This is a serious storm. Or I should say it will be by the time it gets close.

I'm REALLY hoping it curves up north and though it's too early to tell, it looks like this will be well worth watch closely.

Looks like someone's getting a date with Irma. 

*One finger on each temple.
*Eyes closed.
*Think "Curl north. Curl sharp north."

And let's just get it out of the way now. Trumps fault.

Preps completed back in the summer.   My homes are prepared.  Prayers have been said.  Now the wait

Protus- guess we'll camp..  yup..hang the hammocks up in the trees.
Wife- build our tree house
Protus - fuck yeah,,,Swiss family Robinson did it with a boat...we can do it...hell yeah.
Wife- there ya go....awesome..
Protus- but we don't have an elephant......
Wife - stay positive babe ......

 Needless to say...as ready as we can be...

Planning on the Keys 2nd week of Sept. For now it looks like it might play out.

Looe Key is a go and me and momma can do 6 ft. swells at 68 years. Bring it.

So, am having a seance to push bitch Irma up to New Jersey. Their Gov. is a pro at this stuff. Sandy and all.

Hey, you new guys to the state. How do you like the mental anguish of looking over your shoulder this time of year.                                                                
Kind of like living in a bad neighbor hood.       Hang in there.

Bitch Irma doesn't have eyeballs on you yet. Long time to go.

Whapadappadoodoo. Here we go.

The latest five day plot shows that Irma may pass to the north of the eastern Herbert Box which might be good news.

We'll have to wait and see.

First time round, I did 6 years on the space coast (2008 to 2014) and only got a few scares and some rain.  Spent two years in AL and got a little lax in my preparedness. Moved down to Broward a couple months ago and this one has got me a bit nervous.

Hell, I just now unpacked the extension cords and am still looking for all my damn jerry cans.  The battery backup system and everything else, who knows where. Evac locations, hell . . . haven't scouted any yet.

Hoping this one decides to hook north and amscray back out to the Atlantic.

Edited for spelling/grammar to correct Autocorrect.

Latest models seems to indicate it will move north earlier than previous models...skirting east of Bahamas and going north to Carolinas.

Little early to fully relax about this, but I'm hoping it's path look similar to these.

Still too many of those models hitting FL for my comfort level.  Lets see what she does in the next few days cause we all know these things have minds of their own and don't care about computer models.

Guess who's headed to St. Thomas tomorrow for vacation

New Fl resident checking in........ Yea, Irma looks intense but I'm hoping that she will turn north long before nearing our state. 

Bring it on bitch!

Yeah, Houston looks like so much fun, whens our turn!

I spent some time yesterday checking preps and correcting my shortfalls. I learned a lot from Mathew but I've still never endured a major hurricane.

I've got food, water, medical supplies and all the typical stuff like documents secured but I don't have a generator yet. Question for my power gurus, what size generator would I need to run my fridge and a small window A/C? Ideally I'd like to be able to cool my bedroom and keep food fresh.

Am I overlooking any other necessities?

I have a Honda 2000, it will run a 5000 btu window shaker. 2004 Frances and Jean I ran the fridge and box fans.
Had central air so no go. Box fans worked the week power was out both times. Propane cooker did the food.

I am not liking the European model, press the play button
euro

Might get some overtime depending where it goes.

NHC is moving "Kermit" the P-3 Orion Hurricane Hunter down to Barbados to begin missions tomorrow into #Irma. @NOAA_HurrHunter pic.twitter.com/mGUblh4iKA

James Sinko  (@JamesSinko) September 2, 2017

"AMMO MAN  TAKE AMMO"
last year for Matthew this was the best place for info, same 30 guys reporting in
so if its close come on in and sound off

I'm across from an eastern inlet, hopefully not the 10 ring
but we be ready

I'll let you guys know when shit starts to hit the fan in the Caribbean. I think I should be back in SWFL before the storm hits here though. 

Here is the big thread in GD.  

Fueled up the boat, having whole house generator serviced this week, topped off in-ground propane tanks and will fill gas and diesel cans Tuesday or Wednesday.  Me being ready for it always means it goes somewhere else, so you guys are welcome

might want to do the gas sooner black
you know how it gets down here with the amateurs
so wensday it could be ugly at the pumps already?

Since you're all prepared and have nothing to do, you can come over and help clean out my garage.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  14...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017

Corrected to add west in motion paragraph

...IRMA MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 44.6W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Irma.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 44.6 West. Irma is moving a
little south of due west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Irma is currently a small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds
extending outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 70 miles
(110 km). However, the hurricane is expected to grow in size during
the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  14NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017

Hurricane Irma continues to display an eye within a small central
dense overcast, although the eye has been going through periods
where it becomes less well defined.  The satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 90 kt, while the latest CIMMS
ADT and satellite consensus technique estimates ARE 95-105 KT.
Since there has been little overall change in organization since
the last advisory, the initial intensity remains 95 kt.

