Warning

 

Close

Confirm Action

Are you sure you wish to do this?

Confirm Cancel
Member Login

Site Notices
Page / 4
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 10:34:40 AM EDT

Originally Posted By patriot73:

Originally Posted By Keith_J:

Originally Posted By evo462:

Originally Posted By ckyllo:
Do you think that as soon as we get out butts in gear and start making our own, that the middle east will suddenly get a suplus of oil and flood the market with cheap oil? In order to make domestic production less appealing?



happened in the early 80's.


Culminating in the market collapse of 1987, WATCH OUT.


Do you see another October 1987 on the horizon....or even worse? I was 14 when that happened and remember it quite well.


Huh, for some reason I thought you were older. Guess we are about the same age.
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 10:34:47 AM EDT
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 10:35:42 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Zhukov:
Nancy Pelosi sez:

publiuspundit.com/2007-07-11NancyPelosi.jpg

DRILLING Plastic Surgery IS NOT THE ANSWER!!!



Fixed it!
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 10:36:11 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Keith_J:

Originally Posted By evo462:

Originally Posted By TxLewis:

Originally Posted By coltaceguy:
That happens here in Indiana

Oil goes up, THAT DAY gas prices raise.


Oil goes down $5-10 a barrel, takes WEEKS for the consumer to see the gas lower at the pump, they are fucking us.


They are fucking you? shit, call the cops, tell them you have a gas station holding you up. Obviously, someone is pointing a gun at your head and making you buy the gas.

Hmmmm, or maybe, stick with me here, your lacking the neurons to see the truth, and believe that those big ole evil oil companies are the ones holding the price up. Because they love doing nothing more than answering questions asked by fucking morons in congress.

TXL


Lacking the neurons for proper grammar?


No, he is just full of rage against morons.


Then enlighten everybody, oh wise one.
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 10:38:56 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Zhukov:
Nancy Pelosi sez:

publiuspundit.com/2007-07-11NancyPelosi.jpg

DRILLING IS NOT THE ANSWER!!!


that has to be chopped
she looks like the joker.
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 10:38:57 AM EDT

Originally Posted By patriot73:

Originally Posted By Torf:

Originally Posted By DV8:

Originally Posted By Sylvan:

Originally Posted By DV8:
Supply isn't now nor has it been the big problem. The major issue at hand is being able to process the crude. We don't have enough refineries to process the current supply fast enough. Envirowhaco's and tree huggers block any attempt at building new refineries. We are left to buying refined crude oil at higher prices from other countries.


AGNTSA.

Explain to me, in small words, how refining affects the price of crude.

"Refined crude??!??!@#!" What the fuck is that?


Refining crude is the process of turning the black shit that gets pumped from the ground into the golden colored shit that gets pumped into your gas tank.

It doesn't necessarily effect the price of crude, but it does have a huge impact on the price we pay at the pump.

ETA: Even if we were to open ANWAR and the gulf of mexico to drilling tomorrow and lets say we were able to get an extra 10 million barrels of crude starting tomorrow, the price would still remain high at the pump because the demand for refined crude (gasoline) would still remain high.

Right now all of the refineries in the US are running at full capacity. Their ability to pump out gasoline is a fixed constant. All the supply in the world will not effect this constant because refineries can only refine so much per day. The only way to increase the supply of gasoline is to a) purchase refined crude from other sources at a premium (which we are doing) or b) build new refineries with which to refine more crude into gas.

Is that in simple enough terms for you?


God, that is no naive and silly.

Refineries have to base their prices on the cost of the raw material. In this case, OIL is expensive so their output will be marked up accordingly. If their input goes down in price, they will charge less.

If refining was the bottleneck, then WHY IS CRUDE SO EXPENSIVE? If refining was the bottleneck there would be a glut of crude, and there isn't.


Little kids learn this at like 9 when the lemons get more expensive at the grocery store, they need to raise the price at the lemonade stand.


Lemons are used to make lemonade! What does that have anything to do with our discussion?
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 10:40:22 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Torf:

Originally Posted By patriot73:

Originally Posted By Torf:

Originally Posted By DV8:

Originally Posted By Sylvan:

Originally Posted By DV8:
Supply isn't now nor has it been the big problem. The major issue at hand is being able to process the crude. We don't have enough refineries to process the current supply fast enough. Envirowhaco's and tree huggers block any attempt at building new refineries. We are left to buying refined crude oil at higher prices from other countries.


AGNTSA.

Explain to me, in small words, how refining affects the price of crude.

"Refined crude??!??!@#!" What the fuck is that?


Refining crude is the process of turning the black shit that gets pumped from the ground into the golden colored shit that gets pumped into your gas tank.

