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Posted: 2/21/2024 3:12:08 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jungatheart: If I'm reading this right, it means we need not fear any country's nuclear missile threat since we can destroy them at will. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jungatheart: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Very interesting stuff. Also, neutral particle beams are really good at penetrating, for example ICBM missile bodies and destroying their electronics. Fun fact.
Look at the note at the bottom, they are seeing usefulness for directed energy systems for missile defense. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GG0UAzBXsAEwfZ6?format=png&name=4096x4096 "High Powered Strategic Lasers" Reagan has got to be smiling. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GG0Uy3WWIAAmy9j?format=png&name=4096x4096 This goes back a bit and was tested in space. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GG0XstAW0AEYy20?format=png&name=medium Supposedly in orbit in 2023. https://dsiac.org/articles/pentagon-aims-to-loft-particle-beam-anti-missile-weapon-into-space-in-four-years/  https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GG03cC4XEAA3-hP?format=png&name=900x900 If I'm reading this right, it means we need not fear any country's nuclear missile threat since we can destroy them at will. We have been working on a few projects to that end over the years, yes.  Also two Russian SARMAT ICBM failures and a Bulava ICBM failure last year don't instill confidence for the Russians. |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 3:12:51 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: PTSD for life. Dud drone. https://x.com/TOGAjano21/status/1760153974349627405 That guy may as well not bother buying lottery tickets for life. |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 3:23:58 PM EDT
[#3]
lol, the mine just sits on the cages.
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Posted: 2/21/2024 3:32:21 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: We have been working on a few projects to that end over the years, yes. Also two Russian SARMAT ICBM failures and a Bulava ICBM failure last year don't instill confidence for the Russians. Thanks
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Posted: 2/21/2024 3:47:07 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#5]
BAE in England is moving well on 155mm production.
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2023-07-18.194703.h James Cartlidge The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence The Ministry of Defence has placed an order with BAE Systems to increase 155mm shells stockpile for the British Army. The announced eight-fold increase in production capability will be available from 2025. Note that before the increases they were making 150,000 rounds per year, mostly 155 mm and some 105 mm. This would put them at 1.2 million rounds per year in 2025. |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 3:54:39 PM EDT
[Last Edit: DK-Prof]
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kpacman: @dk-prof My BIL was in the Marines about the same time you were with the Danes. He went on joint exercises with Danish soldiers, and he was surprised to see them with hair down to their shoulders and that they were also unionized! Don't know if that's still the case, but it really made me question how effective they would be in a tough fight. I could just imagine soldiers going to their union leader demanding less strenuous working conditions. Are you sure it wasn't the Dutch? ... because even in the Danish army we heard stories about how half-assed and unserious the Dutch military was.Long hair was pretty uncommon in the Danish army during the 80s. In the 70s there probably was some. There certainly wasn't any of it in my infantry regiment, nor did I see any at various schools I attended. In terms of unionization, I don't think that was quite what it was. I certainly never ran into it in five years of service. I know there was a "spokesperson" for each unit - to communicate concerns to leadership - but I don't think it was a union per se. That said, professional soldiers in the Danish army were considered Civil Servants under Danish labor law, so they probably were entitled to some kind of representation like a union.Danish troops seem to have done pretty well in Afghanistan, where they were mostly stationed in outposts in Helmand and saw a lot of action (in comparison to many other European contingents, that mostly hung out near Kabul and Khandahar, and would rarely venture out into dangerous areas). So I think they have developed a pretty decent reputation for tough fighters over the past 20 years - the problem is just that they don't have the resources and scale to be particularly effective in a big-scale conflict. |
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USA
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Posted: 2/21/2024 3:55:28 PM EDT
[#7]
    HIMARS MLRS of Ukrainian Ground Forces in action. Some really nice pictures. |
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USA
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Posted: 2/21/2024 4:03:39 PM EDT
[#8]
BMPs would have ended in huge fireballs. |
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USA
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Posted: 2/21/2024 4:12:15 PM EDT
[#9]
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Posted: 2/21/2024 4:12:19 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Saltwater-Hillbilly]
