You all want to see bad?  Just simply turn a mirror and take a look at what arfcom has become.  4,5, 6 years ago we all got a long and had fun.  This fun is nonexistent.  



People routinely make fun of the statement "it's the internet, it's serious business".  Well, behind every joke or sarcasm lies the truth.



Our actions and beliefs, whether we chose to admit it or not, have direct affects on those who read what we post, and in times of historic turmoil it shapes what we do and how we act in order to combat political opposition.



The 1911SFORVER's NRA sellout thread is prime example.  Many of us have reached the line in the sand and are willing to go no further, we are not willing to accept compromise no longer, and to do so yields to the evil for which it precipitates.

Indeed.

http://investmentwatchblog.com/just-a-quick-look-at-actual-unemployment-filing-numbers-they-were-up-40000-on-last-week-also-way-above-our-historical-numbers-except-last-year/

The 'unemployment numbers' always seemed like a bogus index anyway, it should be the number of poeple working that it tracked - that would eliminate them hiding people who are no longer filing for unemployment.

Wonder if that stat is posted anywhere?

Fuck me. I go to the cape to show a couple of apartments,the mother fuckers who want to rent don't show,I come back and the last thread is locked??? I'm having a great week....



Right now the problem is finding and keeping renters. I would say an honest rent for that place would be in the neighborhood of 650-700 month. There are a lot of places ASKING 750-1K,but they can't get or keep tennants.

200/mo taxes(non-owner occupied)
75-100/mo insurance
75/mo maitenance

Benefit of the doubt...300/mo in expenses
If you keep it rented at 650 that is roughly 9.5%.
I wouldn't touch it for that. That will be even less if you don't
do all the work(we do).





You couldn't pay me to flip right now. I have a list of ~30 homes bought cheap,really cheap,fixed up and are currently
stuck not selling. It will be interesting to see what kind of prices they bring when the sales do occur.
Heck,I have recognized a bunch of homes that had contracts written for the tax credit,the financing fell through
and they are back on the MLS.

I looked at a 1 acre lot here in town in Feb09. It just didn't seem like a decent deal. I passed. They wanted 16.5K.
This lot had been foreclosed by a bank to the tune of 85K. Someone sees this and says...shit,I can pick it up and flip
this bastard and make a buck. It dropped off the MLS last week at an ask of 5K. Nothing like losing 1K a month over the course
of a year. The best part is I don't think it sold. So now you tied up 16.5K lost 11.5K so far of your money and
you have a decent tax bill every year. You can't homestead it because it is vacant land so you pay the higher tax rates.

This is why RE busts takes years. It is just a long slow grind down. Everyone is loathe to admit the properties just
aren't worth what they want. Most can't bring money to closing to get out,so it ends up short sale/foreclosed.
Nationwide right now foreclosures are running at 560ish days from first default until the bank gets the home back.
Notice I didn't say...the bank sold the home. Just the bank now has the right to sell it.  Add in selling times and there
is no reason a home that defaulted the first of June 2010 wouldn't get sold until the middle of 2012.


Chris

+1

And my apologies in advance if I ignore a legitmate question/comment mistakenly believing it is a troll.  

I don't mean to offend to anyone...

In on 2!!

More anecdotal info:

Buddy of mine works for BE Aerospace.  He told me that the big-wigs are selling their stock due to a major world event that will be occuring in August.  Something about the issue with North and South Korea coming to a head.

Oh, and since I forgot to with my last post, this is a tag.

In on my first YASBY thread.

I'm in a miserable mood so why not feed the urge?

Honestly, the real "official" thread isn't found on arfcom.  It's here: http://the.netalarms.us/?p=4114#comments

Present and accounted for!



Best Fathers' Day Wishes to all As Appropriate, whether one may be:

*Dad

*Uncle

*Big Brother

*Smart Guy Down the Street

*Teacher or Scout Leader

and even those *Gals Who Pass on Traditional Skills in Lieu of a Male

Today we honor those men who went before us, and we reflect upon what is required of us in their shadow.

As much as I grieve to have lost my Dad after a fine long life, I am pleased that he did not live to see these dies irae through which we labor today.

Final message from CT to the ARFCOM YASBYBIC participants:


“I’m sorry if my actions caused the destruction of the thread. I had no idea that my comments would be handled that way. Best of luck to everyone (including the moderators) and I’ll see you on the other side…”

Just checking in.  Maybe I'll swing over to Omaha and post from John Galt Boulevard. . . . . .



. . . . 'No, he thought, not dread, there's nothing to fear: just an immense, diffused apprehension, with no source of object.' (snip from the original A.R.'s masterpiece of growing relevance.)
 While I'm out cruising, I'll take the time to stop and smell the roses, to appreciate the flora and fauna, keeping a lookout for any lone coniferous kedros along the way.

