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Link Posted: 1/13/2024 12:12:28 PM EDT
[#1]
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 12:12:35 PM EDT
[#2]
Russian motivation…
The problem is they will freeze in the trenches too. Will be interesting to see how well this tactic works.


Link Posted: 1/13/2024 12:18:07 PM EDT
[#3]
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 12:18:23 PM EDT
[#4]
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I don't remember that guy....was he a US citizen who went traitor and joined Russian military?  Published pro-Russian propaganda? Sabotage?  Espionage?  All of the above?
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 12:22:56 PM EDT
[#5]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:





There is, SM-6.  

Air launching it would give an already known 200 mile range missile even more range.  But you need to fly out there part way to use it regardless of the weapon.
https://aviationweek.com/sites/default/files/styles/crop_freeform/public/2021-04/174113536_10216934427306795_1706156476083338582_n.jpg?itok=lJuoS-yX






That would be the AIM-120 "D" series, which is publicly listed at 100 miles. Or if you needed even more range, the AIM-260 JATM.



Hopefully this page showing IRIS-T and NASAMS will be helpful.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htada/articles/20230710.aspx#:~:text=The%20IRIS%2DT%20missile%20has,a%20range%20of%2030%20kilometers
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By fadedsun:
Originally Posted By GTLandser:



I'm no AF or ADA expert, but I think a critical difference is that Ukraine will have a shitload of "behind the scenes" support. They will have a bunch of information from NATO surveillance aircraft, their own friendly ADA network, and a bunch of other intel sources we don't even know about.

I bet Ukrainian air planners are pretty good, and they have been getting radically better since the war started. After all, mil-mil collaboration with NATO dudes is probably pre-authorized, and just a phone call away.

Nobody wants to waste aircraft or pilots, so I am pretty sure that the collaboration and coordination will be pretty tight, for the simple reasons of getting results, and avoiding bad PR.

This is in contrast to the VVS, where it's all Putler explaining to his Generals that Steiner's attack on the Pankow district will surely bring everything back in order...



I don’t think there are any western weapons capable of hitting the bears that far behind the lines.

Maybe it’s time for a modern version of the phoenix.

Side note: Anyone have a video of page explaining the differences between the iris t and the nasams?

All I get on Yt are the generic spam sites



I don’t think there are any western weapons capable of hitting the bears that far behind the lines.


There is, SM-6.  

Air launching it would give an already known 200 mile range missile even more range.  But you need to fly out there part way to use it regardless of the weapon.
https://aviationweek.com/sites/default/files/styles/crop_freeform/public/2021-04/174113536_10216934427306795_1706156476083338582_n.jpg?itok=lJuoS-yX

It has been reported that after the 2024 fiscal year, the MRC ground-based missile complex will be integrated with a new variant of the SM-6 missile called SM-6 Block IV, which is expected to have a hypersonic (exceeding Mach 5) speed and an increased range for targeting ground and surface targets, estimated at up to 400 miles (740 kilometres). These enhanced capabilities will be achieved by equipping the missile with a larger-diameter solid rocket motor (21 inches or 533 millimetres), replacing the standard 13.5-inch (343-millimetre) solid rocket motor used on current SM-6 missiles, while simultaneously reducing the size of the missile’s fins and stabilisers to fit within the diameter of the Mk 41 Universal Vertical Launch System cells. The SM-6 Block IV missile is also expected to have a more powerful warhead (the current SM-6 missile has a warhead weighing only 140 pounds or 64 kilograms).



Maybe it’s time for a modern version of the phoenix.


That would be the AIM-120 "D" series, which is publicly listed at 100 miles. Or if you needed even more range, the AIM-260 JATM.



Hopefully this page showing IRIS-T and NASAMS will be helpful.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htada/articles/20230710.aspx#:~:text=The%20IRIS%2DT%20missile%20has,a%20range%20of%2030%20kilometers



Half of the range that is needed to kill the bears.  

Link Posted: 1/13/2024 12:23:12 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#6]
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Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:
So far no real updates on Patriot Canada promised to donate
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Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:
So far no real updates on Patriot Canada promised to donate


It was a NASAMS unit, not a Patriot.

Canada sent the funds to the U.S. to have the unit built, it is among 4 other units puchased for Ukraine since last year and was in the build queue.

Canada will not be delivering the Unit, Raytheon will be when it is complete.

The 5 NASAMS units purchased last year are all expected to be delivered this year.


There was some horse trading going on, since other countries had their orders in earlier Ukraine was further down the queue for build up of a unit.  Some countries offered to have their NASAMS built up later and the Ukrainian unit put in their place.

This guy gets it, the entire battalion has to be built from scratch and Ukrainian crews trained on it.




From 2022:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/pentagon-award-12-bln-contract-raytheon-ukrainian-nasams-source-document-2022-11-30/

The U.S. Army awarded a $1.2 billion contract to Raytheon Technologies Co (RTX.N) for six National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) for Ukraine on Wednesday, the Pentagon said.

The United States has approved sending Ukraine a total of eight NASAMS to help fend off Russian missile and drone attacks.

Ukraine received its first delivery of two NASAMS air defense systems in November. Others will be delivered in future months once they are built.


These aren't single units, again they are the entire complete system.




https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/missile-defense-weapons/how-raytheon-rapidly-surged-air-defenses-ukraine

the Ukrainian government asked the U.S. for urgently needed help. The initial U.S. response was that it usually takes two years to get a system on contract, then two more to build and deliver it—about a 4-5-year process.

Ukraine’s reaction, according to an official involved at Raytheon, a division of RTX, was: “Are you kidding me?”


That exchange spurred Raytheon and partner Kongsberg to break records by begging, borrowing and “stealing” equipment to rapidly surge the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (Nasams) to Ukrainian forces, which were using it to defend population centers by the end of 2022. The system is now a crucial piece of Ukraine’s networked air defenses, with successive deliveries of aid from the U.S., including more ammunition for the launchers.

“The main driver for this program was the motivation and the people,” Laura Bear, Raytheon’s program manager for medium-range air defense, said in a presentation at Aviation Week’s A&D Programs Conference on Nov. 8. “I think we made it very clear throughout the organization that every single person played an incredibly important part in this program. Whether you were logistics packaging a box, whether you were the guy turning a screw on the floor of the factory, your efforts within days or weeks could be implemented and needed in Ukraine.”

The procurement was the first Foreign Military Sales case for the Nasams, and it involved a customer within the U.S. government—the Army’s Program Executive Office Missiles and Space—that was not aware beforehand it would be facilitating a transfer to Ukraine. The office had also never previously worked with Nasams.

To speed up delivery, the U.S. government gave Raytheon Nasams kits from its stocks and asked the company for reimbursement instead of contracting new-build equipment. With that expediency, two kits were sold and shipped off within one day of contract award, Bear said


Link Posted: 1/13/2024 12:24:03 PM EDT
[#7]
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Originally Posted By 4xGM300m:



Half of the range that is needed to kill the bears.  

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Originally Posted By 4xGM300m:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By fadedsun:
Originally Posted By GTLandser:



I'm no AF or ADA expert, but I think a critical difference is that Ukraine will have a shitload of "behind the scenes" support. They will have a bunch of information from NATO surveillance aircraft, their own friendly ADA network, and a bunch of other intel sources we don't even know about.

I bet Ukrainian air planners are pretty good, and they have been getting radically better since the war started. After all, mil-mil collaboration with NATO dudes is probably pre-authorized, and just a phone call away.

Nobody wants to waste aircraft or pilots, so I am pretty sure that the collaboration and coordination will be pretty tight, for the simple reasons of getting results, and avoiding bad PR.

This is in contrast to the VVS, where it's all Putler explaining to his Generals that Steiner's attack on the Pankow district will surely bring everything back in order...



I don’t think there are any western weapons capable of hitting the bears that far behind the lines.

Maybe it’s time for a modern version of the phoenix.

Side note: Anyone have a video of page explaining the differences between the iris t and the nasams?

All I get on Yt are the generic spam sites



I don’t think there are any western weapons capable of hitting the bears that far behind the lines.


There is, SM-6.  

Air launching it would give an already known 200 mile range missile even more range.  But you need to fly out there part way to use it regardless of the weapon.
https://aviationweek.com/sites/default/files/styles/crop_freeform/public/2021-04/174113536_10216934427306795_1706156476083338582_n.jpg?itok=lJuoS-yX

It has been reported that after the 2024 fiscal year, the MRC ground-based missile complex will be integrated with a new variant of the SM-6 missile called SM-6 Block IV, which is expected to have a hypersonic (exceeding Mach 5) speed and an increased range for targeting ground and surface targets, estimated at up to 400 miles (740 kilometres). These enhanced capabilities will be achieved by equipping the missile with a larger-diameter solid rocket motor (21 inches or 533 millimetres), replacing the standard 13.5-inch (343-millimetre) solid rocket motor used on current SM-6 missiles, while simultaneously reducing the size of the missile’s fins and stabilisers to fit within the diameter of the Mk 41 Universal Vertical Launch System cells. The SM-6 Block IV missile is also expected to have a more powerful warhead (the current SM-6 missile has a warhead weighing only 140 pounds or 64 kilograms).



Maybe it’s time for a modern version of the phoenix.


That would be the AIM-120 "D" series, which is publicly listed at 100 miles. Or if you needed even more range, the AIM-260 JATM.



Hopefully this page showing IRIS-T and NASAMS will be helpful.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htada/articles/20230710.aspx#:~:text=The%20IRIS%2DT%20missile%20has,a%20range%20of%2030%20kilometers



Half of the range that is needed to kill the bears.  




Yes.  You have to fly the other half.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 12:26:04 PM EDT
[#8]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



If you want to keep the engagements simple, as a Ukrainian F-16 pilot, I keep my radar off and fly low in the ground clutter well within the safe coverage of Ukrainian SAM and Patriot sites that will be letting me know when they detect something out there.  I'll get some info from the NATO E-3's on where the Russian aircraft are and their headings as well.  All I have to do then is stay in the clutter and fly close enough to passively launch my AIM-120 C's at them and then quickly turn away back into the clutter and safety of my own ground based SAM network.  Rinse and repeat, any Russian bomber groups trying to fly at medium and high altitude to lob glide bombs is going to get it in the face from the F-16's.  Any Russian jet foolish enough to try and go after an F-16 is going to get picked off from a NASAMS or Patriot.

