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Posted: 10/18/2004 3:20:18 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/18/2004 4:34:40 AM EST by HiramRanger]
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 3:44:40 AM EST
Heck, whip out a crayon and make up something! You'll fool at least 40% of this crowd.
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 4:24:22 AM EST
I thought a new poll has Bush up by a significant amount in Oregon???????

GunLvr
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 4:35:15 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 4:37:06 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/18/2004 4:43:12 AM EST by Skammy]

Why post something questionable then...?

from electoral-vote.com faq :

"I hate this site. Is there one run by a Republican?
Yes. Take a look at electionprojection.com. It is strongly biased in favor of George Bush."

Just wondering why it wouldn't have a question of the opposite..?
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 4:37:54 AM EST
Here is today's poll rap. Except for Zogby, Bush is trending upward.

www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 4:43:03 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 4:44:53 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 4:49:30 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:

Originally Posted By Skammy:

Why post something questionable then...?



Because there is no other site that offers as much information in such a succinct fashion, even if they selectively choose which they use. Its what we started with, its what we will end with... and we will dissect it daily.



Some would say the Iraqi information minister provided great daily information too.

I just hope you're reliance on this nutsack every day isn't going to discourage folks who don't have the time or the inclination to read several pages of "dissection" and who decide to stay home on election day because you and the E-P guy have convinced him GWBush will lose anyway.

Link Posted: 10/18/2004 4:54:45 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 4:58:35 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 5:09:52 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 5:18:10 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 5:28:24 AM EST

Originally Posted By eodtech2000:
Here is today's poll rap. Except for Zogby, Bush is trending upward.

www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html



Good you're the new bearer of good news.

What part of "shoot the messenger" does HiramRanger not understand?
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 5:37:08 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 5:38:48 AM EST
45
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 5:44:15 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 5:48:44 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
LOL... omg... this guy has completely lost it... this is his final projection!

OK, I might have to stop talking about this guy at all... Read his expose for the day... Claims the ONLY new poll that shows any movement is NH... conveniently by a Dem polling firm and conviently gives it to Kerry. He ignores Rasmussen in Florida because that would break his polling "tie" and give it to Bush...



This assclown actually thinks Virginia is going to be dark blue for Kerry and that North Carolina will go for him as well... What a tool!



Also note that he's changed his polling method for the projected map to benefit Kerry... This guy's a idiot...
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 5:49:09 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 5:50:29 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:

Originally Posted By Chaingun:

Originally Posted By eodtech2000:
Here is today's poll rap. Except for Zogby, Bush is trending upward.

www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html



Good you're the new bearer of good news.

What part of "shoot the messenger" does HiramRanger not understand?



What part of, "if you don't like my threads make a constructive contribution rather than your bellyaching" do you not understand? I provide information both welcome and unwelcome to our side and analyze it. If you want to be spoonfed your daily dose of talking points with no exposure to the information that many people are looking at, go to freerepublic.com. If we weren't dissecting this site and others which propogate lies, people might well see it and walk away thinking its truth.

Fucking damned if I do, damned if I don't. If I don't have the information posted first thing in the morning I get bitched at. If I post it, I get bitched at. Well here is the deal guys. This thread will be here every morning from now until November 2nd. You don't like it, don't open it. You want to contribute, you are more than welcome to. You want to bellyache like a little girl... take it elsewhere.



Hiram,

Lest you think you are unappreciated...

THANK YOU for posting this every AM, and thank you for sharing your insights into these polls with those of us who are less knowledgeable.
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 5:56:40 AM EST
Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.



Whoever wins 2 of the 3, wins the election.

-LS
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 6:07:24 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 6:29:01 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 6:31:05 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:

Originally Posted By longshot_va:
Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.



Whoever wins 2 of the 3, wins the election.

-LS



Not true, if Bush wins two he wins... There are several scenarios that point to Kerry having to win all three to ensure victory.

yup, the President can actually lose PA and OH, or FL and PA and still win the election.

as for electoral-vote, i stopped going there weeks ago, there's just no point anymore, it's like getting predictions from DU. i check realclear and electionprojection daily.
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 6:31:32 AM EST
Where is the option in your poll for "Yes, the only polls that matter will be the ones on 11/2"?
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 6:31:34 AM EST
The ONLY "poll" that is important is the one that will take place on November 2, 2004. In that single, all important poll, I have faith that my fellow Americans will have, by that time, awakened from their lassitude and will have finally recognized Monsieur Kerry for what he is. Having had that epiphany, they will then connect the dots and recogniize the very real theat to our Constitution and to our very existance that our mortal enemies pose. It will be at this point in their awakening that our fellow citizens do the right thing and exercise their enfranchisement to vote for President George W. Bush.

God Bless the United States of America!
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 6:35:05 AM EST
This map is kind of like the beheading videos, I don't really want to see it, but I must know whats going on around me.
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 6:35:40 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct18.png

Kerry 257 Bush 247



There is a SIGNIFICANT error in the results. It should be Bush 247, Kerry 247, as NADER was omitted from the WI results, and he IS on the ballot here.

Nader WILL get 1-2% of the Kerry vote.

