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Posted: 7/16/2008 9:18:43 AM EDT

[#1]

Quoted:
Another technical indicator was the formation of a double top, both tops were soundly rejected. If this reversal does not hold, and turns out to be a correction, we can anticipate a rapid jump up again to new highs. If it holds, the mid $140's may go down in the books, only to be brought up the next time this happens.

Japanese Candlestick charting FTW.....usually

!

Posted: 7/16/2008 9:21:28 AM EDT

[#2]

Quoted:
finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:OIL

If that doesnt look like a break I dont know what does.

Can you say SELL!!!

I sure hope you anti-speculators got in a good short sell order.

Posted: 7/16/2008 10:07:33 AM EDT

[#3]

Quoted:
That happens here in Indiana

Oil goes up, THAT DAY gas prices raise.

Oil goes down $5-10 a barrel, takes WEEKS for the consumer to see the gas lower at the pump, they are fucking us.

Just do a little reading about prices and how they react to rise in raw materials.

In short they rise according to reorder costs but are sticky on the way down due to current inventory cost and slow competitor undercuting.

It sucks but that is the way the market works. Quick jumps in price but a slow stairstep down. If you owned a business you would do the exact same thing.

Posted: 7/16/2008 10:10:13 AM EDT

[#4]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Do you think that as soon as we get out butts in gear and start making our own, that the middle east will suddenly get a suplus of oil and flood the market with cheap oil? In order to make domestic production less appealing?

happened in the early 80's.

Culminating in the market collapse of 1987, WATCH OUT.

Do you see another October 1987 on the horizon....or even worse? I was 14 when that happened and remember it quite well.

Yes. So does T. Boone Pickens. Which is why he is going to natural gas and wind.

Did anyone even get hurt back then, other than the stupids that sold at the bottom (without getting back in) and bought at the peak? My Dad used the event to get a HUGE tax write off and it took less than 3 years to go above the 1987 level.

Posted: 7/16/2008 10:17:37 AM EDT

[#5]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Another technical indicator was the formation of a double top, both tops were soundly rejected. If this reversal does not hold, and turns out to be a correction, we can anticipate a rapid jump up again to new highs. If it holds, the mid $140's may go down in the books, only to be brought up the next time this happens.

Japanese Candlestick charting FTW.....usually

!

I am not the guy who will trumpet the glories of technical analysis. I will trumpet the preponderance of evidence. Right now their are a lot of technical AND fundamental indicators indicating we are close to "peak oil PRICES" at the moment. Looking at technicals while ignoring fundamentals is a recipe for failure.

Then their is the fact that the market is usually rash in the short term. Especially with a hot commodity like oil. While all signs may point down at the moment, I think we will be seeing some hard ups and downs before it really sets into a bear market. I will not try and call the tops, nor insist 100% that we are headed down. Just stating that the evidence is weighted towards prices not heading much higher and eventually turning lower. When that will be exactly is anyones guess.

Posted: 7/16/2008 10:18:07 AM EDT

[#6]

Quoted:

Quoted:
They already covered the cost by raising their price immediately.

Let's say oil goes up $11 in one day, like it did several weeks ago. Gas went up 20 or 30 cents in some places. It dropped back down to pre spike levels shortly after, yet gas remained up. Seems pretty cut and dry to me.

You're observations are correct, but you're assigning the wrong cause. It's actually pretty simple, and you'll go "Oh!" after it's explained.

To illustrate why prices come down slower than they go up, consider everybody's favorite analogy, the lemonade stand. Also, let us assume that the owner wishes to average 10% profit for the month, and to do that, it's understood that the profit each day will be 10%.

-=DAY 1=-
You own a lemonade stand and you sell 10 gallons a day. Your lemons, sugar and water cost you $1.00 a gallon. You wish to make a reasonable 10% profit, so you price your lemonade at $1.10. You sell all 10 gallons. You have made $11 in gross sales for the day. Lemon, sugar and water prices have remained the same, so you order another 10 gallons for tomorrow (cost: $10), leaving you with $1 in profit (10%).

