October 18 Electoral Map

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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - October 18 Electoral Map

Posted: 10/18/2004 4:20:18 AM EDT

Kerry 257 Bush 247

Posted: 10/18/2004 4:44:40 AM EDT

[#1]

Heck, whip out a crayon and make up something! You'll fool at least 40% of this crowd.

Posted: 10/18/2004 5:24:22 AM EDT

[#2]

I thought a new poll has Bush up by a significant amount in Oregon???????

GunLvr

Posted: 10/18/2004 5:35:15 AM EDT

[#3]

Quoted:
I thought a new poll has Bush up by a significant amount in Oregon???????

GunLvr

You expect him to tell the truth?

Posted: 10/18/2004 5:37:06 AM EDT

[#4]

Why post something questionable then...?

from electoral-vote.com faq :

"I hate this site. Is there one run by a Republican?
Yes. Take a look at electionprojection.com. It is strongly biased in favor of George Bush."

Just wondering why it wouldn't have a question of the opposite..?

Posted: 10/18/2004 5:37:54 AM EDT

[#5]

Here is today's poll rap. Except for Zogby, Bush is trending upward.

www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Posted: 10/18/2004 5:43:03 AM EDT

[#6]

Quoted:

Why post something questionable then...?

Because there is no other site that offers as much information in such a succinct fashion, even if they selectively choose which they use. Its what we started with, its what we will end with... and we will dissect it daily.

Posted: 10/18/2004 5:44:53 AM EDT

[#7]

Quoted:
Here is today's poll rap. Except for Zogby, Bush is trending upward.

www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Rolling averages tend to trend downward over a weekend for Republicans. By midweek it will be back up. Republicans tend to have more financial means than the average democrat voter and thus are out and about during the weekend, not around the home to answer calls from pollsters.

Posted: 10/18/2004 5:49:30 AM EDT

[#8]

Quoted:
Quoted:

Why post something questionable then...?

Because there is no other site that offers as much information in such a succinct fashion, even if they selectively choose which they use. Its what we started with, its what we will end with... and we will dissect it daily.

Some would say the Iraqi information minister provided great daily information too.

I just hope you're reliance on this nutsack every day isn't going to discourage folks who don't have the time or the inclination to read several pages of "dissection" and who decide to stay home on election day because you and the E-P guy have convinced him GWBush will lose anyway.

Posted: 10/18/2004 5:54:45 AM EDT

[#9]

LOL... omg... this guy has completely lost it... this is his final projection!

OK, I might have to stop talking about this guy at all... Read his expose for the day... Claims the ONLY new poll that shows any movement is NH... conveniently by a Dem polling firm and conviently gives it to Kerry. He ignores Rasmussen in Florida because that would break his polling "tie" and give it to Bush...

This assclown actually thinks Virginia is going to be dark blue for Kerry and that North Carolina will go for him as well... What a tool!

Posted: 10/18/2004 5:58:35 AM EDT

[#10]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:

Why post something questionable then...?

Because there is no other site that offers as much information in such a succinct fashion, even if they selectively choose which they use. Its what we started with, its what we will end with... and we will dissect it daily.

Some would say the Iraqi information minister provided great daily information too.

I just hope you're reliance on this nutsack every day isn't going to discourage folks who don't have the time or the inclination to read several pages of "dissection" and who decide to stay home on election day because you and the E-P guy have convinced him GWBush will lose anyway.

Oh give me a fucking break. Who the hell do you think is going to just say fuck it... some democrat run projection site *gasp* says Kerry is going to win... Read the first page here alone, the ripping has already begun as to this site. Don't like the thread, don't read it... And your chicken little the sky is falling mentality is the real problem, not discussing what some democratic assclown is deluding himself and his followers with.

Hell, this guy is our best friend. His final projection is so fucked up that many dems might see it and say no need to vote, its in the bag.

Posted: 10/18/2004 6:09:52 AM EDT

[#11]

Iowa Political Futures Market... Big Mo for Bush

Posted: 10/18/2004 6:18:10 AM EDT

[#12]

From today's NY Times...

The Lowest Blow
By WILLIAM SAFIRE

Published: October 18, 2004

Washington

The memoir about the Kerry-Edwards campaign that will be the best seller will reveal the debate rehearsal aimed at focusing national attention on the fact that Vice President Cheney has a daughter who is a lesbian.

