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Posted: 7/25/2018 2:01:53 PM EDT
https://www.dailywire.com/news/33568/polls-republicans-trailing-badly-congressional-ben-shapiro

"While President Trump’s approval rating continues to maintain his record highs, two new polls show a tremendous gap opening between Democrats and Republicans on the generic Congressional ballot. Quinnipiac and Kaiser both have Democrats ahead by 12 points; the Real Clear Politics poll average places Democrats ahead by 7.8 points."

UPDATE: Democrats have a 75 percent chance of retaking the house

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Primary turnout shattered records for the Democrats

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/aug/16/democrats-shatter-primary-turnout-records-bank-ant/

UPDATE II: Cruz only ahead one point in Texas, well with Margin of error

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/403786-poll-cruz-leads-orourke-by-one-point-in-texas-senate-race

UPDATE III: More evidence Senate will go blue

https://stoehr.substack.com/p/we-think-the-senate-will-go-blue

UPDATE IV:

Gillum leads Desantis by four points in Florida

UPDATE V: Texans start showing up to the polls.  Cruz leads Beto by nine

UPDATE VI: Gillum up 9 points
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:02:44 PM EDT
[#1]
Hillary 98%
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:02:45 PM EDT
[#2]
Hillary in a landslide
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:03:45 PM EDT
[#3]
Trump is dropping out any day!
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:04:19 PM EDT
[#4]
Oh so we have a blue wave again?
Funny, when the blue wave went away the headlines disappeared.




Never forget, Megyn Kelly was going to be the next big star in news, she and a few other NeverTrumpers were telling us that because Orange Hitler said the Pword, Hillary is focusing on the Senate races.

11/09/16 Megyn Kelly about to cry on AIR as TRUMP takes Lead
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:05:04 PM EDT
[#5]
We need to motivate conservatives to get out and vote.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:05:08 PM EDT
[#6]
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:05:11 PM EDT
[#7]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Hillary in a landslide
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Hillary in a landslide
Someone needs to check the numbers. At some point they might actually give us the correct ones....

Quoted:
We need to motivate conservatives to get out and vote.
Either way, this. The bigger the win the better it feels and more shit you can talk...
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:06:27 PM EDT
[#8]
i don't trust the polls, but i wouldn't dismiss the potential for these numbers either.

the left is *motivated*.

the only real question is, how many people are "on the left"?
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:06:44 PM EDT
[#9]
When the only thing you have left is lies, might as well keep lying.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:08:49 PM EDT
[#10]
Skeptical of all polls and I think it will have only gotten worse since the election as Rs checkout or intentionally mislead any polling samples.

However, I'll take them seriously and make sure I hit every election.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:10:11 PM EDT
[#11]
looks like the propagandists are gearing up for midterms with their totally unbiased and balanced sampling polls...
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:10:49 PM EDT
[#12]
The 2016 election and its revealing of DNC-directed weaponized polling discredited and should have destroyed the entire polling industry, but somehow here we are.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:11:29 PM EDT
[#13]
He'll drop out any minute now
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:13:41 PM EDT
[#14]
The Quinnipiac poll always gives Trump and the GOP their worst numbers; I contend that the sole reason they do the poll is to pull up the Democrat number in the RCP averages.

Having said that: this will be a Democrat year, and just how "Democrat" will depend on who shows up to vote, and as importantly, where. Big turnout in Democrat-represented districts are meaningless in terms of control of the Congress.

My own guess is the Democrat lead in the generic ballot is closer to five points and I saw some numbers yesterday that showed the margin even narrower. If the Democrat lead in the generic poll (they almost always lead, even when they are losing) is below six, the GOP narrowly keeps the House; above that, and it's Speaker Pelosi again.

The Senate will remain under GOP control.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:15:05 PM EDT
[#15]
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:16:03 PM EDT
[#16]
Just make sure you all get your asses out and vote, and drag your family and friends with you  (unless they're liberal)
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:16:06 PM EDT
[#17]
In this thread we see Arfcom ignoring how pissed off and motivated the Democrats are while Republicans are in still in a "We President Now" circle jerk and laughing because they think Republicans have it in the bag and really don't even need to show up to vote because the polls are always wrong.  

The Democrats are very pissed and motivated.  The DNC made key plays earlier this year to position specific candidates in key races to capitalize on the number of seats they win.  Historically the party in power looses 30 House seats in the first mid-term election after a Presidential party change.  In addition to putting key candidates in place the Democrats have been perfecting their social media game and have those resources already in place.  Remember a few months back when the site was flooded with disruptor accounts?  Those were just the fringe accounts designed to push the limits and monitor the response.

Even if the polls showed Republicans with huge leads across the board, assume the race is going to be close and the Democrats have a good chance at winning.  If your primaries are over, then find your Republican candidates, attend a fund raising event, volunteer to help them knock on doors or make phone calls, and get on the list for a yard sign.  If your primary hasn't happened yet then make sure you vote so the best candidate wins and people will have someone they can feel they can support.