It doesn't necessarily effect the price of crude, but it does have a huge impact on the price we pay at the pump.

ETA: Even if we were to open ANWAR and the gulf of mexico to drilling tomorrow and lets say we were able to get an extra 10 million barrels of crude starting tomorrow, the price would still remain high at the pump because the demand for refined crude (gasoline) would still remain high.

Right now all of the refineries in the US are running at full capacity. Their ability to pump out gasoline is a fixed constant. All the supply in the world will not effect this constant because refineries can only refine so much per day. The only way to increase the supply of gasoline is to a) purchase refined crude from other sources at a premium (which we are doing) or b) build new refineries with which to refine more crude into gas.

Is that in simple enough terms for you?


God, that is no naive and silly.

Refineries have to base their prices on the cost of the raw material. In this case, OIL is expensive so their output will be marked up accordingly. If their input goes down in price, they will charge less.

If refining was the bottleneck, then WHY IS CRUDE SO EXPENSIVE? If refining was the bottleneck there would be a glut of crude, and there isn't.


Little kids learn this at like 9 when the lemons get more expensive at the grocery store, they need to raise the price at the lemonade stand.


Lemons are used to make lemonade! What does that have anything to do with our discussion?

big lemon would like you to believe that.
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 10:43:11 AM EDT
PEAK LEMONS!!!!
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 10:44:20 AM EDT

Originally Posted By MrMojoRising:
PEAK LEMONS!!!!


Lemon party?

Link Posted: 7/15/2008 10:45:57 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Keith_J:

Originally Posted By MrMojoRising:
PEAK LEMONS!!!!


Lemon party?



[runs off to google...]
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 10:46:25 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Keith_J:

Originally Posted By MrMojoRising:
PEAK LEMONS!!!!


Lemon party?




Peek lemons?


Link Posted: 7/15/2008 10:49:58 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Zhukov:
Nancy Pelosi sez:

publiuspundit.com/2007-07-11NancyPelosi.jpg

DRILLING IS NOT THE ANSWER!!!



you sir are the debil....and I hate you.
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 10:50:33 AM EDT
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 10:57:20 AM EDT
Most refineries buy enough futures to fill 75-80% of their anticipated need for the next 6 months. But when oil jumps, demand also jumps as people think it won't fall, putting additional demand on fuels so prices MUST jump to keep inventories constant.

And because demand jumps, the refinery must now go on the spot market for that 0-25% additional crude needed because of demand increase.

Since crude has been increasing over time, most of the base supply is inflated in price. So when the price DROPS, the incremental cost of production drops a bit but the bulk of the cost is still there.

Link Posted: 7/15/2008 10:57:32 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 7/15/2008 10:58:49 AM EDT by jwr6]

Originally Posted By evo462:

Originally Posted By ckyllo:
Do you think that as soon as we get out butts in gear and start making our own, that the middle east will suddenly get a suplus of oil and flood the market with cheap oil? In order to make domestic production less appealing?



happened in the early 80's.


Also happens whenever we get serious about tar sands, oil shale, coal gassification, etc. There's a price at which it is cheaper to import than do that stuff, and the ME likes to keep us importing.

Personally, I think the Saudis would do it now if they could, just to get us to stop talking"offshore drilling" talk. Once we commit the money to do it, it will probably be too late for OPEC to influence the decision.
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 10:58:21 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Zhukov:
I expect more missile test firing coming out of Iran shortly, along with an incendiary statement by Ahmadinejad.


They ran out of fuel and oxidizer. UDMH and IRFNA are hard to make...
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 11:01:08 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Keith_J:

Originally Posted By Zhukov:
I expect more missile test firing coming out of Iran shortly, along with an incendiary statement by Ahmadinejad.


They ran out of fuel and oxidizer. UDMH and IRFNA are hard to make...

won't keep him from talking.
And thats all it takes.
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 11:04:50 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Subconscious:
Seven years? Cool, my kids should be starting to drive about then. Perfect, actually!



I keep thinking the same thing.
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 11:05:26 AM EDT

Originally Posted By MrMojoRising:
PEAK LEMONS!!!!


Link Posted: 7/15/2008 11:24:41 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Avalon01:

Originally Posted By Red_Label:
Glenn Beck was talking last night about the deal where the skeptics say that even if we start drilling now, it'll take SEVEN years to see the results. Like he said, we put a man on the friggin' moon in not much more time than that. This is AMERICA, we should be able to do A LOT better than that.


Even if it takes 7 years - so what?

The whole "It will take too long" cry drives me crazy. Everything takes time. Had we started this process back in 2001 we would be getting our first shipments of American oil by now.

Av.