That this twice-delivered low blow was deliberate is indisputable. The first shot was taken by John Edwards, seizing a moderator's opening to smarmily compliment the Cheneys for loving their openly gay daughter, Mary. The vice president thanked him and yielded the remaining 80 seconds of his time; obviously it was not a diversion he was willing to prolong.

Until that moment, only political junkies knew that a member of the Cheney family serving on the campaign staff was homosexual. The vice president, to show it was no secret or anything his family was ashamed of, had referred to it briefly twice this year, but the press - respecting family privacy - had properly not made it a big deal. The percentage of voters aware of Mary Cheney's sexual orientation was tiny.

But Edwards's answer in the vice-presidential debate raised that percentage. Because Cheney refused to react and the media did not see the spotlight on lesbianism as part of a political plan, the opening shot worked.

Emboldened, members of Kerry's debate preparation team made Mary Cheney's private life the centerpiece of their answer to the question, especially worrisome to them, about same-sex marriage. Kerry was prepped to insert her sexuality into his rehearsed answer: "If you were to talk to Dick Cheney's daughter, who is a lesbian. ..."

But in this second time around, the gratuitous insertion of Cheney's daughter into an answer slipping around a hot-button social issue revealed that it was part of a deliberate Kerry campaign strategy.

One purpose was to drive a wedge between the Republican running mates. President Bush supports a constitutional amendment limiting marriage to a union of a man and a woman; Cheney has long been on record favoring state option, but always adds that the president sets administration policy. That rare divergence of views is hardly embarrassing.

The sleazier purpose of the Kerry-Edwards spotlight on Mary Cheney is to confuse and dismay Bush supporters who believe that same-sex marriage is wrong, to suggest that Bush is as "soft on same-sex" as Kerry is, and thereby to reduce a Bush core constituency's eagerness to go to the polls.

The pro-Kerry columnist Margaret Carlson put her finger on it, finding that Kerry and Edwards "realize that discussing Mary Cheney is a no-lose proposition: It highlights the hypocrisy of the Bush-Cheney position to Democrats while simultaneously alerting evangelicals to the fact that the Cheneys have an actual gay person in their household whom they apparently aren't trying to convert or cure." (Italics mine.)

After the outspoken Lynne Cheney blasted this unsought intrusion of her daughter's private life as "a cheap and tawdry trick," the Kerry campaign hustled forward John Edwards's wife to charge that such motherly outrage "indicates a certain degree of shame with respect to her daughter's sexual preferences."

Worse than insensitive, that shot was off message, peeling the veneer off the Kerry-Edwards justification for making Mary famous: their oleaginous claim that, gee, they were only complimenting Dick Cheney for his fatherly tolerance. The crusher to that pretense came when the Kerry campaign manager, Mary Beth Cahill, coolly announced that the Cheney daughter was "fair game."

Apparently the American public thinks otherwise about the campaigning children of candidates. When polls showed two-to-one disapproval of the calculated Kerry-Edwards abuse of the young woman's privacy, the Democratic strategists who concocted this base-suppressing dirty trick orchestrated a defense that it was Dick Cheney who "outed" his daughter months ago. They are advising Kerry that he would look weak or, worse, slyly manipulative were he to apologize for tagging the Cheneys with the word "lesbian" before 50 million viewers.

Kerry will, I hope, assert his essential decency by apologizing with sincerity. Other Republicans hope he will let his self-inflicted wound fester. They have in mind a TV spot using an old film clip of a Boston lawyer named Welch at a Congressional hearing, saying "Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of decency?"

Surprised the NY Times ran the piece considering they have been on their knees and wiping the corner of their mouth for Kerry

Posted: 10/18/2004 6:28:24 AM EDT

[#13]

Quoted:
Here is today's poll rap. Except for Zogby, Bush is trending upward.

www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Good you're the new bearer of good news.

What part of "shoot the messenger" does HiramRanger not understand?

Posted: 10/18/2004 6:37:08 AM EDT

[#14]

www.nytimes.com/2004/10/18/opinion/18safire.html?oref=login&hp

linked

Posted: 10/18/2004 6:38:48 AM EDT

[#15]

45

Posted: 10/18/2004 6:44:15 AM EDT

[#16]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Here is today's poll rap. Except for Zogby, Bush is trending upward.

www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Good you're the new bearer of good news.