-=DAY 2=-
You have 10 gallons of lemonade, and you paid $10 for it. You're planning on selling it for $1.10 a gallon, just like yesterday. However, just as the day begins, you learn that sugar prices have jumped dramatically. When you go to order lemonade tonight, it's going to cost you $1.10. That's what you're selling your lemonade for right now, at retail! If you sell all 10 gallons at $1.10 (because you only paid $1.00, after all) then you will have 0 profit for the day when you order lemonade for tomorrow. Again, you wish to make a 10% profit, so you instead decide to raise the price to $1.21.

"Why so high?!!", your customers ask. Well, $1.10 (tonight's purchase price) + 10% (a reasonable profit) = $1.21. Surely, they wouldn't begrudge you an honest 10% profit (then again...). You explain this to them, and they go "Oh, that makes sense". Great!

So today, you've sold all 10 gallons. Your gross sales for the day are $1.21 x 10 = $12.10. You order up your expensive lemonade again from the supplier for $1.10 * 10 = $11, leaving you with $1.10 profit for the day (10%).

-=DAY 3=-
You have 10 gallons of $1.10 (to you) lemonade to sell. Just as the day begins, you contact your supplier about tonight's order, and he's unsure. He thinks it might come down, but it might also remain the same.

You decide to sell your lemonade for yesterday's price of $1.21. If the price goes down, you'll make more than 10% today, but if it remains constant, you'll make 10%.

Yesterday, the price increase afforded you a reasonable 10% profit for the day. That was yesterday. Today, you wish to do the same, and feel that a 10% profit is reasonable. You are sitting on 10 gallons of $1.10 lemonade right now, and to make a guaranteed 10%, you must sell it for $1.21 a gallon. Tonight, you may be ordering it cheaper (yay!), and may be able to drop the price tomorrow.

So today, you sell all 10 gallons for $1.21 x 10 = $12.10 (gross). You order up another 10 gallons of lemonade for 10 x $1.00 = $10. It turns out, the price dropped. You have made $2.10 (net) today. That's a touch over 19% profit, but there was a risk of prices not coming down as expected. Now that that's over (and they really did come down)...

-=DAY 4=-
Everything is still looking fine as far as future prices are concerned. You made a bunch of money yesterday (risk), and you can afford to sell lemonade much cheaper today - even at a loss for the day. You sell 10 x $0.99 = $9.90 worth of lemonade. You order up another 10 gallons of lemonade for $10, leaving you with a $0.10 loss for the day.

-=Costs=-
Day 1 = $10
Day 2 = $11
Day 3 = $10
Day 4 = $10
Total: $41

=-Gross Sales=-
Day 1 = $11
Day 2 = $12.10
Day 3 = $12.10
Day 4 = $$9.90
Total: $45.10

$41 (costs) + 10% (profit) = $45.10. Well, look at that. A reasonable 10% profit for the month, and you were able to manage risk.

That's why they sometimes come down slower. There are other reasons too, but "stickin' it to us" isn't the only answer.

Gasoline pricing is MUCH more complex, obviously. The one thing that I think folks can learn from this, is that it's not collusion. Remember, that every business is competing with every other business for your money. If every gas station in 3 counties doesn't drop their price immediately, then it's one of a few things:

1. They are colluding with each other (an interesting feat of collaboration and agreement among hundreds of stations, undetected on short notice).
2. The price came down today, but it's going to skyrocket later, negating what would have otherwise been a low price today.
3. The price might stay down, or it might not, and some are hedging just in case.

Anyway, my little example assumes the lemonade stand owner is managing risk. I could run another scenario where the price drops tomorrow, but it's going to go up 30% in a week, and he needs to plan for it. There are all sorts of things that happen, but "price gouging" isn't one of them, unless one provides specific evidence of abnormally high profits as a percentage *and* (when everybody's doing it), specific evidence of collusion. Absent those things, it's just the market doing it's thing.

Ignorance of the specific cause of a price increase is not in itself evidence of collusion, or profiteering, or price gouging, or predatory pricing or (ugly phrase of the day).

Anyway, I hope somebody finds all that useful. Note that understanding how prices are determined doesn't mean you have to like them. Personally, I think gas prices suck ass, how 'bout you?

So did the train leaving station A at 3:42pm going 73mph ever meet up with the bus leaving station B at 4:12am going 57 mph with enough time left to spare to have lunch with Mary who had 2 sammiches, 3 apples and a half gallon of water after giving 1 sammich, an orange an 6 apples to Tom?