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dominion21: Way up-thread, 4xGM300m wrote: Sorry. . . I'm becoming more and more convinced, that the West fears a Russian collapse if Ukraine wins this war. That's why they are giving just enough ammo and weapons for Ukraine to survive but not enough to push the Russians back to Mordor. A collapse of Russia and a possible civil war would change the world wide security situation, maybe the use of nuclear weapons in Russia or that any surving party would sell nuclear weapons to terrorists. The politicians fear that Russia is too big to fail and it would cause some serious trouble for the whole world, most likely worse than the problems they are causing now. “ END. I have read multiple sources all repeating the State Department is terrified of a Russian collapse. The “slow-rolling” of weapons to Ukraine is probably the State Department’s doing. While I personally hope for a Russian collapse, my guess is the State Department basis it’s fear on our decisive defeat of Sadaam Hussein’s regime in Iraq, without having a sufficient plan in place to deal with the resulting chaos and lack of a functioning government. Still: the threat to world peace from the Putin regime’s continued existence is greater than the regional threat of a Russian collapse. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dominion21: Originally Posted By burnka871: Originally Posted By Dominion21: It is my sincere hope someone in Ukraine decides: - stop wasting resources hitting Russian in Africa, and - hit Russia’s oil pipelines and refineries. Hard. Repeatedly. Refineries are flammable. Pipelines travel through remote areas. Do the needful, Ukraine. Collapse Putin’s entire regime. Agreed. How do you defeat the gas station that masquerades as a country? Go after the gas station. Way up-thread, 4xGM300m wrote: Sorry. . . I'm becoming more and more convinced, that the West fears a Russian collapse if Ukraine wins this war. That's why they are giving just enough ammo and weapons for Ukraine to survive but not enough to push the Russians back to Mordor. A collapse of Russia and a possible civil war would change the world wide security situation, maybe the use of nuclear weapons in Russia or that any surving party would sell nuclear weapons to terrorists. The politicians fear that Russia is too big to fail and it would cause some serious trouble for the whole world, most likely worse than the problems they are causing now. “ END. I have read multiple sources all repeating the State Department is terrified of a Russian collapse. The “slow-rolling” of weapons to Ukraine is probably the State Department’s doing. While I personally hope for a Russian collapse, my guess is the State Department basis it’s fear on our decisive defeat of Sadaam Hussein’s regime in Iraq, without having a sufficient plan in place to deal with the resulting chaos and lack of a functioning government. Still: the threat to world peace from the Putin regime’s continued existence is greater than the regional threat of a Russian collapse. The Staties are fond of pointing out that the US military had more people in music bands than there are Staties. I have seen the performance of both the US State Department and US Army Bands during wartime, and especially in-theater. Based on my MoE (measures of effectiveness) assessment, I think we need a much smaller State Department and more military bands! The Bands actually did some useful tasks outside of providing music as well as helping the morale of troops, took personal and professional risks to accomplish their mission, and were much better at generating positive rapport with the locals. I mean, if you were appointed as a mayor in a town in Al Anbar, who would you rather have in your investment ceremony; a decent 18-piece band playing in your inauguration that brought along M4s and handguns in addition to their instruments showing support for you in your new job or a soft US State Department functionary who spoke in Diplomatese riddles? Which one will the attendees remember longer?
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WI, USA
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Posted: 2/21/2024 4:16:14 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Kingsmen: I think the concern is that if we send all that, China might take a more active role in helping Russia. I think that is part of the concern that keeps DC from sending adequate aid. China could easily spare a big pile of medium range guided missiles that would wreak havoc in Ukraine. But that works both ways. Sanctions on China would really push their economy over the edge. The USN has some old missile cruisers going out of active duty. What could Ukraine's navy unleash on Russia if they had a Pacific and a Baltic fleet? We've kept Tomahawks, even older models, completely off the table, but if China came in with missiles why shouldn't the US send some older Tomahawks so Ukraine can wreck the oil & gas production in western Siberia? It's a fine balance and a dangerous game, but there is a LOT of room left on the 'escalation ladder.' |
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USA
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Posted: 2/21/2024 4:34:01 PM EDT
[#12]
 UKBTM has patented its defense against drones with ERA . |
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USA
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Posted: 2/21/2024 4:52:23 PM EDT
[Last Edit: guns762]
[#13]
[Deleted]
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Posted: 2/21/2024 5:01:59 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#14]
Another strike, 45 minutes ago. Reports of two rounds used.
