In reading the reason(s) given by the FBI for the switch from .40 to 9mm I found myself nodding my head in disapproval.  An article in Swatmag.com writes:

But with the advent of vastly improved 9x19mm ammunition and the successful testing of the Speer 147-grain G2 Gold Dot JHP, the Bureau decided to return to the nine. In fact, the FBI Defensive Systems Unit considers it the best round they’ve ever tested and favor it over the .40 S&W and .45 ACP.

For anyone who has ever worked in the Federal Government or the military know how the bureaucrats love to "testi-lie" wherein they take the facts that they want to convey and present them in a way that isn't quite a lie, but is a twist of the facts.  Did the FBI Defensive Systems Unit really say that the 9mm is "the best round that they've ever tested," or is it more accurate to say that it is the best round that they tested that met the parameters of what the bureaucrats wanted.  If the bosses want cheaper and easier to deploy they can certainly give those values a higher weight and the test results will show the lighter recoil round to be "the best they've ever tested."

For the FBI, for any police agency, you're going to always be dealing with cops who are gun fanatics and who only shoot the minimum.  Some of these Joes and Janes might be recoil sensitive and/or maybe just don't have a lot of practice and coordination dealing with muzzle flip and getting back on target.  There are a lot of reasons why this gun makes sense for a law enforcement agency: lower cost of ammo, lower cost to train, low-trainged agents who are more accurate with their fire, and of course the obvious advantages like a higher mag capacity.

But lets be honest, is the 9mm the best out there?  If you are well trained and can put rounds on target with a .40, .45, 10mm, etc., would one of those not be a better choice?  I'm seeing a LOT of threads here and on other sites and many Youtube videos with folks explaining that because the FBI has switched to 9mm, it is the best.  But best for a low-trained cop isn't necessarily the best for a gun fanatic who can accurately shoot a larger caliber.

In these arguments there seems to be a huge disconnect with basic physics.  I saw one Youtube guy who explained that the only thing the .45 does better than a 9mm is make a bigger hole and he went on to explained that this isn't helpful at all.  WTF?  If you get rounds that pass through the bad guy completely and one is expanded to 1" and the other to .60" then the larger slug is certainly going to have a higher chance of clipping the spine, hitting an artery, the heart, busting a rib, etc.  I've read a lot of studies that show the 9mm is just as effective as the larger rounds in stopping bad guys and I can't help but wonder if that is because most people aren't well-trained shooters and they ARE more accurate with a 9mm?

So I'll concede that a 9mm IS probably the best choice for an untrained shooter but I have a tough time believing that a smaller hole works as good as a big hole.  At pistol caliber velocity we know that hydro-static shock is a myth and all we're really doing is punching holes.  If you had a choice to have an iron rod rammed through your chest would you prefer 1" or .60"?

Paul Harrell regularly compares different calibers and he is just as fast with a .40 as with a .45 and his example (jump to 13:50) pretty much negates the argument that lighter is "faster" if you're a well trained shot and have experience with the muzzle flip of the caliber you train and carry with.

And if you are well trained and you shoot well, I don't think you're necessarily at a disadvantage with a 9mm over a 10mm because I DO believe you'll be able to get more shots on target using a 9mm if that's what you've trained with.  But for those of us who can put .45 rounds on paper as fast as someone else with a 9mm, the FBI's claims suggest that I would be better suited to drop down to a lighter caliber.

Am I the only one who doesn't buy this logic and think this is more about politics and economics?

Bottom line: I think this isn't about choosing the most lethal handgun, its about choosing the handgun that you can get the largest larger number of people competent in its use.  If that works for them great but I very much disagree with the trend I'm seeing in the gun community that we should all switch to 9mm because it has magical properties that come from its selection by the Bureau.

Data from actual shootings show no real difference in the effectiveness of the 38/9/40/45 calibers.

http://www.activeresponsetraining.net/an-alternate-look-at-handgun-stopping-power

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nycYxb-zNwc

They aren't choosing anything based on lethality. Are calibers are equally lethal.

The objective is to stop the bad guy, so incapacitation is what matters.

LE does not intend to kill. Intending to kill is murder. LE just wants to stop the bad guy. If the bad guy dies, that can happen when they are shot.

It’s about having more chances, less perceived recoil and smaller grip for wider variety of hands.

You seem to be suggesting this is a negative but it seems like solid logic to me. How about you produce data that shows some kind of big improvement over 9mm? Why are there so many high end groups that choose 9mm when they could have whatever they want.