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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By strykr:
Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
Folks, don't buy into the hype of the mighty Russian Flankers. Go read about the engagement between Pakistani F-16A Block 15 MLU vs. Indian Su-30 MKI from a few years ago. These Pakistani F-16s are very similar to the version being gifted to Ukraine by various European nations and are among the oldest of F-16s still in service. They totally had the Indian Flankers on the defensive during the entire engagement, getting the first shots and controlling the engagement. And the Indian Flankers are among the best and most sophisticated in the world. Next to the Su-35, the Su-30MKI is probably the best Flanker variant in service. After this engagement, the Indians went to the Israelis and had them equip their Flankers for the Israeli Derby active radar missiles because the Russian R-77 Amraamski sucked so terribly. And the Indians started buying more French Rafale fighters because they came to the realization that western fighters are greatly superior to the Russian shit. And don't even get me started on the much hyped Russian R-37 missile. It may have range but it is designed for going after big, lumbering targets like AWACS and tankers. It isn't a dogfight missile and will fare poorly when employed against fighter aircraft that have good situational awareness.

Is this the incident you mentioned? 2 Sukhois vs 8 F-16s? It reads like a small skirmish rather than an all out dogfight. I do not think many would argue that the R-77 is better than the AIM-120. Yet the 3 AIM-120 missiles launched also missed the mark. R-77-1 does have higher range than the R-77 model that India used.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/indian-sukhois-counterattacked-pak-f16-jets-during-2019-combat/
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/india-upgrading-su-30mki-after-pakistani-f-16-outperformed-russian-build-fighter-jets/

While the R-37M would have a lower chance of scoring the hit, it will still force the F-16 to take evasive action or risk getting shot down. Other than the report I've posted about them downing the Su-27 with it, there is also mention of Su-57 using R-37M in Ukraine with a successful kill. But it is hard to tell how reliable these reports are. When the Ukrainian pilot must start the fight dodging 2 R-37M missiles before even getting the first launch, the odds are not in his favor. And the Sukhoi can simply turn around and fly back to Russia, where the Ukrainian fighter cannot follow due to political reasons.

Russia has over 200 Sukhois just from the modern variants, not counting the older Su-27s and such. I think we have a tendency to overestimate the impact of Western fighter jets. It is not just a question of technical superiority, but whether they can be employed in numbers to make an actual difference. The F-16 is a good low cost fighter jet, but there is a reason it is being replaced. Rafale/Eurofighter are modern jets with more modern systems. Plus unlike the F-16, they have the capability to employ the Meteor missile, which seems better than the R-37M.

Sure, well trained pilots will do well against third world countries. But going up against Russian jets with experienced pilots and SAMs on the ground is a different thing altogether. Ukraine has received modern Leopards, yet was not able to employ them nearly as effectively as NATO forces. USAF pilots also fly way more hours than their counterparts. That will not be the case for the green Ukrainian pilots coming out of fighter school. I do not know how "good" the current Ukrainian Mig-29 pilots are. It does not seem to me that they are making a big difference taking out lots of SAM sites, but I could be wrong.

I do hope that the training of Ukrainian pilots is ahead of the reports. Maybe they have lots of trained pilots, just trying to keep it secret until the jets arrive. But from what I see, there is no political will to escalate the fight with Russia. There is little appetite on the West to sacrifice potentially dozens or hundreds of F-16s, while also educating Russia how to best counter them. The reason Ukraine are not getting the fighter jets may simply be because the US does not believe they would be able to employ them effectively and/or are not willing to bear the financial burden of it. That is the decision of the people in power, whether we agree with it or not. I think the only way we'll see significant impact is if a NATO country gets directly involved, flying missions with experienced pilots, which is unlikely.



If you want to keep the engagements simple, as a Ukrainian F-16 pilot, I keep my radar off and fly low in the ground clutter well within the safe coverage of Ukrainian SAM and Patriot sites that will be letting me know when they detect something out there.  I'll get some info from the NATO E-3's on where the Russian aircraft are and their headings as well.  All I have to do then is stay in the clutter and fly close enough to passively launch my AIM-120 C's at them and then quickly turn away back into the clutter and safety of my own ground based SAM network.  Rinse and repeat, any Russian bomber groups trying to fly at medium and high altitude to lob glide bombs is going to get it in the face from the F-16's.  Any Russian jet foolish enough to try and go after an F-16 is going to get picked off from a NASAMS or Patriot.


That reads similar to how they are employing the Su-25s right now. I thought the reason the F-16 needs to fly high is to be able to lob missiles at the SAM sites behind the Russian border. The bombers the Russians use also do not fly over Ukrainian air space. It seems like they are able to hammer Ukraine at will with their current methods. I assume that flying low and passive launch would also negatively affect range, so the F-16 would have to get closer, risking a counter attack. But maybe this strategy would work well against targets in Crimea. Either way, degrading the Russian air force along with their ground forces would be a good thing, so hopefully the experts find a way to achieve that.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 12:39:51 PM EDT
[#9]
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Originally Posted By fadedsun:
I don’t think there are any western weapons capable of hitting the bears that far behind the lines.
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Can Tomahawks reach their air base?
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 12:48:43 PM EDT
[#10]
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Originally Posted By strykr:

That reads similar to how they are employing the Su-25s right now. I thought the reason the F-16 needs to fly high is to be able to lob missiles at the SAM sites behind the Russian border. The bombers the Russians use also do not fly over Ukrainian air space. It seems like they are able to hammer Ukraine at will with their current methods. I assume that flying low and passive launch would also negatively affect range, so the F-16 would have to get closer, risking a counter attack. But maybe this strategy would work well against targets in Crimea. Either way, degrading the Russian air force along with their ground forces would be a good thing, so hopefully the experts find a way to achieve that.
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Originally Posted By strykr:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By strykr:
Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
Folks, don't buy into the hype of the mighty Russian Flankers. Go read about the engagement between Pakistani F-16A Block 15 MLU vs. Indian Su-30 MKI from a few years ago. These Pakistani F-16s are very similar to the version being gifted to Ukraine by various European nations and are among the oldest of F-16s still in service. They totally had the Indian Flankers on the defensive during the entire engagement, getting the first shots and controlling the engagement. And the Indian Flankers are among the best and most sophisticated in the world. Next to the Su-35, the Su-30MKI is probably the best Flanker variant in service. After this engagement, the Indians went to the Israelis and had them equip their Flankers for the Israeli Derby active radar missiles because the Russian R-77 Amraamski sucked so terribly. And the Indians started buying more French Rafale fighters because they came to the realization that western fighters are greatly superior to the Russian shit. And don't even get me started on the much hyped Russian R-37 missile. It may have range but it is designed for going after big, lumbering targets like AWACS and tankers. It isn't a dogfight missile and will fare poorly when employed against fighter aircraft that have good situational awareness.

Is this the incident you mentioned? 2 Sukhois vs 8 F-16s? It reads like a small skirmish rather than an all out dogfight. I do not think many would argue that the R-77 is better than the AIM-120. Yet the 3 AIM-120 missiles launched also missed the mark. R-77-1 does have higher range than the R-77 model that India used.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/indian-sukhois-counterattacked-pak-f16-jets-during-2019-combat/
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/india-upgrading-su-30mki-after-pakistani-f-16-outperformed-russian-build-fighter-jets/

While the R-37M would have a lower chance of scoring the hit, it will still force the F-16 to take evasive action or risk getting shot down. Other than the report I've posted about them downing the Su-27 with it, there is also mention of Su-57 using R-37M in Ukraine with a successful kill. But it is hard to tell how reliable these reports are. When the Ukrainian pilot must start the fight dodging 2 R-37M missiles before even getting the first launch, the odds are not in his favor. And the Sukhoi can simply turn around and fly back to Russia, where the Ukrainian fighter cannot follow due to political reasons.

Russia has over 200 Sukhois just from the modern variants, not counting the older Su-27s and such. I think we have a tendency to overestimate the impact of Western fighter jets. It is not just a question of technical superiority, but whether they can be employed in numbers to make an actual difference. The F-16 is a good low cost fighter jet, but there is a reason it is being replaced. Rafale/Eurofighter are modern jets with more modern systems. Plus unlike the F-16, they have the capability to employ the Meteor missile, which seems better than the R-37M.

Sure, well trained pilots will do well against third world countries. But going up against Russian jets with experienced pilots and SAMs on the ground is a different thing altogether. Ukraine has received modern Leopards, yet was not able to employ them nearly as effectively as NATO forces. USAF pilots also fly way more hours than their counterparts. That will not be the case for the green Ukrainian pilots coming out of fighter school. I do not know how "good" the current Ukrainian Mig-29 pilots are. It does not seem to me that they are making a big difference taking out lots of SAM sites, but I could be wrong.

I do hope that the training of Ukrainian pilots is ahead of the reports. Maybe they have lots of trained pilots, just trying to keep it secret until the jets arrive. But from what I see, there is no political will to escalate the fight with Russia. There is little appetite on the West to sacrifice potentially dozens or hundreds of F-16s, while also educating Russia how to best counter them. The reason Ukraine are not getting the fighter jets may simply be because the US does not believe they would be able to employ them effectively and/or are not willing to bear the financial burden of it. That is the decision of the people in power, whether we agree with it or not. I think the only way we'll see significant impact is if a NATO country gets directly involved, flying missions with experienced pilots, which is unlikely.



If you want to keep the engagements simple, as a Ukrainian F-16 pilot, I keep my radar off and fly low in the ground clutter well within the safe coverage of Ukrainian SAM and Patriot sites that will be letting me know when they detect something out there.  I'll get some info from the NATO E-3's on where the Russian aircraft are and their headings as well.  All I have to do then is stay in the clutter and fly close enough to passively launch my AIM-120 C's at them and then quickly turn away back into the clutter and safety of my own ground based SAM network.  Rinse and repeat, any Russian bomber groups trying to fly at medium and high altitude to lob glide bombs is going to get it in the face from the F-16's.  Any Russian jet foolish enough to try and go after an F-16 is going to get picked off from a NASAMS or Patriot.


That reads similar to how they are employing the Su-25s right now. I thought the reason the F-16 needs to fly high is to be able to lob missiles at the SAM sites behind the Russian border. The bombers the Russians use also do not fly over Ukrainian air space. It seems like they are able to hammer Ukraine at will with their current methods. I assume that flying low and passive launch would also negatively affect range, so the F-16 would have to get closer, risking a counter attack. But maybe this strategy would work well against targets in Crimea. Either way, degrading the Russian air force along with their ground forces would be a good thing, so hopefully the experts find a way to achieve that.


Devil is in the details.

