Have you changed your mind at all about the possibility of SHTF actually happening?

I have to admit in the past I snickered at some people getting really worked up about it and LMAO pre Y2K.  But it does feel a little more likely now.  I gave it about a 5% chance of ever happening but I’d have to up that now.

Anybody else getting more serious?

.... well, I bought a surplus FEMA Civil Defense survey meter, (Geiger Counter) a dosimeter and some potassium iodide tablets today on the Internet.

Let me guess, Winston....KI4u.com?

... (ding) We have a Winner. Heck, sometimes I just don't have anything to buy [:D][:D][:D]

Yep, I did a couple of months ago, too. It's sort of hard to swallow the price tag of that  survey meter when you see the same model selling for under $20 on eBay, but having one that's been recently calibrated is a definite plus. Am also considering picking up a couple of dosimeters.

On a brighter note, new survey meters and biowarfare analyzers may eventually become as common and cheap as smoke detectors. Was reading an article earlier this week that said desktop-sized BW detectors could be out in about a year, with smoke-detector-sized models a couple of years after that. Research on those kind of things has really kicked into overdrive since 9-11.

Hell, if we were to send them damn aliens a packin, we wouldn't have to worry about SHTF.

Put them on a boat, and get them the hell out of here!!

Waterdog

... I hear that some folks are purchasing cheap canaries in NYC.

Good idea!

... Unless of course you HATE birds!

canaries, eh?

SHTF is actually my middle name, it was passed down to me by my forefathers who were ministers of paranoia to the last Czar.

i always chuckle at the perspective play that occurred; Sep. 10, i was a "survivalist kook", sep 11, around lunch time, i became "sensibly prepared". what a joke most people are! the best part is, while all those who pointed fingers and laughed scrambled around to buy up gas masks and MRE's, i just casually went hunting, hiking, my life hasn't changed one bit, while most around me are getting grey hairs by the dozen!

...he who laughs last, i believe the saying goes?

LA Riots

Hurricane Andrew in south FL

When I saw that the S did HTF, I woke up to the possibilities

I'm not worried, I have _complete_ and utter faith in the (non)elected leaders of MA to protect me. [rolleyes]

Didn't change my perspective, but it helped change my wife's.

Paranoid: A guy that worries about things that probably won't happen and are beyond his/her control.

Prepared: A guy who plans for situations which might occur which are beyond his/her control.

What's the difference here?

The difference is whether or not something actually happens to you. We are considered by some paranoid until a situation like the LA riots happen. Then of course, the folks who called us paranoid come over and ask for some can goods or a spare shotgun.

Personal security is just that "personal". If having a few MRE's or spare can goods or even a 1000 or so extra bullets on hand makes you feel better, just do it. You can always eat up the food, shoot up the ammo and no one gets hurt.

But if the worst case does play out "OH WELL $UCKS TO BE THEM"

When several city blocks of Washington DC got burned out in a riot, that woke me up. The year was 1968 I think...

Yeah,

before 9/11 I was kinda looney, stocking up on ammo, gun collection, generator, gas masks, H2O filtration, etc.  Since then I am daily asked by someone where to get gas masks, ammo, which gun to buy, blah blah.  Got in trouble when the wife asked why we only had one gas mask, of course my reply was "well that one is your's Hun, mine is on backorder"...

All abt perspective I guess.

Why?  Because we're at war?  Can you really call what we're doing right now a "war"?  I don't think so... what we're doing is beating the crap out of a 4th world nation who is totally defenseless against our military might.  It's a good ole fashioned ass kicking (which they well deserve).

We've been at war before and with an enemy who equaled or exceeded our own might.  Was this the prelude to the now infamous "SHTF" scenario playing out?  Nope.

The whole SHTF theory has been postulated by a bunch of armchair commando's who relish the idea of the movie Red Dawn playing out in real life.  It's never been a practical theory and it's certainly no more plausible today than it was 10, 20, 50 or 100 years ago.  Actually, as we progress forward, with each new year the possibility of a complete failure of our government and society becomes significantly less.

What on Earth do you envision happening that would cause the collapse of our government?  What do you think happened recently that has significantly increased the probability of this event taking place? Anthrax?  Laugh... hardly enough.  Smallpox?  Already hit the US along with Polio and others but we managed to survive.  Now that we've advanced 100 fold since the last outbreak, why do you think we're less prepared today than we were then?

Just curious.

P.S. SHTF is a fantasy created by people that actually WANT it to happen so they can play soldier or survivalist.

And you've used these items exactly how many times?  Just because people panic and race out to buy "survival gear" doesn't decrease the lunacy required to believe our entire government will collapse in our lifetime thereby allowing you to make use of your collection of toys.  The people racing out to buy guns and gas masks will wind up selling them for a loss on eBay in 90 days... [b]when nothing else happens[/b].

Even using the cited examples above, how long did it take before order was restored?  Hell, a meteor could wipe out an entire state and inside of a month order would be restored.  Little blips such as the LA riots (we've forgotten the Watts riots already) or Andrew aren't very good examples.

