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OFFICIAL Russo-Ukrainian War (Page 5411 of 5590)
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Link Posted: 2/20/2024 1:58:12 PM EDT
[#1]
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Originally Posted By MFP_4073:

was thinking the same thing.  lots of high-fiving for the Russians.   for what amounts to taking an area the size of a county in the US.

plus the losses -- as you mention -- for the 'gain' were absolutely massive
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Originally Posted By MFP_4073:
Originally Posted By MKSheppard:
To put Avdiivka into context...

...the amount of land Russia captured was about 5 miles for the cost of about 10K casualties and 300 AFV in the recent push; on top of whatever casualties over the last ten years (since 2014) in fighting there.

....

It's the equivalent of an enemy seizing Dulles Airport out near DC, and then spending ten years to seize Reston, VA -- don't worry, only another ten years to capture Tyson's Corner! Another then years to advance to Alexandria; and then maybe god willing in another ten years, we can assault cross the Potomac and seize SW Washington.  

was thinking the same thing.  lots of high-fiving for the Russians.   for what amounts to taking an area the size of a county in the US.

plus the losses -- as you mention -- for the 'gain' were absolutely massive

Pre-war population was about 31K. It wasn't even the size of a county.

Russian chatter has casualties around 16K.

And the tactics they used were insane. Were they drugging their infantry? Seriously, how did they get so many people to do that? Small groups advancing under fire, no armor, hiding in rubble until a large enough group survived to make a short-range wave attack to overwhelm defenders. The true exchange ratio must be horrifying. How does Russia keep getting troops doing this stuff?
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 2:11:20 PM EDT
[#2]
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Originally Posted By RockNwood:
Randy presents a concise case for defeating Russia in Ukraine via a vis nuclear and conventional deterrent.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_5848-3135556.jpg

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Originally Posted By RockNwood:
Randy presents a concise case for defeating Russia in Ukraine via a vis nuclear and conventional deterrent.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_5848-3135556.jpg

There have been dozens of times in history with Russia since WW2 that this worked: the Berlin airlift, the Cuban missile crisis, the attack on the Wagner group in Syria, etc.
If the West and our Asian allies cannot respond decisively on a non-nuclear level, then the burden of escalatory risks shifts against us. Nuclear weapons just cancel each other out: they do not translate generally into a non-nuclear deterrent.
The real risk is that allowing Russia to win in Ukraine will empower them to do other non-nuclear provocations and take bigger military risks. At some unknown point, the US will have to directly respond with conventional forces. Depending on the situation, this can get out of hand on the escalation ladder if either side feels it is losing a critical encounter that requires stepping up the ladder.
The chances of a general conventional conflict with Russia that might escalate will grow exponentially if the US fails to properly arm Ukraine. There are few places where confrontation with Russia provides a more favorable balance of forces for the West than an "armed to win" Ukraine.  Bugging out of this one will signal that Russia can exploit local conventional power situations without much fear of reprisals or direct confrontation.
A  miscalculation by Russia on how the US might respond to such situations will provide the greatest risk of World War 3 since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

'It's Europe's problem, let them handle it, the US has done too much for them already.'

The US needs a free Europe.
If that's true, Russian expansion must be opposed.
Putin claims the Baltics.
If that's true, allowing Russia to take Ukraine increases the risk of war with NATO by putting Putin in a stronger position to attack the Baltics, and making us look unwilling to defend European interests.
Putin and other Russian leaders have declared publicly that they will oppose US interests around the globe - diplomatically, economically, militarily, economically (there's that DIME thing).
If that's true, allowing Russia to achieve a great victory by conquering a major industrial & agricultural neighbor only makes Russia stronger in the long run and better able to accomplish that stated goal.

Link Posted: 2/20/2024 2:11:52 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#3]
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Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

Pre-war population was about 31K. It wasn't even the size of a county.

Russian chatter has casualties around 16K.

And the tactics they used were insane. Were they drugging their infantry? Seriously, how did they get so many people to do that? Small groups advancing under fire, no armor, hiding in rubble until a large enough group survived to make a short-range wave attack to overwhelm defenders. The true exchange ratio must be horrifying. How does Russia keep getting troops doing this stuff?
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Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:
Originally Posted By MFP_4073:
Originally Posted By MKSheppard:
To put Avdiivka into context...

...the amount of land Russia captured was about 5 miles for the cost of about 10K casualties and 300 AFV in the recent push; on top of whatever casualties over the last ten years (since 2014) in fighting there.

....

It's the equivalent of an enemy seizing Dulles Airport out near DC, and then spending ten years to seize Reston, VA -- don't worry, only another ten years to capture Tyson's Corner! Another then years to advance to Alexandria; and then maybe god willing in another ten years, we can assault cross the Potomac and seize SW Washington.  

was thinking the same thing.  lots of high-fiving for the Russians.   for what amounts to taking an area the size of a county in the US.

plus the losses -- as you mention -- for the 'gain' were absolutely massive

Pre-war population was about 31K. It wasn't even the size of a county.

Russian chatter has casualties around 16K.