Voter turn out is going to determine who controls the House.  Laughing at the polls and acting is Republicans don't need to do anything is the wrong approach and it will cost us seats.  Midterm elections only get about 40% voter turn out.  Meaning the people most upset are the people most determine to get to the polls and vote.  That is hands down the Democrats right now.  Republicans need to show up in force and vote, not take it easy because "we are winning".  That winning ends if the Democrats take the House.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:16:19 PM EDT
[#18]
Polls in this case are trying to do two things. First...decide for folks that have a hard time deciding to "get behind a winner" and second, dissuade people on the other side from voting because "we are not going to win anyway".

Either way it is just propaganda supporting the political wing of the same communist party that the propaganda wing (MSM) belongs to.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:16:25 PM EDT
[#19]
Who needs polls?    I expect record-breaking shenanigans on their side, and a series of deliberate fuckups by the RNC (legitimate rape x87)
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:18:05 PM EDT
[#20]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
We need to motivate conservatives to get out and vote.
View Quote
If just on principal regardless of blue wave; local issues, gun control bills, etc.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:20:04 PM EDT
[#21]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
We need to motivate conservatives to get out and vote.
View Quote
This, the left is really pissed and will be showing up to vote. We need to do the same.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:20:46 PM EDT
[#22]
Every president for the last 100 years has lost seats in congress during the first midterm.....except two

Dont be surprised if it happens again
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:21:08 PM EDT
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
In this thread we see Arfcom ignoring how pissed off and motivated the Democrats are while Republicans are in still in a "We President Now" circle jerk and laughing because they think Republicans have it in the bag and really don't even need to show up to vote because the polls are always wrong.  

The Democrats are very pissed and motivated.  The DNC made key plays earlier this year to position specific candidates in key races to capitalize on the number of seats they win.  Historically the party in power looses 30 House seats in the first mid-term election after a Presidential party change.  In addition to putting key candidates in place the Democrats have been perfecting their social media game and have those resources already in place.  Remember a few months back when the site was flooded with disruptor accounts?  Those were just the fringe accounts designed to push the limits and monitor the response.

Even if the polls showed Republicans with huge leads across the board, assume the race is going to be close and the Democrats have a good chance at winning.  If your primaries are over, then find your Republican candidates, attend a fund raising event, volunteer to help them knock on doors or make phone calls, and get on the list for a yard sign.  If your primary hasn't happened yet then make sure you vote so the best candidate wins and people will have someone they can feel they can support.

Voter turn out is going to determine who controls the House.  Laughing at the polls and acting is Republicans don't need to do anything is the wrong approach and it will cost us seats.  Midterm elections only get about 40% voter turn out.  Meaning the people most upset are the people most determine to get to the polls and vote.  That is hands down the Democrats right now.  Republicans need to show up in force and vote, not take it easy because "we are winning".  That winning ends if the Democrats take the House.
View Quote
10/10.  Awesome post and true.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:25:31 PM EDT
[#24]
Here is my opinion.

After Scott Walker won in Wisconsin and started on his agenda the left started a meltdown.  They occupied the capital building for over 30 days. They shouted shame shame shame at anyone connected to the GOP. They started a bullshit John Doe investigation against Scott Walker and republican donors (sound familar???)   Many dems fled the state so no votes could be called.  Scott Walker won the recall and the republicans defended against other recalls. Scott Walker then expanded the republican majority against all of the polling data.  The left's meltdown continued until their backs were broken.

Their antics pissed so many people off in the middle that they stopped voting democrat and started voting republican.  Wisconsin went red for Trump.

The democrats have been runnning their anti-Scott Walker Wisconsin playbook against Trump and took it national.  It is going to backfire on them nationally just like it did in Wisconsin.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:27:22 PM EDT
[#25]
Trump knew he had a chance of winning due to state level polls.  That's why he campaigned non-stop in the lead up.

I'd be worried.  Swire is right.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:29:29 PM EDT
[#26]
Quinnipiac

They had Hillary up like 12 points going into election might. They're such a fucking joke.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:30:34 PM EDT
[#27]
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:30:59 PM EDT
[#28]
Record low unemployment and rising wages after inflation.

Democrats may take seats but those are strong headwinds to fight for a blue wave.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:31:15 PM EDT
[#29]
The opposition party usually makes gains in mid-term elections.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:31:40 PM EDT
[#30]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Trump knew he had a chance of winning due to state level polls.  That's why he campaigned non-stop in the lead up.

I'd be worried.  Swire is right.
View Quote
Of course we should be worried. Traditionally the party not in power are the ones motivated to vote in midterms elections. And right now the ones motived are the ones attacking Trump's star in the Hollywood Walk of Fame with pickaxes, throwing excrement at Trump-supporting coffee houses and shooting up congressional republican baseball practices.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:32:46 PM EDT
[#31]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quinnipiac

They had Hillary up like 12 points going into election might. They're such a fucking joke.
View Quote
It's even the same "generic matchup" antics.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:33:14 PM EDT
[#32]
When the question being asked is "How likely are you to vote for the Democrats, over the fascists Republicans?", you get the response you want.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:33:23 PM EDT
[#33]
We need to spread this around and make it known to dems so they dont need to go out and vote.