F-16's don't have to fly high to lob HARMS at short range SAM sites.  You use your Storm Shadows to take out the big SAM coverage areas to allow the F-16's to go after the short and medium range SAMs near the front lines at first, they might get some breathing room if some of the S-400 and S-300 engagement radars are taken out.  If the F-16's come with weapons like SLAM-ER's, then you can go for their longer range SAM radar.

And correct, the Russian bombers don't fly over Ukrainian airspace, they actually drop their crappy glide bombs about 40 km from the front lines and turn around I have observed.  They also have to fly pretty high to achieve that range for the bombs.  If you know they are on the way, and my worst F-16 radar variant has an 83km range under jamming and heavy clutter conditions then I'll bet I can make sure the Russian bombers are flying toward my AIM-120's that their radar warning receivers aren't giving them any warnings about, until perhaps 5 seconds before impact.  You can stay low and in the clutter, even if ranges are shorter, the Russian radar has proven they aren't good at catching the Ukrainian Migs in the ground clutter with their missiles.  However, my AIM-120, is now looking up against the backdrop of the sky, and fat strike aircraft heading toward it.  Hard to dodge a passively fired active radar missile fired at closer range that is coming from in under your aircraft.


This is exactly the Russian bomb lobbing capability that the F-16's can stop.  The Patriot unit in the South recently stopped this practice, now you have a mobile F-16 force that can lob AMRAAM's at anyone trying to do the same in other regions.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 12:49:02 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#11]
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Originally Posted By GunLvrPHD:


Can Tomahawks reach their air base?
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Originally Posted By GunLvrPHD:
Originally Posted By fadedsun:
I don’t think there are any western weapons capable of hitting the bears that far behind the lines.


Can Tomahawks reach their air base?



Yes, well most of them.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 12:52:13 PM EDT
[#12]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
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Wonder if that was BONUS and they cropped the video to conceal it?  Looks like it went up with the crew inside.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 12:58:24 PM EDT
[#13]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
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Oh shit, that loaf hit could be a meme gif.  
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:01:57 PM EDT
[Last Edit: castlebravo84] [#14]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

Wonder if that was BONUS and they cropped the video to conceal it?  Looks like it went up with the crew inside.
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Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

Wonder if that was BONUS and they cropped the video to conceal it?  Looks like it went up with the crew inside.


I think it was an ATGM.  There was another frame in the video showing the projectile after this one, so it was moving a lot slower than any normal 155mm round, and BONUS would have been an EFP going off a lot higher in the air.

Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:02:15 PM EDT
[#15]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


It was a NASAMS unit, not a Patriot.

Canada sent the funds to the U.S. to have the unit built, it is among 4 other units puchased for Ukraine since last year and was in the build queue.

Canada will not be delivering the Unit, Raytheon will be when it is complete.

The 5 NASAMS units purchased last year are all expected to be delivered this year.


There was some horse trading going on, since other countries had their orders in earlier Ukraine was further down the queue for build up of a unit.  Some countries offered to have their NASAMS built up later and the Ukrainian unit put in their place.

This guy gets it, the entire battalion has to be built from scratch and Ukrainian crews trained on it.




From 2022:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/pentagon-award-12-bln-contract-raytheon-ukrainian-nasams-source-document-2022-11-30/



These aren't single units, again they are the entire complete system.

https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-636f8f346fd8b7303fd33e8e71b25605-pjlq


https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/missile-defense-weapons/how-raytheon-rapidly-surged-air-defenses-ukraine





View Quote

You’re right fir some reason I have Oatriot on the brain, might be from listening to Azz on Heels and Baby Face saying it was his favorite football team on Friday Night Tights last night
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:02:21 PM EDT
[#16]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


Devil is in the details.

F-16's don't have to fly high to lob HARMS at short range SAM sites.  You use your Storm Shadows to take out the big SAM coverage areas to allow the F-16's to go after the short and medium range SAMs near the front lines at first, they might get some breathing room if some of the S-400 and S-300 engagement radars are taken out.  If the F-16's come with weapons like SLAM-ER's, then you can go for their longer range SAM radar.

And correct, the Russian bombers don't fly over Ukrainian airspace, they actually drop their crappy glide bombs about 40 km from the front lines and turn around I have observed.  They also have to fly pretty high to achieve that range for the bombs.  If you know they are on the way, and my worst F-16 radar variant has an 83km range under jamming and heavy clutter conditions then I'll bet I can make sure the Russian bombers are flying toward my AIM-120's that their radar warning receivers aren't giving them any warnings about, until perhaps 5 seconds before impact.  You can stay low and in the clutter, even if ranges are shorter, the Russian radar has proven they aren't good at catching the Ukrainian Migs in the ground clutter with their missiles.  However, my AIM-120, is now looking up against the backdrop of the sky, and fat strike aircraft heading toward it.  Hard to dodge a passively fired active radar missile fired at closer range that is coming from in under your aircraft.


This is exactly the Russian bomb lobbing capability that the F-16's can stop.  The Patriot unit in the South recently stopped this practice, now you have a mobile F-16 force that can lob AMRAAM's at anyone trying to do the same in other regions.
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Interesting. Thank you for sharing.

I think Storm Shadows vs targets in Russia proper are still a no-no. Ukraine is ham stringed by not being able to strike back against targets beyond their borders. Shooting down some bombers might convince the Russians to give them fighter cover and be targeted as well.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:05:56 PM EDT
[#17]
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Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire:



I don't remember that guy....was he a US citizen who went traitor and joined Russian military?  Published pro-Russian propaganda? Sabotage?  Espionage?  All of the above?
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Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire:



I don't remember that guy....was he a US citizen who went traitor and joined Russian military?  Published pro-Russian propaganda? Sabotage?  Espionage?  All of the above?


He was living in Ukraine and was a prolific publisher of pro-Russian talking points.
See bottom tweet for a volume estimate.

Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:06:33 PM EDT
[#18]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
NSFW.

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Figure that guy’s life was measured in minutes after that.
Just shows the reality of their situation.  The Russians probably won’t be evacuated; if they are it will be a day, or days.  A quick death might be better.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:08:38 PM EDT
[#19]

Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:09:35 PM EDT
[#20]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

Oh shit, that loaf hit could be a meme gif.  
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Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

Oh shit, that loaf hit could be a meme gif.  


Can anyone here zoom it in, slow it down and turn it into an “IN!” Gif?      Would make a good one.  
The windshield bloom is epic.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:09:57 PM EDT
[Last Edit: castlebravo84] [#21]
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Originally Posted By strykr:

Interesting. Thank you for sharing.

I think Storm Shadows vs targets in Russia proper are still a no-no. Ukraine is ham stringed by not being able to strike back against targets beyond their borders. Shooting down some bombers might convince the Russians to give them fighter cover and be targeted as well.
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Originally Posted By strykr:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


Devil is in the details.

F-16's don't have to fly high to lob HARMS at short range SAM sites.  You use your Storm Shadows to take out the big SAM coverage areas to allow the F-16's to go after the short and medium range SAMs near the front lines at first, they might get some breathing room if some of the S-400 and S-300 engagement radars are taken out.  If the F-16's come with weapons like SLAM-ER's, then you can go for their longer range SAM radar.

And correct, the Russian bombers don't fly over Ukrainian airspace, they actually drop their crappy glide bombs about 40 km from the front lines and turn around I have observed.  They also have to fly pretty high to achieve that range for the bombs.  If you know they are on the way, and my worst F-16 radar variant has an 83km range under jamming and heavy clutter conditions then I'll bet I can make sure the Russian bombers are flying toward my AIM-120's that their radar warning receivers aren't giving them any warnings about, until perhaps 5 seconds before impact.  You can stay low and in the clutter, even if ranges are shorter, the Russian radar has proven they aren't good at catching the Ukrainian Migs in the ground clutter with their missiles.  However, my AIM-120, is now looking up against the backdrop of the sky, and fat strike aircraft heading toward it.  Hard to dodge a passively fired active radar missile fired at closer range that is coming from in under your aircraft.


This is exactly the Russian bomb lobbing capability that the F-16's can stop.  The Patriot unit in the South recently stopped this practice, now you have a mobile F-16 force that can lob AMRAAM's at anyone trying to do the same in other regions.

Interesting. Thank you for sharing.

I think Storm Shadows vs targets in Russia proper are still a no-no. Ukraine is ham stringed by not being able to strike back against targets beyond their borders. Shooting down some bombers might convince the Russians to give them fighter cover and be targeted as well.


Sending the Vipers after the bombers in Russian airspace would be very risky, and Russia likely has a surplus of launch platforms for their limited missile production capacity, so killing a bunch of bombers may not do much to degrade Russia's ability to launch them.  What the Vipers can do is intercept those cruise missiles as they are flying over Ukrainian air space, and do it with AMRAAM missiles that are in far greater supply than Patriots and the like.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:15:49 PM EDT
[#22]
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:

I agree. Gigantic balls on those Brad crews. Maybe the RU tank was damaged prior to the footage we saw, maybe it was a surprise meeting engagement... The first Brad running up on it, to less than 100M and giving it the business from the rear was epic, right out of Kelly's Hero's. It continued to make hits on the tank as it sped away. No way a BMP could do that. Maybe I was wrong about those fiery explosions...maybe the Brad hit the tank's smoke dischargers which blew up? Then the second Brad comes in like the tank owed it money and makes another few dozen hits. The footage will probably be studied since I don't this sort of combat is in doctrine for any IFV.

I wonder why the Brads didnt try using their TOW's? Maybe they didnt have them? Sometimes things happen too fast for the best option but aggressive action can compensate.

*I bet there will be some footage from RU sources of less successful Brad. vs tank action :(...

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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:
Originally Posted By Capta:

Solid gold.  One of the best armor combat videos of the war.

I agree. Gigantic balls on those Brad crews. Maybe the RU tank was damaged prior to the footage we saw, maybe it was a surprise meeting engagement... The first Brad running up on it, to less than 100M and giving it the business from the rear was epic, right out of Kelly's Hero's. It continued to make hits on the tank as it sped away. No way a BMP could do that. Maybe I was wrong about those fiery explosions...maybe the Brad hit the tank's smoke dischargers which blew up? Then the second Brad comes in like the tank owed it money and makes another few dozen hits. The footage will probably be studied since I don't this sort of combat is in doctrine for any IFV.

I wonder why the Brads didnt try using their TOW's? Maybe they didnt have them? Sometimes things happen too fast for the best option but aggressive action can compensate.

*I bet there will be some footage from RU sources of less successful Brad. vs tank action :(...