And the tactics they used were insane. Were they drugging their infantry? Seriously, how did they get so many people to do that? Small groups advancing under fire, no armor, hiding in rubble until a large enough group survived to make a short-range wave attack to overwhelm defenders. The true exchange ratio must be horrifying. How does Russia keep getting troops doing this stuff?



Look how they spin it.



I would be nervous if I was  a Russian soldier that survived the recent advance.


Link Posted: 2/20/2024 2:24:52 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#4]
5 minutes ago.


This facility provided training for soldiers of the 🇷🇺Russian 39th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade.
The missile attack came at a time when military personnel were forming up.

🔥The strike was carried out by three HIMARS MLRS missiles.

‼️According to information 65 Russian soldiers were killed.  
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Link Posted: 2/20/2024 2:34:40 PM EDT
[#5]
Dolboeb=dickhead.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 2:36:56 PM EDT
[#6]
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Originally Posted By Alex9661:
Dolboeb=dickhead.
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Much appreciated, I thought he was hit as he wrote that.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 2:39:53 PM EDT
[#7]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



Look how they spin it.



I would be nervous if I was  a Russian soldier that survived the recent advance.


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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:
Originally Posted By MFP_4073:
Originally Posted By MKSheppard:
To put Avdiivka into context...

...the amount of land Russia captured was about 5 miles for the cost of about 10K casualties and 300 AFV in the recent push; on top of whatever casualties over the last ten years (since 2014) in fighting there.

....

It's the equivalent of an enemy seizing Dulles Airport out near DC, and then spending ten years to seize Reston, VA -- don't worry, only another ten years to capture Tyson's Corner! Another then years to advance to Alexandria; and then maybe god willing in another ten years, we can assault cross the Potomac and seize SW Washington.  

was thinking the same thing.  lots of high-fiving for the Russians.   for what amounts to taking an area the size of a county in the US.

plus the losses -- as you mention -- for the 'gain' were absolutely massive

Pre-war population was about 31K. It wasn't even the size of a county.

Russian chatter has casualties around 16K.

And the tactics they used were insane. Were they drugging their infantry? Seriously, how did they get so many people to do that? Small groups advancing under fire, no armor, hiding in rubble until a large enough group survived to make a short-range wave attack to overwhelm defenders. The true exchange ratio must be horrifying. How does Russia keep getting troops doing this stuff?



Look how they spin it.



I would be nervous if I was  a Russian soldier that survived the recent advance.



This gap between reality and top level military report out emphasizes how important it is the West not rely on nuance, gradualism, or fear of incremental escalation. Putin, having chosen to isolate from the internet and most direct comms, will never see any of that subtlety.

The only thing Putin will hear about are responses so obvious and overwhelming that they cannot be covered up or ignored. Like losing aircraft, refineries, ships, air bases, and major terrain. It has to hurt a lot for Russia command level to acknowledge.


Link Posted: 2/20/2024 2:39:59 PM EDT
[#8]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
5 minutes ago.




https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGzMIxPacAAze7A?format=jpg&name=small


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGzMJTCasAIofFl?format=jpg&name=900x900

https://y.yarn.co/3eeef8b3-ea9b-4a8a-8b64-001a8a1de544_text.gif
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I was just thinking it's been a slow news day.

Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 2:51:07 PM EDT
[#9]



Link Posted: 2/20/2024 2:53:57 PM EDT
[#10]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Look how they spin it.


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Being an object lesson is not devoid of value.

Similar to considering that one's own life experience may not be devoid of value - if only as an object lesson?
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 3:03:06 PM EDT
[Last Edit: guns762] [#11]
[Deleted]
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 3:05:18 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#12]
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Originally Posted By Circuits:

Being an object lesson is not devoid of value.

Similar to considering that one's own life experience may not be devoid of value - if only as an object lesson?
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Originally Posted By Circuits:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Look how they spin it.



Being an object lesson is not devoid of value.

Similar to considering that one's own life experience may not be devoid of value - if only as an object lesson?


True, it reminds me of the WW2 Japanese reports to their command after a battle. Large overstated American casualties and ships and planes shot down and sunk, until they end up on your doorstep and you realize many of those reports were inaccurate.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 3:10:41 PM EDT
[#13]

Link Posted: 2/20/2024 3:41:24 PM EDT
[#14]
I think that we evaluate the war from our perspective.
We place a very high value on our soldiers and go way out of our way to ensure that our casualties are minimal.
For Putin the equation probably looks a lot differently - yeah, he lost 300-400k troops, mostly minorities and prisoners , but he gained millions of Ukrainians in the occupied territories so from his point of view the Ukraine war is a success - now he has more land and more subjects that he had before he started it.
For us this is madness, but for Russia it’s just a very effective business model - lose some to gain more.
They’ve been doing it for 500 years and that’s how they’ve  became the largest country in the world.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 3:53:12 PM EDT
[#15]
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Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

Pre-war population was about 31K. It wasn't even the size of a county.

Russian chatter has casualties around 16K.

And the tactics they used were insane. Were they drugging their infantry? Seriously, how did they get so many people to do that? Small groups advancing under fire, no armor, hiding in rubble until a large enough group survived to make a short-range wave attack to overwhelm defenders. The true exchange ratio must be horrifying. How does Russia keep getting troops doing this stuff?
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This is what is most concerning to me, and why I would not underestimate Russian troops or other forces from totalitarian states. Their soldiers and populations put up with losses that the USA and western Europe could just not stomach. They take horrific losses and just keep coming. So while our quality might be better, Russia has been to keep up the pressure.