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Posted: 2/21/2024 5:03:59 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#15]
Cryptic.
 Also:
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WI, USA
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Posted: 2/21/2024 5:21:30 PM EDT
[#16]
Solovyov on Navalny, and threatening his widow with the same. Navalny was a Nazi!
 Vladimir Solovyov threatens Yulia Navalnaya with the same fate as her husband |
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USA
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Posted: 2/21/2024 5:23:23 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Another strike, 45 minutes ago. Reports of two rounds used.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GG4osnDXQAAIVPQ?format=jpg&name=900x900 
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USA
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Posted: 2/21/2024 5:31:28 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 4xGM300m]
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Also:
Please let it be true, if true I won a bet and one week paid special leave.
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Posted: 2/21/2024 5:38:00 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Please let it be true, if true I won a bet and one week paid special leave. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Also:
Please let it be true, if true I won a bet and one week paid special leave. lol, well I hope so, but something is happening tomorrow, the Ukrainian govt Twitter is literally telling the Russians a Sea Baby drone attack is coming.
Who’s ready for another sea adventure🌊🚤?
Let me know if Harpoons are used instead of Sea Babies.
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Posted: 2/21/2024 5:40:24 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#20]
Drone video of yesterday's strike on Russian training ground.
village of Krynky
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Posted: 2/21/2024 5:41:35 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Evintos: The bold is where I think we share similar observations and agreement, but we have arrived at different conclusions. I'm not arguing for a decrease in aid. I'm arguing for a level of aid that I don't think is possible/probable (due to a totality of individuals' national interests, example being we in the US need to save enough for possible conflict with China in Taiwan) in order to achieve the outcomes. The level of commitment is not enough. Had we sent it 2014, immediately after Russia invaded Crimea, yes, the relatively small amount of aid (ATACMs, HIMARs, Abrams, Bradleys, etc) would've been enough to prevent the start of the '22 invasion (as well as retake Crimea). Even if the equipment in the current amounts were sent in late summer 2022 (start training of the crew immediately after the start of the '22 invasion, for a minimum of a 6 month training cycle), I don't think it would've been enough and that there would've been continued fighting to this day as Russia would've been committed to the invasion. I think we're far enough past the stage of "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" that it's going to require multiple pounds of cure. Part of which means, preparing the population of the US and EU mentally for the possibility of direct confrontation with Russia (and of course that would mean Iran, China, essentially WW3) despite the amount aid given so far. I think the mentality needs to shift from something like "give now or pay later" to something more along the lines of "give now and still might have to pay later." Maybe I'm a WW3 doomer, but I think it's coming whether we want it to or not. I also think it's better to be prepared and then later go, hey it was a big nothing burger but at least we don't have millions dying in a global conflict. Edit - US actions now in Ukraine to me is similar enough to US actions in regards to Georgia and South Ossetia in 2008 that I think the results will be largely similar. The reason I am not in charge is I would tell putin to get the fuck out of Ukraine while he still has enough equipment to defend himself from the invisible threat. If you so much as use a weed eater near a nuke silo, we will end st petersburg and moscow with conventional weapons before you realize what is going on. If you want to try a launch, we will remove every sub you have from service simultaneously. Take your shitty army home while you still can. We would then be sending everything ever designed to make good commies, along with a few advisors to give accelerated on the job training. Long range fires first, ad elimination, let those jets eat. Remind that sawed off lunatic every day that he can leave with what he has at any time. Every day he waits, there will be less to take home, and we are going to do it with weapons some of which were made decades ago. Your choice dick breath, you can call mission accomplished and stop the slaughter.
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USA
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Posted: 2/21/2024 5:42:39 PM EDT
[#22]
    I have an idea how they could add "combat proven" to the SLX system. 
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Posted: 2/21/2024 5:44:18 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: lol, well I hope so, but something is happening tomorrow, the Ukrainian govt Twitter is literally telling the Russians a Sea Baby drone attack is coming.
