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Posted: 6/17/2022 11:19:34 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Everyone WAS harmed during the making of this video.  Greatest hits with Queen music. Instant classic. 
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Posted: 6/17/2022 11:20:48 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: That's a great analogy, I like it even better than my silly bear one. You may be right about their CoG; artillery seems to be the only weapon they can use effectively. I was sort of hoping that the Switchblade 600s would help the Ukrainians to destroy tubes if not the crews at the same time, but it's apparently a lot more difficult to find them. My suspicion is that it isn't for a lack of shooters, but a relative lack of sensors (ability to recon 18-24km behind the front line). Every time I see these nice drone clips over Ru artillery positions, I wonder how they managed to get those clips at all, and how old they are, because being near enough to get that footage is butt-pucker factor level 10,000.  Remember that bear has other posts to worry about. They just lost guys today in Syria (I mean if you can’t trust AQ affiliated jihadists who can you trust), and while there’s no geography that will make them go home, there is geography that will make Putin reevaluate how much he really trusts his security apparatus of body doubles and staff rotations. At some point, things will unravel domestically, and I find it hard to believe that Crimea wouldn’t move that needle at least a bit. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 11:21:23 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Only slightly less shitty video.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine hit the tug of the Russian Black Sea Fleet "Vasily Bekh". It was equipped with the TOR anti-aircraft missile system and was located next to Zmiin. The head of the Odessa OVA, Maksym Marchenko, stated that he had been hit by Harpoon missiles
Russian navy affiliated TG confirms https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVb7iJrXEAEjGyZ?format=jpg&name=large Good thread on the location.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVb-RC8X0AAp92g?format=jpg&name=medium Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Originally Posted By Gunslinger808:
Only slightly less shitty video.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine hit the tug of the Russian Black Sea Fleet "Vasily Bekh". It was equipped with the TOR anti-aircraft missile system and was located next to Zmiin. The head of the Odessa OVA, Maksym Marchenko, stated that he had been hit by Harpoon missiles
Russian navy affiliated TG confirms https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVb7iJrXEAEjGyZ?format=jpg&name=large Good thread on the location.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVb-RC8X0AAp92g?format=jpg&name=medium Good sink. They've been using this "rescue ship" as a ferry for vehicles to Snake Island. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 11:23:47 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By iggy1337: Hey Tugboats are the cornerstone of Rusian navy doctrine  Dunno how good the Harpoons they are getting are vs their home grown Neptunes. Dutch.gov yesterday said they were giving Ukraine Harpoons  I mixed up Harpoons and Neptunes...meant to say first use of Harpoons. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 11:27:24 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: Joe Biden's only skills and best instincts are for self-enrichment. He has proven that over his decades of "public service". It's trite by this point but he and his crackhead son are the poster children for that quadrant of the whole "weak men create hard times" meme.  Worst of all its not limited to one place like Ukraine or thing like inflation; the border, China, Afghanistan, it’s endless how badly his bullshit has impacted domestically and overseas. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 11:30:33 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dracster: Good sink. They've been using this "rescue ship" as a ferry for vehicles to Snake Island. While it would be very satisfying to see Russian SSKs and other cruise missile platforms burning in port, it could be nearly as useful to attack tugs, port infrastructure, and other things, which would undermine or outright stop their ability to re-arm themselves. But I doubt the Ukrainians have the range or the access to timely-enough targeting info in order to do that very often right now. Here's hoping that changes in the future. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 11:33:38 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: Worst of all its not limited to one place like Ukraine or thing like inflation; the border, China, Afghanistan, it’s endless how badly his bullshit has impacted domestically and overseas. I try not to think about that very often, it hurts my soul. 
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Posted: 6/17/2022 11:34:25 AM EDT
[#8]
Getting coordinates of a ship in a harbor isn’t so hard. They can do that with commercial images let alone US help.
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Posted: 6/17/2022 11:34:55 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nomansland: I think CharlieR is correct that it is most difficult for Russia to quickly reconstitute skilled toops (C3, EW/intel/drone/targeting people, artillery), then move logistics (ammo dumps), then weapons/equipment (artillery systems). Piecing together the reports it seems Ukraine is trying to do this with the limited capabilites they currently have. I'm not sure how much of an issue the L49 and L54 are of the 2A36 and 2A65 vs our L39 M777 - standard rounds the Russian tubes outrange us at least from the online data I see, but there are RAP shells, etc. so I'm not sure how big a factor that is on counter-battery. I'm sure MLRS would put them in a much better situation. I wonder how many pieces Russia has committed to this fight and approximately number of rounds a day that are expending. Wiki lists the Russian army total as: Towed: 2A36 (L49) 141 active (1100 reserve); 2A65 Msta-B (L54) 250 active (600 reserve) Self-Propelled: 2S3 (L28) 800 active (1000 reserve); 2S19 Msta-S (L47) 935 active; 2S5 Giatsint-S (L52 - it is an open gun, no turret) 114 active (850 reserve) I saw the same report yesterday about how Biden wanted Austin and Blinken to tone down their remarks. I'm really not sure what to make of this and why it is being floated now. Biden made the statement in Poland that Putin "cannot remain in power" on March 26 (which was then walked back somewhat by the whitehouse). It was not until April 25th that Austin (while in Kyiv) remarked "We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine". I'm not sure I see how the later goes further than the former (I suppose there is the perception that we are not trying to target the Russians as a country/population - which we are not but maybe there is concern about that perception). It seems odd this was floated the same day Macron is more willing to militarily support Ukraine. The contradictions, incoherence and lack of a continuous unified voice on message from NATO leaders like Biden is only playing into Moscow’s hands. Putin sees Bulgaria, Greece and Hungary waffling and mixed messages and actions from Italy, Germany and France that compound the problems. I personally doubt Russia has over the 100,000 round count for whatever systems they have in Donbass but I know Ukraine needs more ammo and France and Italy could do less grandstanding and provide artillery rounds instead of photo shoots. All these Euro countries would shit on the USA for being reckless cowboy so it’s their turn to show leadership and from what I see it’s mediocre. We’ll see if it’s deeds not words come August. There’s no excuse to take till winter to follow thru on their promises. |
