Wow...not good.

HH
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Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession

Monday February 26, 8:34 am ET  

Alan Greenspan Warns That U.S. Economy May Slip Into Recession by End of Year


HONG KONG (AP) -- Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned Monday that the American economy might slip into recession by year's end.
He said the U.S. economy has been expanding since 2001 and that there are signs the current economic cycle is coming to an end.

"When you get this far away from a recession invariably forces build up for the next recession, and indeed we are beginning to see that sign," Greenspan said via satellite link to a business conference in Hong Kong. "For example in the U.S., profit margins ... have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we are in the later stages of a cycle."

"While, yes, it is possible we can get a recession in the latter months of 2007, most forecasters are not making that judgment and indeed are projecting forward into 2008 ... with some slowdown," he said.

Greenspan said that while it would be "very precarious" to try to forecast that far into the future, he could not rule out the possibility of a recession late this year.

The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong 3.5 percent rate in the fourth quarter of 2006, up from a 2 percent rate in the third quarter. A survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics showed that experts predict economic growth of 2.7 percent this year, the slowest rate since a 1.6 percent rise in 2002.

Greenspan also warned that the U.S. budget deficit, which for 2006 fell to $247.7 billion, the lowest in four years, remains a concern.

"The American budget deficit is clearly a very significant concern for all of us that are trying to evaluate both the American economy's immediate future and that of the rest of the world," he said via satellite at the VeryGC Global Business Insights 2007 Conference.

Greenspan also said he has seen no economic spillover effects from the slowdown in the U.S. housing market.

"We are now well into the contraction period and so far we have not had any major, significant spillover effects on the American economy from the contraction in housing," he said.

its just the same recession that he delayed a few years ago by lowering interest rates.


...eta: funny; I was just thinking about this a few days ago, its strange that it popped up in the news right after I thought about it.

I hate to say it, but GOOD.

Sometimes things have to get A LOT worse before they better.

A Hillary or Obama in office trying to put together national health care and taxing the crap out of people combined with an economic down turn and images on the news of homes of American gun owners being burned to the ground with terrorist bombers striking New York and DC might just wake up the folks in this country.

In other news, debt and credit abuse is at an all time high.


Could be ugly.

If the Dems raise taxes then a recession is a given.   Good thing I work for Uncle Sam as I don't have to worry about job cuts unlike Corporate America where things can be down right brutal.

"A Hillary or Obama in office trying to put together national health care and taxing the crap out of people combined with an economic down turn and images on the news of homes of American gun owners being burned to the ground with terrorist bombers striking New York and DC might just wake up the folks in this country."

Actually I think by then the American public will be so messed up they will by marshmellow to roast at the "gun owners being burned to the ground."

That and Anna nicole smith will still be on the news, as a religion.  

I think we'll be lucky if it's only a recession.

I have been thinking we are on the downslope for a couple of years.

Let's see, he bitched about the increase in the stock market a few years ago and drove it down. Of course he owned no stocks but all bonds that went up in value due to decline in interest rates as stocks went down.

He bitched about home price increases and nearly killed that market. Wonder if he is house looking.

He needs to STFU and crawl back into his hole.

Where's Frozenny?  I always like to hear his interpretation on these...what it means for us little guys.

And this is why the wife and I have been working our butts off for almost 2 years getting our debt down.  We should be debt free by the end of march, plus we have cash savings, silver, food storage, and are adding to all of them.

ETA:  We have no house though, we're renters...

Quoted: I think we'll be lucky if it's only a recession.

I agree.

Just look at the pickle the automakers are currently in right now, and the crazy cost of real estate....

When people can no longer afford new cars or homes to live in, we are in deep doggie doo.

I think a severe depression is looming just around the corner.

In the 30's debt was not owned by foreigners to the extent it is now;think if Hitler and Tojo owned Tbills.Then examine Chinas ownership of our debt now.

I completely despise this man. The data shows we are are already on the cusp of a recession and he KNOWS it. But, he is such a slime ball he says 'maybe', not we will or we are. This from the same guy who famously said you could not recognize a bubble until it had burst. He is a true piece of shiite.

Quoted: Quoted: I think we'll be lucky if it's only a recession. I agree. Just look at the pickle the automakers are currently in right now, and the crazy cost of real estate.... When people can no longer afford new cars or homes to live in, we are in deep doggie doo. I think a severe depression is looming just around the corner.