Thats some pretty damn good math.
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 11:31:45 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 7/15/2008 12:01:24 PM EDT by Subnet]

Originally Posted By evo462:
They already covered the cost by raising their price immediately.

Let's say oil goes up $11 in one day, like it did several weeks ago. Gas went up 20 or 30 cents in some places. It dropped back down to pre spike levels shortly after, yet gas remained up. Seems pretty cut and dry to me.


You're observations are correct, but you're assigning the wrong cause. It's actually pretty simple, and you'll go "Oh!" after it's explained.

To illustrate why prices come down slower than they go up, consider everybody's favorite analogy, the lemonade stand. Also, let us assume that the owner wishes to average 10% profit for the month, and to do that, it's understood that the profit each day will be 10%.

-=DAY 1=-
You own a lemonade stand and you sell 10 gallons a day. Your lemons, sugar and water cost you $1.00 a gallon. You wish to make a reasonable 10% profit, so you price your lemonade at $1.10. You sell all 10 gallons. You have made $11 in gross sales for the day. Lemon, sugar and water prices have remained the same, so you order another 10 gallons for tomorrow (cost: $10), leaving you with $1 in profit (10%).


-=DAY 2=-
You have 10 gallons of lemonade, and you paid $10 for it. You're planning on selling it for $1.10 a gallon, just like yesterday. However, just as the day begins, you learn that sugar prices have jumped dramatically. When you go to order lemonade tonight, it's going to cost you $1.10. That's what you're selling your lemonade for right now, at retail! If you sell all 10 gallons at $1.10 (because you only paid $1.00, after all) then you will have 0 profit for the day when you order lemonade for tomorrow. Again, you wish to make a 10% profit, so you instead decide to raise the price to $1.21.

"Why so high?!!", your customers ask. Well, $1.10 (tonight's purchase price) + 10% (a reasonable profit) = $1.21. Surely, they wouldn't begrudge you an honest 10% profit (then again...). You explain this to them, and they go "Oh, that makes sense". Great!

So today, you've sold all 10 gallons. Your gross sales for the day are $1.21 x 10 = $12.10. You order up your expensive lemonade again from the supplier for $1.10 * 10 = $11, leaving you with $1.10 profit for the day (10%).



-=DAY 3=-
You have 10 gallons of $1.10 (to you) lemonade to sell. Just as the day begins, you contact your supplier about tonight's order, and he's unsure. He thinks it might come down, but it might also remain the same.

You decide to sell your lemonade for yesterday's price of $1.21. If the price goes down, you'll make more than 10% today, but if it remains constant, you'll make 10%.

Yesterday, the price increase afforded you a reasonable 10% profit for the day. That was yesterday. Today, you wish to do the same, and feel that a 10% profit is reasonable. You are sitting on 10 gallons of $1.10 lemonade right now, and to make a guaranteed 10%, you must sell it for $1.21 a gallon. Tonight, you may be ordering it cheaper (yay!), and may be able to drop the price tomorrow.

So today, you sell all 10 gallons for $1.21 x 10 = $12.10 (gross). You order up another 10 gallons of lemonade for 10 x $1.00 = $10. It turns out, the price dropped. You have made $2.10 (net) today. That's a touch over 19% profit, but there was a risk of prices not coming down as expected. Now that that's over (and they really did come down)...


-=DAY 4=-
Everything is still looking fine as far as future prices are concerned. You made a bunch of money yesterday (risk), and you can afford to sell lemonade much cheaper today - even at a loss for the day. You sell 10 x $0.99 = $9.90 worth of lemonade. You order up another 10 gallons of lemonade for $10, leaving you with a $0.10 loss for the day.


-=Costs=-
Day 1 = $10
Day 2 = $11
Day 3 = $10
Day 4 = $10
Total: $41

=-Gross Sales=-
Day 1 = $11
Day 2 = $12.10
Day 3 = $12.10
Day 4 = $$9.90
Total: $45.10

$41 (costs) + 10% (profit) = $45.10. Well, look at that. A reasonable 10% profit for the month, and you were able to manage risk.

That's why they sometimes come down slower. There are other reasons too, but "stickin' it to us" isn't the only answer.


Gasoline pricing is MUCH more complex, obviously. The one thing that I think folks can learn from this, is that it's not collusion. Remember, that every business is competing with every other business for your money. If every gas station in 3 counties doesn't drop their price immediately, then it's one of a few things:

1. They are colluding with each other (an interesting feat of collaboration and agreement among hundreds of stations, undetected on short notice).
2. The price came down today, but it's going to skyrocket later, negating what would have otherwise been a low price today.
3. The price might stay down, or it might not, and some are hedging just in case.