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CA, USA
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Posted: 6/17/2022 11:35:26 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Just came across this elsewhere. This is in Belgorod, so it's fucking up a Russian waterway, not a Ukrainian one. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Originally Posted By M-1975: Oops:
Just came across this elsewhere. This is in Belgorod, so it's fucking up a Russian waterway, not a Ukrainian one. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 11:35:37 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: All the systems are extremely long lead time pieces of gear. If they’re not already in production getting re-delivered to someone items that start construction today may take one to two years in a bit to deliver. In the military acquisitions world the rule thumb is 18 to 24 months from contract to delivery of initial capability. It’s kind of myth that there is a ramped up production for a wartime footing for many weapons that is any faster than it would be in peacetime Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: Originally Posted By Charging_Handle: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Fuck Germany and France. Once this is all over and settled, maybe Ukraine, Poland, etc can negotiate with Russia on a corridor through there territory leading to germany for the next round. Has any country ever had a more consistently shitty leadership than those two? Yeah, they suck. But at least for now, they aren't getting in the way. With Germany and France, that alone is a win. I never really expected Germany or France to provide Ukraine with tanks. In truth, they don't have enough modern tanks in service to be able to do so even if they wanted to. But if they can send some artillery, then great. That is needed more than tanks right now. The German PzH-2000 and French CAESAR are some excellent self-propelled guns. Even in smaller quantities, these are the kinds of weapons that can make a big difference for Ukraine. The fact that France is moving to a war time production footing is indicative of further support coming. If France does nothing more than keep the CAESARS and 155 rounds coming, that will still be a terrific contribution. The other stuff Ukraine needs can be sourced from elsewhere. All the systems are extremely long lead time pieces of gear. If they’re not already in production getting re-delivered to someone items that start construction today may take one to two years in a bit to deliver. In the military acquisitions world the rule thumb is 18 to 24 months from contract to delivery of initial capability. It’s kind of myth that there is a ramped up production for a wartime footing for many weapons that is any faster than it would be in peacetime I'm sure we could reduce that timeline significantly, but it would require tremendous money, political will and sacrifice to do it (DPA of auto manufactures and other industries to retool). We aren't there yet (outside of this thread a lot don't seem to support this effort) and I'm not sure it is that critical if we can otherwise meet that need. |
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CA, USA
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Posted: 6/17/2022 11:43:27 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 74HC]
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Russia can declare anything they want, but if they lack the capacity to enforce it, it doesn't matter. Yes, Putin would go apoplectic over Ukraine moving into Crimea. But there's a point coming where he can't stop them, either. Russia is losing ALL their top-line military capacity. Conscripts called up to be thrown against veteran forces in desperation is a bad move. My theory is this: attrition, attrition, attrition, blitzkrieg. Ukraine is not gaining much, but inflicting heavy losses in men, materiel, and morale. And we haven't even seen those hundreds of Polish tanks, Switchblade drones, Himars, etc, etc. Once Russia is worn down enough, Ukraine could launch a massive, sudden attack with a large force with fresh training and fresh equipment, pushing from Zaporozhizhia down through Melitopol, and then over to Armiansk. At that point, every Russian left to the north and west from that move becomes a POW - thousands of them. There likely would not be enough ground forces in Crimea to stop them. And unlike Russia at Mariupol, it would not be necessary for Ukraine to enter and destroy Sevostopol to achieve victory; surround them, and await their surrender as they sit without food, ammo, and water. That's all just empty spinning from an uninformed mind, though. It's worth nothing. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By Wreckshooter: Ukraine is hanging on by just about a pinkie right now. A return to Feb 2022 lines is possible, I think a return to pre-2014 lines is a bridge too far. Russia will declare it an invasion of Russia-proper and likely resort to mass mobilization. The latter will take a while to have an effect on the battlefield but it will have an eventual effect. And Ukraine mowing down thousands of Russians in the Crimea will likely shift Russian public sentiment for the war. Not just, not right, just what will happen. Oh, and energy supplies to Germany get shut off as the winter approaches and Germany reverts to Russia's bitch. Russia can declare anything they want, but if they lack the capacity to enforce it, it doesn't matter. Yes, Putin would go apoplectic over Ukraine moving into Crimea. But there's a point coming where he can't stop them, either. Russia is losing ALL their top-line military capacity. Conscripts called up to be thrown against veteran forces in desperation is a bad move. My theory is this: attrition, attrition, attrition, blitzkrieg. Ukraine is not gaining much, but inflicting heavy losses in men, materiel, and morale. And we haven't even seen those hundreds of Polish tanks, Switchblade drones, Himars, etc, etc. Once Russia is worn down enough, Ukraine could launch a massive, sudden attack with a large force with fresh training and fresh equipment, pushing from Zaporozhizhia down through Melitopol, and then over to Armiansk. At that point, every Russian left to the north and west from that move becomes a POW - thousands of them. There likely would not be enough ground forces in Crimea to stop them. And unlike Russia at Mariupol, it would not be necessary for Ukraine to enter and destroy Sevostopol to achieve victory; surround them, and await their surrender as they sit without food, ammo, and water. That's all just empty spinning from an uninformed mind, though. It's worth nothing. A true warrior never makes threats. A weak one makes a lot of threats which is what Putin has been doing for the past 4 months, probably longer. Putin is just a weak bully that europe refuses to call him on it. The mentality of european leaders is their neighborhood can burn down as long as it's not their house. BTW, my Dutch friend has told me that Nord 2 is online, but not "online" as defined and stated by Olaf (which he does not define what they mean by online). It's running at a reduced capacity as part of the "certification" process. I have to believe that certification process doesn't violate any EU sanctions. He pointed out that pipeline's capacity is large, that even running at a reduced capacity is significant for Germany. He believes that Nord 2's purpose from Germany's perspective is to give them a manufacturing edge over other EU countries with cheaper energy. |