Let me know if Harpoons are used instead of Sea Babies. Let's gooooooo |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 5:45:29 PM EDT
[#24]
Proud to say the 2 packages of uniforms, boots, camelbacks, field gear, and cold weather stuff made it to the guys.
Got the picture confirmation today. 
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Posted: 2/21/2024 5:46:25 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: These are the newest Lancet that outlines possible targets, then guides automatically to it. Notice how it likes to latch onto squared edges. It has some bugs.
Put out a few of those stupid radar reflectors the russians use, and see if it homes in on those. |
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USA
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Posted: 2/21/2024 5:53:02 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Drone video of yesterday's strike on Russian training ground.
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Drone video of yesterday's strike on Russian training ground.
village of Krynky 26 km or 16 miles south of Krynky. This is nuts. |
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WY, USA
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Posted: 2/21/2024 5:57:05 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryHoly shit, solid numbers on APC and tubes and Special equipment......tick, tock, tick, to know the day is coming when they run out of vehicles |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 5:58:36 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: 26 km or 16 miles south of Krynky. This is nuts. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Drone video of yesterday's strike on Russian training ground.
village of Krynky 26 km or 16 miles south of Krynky. This is nuts.  Attached File |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 6:14:34 PM EDT
[#29]
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USA
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Posted: 2/21/2024 6:34:50 PM EDT
[#30]
 Russian T-62 with some ERA. It has been an honour for me. Thanks to all.  |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 6:43:34 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: https://i.imgur.com/QJbWNPu.jpeg Russian T-62 with some ERA. It has been an honour for me. Thanks to all. I hope you aren't leaving us man. |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 6:49:50 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: lol, the mine just sits on the cages.
Awesome! |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 7:13:21 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Kingsmen: I think the concern is that if we send all that, China might take a more active role in helping Russia. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Kingsmen: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Disagree 100%. Not supporting Ukraine now will cost US much much more in the future. Again, few folks are talking about defeating Russia like Nazi Germany in '45, raising flags on a bombed-out Kremlin, putting Pitin on trail... We just have to convince Putin that we will do everything necessary to keep him from taking all of Ukraine. Instead of showing him weakness and decreasing commitment, we should be showing him steel. Once further attacks on Ukraine prove to be futile and costly with NOTHING GAINED, then maybe he will be convinced. Most likely, it will take UA advancing and progressively retaking territory to convince Putin. Then there may be some good faith negotiations. It will be up to the Ukrainians to decide how much blood is worth Crimea and bombed out Dondas/Luhansk. I also doubt Ukraine can retake 100% but we must convince Putin that he cannot take 100% but right now all he see's is the opposite. 300 Abrams, 300 Bardleys, 100 F16's and a few hundred ATACMS. Hell if we were in a hurry to win, then send Tomahawks and 300Km range ATAMS. Had we sent this shit in late 2022 or early 2023 it could have been over by now. But here we are arguing over shipping costs and elections... I think the concern is that if we send all that, China might take a more active role in helping Russia. I don't really see that as a concern since it's actually in China's best interests to reduce Russia's influence in the world. Also, don't forget, ChinaIsAsshoe isn't giving Russian anything, they're selling them stuff. Eventually it's likely Russia will be unable to pay for what they're asking for and they'll get cut off. |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 7:21:44 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I hope you aren't leaving us man. Yeah, me too. |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 7:24:37 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DK-Prof: Yeah, it's depressing as fuck. I served in the Danish army until 1990. Back then, it was ALREADY depressing how under-equipped and under-funded we were. To think that now we look back at those days as the days when Europe actually had a "real" and somewhat credible defense is insane. Going from 330 tanks to 44 is pathetic. All the politicians basically convinced themselves that with the USSR (and WaPa) gone, there would never be war in Europe again, so they could justify gutting the military to spend more money on all their other bullshit pet projects. In the 1980s, Denmark has 12 infantry regiments. Today, I believe there are two. Two.  Why even bother? I am VERY curious to see what will happen moving forward. Denmark supposedly is now spending enough that they do meet the 2% NATO guideline - but after neglecting the military for 30 years, I am not convinced an annual spend of 2% will really result in much. Countries who have allowed the military to wither away over the past several decades probably need to be spending something like 4-5% for a decade to get back to any serious capability, and THEN perhaps drop down to a sustained 2% level. |