Anyway, my little example assumes the lemonade stand owner is managing risk. I could run another scenario where the price drops tomorrow, but it's going to go up 30% in a week, and he needs to plan for it. There are all sorts of things that happen, but "price gouging" isn't one of them, unless one provides specific evidence of abnormally high profits as a percentage *and* (when everybody's doing it), specific evidence of collusion. Absent those things, it's just the market doing it's thing.

Ignorance of the specific cause of a price increase is not in itself evidence of collusion, or profiteering, or price gouging, or predatory pricing or (ugly phrase of the day).

Anyway, I hope somebody finds all that useful. Note that understanding how prices are determined doesn't mean you have to like them. Personally, I think gas prices suck ass, how 'bout you?
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 11:33:10 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Subnet:

Originally Posted By evo462:
They already covered the cost by raising their price immediately.

Let's say oil goes up $11 in one day, like it did several weeks ago. Gas went up 20 or 30 cents in some places. It dropped back down to pre spike levels shortly after, yet gas remained up. Seems pretty cut and dry to me.


You're observations are correct, but you're assigning the wrong cause. It's actually pretty simple, and you'll go "Oh!" after it's explained.

To illustrate why prices come down slower than they go up, consider everybody's favorite analogy, the lemonade stand. Also, let us assume that the owner wishes to average 10% profit for the month, and to do that, it's understood that the profit each day will be 10%.

-=DAY 1=-
You own a lemonade stand and you sell 10 gallons a day. Your lemons, sugar and water cost you $1.00 a gallon. You wish to make a reasonable 10% profit, so you price your lemonade at $1.10. You sell all 10 gallons. You have made $11 in gross sales for the day. Lemon, sugar and water prices have remained the same, so you order another 10 gallons for tomorrow (cost: $10), leaving you with $1 in profit (10%).


-=DAY 2=-
You have 10 gallons of lemonade, and you paid $10 for it. You're planning on selling it for $1.10 a gallon, just like yesterday. However, just as the day begins, you learn that sugar prices have jumped dramatically. When you go to order lemonade tonight, it's going to cost you $1.10. That's what you're selling your lemonade for right now, at retail! If you sell all 10 gallons at $1.10 (because you only paid $1.00, after all) then you will have 0 profit for the day when you order lemonade for tomorrow. Again, you wish to make a 10% profit, so you instead decide to raise the price to $1.21.

"Why so high?!!", your customers ask. Well, $1.10 (tonight's purchase price) + 10% (a reasonable profit) = $1.21. Surely, they wouldn't begrudge you an honest 10% profit (then again...). You explain this to them, and they go "Oh, that makes sense". Great!

So today, you've sold all 10 gallons. Your gross sales for the day are $1.21 x 10 = $12.10. You order up your expensive lemonade again from the supplier for $1.10 * 10 = $11, leaving you with $1.10 profit for the day (10%).



-=DAY 3=-
You have 10 gallons of $1.10 (to you) lemonade to sell. Just as the day begins, you contact your supplier about tonight's order, and he's unsure. He thinks it might come down, but it might also remain the same.

You decide to sell your lemonade for yesterday's price of $1.21. If the price goes down, you'll make more than 10% today, but if it remains constant, you'll make 10%.

Yesterday, the price increase afforded you a reasonable 10% profit for the day. That was yesterday. Today, you wish to do the same, and feel that a 10% profit is reasonable. You are sitting on 10 gallons of $1.10 lemonade right now, and to make a guaranteed 10%, you must sell it for $1.21 a gallon. Tonight, you may be ordering it cheaper (yay!), and may be able to drop the price tomorrow.

So today, you sell all 10 gallons for $1.21 x 10 = $12.10 (gross). You order up another 10 gallons of lemonade for 10 x $1.00 = $10. It turns out, the price dropped. You have made $2.10 (net) today. That's a touch over 19% profit, but there was a risk of prices not coming down as expected. Now that that's over (and they really did come down)...


-=DAY 4=-
Everything is still looking fine as far as future prices are concerned. You made a bunch of money yesterday (risk), and you can afford to sell lemonade much cheaper today - even at a loss for the day. You sell 10 x $0.99 = $9.90 worth of lemonade. You order up another 10 gallons of lemonade for $10, leaving you with a $0.10 loss for the day.


-=Costs=-
Day 1 = $10
Day 2 = $11
Day 3 = $10
Day 4 = $10
Total: $41

=-Gross Sales=-
Day 1 = $11
Day 2 = $12.10
Day 3 = $12.10
Day 4 = $$9.90
Total: $45.10

$41 (costs) + 10% (profit) = $45.10. Well, look at that. A reasonable 10% profit for the month, and you were able to manage risk.

That's why they sometimes come down slower. There are other reasons too, but "stickin' it to us" isn't the only answer.