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USA
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Posted: 6/17/2022 11:53:57 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: So France is literally saying they want Ukraine to take back Crimea while at the same time saying they will not give Ukraine the weapons to do it. Perfect. It's a giant circle jerk from Nato. There is no unified message. No one wants to be in charge (Biden) in case it doesn't go well. No one will decide what the objectives are and how to get there Weapons deliveries are like a pot luck dinner. People promise all kinds of things. Some show, some don't, the things you expect show up less than needed. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 12:04:14 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: While it would be very satisfying to see Russian SSKs and other cruise missile platforms burning in port, it could be nearly as useful to attack tugs, port infrastructure, and other things, which would undermine or outright stop their ability to re-arm themselves. But I doubt the Ukrainians have the range or the access to timely-enough targeting info in order to do that very often right now. Here's hoping that changes in the future. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: Originally Posted By Dracster: Good sink. They've been using this "rescue ship" as a ferry for vehicles to Snake Island. While it would be very satisfying to see Russian SSKs and other cruise missile platforms burning in port, it could be nearly as useful to attack tugs, port infrastructure, and other things, which would undermine or outright stop their ability to re-arm themselves. But I doubt the Ukrainians have the range or the access to timely-enough targeting info in order to do that very often right now. Here's hoping that changes in the future. Ukraine said a bit ago that they had purchased a satellite. I don't know if that means if they have operational control of it or if they just have exclusive use of it. This WSJ blurb seems to indicate they are almost getting real-time data. "MDA said on Tuesday that it had secured special authorization from the Canadian government to collect satellite imagery over restricted areas in Ukraine. Captured images "will be merged and analyzed with other sources of imagery from commercial Earth observation companies to develop comprehensive near-real-time intelligence reports for Ukrainian government officials," MDA Chief Executive Mike Greenley said." |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 12:10:00 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Dracster]
[#15]
"Marines of the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to seize British armored vehicles Mastiff
In the south of Ukraine, intensive training of units of a separate battalion of the Marine Brigade. Rear Admiral Mykhailo Ostrohradsky until further assignment. During the exercises, the Marines mastered all types of weapons provided by our partners, in particular, the video shows the use of Mastiff patrol cars (6x6) Step by step to Victory!"  Attached File Attached File Attached File Attached File Attached File Attached File |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 12:20:45 PM EDT
[#16]
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Posted: 6/17/2022 12:44:56 PM EDT
[Last Edit: _disconnector_]
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: While it would be very satisfying to see Russian SSKs and other cruise missile platforms burning in port, it could be nearly as useful to attack tugs, port infrastructure, and other things, which would undermine or outright stop their ability to re-arm themselves. But I doubt the Ukrainians have the range or the access to timely-enough targeting info in order to do that very often right now. Here's hoping that changes in the future. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: Originally Posted By Dracster: Good sink. They've been using this "rescue ship" as a ferry for vehicles to Snake Island. While it would be very satisfying to see Russian SSKs and other cruise missile platforms burning in port, it could be nearly as useful to attack tugs, port infrastructure, and other things, which would undermine or outright stop their ability to re-arm themselves. But I doubt the Ukrainians have the range or the access to timely-enough targeting info in order to do that very often right now. Here's hoping that changes in the future. "Dear 8-pound, 6-ounce, newborn infant Jesus. Don't even know a word yet, but still omnipotent, with your golden diapers . . . please let the Ukes slot a really nasty PGM into a Russian sub in Crimea and sink it in the harbor. Preferably with drone video. Amen" |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 12:47:40 PM EDT
[#18]
Putin just made a speech, no need to watch for you non hardcore deep dive types but it’s obvious Putin knows he needs an economy if he wants to maintain his hopes for achieving his goals, at least for a while. He’s 69? Xi Jingping looks older but is actually a year younger
 REPLAY: Putin dismisses 'stupid' Western sanctions 'blitzkrieg' • FRANCE 24 English |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 12:52:55 PM EDT
[#19]
POW vid:
"The first videos with captured American volunteers Alexander Dryuk and Andy Hun, who fell into the hands of an orc in the Kharkiv region"
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MI, USA
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Posted: 6/17/2022 12:54:33 PM EDT
[#20]
 ?? Russian MI-24 Hind Helicopter Downed By Ukrainian Igla MANPADS While Flying Extremely Low |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 12:59:13 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3525893-biden-told-austin-blinken-to-tone-down-remarks-supporting-ukraine-report/amp/ Two months ago. There has been some positive change since then. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 1:00:39 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975: POW vid: "The first videos with captured American volunteers Alexander Dryuk and Andy Hun, who fell into the hands of an orc in the Kharkiv region"
Any new info on 3rd missing US citizen? The retired USMC vet? |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 1:15:46 PM EDT
[#23]
Kyiv Independent reported June 15 that "Canada to send $7 million worth of howitzer replacement barrels to Ukraine.
