Will Iran Go Nuclear? With Poll

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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Will Iran Go Nuclear? With Poll

Posted: 1/3/2006 11:33:09 AM EDT

Simple question, what's your take? Personally, I think they will go nuclear and we will sit on our hands. Until recently I thought we or the Israelis would stop them, but I think we've lost our balls.

What say you?

Posted: 1/3/2006 11:33:47 AM EDT

[#1]

IBTP

Posted: 1/3/2006 11:33:48 AM EDT

[#2]

ibtp

Posted: 1/3/2006 11:35:29 AM EDT

[#3]

Quoted:
ibtp

Posted: 1/3/2006 11:35:57 AM EDT

[#4]

It will happen.

Posted: 1/3/2006 11:41:57 AM EDT

[#5]

Yes Iran will go nuclear and why not ?? The Israeli's went nuke by stealing the uranium from the Savanah River plant in South Carolina. At least Iran is paying their own way.

5sub

Posted: 1/3/2006 11:44:04 AM EDT

[#6]

Who really cares.. If it does not stop me from getting my crapachino from Starbucks, or interrupts the latest installment of American Idol. I don't think Mr and Ms. America will give a shit. People are to self absorbed in what they want or think they want, than care about what happens half way around the world.

I say let those monkey make a bomb, hell for that matter 12. We need a thinning of the herd, on this planet.

Posted: 1/3/2006 11:56:42 AM EDT

[#7]

Even if the US or Israel does try to stop them, I'm sure they'll manage it eventually. I seem to recall reports a few years ago that they had one or two ex-FSU nukes already, perhaps they can reverse-engineer?

NTM

Posted: 1/3/2006 12:04:57 PM EDT

[#8]

Quoted:
Even if the US or Israel does try to stop them, I'm sure they'll manage it eventually. I seem to recall reports a few years ago that they had one or two ex-FSU nukes already, perhaps they can reverse-engineer?

NTM

It's not a matter of engineering anything, it's a matter of obtaining fissionable material. Actual plans to make a device can be found online IIRC.

Posted: 1/3/2006 12:05:04 PM EDT

[#9]

Quoted:
Even if the US or Israel does try to stop them, I'm sure they'll manage it eventually. I seem to recall reports a few years ago that they had one or two ex-FSU nukes already, perhaps they can reverse-engineer?

NTM

They don't need too. They have the blueprints for the 'Khan Bomb' sold them by A Q Khan the guy who built the Pakistani Bomb. It's the same design as NK's too, and all 3 are copies of a Chinese nuke.

They will go nuclear, nothing will happen, especially from Israel.

ANdy

Posted: 1/3/2006 12:16:50 PM EDT

[#10]

You guys are plain silly if you think Israel is going to let them get the bomb.

Ordinarily I'd say they probably already have one, but the only thing holding me back is that the IDF hasn't taken care of it, which leads me to think they aren't quite there yet.

No, Israel will strike in about six to ten weeks... look for the New Moon time of the month in Feb/Mar/Apr for prime strike dates.

John

Posted: 1/3/2006 12:20:41 PM EDT

[#11]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Even if the US or Israel does try to stop them, I'm sure they'll manage it eventually. I seem to recall reports a few years ago that they had one or two ex-FSU nukes already, perhaps they can reverse-engineer?

NTM

They don't need too. They have the blueprints for the 'Khan Bomb' sold them by A Q Khan the guy who built the Pakistani Bomb. It's the same design as NK's too, and all 3 are copies of a Chinese nuke.

They will go nuclear, nothing will happen, especially from Israel.

ANdy

I don't think the Isreali's can afford to let them have the bomb. It would mean the end of their country, and a catastrophe on a scale with the Holocaust.

Unless politics works - and I don't think it will - the US will act. If they don't... Isreal will nuke Iran. I don't think they can stop them with conventional weapons.

And then, all hell will break loose.

Posted: 1/3/2006 12:21:33 PM EDT

[#12]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Even if the US or Israel does try to stop them, I'm sure they'll manage it eventually. I seem to recall reports a few years ago that they had one or two ex-FSU nukes already, perhaps they can reverse-engineer?