I want Ukraine to win, and think we've done a very poor job of supplying enough equipment, but I can't help being concerned about such an adversary. Poland and the Baltic states would most likely put in a mighty effort if the conflict gets larger, but does anyone think a country like Germany would take hundreds or even thousands of casualties a week and not call for negotiations? We need to seriously provide much more equipment to Ukraine and end this.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 4:40:18 PM EDT
[#16]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



You can set up a simulator for yourself at home using the Steel Beasts Pro simulator.

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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By 4xGM300m:
Neat!



Video.



You can set up a simulator for yourself at home using the Steel Beasts Pro simulator.



No, I can't, my sort of housemate would hit me with a big stick.



Link Posted: 2/20/2024 4:46:55 PM EDT
[#17]
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Originally Posted By HikerB:

This is what is most concerning to me, and why I would not underestimate Russian troops or other forces from totalitarian states. Their soldiers and populations put up with losses that the USA and western Europe could just not stomach. They take horrific losses and just keep coming. So while our quality might be better, Russia has been to keep up the pressure.

I want Ukraine to win, and think we've done a very poor job of supplying enough equipment, but I can't help being concerned about such an adversary. Poland and the Baltic states would most likely put in a mighty effort if the conflict gets larger, but does anyone think a country like Germany would take hundreds or even thousands of casualties a week and not call for negotiations? We need to seriously provide much more equipment to Ukraine and end this.
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On the other hand, I do not see any possibility of them pushing further west for at least a decade. The material and men expended to go as far as they have is mind blowing.

You go any further west and you are dealing with actual modern western weapons. Good luck.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 5:09:08 PM EDT
[#18]
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Originally Posted By burnka871:



On the other hand, I do not see any possibility of them pushing further west for at least a decade. The material and men expended to go as far as they have is mind blowing.

You go any further west and you are dealing with actual modern western weapons. Good luck.
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Most of the modern equipment has been donated to Ukraine. Poland has a lot on order, but that's paper now.
If Putin makes "only a minor incursion", who is going invoke article 5, which requires a unanimous vote?  Certainly not Biden.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 5:34:49 PM EDT
[#19]
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Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

Pre-war population was about 31K. It wasn't even the size of a county.

Russian chatter has casualties around 16K.

And the tactics they used were insane. Were they drugging their infantry? Seriously, how did they get so many people to do that? Small groups advancing under fire, no armor, hiding in rubble until a large enough group survived to make a short-range wave attack to overwhelm defenders. The true exchange ratio must be horrifying. How does Russia keep getting troops doing this stuff?
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Vodka
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 5:37:47 PM EDT
[#20]
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Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

You hit on an important point: the State Department has been totally inept for over a generation. State's Iraq policy was extremely screwed up, too. I don't think Presidents of either party have an idea about what is needed or how to change. I think State is like the FBI: corrupt and in need of being razed to the ground and rebuilt.
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Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:
Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly:
Sadly, I got to live this in Afghanistan.  There was really never a workable strategy, and State managed to make things objectively worse regarding corruption, child abuse/exploitation, drug trafficking, you name it.  The real problem was that there was never a strategy by the Bush White House other than take down the Taliban and install a friendly government.  However, it was too tempting for John Kerry and the Democrats in the 2004 election to commit to the "good" war in order to contrast this to the invasion of Iraq.  Afghanistan was a sideshow that turned into a quagmire in the absence of a strategy and a State Department that serially failed to understand that we couldn't stay there forever, and that by undermining the justification for the Iraq effort (where we at least had a major strategic interest and something resembling a strategic way forward) they also undermined the justification for our efforts in Afghanistan (where we really didn't have a strategic vision).  To top off the whole fiasco, the current maladministration threw away whatever policies we had in AFG that vaguely resembled strategic thought to cut and run in time for a 9/11 speech talking point (which naturally was never delivered).  Maybe I'm just bitter, but I expect nothing but incompetence at the National/Strategic level from the current occupant of the White House!

You hit on an important point: the State Department has been totally inept for over a generation. State's Iraq policy was extremely screwed up, too. I don't think Presidents of either party have an idea about what is needed or how to change. I think State is like the FBI: corrupt and in need of being razed to the ground and rebuilt.

Totally Concur:  Little known fact, Blackwater was hired by State, not the DoD, and most of the "shooting up intersections" incidents (where they actually happened and were not embellished/fabricated accounts) were defending State personnel/assets at the direction of the State security folks who wrote about the most permissive RoE imaginable (short of "recon-by-fire") for their own folks while they were advocating for CENTCOM to tighten the leash to reduce RoE incidents by US Troops.  And let's not even mention the goatscrew that was the Coalition Provisional Authority!
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 5:45:19 PM EDT
[#21]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
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Good Shoot!
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 5:51:12 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Saltwater-Hillbilly] [#22]
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:

Thank you again for the detailed info. Daemon as well for details.