Canada is sending 10 replacement barrels to Ukraine to maintain distance range and accuracy of the M777 howitzer artillery guns, country’s Defense Minister Anita Anand announced on June 15." Another tweet said that the barrel has to be replaced after 2500 rds to maintain accuracy. I'm glad they are getting good use out of these systems. I wonder if the Russians try to perform similar barrel changes and have stocks to draw from or if that comes off reserves (possibly they aren't as concerned about accuracy in how they employ them). I also wonder if the maintenance sustainability was biggest reason for not also sending the M198s (no clue if the barrels are different enough the could/couldn't be sustained with current manufacturing or stocks). I don't think C17 airlift capacity matters enough between the two systems at least at the numbers being sent (the C17 is an amazingly capable system). I did worry that the titanium on the M777 might be an issue if we had to ramp production but it appears the US gets most of its titanium from Japan (China, Japan, Russia biggest producers in that order). |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 1:28:01 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: Worst of all its not limited to one place like Ukraine or thing like inflation; the border, China, Afghanistan, it’s endless how badly his bullshit has impacted domestically and overseas. From the mouth of Barrack Obama: "never underestimate Joe's ability to fuck things up" |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 1:30:51 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Ukraine doesn’t need to blockade Sevastopol. They need to take or bypass Kherson, then drive far enough into Crimea to level Sevastopol with 155s, They can practically hit it with MLRS from where they are. Ukraine holding a position of strength in Crimea is literally the only thing that will force Russia to the table. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Circuits: Since Ukraine lacks a Navy at the moment, Ukraine can't truly surround Sevastopol, nor effectively blockade it unless they were somehow able to get enough artillery close enough to close off the port with land based batteries. Whether Russia could muster sufficient cargo capacity to resupply a city under siege would then remain to be seen, if a blockade wouldn't be achievable. Ukraine doesn’t need to blockade Sevastopol. They need to take or bypass Kherson, then drive far enough into Crimea to level Sevastopol with 155s, They can practically hit it with MLRS from where they are. Ukraine holding a position of strength in Crimea is literally the only thing that will force Russia to the table. All this would succeed in accomplishing is convincing the West they should no longer support UA and weapon/heavy equipment shipments would cease overnight. Sevastopol, I assume, is largely in evacuated or concerned about being in danger at the moment. The instant UA starts leveling a civilian areas you will see it plastered on every news station and even staunch supporters of Ukraine like the former WP countries will begin to get cold feet. I believe Crimea, in the scope of this war, is unattainable for Ukraine. Though admittedly, I haven’t seen recent demographics of those in Crimea and where they stand with joining UA vs RU. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 1:32:40 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dracster: "Marines of the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to seize British armored vehicles Mastiff In the south of Ukraine, intensive training of units of a separate battalion of the Marine Brigade. Rear Admiral Mykhailo Ostrohradsky until further assignment. During the exercises, the Marines mastered all types of weapons provided by our partners, in particular, the video shows the use of Mastiff patrol cars (6x6) Step by step to Victory!" https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-06-17_09-03-00_jpg-2421154.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-06-17_09-03-06_jpg-2421156.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-06-17_09-03-07_jpg-2421160.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-06-17_09-03-01_jpg-2421161.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-06-17_09-03-06__2__jpg-2421163.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-06-17_09-03-05_jpg-2421164.JPG I suppose that is an MG-3 in 7.62x51 or who knows it might be an old MG-42 in 7.92x57... I mean after all we are seeing Mosins in service. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 1:33:51 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CharlieR: I disagree with that. This isn't capture the flag. There is NO piece of ground that will stop the war... There was a New York City Cop who said if you're in a wrestling match with a man with a gun, doesn't matter how many times you get hit in the face...take away the gun. That's all that matters. The center of gravity of this war are the Russian artillerymen. The weapons that kill them is what the Ukrainians have needed since day 1. The refusal of the blind men in this administration to see that is really breathtaking. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CharlieR: Originally Posted By Capta: … Ukraine holding a position of strength in Crimea is literally the only thing that will force Russia to the table. I disagree with that. This isn't capture the flag. There is NO piece of ground that will stop the war... There was a New York City Cop who said if you're in a wrestling match with a man with a gun, doesn't matter how many times you get hit in the face...take away the gun. That's all that matters. The center of gravity of this war are the Russian artillerymen. The weapons that kill them is what the Ukrainians have needed since day 1. The refusal of the blind men in this administration to see that is really breathtaking. Crimea is a piece of ground that can stop the war. Just because Clausewitz is old, doesn't mean he's wrong: "War is the continuation of policy with other means." The nexus of the war isn't reuniting the Rus brotherhood or de-Nazifying as the propaganda states. It's to take the key economic and security zones by a) taking the resource-rich Donbas basin, b) improve the security of Rostov-on-Don, c) lay claim to the energy resources in the Crimean littoral, and d) improve the bases and strategic positioning of the Black Sea Fleet. Basically, steal energy and industrial capacity from a neighbor to bolster internal failures. Taking Crimea negates all of that and makes the policy/war bankrupt. It violates the imperial myth that keep Russian leaders in power, and has for four hundred years. It is precisely the thing that breaks authoritarian imperial regimes in Russia and has regardless of what face you put on it: Czarist, Soviet, interregnum (Yeltsin fell because of Chechnya, hence Putin), or the current klepto-fascist regime. Taking Crimea doesn't mean the end of Russia, but it almost certainly means the end of Putin and the current kleptocracy. It's life or death for the regime - literally. The "center of gravity" in this war is not any tactical battlefield asset like artillery - that may be partially so at the lesser operational level. At the strategic level, Crimea is absolutely a center of gravity that can alter the war. I did not intend to circle back to Clausewitz, but this USAF primer on the CoG concept can make it more apparent: https://www.doctrine.af.mil/Portals/61/documents/AFDP_3-0/3-0-D30-Appendix-1-COG-Analysis.pdf In your analogy, Crimea IS the gun. Take it away and the whole rotten façade crumbles. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 1:37:21 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Firefly1032: All this would succeed in accomplishing is convincing the West they should no longer support UA and weapon/heavy equipment shipments would cease overnight. Sevastopol, I assume, is largely in evacuated or concerned about being in danger at the moment. The instant UA starts leveling a civilian areas you will see it plastered on every news station and even staunch supporters of Ukraine like the former WP countries will begin to get cold feet. I believe Crimea, in the scope of this war, is unattainable for Ukraine. Though admittedly, I haven’t seen recent demographics of those in Crimea and where they stand with joining UA vs RU. Mixed from what I’ve gotten. Russians seem fixated on it for historical reasons and think it’s in their sphere but I’ve seen reports that the populace there is vehemently anti Russian and even if Russia seized it they’d be dealing with an immediate insurgency. Kherson supposedly has a pocket of resistance right in the middle but other than non military activities I haven’t seen much violence wise there. Plus you have civilians fleeing conflict areas. There’s British news about homeless Ukrainian families who expected help in the UK but are stuck in the street. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 2:01:08 PM EDT
[#29]
 Failed To Load Title |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 2:03:30 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: Mixed from what I’ve gotten. Russians seem fixated on it for historical reasons and think it’s in their sphere but I’ve seen reports that the populace there is vehemently anti Russian and even if Russia seized it they’d be dealing with an immediate insurgency. Kherson supposedly has a pocket of resistance right in the middle but other than non military activities I haven’t seen much violence wise there. Plus you have civilians fleeing conflict areas. There’s British news about homeless Ukrainian families who expected help in the UK but are stuck in the street. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/ukraine-children-refugees-homeless-councils-uk-b2102638.html?amp  Attached File |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 2:30:10 PM EDT
[#31]
Meanwhile, Boris Johnson steals Macron and Scholz's thunder.
Surprise trip to Kyiv immediately after them, announces firm UK support and 'no compromises' with Russia. UK and Poland (others too?) will set up training camps to produce 10,000 new soldiers every 100 days. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61839196 slightly more detail on the training: https://www.laprensalatina.com/pm-johnson-offers-ukraine-uk-led-military-training-program/ |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 2:35:06 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: UK and Poland (others too?) will set up training camps to produce 10,000 new soldiers every 100 days. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61839196 slightly more detail on the training: https://www.laprensalatina.com/pm-johnson-offers-ukraine-uk-led-military-training-program/ That’s more along the lines I’ve been thinking about. I feel like the ARNG program paid dividends so something on that scale will be very beneficial for Ukraine. |
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USA
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Posted: 6/17/2022 2:54:59 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nomansland: I think CharlieR is correct that it is most difficult for Russia to quickly reconstitute skilled toops (C3, EW/intel/drone/targeting people, artillery), then move logistics (ammo dumps), then weapons/equipment (artillery systems). Piecing together the reports it seems Ukraine is trying to do this with the limited capabilites they currently have. I'm not sure how much of an issue the L49 and L54 are of the 2A36 and 2A65 vs our L39 M777 - standard rounds the Russian tubes outrange us at least from the online data I see, but there are RAP shells, etc. so I'm not sure how big a factor that is on counter-battery. I'm sure MLRS would put them in a much better situation. I wonder how many pieces Russia has committed to this fight and approximately number of rounds a day that are expending. Wiki lists the Russian army total as: Towed: 2A36 (L49) 141 active (1100 reserve); 2A65 Msta-B (L54) 250 active (600 reserve) Self-Propelled: 2S3 (L28) 800 active (1000 reserve); 2S19 Msta-S (L47) 935 active; 2S5 Giatsint-S (L52 - it is an open gun, no turret) 114 active (850 reserve) I saw the same report yesterday about how Biden wanted Austin and Blinken to tone down their remarks. I'm really not sure what to make of this and why it is being floated now. Biden made the statement in Poland that Putin "cannot remain in power" on March 26 (which was then walked back somewhat by the whitehouse). It was not until April 25th that Austin (while in Kyiv) remarked "We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine". I'm not sure I see how the later goes further than the former (I suppose there is the perception that we are not trying to target the Russians as a country/population - which we are not but maybe there is concern about that perception). It seems odd this was floated the same day Macron is more willing to militarily support Ukraine. Public statements by Biden and other western leaders is an interesting subject. Yes, it could just be disjointed or unintentional to some extent. But I tend to think that we’re playing intentional games with our stated aims to keep the Russians off balance, guessing, and grasping at straws. If they don’t really know what our aims are they can’t tailor a counter-strategy. The same could be said of Ukrainian/Russian negotiations. Ultimately, IMO, the aim has been to suck Russia deeper and deeper into the war while allowing them to continue to think they can win. Giving Ukraine 200 MLRS on Feb 25th would’ve saved a lot of Ukrainian soldiers, but even that fool Putin would’ve gotten the message to nope out of there in a hurry. Now the Russian army is being turned to hamburger, the economy is failing, and Russia is self-isolating through their own idiotic and barbaric actions. Yeah, “Ukrainian Rope-A-Dope” was the plan. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 3:00:56 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#34]
Russian drone watching Ukrainian soldiers rescue their wounded and dead while under accurate fire. Drone zooms in at :24 seconds, guys drag wounded to safety and go back out to get more while under fire.