I think its a $$ thing.  the USG has purchased a metric ton of 9mm throughout the GWOT and now the wars are over.  As budgets across the USG are slashed, training ammo that has already been paid for and is already in the system is the logical solution.

Interesting video, so everyone should carry a .454 if SHTF. I got that covered.  

Seriously thou, I think most if not all ABC agencies are / have switched to 9mm.
I spoke to an agent last year, his agency had already made the switch.

It's a reading comprehension thing. The 9mm is the best round they tested because it's

- Easier on guns which means less maintenance
- Less expensive
- Effective enough
- Easier to shoot for the small statutes so less remedial training

The shift to 9mm was led by the gun guys at FBI, because the training day can be longer with a lighter recoiling gun and their budget was annoyed at having to rebuild Glock 22s completely as often as you have to replace G19 magazine springs.

What about shooting bad guys behind cover? Penetration matters. No matter how often I hear it's dying, I'm still convinced 357 sig makes sense.

There is very little “cover” that is cover from 9x19 but not 357 Sig. The latter does a little better through autobodies but it’s not worth the damage to guns, the noise, the capacity loss, the expense. Now, if you want that performance a purpose built Glock in 9x23 would be cool.

It's called training to the lowest common denominator. And yes with advancements in projectile technology 9mm is adequate, not the best but adequate.

This

The benefits of 9mm aren’t just for weak shooters. Strong shooters also benefit from a 30% longer training day with lighter calibers.

People keep talking about the advancement in 9mm projectiles as if those exact same advancements haven't happened with 40, 45, etc.

All handgun rounds are going to be a compromise between capacity, grip size, stopping power, controlability, etc. There is a reason that all pistols aren't chambered in 50 BMG. The 9mm isn't the most lethal of handgun rounds, but it is the best round given everything they considered.

If the eff bee eye completely fucked themselves in some manor,
that would make me happy.

Q predicted this.

They haven’t though. The increase in expanded diameter isn’t in proportion to the starting diameter.

Only fast hits matter.
More potential fast hits with 9mm
I’ve also personally gel tested, with various barriers, the big offerings of 9 40 45 and as a result carry a 9…

I agree, it is solid logic and probably makes sense for this and other agencies.  Not saying its a negative, for that department.  But does it make sense for someone to limit themselves to 9mm when they could be just as competent in a stronger caliber?  Hmm.... with these ammo prices, maybe, today, the answer is no.

Have you done the math? I think HST .45s open up prit near to an inch.

But even with the .40 and .45 being a little more effective it's not by a lot and then we're back the maintenance and qual scores.

The 9mm is good enough. And that's not implying that it's just barely good enough.

I do personally prefer a little more oomph but I'm more worried about moose and bears than people.

The HST is the rock star in .45 and averages mid .8X”  when most loads barely exceed that 9 and 40 get. All things being equal a larger bullet is going to have better terminal effect yes, but like you said it’s a small difference.

And yes the program as a whole will be better with 9mm and that counts for more.

We've been through this a bunch, especially when this was announced.

They fudged the numbers. Doesn't mean they are wrong, but they claimed that 9mm rounds penetrate as deeply and expand to an equivalent diameter as .40SW and .45 ACP duty. That is farcical and was false. Still, 9mm offers a lot in a duty sized weapon with modern ammo. Maybe more than you are getting out of .45 ACP, especially as it is hard to get capacity and velocity up in .45 without leaving a lot of shooters behind.

I think, objectively, 40SW is a far better round for trained shooters, but their point, and data, seems to suggest that most LE isn't all that highly trained. I think in a few years there will be a new .40 or .41 caliber semi auto caliber released, and everyone will get back on that bandwagon.

People always think the latest choice is the worst choice.

I guess I'm confused then because your thread title claims you don't buy their rationale but then you say you understand why they did it and that it makes sense.

What round do you think they should use?

Wuddle hands, ... weak wrists, ... woke ballistics.

Pretty much 'plains it.

Yeah, that's it. That must be why USSOCOM still uses 9mm along with their 40 and 45.

Sorry if my original post wasn't clear enough.

If I ran a 10,000 person police agency I'd probably go 9mm.  Some of the women and guys with smaller hands are never going to be able to be very comfortable with a double stack .45.  And if 'most' of the people can be competent with the 9mm whereas only some or 'most' on the .40 then the 9mm is the best choice for that police department.

But lets be honest, they went with 9mm and not .40 not because of ballistics but because the Glock in .40 wears out too quickly because the slide was created for a 9mm.  The FBI chose the weaker round because of economics.