I can imagine the "useless feeling" of being assigned to a Stinger unit in the middle of the GWOT. Now ADA are superstars and will probably demand their own beret color soon. Maybe light blue...
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:
Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly:


2002.  At the time, we were GWOT-focused and UAS systems were not considered a big threat in the 2000's.  SHORAD ADA was considered obsolescent, and 8 of our ten Short-Range ADA Active Duty battalions were inactivated to free up personnel and assets for additional Cavalry squadrons.  Not until around 2008 did SENTINEL radar become a priority again when Brigade Combat Teams in Iraq stated to demand them for Airspace Surveillance, since they are a quick way to deconflict airspace in a pinch and most of the better Brigade/Battalion commanders determined very quickly that knowing what was flying around over them was a good thing.  Around 2011-ish, the Fires Center at Fort Sill started to launch red-star clusters on the threat of UAV's (later changed to UAS for Unmanned Aerial Systems).  Needless to say, everyone thought this was a good thing; the problem is big, as UAS range from little tiny things that can fit in the palm of your hand and fly at around 50' max to stuff that is the size of a commuter airliner that flies at up to 60,000ish feet.  Needless to say, we developed a lot of cool things; getting them funded was another issue.  One problem we had with getting STINGER upgraded was that it was seen as an "old" system that was borderline obsolescent and the amounts we were allowed to SLEP (service-life extension program) was limited to the # required for US needs and certain allies for 15 years.  At the time, we had a stockpile of above four figures of STINGER and the plan was to demil the excess (which is where, along with some FA munitions, I learned about demil costs).  It didn't help that we had an administration at the time (Obama) that wanted to get rid of all cluster munitions and MANPAD systems because those are icky.

Thank you again for the detailed info. Daemon as well for details.

I can imagine the "useless feeling" of being assigned to a Stinger unit in the middle of the GWOT. Now ADA are superstars and will probably demand their own beret color soon. Maybe light blue...


Artillery Crimson or Gold Please!  We'll share it with the Field Artillery bros.  I really don't want to be mistaken for something as worthless as a UN Peacekeeper!
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 5:54:28 PM EDT
[#23]
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Originally Posted By lorazepam:

Just so you know, the Ukrainians do the same thing when a trench is hot and they are actively clearing a line. You don't have the manpower or time to take prisoners when half the trench is shooting at you. When you get to the end of the line, you deal with the survivors. War is nasty like that.
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Originally Posted By lorazepam:
Originally Posted By SgtRock2:



I would like to see AFU start clearings russian dugouts with flame throwers and WP grenades.

Just so you know, the Ukrainians do the same thing when a trench is hot and they are actively clearing a line. You don't have the manpower or time to take prisoners when half the trench is shooting at you. When you get to the end of the line, you deal with the survivors. War is nasty like that.

Easterner’s Garand Thumb video, the American basically said exactly that.

Link Posted: 2/20/2024 6:05:56 PM EDT
[#24]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


Yes.


https://armamentresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ARES-Special-Report-No.-4-Munitions-Employing-Sensor-fuzed-Submunitions.pdf


XM-1128

https://ndiastorage.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/ndia/2011/gunmissile/Tuesday11528_Nguyen.pdf

Notice the number produced by 2007.






This is how you get around the ickyness of cluster munitions, you purchase ones that actually are not considered to be so, while being smart weapons that require much fewer rounds to do the job.  Or you add hundreds of thousands of tungsten pellets around a standard HE round, and put a PGK fuze on it to also fill a similar role.

Or, if you have thousands of strike aircraft with millions of guided bombs, tens of thousands of long range cruise missiles, you can shuttle the bomb truck aircraft back and forth multiple times a day to the targets and pound the enemy that way, at further range than most 155mm artillery in the first place.  It is good to have options.

http://www.the-monitor.org/en-gb/reports/2020/united-states/cluster-munition-ban-policy.aspx



The M999 submunition round is called the XM1208

https://www.highergov.com/contract-opportunity/the-155-millimeter-high-explosives-he-advanced-w15qkn-23-x-0vte-r-22823/



These are next generation rounds, but it doesn't mean we aren't making the M795 at accelerated rates.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M795_projectile



So you don't need as many, the more accurate they are.  Or put the PGK fuze on the older rounds we have in the inventory, since those are guaranteed to be accurate to less than 30 meters.  M795 has been produced and stockpiled since 1999.  Replaces the older M107 stockpile.
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:
Dud rate is too high for procurement but not for use.

Thanks for clarification.

ETA - more digging suggests that the political leadership also may ban use. XM1128 looks like it's still not in production, and I also don't see that M999 from Israel (more outsourcing!) was ever confirmed. DPICM is Schrodinger's artillery shell - it can't be used, but there's no replacement so we can't get rid of it. We don't want it, but if there was a war, we would want it then.


Yes.


https://armamentresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ARES-Special-Report-No.-4-Munitions-Employing-Sensor-fuzed-Submunitions.pdf


XM-1128

https://ndiastorage.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/ndia/2011/gunmissile/Tuesday11528_Nguyen.pdf

Notice the number produced by 2007.
SMArt submunitions have also been integrated into GMLRS rockets, with
each rocket carrying four submunitions (GIWS, n.d.). More than 20,000 SMArt submunitions have been
produced (Wich, 2007)


Of the five munitions examined in this report, the SMArt 155, M898 SADARM, and 155 BONUS are not
considered to be ‘cluster munitions’ under the definition incorporated in the CCM.