I think this migration is going to crush certain states.  If a state no longer has a tax base it does not matter how high you rise tax rates.  If this trend continues CA and other states will need a big ass bailout or they have to revise their gravy trains.



The migration could make for an "interesting" election.  It seems that solid fiscally conservative areas of the country are better off than the rest and drawing in refugees from everyone else.  Hopefully it is people fed up with their socialists home states and have gone on to more lucrative states to make their living.





 

This is precisely how Colorado became a "purple" state.  In the 90s Californians started moving in, with their politics.  Of course everyone enjoyed the new money coming in, and some jobs along with it.  Property values soared as did traffic and crime along with cost of living.  Things have leveled off now but we are just starting to fight the battles that conservative Californians lost long ago...

I wish when people flee a specific situation they would take a moment to consider how they could keep that happening in their new home!

He didn't cause it. There was no justification for what happened or how it happened... at all.

Perfect storm' hammers trade unions and
contractors alike











A member of Sheet Metal Workers Local 36, heating and cooling contractor
Mike Curran still considers himself a union man through and through.





That speaks volumes, considering that Curran's relationship with the
labor organization now consists of letters demanding the payment of
delinquent dues, lawsuits from the union naming him a defendant and
summons to appear in St. Louis federal court.





Curran is far from alone.





Since the onset of the recession, dozens of St. Louis area contractors
have also been hauled into court as local construction trade unions —
plumbers, carpenters, electricians and more — seek unpaid dues for
workers' pension, welfare, health and vacation funds.








What's changed is a collision between a 2008 federal law governing union
pensions and the beginning of the Great Recession, which experts say
has increased the number of restitution settlements tradesmen have
negotiated with union officials.





"Percentage-wise it's a little bit worse — we're having a heck of a time
collecting our money," said David Zimmerman, the business manager and
president of Local 36.





It was not unusual — even before the economy tanked — for
union-affiliated firms to fall behind on payments to employee benefit
funds.





In fact, a review of the U.S. District Court for Eastern Missouri docket
prior to the collapse of the economy shows hundreds of claims filed by
labor groups seeking restitution from contractors.





But labor leaders and construction business owners concur: Though the
exact number of court-ordered judgments isn't available, they've seen
more complaints filed against contractors (and more bankruptcies among
contractors) during the recession.





"The contractors didn't understand the ramifications when they signed
the contract and the unions didn't understand the impact of the Pension
Protection Act," said Jim Kistler, the president and CEO of the
Associated Builders and Contractors "Heart of America" chapter in Kansas
City. "You put these two things together with the recession and you
have a perfect storm hitting both sides."


The Pension Protection Act obligates fund administrators to act legally
on behalf of the beneficiaries, the workers, if the account balance dips
below 80 percent of the payout owed retirees.





"We have to do everything we can to collect the funds. It's our
fiduciary responsibility for our members," explained George "Butch"
Welsch, the owner of Welsch Heating and Cooling and a member of the
joint contractor-union committee that oversees the Local 36 benefit
plans.





For Curran, who says he hasn't drawn a paycheck in two years, the union
benefit fund's pursuit of his assets has pushed him to the brink of
bankruptcy.





"I'm done," he said. "They've got me where they want me, they can take
their pound of flesh from me."





To stave off legal action, Zimmerman says, Local 36 does whatever it can
to work out mutual payment agreements with contractors in arrears.  





"But once they quit returning phone calls, we just have to do what we
have to do," he said. "The bottom line is we're not a bank."    





To the president of St. Louis chapter of the Associated General
Contractors, Curran and Local 36 alike are casualties of an economy that
has left no sector of the construction industry unscathed.  





"There are no good guys and no bad guys," said Leonard Toenjes.
"Everybody is just doing what they have to do."





In the case of the contractors, survival means staying afloat in a local
sector that has seen business fall off by 31 percent in 2008-09 and
another 30 percent over the first three months of this year, according
to an Associated General Contractors survey.  





Projects that once drew interest from five contractors are now
attracting 20 or more bids, said Toenjes.





Moreover, banks that once bailed out contractors with short-term loans
have curtailed credit in response to the wide-ranging financial crisis.





As a result, contractors have been forced to choose between meeting
payroll, compensating suppliers or making good on their obligations to
union benefit plans.





In most cases, it's the benefit fund that goes wanting, say Toenjes and
others. And that's where the economic conditions visited upon the
construction industry runs head-on into the Pension Protection Act.    





As the title implies, the legislation was passed with the best of
intentions, said St. Louis University accounting professor John McGowan,
a nationally recognized authority on the legislation.