Gasoline pricing is MUCH more complex, obviously. The one thing that I think folks can learn from this, is that it's not collusion. Remember, that every business is competing with every other business for your money. If every gas station in 3 counties doesn't drop their price immediately, then it's one of a few things:

1. They are colluding with each other (an interesting feat of collaboration and agreement among hundreds of stations, undetected on short notice).
2. The price came down today, but it's going to skyrocket later, negating what would have otherwise been a low price today.
3. The price might stay down, or it might not, and some are hedging just in case.


Anyway, my little example assumes the lemonade stand owner is managing risk. I could run another scenario where the price drops tomorrow, but it's going to go up 30% in a week, and he needs to plan for it. There are all sorts of things that happen, but "price gouging" isn't one of them, unless one provides specific evidence of abnormally high profits as a percentage *and* (when everybody's doing it), specific evidence of collusion. Absent those things, it's just the market doing it's thing.

Ignorance of the specific cause of a price increase is not in itself
evidence of collusion, or profiteering, or price gouging, or predatory pricing or (ugly phrase of the day).

Anyway, I hope somebody finds all that useful. Note that understanding how prices are determined doesn't mean you have to like them. Personally, I think gas prices suck ass, how 'bout you?


Subnet, this is why I slept through High School
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 11:41:37 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 7/15/2008 11:42:03 AM EDT by DV8]

Originally Posted By Subnet:

Originally Posted By evo462:
They already covered the cost by raising their price immediately.

Let's say oil goes up $11 in one day, like it did several weeks ago. Gas went up 20 or 30 cents in some places. It dropped back down to pre spike levels shortly after, yet gas remained up. Seems pretty cut and dry to me.


You're observations are correct, but you're assigning the wrong cause. It's actually pretty simple, and you'll go "Oh!" after it's explained.

To illustrate why prices come down slower than they go up, consider everybody's favorite analogy, the lemonade stand. Also, let us assume that the owner wishes to average 10% profit for the month, and to do that, it's understood that the profit each day will be 10%.

-=DAY 1=-
You own a lemonade stand and you sell 10 gallons a day. Your lemons, sugar and water cost you $1.00 a gallon. You wish to make a reasonable 10% profit, so you price your lemonade at $1.10. You sell all 10 gallons. You have made $11 in gross sales for the day. Lemon, sugar and water prices have remained the same, so you order another 10 gallons for tomorrow (cost: $10), leaving you with $1 in profit (10%).


-=DAY 2=-
You have 10 gallons of lemonade, and you paid $10 for it. You're planning on selling it for $1.10 a gallon, just like yesterday. However, just as the day begins, you learn that sugar prices have jumped dramatically. When you go to order lemonade tonight, it's going to cost you $1.10. That's what you're selling your lemonade for right now, at retail! If you sell all 10 gallons at $1.10 (because you only paid $1.00, after all) then you will have 0 profit for the day when you order lemonade for tomorrow. Again, you wish to make a 10% profit, so you instead decide to raise the price to $1.21.

"Why so high?!!", your customers ask. Well, $1.10 (tonight's purchase price) + 10% (a reasonable profit) = $1.21. Surely, they wouldn't begrudge you an honest 10% profit (then again...). You explain this to them, and they go "Oh, that makes sense". Great!

So today, you've sold all 10 gallons. Your gross sales for the day are $1.21 x 10 = $12.10. You order up your expensive lemonade again from the supplier for $1.10 * 10 = $11, leaving you with $1.10 profit for the day (10%).



-=DAY 3=-
You have 10 gallons of $1.10 (to you) lemonade to sell. Just as the day begins, you contact your supplier about tonight's order, and he's unsure. He thinks it might come down, but it might also remain the same.

You decide to sell your lemonade for yesterday's price of $1.21. If the price goes down, you'll make more than 10% today, but if it remains constant, you'll make 10%.

Yesterday, the price increase afforded you a reasonable 10% profit for the day. That was yesterday. Today, you wish to do the same, and feel that a 10% profit is reasonable. You are sitting on 10 gallons of $1.10 lemonade right now, and to make a guaranteed 10%, you must sell it for $1.21 a gallon. Tonight, you may be ordering it cheaper (yay!), and may be able to drop the price tomorrow.

So today, you sell all 10 gallons for $1.21 x 10 = $12.10 (gross). You order up another 10 gallons of lemonade for 10 x $1.00 = $10. It turns out, the price dropped. You have made $2.10 (net) today. That's a touch over 19% profit, but there was a risk of prices not coming down as expected. Now that that's over (and they really did come down)...