According to, Colonel Thomas G. Torrence and Lieutenant Colonel Noel T. Nicolle, two senior officers from
the U.S. Army’s 3rd Division Artillery who employed the M898 SADARM projectiles in Iraq in 2003, “SADARM
was so effective that maneuver commanders asked to use it to destroy stationary vehicles rather than using
massed artillery”. They also noted the drawbacks of traditional ‘dumb’ dual-purpose improved conventional
munitions (DPICM) submunitions, which, unlike sensor-fuzed submunitions, generally do not automatically
self-destruct or disarm, saying “When the division entered the Baghdad area, HE consumption doubled
because of the concern with dud-producing munitions” (Nicolle & Torrence, 2003). SMSgt Knight, the JTAC
who employed 16 CBU-105 munitions in 2003, noted “a lot of times, CBUs21 cannot be used on the ground
when you’re going to have follow-on friendly forces go through the area because of the dud rate… we felt
very comfortable [with] the CBU-105, having a zero dud rate”22 (Textron, n.d.).


This is how you get around the ickyness of cluster munitions, you purchase ones that actually are not considered to be so, while being smart weapons that require much fewer rounds to do the job.  Or you add hundreds of thousands of tungsten pellets around a standard HE round, and put a PGK fuze on it to also fill a similar role.

Or, if you have thousands of strike aircraft with millions of guided bombs, tens of thousands of long range cruise missiles, you can shuttle the bomb truck aircraft back and forth multiple times a day to the targets and pound the enemy that way, at further range than most 155mm artillery in the first place.  It is good to have options.

http://www.the-monitor.org/en-gb/reports/2020/united-states/cluster-munition-ban-policy.aspx

All cluster munition stocks that exceed or do not satisfy operational planning requirements were removed by the service and combatant commands from the active inventory by June 2009.

The now-reversed 2008 policy required that the Department of Defense relinquish more than 99.9% of its cluster munition stocks by the end of 2018, as only the CBU-105 Sensor Fuzed Weapon met the less than 1% UXO requirement.

According to a March 2019 Department of Defense budget request, “Currently, there are approximately 93,766 tons of cluster munitions” in the demilitarization account known as ‘B5A.’” The document states that an additional 203,024 tons of cluster munitions remain in CONUS outside the B5A, while another 91,362 cluster munitions are “OCONUS” or not scheduled for destruction.


The M999 submunition round is called the XM1208

https://www.highergov.com/contract-opportunity/the-155-millimeter-high-explosives-he-advanced-w15qkn-23-x-0vte-r-22823/

55MM XM1208 Projectile:

The Army Contracting Command - New Jersey (ACC-NJ), on behalf of the U.S. Army Office of the Project Manager (PM) Combat Ammunition Systems (CAS) is conducting a market survey to identify potential sources for a 155mm, anti-personnel/anti-materiel Projectile. The product will provide U.S. ground forces with a capability to effectively engage imprecisely located enemies within an area, emphasizing personnel and light materiel missions. This product will support the Dual-Purpose, Improved Conventional Munition (DPICM) replacement strategy.

The 155 millimeter High Explosives (HE), Advanced Submunitions: XM1208 Projectile must be capable of defeating personnel and light materiel in a Global Positioning System (GPS) denied environment from US Army 155mm howitzers (M777A2 or M109A6/7). The 155mm HE, Advanced Submunitions: XM1208 Projectile must replace 155mm DPICM stockpiles with a DoD cluster munition policy compliant capability which will broaden the target set, enhance lethality, and extend the reach of the current cannon platforms beyond the current DPICM capability.


These are next generation rounds, but it doesn't mean we aren't making the M795 at accelerated rates.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M795_projectile

In mid-2005, United Defense demonstrated a cost-effective system to improve cannon artillery accuracy with the successful firing of inert M795 155 mm projectiles equipped with a two-directional Course Correcting Fuze (CCF). United Defense developed this new system together with Bofors Defence, Rockwell Collins and BT Fuze Products.

Course correction uses GPS to provide high accuracy. It can be employed on all types of U.S. 155 mm and 105 mm projectiles in the U.S. Field Artillery inventory.

United Defense successfully fired M795 rounds equipped with the CCF from an M109A6 Paladin, to ranges of 14.5 kilometers at Yuma Proving Ground. Preliminary analysis from the demonstration confirmed United Defense's laboratory analysis. The projectiles equipped with the CCF achieved a precision error of less than 50 meters, three times better than the control rounds.


So you don't need as many, the more accurate they are.  Or put the PGK fuze on the older rounds we have in the inventory, since those are guaranteed to be accurate to less than 30 meters.  M795 has been produced and stockpiled since 1999.  Replaces the older M107 stockpile.


Boy, some familiar names quoted in that post!
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 6:12:12 PM EDT
[#25]
Some older footage of a repelled Russian assault.

Link Posted: 2/20/2024 6:14:19 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#26]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly:


Boy, some familiar names quoted in that post!
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Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:
Dud rate is too high for procurement but not for use.