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USA
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Posted: 2/21/2024 7:30:18 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Kingsmen: I think the concern is that if we send all that, China might take a more active role in helping Russia. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Kingsmen: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Disagree 100%. Not supporting Ukraine now will cost US much much more in the future. Again, few folks are talking about defeating Russia like Nazi Germany in '45, raising flags on a bombed-out Kremlin, putting Pitin on trail... We just have to convince Putin that we will do everything necessary to keep him from taking all of Ukraine. Instead of showing him weakness and decreasing commitment, we should be showing him steel. Once further attacks on Ukraine prove to be futile and costly with NOTHING GAINED, then maybe he will be convinced. Most likely, it will take UA advancing and progressively retaking territory to convince Putin. Then there may be some good faith negotiations. It will be up to the Ukrainians to decide how much blood is worth Crimea and bombed out Dondas/Luhansk. I also doubt Ukraine can retake 100% but we must convince Putin that he cannot take 100% but right now all he see's is the opposite. 300 Abrams, 300 Bardleys, 100 F16's and a few hundred ATACMS. Hell if we were in a hurry to win, then send Tomahawks and 300Km range ATAMS. Had we sent this shit in late 2022 or early 2023 it could have been over by now. But here we are arguing over shipping costs and elections... I think the concern is that if we send all that, China might take a more active role in helping Russia. There are only 3 major economic powers in the world. The US, EU, and China. With the US seemingly pulling back from the global leadership role and giving a bit of a cold shoulder to NATO, the EU needs to become more independent in their defense and foreign policy. As the EU moves further away from the US, they might get closer to China. Their interests are starting to get aligned, and there is no one else to turn to. China has no interest in a strong Russia. In fact, they would prefer the opposite. If China is smart, it will stay out of this conflict and try to reassert itself as a reasonable partner and regional power. I do not think it is out of the question that the conflict will bring the EU and China closer together. That is the risk of pursuing a US isolationist policy. |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 7:30:39 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Also note the previous posts by ItchyFinger: the State Dept was a useless hot mess in Afghanistan, and the cause of massive problems in Iraq. Iraq was indeed a mess after Saddam, but State created most of the problems that occurred in that area with their misguided ideas, wrongheaded approaches, and bad implementations. Our military was outstanding in Iraq. State was an unmitigated disaster of epic proportions. I have no doubt that the wool-heads in Foggy Bottom are creating no end of trouble with Ukraine, and fully expect that this is indeed the reason, the same concern R0N stated - what if what happens after Putin is worse? I repeat: that's not a reason to avoid doing what is right for Europe & Ukraine now. What is framed above is exactly one of Russia's fears, that we aim to cause a collapse greater than 1991 resulting in the breakup and destruction of the Russian Federation. That is not our aim, I think we all agree (well, most of us). Most people don't want to destroy Russia, we just want a Russia that is willing to live within its borders and under its treaties and international obligations and engage in free commerce. If Russia breaks itself apart over Ukraine, that's their fault and their problem, but according to international law and the treaties that Russia signed and ratified, Ukraine is a sovereign state with recognized borders. Nuclear non-proliferation is all but dead, because of what US did to Libya, and worse what Russia did to Ukraine. Maybe a breakup of the Russian Federation would trigger the world to rediscover the value of nonproliferation and we could bring that back. My assessment is that what happens after a Russian defeat in Ukraine (Putin's ouster) would indeed be worse, in the short run. An extremist replacement would not last long due to both internal and external resistance, and a future Russia would be what the world needs it to be: peaceful, reliable, with free commerce and stable relations. Russia gave North Vietnam all the support they needed to win their war. We should do the same for Ukraine.  