What part of "shoot the messenger" does HiramRanger not understand?

What part of, "if you don't like my threads make a constructive contribution rather than your bellyaching" do you not understand? I provide information both welcome and unwelcome to our side and analyze it. If you want to be spoonfed your daily dose of talking points with no exposure to the information that many people are looking at, go to freerepublic.com. If we weren't dissecting this site and others which propogate lies, people might well see it and walk away thinking its truth.

Fucking damned if I do, damned if I don't. If I don't have the information posted first thing in the morning I get bitched at. If I post it, I get bitched at. Well here is the deal guys. This thread will be here every morning from now until November 2nd. You don't like it, don't open it. You want to contribute, you are more than welcome to. You want to bellyache like a little girl... take it elsewhere.

Posted: 10/18/2004 6:48:44 AM EDT

[#17]

Quoted:
LOL... omg... this guy has completely lost it... this is his final projection!

OK, I might have to stop talking about this guy at all... Read his expose for the day... Claims the ONLY new poll that shows any movement is NH... conveniently by a Dem polling firm and conviently gives it to Kerry. He ignores Rasmussen in Florida because that would break his polling "tie" and give it to Bush...

This assclown actually thinks Virginia is going to be dark blue for Kerry and that North Carolina will go for him as well... What a tool!

Also note that he's changed his polling method for the projected map to benefit Kerry... This guy's a idiot...

Posted: 10/18/2004 6:49:09 AM EDT

[#18]

Rocky Mountain News

To print this page, select File then Print from your browser
URL: www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/election/article/0,1299,DRMN_36_3262788,00.html
Bush gains in poll
Numbers indicate more women moved into GOP column

By Jim Tankersley, © 2004, Rocky Mountain News
October 18, 2004

President Bush has pulled ahead of Sen. John Kerry in Colorado on the strength of increased popularity among women, according to a Rocky Mountain News/News 4 poll.

Bush leads by 5 points, just outside the poll's margin of error and up from a 1-point edge last month. His advantage includes a plurality of women, a change from previous polls that showed female voters preferred Kerry.

Posted: 10/18/2004 6:50:29 AM EDT

[#19]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Here is today's poll rap. Except for Zogby, Bush is trending upward.

www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Good you're the new bearer of good news.

What part of "shoot the messenger" does HiramRanger not understand?

What part of, "if you don't like my threads make a constructive contribution rather than your bellyaching" do you not understand? I provide information both welcome and unwelcome to our side and analyze it. If you want to be spoonfed your daily dose of talking points with no exposure to the information that many people are looking at, go to freerepublic.com. If we weren't dissecting this site and others which propogate lies, people might well see it and walk away thinking its truth.

Fucking damned if I do, damned if I don't. If I don't have the information posted first thing in the morning I get bitched at. If I post it, I get bitched at. Well here is the deal guys. This thread will be here every morning from now until November 2nd. You don't like it, don't open it. You want to contribute, you are more than welcome to. You want to bellyache like a little girl... take it elsewhere.

Hiram,

Lest you think you are unappreciated...

THANK YOU for posting this every AM, and thank you for sharing your insights into these polls with those of us who are less knowledgeable.

Posted: 10/18/2004 6:56:40 AM EDT

[#20]

Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Whoever wins 2 of the 3, wins the election.

-LS

Posted: 10/18/2004 7:07:24 AM EDT

[#21]

Quoted:
Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Whoever wins 2 of the 3, wins the election.

-LS

Not true, if Bush wins two he wins... There are several scenarios that point to Kerry having to win all three to ensure victory.

Posted: 10/18/2004 7:29:01 AM EDT

[#22]

BTT poll added... tell me if this is worth my time or should I just say fuck it and not bother with anything political here until after the election.

Posted: 10/18/2004 7:31:05 AM EDT

[#23]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Whoever wins 2 of the 3, wins the election.

-LS

Not true, if Bush wins two he wins... There are several scenarios that point to Kerry having to win all three to ensure victory.

yup, the President can actually lose PA and OH, or FL and PA and still win the election.

as for electoral-vote, i stopped going there weeks ago, there's just no point anymore, it's like getting predictions from DU. i check realclear and electionprojection daily.