I agree as well

To add more tinfoil the discussion, What happens when China and other ME countries dump the dollar in favor of the Euro?  Massive inflation/devaluing of the dollar...

don't scoff at the suggestion, Russia's no friend of ours.  Middle Eastern countries practically own the US debt.  China, IMO, has built their empire from our desire of cheap goods and may decide they don't need the US consumer any more.  Not to mention, with the worthless dollar, American-manufactured goods would be dirt cheap for export.  We'd be at the mercy of other countries once again.

Quoted: Let's see, he bitched about the increase in the stock market a few years ago and drove it down. Of course he owned no stocks but all bonds that went up in value due to decline in interest rates as stocks went down. He bitched about home price increases and nearly killed that market. Wonder if he is house looking. He needs to STFU and crawl back into his hole.

Yeah the impending collapse of the housing market is all because of what he says.  It has nothing to do with all the greedy idiots who should be renting buying a house because "you can't lose" and "everyone is doing it".  It has nothing to do with severely unsustainable double digit housing cost increases per year.  Nothing to do with poor lending practices or interest only mortgages, 80/10/10 bullshit, and other "creative financing".  It has nothing to do with people making 45K a year buying 500K houses because they are fools.  Keep on believing that what one man says has that big of an impact on any market, especially when he isn't in a position to effect change anymore.  

www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/02/12/politics/main2464225.shtml?source=RSSattr=Politics_2464225


Bush Offers Rosy Economic Forecast
President Asks Lawmakers To Give Him Greater Authority In Making Free-Trade Deals

WASHINGTON, Feb. 12, 2007

(CBS/AP) Free-trade policies making it easier for U.S. companies to sell their products around the globe are an important ingredient to the economy's vitality, President Bush said Monday as he projected another year of good — though somewhat slower — economic growth.

Mr. Bush, in his annual economic report to Congress, made a fresh pitch for breaking down trade barriers and energizing global trade talks. He called on Congress to extend his authority to negotiate free-trade deals, a request that likely will face an uphill battle in the Democrat-controlled Congress.

"This authority is essential to completing good trade agreements," Mr. Bush wrote in the introduction to the report. "The Congress must renew it if we are to improve our competitiveness in the global economy."

tag

It's all about interest rates at this point.

Somebody commented that debt and credit abuse are at an all time high, they're always at an all time high because continual debt inflation is the path we've chosen.

Throughout the post-Carter era short rates have been on the decline, by about 80 basis points a year on average. When rates were behind that slope we had a recession every time, when rates were ahead of the slope we boomed. Then we hit a major bottom a couple years ago when rates were 1%.

I'd say a recession is likely.

It's funny he claims not to see any impact from the housing market, but then the housing market is an effect of the structural problems within the credit market, so maybe that's what he means.

How the hard money advocate AG was in the 60s, and the Austrian conservative Reagan appointed ended up being such an inflationist is the question.

Yeah, every once in a while he's make some kind of irrational exuberance comment, maybe that was his conscience talking. I have to assume he felt trapped as Fed chairman, I've been wondering if he'd write a book before he croaks.

Quoted: Quoted: I think we'll be lucky if it's only a recession. I agree. Just look at the pickle the automakers are currently in right now, and the crazy cost of real estate.... When people can no longer afford new cars or homes to live in, we are in deep doggie doo. I think a severe depression is looming just around the corner.

same line of thinking here as well.  SHTF is approaching.

Quoted: Let's see, he bitched about the increase in the stock market a few years ago and drove it down.

He did no such thing.  He pointed out the "irrational exuberance" of the dot-com bubble.  That bubble was going to pop whether he said anything or not.

Same with the housing market... lenders, realtors, and wannabe "real estate investors" have been telling us for years that there's no bubble, that this is the New Real Estate Economy, etc.  Just as the stock market was driven up by tech fever, the real estate market has been driven up by house-flipping fever.  Now, it's being held up (but barely, and slipping) with refi fever.  It's time for the housing market to correct itself.  The stock market is likely to drop too... part correction, part panic selling, and part of the general recession Greenspan sees coming.

Alan Greenspan is a pretty smart cookie.  He's a turncoat... he used to be Mr. Goldbug, but very quickly shut up about that when he was appointed to head the Fed.

Quoted: How the hard money advocate AG was in the 60s, and the Austrian conservative Reagan appointed ended up being such an inflationist is the question. Yeah, every once in a while he's make some kind of irrational exuberance comment, maybe that was his conscience talking. I have to assume he felt trapped as Fed chairman, I've been wondering if he'd write a book before he croaks.