EV.com has Kerry 47, Bush 46, and used a poll with no Nader.

With Nader it would have been Kerry 46, Bush 46.
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 6:39:41 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 6:54:21 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 7:28:04 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 7:42:28 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 1:12:57 PM EST
Hiram, no way should you stop this thread. If folks want to be defeatist let them. Your not here to be their cheerleader.

One thing the naysayers need to remember is Stolen Honor. This is playing in most of the swing state and more importantly in the swing states taht really matter. I'm tellin you guys this is going to have an impact of 1 or 2 points. I guarantee it. I watched this yesterday and it's devastating.

Plus who knows what else is going to come out on Kerry. Rove says he has two surprises, one I believe is Stolen Honor, what is the other.

Also for the naysayers look at how the polls are trending. The majority are RISING, not stagnant, and not falling. Bush is in a good position here. Bush is doing better with women and is chipping into the black vote. I believe yesterday someone said that Kerry's support with blacks was down to 75%. Gore had 90% He is also making BIG strides into the hispanic vote.

If this changes next week you can panic if it makes you feel better. I think we will see the race open up in the last week of the election. One of these guys will win by a solid margin. I don't think it will be Kerry.
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 1:59:10 PM EST
I think Bush will get 32, Kerry 19 (including DC):

Bush: AL, AK, AR, AZ, CO, FL, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, , MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WI, WV, WY

Kerry: CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IA, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 2:17:37 PM EST

Originally Posted By ASUsax:
Hiram,

Lest you think you are unappreciated...

THANK YOU for posting this every AM, and thank you for sharing your insights into these polls with those of us who are less knowledgeable.



Add me to the Amen Chorus on this one.

I find your insight to be very helpful in deciphering all these polls and websites, and I find your dedication to speaking the facts regardless of the trends to be very reassuring, especially since our man is looking good!

Keep it up, buddy, and thanks!
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 2:28:53 PM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
This assclown actually thinks Virginia is going to be dark blue for Kerry and that North Carolina will go for him as well... What a tool!

There is NO WAY IN THE WORLD that NC will go Kerry. There are only tiny pockets of Kerry support in predictable places. Take that to the bank.
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 2:32:19 PM EST
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 2:47:41 PM EST

Originally Posted By Carbine_Man:

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
This assclown actually thinks Virginia is going to be dark blue for Kerry and that North Carolina will go for him as well... What a tool!

There is NO WAY IN THE WORLD that NC will go Kerry. There are only tiny pockets of Kerry support in predictable places. Take that to the bank.



Thank God, seeing as I am soon to become a NC resident!
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 2:50:58 PM EST
polls are not right ever. I can't see how these polls ever make it in the news. They aren't accurate at all and sometimes bias. In 1984 Reagan was in a tight race in the poles but it was a landside election.
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 3:01:30 PM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:

Originally Posted By longshot_va:
Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.



Whoever wins 2 of the 3, wins the election.

-LS



Not true, if Bush wins two he wins... There are several scenarios that point to Kerry having to win all three to ensure victory.





You heard it here first, Bush will flip New Jersey.

When this happens, my electoral tallying comrades, what affect will this have on the Big 3? (PA, OH, FL)
If he carries FL, but loses PA and OH, can we still win?

Sheesh, this shit is making my head hurt just thinking about it.
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 3:12:28 PM EST
TheHappyBlaster, i sure hope you are right.

Lori (wife and unemployed pastry chef) is back in community college to get her teaching certificate. after class today she and the psy. prof were talking. needless to say, the prof is 100% for the 'johns'. figures. wife did not say anything about guns.....yet.

be well
maxwell
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 3:40:24 PM EST
Keep putting it up every day, please.

It is fun to compare his results and inspires us to work harder.
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 3:45:03 PM EST

Originally Posted By mpearcex:
polls are not right ever. I can't see how these polls ever make it in the news. They aren't accurate at all and sometimes bias. In 1984 Reagan was in a tight race in the poles but it was a landside election.



My guess is that you are talking national polls. Reagan's popular vote margin wasn't nearly as great as his electorial vote margin.

Looking at state polls and predicting the electorial vote is way more interesting than looking at national level polls.
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 7:18:53 PM EST
I voted for your last choice - though I ascribe Sgt’s dementia to pain meds, not a crack pipe!

Let me add that I’d like to see these daily threads continued.

Granted, the guy who does electoral-vote.com (who wasn’t too bad a few weeks ago) seems to be developing a case of rabies.

Still, this thread makes a good meeting point for discussions of poll numbers.
Link Posted: 10/18/2004 7:21:14 PM EST

Originally Posted By LWilde:
The ONLY "poll" that is important is the one that will take place on November 2, 2004. In that single, all important poll, I have faith that my fellow Americans will have, by that time, awakened from their lassitude and will have finally recognized Monsieur Kerry for what he is. Having had that epiphany, they will then connect the dots and recogniize the very real theat to our Constitution and to our very existance that our mortal enemies pose. It will be at this point in their awakening that our fellow citizens do the right thing and exercise their enfranchisement to vote for President George W. Bush.

God Bless the United States of America!



What he said...
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