So guys, how do I turn ground beef into something I can conviently cook and eat?

Posted: 7/17/2008 7:11:26 AM EDT

[#7]

How are we doing today?

Posted: 7/17/2008 7:12:54 AM EDT

[#8]

Looks like its up $1.39 so far today.

Posted: 7/17/2008 7:13:02 AM EDT

[#9]

Quoted:

Quoted:
That happens here in Indiana

Oil goes up, THAT DAY gas prices raise.

Oil goes down $5-10 a barrel, takes WEEKS for the consumer to see the gas lower at the pump, they are fucking us.

Just do a little reading about prices and how they react to rise in raw materials.

In short they rise according to reorder costs but are sticky on the way down due to current inventory cost and slow competitor undercuting.

It sucks but that is the way the market works. Quick jumps in price but a slow stairstep down. If you owned a business you would do the exact same thing.

They have no compunctions about RAISING retail prices when the spot price rises, not what they paid wholesale for their current inventory. The reverse is true when the spot price falls.

Posted: 7/17/2008 7:15:57 AM EDT

[#10]

What we need now is for Drudge to put up the siren and big headline "Oil bubble burting ... investers loosing billions" without the corresponding link.

It should take and hour and a half for the market to start crashing.

Posted: 7/17/2008 7:16:00 AM EDT

[#11]

Quoted:
Looks like its up $1.39 so far today.

Crap.

Posted: 7/17/2008 7:22:11 AM EDT

[#12]

What the hell is THIS that was just e-mailed to me?

Sounds like China is the most responsible country in the world.

Posted: 7/17/2008 7:31:29 AM EDT

[#13]

Quoted:

Quoted:
I expect more missile test firing coming out of Iran shortly, along with an incendiary statement by Ahmadinejad.

They ran out of fuel and oxidizer. UDMH and IRFNA are hard to make...

How about a hurricane or refinery fire/broken pipe then?

Posted: 7/17/2008 7:35:24 AM EDT

[#14]

Quoted:
What we need now is for Drudge to put up the siren and big headline "Oil bubble burting ... investers loosing billions" without the corresponding link.

It should take and hour and a half for the market to start crashing.

And if it worked (investors would have to respect Drudge as a reliable source of information) it would kill the price of futures contracts...briefly. Once it becomes clear that the fundamentals haven't changed, the price will climb right back up. The spot price wouldn't change much at all.

Everybody wants to believe that investors are responsible for high prices (it sounds nice), but it's just not true. This is one of those things where people (not you, but certain segments of the media) repeat a lie so much that is becomes truth. One of the amusing things about each end every "speculators causing bubble" story about crude prices, is that no attempt is ever made to substantiate this claim. They just say "it is so", and offer no evidence for it. They'll cite the conclusions of analysts, market insiders, etc, but they make no attempt to critically examine any of it.

Lord knows I've tried...

Posted: 7/17/2008 7:48:36 AM EDT

[#15]

Here is how it always works on oil...

They periodically gouge the heck out of us up to the point that we start to get serious about 1. Conservation, fuel efficient cars etc 2. Looking for our own oil and 3. Alternative energy sources... because if we did those things, they would be out of the gouging business.

We are just about at the point where we are serious about those 3 things again, so magically the price will drop soon.

Posted: 7/17/2008 7:54:56 AM EDT

[#16]

Quoted:
Here is how it always works on oil...

They periodically gouge the heck out of us up to the point that we start to get serious about 1. Conservation, fuel efficient cars etc 2. Looking for our own oil and 3. Alternative energy sources... because if we did those things, they would be out of the gouging business.

We are just about at the point where we are serious about those 3 things again, so magically the price will drop soon.

You act as if "they" are capable of pulling strings, and it's just not true. I know you guys wish it was, and I know it's the simple answer, but wishing it doesn't make it true.

And yes, if we reduce demand through fuel efficiency, and increase supply though increased domestic production...price will indeed fall, no string pulling required.

Posted: 7/17/2008 8:04:58 AM EDT

[#17]

Quoted:
What the hell is THIS that was just e-mailed to me?

Sounds like China is the most responsible country in the world.

