User Panel
Posted: 10/27/2021 8:27:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: The_Beer_Slayer]
This is now the active "shit News links, thanks to BerettaGuy: Originally Posted By BerettaGuy: LINKS TO UKRAINIAN NEWS SOURCES IN ENGLISH Kyiv Post Ukrainian News UKRInform EUROMAIDEN PRESS New Voice of Ukraine Kyiv Independent Ukraine World InterFax Ukraine UATV Ukrainian Journal Official Website of the President of Ukraine Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Save these links. I can't post all the headlines like I've done in the past - too much news and too often. View Quote Please @ me with additional stuff to be added here. I don't currently have time to properly curate this thread otherwise. New news link c/o berettaguy: Ukrainian Pravda https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ Stop fake, anti - disinformation site: https://www.stopfake.org/en/main/ |
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Been here since the start, lets see if I can lay claim to 4746
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Originally Posted By GBTX01:
The birds 💙🦅💛 of the Magyar destroy the UMZ (universal mine countermeasures) of the Rashists 🧟 which is designed to slow down the advance of our counteroffensive, but it will no longer be able to interfere with the Armed Forces 💙💪💛 to liberate our holy land ❤️🩹 View Quote I love how "BOOM Motherfucker!" is universal |
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Originally Posted By Pants223: I love how "BOOM Motherfucker!" is universal View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Pants223: Originally Posted By GBTX01:
The birds 💙🦅💛 of the Magyar destroy the UMZ (universal mine countermeasures) of the Rashists 🧟 which is designed to slow down the advance of our counteroffensive, but it will no longer be able to interfere with the Armed Forces 💙💪💛 to liberate our holy land ❤️🩹 I love how "BOOM Motherfucker!" is universal The man loves his work! |
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Originally Posted By RockNwood: I would guess they are very likely to achieve another 10km before October. That makes for a very cold and lonely winter if transport is cut off.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3197-2931456.jpg View Quote If the above reports about contacts on the edge of Ilchenkove are true, then it seems likely the Ukrainians have well and truly broken through the first line of defense. The south side of Ilchenkove looks to be where the big "second line" of fortifications (or I guess third line depending on how you count the fortifications further north), looking at the ISW map. I guess it depends on why/how the Ukrainians were able to penetrate the first line. I hope it was because Russian artillery has been degraded to the point that it is no longer available to stop them from dismantling the minefields. If so, there's probably a good chance the second line won't present nearly the obstacle the first line did. |
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Never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be. - Adm James Stockdale
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A Man's Home Trailer is his White Castle!
FL, USA
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Sweet baby Jesus on fire. Gonna need a damn lawyer and a miracle to pull my ass outta this.
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View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By 4xGM300m: Originally Posted By Prime: T-10
/media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/476-342.gif Fucking unbelievable. This tank (not sure if it's the exact same footage) has popped up before and it has always been very old footage that pre-dated the current war. |
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The last point is slightly ominous. |
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"I haven't met one burnt end or rib that I haven't liked." -Andy Reid
"Sporterizing: The art of spending $700 on a $300 gun to make it worth $200." -GTwannabe |
Originally Posted By lorazepam: I was dumb enough to get out of the boat again. Rational thought is missing from many here who used to be great posters. Sigh. My twitter account is almost useless, either everyone I have followed is ghosted, or I am. It's what I get for shitposting, I guess. View Quote |
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MADE IN ENGLAND
By usptac: Sadly, there are mass graves all over Europe, full of the wrong people. by sherrick13 Shit, you Brits would stir shit up just to keep the others off balance. |
Twitter Link "Putin says Wagner supporters ought to be happy for Prigozhin as he finally got ammunition from Moscow" |
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Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: This is either indicates that the Russians have decided to commit to a more mobile, maneuver defense, or that the Ukrainians attrition based strategy is starting to pay off. It could be a mixture of the two, I suppose. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
All I can report this morning is that the ruZZIans claim (meaning no AFU sources have confirmed) that the entire AFU 47th Air Assault Brigade was recommitted to the line of contact between Robotyne and Novoprokopivka and there is extremely heavy fighting going on. On a positive note, @Majakovsk73 was able to document AFU advances towards Novoprokopivka and Verbove over the last 24-hours. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4X8E_3XkAA0cC9?format=jpg&name=large
Video:
This is either indicates that the Russians have decided to commit to a more mobile, maneuver defense, or that the Ukrainians attrition based strategy is starting to pay off. It could be a mixture of the two, I suppose. Maneuver where? They have very little room to fall back before Ukrainian 155mm is hitting the logistics for the southwest front. When it gets to that point I suspect everything in the southwest pocket is going to collapse and try to run into Crimea. Problem with that is the choke point into Crimea is going to put the fish in a barrel. Worse Crimea lost its main water supply when the Russians blew the dam. They are likely living on what they stored up right now. The more men increases the demand in water too. It remains to be seen if the Kerch bridge can provide the sustainment for Crimea. Maybe they can assist with ships but that’s going to get more sketchy if the anti ship missiles can take shots, and naval drones could be a problem. |
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Originally Posted By 1Andy2: If the above reports about contacts on the edge of Ilchenkove are true, then it seems likely the Ukrainians have well and truly broken through the first line of defense. The south side of Ilchenkove looks to be where the big "second line" of fortifications (or I guess third line depending on how you count the fortifications further north), looking at the ISW map. I guess it depends on why/how the Ukrainians were able to penetrate the first line. I hope it was because Russian artillery has been degraded to the point that it is no longer available to stop them from dismantling the minefields. If so, there's probably a good chance the second line won't present nearly the obstacle the first line did. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By 1Andy2: Originally Posted By RockNwood: I would guess they are very likely to achieve another 10km before October. That makes for a very cold and lonely winter if transport is cut off.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3197-2931456.jpg If the above reports about contacts on the edge of Ilchenkove are true, then it seems likely the Ukrainians have well and truly broken through the first line of defense. The south side of Ilchenkove looks to be where the big "second line" of fortifications (or I guess third line depending on how you count the fortifications further north), looking at the ISW map. I guess it depends on why/how the Ukrainians were able to penetrate the first line. I hope it was because Russian artillery has been degraded to the point that it is no longer available to stop them from dismantling the minefields. If so, there's probably a good chance the second line won't present nearly the obstacle the first line did. Believe you are correct. There were many Russian reports complaining of lack of their artillery and UA armor moving more freely. Then you have the daily kill report averaging 20+ artillery units per day. And good point that if the artillery is not there for the first line it won’t be there gir srvond or third in any numbers either. |
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Deplorable fan of liberty
“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” |
If Russia abandons the islands it gets more and more likely UA can establish regular boat landings and then perhaps reinforce enough with ADA to make a pontoon bridge.