Thanks for clarification.

ETA - more digging suggests that the political leadership also may ban use. XM1128 looks like it's still not in production, and I also don't see that M999 from Israel (more outsourcing!) was ever confirmed. DPICM is Schrodinger's artillery shell - it can't be used, but there's no replacement so we can't get rid of it. We don't want it, but if there was a war, we would want it then.


Yes.


https://armamentresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ARES-Special-Report-No.-4-Munitions-Employing-Sensor-fuzed-Submunitions.pdf


XM-1128

https://ndiastorage.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/ndia/2011/gunmissile/Tuesday11528_Nguyen.pdf

Notice the number produced by 2007.
SMArt submunitions have also been integrated into GMLRS rockets, with
each rocket carrying four submunitions (GIWS, n.d.). More than 20,000 SMArt submunitions have been
produced (Wich, 2007)


Of the five munitions examined in this report, the SMArt 155, M898 SADARM, and 155 BONUS are not
considered to be ‘cluster munitions’ under the definition incorporated in the CCM.


According to, Colonel Thomas G. Torrence and Lieutenant Colonel Noel T. Nicolle, two senior officers from
the U.S. Army’s 3rd Division Artillery who employed the M898 SADARM projectiles in Iraq in 2003, “SADARM
was so effective that maneuver commanders asked to use it to destroy stationary vehicles rather than using
massed artillery”. They also noted the drawbacks of traditional ‘dumb’ dual-purpose improved conventional
munitions (DPICM) submunitions, which, unlike sensor-fuzed submunitions, generally do not automatically
self-destruct or disarm, saying “When the division entered the Baghdad area, HE consumption doubled
because of the concern with dud-producing munitions” (Nicolle & Torrence, 2003). SMSgt Knight, the JTAC
who employed 16 CBU-105 munitions in 2003, noted “a lot of times, CBUs21 cannot be used on the ground
when you’re going to have follow-on friendly forces go through the area because of the dud rate… we felt
very comfortable [with] the CBU-105, having a zero dud rate”22 (Textron, n.d.).


This is how you get around the ickyness of cluster munitions, you purchase ones that actually are not considered to be so, while being smart weapons that require much fewer rounds to do the job.  Or you add hundreds of thousands of tungsten pellets around a standard HE round, and put a PGK fuze on it to also fill a similar role.

Or, if you have thousands of strike aircraft with millions of guided bombs, tens of thousands of long range cruise missiles, you can shuttle the bomb truck aircraft back and forth multiple times a day to the targets and pound the enemy that way, at further range than most 155mm artillery in the first place.  It is good to have options.

http://www.the-monitor.org/en-gb/reports/2020/united-states/cluster-munition-ban-policy.aspx

All cluster munition stocks that exceed or do not satisfy operational planning requirements were removed by the service and combatant commands from the active inventory by June 2009.

The now-reversed 2008 policy required that the Department of Defense relinquish more than 99.9% of its cluster munition stocks by the end of 2018, as only the CBU-105 Sensor Fuzed Weapon met the less than 1% UXO requirement.

According to a March 2019 Department of Defense budget request, “Currently, there are approximately 93,766 tons of cluster munitions” in the demilitarization account known as ‘B5A.’” The document states that an additional 203,024 tons of cluster munitions remain in CONUS outside the B5A, while another 91,362 cluster munitions are “OCONUS” or not scheduled for destruction.


The M999 submunition round is called the XM1208

https://www.highergov.com/contract-opportunity/the-155-millimeter-high-explosives-he-advanced-w15qkn-23-x-0vte-r-22823/

55MM XM1208 Projectile:

The Army Contracting Command - New Jersey (ACC-NJ), on behalf of the U.S. Army Office of the Project Manager (PM) Combat Ammunition Systems (CAS) is conducting a market survey to identify potential sources for a 155mm, anti-personnel/anti-materiel Projectile. The product will provide U.S. ground forces with a capability to effectively engage imprecisely located enemies within an area, emphasizing personnel and light materiel missions. This product will support the Dual-Purpose, Improved Conventional Munition (DPICM) replacement strategy.

The 155 millimeter High Explosives (HE), Advanced Submunitions: XM1208 Projectile must be capable of defeating personnel and light materiel in a Global Positioning System (GPS) denied environment from US Army 155mm howitzers (M777A2 or M109A6/7). The 155mm HE, Advanced Submunitions: XM1208 Projectile must replace 155mm DPICM stockpiles with a DoD cluster munition policy compliant capability which will broaden the target set, enhance lethality, and extend the reach of the current cannon platforms beyond the current DPICM capability.


These are next generation rounds, but it doesn't mean we aren't making the M795 at accelerated rates.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M795_projectile

In mid-2005, United Defense demonstrated a cost-effective system to improve cannon artillery accuracy with the successful firing of inert M795 155 mm projectiles equipped with a two-directional Course Correcting Fuze (CCF). United Defense developed this new system together with Bofors Defence, Rockwell Collins and BT Fuze Products.

Course correction uses GPS to provide high accuracy. It can be employed on all types of U.S. 155 mm and 105 mm projectiles in the U.S. Field Artillery inventory.