Posted: 10/18/2004 7:31:32 AM EDT

[#24]

Where is the option in your poll for "Yes, the only polls that matter will be the ones on 11/2"?

Posted: 10/18/2004 7:31:34 AM EDT

[#25]

The ONLY "poll" that is important is the one that will take place on November 2, 2004. In that single, all important poll, I have faith that my fellow Americans will have, by that time, awakened from their lassitude and will have finally recognized Monsieur Kerry for what he is. Having had that epiphany, they will then connect the dots and recogniize the very real theat to our Constitution and to our very existance that our mortal enemies pose. It will be at this point in their awakening that our fellow citizens do the right thing and exercise their enfranchisement to vote for President George W. Bush.

God Bless the United States of America!

Posted: 10/18/2004 7:35:05 AM EDT

[#26]

This map is kind of like the beheading videos, I don't really want to see it, but I must know whats going on around me.

Posted: 10/18/2004 7:35:40 AM EDT

[#27]

Quoted:
www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct18.png

Kerry 257 Bush 247

There is a SIGNIFICANT error in the results. It should be Bush 247, Kerry 247, as NADER was omitted from the WI results, and he IS on the ballot here.

Nader WILL get 1-2% of the Kerry vote.

EV.com has Kerry 47, Bush 46, and used a poll with no Nader.

With Nader it would have been Kerry 46, Bush 46.

Posted: 10/18/2004 7:39:41 AM EDT

[#28]

Quoted:
Where is the option in your poll for "Yes, the only polls that matter will be the ones on 11/2"?

That is simply NOT the case... that may be the only poll that matters in the end... however the polls in between tell us where we need to focus efforts and resources, the tell us what issues are resonating and which are not selling... polling matters. To state that the only polls that matter are those on 11-2 understates the issue greatly. Something has to get us to 11-2.

Posted: 10/18/2004 7:54:21 AM EDT

[#29]

Since there are some folks who don't like the numbers from electoral-vote.com, I'm including those from electionprojection.com - a Republican leaning site. Problem is he doesn't update as frequently, nor does he provide as transparent a model as the one I use... in that you just move a cursor over the site's map and it tells you which poll was used for that state, the date of the poll and the breakdown... why would anybody want THAT?

I also not that none of the bellyachers bothered to take two minutes to go get this image and post it... guess whining is their forte... not making contributions.

Kerry 264 Bush 274

Posted: 10/18/2004 8:28:04 AM EDT

[#30]

Trending nicely... from Iowa Politcal Futures, latest update

I notice that the map from electionprojection.com is now a red X... it showed before... not sure what the problem is.

Posted: 10/18/2004 8:42:28 AM EDT

[#31]

Kerry 220 Bush 254

Projection from realclearpolitics.com... problem is I have no idea how new the data is or where they are getting it from... but it shows a Bush lead so it should make people "happy."

Posted: 10/18/2004 2:12:57 PM EDT

[#32]

Hiram, no way should you stop this thread. If folks want to be defeatist let them. Your not here to be their cheerleader.

One thing the naysayers need to remember is Stolen Honor. This is playing in most of the swing state and more importantly in the swing states taht really matter. I'm tellin you guys this is going to have an impact of 1 or 2 points. I guarantee it. I watched this yesterday and it's devastating.

Plus who knows what else is going to come out on Kerry. Rove says he has two surprises, one I believe is Stolen Honor, what is the other.

Also for the naysayers look at how the polls are trending. The majority are RISING, not stagnant, and not falling. Bush is in a good position here. Bush is doing better with women and is chipping into the black vote. I believe yesterday someone said that Kerry's support with blacks was down to 75%. Gore had 90% He is also making BIG strides into the hispanic vote.

If this changes next week you can panic if it makes you feel better. I think we will see the race open up in the last week of the election. One of these guys will win by a solid margin. I don't think it will be Kerry.

Posted: 10/18/2004 2:59:10 PM EDT

[#33]

I think Bush will get 32, Kerry 19 (including DC):

Bush: AL, AK, AR, AZ, CO, FL, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, , MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WI, WV, WY

Kerry: CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IA, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA

Posted: 10/18/2004 3:17:37 PM EDT

[#34]

Quoted:
Hiram,

Lest you think you are unappreciated...