Anyone who has some extra canned food and a rifle are adequately prepared for every "SHTF" situation that's happened so far, including those cited above... which is about 65% or more of the population.

i admire your optimism, but you are not entirely correct.



that's because the enemy was never [b]among[/b] us.



again, the enemy was never so intertwined in our society



i disagree, with each new law that is passed that threatens my Constitution, i believe the threat of a collapse, in the form of a second Civil War, [b]increases[/b] daily.



how about everyone in the government getting the pox? getting nuked?



did you [b]EVER[/b] envision the NYC skyline without the WTC??? no? that didn't make it [b]impossible[/b], that made it [b]improbable[/b]. if i knew what was going to happen next, and prepared for it, would i still be an "armchair-commando"?



p.s., don't for one minute think that just because there may be a few of these "types" around, that everyone who owns an MRE is like that.

let me ask you how you would prepare for the unimaginable (but NEVER impossible) scenario of the city you work in getting quaranteened due to a germ release, after losing power, because the near-by nuke plant was  flattened somehow. now, upon answering that, do you feel that i have the right to judge you and call you names based on generalizations?

They weren't little blips if you lived through them

all that means is that they won't have them [b]IF[/b] needed. again, just because [b]your[/b] mind cannot envision the case does not irradicate [b]ALL[/b] possibilities.



so what's your point? if i own a gun, i'm ok, but if i own an MRE, i'm a Red-Dawn-hoping-armchair commando??? c'mon, what's your beef here, exactly???

Wgunn/Fattym4....Guys take a break.

As I tried to point out in my last post here this whole concept of the SHTF scenario is one of "Personal Security".

Given where I live, I don't see the need for a gas mask, gieger counter or some other bio-warfare detector YET. But that is my personal belief. I have set my level of Personal Security below this mark. I don't flame anyone who feels they want a more stepped up program than I do. This is America, if you can afford and it isn't illegal then more power to you.

As far a a generator goes, I actually would like one....we lose power a couple times a year where I live and some of the outages last over 24 hrs.

WGunn....You seem to think the goverment has this terrorism all sorted out and any other incidents that occur will sorted out quickly. I have chatted with a friend who was in the CIA (no $hit....he really was) and he was very quick to point out our superpower goverment is writing this new playbook as it develops. There was really no plan for this scenario. I aggree the goverment should be able to sort out most domestic situations within a month. BUT that might be a very scary month or so for the civilians caught up in the situation.

I can act the macho part in a bad scenario, but my wife and kids may not. I say again where ever you have set the bar for your personal security, Stick with the plan and don't listen to anyone. You may be right. The difference between being prepared and being paranoid is what actually does end up happening.

And how are you defining the enemy?  Their skin color?  Their religion?  For being so entrenched in our society they certainly have been curiously quiet.  Why aren't there shootings by these heavily entrenched enemies?  Where are the car bombs?  That's because not every Arab or Muslim is really our enemy as you seem to think.

But during WWII we certainly had plenty of Japanese and German immagrants fresh of the boat running around.  I would say Germans had entrenched themselves pretty heavily in our society by the time hostilities broke out in both World Wars.  

Your comments have little to no merit.


That's your view.  People have been predicting the end of the world since biblical times and others, like yourself, have been predicting the second civil war every since the first one ended.  It's not going to happen in your life time or your children's, and that's a [b]FACT[/b].

Ever heard of a "vaccine"?  And we're no closer to getting "nuked" and that "nuking" wiping out every vestige of our government today than we were during the height of the cold war.  

The WTC and Pentagon getting hammered by aircraft didn't usher in Armageddon either, did they?  Matter of fact, there was no "SHTF" activities during these events, where there?  Do you think your MRE and gas mask would have saved you if you had been in the towers?  I think not.

I own MRE's but not because I'm preparing for the collapse of civilization...

Nope.  If I get quarantined I'll do as they ask.  I'll take my medicine and go home.  I won't "bug out" or start shooting every "gumbberment" agent I see either.

Fortunately for us the CIA isn't the agency who will respond to these actions, if they do occur.  I've never said further terrorist attacks won't happen, I fully believe they will.  But just as Israel, England, Ireland, and every other country who is plagued by terrorism survives without "SHTF" taking place, we will too.  No, America isn't accustomed to being the target of terrorist attacks.  But our people are extremely resilient and resourceful... at least as much or more so than citizens of those countries mentioned above are.

Why do you feel American's are less hardy than, say, Israelis are?  I have more faith than that in our people and government... sorry.

It pays to be prepared.  Witness the Federal Govt and its minions saying the antraks incident was just a fluke of nature and isolated.  Those folks are more in the dark than we are, and they are suppose to know.  Congress is now discussing a law so that in the future of outbreaks people can be isolated to in order to contain future contagious diseases.

Who are you, Nostrodamus Jr?  You can predict the future?  You know for a [b]FACT[/b] things that will/wont happen in the next 150 years? Im sorry, but anyone who makes a claim like this is easy to discredit. You need to learn the difference between whats fact and whats opinion.  BTW, do you think the citizens of the Roman Empire ever entertained even for a second that their civilization would be dissolved.  I would bet they didnt. Neither you, nor I, nor anyone can pretend that they know the fate of our country or humankind in general.  Anyone who considers their opinion of the future to be FACT is in serious need of a reality check.