United Defense successfully fired M795 rounds equipped with the CCF from an M109A6 Paladin, to ranges of 14.5 kilometers at Yuma Proving Ground. Preliminary analysis from the demonstration confirmed United Defense's laboratory analysis. The projectiles equipped with the CCF achieved a precision error of less than 50 meters, three times better than the control rounds.


So you don't need as many, the more accurate they are.  Or put the PGK fuze on the older rounds we have in the inventory, since those are guaranteed to be accurate to less than 30 meters.  M795 has been produced and stockpiled since 1999.  Replaces the older M107 stockpile.


Boy, some familiar names quoted in that post!



lol.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 6:27:00 PM EDT
[#27]
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 6:29:43 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#28]
Reported as the himars strike on a training ground.












Sakhalin Island near Japan, so he could make a speech encouraging them to kill the Ukrainians. At that very moment, three Ukrainian HIMARS rockets visited this party in Trudivske settlement in the occupied Donbas region liquidating at least 65 Russian soldiers and wounding more.  
View Quote




Other reports are saying he did not show up when the strike happened.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 6:47:17 PM EDT
[#29]
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Originally Posted By Fltot:
I think that we evaluate the war from our perspective.
We place a very high value on our soldiers and go way out of our way to ensure that our casualties are minimal.
For Putin the equation probably looks a lot differently - yeah, he lost 300-400k troops, mostly minorities and prisoners , but he gained millions of Ukrainians in the occupied territories so from his point of view the Ukraine war is a success - now he has more land and more subjects that he had before he started it.
For us this is madness, but for Russia it’s just a very effective business model - lose some to gain more.
They’ve been doing it for 500 years and that’s how they’ve  became the largest country in the world.
View Quote

Great point. This is perspective lacking among most Western leaders. Russia really doesn’t factor human casualties into its war making calculus.


Link Posted: 2/20/2024 6:55:44 PM EDT
[#30]
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Originally Posted By HikerB:

This is what is most concerning to me, and why I would not underestimate Russian troops or other forces from totalitarian states. Their soldiers and populations put up with losses that the USA and western Europe could just not stomach. They take horrific losses and just keep coming. So while our quality might be better, Russia has been to keep up the pressure.

I want Ukraine to win, and think we've done a very poor job of supplying enough equipment, but I can't help being concerned about such an adversary. Poland and the Baltic states would most likely put in a mighty effort if the conflict gets larger, but does anyone think a country like Germany would take hundreds or even thousands of casualties a week and not call for negotiations? We need to seriously provide much more equipment to Ukraine and end this.
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Originally Posted By HikerB:
Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

Pre-war population was about 31K. It wasn't even the size of a county.

Russian chatter has casualties around 16K.

And the tactics they used were insane. Were they drugging their infantry? Seriously, how did they get so many people to do that? Small groups advancing under fire, no armor, hiding in rubble until a large enough group survived to make a short-range wave attack to overwhelm defenders. The true exchange ratio must be horrifying. How does Russia keep getting troops doing this stuff?

This is what is most concerning to me, and why I would not underestimate Russian troops or other forces from totalitarian states. Their soldiers and populations put up with losses that the USA and western Europe could just not stomach. They take horrific losses and just keep coming. So while our quality might be better, Russia has been to keep up the pressure.

I want Ukraine to win, and think we've done a very poor job of supplying enough equipment, but I can't help being concerned about such an adversary. Poland and the Baltic states would most likely put in a mighty effort if the conflict gets larger, but does anyone think a country like Germany would take hundreds or even thousands of casualties a week and not call for negotiations? We need to seriously provide much more equipment to Ukraine and end this.

Agree that Europe has not examined this war and reflected on how bad it will be for them if Ukraine is allowed to fall and Russia is working forward from the Polish border with all of Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria and Baltics added to its war machine.

Europe’s weapons stockpiles are no match for the hybrid war Russia would bring to them. Especially if they are afraid to escalate.

If you purposefully choose to not use any more violent weapon than your enemy uses and you refuse to attack his home sanctuary, YOU WILL LOSE u less you have vastly more stockpiles and human meat than he. Europe is on the losing side if that equation.

Their best hope is to flood Ukraine with everything possible now when it can be more effective then to wait to use them in Poland or Germany or Finland.


Link Posted: 2/20/2024 7:00:18 PM EDT
[#31]
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Originally Posted By RockNwood:

Agree that Europe has not examined this war and reflected on how bad it will be for them if Ukraine is allowed to fall and Russia is working forward from the Polish border with all of Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria and Baltics added to its war machine.

Europe’s weapons stockpiles are no match for the hybrid war Russia would bring to them. Especially if they are afraid to escalate.

If you purposefully choose to not use any more violent weapon than your enemy uses and you refuse to attack his home sanctuary, YOU WILL LOSE u less you have vastly more stockpiles and human meat than he. Europe is on the losing side if that equation.

Their best hope is to flood Ukraine with everything possible now when it can be more effective then to wait to use them in Poland or Germany or Finland.