But for companies and labor organizations struggling to maintain the 80
percent level, the timing of the 2006 act couldn't have been worse.





Within 26 months, the stock market collapsed, gutting private and public
retirement accounts along with the investments of millions of other
Americans. In 2008 alone, the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation —
the government agency that insures retirement plans — reported losses in
its portfolio totaling $4.8 billion, according to a report McGowan
prepared for the Associated Builders and Contractors.





Entering 2008, the pension account administered by the Carpenters
District Council of Greater St. Louis and Vicinity had the capacity to
meet 98 percent of its potential obligations.





By the end of the year, the balance stood at 82 percent. Council
officials say the percentage of funding has remained at or near that
level ever since.





Zimmerman said the fund controlled by Local 36 of the Sheet Metal
Workers at one point dipped to 71 percent but is now above 80 percent.





Union officials call federal court a final, reluctant stop in the
process to recoup unpaid dues from contractors.





In general, labor groups turn the matter over to attorneys after a
contractor fails to respond to delinquency notices sent at 30 and 60
days.





With unemployment among trade workers believed to be as high as 40
percent, labor leaders say they are not unsympathetic to the plight of
the contractors.





"If we see if something is not collectible, we quit chasing them," said
Terry Nelson, executive secretary-treasurer of the Carpenters' Council.





That has not been Mike Curran's experience with Local 36 of the Sheet
Metal Workers Union.





Curran came to appreciate the benefits of union membership while
employed as a heating and air-conditioning worker and sheet metal worker
at the outset of his career. It seemed only natural for Curran to sign a
pact with Local 36 on behalf of his own employees when he went into
business for himself in 1992.





Curran says he erred by not hiring a lawyer to review the contract terms
18 years ago. The oversight came back to haunt him in 2006. When his
business slowed to a crawl, Curran opted not to renew the agreement with
Local 36.





He is not the first signatory contractor to suffer the consequence of
ignoring the fine contractual print.





"Unlike a traditional contract that expires when it's over, a collective
bargaining relationship continues until you get out of the contract,"
said Terry Morgan, an attorney with the National Labor Relations Board.





The legal term for obtaining a divorce from a labor agreement is
"withdrawal liability." The price: between $100,000 and $200,000,
including attorney fees.



The rest here: http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/business/stories.nsf/story/4C43E65E50B909E88625774700084E7F?OpenDocument

Homes sales wane after tax credit

The housing market began to retrench in May after a government incentive ended, leaving manufacturing at the head of the U.S. recovery, economists said reports this week will show.

Sales of new homes fell 19 percent to a 410,000 annual pace last month, according to the median estimate of 57 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before a Commerce Department report June 23. Orders for durable goods may show gains in business investment and overseas sales boosted demand for capital equipment like computers and machinery.

“We got the run-up in housing activity and there’ll be a pretty big payback now that the tax credit has expired,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. “The strongest sector of the economy right now is manufacturing.”

Federal Reserve policy makers meeting this week are projected to commit to keeping interest rates near zero in coming months to help wean the world’s largest economy off government stimulus. The hazard posed by the European debt crisis, joblessness and a lack of inflation add to the reasons why central bankers will focus on sustaining the economic rebound.

Do you blame Real Estate Agents, Appraisers and local .gov (wanting more property tax income) for this whole debacle?

OK, checking in on the new thread... Feels weird...

Obviously, lots of stuff going on that is meaningful, particularly the warships/Suez report.  Combined with everything else that has been documented in YASBYBIC 1-5, one cannot help but feel some tension.

ETA:  Something to give people just a little smile:

The reason I was super busy this weekend was that my younger son was graduating high school.  My home (and sanity) was fully infested with every relative within a 3 hour drive.
My son has been one of the very fortunate individuals to qualify for, attend, and graduate from Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology.   It is considered the premier public high school in the country.
Admission to the school is based on grades, SAT or ACT test scores, and teacher recommendations.  It is very difficult to gain admittance.  Those who do gain admittance have to work extraordinarily hard during their HS years in order to make it to graduation.  So, it's a pretty big deal (IMO, at least).  

The demographics of admitted students is noteworthy.  For the Class of 2010, a little over 50% of the students were Asian (Korean, Chinese, Filipino, Vietnamese, or sub-continent), with another significant (but unknown to me) percentage of "wasians"... half/half.  Almost all of them are either 1st generations themselves, or have parents who were born elsewhere and immigrated (legally!).  