It is my experience (and I don't think I'm alone in this opinion) 'most' cops are not competent at all with their sidearm.  So the rationale that 9mm is 'best' for a large department doesn't necessarily translate to the gun community where many are more than competent and many are experts in pistol shooting.  

I seem to see that there is a new myth floating about that one can put more rounds on target quicker with a 9mm than with a .45 or 10mm.  This is certainly true for someone who doesn't train regularly with a .45 but I personally know a lot of guys who can shoot their .45 much (MUCH) faster, and more accurately than 'most' Joes who have a 9mm.  

9mm is probably best for a police department, but I don't think we should steer people to "go 9" because they can't master a .40, .45, or 10mm.  

I believe that how the Federal Government sold their new caliber was dishonest.  They didn't sell it as "best for them," they sold it as "the best caliber ever."

I think we should encourage shooters to choose the largest caliber that they can be competent in, not in the caliber that a police agency chose for expediency.

I agree with that, but you have to remember who 95%  of FBI hires are. They aren't 'gun folks' and may never ever have fired one.

They're not necessarily lately transfers from PDs or other Fed agencies either. Most have no Mil service. Then there are the forensic 'hair & fiber' people, along with the CPA and attorney agents. All degreed professionals, not the same as the guys who make up USSOCOM, let alone the special Mil units like SEALs, etc.

Are the type of people the FBI recruits and hires firearms trainable? Sure, but they're not training all the time and most of their training is directed to satisfying the Bureau's bi-annual, standardized qualification ritual which the FTU administers.

Outside of the Bureau's specializes 'SWAT'/HRT units, which constitute a minuscule percentage of all their agents, just training them to a level where they can competently manipulate and shoot a 9mm pistol is likely the best the Bureau can hope for.

The .40 made that harder, and the diluted 10mm cartridge which preceded it, while ballistically identical, required a large frame gun (S&W 1076), as did the .45s (Sig 220s) that were authorized during that era. The large steel guns were heavy and difficult to conceal under a suit, which is the 'uniform' of field agents, and the FTU heard loud and long about that.

The 9mm-sized G22s and G23s the FBI adopted later were lighter than the earlier steel guns, but the .40's "snappy" recoil generated complaints too, which again gets you back to the basic problem: the type of hires the FTU has to work with and get trained.

Dude, focus: it's called sarcastic humor.

And by the way, you're average SOCOM-er ain't the same as your average Bureau field agent.

If you re-read what you posted, you may see the gaps / big assumptions in your logic.

What you people aren’t getting is that the HRT led the FBI to 9mm.

An LAPD firearms instructor, on another forum, wrote that he reviews shootings from all the agencies in LA County.  Departments authorize 9mm, .40, 357 SIG and .45 ACP.  He has yet to see a shooting where caliber made a difference.

9mm= cheaper than .40 cal
9mm=more rounds in the mag

Best in their case isn’t solely on one shot stop percentage.


Combination of adequate ballistics to ward the one shop stop
Shootability and Training Ease for passing quals with better scores and less qual failures
Cost


Cost is most likely the driver as long as it is adequate on the street.


I don’t think they are declaring 9mm bests 10mm, 40, .45, .357 ballistically.  

And we know this how?  Because of the FBI press release and carefully crafted a narrative.

Call me skeptical but I don't buy it.  Its a lovely narrative that was written for public consumption.

I know a member here who trains with HRT somewhat regularly. He gave me the secondhand briefing.

HRT used Hi Powers for a long time.

it's so FBI Barbie can qualify

.

Not to mention the agent 'Mulder & Scully' types who, while highly competent in the specialized fields for which they were hired, come to the Bureau as complete non-gun people.

So what caliber would you pick and how much better is it than 9mm?

Or just rechamber a 9mm to 356 TSW.

356 TSW

Actually, it'd be even simpler to just re-barrel a 10mm Glock 20 to 9x25 Dillon, which was the first "9mm" cartridge to ever put a pair of hairy nads on the minimeter.

The abject lack of practical ballistic knowledge among American gun owners is stunning.  From the long rang hunting crowd that thinks it’s ethically viable to shoot at a deer 1500M away to the tactical Timmy trying to appendix carry a a 40 cal Roland Special and 6 mags…neither of which are competent to even articulate how, when, why, and under what circumstances their chosen tools are applicable.  


I generally oppose mandatory training as a form of gun control, but I’m starting to think a shooting test and a simple written test should be mandatory.  


9 is perfectly fine.  It works great and the pistols run reliably.

I read that as 9mm is best for a large group, from non shooters, through small woman, to the marginally trained, to gun guys.

I DON"T read that as "9mm is the best".