Some of the bigger booms were probably active protection blocks going off.  You can see at least one missing in the “after” pic.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:20:29 PM EDT
[#23]
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Originally Posted By RockNwood:
Russian motivation…
The problem is they will freeze in the trenches too. Will be interesting to see how well this tactic works.

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Choice A - cold
Choice B - cold with bullets and frag flying
Hmmm:……
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:22:52 PM EDT
[#24]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


It was a NASAMS unit, not a Patriot.

Canada sent the funds to the U.S. to have the unit built, it is among 4 other units puchased for Ukraine since last year and was in the build queue.

Canada will not be delivering the Unit, Raytheon will be when it is complete.

The 5 NASAMS units purchased last year are all expected to be delivered this year.


There was some horse trading going on, since other countries had their orders in earlier Ukraine was further down the queue for build up of a unit.  Some countries offered to have their NASAMS built up later and the Ukrainian unit put in their place.

This guy gets it, the entire battalion has to be built from scratch and Ukrainian crews trained on it.




From 2022:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/pentagon-award-12-bln-contract-raytheon-ukrainian-nasams-source-document-2022-11-30/



These aren't single units, again they are the entire complete system.

https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-636f8f346fd8b7303fd33e8e71b25605-pjlq


https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/missile-defense-weapons/how-raytheon-rapidly-surged-air-defenses-ukraine





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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:
So far no real updates on Patriot Canada promised to donate


It was a NASAMS unit, not a Patriot.

Canada sent the funds to the U.S. to have the unit built, it is among 4 other units puchased for Ukraine since last year and was in the build queue.

Canada will not be delivering the Unit, Raytheon will be when it is complete.

The 5 NASAMS units purchased last year are all expected to be delivered this year.


There was some horse trading going on, since other countries had their orders in earlier Ukraine was further down the queue for build up of a unit.  Some countries offered to have their NASAMS built up later and the Ukrainian unit put in their place.

This guy gets it, the entire battalion has to be built from scratch and Ukrainian crews trained on it.




From 2022:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/pentagon-award-12-bln-contract-raytheon-ukrainian-nasams-source-document-2022-11-30/

The U.S. Army awarded a $1.2 billion contract to Raytheon Technologies Co (RTX.N) for six National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) for Ukraine on Wednesday, the Pentagon said.

The United States has approved sending Ukraine a total of eight NASAMS to help fend off Russian missile and drone attacks.

Ukraine received its first delivery of two NASAMS air defense systems in November. Others will be delivered in future months once they are built.


These aren't single units, again they are the entire complete system.

https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-636f8f346fd8b7303fd33e8e71b25605-pjlq


https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/missile-defense-weapons/how-raytheon-rapidly-surged-air-defenses-ukraine

the Ukrainian government asked the U.S. for urgently needed help. The initial U.S. response was that it usually takes two years to get a system on contract, then two more to build and deliver it—about a 4-5-year process.

Ukraine’s reaction, according to an official involved at Raytheon, a division of RTX, was: “Are you kidding me?”


That exchange spurred Raytheon and partner Kongsberg to break records by begging, borrowing and “stealing” equipment to rapidly surge the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (Nasams) to Ukrainian forces, which were using it to defend population centers by the end of 2022. The system is now a crucial piece of Ukraine’s networked air defenses, with successive deliveries of aid from the U.S., including more ammunition for the launchers.

“The main driver for this program was the motivation and the people,” Laura Bear, Raytheon’s program manager for medium-range air defense, said in a presentation at Aviation Week’s A&D Programs Conference on Nov. 8. “I think we made it very clear throughout the organization that every single person played an incredibly important part in this program. Whether you were logistics packaging a box, whether you were the guy turning a screw on the floor of the factory, your efforts within days or weeks could be implemented and needed in Ukraine.”

The procurement was the first Foreign Military Sales case for the Nasams, and it involved a customer within the U.S. government—the Army’s Program Executive Office Missiles and Space—that was not aware beforehand it would be facilitating a transfer to Ukraine. The office had also never previously worked with Nasams.

To speed up delivery, the U.S. government gave Raytheon Nasams kits from its stocks and asked the company for reimbursement instead of contracting new-build equipment. With that expediency, two kits were sold and shipped off within one day of contract award, Bear said



Wonderful to see the industry and DoD lighting a fire to break through the day to day slog.  Now do the Whitehouse! 😂


Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:26:37 PM EDT
[#25]
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Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:

DPP has a goofy name but it’s not a direct US equivalent that we think of when we read it here in the states. Similar to how confusion over British conservative names in the past
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Yes. Thank you for the details.

I have seen that "conservative" and "progressive/liberal" mean different things in European politics (and now I know a little about Taiwan too) than here in the USA. I just get a shiver when I read "progressive politician wins"...
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:27:52 PM EDT
[#26]
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Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire:



I don't remember that guy....was he a US citizen who went traitor and joined Russian military?  Published pro-Russian propaganda? Sabotage?  Espionage?  All of the above?
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Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire:



I don't remember that guy....was he a US citizen who went traitor and joined Russian military?  Published pro-Russian propaganda? Sabotage?  Espionage?  All of the above?

Chilean-american communist who insinuated himself into the American “conservative” scene mostly via Zerohedge from 2010 on, where he preached economic doom and gloom for America and, in particular, shilled the Russian propaganda line in the 2014 war on Ukraine.
I read him and got suckered by him at the time and I admit it publicly.
FUCK THAT COMMUNIST PIECE OF SHIT.  He got what he deserved, and not enough of it.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:33:00 PM EDT
[#27]
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Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:

You’re right fir some reason I have Oatriot on the brain, might be from listening to Azz on Heels and Baby Face saying it was his favorite football team on Friday Night Tights last night
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Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


It was a NASAMS unit, not a Patriot.

Canada sent the funds to the U.S. to have the unit built, it is among 4 other units puchased for Ukraine since last year and was in the build queue.

Canada will not be delivering the Unit, Raytheon will be when it is complete.

The 5 NASAMS units purchased last year are all expected to be delivered this year.


There was some horse trading going on, since other countries had their orders in earlier Ukraine was further down the queue for build up of a unit.  Some countries offered to have their NASAMS built up later and the Ukrainian unit put in their place.

This guy gets it, the entire battalion has to be built from scratch and Ukrainian crews trained on it.




From 2022:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/pentagon-award-12-bln-contract-raytheon-ukrainian-nasams-source-document-2022-11-30/



These aren't single units, again they are the entire complete system.

https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-636f8f346fd8b7303fd33e8e71b25605-pjlq


https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/missile-defense-weapons/how-raytheon-rapidly-surged-air-defenses-ukraine






You’re right fir some reason I have Oatriot on the brain, might be from listening to Azz on Heels and Baby Face saying it was his favorite football team on Friday Night Tights last night



lol, well you weren't the only one thinking it was a Patriot unit either.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:34:27 PM EDT
[#28]
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Originally Posted By strykr:

Interesting. Thank you for sharing.

I think Storm Shadows vs targets in Russia proper are still a no-no. Ukraine is ham stringed by not being able to strike back against targets beyond their borders. Shooting down some bombers might convince the Russians to give them fighter cover and be targeted as well.
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Originally Posted By strykr:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


Devil is in the details.

F-16's don't have to fly high to lob HARMS at short range SAM sites.  You use your Storm Shadows to take out the big SAM coverage areas to allow the F-16's to go after the short and medium range SAMs near the front lines at first, they might get some breathing room if some of the S-400 and S-300 engagement radars are taken out.  If the F-16's come with weapons like SLAM-ER's, then you can go for their longer range SAM radar.

And correct, the Russian bombers don't fly over Ukrainian airspace, they actually drop their crappy glide bombs about 40 km from the front lines and turn around I have observed.  They also have to fly pretty high to achieve that range for the bombs.  If you know they are on the way, and my worst F-16 radar variant has an 83km range under jamming and heavy clutter conditions then I'll bet I can make sure the Russian bombers are flying toward my AIM-120's that their radar warning receivers aren't giving them any warnings about, until perhaps 5 seconds before impact.  You can stay low and in the clutter, even if ranges are shorter, the Russian radar has proven they aren't good at catching the Ukrainian Migs in the ground clutter with their missiles.  However, my AIM-120, is now looking up against the backdrop of the sky, and fat strike aircraft heading toward it.  Hard to dodge a passively fired active radar missile fired at closer range that is coming from in under your aircraft.


This is exactly the Russian bomb lobbing capability that the F-16's can stop.  The Patriot unit in the South recently stopped this practice, now you have a mobile F-16 force that can lob AMRAAM's at anyone trying to do the same in other regions.

Interesting. Thank you for sharing.

I think Storm Shadows vs targets in Russia proper are still a no-no. Ukraine is ham stringed by not being able to strike back against targets beyond their borders. Shooting down some bombers might convince the Russians to give them fighter cover and be targeted as well.



Agreed, but the tactic would be useful in the Eastern and Southern areas that are still former Ukrainian territories.  I will be watching closely to see how the F-16's along with some other systems pan out.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:38:53 PM EDT
[#29]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


Devil is in the details.

F-16's don't have to fly high to lob HARMS at short range SAM sites.  You use your Storm Shadows to take out the big SAM coverage areas to allow the F-16's to go after the short and medium range SAMs near the front lines at first, they might get some breathing room if some of the S-400 and S-300 engagement radars are taken out.  If the F-16's come with weapons like SLAM-ER's, then you can go for their longer range SAM radar.

And correct, the Russian bombers don't fly over Ukrainian airspace, they actually drop their crappy glide bombs about 40 km from the front lines and turn around I have observed.  They also have to fly pretty high to achieve that range for the bombs.  If you know they are on the way, and my worst F-16 radar variant has an 83km range under jamming and heavy clutter conditions then I'll bet I can make sure the Russian bombers are flying toward my AIM-120's that their radar warning receivers aren't giving them any warnings about, until perhaps 5 seconds before impact.  You can stay low and in the clutter, even if ranges are shorter, the Russian radar has proven they aren't good at catching the Ukrainian Migs in the ground clutter with their missiles.  However, my AIM-120, is now looking up against the backdrop of the sky, and fat strike aircraft heading toward it.  Hard to dodge a passively fired active radar missile fired at closer range that is coming from in under your aircraft.