This may have been recorded in March, no foliage. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vekxyw/ukrainians_rescue_woundeddead_under_a_heavy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 3:02:27 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Firefly1032: All this would succeed in accomplishing is convincing the West they should no longer support UA and weapon/heavy equipment shipments would cease overnight. Sevastopol, I assume, is largely in evacuated or concerned about being in danger at the moment. The instant UA starts leveling a civilian areas you will see it plastered on every news station and even staunch supporters of Ukraine like the former WP countries will begin to get cold feet. I believe Crimea, in the scope of this war, is unattainable for Ukraine. Though admittedly, I haven't seen recent demographics of those in Crimea and where they stand with joining UA vs RU. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Firefly1032: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Circuits: Since Ukraine lacks a Navy at the moment, Ukraine can't truly surround Sevastopol, nor effectively blockade it unless they were somehow able to get enough artillery close enough to close off the port with land based batteries. Whether Russia could muster sufficient cargo capacity to resupply a city under siege would then remain to be seen, if a blockade wouldn't be achievable. Ukraine doesn't need to blockade Sevastopol. They need to take or bypass Kherson, then drive far enough into Crimea to level Sevastopol with 155s, They can practically hit it with MLRS from where they are. Ukraine holding a position of strength in Crimea is literally the only thing that will force Russia to the table. All this would succeed in accomplishing is convincing the West they should no longer support UA and weapon/heavy equipment shipments would cease overnight. Sevastopol, I assume, is largely in evacuated or concerned about being in danger at the moment. The instant UA starts leveling a civilian areas you will see it plastered on every news station and even staunch supporters of Ukraine like the former WP countries will begin to get cold feet. I believe Crimea, in the scope of this war, is unattainable for Ukraine. Though admittedly, I haven't seen recent demographics of those in Crimea and where they stand with joining UA vs RU. I believe both the previous posters were referring to Sevastopol Naval Base, not the city proper. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 3:03:55 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: That’s more along the lines I’ve been thinking about. I feel like the ARNG program paid dividends so something on that scale will be very beneficial for Ukraine. Clearly, they did a lot of good. Doing it on a retail scale now will set them up to make next year interesting. I've heard second hand from some USAF pilots about their training with the Ukr over the last ~five years. I don't know as much about the ground component. I believe you said somewhere you were in the Guard, or had more knowledge about that? |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 3:05:25 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Crimea is a piece of ground that can stop the war. Just because Clausewitz is old, doesn't mean he's wrong: "War is the continuation of policy with other means." The nexus of the war isn't reuniting the Rus brotherhood or de-Nazifying as the propaganda states. It's to take the key economic and security zones by a) taking the resource-rich Donbas basin, b) improve the security of Rostov-on-Don, c) lay claim to the energy resources in the Crimean littoral, and d) improve the bases and strategic positioning of the Black Sea Fleet. Basically, steal energy and industrial capacity from a neighbor to bolster internal failures. Taking Crimea negates all of that and makes the policy/war bankrupt. It violates the imperial myth that keep Russian leaders in power, and has for four hundred years. It is precisely the thing that breaks authoritarian imperial regimes in Russia and has regardless of what face you put on it: Czarist, Soviet, interregnum (Yeltsin fell because of Chechnya, hence Putin), or the current klepto-fascist regime. Taking Crimea doesn't mean the end of Russia, but it almost certainly means the end of Putin and the current kleptocracy. It's life or death for the regime - literally. The "center of gravity" in this war is not any tactical battlefield asset like artillery - that may be partially so at the lesser operational level. At the strategic level, Crimea is absolutely a center of gravity that can alter the war. I did not intend to circle back to Clausewitz, but this USAF primer on the CoG concept can make it more apparent: https://www.doctrine.af.mil/Portals/61/documents/AFDP_3-0/3-0-D30-Appendix-1-COG-Analysis.pdf In your analogy, Crimea IS the gun. Take it away and the whole rotten façade crumbles. Haha, I salute you sir. Quality post, truly. I was just taking a SWAG at it, but of course I should have known better, there would have to be CGSC or SAMS grads lurking around here (or just people with more energy to google than I have). Words mean things, I just know that terms like "CoG" get bandied about and debated endlessly, and a lot more people like to quote Clausewitz than have actually ever read him cover to cover (and I am one of those guilty of that, but in my defense I don't set policy or strategy, and I don't think enough of those folks have, either).  As an aside, you guys have posted so many YT videos and documentaries, and linked so many articles/manuals/doctrine/policy papers, that I nearly could get a Masters, if I could somehow turn all this good stuff into a recognized degree. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 3:10:56 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: That's more along the lines I've been thinking about. I feel like the ARNG program paid dividends so something on that scale will be very beneficial for Ukraine. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: Originally Posted By Jack67: UK and Poland (others too?) will set up training camps to produce 10,000 new soldiers every 100 days. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61839196 slightly more detail on the training: https://www.laprensalatina.com/pm-johnson-offers-ukraine-uk-led-military-training-program/ That's more along the lines I've been thinking about. I feel like the ARNG program paid dividends so something on that scale will be very beneficial for Ukraine. Great Britain, Poland and Ukraine signed a defense cooperation agreement the week before Russia invaded. They seem to be cooperating pretty well in such a short time. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 3:13:17 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryYou know, I love the A-10 as much as the next guy, but I just can't imagine those tactics are very effective. Maybe the Ukrainians lack for enough electronic systems, but if someone can explain to me whether/how the A-10 would do much better, given the same operating environment, I would love to know. If MANPADs are the #1 threat, then there isn't anything except for flares or avoiding the area entirely, AFAIK. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 3:19:36 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Public statements by Biden and other western leaders is an interesting subject. Yes, it could just be disjointed or unintentional to some extent. But I tend to think that we’re playing intentional games with our stated aims to keep the Russians off balance, guessing, and grasping at straws. If they don’t really know what our aims are they can’t tailor a counter-strategy. The same could be said of Ukrainian/Russian negotiations. Ultimately, IMO, the aim has been to suck Russia deeper and deeper into the war while allowing them to continue to think they can win. Giving Ukraine 200 MLRS on Feb 25th would’ve saved a lot of Ukrainian soldiers, but even that fool Putin would’ve gotten the message to nope out of there in a hurry. Now the Russian army is being turned to hamburger, the economy is failing, and Russia is self-isolating through their own idiotic and barbaric actions. Yeah, “Ukrainian Rope-A-Dope” was the plan. That is an almost endearing level of trust/faith in our government, or any other democratic member of a coalition. Nah my dude, Russia is a unitary security state, and everyone who has their job has it mainly because while they may not all be reading off the same sheet of music, they ALL know what the conductor likes to hear and how to play in tune. Meanwhile Western governments are like a bag of cats, where every agency of their government, and every political party within their countries, each wants something a little different.