Agree on all counts. Putin WILL be replaced one way or the other and I would rather his replacement be stinging with the very bad experience from a defeat in Ukraine rather than emboldened and invigorated from a victory. |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 7:40:33 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Ugh. https://www.dodig.mil/In-the-Spotlight/Article/3681630/press-release-evaluation-of-sustainment-strategies-for-the-patriot-air-defense/ And I thought the absurd delays in sending the few items was due to obsessive and compulsive adherence to the maintenance and logistics support for the vehicles. I mean 31 fucking Abrams?!?! But we even fucked that up too?!! |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 7:44:07 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: And I thought the absurd delays in sending the few items was due to obsessive and compulsive adherence to the maintenance and logistics support for the vehicles. I mean 31 fucking Abrams?!?! But we even fucked that up too?!! Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Ugh. https://www.dodig.mil/In-the-Spotlight/Article/3681630/press-release-evaluation-of-sustainment-strategies-for-the-patriot-air-defense/ And I thought the absurd delays in sending the few items was due to obsessive and compulsive adherence to the maintenance and logistics support for the vehicles. I mean 31 fucking Abrams?!?! But we even fucked that up too?!! It really makes it all the more amazing that the Ukrainians were able have the Patriot defend against those attacks, and the vehicles to keep running. |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 7:48:15 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Kingsmen: I think the concern is that if we send all that, China might take a more active role in helping Russia. It's possible. I am not privy to insider information, threats, and deals between the big players. I think what will happen is the same in the end. Emboldened Russia aided by China in a hot war against the West. |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 7:53:10 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Evintos: The bold is where I think we share similar observations and agreement, but we have arrived at different conclusions. I'm not arguing for a decrease in aid. I'm arguing for a level of aid that I don't think is possible/probable (due to a totality of individuals' national interests, example being we in the US need to save enough for possible conflict with China in Taiwan) in order to achieve the outcomes. The level of commitment is not enough. Had we sent it 2014, immediately after Russia invaded Crimea, yes, the relatively small amount of aid (ATACMs, HIMARs, Abrams, Bradleys, etc) would've been enough to prevent the start of the '22 invasion (as well as retake Crimea). Even if the equipment in the current amounts were sent in late summer 2022 (start training of the crew immediately after the start of the '22 invasion, for a minimum of a 6 month training cycle), I don't think it would've been enough and that there would've been continued fighting to this day as Russia would've been committed to the invasion. I think we're far enough past the stage of "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" that it's going to require multiple pounds of cure. Part of which means, preparing the population of the US and EU mentally for the possibility of direct confrontation with Russia (and of course that would mean Iran, China, essentially WW3) despite the amount aid given so far. I think the mentality needs to shift from something like "give now or pay later" to something more along the lines of "give now and still might have to pay later." Maybe I'm a WW3 doomer, but I think it's coming whether we want it to or not. I also think it's better to be prepared and then later go, hey it was a big nothing burger but at least we don't have millions dying in a global conflict. Edit - US actions now in Ukraine to me is similar enough to US actions in regards to Georgia and South Ossetia in 2008 that I think the results will be largely similar. I think many years from now (assuming the West survives and has honest history books written) people will look back and marvel about how the West and USA did everything possible to guarantee the future collision course we are on. They will be amazed that even after the mistakes that led to WWI and WWII, idiots tried to outdo them in the leadup to WWIII. |
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NE, USA
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Posted: 2/21/2024 7:58:08 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DK-Prof: Are you sure it wasn't the Dutch? ... because even in the Danish army we heard stories about how half-assed and unserious the Dutch military was.Long hair was pretty uncommon in the Danish army during the 80s. In the 70s there probably was some. There certainly wasn't any of it in my infantry regiment, nor did I see any at various schools I attended. In terms of unionization, I don't think that was quite what it was. I certainly never ran into it in five years of service. I know there was a "spokesperson" for each unit - to communicate concerns to leadership - but I don't think it was a union per se. That said, professional soldiers in the Danish army were considered Civil Servants under Danish labor law, so they probably were entitled to some kind of representation like a union.Danish troops seem to have done pretty well in Afghanistan, where they were mostly stationed in outposts in Helmand and saw a lot of action (in comparison to many other European contingents, that mostly hung out near Kabul and Khandahar, and would rarely venture out into dangerous areas). So I think they have developed a pretty decent reputation for tough fighters over the past 20 years - the problem is just that they don't have the resources and scale to be particularly effective in a big-scale conflict. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DK-Prof: Originally Posted By kpacman: @dk-prof My BIL was in the Marines about the same time you were with the Danes. He went on joint exercises with Danish soldiers, and he was surprised to see them with hair down to their shoulders and that they were also unionized! Don't know if that's still the case, but it really made me question how effective they would be in a tough fight. I could just imagine soldiers going to their union leader demanding less strenuous working conditions. Are you sure it wasn't the Dutch? ... because even in the Danish army we heard stories about how half-assed and unserious the Dutch military was.Long hair was pretty uncommon in the Danish army during the 80s. In the 70s there probably was some. There certainly wasn't any of it in my infantry regiment, nor did I see any at various schools I attended. In terms of unionization, I don't think that was quite what it was. I certainly never ran into it in five years of service. I know there was a "spokesperson" for each unit - to communicate concerns to leadership - but I don't think it was a union per se. That said, professional soldiers in the Danish army were considered Civil Servants under Danish labor law, so they probably were entitled to some kind of representation like a union.Danish troops seem to have done pretty well in Afghanistan, where they were mostly stationed in outposts in Helmand and saw a lot of action (in comparison to many other European contingents, that mostly hung out near Kabul and Khandahar, and would rarely venture out into dangerous areas). So I think they have developed a pretty decent reputation for tough fighters over the past 20 years - the problem is just that they don't have the resources and scale to be particularly effective in a big-scale conflict. It was definitely one of the Scandinavian countries. Sweden perhaps? He just had a lot of fun shooting their submachineguns off of the ship. |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 8:01:42 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Solovyov on Navalny, and threatening his widow with the same. Navalny was a Nazi!  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idOf9VhQSlQRussian have a very strange sense of “logic”. That guy is only left alive, because he makes Putin look even worse on the world stage. It’s a difficult fence to straddle. |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 8:07:42 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Cryptic.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GG42p-GWUAA47IQ?format=jpg&name=900x900 Also:
I wonder if those recent planes are F16 kills or patriot. Would the F16's be capable of that? |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 8:30:17 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By theskuh: I wonder if those recent planes are F16 kills or patriot. Would the F16's be capable of that? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By theskuh: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Cryptic.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GG42p-GWUAA47IQ?format=jpg&name=900x900 Also:
I wonder if those recent planes are F16 kills or patriot. Would the F16's be capable of that? There is speculation about that, but let's see if there is confirmation. |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 8:31:53 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: I think that is part of the concern that keeps DC from sending adequate aid. China could easily spare a big pile of medium range guided missiles that would wreak havoc in Ukraine. But that works both ways. Sanctions on China would really push their economy over the edge. The USN has some old missile cruisers going out of active duty. What could Ukraine's navy unleash on Russia if they had a Pacific and a Baltic fleet? We've kept Tomahawks, even older models, completely off the table, but if China came in with missiles why shouldn't the US send some older Tomahawks so Ukraine can wreck the oil & gas production in western Siberia? It's a fine balance and a dangerous game, but there is a LOT of room left on the 'escalation ladder.' Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By Kingsmen: I think the concern is that if we send all that, China might take a more active role in helping Russia. I think that is part of the concern that keeps DC from sending adequate aid. China could easily spare a big pile of medium range guided missiles that would wreak havoc in Ukraine. But that works both ways. Sanctions on China would really push their economy over the edge. The USN has some old missile cruisers going out of active duty. What could Ukraine's navy unleash on Russia if they had a Pacific and a Baltic fleet? We've kept Tomahawks, even older models, completely off the table, but if China came in with missiles why shouldn't the US send some older Tomahawks so Ukraine can wreck the oil & gas production in western Siberia? It's a fine balance and a dangerous game, but there is a LOT of room left on the 'escalation ladder.' IMO the West should have announced long a go that it would tit for tat supply weapon types based on what the Russians use. I.e use a cluster munition in Ukraine=Ukraine gets cluster munitions. Aside from that shitholes should worry about escalating stuff with the US/Allies, Hamas bet on Israel worrying to much about escalation and now they are most definitly shitting themselves. That all being said and knowing fuck all about actual millitary stuff not included in 1980s action movies I'm pretty well versed in evaluating an opponents, were they wil