This is exactly the Russian bomb lobbing capability that the F-16's can stop.  The Patriot unit in the South recently stopped this practice, now you have a mobile F-16 force that can lob AMRAAM's at anyone trying to do the same in other regions.
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By strykr:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By strykr:
Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
Folks, don't buy into the hype of the mighty Russian Flankers. Go read about the engagement between Pakistani F-16A Block 15 MLU vs. Indian Su-30 MKI from a few years ago. These Pakistani F-16s are very similar to the version being gifted to Ukraine by various European nations and are among the oldest of F-16s still in service. They totally had the Indian Flankers on the defensive during the entire engagement, getting the first shots and controlling the engagement. And the Indian Flankers are among the best and most sophisticated in the world. Next to the Su-35, the Su-30MKI is probably the best Flanker variant in service. After this engagement, the Indians went to the Israelis and had them equip their Flankers for the Israeli Derby active radar missiles because the Russian R-77 Amraamski sucked so terribly. And the Indians started buying more French Rafale fighters because they came to the realization that western fighters are greatly superior to the Russian shit. And don't even get me started on the much hyped Russian R-37 missile. It may have range but it is designed for going after big, lumbering targets like AWACS and tankers. It isn't a dogfight missile and will fare poorly when employed against fighter aircraft that have good situational awareness.

Is this the incident you mentioned? 2 Sukhois vs 8 F-16s? It reads like a small skirmish rather than an all out dogfight. I do not think many would argue that the R-77 is better than the AIM-120. Yet the 3 AIM-120 missiles launched also missed the mark. R-77-1 does have higher range than the R-77 model that India used.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/indian-sukhois-counterattacked-pak-f16-jets-during-2019-combat/
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/india-upgrading-su-30mki-after-pakistani-f-16-outperformed-russian-build-fighter-jets/

While the R-37M would have a lower chance of scoring the hit, it will still force the F-16 to take evasive action or risk getting shot down. Other than the report I've posted about them downing the Su-27 with it, there is also mention of Su-57 using R-37M in Ukraine with a successful kill. But it is hard to tell how reliable these reports are. When the Ukrainian pilot must start the fight dodging 2 R-37M missiles before even getting the first launch, the odds are not in his favor. And the Sukhoi can simply turn around and fly back to Russia, where the Ukrainian fighter cannot follow due to political reasons.

Russia has over 200 Sukhois just from the modern variants, not counting the older Su-27s and such. I think we have a tendency to overestimate the impact of Western fighter jets. It is not just a question of technical superiority, but whether they can be employed in numbers to make an actual difference. The F-16 is a good low cost fighter jet, but there is a reason it is being replaced. Rafale/Eurofighter are modern jets with more modern systems. Plus unlike the F-16, they have the capability to employ the Meteor missile, which seems better than the R-37M.

Sure, well trained pilots will do well against third world countries. But going up against Russian jets with experienced pilots and SAMs on the ground is a different thing altogether. Ukraine has received modern Leopards, yet was not able to employ them nearly as effectively as NATO forces. USAF pilots also fly way more hours than their counterparts. That will not be the case for the green Ukrainian pilots coming out of fighter school. I do not know how "good" the current Ukrainian Mig-29 pilots are. It does not seem to me that they are making a big difference taking out lots of SAM sites, but I could be wrong.

I do hope that the training of Ukrainian pilots is ahead of the reports. Maybe they have lots of trained pilots, just trying to keep it secret until the jets arrive. But from what I see, there is no political will to escalate the fight with Russia. There is little appetite on the West to sacrifice potentially dozens or hundreds of F-16s, while also educating Russia how to best counter them. The reason Ukraine are not getting the fighter jets may simply be because the US does not believe they would be able to employ them effectively and/or are not willing to bear the financial burden of it. That is the decision of the people in power, whether we agree with it or not. I think the only way we'll see significant impact is if a NATO country gets directly involved, flying missions with experienced pilots, which is unlikely.



If you want to keep the engagements simple, as a Ukrainian F-16 pilot, I keep my radar off and fly low in the ground clutter well within the safe coverage of Ukrainian SAM and Patriot sites that will be letting me know when they detect something out there.  I'll get some info from the NATO E-3's on where the Russian aircraft are and their headings as well.  All I have to do then is stay in the clutter and fly close enough to passively launch my AIM-120 C's at them and then quickly turn away back into the clutter and safety of my own ground based SAM network.  Rinse and repeat, any Russian bomber groups trying to fly at medium and high altitude to lob glide bombs is going to get it in the face from the F-16's.  Any Russian jet foolish enough to try and go after an F-16 is going to get picked off from a NASAMS or Patriot.


That reads similar to how they are employing the Su-25s right now. I thought the reason the F-16 needs to fly high is to be able to lob missiles at the SAM sites behind the Russian border. The bombers the Russians use also do not fly over Ukrainian air space. It seems like they are able to hammer Ukraine at will with their current methods. I assume that flying low and passive launch would also negatively affect range, so the F-16 would have to get closer, risking a counter attack. But maybe this strategy would work well against targets in Crimea. Either way, degrading the Russian air force along with their ground forces would be a good thing, so hopefully the experts find a way to achieve that.


Devil is in the details.

F-16's don't have to fly high to lob HARMS at short range SAM sites.  You use your Storm Shadows to take out the big SAM coverage areas to allow the F-16's to go after the short and medium range SAMs near the front lines at first, they might get some breathing room if some of the S-400 and S-300 engagement radars are taken out.  If the F-16's come with weapons like SLAM-ER's, then you can go for their longer range SAM radar.

And correct, the Russian bombers don't fly over Ukrainian airspace, they actually drop their crappy glide bombs about 40 km from the front lines and turn around I have observed.  They also have to fly pretty high to achieve that range for the bombs.  If you know they are on the way, and my worst F-16 radar variant has an 83km range under jamming and heavy clutter conditions then I'll bet I can make sure the Russian bombers are flying toward my AIM-120's that their radar warning receivers aren't giving them any warnings about, until perhaps 5 seconds before impact.  You can stay low and in the clutter, even if ranges are shorter, the Russian radar has proven they aren't good at catching the Ukrainian Migs in the ground clutter with their missiles.  However, my AIM-120, is now looking up against the backdrop of the sky, and fat strike aircraft heading toward it.  Hard to dodge a passively fired active radar missile fired at closer range that is coming from in under your aircraft.


This is exactly the Russian bomb lobbing capability that the F-16's can stop.  The Patriot unit in the South recently stopped this practice, now you have a mobile F-16 force that can lob AMRAAM's at anyone trying to do the same in other regions.

Great info!  I hope we see some ambushes before their arrival is officially announced.

That still leaves the missiles launched from the Caspian Sea area but I believe Patriot, IRIS-T and the arriving NASAMS are pretty effective on those.

Plus, The F-16 should be a real threat to the (remaining 😂) Ka-52, and lots of Mi-35 and Mi-28 helos that have been lobbing missiles beyond manpad range. If the F16s can push the Russian safety line for low flying aircraft back to 50km it would eliminate much of the glide bombs and lobbed missiles at the front lines. And if at the same time they can eliminate much less of the front line EW and short range AD it would really open the field to UA drones. If US could get twice as many drones through that would be a huge impact.


Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:39:11 PM EDT
[#30]
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:

Yes. Thank you for the details.

I have seen that "conservative" and "progressive/liberal" mean different things in European politics (and now I know a little about Taiwan too) than here in the USA. I just get a shiver when I read "progressive politician wins"...
View Quote


It’s not what ARFCOM would define as an ideal party - China aside - it’s a mixed bag but here’s some excerpts from their official website on policy positions https://www.dpp.org.tw/en/upload/download/Party_Platform.pdf

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Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:39:25 PM EDT
[#31]
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Originally Posted By castlebravo84:


Sending the Vipers after the bombers in Russian airspace would be very risky, and Russia likely has a surplus of launch platforms for their limited missile production capacity, so killing a bunch of bombers may not do much to degrade Russia's ability to launch them.  What the Vipers can do is intercept those cruise missiles as they are flying over Ukrainian air space, and do it with AMRAAM missiles that are in far greater supply than Patriots and the like.
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Originally Posted By castlebravo84:
Originally Posted By strykr:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


Devil is in the details.

F-16's don't have to fly high to lob HARMS at short range SAM sites.  You use your Storm Shadows to take out the big SAM coverage areas to allow the F-16's to go after the short and medium range SAMs near the front lines at first, they might get some breathing room if some of the S-400 and S-300 engagement radars are taken out.  If the F-16's come with weapons like SLAM-ER's, then you can go for their longer range SAM radar.

And correct, the Russian bombers don't fly over Ukrainian airspace, they actually drop their crappy glide bombs about 40 km from the front lines and turn around I have observed.  They also have to fly pretty high to achieve that range for the bombs.  If you know they are on the way, and my worst F-16 radar variant has an 83km range under jamming and heavy clutter conditions then I'll bet I can make sure the Russian bombers are flying toward my AIM-120's that their radar warning receivers aren't giving them any warnings about, until perhaps 5 seconds before impact.  You can stay low and in the clutter, even if ranges are shorter, the Russian radar has proven they aren't good at catching the Ukrainian Migs in the ground clutter with their missiles.  However, my AIM-120, is now looking up against the backdrop of the sky, and fat strike aircraft heading toward it.  Hard to dodge a passively fired active radar missile fired at closer range that is coming from in under your aircraft.


This is exactly the Russian bomb lobbing capability that the F-16's can stop.  The Patriot unit in the South recently stopped this practice, now you have a mobile F-16 force that can lob AMRAAM's at anyone trying to do the same in other regions.

Interesting. Thank you for sharing.

I think Storm Shadows vs targets in Russia proper are still a no-no. Ukraine is ham stringed by not being able to strike back against targets beyond their borders. Shooting down some bombers might convince the Russians to give them fighter cover and be targeted as well.


Sending the Vipers after the bombers in Russian airspace would be very risky, and Russia likely has a surplus of launch platforms for their limited missile production capacity, so killing a bunch of bombers may not do much to degrade Russia's ability to launch them.  What the Vipers can do is intercept those cruise missiles as they are flying over Ukrainian air space, and do it with AMRAAM missiles that are in far greater supply than Patriots and the like.