-=DAY 4=-
Everything is still looking fine as far as future prices are concerned. You made a bunch of money yesterday (risk), and you can afford to sell lemonade much cheaper today - even at a loss for the day. You sell 10 x $0.99 = $9.90 worth of lemonade. You order up another 10 gallons of lemonade for $10, leaving you with a $0.10 loss for the day.


-=Costs=-
Day 1 = $10
Day 2 = $11
Day 3 = $10
Day 4 = $10
Total: $41

=-Gross Sales=-
Day 1 = $11
Day 2 = $12.10
Day 3 = $12.10
Day 4 = $$9.90
Total: $45.10

$41 (costs) + 10% (profit) = $45.10. Well, look at that. A reasonable 10% profit for the month, and you were able to manage risk.

That's why they sometimes come down slower. There are other reasons too, but "stickin' it to us" isn't the only answer.


Gasoline pricing is MUCH more complex, obviously. The one thing that I think folks can learn from this, is that it's not collusion. Remember, that every business is competing with every other business for your money. If every gas station in 3 counties doesn't drop their price immediately, then it's one of a few things:

1. They are colluding with each other (an interesting feat of collaboration and agreement among hundreds of stations, undetected on short notice).
2. The price came down today, but it's going to skyrocket later, negating what would have otherwise been a low price today.
3. The price might stay down, or it might not, and some are hedging just in case.


Anyway, my little example assumes the lemonade stand owner is managing risk. I could run another scenario where the price drops tomorrow, but it's going to go up 30% in a week, and he needs to plan for it. There are all sorts of things that happen, but "price gouging" isn't one of them, unless one provides specific evidence of abnormally high profits as a percentage *and* (when everybody's doing it), specific evidence of collusion. Absent those things, it's just the market doing it's thing.

Ignorance of the specific cause of a price increase is not in itself
evidence of collusion, or profiteering, or price gouging, or predatory pricing or (ugly phrase of the day).

Anyway, I hope somebody finds all that useful. Note that understanding how prices are determined doesn't mean you have to like them. Personally, I think gas prices suck ass, how 'bout you?



So did the train leaving station A at 3:42pm going 73mph ever meet up with the bus leaving station B at 4:12am going 57 mph with enough time left to spare to have lunch with Mary who had 2 sammiches, 3 apples and a half gallon of water after giving 1 sammich, an orange an 6 apples to Tom?
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 12:10:09 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Zhukov:
I expect more missile test firing coming out of Iran shortly, along with an incendiary statement by Ahmadinejad.


Well played. I would agree. Or possibly some sheik in the M.E. will take a dump in public.
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 12:14:04 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Keith_J:

Originally Posted By Zhukov:
I expect more missile test firing coming out of Iran shortly, along with an incendiary statement by Ahmadinejad.


They ran out of fuel and oxidizer. UDMH and IRFNA are hard to make...


They're looking to replace their photoshop guy.
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 12:16:10 PM EDT

Originally Posted By evo462:


Then enlighten everybody, oh wise one.


Looks like subnet picked up that mantle today, do you understand now?

Are you smarter than a 5th grader?

LEMON PARTY!!!!! OMG been awhile since I heard that....

TXL
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 12:16:23 PM EDT

Originally Posted By DV8:
So did the train leaving station A at 3:42pm going 73mph ever meet up with the bus leaving station B at 4:12am going 57 mph with enough time left to spare to have lunch with Mary who had 2 sammiches, 3 apples and a half gallon of water after giving 1 sammich, an orange an 6 apples to Tom?


D=RT

Let's assume "lunch" is at 5:00pm, and both train and bus started from the same place (Station A is for trains, and Station B is for buses).

-=Train=-
D = 73 * 1.3
D = 94.9 miles

-=Bus=-
D = 57 * 12.8
D = 729.6 miles

At 5:00, the bus was looooong gone. The train didn't make it.
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 12:20:44 PM EDT

Originally Posted By TxLewis:

Originally Posted By evo462:


Then enlighten everybody, oh wise one.


Looks like subnet picked up that mantle today, do you understand now?

Are you smarter than a 5th grader?

LEMON PARTY!!!!! OMG been awhile since I heard that....

TXL


When life gives you lemons...
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 12:23:28 PM EDT
Okay, so if I am reading all this correct, somebody made a car that runs on lemons?



Link Posted: 7/15/2008 12:31:19 PM EDT
I read somewhere awhile ago that due to the demand in diesel US refineries had shifted production to diesel and were shipping it over to europe.
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 12:47:37 PM EDT
So when are we going to pay money to the orange growers to stretch out our lemon supply?
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 12:51:39 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Red_Label:
Glenn Beck was talking last night about the deal where the skeptics say that even if we start drilling now, it'll take SEVEN years to see the results. Like he said, we put a man on the friggin' moon in not much more time than that. This is AMERICA, we should be able to do A LOT better than that.