yield and what they wil make do with. GOOD/BAD NEWS is that I havent seen anybody pay much thought at: BAD: After seeing the interview it's clear to me that Putin not a NeoStalin but the the even more shitty type of client I show the door: The client that for some reaon developed a obsession about X , Y or Z. Can't help that type of person and I am sorry to say they don't really change. GOOD: Despite the recent fall of Avdika Putin is has used up a number of one trick ponys to get where we are now. He is aware that he reached the limit of internal support has he even prevented the 'ringer' candidate from running. We saw the hotdog salesman march and the people flocking to it. I would guess the best strategy for Ukraine now wil be to keep killing Russians and wrecking Russian shit in a defenive posture and ultilizeing weaknesses when and were they appear. IF the US/Europe keep up support and Ukraine is willing to fight I reckon . That is why the IW aimed at the weak minded in Europe and US is so essential for Russia. |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 8:44:56 PM EDT
[#47]
ISW special: THE RUSSIAN WINTER-SPRING 2024 OFFENSIVE OPERATION ON THE KHARKIV-LUHANSK AXIS
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-winter-spring-2024-offensive-operation-kharkiv-luhansk-axis |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 2/21/2024 9:04:40 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: ISW special: THE RUSSIAN WINTER-SPRING 2024 OFFENSIVE OPERATION ON THE KHARKIV-LUHANSK AXIS https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-winter-spring-2024-offensive-operation-kharkiv-luhansk-axis That's interesting. Biggest operation since 2022 and would be a disaster for Ukraine if it's successful. |
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Posted: 2/21/2024 9:45:12 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: I think many years from now (assuming the West survives and has honest history books written) people will look back and marvel about how the West and USA did everything possible to guarantee the future collision course we are on. They will be amazed that even after the mistakes that led to WWI and WWII, idiots tried to outdo them in the leadup to WWIII. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Evintos: The bold is where I think we share similar observations and agreement, but we have arrived at different conclusions. I'm not arguing for a decrease in aid. I'm arguing for a level of aid that I don't think is possible/probable (due to a totality of individuals' national interests, example being we in the US need to save enough for possible conflict with China in Taiwan) in order to achieve the outcomes. The level of commitment is not enough. Had we sent it 2014, immediately after Russia invaded Crimea, yes, the relatively small amount of aid (ATACMs, HIMARs, Abrams, Bradleys, etc) would've been enough to prevent the start of the '22 invasion (as well as retake Crimea). Even if the equipment in the current amounts were sent in late summer 2022 (start training of the crew immediately after the start of the '22 invasion, for a minimum of a 6 month training cycle), I don't think it would've been enough and that there would've been continued fighting to this day as Russia would've been committed to the invasion. I think we're far enough past the stage of "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" that it's going to require multiple pounds of cure. Part of which means, preparing the population of the US and EU mentally for the possibility of direct confrontation with Russia (and of course that would mean Iran, China, essentially WW3) despite the amount aid given so far. I think the mentality needs to shift from something like "give now or pay later" to something more along the lines of "give now and still might have to pay later." Maybe I'm a WW3 doomer, but I think it's coming whether we want it to or not. I also think it's better to be prepared and then later go, hey it was a big nothing burger but at least we don't have millions dying in a global conflict. Edit - US actions now in Ukraine to me is similar enough to US actions in regards to Georgia and South Ossetia in 2008 that I think the results will be largely similar. I think many years from now (assuming the West survives and has honest history books written) people will look back and marvel about how the West and USA did everything possible to guarantee the future collision course we are on. They will be amazed that even after the mistakes that led to WWI and WWII, idiots tried to outdo them in the leadup to WWIII. Yes, this. ^ If anyone ever watched the miniseries called "The Winds of War" it was astounding in the runup to WWII how anyone could not see it coming. Just like WWIII that is coming now. Those that do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. |
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USA
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Posted: 2/21/2024 9:58:00 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Kingsmen]
[#50]
So does Ukraine have anywhere near enough air defenses for those Iranian srbm missiles, or is Kiev basically going to get blitzed in a big swarm of hundreds of missiles hitting infrastructure, government buildings and even air defense sites like the patriot batteries? That could be very bad, I hear those Iranian missiles are actually pretty decent. The worst is if the patriots run out of interceptors and the radar or something gets hit
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