This is another good point where F-16's will help the situation.  I never said the Vipers would fly after the bombers in their airspace, just close to the front within their own SAM coverage to be able to make fast dashes and lob a few AMRAAM to make the Russian's lose the ability to do bombing runs at the front with the glide bombs.  Everything else would be defensive in nature, including finding SAM sites and marking them for HIMARS to hit if needed.  Or lob a HARM toward it to force Russian sites to shut down and be afraid to turn on their radars.  I can think of a few scenarios where I would use an ADM-160 MALD, and fly it at medium altitude ahead of me, over Russian territory and just lob a HARM at anthing that lit up to hit the MALD.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:40:07 PM EDT
[#32]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



lol, well you weren't the only one thinking it was a Patriot unit either.
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Good grief my spelling was worse than usual when I read your reply to my post.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:40:24 PM EDT
[#33]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

Some of the bigger booms were probably active protection blocks going off.  You can see at least one missing in the “after” pic.
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Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:
Originally Posted By Capta:

Solid gold.  One of the best armor combat videos of the war.

I agree. Gigantic balls on those Brad crews. Maybe the RU tank was damaged prior to the footage we saw, maybe it was a surprise meeting engagement... The first Brad running up on it, to less than 100M and giving it the business from the rear was epic, right out of Kelly's Hero's. It continued to make hits on the tank as it sped away. No way a BMP could do that. Maybe I was wrong about those fiery explosions...maybe the Brad hit the tank's smoke dischargers which blew up? Then the second Brad comes in like the tank owed it money and makes another few dozen hits. The footage will probably be studied since I don't this sort of combat is in doctrine for any IFV.

I wonder why the Brads didnt try using their TOW's? Maybe they didnt have them? Sometimes things happen too fast for the best option but aggressive action can compensate.

*I bet there will be some footage from RU sources of less successful Brad. vs tank action :(...


Some of the bigger booms were probably active protection blocks going off.  You can see at least one missing in the “after” pic.



I noticed that, and one of the interesting things about Kontakt ERA, is that it's not supposed to go off when hit with autocannon fire.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:41:26 PM EDT
[#34]
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Originally Posted By RockNwood:

Wonderful to see the industry and DoD lighting a fire to break through the day to day slog.  Now do the Whitehouse! 😂


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Originally Posted By RockNwood:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:
So far no real updates on Patriot Canada promised to donate


It was a NASAMS unit, not a Patriot.

Canada sent the funds to the U.S. to have the unit built, it is among 4 other units puchased for Ukraine since last year and was in the build queue.

Canada will not be delivering the Unit, Raytheon will be when it is complete.

The 5 NASAMS units purchased last year are all expected to be delivered this year.


There was some horse trading going on, since other countries had their orders in earlier Ukraine was further down the queue for build up of a unit.  Some countries offered to have their NASAMS built up later and the Ukrainian unit put in their place.

This guy gets it, the entire battalion has to be built from scratch and Ukrainian crews trained on it.




From 2022:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/pentagon-award-12-bln-contract-raytheon-ukrainian-nasams-source-document-2022-11-30/

The U.S. Army awarded a $1.2 billion contract to Raytheon Technologies Co (RTX.N) for six National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) for Ukraine on Wednesday, the Pentagon said.

The United States has approved sending Ukraine a total of eight NASAMS to help fend off Russian missile and drone attacks.

Ukraine received its first delivery of two NASAMS air defense systems in November. Others will be delivered in future months once they are built.


These aren't single units, again they are the entire complete system.

https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-636f8f346fd8b7303fd33e8e71b25605-pjlq


https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/missile-defense-weapons/how-raytheon-rapidly-surged-air-defenses-ukraine

the Ukrainian government asked the U.S. for urgently needed help. The initial U.S. response was that it usually takes two years to get a system on contract, then two more to build and deliver it—about a 4-5-year process.

Ukraine’s reaction, according to an official involved at Raytheon, a division of RTX, was: “Are you kidding me?”


That exchange spurred Raytheon and partner Kongsberg to break records by begging, borrowing and “stealing” equipment to rapidly surge the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (Nasams) to Ukrainian forces, which were using it to defend population centers by the end of 2022. The system is now a crucial piece of Ukraine’s networked air defenses, with successive deliveries of aid from the U.S., including more ammunition for the launchers.

“The main driver for this program was the motivation and the people,” Laura Bear, Raytheon’s program manager for medium-range air defense, said in a presentation at Aviation Week’s A&D Programs Conference on Nov. 8. “I think we made it very clear throughout the organization that every single person played an incredibly important part in this program. Whether you were logistics packaging a box, whether you were the guy turning a screw on the floor of the factory, your efforts within days or weeks could be implemented and needed in Ukraine.”

The procurement was the first Foreign Military Sales case for the Nasams, and it involved a customer within the U.S. government—the Army’s Program Executive Office Missiles and Space—that was not aware beforehand it would be facilitating a transfer to Ukraine. The office had also never previously worked with Nasams.

To speed up delivery, the U.S. government gave Raytheon Nasams kits from its stocks and asked the company for reimbursement instead of contracting new-build equipment. With that expediency, two kits were sold and shipped off within one day of contract award, Bear said



Wonderful to see the industry and DoD lighting a fire to break through the day to day slog.  Now do the Whitehouse! 😂




lol, now that's a shit show.   I hate politics.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:42:49 PM EDT
[Last Edit: RockNwood] [#35]
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Originally Posted By Prime:


He was living in Ukraine and was a prolific publisher of pro-Russian talking points.
See bottom tweet for a volume estimate.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/203719/Lira_PNG-3092554.png
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Originally Posted By Prime:
Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire:



I don't remember that guy....was he a US citizen who went traitor and joined Russian military?  Published pro-Russian propaganda? Sabotage?  Espionage?  All of the above?


He was living in Ukraine and was a prolific publisher of pro-Russian talking points.
See bottom tweet for a volume estimate.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/203719/Lira_PNG-3092554.png

I believe his main crime was posting info about locations that was used by Russia for targeting. He was warned repeated personally as were mil bloggers in general they would be prosecuted if they continued. He did, and he was. Then paroled and did it some more. Thus the prison.


Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:43:09 PM EDT
[#36]
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Originally Posted By RockNwood:

Great info!  I hope we see some ambushes before their arrival is officially announced.

That still leaves the missiles launched from the Caspian Sea area but I believe Patriot, IRIS-T and the arriving NASAMS are pretty effective on those.

Plus, The F-16 should be a real threat to the (remaining 😂) Ka-52, and lots of Mi-35 and Mi-28 helos that have been lobbing missiles beyond manpad range. If the F16s can push the Russian safety line for low flying aircraft back to 50km it would eliminate much of the glide bombs and lobbed missiles at the front lines. And if at the same time they can eliminate much less of the front line EW and short range AD it would really open the field to UA drones. If US could get twice as many drones through that would be a huge impact.


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Originally Posted By RockNwood:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By strykr:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By strykr:
Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
Folks, don't buy into the hype of the mighty Russian Flankers. Go read about the engagement between Pakistani F-16A Block 15 MLU vs. Indian Su-30 MKI from a few years ago. These Pakistani F-16s are very similar to the version being gifted to Ukraine by various European nations and are among the oldest of F-16s still in service. They totally had the Indian Flankers on the defensive during the entire engagement, getting the first shots and controlling the engagement. And the Indian Flankers are among the best and most sophisticated in the world. Next to the Su-35, the Su-30MKI is probably the best Flanker variant in service. After this engagement, the Indians went to the Israelis and had them equip their Flankers for the Israeli Derby active radar missiles because the Russian R-77 Amraamski sucked so terribly. And the Indians started buying more French Rafale fighters because they came to the realization that western fighters are greatly superior to the Russian shit. And don't even get me started on the much hyped Russian R-37 missile. It may have range but it is designed for going after big, lumbering targets like AWACS and tankers. It isn't a dogfight missile and will fare poorly when employed against fighter aircraft that have good situational awareness.

Is this the incident you mentioned? 2 Sukhois vs 8 F-16s? It reads like a small skirmish rather than an all out dogfight. I do not think many would argue that the R-77 is better than the AIM-120. Yet the 3 AIM-120 missiles launched also missed the mark. R-77-1 does have higher range than the R-77 model that India used.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/indian-sukhois-counterattacked-pak-f16-jets-during-2019-combat/
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/india-upgrading-su-30mki-after-pakistani-f-16-outperformed-russian-build-fighter-jets/

While the R-37M would have a lower chance of scoring the hit, it will still force the F-16 to take evasive action or risk getting shot down. Other than the report I've posted about them downing the Su-27 with it, there is also mention of Su-57 using R-37M in Ukraine with a successful kill. But it is hard to tell how reliable these reports are. When the Ukrainian pilot must start the fight dodging 2 R-37M missiles before even getting the first launch, the odds are not in his favor. And the Sukhoi can simply turn around and fly back to Russia, where the Ukrainian fighter cannot follow due to political reasons.

Russia has over 200 Sukhois just from the modern variants, not counting the older Su-27s and such. I think we have a tendency to overestimate the impact of Western fighter jets. It is not just a question of technical superiority, but whether they can be employed in numbers to make an actual difference. The F-16 is a good low cost fighter jet, but there is a reason it is being replaced. Rafale/Eurofighter are modern jets with more modern systems. Plus unlike the F-16, they have the capability to employ the Meteor missile, which seems better than the R-37M.

Sure, well trained pilots will do well against third world countries. But going up against Russian jets with experienced pilots and SAMs on the ground is a different thing altogether. Ukraine has received modern Leopards, yet was not able to employ them nearly as effectively as NATO forces. USAF pilots also fly way more hours than their counterparts. That will not be the case for the green Ukrainian pilots coming out of fighter school. I do not know how "good" the current Ukrainian Mig-29 pilots are. It does not seem to me that they are making a big difference taking out lots of SAM sites, but I could be wrong.

I do hope that the training of Ukrainian pilots is ahead of the reports. Maybe they have lots of trained pilots, just trying to keep it secret until the jets arrive. But from what I see, there is no political will to escalate the fight with Russia. There is little appetite on the West to sacrifice potentially dozens or hundreds of F-16s, while also educating Russia how to best counter them. The reason Ukraine are not getting the fighter jets may simply be because the US does not believe they would be able to employ them effectively and/or are not willing to bear the financial burden of it. That is the decision of the people in power, whether we agree with it or not. I think the only way we'll see significant impact is if a NATO country gets directly involved, flying missions with experienced pilots, which is unlikely.



If you want to keep the engagements simple, as a Ukrainian F-16 pilot, I keep my radar off and fly low in the ground clutter well within the safe coverage of Ukrainian SAM and Patriot sites that will be letting me know when they detect something out there.  I'll get some info from the NATO E-3's on where the Russian aircraft are and their headings as well.  All I have to do then is stay in the clutter and fly close enough to passively launch my AIM-120 C's at them and then quickly turn away back into the clutter and safety of my own ground based SAM network.  Rinse and repeat, any Russian bomber groups trying to fly at medium and high altitude to lob glide bombs is going to get it in the face from the F-16's.  Any Russian jet foolish enough to try and go after an F-16 is going to get picked off from a NASAMS or Patriot.