They already have it in the bag
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:33:54 PM EDT
[#34]
We've got a ways to go yet. The campaign ads showing Dems being retards haven't even started yet.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:34:47 PM EDT
[#35]
How many graveyards they visit to get that poll??
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:37:34 PM EDT
[#36]
Collusion for poll tampering...
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:37:47 PM EDT
[#37]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
We still have a long time until November.

If anything, having stories like this help suppress the Dem vote, IMO.
View Quote
they'll mod the results of new polls to show closer races towards vote day to manipulate the turnout. This shit means nothing 3+ months out. Expect an October outrage to inflame the Left.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:42:52 PM EDT
[#38]
Here's some good news.

https://www.weeklystandard.com/andrew-egger/poll-josh-hawley-now-leads-claire-mccaskill-in-missouri-senate-race
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:46:00 PM EDT
[#39]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
In this thread we see Arfcom ignoring how pissed off and motivated the Democrats are while Republicans are in still in a "We President Now" circle jerk and laughing because they think Republicans have it in the bag and really don't even need to show up to vote because the polls are always wrong.  

The Democrats are very pissed and motivated.  The DNC made key plays earlier this year to position specific candidates in key races to capitalize on the number of seats they win.  Historically the party in power looses 30 House seats in the first mid-term election after a Presidential party change.  In addition to putting key candidates in place the Democrats have been perfecting their social media game and have those resources already in place.  Remember a few months back when the site was flooded with disruptor accounts?  Those were just the fringe accounts designed to push the limits and monitor the response.

Even if the polls showed Republicans with huge leads across the board, assume the race is going to be close and the Democrats have a good chance at winning.  If your primaries are over, then find your Republican candidates, attend a fund raising event, volunteer to help them knock on doors or make phone calls, and get on the list for a yard sign.  If your primary hasn't happened yet then make sure you vote so the best candidate wins and people will have someone they can feel they can support.

Voter turn out is going to determine who controls the House.  Laughing at the polls and acting is Republicans don't need to do anything is the wrong approach and it will cost us seats.  Midterm elections only get about 40% voter turn out.  Meaning the people most upset are the people most determine to get to the polls and vote.  That is hands down the Democrats right now.  Republicans need to show up in force and vote, not take it easy because "we are winning".  That winning ends if the Democrats take the House.
View Quote
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:47:01 PM EDT
[#40]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
We need to motivate conservatives to get out and vote.
View Quote
Nonsense. The polls are fake. What we really need to do is share stupid porta shitter memes. Surely a D controllled House won’t make that much difference to the MAGA agenda.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:50:45 PM EDT
[#41]
Well, they ain't always wrong...

Right now, American politics is in such a state of flux, I don't think any polls can be trusted!
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:52:01 PM EDT
[#42]
FPNI (with authority.)

Been in every eligible election since I was old enough to vote.

God willing, won't miss the next one either.

Carter was going to beat Reagan.

Dukakis was going to beat Bush.

Gore was going to beat Bush.

John (Swiftboat) Kerry was going to beat Bush.

FHRC was going to beat Trump.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 2:54:54 PM EDT
[#43]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quinnipiac

They had Hillary up like 12 points going into election might. They're such a fucking joke.
View Quote
I will PayPal you $100 if you can post evidence of a quinnipac poll showing Clinton +12 in a general election poll within 72 hours of Election Day.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 3:00:21 PM EDT
[#44]
As a VA resident, we weren't supposed to almost lose the state house last year.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 3:00:31 PM EDT
[#45]
I wouldn't discount it.

Democrat voters have lost their damned minds. They are so wound up that they can no longer think or reason properly. All they know is what CNN tells them and they will vote accordingly.

Republicans will have to fight for this one or they will get clobbered.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 3:00:52 PM EDT
[#46]
LOLZ

These people are setting themselves up for another let down and ummmm Russia moment.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 3:01:59 PM EDT
[#47]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
We need to motivate conservatives to get out and vote.
View Quote
Correct.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 3:02:04 PM EDT
[#48]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
FPNI (with authority.)

FHRC was going to beat Trump.
View Quote
The only reason she didn't is because (barely) enough pissed off people knew what was on the line and got out to vote.

Never believe your own hype. FHRC did and look what happened to her. Two time loser!

I don't want a razor thin majority that flip flops on whether they want to MAGA or not. I want to MAGA the Dems in the ass until they tap out and cease to exist as a political force.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 3:03:06 PM EDT
[#49]
Yea we have Kathy Manning running against Ted Budd.

Ted is a gun shop owner and if you look at Kathy's Facebook it has very little traffic on it compared to Congressman Budd.

Ted hits all the local areas and always comes to our Veterans Day dinner and is a pro gun pro military guy.

Kathy is some old ugly trust fund lady that is really not very likable.

Sorta like a Hillary 2.0, I just don't see her doing well even with the Greensboro vote.

Ted will crush her old crusty liberal ass in the debates.
Link Posted: 7/25/2018 3:03:09 PM EDT
[#50]
Maybe Trump is doing well but the GOPe because they are a bunch of do nothing, never Trump, obstructionist retards?

How about get off your asses and pass some legislation to help out the POTUS.
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