NTM

They don't need too. They have the blueprints for the 'Khan Bomb' sold them by A Q Khan the guy who built the Pakistani Bomb. It's the same design as NK's too, and all 3 are copies of a Chinese nuke.

They will go nuclear, nothing will happen, especially from Israel.

ANdy

I tend to agree, but there is always the possibility of the

accident

at their facilities as well.

easier to say....who me?

Posted: 1/3/2006 12:27:43 PM EDT

[#13]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Even if the US or Israel does try to stop them, I'm sure they'll manage it eventually. I seem to recall reports a few years ago that they had one or two ex-FSU nukes already, perhaps they can reverse-engineer?

NTM

They don't need too. They have the blueprints for the 'Khan Bomb' sold them by A Q Khan the guy who built the Pakistani Bomb. It's the same design as NK's too, and all 3 are copies of a Chinese nuke.

They will go nuclear, nothing will happen, especially from Israel.

ANdy

I don't think the Isreali's can afford to let them have the bomb. It would mean the end of their country, and a catastrophe on a scale with the Holocaust.

Unless politics works - and I don't think it will - the US will act. If they don't... Isreal will nuke Iran. I don't think they can stop them with conventional weapons.

And then, all hell will break loose.

The only way Israel could nuke Iran due to range considerations and Iran's moderately respectable Air Defences would be with Jehrico IRBM's....

Now look at a map and look at the tracks the missiles would have to follow. See that big boy in the outfield? that's Russia. You think the Russian Missile Command is going to be to happy to see IRBM's heading their way with impact points within 50 miles of the border for at least one significant Iranian target?

ANdy

Posted: 1/3/2006 12:32:58 PM EDT

[#14]

These are just the targets they know about, you need to get them all....

A list of facilities here...

Iranian NBC/Missile facilities

Posted: 1/3/2006 2:02:18 PM EDT

[#15]

Quoted:

The only way Israel could nuke Iran due to range considerations and Iran's moderately respectable Air Defences would be with Jehrico IRBM's....

Now look at a map and look at the tracks the missiles would have to follow. See that big boy in the outfield? that's Russia. You think the Russian Missile Command is going to be to happy to see IRBM's heading their way with impact points within 50 miles of the border for at least one significant Iranian target?

ANdy

Oh, I agree. That's why I said that all hell will break loose.

The problem, IMHO, is that the Isreali's will feel that they have no choice. Iran hasn't exactly hidden their desire to wipe Isreal off the face of the earth.

Isreal's decision basically would boil down to:

-Do nothing = Isreal destroyed by Iran
-Nuke Iran = Isreal Maybe Destroyed by Russia.

Now, the US could throw a curveball at the whole thing by selling ABM systems to Isreal... But I don't see that happening. The only other option would be to make sure that there are AEGIS ships constantly in the vicinity, and hope thier SM-3's can bring the missiles down.

ETA: I guess what I'm saying is that Desperate people do desperate things...

Posted: 1/3/2006 2:18:28 PM EDT

[#16]

IATP

Israel IMHo cannot do shit about it... That is a long haul without a refuel and there is nofuckingway we or the Iraqis are gonna let them overfly Iraq.

Posted: 1/3/2006 2:33:53 PM EDT

[#17]

Quoted:
Quoted:

The only way Israel could nuke Iran due to range considerations and Iran's moderately respectable Air Defences would be with Jehrico IRBM's....

Now look at a map and look at the tracks the missiles would have to follow. See that big boy in the outfield? that's Russia. You think the Russian Missile Command is going to be to happy to see IRBM's heading their way with impact points within 50 miles of the border for at least one significant Iranian target?

ANdy

Oh, I agree. That's why I said that all hell will break loose.

The problem, IMHO, is that the Isreali's will feel that they have no choice. Iran hasn't exactly hidden their desire to wipe Isreal off the face of the earth.

Isreal's decision basically would boil down to:

-Do nothing = Isreal destroyed by Iran
-Nuke Iran = Isreal Maybe Destroyed by Russia.

Now, the US could throw a curveball at the whole thing by selling ABM systems to Isreal... But I don't see that happening. The only other option would be to make sure that there are AEGIS ships constantly in the vicinity, and hope thier SM-3's can bring the missiles down.

ETA: I guess what I'm saying is that Desperate people do desperate things...