My guess is, once he became chairman of the Fed, he got all the inside dope on what a house of cards our economy is.  You and I can sit here and complain about fiat money, inflation, trade defecits, etc. but we're standing at the bottom of the mountain staring straight up.  I think he got a very rare perspective on our situation, and realized we could pay now or pay later.  After all, inflation is a good way to pay down existing future debts without actually having to, you know, pay them.  And we have an astronomical debt waiting for us in the 21st century.

House is paid for.

Lots of cash in the bank.

No ongoing debts except the usual monthly ones and child support for a few more years.

I saw the handwriting on the wall a few years ago and acted accordingly.

Everyone out there with huge credit card debts, ARM's and 2 new cars on 60 month financing are going to be in for a RUDE shock.

All we need now is an oil shock and it'll be the 70's all over again.

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: I think we'll be lucky if it's only a recession. I agree. Just look at the pickle the automakers are currently in right now, and the crazy cost of real estate.... When people can no longer afford new cars or homes to live in, we are in deep doggie doo. I think a severe depression is looming just around the corner. I agree as well To add more tinfoil the discussion, What happens when China and other ME countries dump the dollar in favor of the Euro?  Massive inflation/devaluing of the dollar... don't scoff at the suggestion, Russia's no friend of ours.  Middle Eastern countries practically own the US debt.  China, IMO, has built their empire from our desire of cheap goods and may decide they don't need the US consumer any more.  Not to mention, with the worthless dollar, American-manufactured goods would be dirt cheap for export.  We'd be at the mercy of other countries once again.

Tinfoil?

Some see it that way,but I sure as heck dont!Communist China and Russia defintely need to be watched-as well as some of the smaller countries out there.I really think that there are a lot of countries that would love to see US fall,and economic warfare is about the only chance they have.

We have been stupid for way too long and it is going to catch up to us soon.Way too many back room deals going on that don't involve the US that we need to worry about.

Time will tell,but I think we are in for some bad times ahead.

It'll happen, Mi is already in the throes of one and it's not pretty.

The only thing that has staved off a correction is artifically low interest rates and lots of credit. The debt that people are carrying is unsustainable long term, and quite frankly I don't understand how they do it short term either. They won't be walking away from it either as in the past.

Even the federal welfare system is at an all time high, with much more spending per recipient then in the 90s when it was overhauled. Now it's "programs", not the cash payments of yore but they still cost $$$$$$.

It'll be a good time to buy stuff if you're cash rich and own no bad debt..........

Until peoples "on paper" wealth drops tho, no one is going to believe it in the middle class.

As a resident of the Industrial belt, I can say, we won't come out of this recession here.

As more businesses move over seas there is nothing to replace them.

Harley Davidson closed their biggest plant, in York, Pa. Locally in my county a local Cabinet maker has layed off well over 150 people, citing Cheaper Competition from China.

We cannot live as a nation on Service/ retail occupations and Tech occupations alone. Because without anything being produced there is no one to pay the Tech, Retail and Service sectors.

Quoted: House is paid for. Lots of cash in the bank. No ongoing debts except the usual monthly ones and child support for a few more years. I saw the handwriting on the wall a few years ago and acted accordingly. Everyone out there with huge credit card debts, ARM's and 2 new cars on 60 month financing are going to be in for a RUDE shock.

The really sad part is the vast majority don't see it coming.Too busy keeping up with the latest trends and television shows.

I notice even on here,a lot of people have a short attention span and don't want to read any article that is considered "long".This thread will go a couple pages and die,and the whatcha drinkin' and similar threads will get more responses .

Bread and circuses........

Remember, the classic defintion of a recession is two or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth (in other words real GDP falls).  They have broadened the definition of recession recently, so other factors beyond GDP can be counted and I don't think the quarters have to be consecutive.

GunLvr

all 4 cars are paid for, my house is on a 30 years fixed 4.5% loan and the only real hard debt i have is credit cards i had to live on for over a year because my wife wasnt finished with school and i was in a crap job.  it might be tough for a while but i can make it.  If nothing else i have a ton of ammo and a bad attitude

SW

Quoted: As a resident of the Industrial belt, I can say, we won't come out of this recession here.

All the growing state economies are in places which don't tax the productive base to death.  PA and MI were run by the unions and dems (and now inner-city ghetto trash) for so long they destroyed their economies.  It won't be getting better anytime soon.