But Armstrong didn't have to lobby congress and vote in sub-commitees...
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 12:58:10 PM EDT

Originally Posted By oulufinn:
The, "It takes too long", crowd was wrong then & their ww=rong now.

"Earth First!" We'll drill the other planets later.


The "Takes too long" crowd was also saying the same thing 8 years ago... good thing we listened to them then too...
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 1:01:04 PM EDT

Originally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman:
I was waiting for you to chime in Keith!

There was alot of bad news lately that might cause oil to jump, and it went DOWN big time today.

I think thats a sign. The legs of the camel are starting to shake...


The biggest neon lights are the volatility. Daily price moves of 4-10% are a sure signal of wayy to much money chasing the market...

Oil busted below it's channel today, if it closes lower tomorrow, it will be "look out beloooowww!" time.


Using past bubbles as a guide I would no be surprised to see it drop below $100/b in as little as four weeks.
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 1:01:50 PM EDT

Originally Posted By GeorgiaBII:
I read somewhere awhile ago that due to the demand in diesel US refineries had shifted production to diesel and were shipping it over to europe.


I have tried and tried to comprehend the worldwide market and to no avail. Supposedly refineries in Europe are geared towards diesel production and sell their gasoline to us. At the local refinery, crude comes in from all over the place, I assume that it is bought and sold much like we would shop for stuff at a garage sale, a bit of haggling here and there etc as I am certain that the market price we see on TV is not what all crude goes for. Tesoro publishes a "Crude Bulletin" that shows what prices they are paying for various forms of US crude.

I do know that the refinery company that is near me says that they plan on focusing more on diesel because it has a better profit margin than gasoline. The refinery companies have taken a serious beating with all this because they are stuck in the middle. They have to pay the high price for the raw product and then they get the grief for having to raise the price at the pump. What sucks (for the refinery) is that Crude has doubled since last year while gasoline prices have not kept up the same pace, thus the focus on switching to producing fuels that do not cost as much to refine. Tesoro stocks have tumbled from the $60 range in January to right around $15 lately and they lost like $80m the first qtr this year. Everyone is fearful of the 2nd QTR results that are supposed to be announced soon.

I live like 5 miles from the Tesoro Kenai Refinery and they are a primary source of employment in the area, so I do have a vested interest in their health. We lost one manufacturing plant (Agrium) recently due to this state's mishandling of its resources.

What kills me with the oil prices is the constant cry that it is "Supply and demand" when there are NO supply issues. There is a glut of gasoline. Supplies are nice and high, there are no lines at the pumps, and no one is running out of fuel ANYWHERE. I think the impact of the speculators has been understated and that there are probably some really big outfits that are going to tank when prices drop due to being overly invested in Crude and that they are trying to exit the market slowly to try and avoid causing a mad rush which could topple fellow outfits....but that is all speculation based on the sharp drops we see one day and the sharp rise another as dumbass speculators rush in to fill the void. I really have no clue as to how it works as far as that part goes.
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 1:02:46 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Neotopia:

Originally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman:
I was waiting for you to chime in Keith!

There was alot of bad news lately that might cause oil to jump, and it went DOWN big time today.

I think thats a sign. The legs of the camel are starting to shake...


The biggest neon lights are the volatility. Daily price moves of 4-10% are a sure signal of wayy to much money chasing the market...

Oil busted below it's channel today, if it closes lower tomorrow, it will be "look out beloooowww!" time.


Using past bubbles as a guide I would no be surprised to see it drop below $100/b in as little as four weeks.


I hope you are right, so Obama can't take the credit. Bush can.
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 1:05:40 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Torf:

Originally Posted By Neotopia:

Originally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman:
I was waiting for you to chime in Keith!

There was alot of bad news lately that might cause oil to jump, and it went DOWN big time today.

I think thats a sign. The legs of the camel are starting to shake...


The biggest neon lights are the volatility. Daily price moves of 4-10% are a sure signal of wayy to much money chasing the market...

Oil busted below it's channel today, if it closes lower tomorrow, it will be "look out beloooowww!" time.


Using past bubbles as a guide I would no be surprised to see it drop below $100/b in as little as four weeks.


I hope you are right, so Obama can't take the credit. Bush can.




All oil has to do is close lower tomorrow and it's all over...
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 1:08:44 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Neotopia:

Originally Posted By Torf:

Originally Posted By Neotopia:

Originally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman:
I was waiting for you to chime in Keith!

There was alot of bad news lately that might cause oil to jump, and it went DOWN big time today.

I think thats a sign. The legs of the camel are starting to shake...


