Are there going to be any noticable differences between the lengths at 200 and under,
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ABSOLUTELY no noticeable difference whatsoever.
Unless you're in the military or MAYBE LEO, the fragmentation discussion is WAAAY overblown. Very VERY few of us could even have the REMOTEST possibility of defending themselves beyond 100 yards, and even then, the 5.56 doesn't magically go from explosive megaprojectile to pinhole punching wussy bullet at 2699fps.
Azalin's points about the flash suppressor and free float handguards are valid. But if you get a flash suppressor you like, that's one down already. There are several options for railed handguards that don't float the barrel and don't require any disassembly for installation, and there's even a couple of free floating ones that go on without removing the FSB.
I had a 14.5", and replaced it with a 16" mid-length. I'm very happy with my middie, but I should have listened to the age-old ARFCOM advice.... "GET BOTH!"
I personally like the 14.5" in a carbine, and a 16" in a middie... Looks, ya know?