National Monument near GJ. Loved that area out west Of course, Colorado nat monument. Don’t want to flex, but it was cheeeep at 220k. BUT I only brought a 20k down payment. I think it was a 5% note, then refinanced at 2%. This has got to be a lousy time to buy. Anyway around buying now, don’t. Prices will follow, hopefully cheap primers are not far behind.  Attached File |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:34:36 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HRoark87: I hate to say it, but I'm thinking about grabbing some puts on the Detroit 3. Low inventory. Fucked supply chain. Rising commodity costs. All in on low mpg vehicles. How long does sticker price + hold up? 90 days |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:45:13 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Low_Country: 90 days Maybe I’ll see a Z06 at sticker… |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:48:41 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DVCER: Of course, Colorado nat monument. Don’t want to flex, but it was cheeeep at 220k. BUT I only brought a 20k down payment. I think it was a 5% note, then refinanced at 2%. This has got to be a lousy time to buy. Anyway around buying now, don’t. Prices will follow, hopefully cheap primers are not far behind. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/857/CBBD549E-803B-4D76-B40A-E97F951E2858_jpe-2322932.JPG Your cat makes me think of hitler… beautiful house and property though! |
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OH, USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:50:04 PM EDT
[#13]
If inflation is 10-15%, are rates at half that really going to make much difference? It'll be interesting to watch it play out.
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:56:26 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By big_aug: If inflation is 10-15%, are rates at half that really going to make much difference? It'll be interesting to watch it play out. Real rates need to be positive to do anything. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:57:01 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By steel_buckeye: Your cat makes me think of hitler… beautiful house and property though! Lil hitler and I will be watching. I think you younger guys will figure out a way to leverage this shit show. I’m all used up, it is your turn.  Attached File |
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PRK
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:57:39 PM EDT
[Last Edit: JEL]
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bakkbakk: I wouldnt say debtors are living beyond their means if they bought a house they could afford during a time of low rates. I understand the rest though Those who were shopping only payments and not thinking principal at all were, especially if they have a demand feature in their mortgages like some of my dumbass coworkers  The worst off are those who view their PRIMARY residence as an investment, RIP |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:58:59 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CoconutLaCroix]
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By big_aug: If inflation is 10-15%, are rates at half that really going to make much difference? It'll be interesting to watch it play out. So higher rates could cause home prices to crater, but the bullshit survey understates the prices on the way down, and we still have fat monthly inflation prints overall in other areas that necessitate the same higher rates that helped smother the housing market to begin with. But the market will figure out where rates truly should be now that the Fed's thumb is no longer on the MBS scale and rates will pop high enough to get us where we need to be |
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PRK
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:59:15 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By big_aug: If inflation is 10-15%, are rates at half that really going to make much difference? It'll be interesting to watch it play out. Inflation is probably more like 40% 
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Posted: 3/22/2022 8:59:59 PM EDT
[#19]
Houses are selling for $150+/ sq ft
New custom homes are $190+/ sq ft How are home prices going to go down if the cost to build is going up? |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:00:06 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JEL: Those who were shopping only payments and not thinking penile at all were, especially if they have a demand feature in their mortgages like some of my dumbass coworkers The worst off are those who view their PRIMARY residence as an investment, RIP Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JEL: Originally Posted By bakkbakk: I wouldnt say debtors are living beyond their means if they bought a house they could afford during a time of low rates. I understand the rest though Those who were shopping only payments and not thinking penile at all were, especially if they have a demand feature in their mortgages like some of my dumbass coworkers The worst off are those who view their PRIMARY residence as an investment, RIP  Attached File |
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USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:01:25 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Low_Country: Curious what your recommendations are? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Low_Country: Originally Posted By Darrellbear: All we're lacking to reproduce the Carter years is double digit interest rates to go along with double digit inflation. We're getting there.  Curious what your recommendations are? As someone who was around back then, I would say keep your thermostat above 75 in the summer, and below 68 in the winter. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:01:26 PM EDT
[#22]
I’m looking for land in the country, been watching the market for a while…. Around here Everything sold at light speed during Covid for asking or slightly above up until a couple months ago. Over the holidays land started remaining on the market for longer and has now started to sell below the crazy asking prices. I didn’t even know rates had risen this year before the fed announcement, but it makes sense.
I’m sitting on my hands for now, it feels like prices are leveling off and might even decline a bit. I hope it’s the right decision! |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:01:30 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hunter8793: Houses are selling for $150+/ sq ft New custom homes are $190+/ sq ft How are home prices going to go down if the cost to build is going up? |
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GA, USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:03:18 PM EDT
[#24]
Good. Enough with this $500,000 starter home crap.