I cling to 45 ACP because I have shot enough living critters with handgun cartridges, including 9 mm to have personal experience...this sounds gruesome...in watching how long it takes for an animal to die. Think coyotes on a trapline, or injured deer on the side of the road.

If it weren't for the recoil, I would carry a 10mm all the time. As it is, I do carry a 10 mm in the deep cold, when scum bags might be wearing thick coats.

I have never found a 45 ACP to be harsh in recoil, even in compact guns (I carry a Colt New Agent often).

I think that the "Glock 19 with 15 rounds is everything!" crowd is lulled into a weak cartridge because of capacity, studies like this, and the shooting games like IDPA and Steel Challenge. Of course I can score higher in those games with a low recoiling pistol. If those targets had to stop fighting before we moved on to the next target our scores would be way different. And heavier calibers would be in the winners circle more often.

Also....all handgun loads kinda suck at taking the fight out of a bad guy. Grab a rifle.

Or the 9mm Super Cooper. It produced 9X25 ballistics before there was the 9X25. . . .  but we digress.  And the Super Cooper never made it past the wildcat stage.

Or just shoot 9 Major.

Acquisitions doesn't work like that.  Each agency is responsible for managing their own budgets.  There is no pool of training ammo to pull from, purchase orders are made through GSA approved vendors for everything.  The FBI found a better performance to dollar caliber than what they were using.

25 plus working the road and I have shot scores of car hit deer.  You can try for that light switch shot to the brain and I have dispatched many that way that were DRT there.   Unfortunately even with the correct shot placement I can say not all went on their way as soon as I would like.   Sometimes I would use a second or even a rare third shot to flip the switch.  It didn’t always work, not exactly sure why, hitting brain but not brain stem that controlled motor function, was my belief.  If it seemed to keep going despite me knowing there was no brain activity left I would double lung shoot them for exanguination.   Uncomfortable topic for sure.  Animals (including humans) can be unpredictable in all things.  Most hunters don’t think about it as they usually see a DRT there (or at least a drop and then dead by the time they got to the deer’s location)  or it ran off pumping it’s life blood out to die out of site before being found.  

I supervised the firearms unit for my department for 10 years.  I got the FBI Ballistics CD they produce about every other year.  In 2015 we conducted a pistol evaluation.  Just before the evaluation my Captain had attended the FBI's Executive Leadership Academy and was pushing hard to switch from our P2000 40 cals to a 9mm pistol.  I honestly didn't mind the 40 and we had around 100,000 rounds in inventory when I started the evaluation.  With the Captain finishing up the FBI class and my office was in DC, he was able to get me a one on one meeting with the FBI Firearms Unit in Quantico.  We can all complain about the FBI but their Firearms Unit stopped everything they were doing and sat down with me mister nobody Sergeant for over two hours.  I came in with a list of questions and hit them with everything I could think of.  One of the main questions I had was why does HRT have 45's and you are telling everyone else to switch to 9mm.  The answer was the HRT had completed transition to 9mm in 2015 by the time I had my meeting with them.  Two FBI agents in the meeting said they were in the Firearms unit when they had the HRT switch to the 45 from the 9mm Novak HiPowers because at that time back then the 9mm rounds tested were not as effective as the 45.  After lots of back on forth about their pistol ammo evaluations they concluded that the FBI Firearms Unit tests rounds all year long in an attempt to find the best round available.  Then they select a firearm around that caliber.  So I asked would they possibly switch away from 9mm at some point.  They said whenever a firearms contract is up for negotiation they determine what round is best at the time and will solicit another weapon based on that round.  

Reading the ballistics data they had at the time, the Winchester Ranger bonded 40 cal round was the only handgun round they had test fired where every round they fired met the test protocols.  That was around 2008.  I can't remember the exact distances but all handgun rounds were tested at something like 10 feet and 20 yards.  At some point after 2012, the ballistics data CD I was receiving stopped showing 20 yard data with each round tested.   The Speer Gold dot G2 was the second handgun round tested where all of the rounds fired met the testing protocols.  So the FBI solicited an ammo contract for G2 and I bought ammo on that contract for our department.  David

Our experience is similar (I am not in law enforcement though). A brain shot is final....even with a .22 short.

My experience, as distasteful as it may sound was based on a number of times when I tried "heart lung" on an already trapped or injured animal. I have done it with every reasonable handgun round;.22, .32, .380. .38, .357, 9mm, .45 Colt and ACP, 10 mm. No .357 SIG though, I don't own one. I've done it with hardball and carry ammo.

.357, .45, and 10 mm are the best by far, if the measure is how fast the critter dies.