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Based on what I've heard from all the west-wing staffers who left last year, there's a good chance O will not run for a second term.
I've heard this as well. Apparently he's miserable and hates being President. He ran for the sole purpose of winning.
I hope this is the reason he wouldn't run. If it's not, I would be very concerned that there is something brewing that he is aware of, and it is unable to be controlled/corrected and he doesn't want it to happen on his watch.
My impression is that he really doesn't like the job. It's just too much much responsibility, he's forced to deal with too much reality, and absolutely nobody appreciates the difficulty. Even DU has turned on him. POTUS turns men grey and this is a very difficult time for the nation.
I think he liked the idea of being the savior of mankind a lot more than the actual work of saving stuff.
I also think his run to the middle was more than a calculated political move. Being in the position, getting the briefings, I think his certainty has been shaken and he's just trying not to fuck up too badly now.
It's not like he can rely on his VP to handle stuff either...