The biggest neon lights are the volatility. Daily price moves of 4-10% are a sure signal of wayy to much money chasing the market...

Oil busted below it's channel today, if it closes lower tomorrow, it will be "look out beloooowww!" time.


Using past bubbles as a guide I would no be surprised to see it drop below $100/b in as little as four weeks.


I hope you are right, so Obama can't take the credit. Bush can.


i233.photobucket.com/albums/ee217/Neotopia2007/Oilchannel.jpg

All oil has to do is close lower tomorrow and it's all over...


That's fascinating, actually. I hadn't thought to look at a moving average. Hmmm...

I think you're on to something, here.
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 1:11:45 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Subnet:

Originally Posted By Neotopia:

Originally Posted By Torf:

Originally Posted By Neotopia:

Originally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman:
I was waiting for you to chime in Keith!

There was alot of bad news lately that might cause oil to jump, and it went DOWN big time today.

I think thats a sign. The legs of the camel are starting to shake...


The biggest neon lights are the volatility. Daily price moves of 4-10% are a sure signal of wayy to much money chasing the market...

Oil busted below it's channel today, if it closes lower tomorrow, it will be "look out beloooowww!" time.


Using past bubbles as a guide I would no be surprised to see it drop below $100/b in as little as four weeks.


I hope you are right, so Obama can't take the credit. Bush can.


i233.photobucket.com/albums/ee217/Neotopia2007/Oilchannel.jpg

All oil has to do is close lower tomorrow and it's all over...


That's fascinating, actually. I hadn't thought to look at a moving average. Hmmm...

I think you're on to something, here.


Like I said before, the biggest warning lights are the volatility, look at how much the price swings have increased in just the past two months! Intraday swings of $10+ are not uncommon!!
Link Posted: 7/15/2008 2:01:17 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Keith_J:

Originally Posted By TxLewis:

Originally Posted By evo462:


Then enlighten everybody, oh wise one.


Looks like subnet picked up that mantle today, do you understand now?

Are you smarter than a 5th grader?

LEMON PARTY!!!!! OMG been awhile since I heard that....

TXL


When life gives you lemons...


Find someone who's life gives them Vodka and Paaaarrrrrrtttttyyyyyyy!!!!! -Ron White.
Link Posted: 7/16/2008 8:52:58 AM EDT
WTI spot is down another $4.50 so far. NYMEX crude future is down another $4.06.

That's a hell of a drop in two days. There are some speculators taking a fucking bath, right now. You just know it.
Link Posted: 7/16/2008 8:54:46 AM EDT
Let me say it again. We are still probably 5-6 years out, but when oil stabalizes it will be $40-60 a barrel.
Link Posted: 7/16/2008 8:58:24 AM EDT
Where is Dave A?
Link Posted: 7/16/2008 8:59:51 AM EDT

Originally Posted By sherrick13:
Let me say it again. We are still probably 5-6 years out, but when oil stabalizes it will be $40-60 a barrel.


I'm inclined to agree with you.
Link Posted: 7/16/2008 9:06:54 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Subnet:

Originally Posted By sherrick13:
Let me say it again. We are still probably 5-6 years out, but when oil stabalizes it will be $40-60 a barrel.


I'm inclined to agree with you.


I'm inclined to agree with him as well, but he doesn't have that great a track record.
Link Posted: 7/16/2008 9:07:26 AM EDT
Another technical indicator was the formation of a double top, both tops were soundly rejected. If this reversal does not hold, and turns out to be a correction, we can anticipate a rapid jump up again to new highs. If it holds, the mid $140's may go down in the books, only to be brought up the next time this happens.

Link Posted: 7/16/2008 9:09:31 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Neotopia:
I hope you are right, so Obama can't take the credit. Bush can.


i233.photobucket.com/albums/ee217/Neotopia2007/Oilchannel.jpg

All oil has to do is close lower tomorrow and it's all over...

Are the dates on that chart correct?
Link Posted: 7/16/2008 9:11:22 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Zaphod:

Originally Posted By Neotopia:
I hope you are right, so Obama can't take the credit. Bush can.


i233.photobucket.com/albums/ee217/Neotopia2007/Oilchannel.jpg

All oil has to do is close lower tomorrow and it's all over...

Are the dates on that chart correct?


Oil wasn't at those prices in 2001 so those must mean Jan 1st, Feb 1st, ect.
Link Posted: 7/16/2008 9:14:12 AM EDT

Originally Posted By ArmdLbrl:
Where is Dave A?



At work?
Link Posted: 7/16/2008 9:16:55 AM EDT
finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:OIL

If that doesnt look like a break I dont know what does.

Can you say SELL!!!
Page / 4
Top Top