Funny, that. While free plastic bags may be bad (IKEA is charging $0.05/bag), making China sound like an environmental haven is ridiculous. Communist countries have ALWAYS been the worst polluters on the planet. Capitalism is a wonderful thing- if the consumers want companies to be environmentally responsible, then those companies will have to become good stewards of the environment. Tell me where they do more for the environment than in capitalist countries?

Not to mention the fact that the Chinese government is shutting down polluting factories in cities with Olympic venues so as to let the athletes actually breathe air that they can't see. It's ridiculous what's going on in that country.

Posted: 7/17/2008 12:12:59 PM EDT

[#18]

$129.60

Pow.

Posted: 7/17/2008 12:14:44 PM EDT

[#19]

Quoted:
$129.60

Pow.

Posted: 7/17/2008 12:31:55 PM EDT

[#20]

Quoted:
$129.60

Pow.

When it gets to $39.60, I'll be a happy man.

Posted: 7/17/2008 1:07:16 PM EDT

[#21]

Quoted:

Quoted:
$129.60

Pow.

When it gets to $39.60, I'll be a happy man.

Then Exxon-Mobil can buy Shell-Texaco/Chevron?

Posted: 7/17/2008 1:15:04 PM EDT

[#22]

Quoted:

Quoted:
$129.60

Pow.

When it gets to $39.60, I'll be a happy man.

Then Exxon-Mobil can buy Shell-Texaco/Chevron?

\
BPA v EMSTC
Caged death match

of course, they all pale next to ARAMCO, which nobody knows.

Posted: 7/17/2008 1:21:51 PM EDT

[#23]

Quoted:

Quoted:
$129.60

Pow.

When it gets to $39.60, I'll be a happy man.

Then Exxon-Mobil can buy Shell-Texaco/Chevron?

I want to pay less for gas.

I'm a selfish bastard.

Posted: 7/17/2008 1:25:21 PM EDT

[#24]

I wonder how many hedge fund managers are looking in their gun safes and thinking "that shotgun muzzle looks mighty tasty."

Posted: 7/17/2008 1:26:11 PM EDT

[#25]

Quoted:

Quoted:
$129.60

Pow.

When it gets to $39.60, I'll be a happy man.

Then Exxon-Mobil can buy Shell-Texaco/Chevron?

I want to pay less for gas.

I'm a selfish bastard.

You did in 1998. The lack of profitability led to mergers. These larger corporations then had less motive/ability to increase production when the market opened up, leading to even higher prices.

It is the independent producers who increase production in the times of shortage.

Posted: 7/17/2008 1:35:41 PM EDT

[#26]

Gas prices have remained the same in the St. Louis area, but out here in the country prices have actually fallen. I just paid $3.72 for premium unleaded today. Kind of sad that thats a good deal though.

Posted: 7/17/2008 1:39:47 PM EDT

[#27]

Quoted:

Quoted:
$129.60

Pow.

When it gets to $39.60, I'll be a happy man.

Then Exxon-Mobil can buy Shell-Texaco/Chevron?

I want to pay less for gas.

I'm a selfish bastard.

You did in 1998. The lack of profitability led to mergers. These larger corporations then had less motive/ability to increase production when the market opened up, leading to even higher prices.

It is the independent producers who increase production in the times of shortage.

Blah blah blah blah.

Look, I want cheap gas not fancy talk.

BTW, what's this shortage you speak of?

Didn't OPEC tell us there is no shortage?

Also, I do not have the ability to fill my tank in 1998 now that its 2008.

Posted: 7/17/2008 1:45:02 PM EDT

[#28]

To BuckeyRifleman;

Go Bucks!!! Can't wait till the season starts!!

Posted: 7/17/2008 1:52:57 PM EDT

[#29]

Quoted:

Quoted:
$129.60

Pow.

When it gets to $39.60, I'll be a happy man.

Then Exxon-Mobil can buy Shell-Texaco/Chevron?

I want to pay less for gas.

I'm a selfish bastard.

You did in 1998. The lack of profitability led to mergers. These larger corporations then had less motive/ability to increase production when the market opened up, leading to even higher prices.

It is the independent producers who increase production in the times of shortage.

Blah blah blah blah.

Look, I want cheap gas not fancy talk.

BTW, what's this shortage you speak of?

Didn't OPEC tell us there is no shortage?

Also, I do not have the ability to fill my tank in 1998 now that its 2008.