View Quote


Russia has a total population of like 127 million.  It's not the Soviet Union by any means.  Reduce that to fit, military-capable males and no way Russia will beat Europe based on manpower.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 7:01:18 PM EDT
[#32]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Fltot:
I think that we evaluate the war from our perspective.
We place a very high value on our soldiers and go way out of our way to ensure that our casualties are minimal.
For Putin the equation probably looks a lot differently - yeah, he lost 300-400k troops, mostly minorities and prisoners , but he gained millions of Ukrainians in the occupied territories so from his point of view the Ukraine war is a success - now he has more land and more subjects that he had before he started it.
For us this is madness, but for Russia it’s just a very effective business model - lose some to gain more.
They’ve been doing it for 500 years and that’s how they’ve  became the largest country in the world.
View Quote

It's the bias of expecting others to think the same way you do, or to think with similar values & priorities. It's a complete fallacy.

Putin, Xi, and their people deride the western order we've created in the world. One of the fundamental differences is that we've spent decades teaching everyone (in our culture) to believe that life is sacred, that every person is worth saving. LOTS of the world does not share that value. In Africa, Mideast (except Israel), Asia (which contains most of Russia), life is cheap, and the leaders act accordingly.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 7:04:39 PM EDT
[#33]
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 7:09:16 PM EDT
[#34]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By lukus:
6 jets in 3 days.  I've not been able keep track of all the posts on this, but I think the general consensus is that Ukraine is moving Patriot systems within range, acquiring targets and firing, and then packing up and moving out quick.  Every time a plane goes down, there's telegram posts with Russian helicopters doing search and rescue, sometimes multiple helicopters.  I know they've got to scoot as soon as they fire, but man, it'd be awesome to see them hang long enough to splash some of the s&r helicopters.  That would be so demoralizing to those Russian air units.
View Quote


I think the chances of loitering munitions is so high they have to move very quickly. We're hearing a lot about the Patriot. I'm wondering if the SAMP-T and Aster are up and running. Those are supposed to be more mobile systems. Seems like a few more Patriot/SAMP-Ts would be greatly beneficial though. Russia has largely been avoiding air casualties for a while but now that seemingly a single Patriot is in play they loose 2-3 planes every time one sets up. Imagine what a few roaming Patriots/SAMP-Ts can do.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 7:12:48 PM EDT
[#35]
i expected way more visible damage from a rocket strike.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 7:14:15 PM EDT
[#36]
1420 - has Putin made any mistakes? What about the SMO? Watch to see popular support for the president and the war.
Has Putin made any mistakes over 24 years?


Anything make you go ? How about that claim that Ukraine invaded Russia first?
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 7:16:38 PM EDT
[Last Edit: RockNwood] [#37]
Military aircraft landing without landing gear down causes more serious damage than a paint touch up. Does this cause severe structural damage or easily replaced with new Stronk skid plate?

Sparks and flame video…



Link Posted: 2/20/2024 7:18:21 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#38]
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No craters, these guys were hit with the tungsten express.


Link Posted: 2/20/2024 7:22:13 PM EDT
[Last Edit: RockNwood] [#39]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Bartholomew_Roberts:


Russia has a total population of like 127 million.  It's not the Soviet Union by any means.  Reduce that to fit, military-capable males and no way Russia will beat Europe based on manpower.
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Originally Posted By Bartholomew_Roberts:
Originally Posted By RockNwood:

Agree that Europe has not examined this war and reflected on how bad it will be for them if Ukraine is allowed to fall and Russia is working forward from the Polish border with all of Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria and Baltics added to its war machine.

Europe’s weapons stockpiles are no match for the hybrid war Russia would bring to them. Especially if they are afraid to escalate.

If you purposefully choose to not use any more violent weapon than your enemy uses and you refuse to attack his home sanctuary, YOU WILL LOSE u less you have vastly more stockpiles and human meat than he. Europe is on the losing side if that equation.

Their best hope is to flood Ukraine with everything possible now when it can be more effective then to wait to use them in Poland or Germany or Finland.



Russia has a total population of like 127 million.  It's not the Soviet Union by any means.  Reduce that to fit, military-capable males and no way Russia will beat Europe based on manpower.

With the other countries it assimilates before going into Poland Russia will add about 70 million.

If they use hybrid tactics at what point does Europe go all in? Just the tip? And what exactly will they fight with and not overly escalate? Perhaps you have more knowledge of Europes willingness to fight but I have seen zero evidence any European country is
A) able to take on Russia alone
B) Willing to give meat and bone to another country to do so



Link Posted: 2/20/2024 7:23:39 PM EDT
[#40]
Real Ukraine asking people about Zaluzhny's dismissal
Ukrainians: About Top General Replacement | Street Interview
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 7:29:45 PM EDT
[#41]
It’s been over 2 months since Gerasimov was last seen. This has been very hushed on the Russian side.



Link Posted: 2/20/2024 7:33:24 PM EDT
[Last Edit: RockNwood] [#42]
A little more info on the American recently detained. Her pro-Ukraine activity was in the US. But man, even if she has family still in the USSR Russia, DONT GO THERE! Stay in the US where you can protest all you want.



Not anywhere near the mirror of Gonzola Lira. He was actively aiding Russian targeting inside Ukraine. This woman appears to have only protested for Ukraine but did no aiding of Ukraine (apparently, unless she fund raised?).