The environment in which Irma is embedded continues to show mixed
signals during the forecast period, and the intensity guidance
responds to this by ranging between little and slow intensification.
The hurricane is currently suffering some impact of sea surface
temperatures of about 27C and mid-level dry air entrainment.  Later
in the period, Irma should encounter warmer water and increasing
moisture at a time when the vertical wind shear may be increasing.
Given the uncertainty on when all of the ingredients may come
together, the new intensity forecast is the same as the previous
forecast and calls for gradual intensification through the next
5 days.  An alternative forecast scenario is that Irma gets
significantly stronger than forecast near the end of the forecast
period if the shear is less than currently expected.

The initial motion remains 265/13.  A large and building subtropical
ridge should steer Irma generally west-southwestward during the next
two days or so.  Between 72-120 h, Irma should be rounding the
southwestern periphery of the ridge and start turning back toward
the west-northwest.  While the track guidance remains in good
agreement with this scenario, from 72-120 h there has been a
westward shift of the guidance that results in the new forecast
track coming 30-60 n mi closer to the Leeward and Virgin Islands
than in the previous advisory.  This latter portion of the track
lies near the center of the guidance envelope,  but with the ECMWF
and corrected consensus models to the south and the GFS to the
north.

While Irma is currently a small hurricane, the size guidance
suggests it should grow in size during the next 72 h.  This will
affect how soon watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward
and Virgin Islands.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves closer to
the Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip
currents.  Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify
where and when those hazards could occur.  Residents in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and
listen to any advice given by local officials.

2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will
have on the Bahamas and the continental United States.  Regardless,
everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

just did my mothers  still got all the plastic bags in the trunk
have a heart
but where are you?

you might have to cover my retreat I stare right at the atlantic

Just hit Home Depot for a few things, they're already dropping pallets of water, duct tape and tarps. They're also out of shutter wing nuts at my local HD.

I'm not too worried about it here in Lakeland, but I am worried for those along the coasts.

Let's hope this thing takes a sharp turn north.

Head north, head north, head north......

11pm Update:

Looks identical to the 5pm. 

Lol.

Ahh man we need updates every two hours....lol .

Could hit FL but odds are she's gonna hit somebody in the US...Not good, she's gonna be nasty once she hits the warm Caribbean waters.

We will get gas today but do nothing else yet.

It only takes a few hours for the rest.

Still making Keys plans for Sept. 10 through 16.

We are flexible.

If you have a freezer make plenty of ice a few days before...can never have two much ice when power goes out for a week and warm beer is bad.

A pork chop in every bottle...

I have 20 gals of gas going to get 10 more today, 8 propane tanks. Honda 3000 is will run on gas and propane. I had a new outside electrical panel installed last year with a plug or the generator. Honda is only 120 so not all sockets will work. A/C , Hot Water Heater and clothes dryer breakers will remain off.
We were out of power 5 days with Wilma and the old generator kept the refrigerator running lost no food.
I do need to get another fan.  
Just got done warming up the generator and moving about 40 10 lb landscape blocks. Prepare now too late after it hits.
Tomorrow get all my ammo together for looter welcoming.

What are the landscape blocks for? Tarp weights?

11 am update put Irmagerd back to the east again. Like offshore.

Frontline in Fl. running from sw to ne should drop south and force

Irma to go between the frontline and the atlantic high pressure.

Carolinas at high risk.  My take, not a meteorologist.  

I know Irma is seriously going to suck for someone, but holy shit Irmagerd is funny.

Your guess is as good as theirs, or better even.

Jose (the one behind Irma) is the one I'm worried about.

Geez, let me do this one first.

If my wife doesn't get Sept 10 = 16 in the Keys she is going to be hard to live with.

I go to Looe Key resort about twice a year...Ramrod Key at 27.5 mm...most of those trips I pull a boat down and hire a taxi down to Duval st. just to say I did...for the last 30 some years

Many other cool areas in south Fl. to stop in...but the Fl Keys are pretty much the top...Ten thousand islands are cool but hard to find your way around

Tampa bay has improved in the last 30 years but has a lot of boat pressure ...I only fish...Tuesday till Friday.


a hurricane hitting just above St . Pete or Tarpon Springs would push a crap lot of water up in Tampa Bay and we are in the same boat as Houston...we have been lucky 60 plus years