No, you want STABLE gas prices. There was a PERCEIVED SHORTAGE in that FUTURE DEMAND was high but FUTURE PRODUCTION wasn't.

And OPEC? It lacks ultimate production control. Every single member that can pump in excess of their quota is. Venezula probably not but that is not surprising.

Posted: 7/17/2008 1:59:13 PM EDT

[#30]

Quoted:
Where is Dave A?

Watching it all...

I will quite well enjoy seeing oil drop like a rock, while the value of the does whatever, and interest rates do not change.... Further invalidating the 'High price of oil is caused by dollar inflation' crap...

That said, my personal interest, is in a few shares of FRE, under the heading of 'It's only $200'....

I doubt they are going to stay in the Sub-$10 range much longer...

(Edit: This is *not* investing advice... What I am doing here, with Freddie Mac, is best called 'legal gambling'....)

Posted: 7/17/2008 2:09:44 PM EDT

[#31]

My guess for tomorrow??? Oil down $6+ a barrel.

It was $129.29 a barrel today at closing.

POP!

Posted: 7/17/2008 2:09:53 PM EDT

[#32]

I want stable cheap gas, not just stable gas.

Quoted:

No, you want STABLE gas prices. .

Posted: 7/17/2008 2:13:29 PM EDT

[#33]

Quoted:
I want stable cheap gas, not just stable gas.

Quoted:

No, you want STABLE gas prices. .

How long?

It has NEVER been stable on the 10 year basis.

Posted: 7/17/2008 2:16:40 PM EDT

[#34]

Quoted:
I want stable cheap gas, not just stable gas.

Quoted:

No, you want STABLE gas prices. .

Eat more beans and green veggies!!!.............

Posted: 7/17/2008 2:17:28 PM EDT

[#35]

Quoted:
My guess for tomorrow??? Oil down $6+ a barrel.

It was $129.29 a barrel today at closing.

POP!

Educated guess, or hopeful guess? Either way, I hope you're right!

Posted: 7/17/2008 2:27:23 PM EDT

[#36]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Supply isn't now nor has it been the big problem. The major issue at hand is being able to process the crude. We don't have enough refineries to process the current supply fast enough. Envirowhaco's and tree huggers block any attempt at building new refineries. We are left to buying refined crude oil at higher prices from other countries.

AGNTSA.

Explain to me, in small words, how refining affects the price of crude.

"Refined crude??!??!@#!" What the fuck is that?

Refining crude is the process of turning the black shit that gets pumped from the ground into the golden colored shit that gets pumped into your gas tank.

It doesn't necessarily effect the price of crude, but it does have a huge impact on the price we pay at the pump.

ETA: Even if we were to open ANWAR and the gulf of mexico to drilling tomorrow and lets say we were able to get an extra 10 million barrels of crude starting tomorrow, the price would still remain high at the pump because the demand for refined crude (gasoline) would still remain high.

Right now all of the refineries in the US are running at full capacity. Their ability to pump out gasoline is a fixed constant. All the supply in the world will not effect this constant because refineries can only refine so much per day. The only way to increase the supply of gasoline is to a) purchase refined crude from other sources at a premium (which we are doing) or b) build new refineries with which to refine more crude into gas.

Is that in simple enough terms for you?

I've seen a few naysayers on arfcom about this, but I belive it to be true and the right thing to begin building more.

The last one was built in 1972 (IIRC) could be wrong, but it was sometime in the seventies.

Sure, the refineries have expanded, but not enough to the point where they have the capacity to refine more oil than they are right now. They seem to be pretty much capped at 100% production all the time that they can be operational.

We need more refineries, and soon.... Demand will only increase, and Demand outpaced the supply capability of the current refineries we have a long time ago....

Posted: 7/17/2008 2:31:49 PM EDT

[#37]

Quoted:

Quoted:
My guess for tomorrow??? Oil down $6+ a barrel.

It was $129.29 a barrel today at closing.

POP!

Educated guess, or hopeful guess? Either way, I hope you're right!

NYMEX closed with losses for the last 3 days. We have not seen a 3 day drop of this magnitude in 25 years.

Posted: 7/17/2008 2:33:35 PM EDT

[#38]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Supply isn't now nor has it been the big problem. The major issue at hand is being able to process the crude. We don't have enough refineries to process the current supply fast enough. Envirowhaco's and tree huggers block any attempt at building new refineries. We are left to buying refined crude oil at higher prices from other countries.