THANK YOU for posting this every AM, and thank you for sharing your insights into these polls with those of us who are less knowledgeable.

Add me to the Amen Chorus on this one.

I find your insight to be very helpful in deciphering all these polls and websites, and I find your dedication to speaking the facts regardless of the trends to be very reassuring, especially since our man is looking good!

Keep it up, buddy, and thanks!

Posted: 10/18/2004 3:28:53 PM EDT

[#35]

Quoted:
This assclown actually thinks Virginia is going to be dark blue for Kerry and that North Carolina will go for him as well... What a tool!

There is NO WAY IN THE WORLD that NC will go Kerry. There are only tiny pockets of Kerry support in predictable places. Take that to the bank.

Posted: 10/18/2004 3:32:19 PM EDT

[#36]

Quoted:
Quoted:
This assclown actually thinks Virginia is going to be dark blue for Kerry and that North Carolina will go for him as well... What a tool!
There is NO WAY IN THE WORLD that NC will go Kerry. There are only tiny pockets of Kerry support in predictable places. Take that to the bank.

Agreed brother... that was worth a great laugh this morning!

Posted: 10/18/2004 3:47:41 PM EDT

[#37]

Quoted:
Quoted:
This assclown actually thinks Virginia is going to be dark blue for Kerry and that North Carolina will go for him as well... What a tool!
There is NO WAY IN THE WORLD that NC will go Kerry. There are only tiny pockets of Kerry support in predictable places. Take that to the bank.

Thank God, seeing as I am soon to become a NC resident!

Posted: 10/18/2004 3:50:58 PM EDT

[#38]

polls are not right ever. I can't see how these polls ever make it in the news. They aren't accurate at all and sometimes bias. In 1984 Reagan was in a tight race in the poles but it was a landside election.

Posted: 10/18/2004 4:01:30 PM EDT

[#39]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Whoever wins 2 of the 3, wins the election.

-LS

Not true, if Bush wins two he wins... There are several scenarios that point to Kerry having to win all three to ensure victory.

You heard it here first, Bush will flip New Jersey.

When this happens, my electoral tallying comrades, what affect will this have on the Big 3? (PA, OH, FL)
If he carries FL, but loses PA and OH, can we still win?

Sheesh, this shit is making my head hurt just thinking about it.

Posted: 10/18/2004 4:12:28 PM EDT

[#40]

TheHappyBlaster, i sure hope you are right.

Lori (wife and unemployed pastry chef) is back in community college to get her teaching certificate. after class today she and the psy. prof were talking. needless to say, the prof is 100% for the 'johns'. figures. wife did not say anything about guns.....yet.

be well
maxwell

Posted: 10/18/2004 4:40:24 PM EDT

[#41]

Keep putting it up every day, please.

It is fun to compare his results and inspires us to work harder.

Posted: 10/18/2004 4:45:03 PM EDT

[#42]

Quoted:
polls are not right ever. I can't see how these polls ever make it in the news. They aren't accurate at all and sometimes bias. In 1984 Reagan was in a tight race in the poles but it was a landside election.

My guess is that you are talking national polls. Reagan's popular vote margin wasn't nearly as great as his electorial vote margin.

Looking at state polls and predicting the electorial vote is way more interesting than looking at national level polls.

Posted: 10/18/2004 8:18:53 PM EDT

[#43]

I voted for your last choice - though I ascribe Sgt’s dementia to pain meds, not a crack pipe!

Let me add that I’d like to see these daily threads continued.

Granted, the guy who does electoral-vote.com (who wasn’t too bad a few weeks ago) seems to be developing a case of rabies.

Still, this thread makes a good meeting point for discussions of poll numbers.

Posted: 10/18/2004 8:21:14 PM EDT

[#44]

Quoted:
The ONLY "poll" that is important is the one that will take place on November 2, 2004. In that single, all important poll, I have faith that my fellow Americans will have, by that time, awakened from their lassitude and will have finally recognized Monsieur Kerry for what he is. Having had that epiphany, they will then connect the dots and recogniize the very real theat to our Constitution and to our very existance that our mortal enemies pose. It will be at this point in their awakening that our fellow citizens do the right thing and exercise their enfranchisement to vote for President George W. Bush.

God Bless the United States of America!

What he said...

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - October 18 Electoral Map

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