I'm not sure I'm following your logic here. Where does Russia fit into this?(See map) And which part of Russia is 50 miles from Iran?(See Map)

Posted: 1/3/2006 2:51:46 PM EDT

[#18]

Iran will never go nuclear while george is in office. I watched bill o rilley ask him point blank on this issue, and he said , it will not happen. When it comes to our border issues I really don't beleive a word he says. But on this you could see it in his eyes , he aint gonna let it happen on his watch. He will call a air strike and he won't give a damn about world opinon and I don't either.
I say bomb them

Posted: 1/3/2006 3:51:26 PM EDT

[#19]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:

The only way Israel could nuke Iran due to range considerations and Iran's moderately respectable Air Defences would be with Jehrico IRBM's....

Now look at a map and look at the tracks the missiles would have to follow. See that big boy in the outfield? that's Russia. You think the Russian Missile Command is going to be to happy to see IRBM's heading their way with impact points within 50 miles of the border for at least one significant Iranian target?

ANdy

Oh, I agree. That's why I said that all hell will break loose.

The problem, IMHO, is that the Isreali's will feel that they have no choice. Iran hasn't exactly hidden their desire to wipe Isreal off the face of the earth.

Isreal's decision basically would boil down to:

-Do nothing = Isreal destroyed by Iran
-Nuke Iran = Isreal Maybe Destroyed by Russia.

Now, the US could throw a curveball at the whole thing by selling ABM systems to Isreal... But I don't see that happening. The only other option would be to make sure that there are AEGIS ships constantly in the vicinity, and hope thier SM-3's can bring the missiles down.

ETA: I guess what I'm saying is that Desperate people do desperate things...

I'm not sure I'm following your logic here. Where does Russia fit into this?(See map) And which part of Russia is 50 miles from Iran?(See Map)

homepage.mac.com/mmanus/.Pictures/map.jpg

Russia still regards it's borders and sphere of influence as stopping at the 'stans and has forces based in some of them.

ANdy

Posted: 1/3/2006 3:53:05 PM EDT

[#20]

I voted for the combined takeout. It might not look combined but it will be.

Ain't no other way. For Israel to get there they need to go over Iraq. We control Iraq airspace. They can't go North or South.

As far as Iraq letting it happen, it's well within the realm of possibility.

Most of Iraq is Arab, most of Iran are Persians/Aryans. Arabs hate Persians and vice versa. Remember they spent 10 years trying to annihilate each other. Sunnis and Shiites add another layer of uncertainty.

Would the Saudis let Israel use their airspace? maybe covertly. The Saudi royal family is probably as scared of radicals in Iran having nukes as anybody else.

Posted: 1/3/2006 3:56:02 PM EDT

[#21]

Quoted:
I voted for the combined takeout. It might not look combined but it will be.

Ain't no other way. For Israel to get there they need to go over Iraq. We control Iraq airspace. They can't go North or South.

As far as Iraq letting it happen, it's well within the realm of possibility.

Most of Iraq is Arab, most of Iran are Persians/Aryans. Arabs hate Persians and vice versa. Remember they spent 10 years trying to annihilate each other. Sunnis and Shiites add another layer of uncertainty.

Would the Saudis let Israel use their airspace? maybe covertly. The Saudi royal family is probably as scared of radicals in Iran having nukes as anybody else.

The Saudis have hinted at getting nuclear weapons if Iran goes nuclear. Probably from Pakistan.

ANdy

Posted: 1/3/2006 3:58:14 PM EDT

[#22]

There is no way the U.S. or Israel allows it. May will be a very interesting month.

HH

Posted: 1/3/2006 4:06:09 PM EDT

[#23]

Quoted:
Yes Iran will go nuclear and why not ?? The Israeli's went nuke by stealing the uranium from the Savanah River plant in South Carolina. At least Iran is paying their own way.

5sub

That's the first time I've heard that [suggested as reality].

Are you sure you didn't read that in The Sum of All Fears. That was ~~tritium IIRC~~ [nope, it was plutonium 239].

Plutonium Distribution from 1944-1994

Posted: 1/3/2006 4:10:45 PM EDT

[#24]

Israel will never allow it..........

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Will Iran Go Nuclear? With Poll

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