That reads similar to how they are employing the Su-25s right now. I thought the reason the F-16 needs to fly high is to be able to lob missiles at the SAM sites behind the Russian border. The bombers the Russians use also do not fly over Ukrainian air space. It seems like they are able to hammer Ukraine at will with their current methods. I assume that flying low and passive launch would also negatively affect range, so the F-16 would have to get closer, risking a counter attack. But maybe this strategy would work well against targets in Crimea. Either way, degrading the Russian air force along with their ground forces would be a good thing, so hopefully the experts find a way to achieve that.


Devil is in the details.

F-16's don't have to fly high to lob HARMS at short range SAM sites.  You use your Storm Shadows to take out the big SAM coverage areas to allow the F-16's to go after the short and medium range SAMs near the front lines at first, they might get some breathing room if some of the S-400 and S-300 engagement radars are taken out.  If the F-16's come with weapons like SLAM-ER's, then you can go for their longer range SAM radar.

And correct, the Russian bombers don't fly over Ukrainian airspace, they actually drop their crappy glide bombs about 40 km from the front lines and turn around I have observed.  They also have to fly pretty high to achieve that range for the bombs.  If you know they are on the way, and my worst F-16 radar variant has an 83km range under jamming and heavy clutter conditions then I'll bet I can make sure the Russian bombers are flying toward my AIM-120's that their radar warning receivers aren't giving them any warnings about, until perhaps 5 seconds before impact.  You can stay low and in the clutter, even if ranges are shorter, the Russian radar has proven they aren't good at catching the Ukrainian Migs in the ground clutter with their missiles.  However, my AIM-120, is now looking up against the backdrop of the sky, and fat strike aircraft heading toward it.  Hard to dodge a passively fired active radar missile fired at closer range that is coming from in under your aircraft.


This is exactly the Russian bomb lobbing capability that the F-16's can stop.  The Patriot unit in the South recently stopped this practice, now you have a mobile F-16 force that can lob AMRAAM's at anyone trying to do the same in other regions.

Great info!  I hope we see some ambushes before their arrival is officially announced.

That still leaves the missiles launched from the Caspian Sea area but I believe Patriot, IRIS-T and the arriving NASAMS are pretty effective on those.

Plus, The F-16 should be a real threat to the (remaining 😂) Ka-52, and lots of Mi-35 and Mi-28 helos that have been lobbing missiles beyond manpad range. If the F16s can push the Russian safety line for low flying aircraft back to 50km it would eliminate much of the glide bombs and lobbed missiles at the front lines. And if at the same time they can eliminate much less of the front line EW and short range AD it would really open the field to UA drones. If US could get twice as many drones through that would be a huge impact.





If done right, the F-16's would be murder against Russian helicopters near the front.  Another good use.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:44:10 PM EDT
[#37]
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Originally Posted By BillofRights:


Can anyone here zoom it in, slow it down and turn it into an “IN!” Gif?      Would make a good one.  
The windshield bloom is epic.
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Originally Posted By BillofRights:
Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

Oh shit, that loaf hit could be a meme gif.  


Can anyone here zoom it in, slow it down and turn it into an “IN!” Gif?      Would make a good one.  
The windshield bloom is epic.

Second that!  Boomloaf meme needed.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:44:48 PM EDT
[#38]
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Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:

Good grief my spelling was worse than usual when I read your reply to my post.
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Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



lol, well you weren't the only one thinking it was a Patriot unit either.

Good grief my spelling was worse than usual when I read your reply to my post.


Happens to me as well, when I get quoted I can usually tell how much or how little coffee I've had.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:44:56 PM EDT
[#39]
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Originally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GDu9OvTXUAAMORg?format=jpg&name=900x900
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Huh…

Is that parody? Insulting sarcasm by them? Or a change in attitude?  Fico was very very anti Ukraine and pro Russia.


Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:46:00 PM EDT
[#40]
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Originally Posted By RockNwood:

These must be Russians from a civilized area: they didn’t steal his jacket and boots before leaving him behind.


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The jacket appears to be missing a sleeve.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 1:49:47 PM EDT
[#41]
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Originally Posted By RockNwood:

Huh…

Is that parody? Insulting sarcasm by them? Or a change in attitude?  Fico was very very anti Ukraine and pro Russia.


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Originally Posted By RockNwood:
Originally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GDu9OvTXUAAMORg?format=jpg&name=900x900

Huh…

Is that parody? Insulting sarcasm by them? Or a change in attitude?  Fico was very very anti Ukraine and pro Russia.



Maybe Fico heard from Erdogan that there was jelly to be had.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 2:02:15 PM EDT
[#42]
The Swedish company Nammo, which produces 155 mm ammunition, will increase the production of artillery ammunition for Ukraine.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 2:04:08 PM EDT
[#43]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



If done right, the F-16's would be murder against Russian helicopters near the front.  Another good use.
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By RockNwood:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By strykr:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By strykr:
Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
Folks, don't buy into the hype of the mighty Russian Flankers. Go read about the engagement between Pakistani F-16A Block 15 MLU vs. Indian Su-30 MKI from a few years ago. These Pakistani F-16s are very similar to the version being gifted to Ukraine by various European nations and are among the oldest of F-16s still in service. They totally had the Indian Flankers on the defensive during the entire engagement, getting the first shots and controlling the engagement. And the Indian Flankers are among the best and most sophisticated in the world. Next to the Su-35, the Su-30MKI is probably the best Flanker variant in service. After this engagement, the Indians went to the Israelis and had them equip their Flankers for the Israeli Derby active radar missiles because the Russian R-77 Amraamski sucked so terribly. And the Indians started buying more French Rafale fighters because they came to the realization that western fighters are greatly superior to the Russian shit. And don't even get me started on the much hyped Russian R-37 missile. It may have range but it is designed for going after big, lumbering targets like AWACS and tankers. It isn't a dogfight missile and will fare poorly when employed against fighter aircraft that have good situational awareness.

Is this the incident you mentioned? 2 Sukhois vs 8 F-16s? It reads like a small skirmish rather than an all out dogfight. I do not think many would argue that the R-77 is better than the AIM-120. Yet the 3 AIM-120 missiles launched also missed the mark. R-77-1 does have higher range than the R-77 model that India used.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/indian-sukhois-counterattacked-pak-f16-jets-during-2019-combat/
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/india-upgrading-su-30mki-after-pakistani-f-16-outperformed-russian-build-fighter-jets/

While the R-37M would have a lower chance of scoring the hit, it will still force the F-16 to take evasive action or risk getting shot down. Other than the report I've posted about them downing the Su-27 with it, there is also mention of Su-57 using R-37M in Ukraine with a successful kill. But it is hard to tell how reliable these reports are. When the Ukrainian pilot must start the fight dodging 2 R-37M missiles before even getting the first launch, the odds are not in his favor. And the Sukhoi can simply turn around and fly back to Russia, where the Ukrainian fighter cannot follow due to political reasons.

Russia has over 200 Sukhois just from the modern variants, not counting the older Su-27s and such. I think we have a tendency to overestimate the impact of Western fighter jets. It is not just a question of technical superiority, but whether they can be employed in numbers to make an actual difference. The F-16 is a good low cost fighter jet, but there is a reason it is being replaced. Rafale/Eurofighter are modern jets with more modern systems. Plus unlike the F-16, they have the capability to employ the Meteor missile, which seems better than the R-37M.

Sure, well trained pilots will do well against third world countries. But going up against Russian jets with experienced pilots and SAMs on the ground is a different thing altogether. Ukraine has received modern Leopards, yet was not able to employ them nearly as effectively as NATO forces. USAF pilots also fly way more hours than their counterparts. That will not be the case for the green Ukrainian pilots coming out of fighter school. I do not know how "good" the current Ukrainian Mig-29 pilots are. It does not seem to me that they are making a big difference taking out lots of SAM sites, but I could be wrong.

I do hope that the training of Ukrainian pilots is ahead of the reports. Maybe they have lots of trained pilots, just trying to keep it secret until the jets arrive. But from what I see, there is no political will to escalate the fight with Russia. There is little appetite on the West to sacrifice potentially dozens or hundreds of F-16s, while also educating Russia how to best counter them. The reason Ukraine are not getting the fighter jets may simply be because the US does not believe they would be able to employ them effectively and/or are not willing to bear the financial burden of it. That is the decision of the people in power, whether we agree with it or not. I think the only way we'll see significant impact is if a NATO country gets directly involved, flying missions with experienced pilots, which is unlikely.



If you want to keep the engagements simple, as a Ukrainian F-16 pilot, I keep my radar off and fly low in the ground clutter well within the safe coverage of Ukrainian SAM and Patriot sites that will be letting me know when they detect something out there.  I'll get some info from the NATO E-3's on where the Russian aircraft are and their headings as well.  All I have to do then is stay in the clutter and fly close enough to passively launch my AIM-120 C's at them and then quickly turn away back into the clutter and safety of my own ground based SAM network.  Rinse and repeat, any Russian bomber groups trying to fly at medium and high altitude to lob glide bombs is going to get it in the face from the F-16's.  Any Russian jet foolish enough to try and go after an F-16 is going to get picked off from a NASAMS or Patriot.


That reads similar to how they are employing the Su-25s right now. I thought the reason the F-16 needs to fly high is to be able to lob missiles at the SAM sites behind the Russian border. The bombers the Russians use also do not fly over Ukrainian air space. It seems like they are able to hammer Ukraine at will with their current methods. I assume that flying low and passive launch would also negatively affect range, so the F-16 would have to get closer, risking a counter attack. But maybe this strategy would work well against targets in Crimea. Either way, degrading the Russian air force along with their ground forces would be a good thing, so hopefully the experts find a way to achieve that.


Devil is in the details.

F-16's don't have to fly high to lob HARMS at short range SAM sites.  You use your Storm Shadows to take out the big SAM coverage areas to allow the F-16's to go after the short and medium range SAMs near the front lines at first, they might get some breathing room if some of the S-400 and S-300 engagement radars are taken out.  If the F-16's come with weapons like SLAM-ER's, then you can go for their longer range SAM radar.