Bring back the $50-100k starter homes |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:03:18 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BuschLatte: This is the break I’ve been waiting for…hoping to buy another foreclosure for cheap like I did last time This, all day long. If you can get approved for a short sale the time is near. It will be salad days for those able to pounce. Military moves always go short in shit times. Possibly, I am not all used up. Good luck young brothers. |
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PRK
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:05:28 PM EDT
[#26]
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:15:39 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: Not all, but a large percentage. I know lots of people overextending themselves on homes right now. People who jumped into a house recently and can't even afford furniture. But they had to buy because it was "now or never" and "prices are never coming back down." So now they have some folding chairs in their living room and a blow up mattress, and are living hand to mouth in a home they can't afford. When they finally go underwater, they'll walk away. And many of them will probably be losing their jobs in the recession that we are almost guaranteed to have now that the yield curve is about to invert. We'll see if the Fed and Govt try to inflate their way out of a recession that was caused by inflation this go around. I have known people who purchased in the hight of the market, went under water for a period and them came out ahead. My opinion (and it is free so not worth much), is that if you can buy a home, make the payment required (a little more if possible), you will sooner or later come out ahead. And in fact a buyer still needs a place to live. So why pay rent on something you are not accruing any equity in? Around here a decent 1Br apartment is $1500. And all that money goes to help some other investor grow. Again, my opinion. YMMV 
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USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:15:51 PM EDT
[#28]
In 2005, I bought my first house, got a 4.5% 30yr loan & people couldn’t believe how my rate was so low…..
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:16:04 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: Because nobody can afford them at higher rates Then no one is building and there goes hundreds of thousands of jobs. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:17:39 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hunter8793: Then no one is building and there goes hundreds of thousands of jobs. Proving my point |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:23:52 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CoconutLaCroix]
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ropwoo: Well, that is an interesting statement. On the other hand, investing in the house and waiting on the furnishings can be a solid way to go. In that, a buyer has invested in a home that will appreciate over time. This is a fact regardless of short term ups and downs. Over the years the property will always be worth more than they paid. I have known people who purchased in the hight of the market, went under water for a period and them came out ahead. My opinion (and it is free so not worth much), is that if you can buy a home, make the payment required (a little more if possible), you will sooner or later come out ahead. And in fact a buyer still needs a place to live. So why pay rent on something you are not accruing any equity in? Around here a decent 1Br apartment is $1500. And all that money goes to help some other investor grow. Again, my opinion. YMMV We'll see how many people are willing to wait. I think a lot of people will bail, especially as job losses mount. The RE investing locusts will definitely bail. And I would say buying a house without having the means to to furnish it beyond a blow up mattress and a few folding chairs is a pretty good indicator that you couldn't really afford the house.. The boom plants the seeds for its future destruction. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:38:36 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hunter8793: Then no one is building and there goes hundreds of thousands of jobs. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hunter8793: Originally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: Because nobody can afford them at higher rates Then no one is building and there goes hundreds of thousands of jobs. With rates rising across the board, job losses are coming. Deleveraging is deflationary. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:40:02 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: Took about 10 years to recover the last go around and that was with copious amounts of MBS purchases by the Fed to drive rates down, which might not be a thing since they're currently tasked with bringing inflation to heel. We'll see how many people are willing to wait. I think a lot of people will bail, especially as job losses mount. The RE investing locusts will definitely bail. And I would say buying a house without having the means to to furnish it beyond a blow up mattress and a few folding chairs is a pretty good indicator that you couldn't really afford the house.. The boom plants the seeds for its future destruction. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: Originally Posted By ropwoo: Well, that is an interesting statement. On the other hand, investing in the house and waiting on the furnishings can be a solid way to go. In that, a buyer has invested in a home that will appreciate over time. This is a fact regardless of short term ups and downs. Over the years the property will always be worth more than they paid. I have known people who purchased in the hight of the market, went under water for a period and them came out ahead. My opinion (and it is free so not worth much), is that if you can buy a home, make the payment required (a little more if possible), you will sooner or later come out ahead. And in fact a buyer still needs a place to live. So why pay rent on something you are not accruing any equity in? Around here a decent 1Br apartment is $1500. And all that money goes to help some other investor grow. Again, my opinion. YMMV We'll see how many people are willing to wait. I think a lot of people will bail, especially as job losses mount. The RE investing locusts will definitely bail. And I would say buying a house without having the means to to furnish it beyond a blow up mattress and a few folding chairs is a pretty good indicator that you couldn't really afford the house.. The boom plants the seeds for its future destruction. In that time, furnishings can be acquired, improvements can be made, and the benefit of ownership over renting can be realised. I think the concept of "folding chairs and blow-up mattresses" is hyperbole, at least I hope it is. I know when I purchased my first house, I had mostly basic Ikea furnishings and cardboard end tables. That changed over time and was worth the sacrifice. Again YMMV |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:42:11 PM EDT
[Last Edit: _200mph]
[#34]
2008, the sequel.