At the beginning of the ceremony, the school's chorus sang a beautiful rendition of the national anthem.  I looked around the arena and realized that while some of the "regular" citizens, while standing, didn't cover their heart with their hand, but all (that I could see) of those who had chosen to make this country their own were standing proudly, solemnly, and with their hand over their heart.  
It was just the first time that evening that the air was very dusty in my little corner of the world.

Thanks for listening to a proud dad's prattle.  


BTW, to the other Arfcommer who was there, sorry we couldn't connect - what a mass of people!  See you at the range soon, I hope.

Go ahead and be proud of your son, wmounts; I, for one, am proud with you.  Such daughters and sons as yours are the hope of our nation.

Some how I missed the other 5 parts...

Nope. Appraisers just get a small bit of blame.

Pay option arms(negative amortization)
80/20 loans(100% financing with 2 loans).
3% down loans.
5% down loans.
No doc loans.
People stretching themselves to the limit buying the largest home the could.
The belief that RE only goes up.
HELOC's,2nd's and cash out refis to any fucker that could fog a mirror. Why?
Because they can sell because RE only goes up.

A major portion of this bubble could have been avoided by 20% down,full documentation loans.
Add in the rating agencies,securitization a bit of fraud and you have the makings of a monster bubble.

FYI,100% financing basically is unlimited leverage. The day you move in you are upside down ~10%...


Chris

Congrats on the Son.

Chris

Awesome!!

Congrats to both of you - him for achieving, and you for providing the foundation for his life choices so far.

In again for daily lurking of extremely usefull info. In fact I splurged for one of those new fangled smart phones just to be able to get the info on the go.

I am glad to see alot of the regulars still in here and hope a couple come back........

In, with some reservations.

Thanks, all!

The California migration is actually all the illegal aliens coming to your neighborhood.  Enjoy them!

 

Last post on page 1 warns about $8-$9 a gallon gasoline.

I'm sure it will be $6-8 soon because of the Gulf Oil disaster and the moratorium on off shore drilling.

Expect food prices to follow as the cost of trucking in food will increase (remember when gas reached $4.55 a gallon a couple of years ago?).   Thus, we're all going to see our standard of living decline as things double or triple in price because of gas prices.  Spam was only eighty-nine cents a can before the gas prices jumped.  I walked into Walgreens for coughdrops last week and it was $2.99.  Jolly Ranchers were .79 cents a 7 ounce bag.  Now it's $2.49.  That's just a couple of prices.  Consider things like food and how it will increase.  Then consider things like toilet paper, tobacco and how they will increase.

A lot of folks won't be able to drive to work anymore and if there's public transit, expect it to be packed.

I got an IM about this (thank you) as well as my reminder that I am "short" on my dues.

I don't think I'm going to re-up my membership this year. If a good guy like Cedar Tree gets locked while a noted rabble rouser remains untouched... I don't think I am going to contribute any longer.

I have not seen one valid reason why CT should be locked.

Carry on - I look forward to this next iteration of this excellent series of threads.

Walmart?

Back in. We'll see for how long. Don't feed the trolls.

...still here, still vigilant...still difficult to be cautiously optimistic.

I still believe it's coming, even if it's the death of a thousand cuts.

Be Well.

Hmmmm.....

This sounds like a snopes.



Aerospace goes up during conflicts not down.





 

Too bad.....CT posted interesting articles....I was kinda absent for Part 5's meltdown...  

Holy cow looks like its time to leave socal and head for Montana

You got that right brother....

Hmm, that is ironic about the start dates.



And you're exactly right about the tips.



 

Hmm. I did some grocery shopping yesterday & saw nothing but fully stocked shelves.



I guess it's like I've heard others say, the effects of this economy are different everywhere.



 

Can't get emotional over this site, keep it as a grain of salt



Come back CT!



 

Well said.



I've been thinking about my Dad all day today. He passed away back in 2003 & will always miss him.




But I'm glad he doesn't have to live through this bullshit.



 

Just to establish anew in this new thread, I am your Voice Crying in the Wilderness:

All Eyes on the Gulf.  Right-freaking Now!

This is the black swan.  Force Majeur.  

I am not going to post endless Oil Disaster links.  Either you're interested enough to do your own research, or you're not.

Personally, I have come to view politics and markets as mere bread and circuses compared to what is coming.

Two words:  Methane Clathrates.  Ignore at your peril.  Educate yourselves.

You have got to be shitting me.... CT?

Well I'm one of few that think S13 is a valuable part of this discussion. He adds balance and a different POV for us doom & gloomers. Hopefully CT will be back. He was the source  of alot of great informative articles. Not sure how he found time to dig all that stuff up

Locked for three days.

The problem is, it was push Cedartree did not need. He said he isn't coming back, as well as few others.

Ok, did my research. What have you heard and do you have a link or two?