WGunn....Please!!!!

1. Do you really think the CIA isn't doing something in response to these actions?

2. What is your concept of SHTF?
I think any action that paralizes a city, town or state for more than a couple of weeks could classify. I do aggree the probability of total goverment collapse won't happen.

3.I too have faith in the American people. I believe us to be a very hardy lot. But I have more faith in our people than I do in our goverment. Remember the LA riots (I know you don't like that example) the police pulled out and left the people fend for themselves.

4. The whole point is "Personal Security". If one feels they need a gas mask, geiger counter, or bomb shelter FINE. I may not aggree with them but this is there choice and not my business.

don't put words in my mouth, i never once, in any thread said the word arab...YOU did. also, i don't have the answers to these questions, NOBODY does.



yes, those german's who alligned themselves with germany left, and we all know the unpleasantness that the japanes recieved at the time, i was niether alive nor a policy maker then.  



well, what crystal ball do you have? why didn't you see the destruction of the WTC, mr. FACT???



that crystal ball sure is powerful, isn't it?




no, but a parachute would have! if everyone was like ME, they would have survived! if everyone was a finger-pointer like you, they would be dead. and yes, the Shyt [b]DID[/b] hi the fan, for an hour or so ~ people here didn't know if there would be 100 more planes falling or not! so, they sealed the city shut, trapping everyone inside for an undisclosed period of time. how do i know? I WAS HERE WHEN IT HAPPENED! it must easy for you [b]arm-chair analysts[/b] with 20/20 hindsight to judge those involved from the sanctity of whatever backwater you live in, because you were not here.



then why do you own them?



good for you! maybe i will do as asked also! how would you know what i will do? i think you are confusing material preparedness with something else, what? i wouldn't know. i'm not the bunker-owning-can't-wait-to-start-shooting-type that you have me pegged to be. again, i must ask you not to group me into whatever sick stereotype you have! i'm not that guy! i am a realist. why do i have MRE's? WHY DO WE HAVE MARINES????

They won't take action domestically, as in quell riots or have anything to do with a SHTF scenario.  You misunderstood me.

If your a member of a typical family you'll have a rifle and at least a weeks worth of food stashed away already.  I have more food sitting around my house than I know what to do with... and not because I've planned it that way.

Yeah, and I watched as armed citizens protected stores and homes.  Like I already said, most gun owning families are already prepared for such an event.  

Just like in Watt's, I'm all for the police pulling out of a riot area and setting up a parameter.  Let the stupid bastards burn their own stores down and loot their "brothers" businesses.  No skin off my ass.  Just keep it from spreading.  It will eventually burn out, as it did in both the Watts and LA riots.  Plus armed citizens will thin their ranks out with gun fire.

I'm all for personal security.  I'm not a believer in the whole "SHTF" (i.e. Armageddon, end times, government collapse, second civil war) theory.

My SHTF stash looks a lot like the Hurricane Checklist I got from Home Depot a month or so back.  Granted I've added a few things, but other than those few things, the lists are identical.

wgunn, SHTF isn't necessarily about some scene from Rambo or Under Seige.  It's any event that causes a breakdown of normal society and social services.  The Watts and LA riots sure as hell stopped normal life in parts of LA.  A hurricane certainly does as well.  An earthquake would too.  FEMA themselves suggest having at least 3 days worth of food and water for each member of your family in case of a disaster because it generally takes them at least 3 days to get in and mop up.  This is from their own frickin literature!

You have insurance on your home/car(s)/life don't you?  Why?  Because something might happen.  That's why I have a Bug Out Bag and a stash of other supplies.  I don't have anything like gas masks or that stuff because I doubt they'll be effective when needed and there's no way to know for sure you need one until it's probably too late.  If the canary in that cage is keeling over because of a toxin, chances are you are too.

Semper Paratus!

God Bless Texas

To me preparing for a SHTF is not about combat.  It's about maintaining a lifestyle for my family that I deem pleasant in case the normal societal network fails.  This can be as minor as a bad storm that kills my electricity for some days, or as bad as a severe depression (shortages of goods, especially fuel).

You are not even close to being prepared if all you have for a SHTF is combat gear.  Weapons are a small part of preparedness.  If you have a full compliment of combat gear, you'll find that the most used piece of gear will be your canteen...

I work in a federal building that is across the street from the State Dept. and I walk past the World Bank and International Monetery Fund buildings that are within 1 block of the White House everyday while going from my office to the Metro station where I spend 35-40 minutes on an underground public transportation system, but I'm not in any danger unless the entire government completely collapses.

Gee, thanks.  I feel so much safer now.  [rolleyes]

I agree there are a lot of people like that but I wasn't going that far.  Well, maybe I was, I wanted to know how far or how many people have actually [b] [i] Moved farther down that road [/i] [/b]so to speak.



I personally wasn't going that far either but I do agree with GodBlessTexas' mentality.  I don't see the whole country going to shit any time soon but I don't see anything wrong with making "staying home for a few days" more comfortable.

I have the AR because it's too fuckin cool.  [:)]