My advice to everyone including myself is to save up some emergency money just to be safe. You want to have 6 months of spending money in case we have layoffs this time next year. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:44:29 PM EDT
[#35]
Hopefully this will allow building materials availability and price to stabilize.
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:51:23 PM EDT
[#36]
All the FED will have to do is say “ Maybe we will not raise rates six times, two will be enough for now”.
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:53:58 PM EDT
[#37]
Just wait. It's coming.
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:54:37 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: So now they have some folding chairs in their living room and a blow up mattress Are you peeping in around the sheets I have tacked up over the windows? |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:56:27 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CheckEngine]
[#39]
I waiting for boomers and gen x that just bought a home in the last two years that need to move immediately, cry.
lulz and such. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:56:31 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By _200mph: 2008, the sequel. My advice to everyone including myself is to save up some emergency money just to be safe. You want to have 6 months of spending money in case we have layoffs this time next year. That was an entirely different scenario and mostly due to no doc loans. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:59:25 PM EDT
[#41]
Doublewide on 2.2 acres.
Only $415K The best part is that's it's at the edge of the downwind leg for the landing pattern of the SuperHornets. 
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Posted: 3/22/2022 9:59:55 PM EDT
[#42]
Do you hear that sound?
That's the sound of the air coming out of yet another housing bubble. This one lays squarely at the feet of the Fed. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 10:01:49 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bigt61: Good. Enough with this $500,000 starter home crap. Bring back the $50-100k starter homes  |
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USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 10:03:29 PM EDT
[#44]
Originally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage hit 4.72% on Tuesday, moving 26 basis points higher since just Friday, according to Mortgage News Daily. As a result of the recent spike in rates, economists are now lowering their home sales forecasts for this year. Most estimates at the end of last year had the average 30-year mortgage rate hitting 4.5% by the end of 2022, but the war in Ukraine, rising oil prices and inflation have all lit a fire under interest rates. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/mortgage-rates-are-surging-faster-than-expected-prompting-economists-to-lower-their-home-sales-forecasts.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FObNrFEXMAcOhuv?format=jpg&name=small And the Fed hasn't even ceased their $40 billion monthly MBS purchases yet. That fully ends starting in April.... Aaaand they're possibly going to start selling the $2.9 Trillion they already own, which will cause rates to pop even more. Rates were 2.7% 6 months ago. Going from 2.7% to 4.7% just added about $500 to the monthly payment on a median home for the avg prospective home buyer. Things are starting to look yucky for the housing bubble. Good. Time for some cheeep real estate. |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 10:03:57 PM EDT
[Last Edit: _200mph]
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Off-the-Grid: That was an entirely different scenario and mostly due to no doc loans. IMO, it started with the left-tards in government mandating that banks make loans to people who shouldn’t qualify for loans. That turned in banks finding ways to offload risk. Once they found ways to offload risk, the party started. This time is different, but still seeming concerning. everyone just refinanced. If homes drop in price by 25%, what percentage of people will be underwater? Of the people underwater, what percentage just walk, leaving the banks with the loss? Then when a bank fails and we have Kamala running the country, will she bail out ‘evil wallstreet’? If not, it’s a Great Depression. Then again I’m just fucking around, I have no idea what’s going to happen. |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 10:08:32 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fxntime: Actually, it won't do a thing to those that have a traditional loan and have already bought a house as long as they stay where they are at and don't sell. If you bought to flip, you're fvcked. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fxntime: Originally Posted By ContrarianIndicator: Originally Posted By bakkbakk: why are we applauding having to pay banks more instead of homeowners? We are in a housing supply shortage regardless of rates. This just fucks homeowners. Actually, it won't do a thing to those that have a traditional loan and have already bought a house as long as they stay where they are at and don't sell. If you bought to flip, you're fvcked. Inflation cranking prices on everything else will wreck people on tight budgets, resulting in foreclosures. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 10:08:48 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JVD: I get the feeling I won't be refinancing for quite some time. It's going to be a crazy ride How could you have missed it last year? 2.25%… |
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Posted: 3/22/2022 10:10:29 PM EDT
[#48]
The house prices are nuts everything is over valued the rates rising should help crash the values and bring prices back where they should be.
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Posted: 3/22/2022 10:14:24 PM EDT
[#49]
I wonder if a good chunk of “remote” workers who moved away and bought at inflated prices will be cut loose/outsourced.
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OR, USA
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Posted: 3/22/2022 10:16:06 PM EDT
[#50]
my interest rate in 97 was 14.9 now its 2.5 so 4.7 is still looking good
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