AGNTSA.

Explain to me, in small words, how refining affects the price of crude.

"Refined crude??!??!@#!" What the fuck is that?

Refining crude is the process of turning the black shit that gets pumped from the ground into the golden colored shit that gets pumped into your gas tank.

It doesn't necessarily effect the price of crude, but it does have a huge impact on the price we pay at the pump.

ETA: Even if we were to open ANWAR and the gulf of mexico to drilling tomorrow and lets say we were able to get an extra 10 million barrels of crude starting tomorrow, the price would still remain high at the pump because the demand for refined crude (gasoline) would still remain high.

Right now all of the refineries in the US are running at full capacity. Their ability to pump out gasoline is a fixed constant. All the supply in the world will not effect this constant because refineries can only refine so much per day. The only way to increase the supply of gasoline is to a) purchase refined crude from other sources at a premium (which we are doing) or b) build new refineries with which to refine more crude into gas.

Is that in simple enough terms for you?

I've seen a few naysayers on arfcom about this, but I belive it to be true and the right thing to begin building more.

The last one was built in 1972 (IIRC) could be wrong, but it was sometime in the seventies.

Sure, the refineries have expanded, but not enough to the point where they have the capacity to refine more oil than they are right now. They seem to be pretty much capped at 100% production all the time that they can be operational.

We need more refineries, and soon.... Demand will only increase, and Demand outpaced the supply capability of the current refineries we have a long time ago....

Bah. Demand destruction has placed refinery utilization at under 90%. That is a comfortable utilization.

Posted: 7/17/2008 2:34:24 PM EDT

[#39]

I'll get real excited if oil ever drops down to the 60 bucks or less a barrel price. Until then, I'll wait and see what happens...

Posted: 7/17/2008 2:34:28 PM EDT

[#40]

Quoted:
NYMEX closed with losses for the last 3 days. We have not seen a 3 day drop of this magnitude in 25 years.

It's pretty remarkable, and interesting to watch.

Posted: 7/17/2008 2:47:02 PM EDT

[#41]

Quoted:
I'll get real excited if oil ever drops down to the 60 bucks or less a barrel price. Until then, I'll wait and see what happens...

It could, if the press would suppport the president and report that the drop IS because of announcements to enhance domestic drilling, the Saudis would export more oil to drop prices to avoid more domestic production.

Posted: 7/17/2008 5:35:15 PM EDT

[#42]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Blah blah blah blah.

Look, I want cheap gas not fancy talk.

BTW, what's this shortage you speak of?

Didn't OPEC tell us there is no shortage?

Also, I do not have the ability to fill my tank in 1998 now that its 2008.

No, you want STABLE gas prices. There was a PERCEIVED SHORTAGE in that FUTURE DEMAND was high but FUTURE PRODUCTION wasn't.

And OPEC? It lacks ultimate production control. Every single member that can pump in excess of their quota is. Venezula probably not but that is not surprising.

What do you mean by stability in this context?

Sameness? A steady rate of inflation? A steady low rate of inflation? Government control? Business control? OPEC control? Price based on factors which are based in fact?

Posted: 7/17/2008 6:31:51 PM EDT

[#43]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Blah blah blah blah.

Look, I want cheap gas not fancy talk.

BTW, what's this shortage you speak of?

Didn't OPEC tell us there is no shortage?

Also, I do not have the ability to fill my tank in 1998 now that its 2008.

No, you want STABLE gas prices. There was a PERCEIVED SHORTAGE in that FUTURE DEMAND was high but FUTURE PRODUCTION wasn't.

And OPEC? It lacks ultimate production control. Every single member that can pump in excess of their quota is. Venezula probably not but that is not surprising.

What do you mean by stability in this context?

Sameness? A steady rate of inflation? A steady low rate of inflation? Government control? Business control? OPEC control? Price based on factors which are based in fact?

Relative to the dollar. Along with a stable dollar.

Posted: 7/17/2008 6:39:30 PM EDT

[#44]

Quoted:

Quoted:
My guess for tomorrow??? Oil down $6+ a barrel.

It was $129.29 a barrel today at closing.

POP!

Educated guess, or hopeful guess? Either way, I hope you're right!