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FL, USA
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Posted: 6/17/2022 3:21:47 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Everyone WAS harmed during the making of this video. Greatest hits with Queen music. 10/10 |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 3:27:06 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Clearly, they did a lot of good. Doing it on a retail scale now will set them up to make next year interesting. I've heard second hand from some USAF pilots about their training with the Ukr over the last ~five years. I don't know as much about the ground component. I believe you said somewhere you were in the Guard, or had more knowledge about that? It’s been ongoing for a long time. The Air National Guard was interacting with Ukraine before 9/11 but this program took on a new focus post Crimea. We have ARF members who were there in 2018 with the Tennessee ARNG if I recall. Honestly I’ve been expecting 10th SFG and one of the SFAB units to assist Ukraine in Poland and Romania. In my opinion the Ukrainians are demonstrating proficiencies obtained from working with the ARNG annually. Specifically tactical initiative, thinking outside of the box, redundancies etc. they’re not doing tre old Soviet model crap. Russia is reverting to tried and true to try and compensate for their failures. Which leads us right back to NATO leadership providing timely, continuous and relevant support. When Ukraine is getting nibbled as it’s saying we need ammo, we’ll, where the fuck is that ammo? You don’t want to send fighters? Okay, where’s the fucking ammo? You can’t leave people hanging. If Ukraine man’s their reserves, NATO trains & equips, then Kiev doesn’t have to worry about what is available to lead. Right now the inconsistencies are playing out on the battlefield and notice I have zero posts or threads besmirching UA over tactical setbacks. Given the situation compared to the Iraqi vs Isis, Kabul vs the Taliban, etc. the Ukrainians have demonstrated their resolve and ability to take training and equipment and succeed. The strategic failures all fall on European lack of true leadership and Biden.  Florida troops ordered out of Ukraine amid rising Russian tensions |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 3:29:32 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: You know, I love the A-10 as much as the next guy, but I just can't imagine those tactics are very effective. Maybe the Ukrainians lack for enough electronic systems, but if someone can explain to me whether/how the A-10 would do much better, given the same operating environment, I would love to know. If MANPADs are the #1 threat, then there isn't anything except for flares or avoiding the area entirely, AFAIK. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: You know, I love the A-10 as much as the next guy, but I just can't imagine those tactics are very effective. Maybe the Ukrainians lack for enough electronic systems, but if someone can explain to me whether/how the A-10 would do much better, given the same operating environment, I would love to know. If MANPADs are the #1 threat, then there isn't anything except for flares or avoiding the area entirely, AFAIK. It's a technology issue. If I had to use an A-10, it would have a NGJ jamming pod, and for IR manpads, the AN/AAQ-24(V). then you could go cluster bombing armor units with CBU-97 or -105https://www.northropgrumman.com/what-we-do/air/an-aaq-24v-dircm-directional-infrared-countermeasure/ https://www.navair.navy.mil/product/Next-Generation-Jammer |
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USA
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Posted: 6/17/2022 3:30:34 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CharlieR: I disagree with that. Putin has to be convinced the Russian Army cant get it done. They have to be attrited to the point that they run a couple of offensives and fail at them all. If Putin has 2000 tanks, manned trained equipped, and loses Crimea, the war goes on. If Putin has nothing left and offensive after offensive fails, he negotiates. This isn't capture the flag. There is NO piece of ground that will stop the war. Realistically, I think it isn't the stuff, its the operators. Kill these crews with their gear, more gear and conscripts perform infinitely worse. Given the way this has been going, what forces Putin to the table is killing his artillerymen. Everything else is secondary. There was a New York City Cop who said if you're in a wrestling match with a man with a gun, doesn't matter how many times you get hit in the face...take away the gun. That's all that matters. The center of gravity of this war are the Russian artillerymen. The weapons that kill them is what the Ukrainians have needed since day 1. The refusal of the blind men in this administration to see that is really breathtaking. I don’t think you’re entirely wrong about the necessity of killing Russians (particularly artillery) but you have to look at strategic vs tactical. Artillery is a tactical problem. These are the strategic issues: Russia has invested many decades building up Sevastopol as their only warm water port. They need Sevastopol and not another port further east because they correctly understand that eastern ports can be easily blockaded by Sevastopol. Russia has counted on cultivating or intimidating Turkey to deal with the Bosporus issue and allow Russia access to the Med. Ukraine (with Crimea) as a now permanently hostile state makes a defacto blockade of the Black Sea possible regardless of Turkey. Owning Crimea means owning the vast offshore oil and gas resources recently discovered there and under Donbas. Taking these resources for themselves, depriving Ukraine of them, and strengthening their energy blackmail over Europe are primary war aims for Russia. This is a RESOURCE war. The Nazi bullshit is opiate for the masses. Russia can dip into reserves of manpower and artillery for a long time. Years at least, and Putin (or whoever replaces him) won’t give a shit if 100,000 artillerymen die. However, Russia cannot tolerate losing Crimea, having Russian