And correct, the Russian bombers don't fly over Ukrainian airspace, they actually drop their crappy glide bombs about 40 km from the front lines and turn around I have observed.  They also have to fly pretty high to achieve that range for the bombs.  If you know they are on the way, and my worst F-16 radar variant has an 83km range under jamming and heavy clutter conditions then I'll bet I can make sure the Russian bombers are flying toward my AIM-120's that their radar warning receivers aren't giving them any warnings about, until perhaps 5 seconds before impact.  You can stay low and in the clutter, even if ranges are shorter, the Russian radar has proven they aren't good at catching the Ukrainian Migs in the ground clutter with their missiles.  However, my AIM-120, is now looking up against the backdrop of the sky, and fat strike aircraft heading toward it.  Hard to dodge a passively fired active radar missile fired at closer range that is coming from in under your aircraft.


This is exactly the Russian bomb lobbing capability that the F-16's can stop.  The Patriot unit in the South recently stopped this practice, now you have a mobile F-16 force that can lob AMRAAM's at anyone trying to do the same in other regions.

Great info!  I hope we see some ambushes before their arrival is officially announced.

That still leaves the missiles launched from the Caspian Sea area but I believe Patriot, IRIS-T and the arriving NASAMS are pretty effective on those.

Plus, The F-16 should be a real threat to the (remaining 😂) Ka-52, and lots of Mi-35 and Mi-28 helos that have been lobbing missiles beyond manpad range. If the F16s can push the Russian safety line for low flying aircraft back to 50km it would eliminate much of the glide bombs and lobbed missiles at the front lines. And if at the same time they can eliminate much less of the front line EW and short range AD it would really open the field to UA drones. If US could get twice as many drones through that would be a huge impact.





If done right, the F-16's would be murder against Russian helicopters near the front.  Another good use.


That and the Shaheed and standard cruise missile threat could be largely eliminated.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 2:09:11 PM EDT
[#44]
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Originally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GDu9OvTXUAAMORg?format=jpg&name=900x900
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Look at the backdrop behind these guys. They live in opulence, and will do their best to continue to do so. They don't give a rat's ass about Ukraine, or you and I. They care about great room service, the best hookers (or groomed children) and effortless travel arrangements. Their pictures on the wall of these events remind them of how much fun they had, not about the lives lost, families destroyed, and the subjugation of millions. May fuck be upon them all.
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 2:16:01 PM EDT
[#45]
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Originally Posted By RockNwood:
Huh…

Is that parody? Insulting sarcasm by them? Or a change in attitude?  Fico was very very anti Ukraine and pro Russia.

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Originally Posted By RockNwood:
Huh…

Is that parody? Insulting sarcasm by them? Or a change in attitude?  Fico was very very anti Ukraine and pro Russia.



That would be a course change. I think that's overly optimistic unless Fico learned something new today.

Slovakia tangent



Viktor Orbán will welcome Robert Fico in Budapest
11.1.2024 17:45

The onslaught of illegal migrants on the Slovak border stopped just after Fico's election victory, writes hang.hu.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will receive Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in Budapest on Tuesday, January 16, several Hungarian media announced on Thursday. This was confirmed by Orbán's spokesman Bertalan Havasi for hvg.hu, the TASR correspondent in Budapest reports.

"Preparations for the official visit of the Slovak prime minister are already underway," said Havasi.

In an interview for TASR on December 29, 2023 about the Vyšehrad Four (V4), which also includes Hungary, the Slovak Prime Minister said that during his government, Slovakia will have the ambition to revive the strength and ability to act of the V4.

"I guarantee you that the dynamics of V4 will be completely different," the telex.hu server reminded.

According to the server hang.hu, it is not yet clear what topics will be the subject of the Budapest meeting, whether, for example, the issue of temporarily renewed checks on the Slovak-Hungarian border due to illegal migration will be raised.

https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/FVrWYI3/viktor-orban-privita-v-budapesti-roberta-fica/



According to Fico, Slovakia will condemn if violations of ballistic missile agreements are proven
10.01.2024 20:09

If proven, the government will condemn violations of international agreements banning the use of ballistic missiles. This was stated by Prime Minister Robert Fico (Smer-SD). At the same time, he appreciated the sovereign attitude of Foreign Minister Juraj Blanár (Smer-SD). His opinion was provided by the Press and Information Department of the Government Office of the Slovak Republic.

The prime minister pointed out that the draft statement on North Korean ballistic missiles was submitted by the US without the possibility of interfering with the text and without evidence. "Our government respects that there are international agreements that prohibit the use of such missiles. And it will condemn their violation if proven. Just as we have described the use of Russian military force in Ukraine as a violation of international law. But we are too experienced to agree with everything without relevant evidence," said Fico.

He noted that Slovakia has ended the era of cheap latching on to everything and will behave like a sovereign country. "We are also cautious because it has become almost a rule that a number of attacks originally designated as hostile have proven to be a failure of the Ukrainian army over time," Fico said. He also claims that the situation in Ukraine does not currently have a military solution, but only a political solution.

The head of Slovak diplomacy also announced on Wednesday that Slovakia is ready to condemn the transfer of weapons between Russia and North Korea after presenting relevant evidence, which it currently lacks. Blanar's stance has been criticized by opposition parties. In this context, Progressive Slovakia demands the convening of an extraordinary parliamentary foreign affairs committee.

The United States and its partners on Tuesday condemned arms transfers between North Korea and Russia, including the use of North Korean ballistic missiles against Ukraine at the turn of the year. The declaration has been signed by nearly 50 countries, including the United States, Canada, Australia, Japan and all European Union countries except Slovakia and Hungary.

https://www.topky.sk/cl/10/2659413/Slovensko-podla-Fica-odsudi--ak-sa-preukaze-porusenie-dohod-o-balistickych-raketach

Link Posted: 1/13/2024 2:23:13 PM EDT
[#46]
Russian journalist who criticized Putin's admin of 'gigantic corruption' found dead
Sat, January 13, 2024 at 10:18 AM EST

A journalist who took aim at Russian officials and promised to release details of "gigantic corruption" was found dead near a roadside over the weekend, but the circumstances of his death remain shrouded in mystery.

"It will be almost impossible to determine whether foul play was involved Rybin’s death or whether he died of heart disease as some Russian media outlets claim," Rebekah Koffler, a strategic military intelligence analyst and the author of "Putin's Playbook," told Fox News Digital.

Alexander Rybin, 39, was found near a highway some 130 miles outside the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, where he had spent time reporting on the Russian invasion. The official cause of death was that he died from "cardiomyopathy" after an autopsy, The Sun reported, citing Russian state media.

Some outlets have described Rybin as a pro-Kremlin journalist, but in the last few weeks of his life he had grown highly critical of officials in the region. He blamed rampant corruption for the slow rebuilding of the city and Donetsk region.

According to a translation from The Sun, Rybin explained that his "personal impression" — which he tried to stress was not an accusation of any kind — "is that there is a gigantic corruption going on in Mariupol, which the Russian army occupied with heavy fighting in spring 2022."

"The year 2023, in my opinion, is in no way easier for the residents of Mariupol than what was happening in 2022, unfortunately," he said, promising to deliver more details on the corruption, this time broadcasting from left-wing online platform Rabkor, according to The Times of India.

Koffler noted that "scores of Russian journalists" have ended up dead "in mysterious circumstances" after criticizing the Russian regime or Putin directly.

"What we also know for a fact is that the so-called ‘wet affairs,’ a term used for targeted assassinations, is a tradecraft of Russian intelligence used to eliminate the opponents of the regime," Koffler explained. "We also know that these operatives are extremely skilled at making their victim’s death look natural."

"Whether Rybin was such a victim of a targeted assassination will likely remain a mystery," she argued.

Petro Andriushchenko, an advisor to Mariupol’s mayor, tied Rybin’s death to his claims of corruption and tried to link it to Russian officials in the city.

Rybin’s death followed the mysterious death of Zoya Konovalova, the Kuban propaganda channel chief editor, who was found dead of suspected poisoning.

Reports of Rybin’s death stressed the fact that his bank cards and valuables remained undisturbed following his death. The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation for Rostov Region stated that the death did not show any criminal signs.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/russian-journalist-who-criticized-putins-admin-gigantic-corruption-found-dead

Link Posted: 1/13/2024 2:29:29 PM EDT
[#47]
Seems Polands left of center govt has already pissed off the country..
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 2:30:37 PM EDT
[#48]
Olynea airbase that houses the cruise missile launching Tu-95s is 1300 miles from Kyiv and their launching area in the Caspian Sea is 900 miles away.
It’s too bad they don’t have a way to get at them.
An F16 would have to fly a LONG way through hostile airspace to get close enough for a shot.

I recently saw a picture from a flight tracking app(it may have been in this thread) that showed the closed airspace area in the Caspian Sea and how air traffic is routed around it. I can’t seem to find the picture now though. Alarms go out whenever those planes takeoff, how does Ukraine know?
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 3:03:13 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Saltwater-Hillbilly] [#49]
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Originally Posted By Cypher15:
Seems Polands left of center govt has already pissed off the country..
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When you look at the "new" Polish government and who it entails, I'm surprised it took this long.  A collection of recycled international bright young things who failed previously, disaffected Eurocrats, and Social-democrats with anger issues running on a platform of retribution not achieving comity, good will, and success?  Color me shocked!
Link Posted: 1/13/2024 3:17:41 PM EDT
[#50]
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Originally Posted By Brok3n:

Agree, it should be priority to go after the medium and long range SAMs and their associated radar systems as these things are far, far harder to replace than armor. Creating big holes in their airspace will cause panic within the Russian officer corp.
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Originally Posted By Brok3n:
Originally Posted By Capta:
I don't think the F-16s will be going after SUs for a long time.
If Mig-29s can survive by being careful, so can F-16s.  Ukraine has only lost 7-8 aircraft all of 2023 (vs 60 in 2022) per Oryx.
Mig-29s have already been launching HARMS "dumb."  F-16s will do it better and will probably start extracting a higher toll of SAMs pretty quickly.
The Russians rely on their SAM coverage.  It's like their minefield doctrine.  The SAMs are mines.  The SUs are ATGMs.  Except in this case the MCLIC (HARM) outranges the ATGM.

Agree, it should be priority to go after the medium and long range SAMs and their associated radar systems as these things are far, far harder to replace than armor. Creating big holes in their airspace will cause panic within the Russian officer corp.

Russia had a whole lot of air defense prior to the war. Ukraine keeps hitting them slowly and steadily. A huge wave of hits on SAM radar & controllers could open up holes big enough for Bayraktar to start making dance mixes again. When Russian SAMS are absent, Bayraktar counts as good air-ground power. That could be a strategic gain.
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