NYMEX closed with losses for the last 3 days. We have not seen a 3 day drop of this magnitude in 25 years.

Explain, and pretend you're talking to a person who's spent more time with a shovel than with an economist? In fact, don't pretend.

Posted: 7/17/2008 6:41:59 PM EDT

[#45]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Blah blah blah blah.

Look, I want cheap gas not fancy talk.

BTW, what's this shortage you speak of?

Didn't OPEC tell us there is no shortage?

Also, I do not have the ability to fill my tank in 1998 now that its 2008.

No, you want STABLE gas prices. There was a PERCEIVED SHORTAGE in that FUTURE DEMAND was high but FUTURE PRODUCTION wasn't.

And OPEC? It lacks ultimate production control. Every single member that can pump in excess of their quota is. Venezula probably not but that is not surprising.

What do you mean by stability in this context?

Sameness? A steady rate of inflation? A steady low rate of inflation? Government control? Business control? OPEC control? Price based on factors which are based in fact?

Relative to the dollar. Along with a stable dollar.

Yes, that would be a nice start.

But, I would also like to see lower prices at the pump.

A pipe dream you say......?

Perhaps.

Posted: 7/17/2008 6:55:53 PM EDT

[#46]

Quoted:

Quoted:
My guess for tomorrow??? Oil down $6+ a barrel.

It was $129.29 a barrel today at closing.

POP!

Educated guess, or hopeful guess? Either way, I hope you're right!

NYMEX closed with losses for the last 3 days. We have not seen a 3 day drop of this magnitude in 25 years.

Explain, and pretend you're talking to a person who's spent more time with a shovel than with an economist? In fact, don't pretend.

New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is where commodities and their futures are traded. I have been tracking oil. And for the last 3 days, the closing price has been less than the opening price. This is bad for the futures traders who bought at 130+. But good for the price of crude which makes 60% of the cost of gasoline. So gasoline should be getting cheaper.

Posted: 7/17/2008 6:59:01 PM EDT

[#47]

Quoted:

Quoted:
My guess for tomorrow??? Oil down $6+ a barrel.

It was $129.29 a barrel today at closing.

POP!

Educated guess, or hopeful guess? Either way, I hope you're right!

NYMEX closed with losses for the last 3 days. We have not seen a 3 day drop of this magnitude in 25 years.

Explain, and pretend you're talking to a person who's spent more time with a shovel than with an economist? In fact, don't pretend.

New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is where commodities and their futures are traded. I have been tracking oil. And for the last 3 days, the closing price has been less than the opening price. This is bad for the futures traders who bought at 130+. But good for the price of crude which makes 60% of the cost of gasoline. So gasoline should be getting cheaper.

There is still money to be made in oil.

I sense the shorties are sharpening their knives getting ready to jump in.

Posted: 7/17/2008 7:00:15 PM EDT

[#48]

New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is where commodities and their futures are traded. I have been tracking oil. And for the last 3 days, the closing price has been less than the opening price. This is bad for the futures traders who bought at 130+. But good for the price of crude which makes 60% of the cost of gasoline. So gasoline should be getting cheaper.

GASP! You mean the speculators are getting their just reward?

Posted: 7/17/2008 7:05:27 PM EDT

[#49]

Quoted:

New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is where commodities and their futures are traded. I have been tracking oil. And for the last 3 days, the closing price has been less than the opening price. This is bad for the futures traders who bought at 130+. But good for the price of crude which makes 60% of the cost of gasoline. So gasoline should be getting cheaper.

GASP! You mean the speculators are getting their just reward?

Amazing how things work out in the end...

My guess? Down $6+ per barrel tomorrow. More if there is a huge selloff.

Posted: 7/17/2008 7:16:15 PM EDT

[#50]

Quoted:

New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is where commodities and their futures are traded. I have been tracking oil. And for the last 3 days, the closing price has been less than the opening price. This is bad for the futures traders who bought at 130+. But good for the price of crude which makes 60% of the cost of gasoline. So gasoline should be getting cheaper.

GASP! You mean the speculators are getting their just reward?

Too late for them to sell short.

As it is midday on the Nikkei, they had an initial $0.96 "run", bringing it to over 130 but it fell to 129.85. It is Friday in Asia...

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Oil is down $7.40 so far today... (Page 3 of 4)

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