exports blockaded, and losing Crimean energy reserves and the political leverage that goes with them. No exports means no money from the west and no economy - Russia implodes in a year. The ability and the will to do what has to be done in Crimea will make 100,000 or 1,000,000 artillerymen irrelevant. |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 6/17/2022 3:35:07 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: Joe Biden's only skills and best instincts are for self-enrichment. He has proven that over his decades of "public service". It's trite by this point but he and his crackhead son are the poster children for that quadrant of the whole "weak men create hard times" meme. Agreed. Joe doesn't know what he is saying from day to day and when allowed to speak of the cuff, his emotions rule his mouth. But we, and Russia, know 100% that Joe isn't making the decisions or even setting the larger policy. He is basically an out of control puppet and his handlers spend half the time running around trying to coral him in or clean up his messes. I hope they are all having a terrible stressful time doing it and I'm sorry that the world is along for the ride. Fuck Joe and the evil people that did this to US. The only consolation is that the Russians probably have a very hard time trying to predict what the USA will do since it's being run by a secret committee of bi-polar imbeciles. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 3:37:54 PM EDT
[#46]
" This is how they treat wounded Kadyrovites in the LPR - FUCK "
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Posted: 6/17/2022 3:40:24 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: It’s been ongoing for a long time. The Air National Guard was interacting with Ukraine before 9/11 but this program took on a new focus post Crimea. We have ARF members who were there in 2018 with the Tennessee ARNG if I recall. Honestly I’ve been expecting 10th SFG and one of the SFAB units to assist Ukraine in Poland and Romania. In my opinion the Ukrainians are demonstrating proficiencies obtained from working with the ARNG annually. Specifically tactical initiative, thinking outside of the box, redundancies etc. they’re not doing tre old Soviet model crap. Russia is reverting to tried and true to try and compensate for their failures. Which leads us right back to NATO leadership providing timely, continuous and relevant support. When Ukraine is getting nibbled as it’s saying we need ammo, we’ll, where the fuck is that ammo? You don’t want to send fighters? Okay, where’s the fucking ammo? You can’t leave people hanging. If Ukraine man’s their reserves, NATO trains & equips, then Kiev doesn’t have to worry about what is available to lead. Right now the inconsistencies are playing out on the battlefield and notice I have zero posts or threads besmirching UA over tactical setbacks. Given the situation compared to the Iraqi vs Isis, Kabul vs the Taliban, etc. the Ukrainians have demonstrated their resolve and ability to take training and equipment and succeed. The strategic failures all fall on European lack of true leadership and Biden.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2-Bg6POnbIARNG also has an SFAB besides active duty  Failed To Load Title |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 3:41:05 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Russian drone watching Ukrainian soldiers rescue their wounded and dead while under accurate fire. Drone zooms in at :24 seconds, guys drag wounded to safety and go back out to get more while under fire. This may have been recorded in March, no foliage. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vekxyw/ukrainians_rescue_woundeddead_under_a_heavy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb Fitting that LPR chose to put Drowning Pool in that video saying “I don’t care about anyone but me” while watching dudes perform MoH level heroism to save their wounded. Hope they made it. |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 3:42:16 PM EDT
[Last Edit: SoCalExile]
[#49]
The captured Ukrainian medic with the GoPro that recorded the video, released a few weeks ago, of the beginning of the war has been released in a prisoner exchange:
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1537881110192893953  |
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Posted: 6/17/2022 3:48:07 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: It’s been ongoing for a long time. The Air National Guard was interacting with Ukraine before 9/11 but this program took on a new focus post Crimea. We have ARF members who were there in 2018 with the Tennessee ARNG if I recall. Honestly I’ve been expecting 10th SFG and one of the SFAB units to assist Ukraine in Poland and Romania. In my opinion the Ukrainians are demonstrating proficiencies obtained from working with the ARNG annually. Specifically tactical initiative, thinking outside of the box, redundancies etc. they’re not doing tre old Soviet model crap. Russia is reverting to tried and true to try and compensate for their failures. Which leads us right back to NATO leadership providing timely, continuous and relevant support. When Ukraine is getting nibbled as it’s saying we need ammo, we’ll, where the fuck is that ammo? You don’t want to send fighters? Okay, where’s the fucking ammo? You can’t leave people hanging. If Ukraine man’s their reserves, NATO trains & equips, then Kiev doesn’t have to worry about what is available to lead. Right now the inconsistencies are playing out on the battlefield and notice I have zero posts or threads besmirching UA over tactical setbacks. Given the situation compared to the Iraqi vs Isis, Kabul vs the Taliban, etc. the Ukrainians have demonstrated their resolve and ability to take training and equipment and succeed. The strategic failures all fall on European lack of true leadership and Biden. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2-Bg6POnbIhttps://www.fayobserver.com/story/opinion/2022/03/31/d-g-martin-u-s-special-forces-training-boosts-ukraine-fight-against-russian-invasion/7218540001/  Attached File Attached File |
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