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Deplorable fan of liberty
“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” |
Another Russian agent near Bakhmut. Life in prison likely. I think former residents of Bakhmut and gold star families out to get first crack at her.
The perpetrator turned out to be a teacher from one of the lyceums in Kramatorsk, who worked for the main directorate of the general staff of the armed forces of the russion federation. The court chose a preventive measure for her in the form of detention. The investigation is ongoing. The perpetrator faces life imprisonment. |
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Deplorable fan of liberty
“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” |
Originally Posted By The_Gooch: Whats even worse is that they will now have to dig up some 122mm tank shells somewhere for those(though probably different than the 122mm used in the D30 howitzer, they may just send a crew of poor They already need 100mm for the T-54/55, 115mm for the T-62, and 125mm for the T-72/T80/T90. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By The_Gooch: Originally Posted By 4xGM300m: Originally Posted By Prime: T-10
/media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/476-342.gif Fucking unbelievable. They already need 100mm for the T-54/55, 115mm for the T-62, and 125mm for the T-72/T80/T90. My money is on clickbait title. |
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Originally Posted By stgdz: Can the glsdb hit moving targets? I remember Boeing and some air force higher up reroute the specs of some bomb project that initially would hit moving targets and then she changed it to stationary and got prison time for it. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By stgdz: Originally Posted By theskuh: Originally Posted By Zhukov: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I agree, there are a ton of variables, but it will give the Ukrainians a good deal of flexibility when it arrives in numbers. I don't think the Russian air defenses will be able to intercept it as easily as some think. Different flight profiles and maneuvers could fool the SAM radars at deciding what the target is. https://www.arabnews.com/sites/default/files/userimages/20/gr_glsdb.png Interesting data from Wikipedia: The cost is undisclosed; however the SDB used in GLSDB has a cost to the U.S. military of about $40,000,[16][33] with the accompanying M26 rocket coming from obsolete inventory. The amount to be allocated to each GLSDB of the cost of the "inter-stage adapter", the cost to develop a launcher-container, and the other GLSDB development and production costs of Boeing and Saab is unknown.[34] For comparison purposes, the cost of a single M31 missile is estimated at $500,000,[17] though this may be the "export price", always higher than the amount charged to the U.S. army.[35] According to the U.S. army's budget, it will pay about $168,000 for each GMLRS in 2023.[36][37] The GLSDB is being offered to Ukraine as a long distance alternative to the 300 km (190 mi) ATACMS missiles,[38][39] which have a price per unit estimated to be well over $1M USD.[40] The other long distance alternative is the 250 km (160 mi) Storm Shadow missiles,[41] each of which is estimated to cost around 2m ($2.5m USD, FY2023). This is also noteworthy: Although the GLSDB can be launched from either MLRS or HIMARS, it also comes with its own launcher, which resembles a nondescript 20-foot (6.1 m) shipping container, making it easier to create decoys and more difficult for the enemy to locate and target. I believe there is also an air launched version. Which along with the F16's on the way may give some decent options as well. I am not sure how the ground launch version differs from the air launch. I think its named gbu53b but having a bunch of those used by lofting or fired at standoff distances would probably be super helpful. Can the glsdb hit moving targets? I remember Boeing and some air force higher up reroute the specs of some bomb project that initially would hit moving targets and then she changed it to stationary and got prison time for it. It can if the sdb is the later version called SDB II, Ukrainian forces are getting the older SDB I which is GPS and stationary targets only. |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Excerpt from linked WaPo article Ukraine’s incremental gains are part of a larger effort that British Chief of Defense Staff Adm. Tony Radakin termed “starve, stretch and strike.” Ukrainian forces are stretching Russian defenses by attacking at multiple points along the 600-mile front. They are also attriting assets in Russian-occupied territory, taking out artillery units, headquarters and reserve force staging areas, as well as targeting key supply depots and routes to make it more difficult for Russia to sustain its defense. To put it simply, Ukraine is applying pressure on their opponent until something breaks, at which point they will commit their reserves and strike. Russian front-line forces are likely tired, if not exhausted. Some have been defending since at least the start of the counteroffensive on June 4, and many of them have been in place for much longer than that. Fresh units have not been rotated in. It is also unclear how heavily mined or manned Russia’s secondary defensive lines are, but there is good reason to doubt that the Russians have large numbers of high-quality soldiers holding them. Most important, Russia lacks large operational reserves. This means that any Ukrainian breach of existing lines will be difficult to quickly plug. This is what Ukraine is banking on. A small breach could yield relatively sudden and rapid gains. If those materialize, panic among Russian forces could multiply Ukraine’s opportunities for maintaining its momentum. View Quote |
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Deplorable fan of liberty
“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” |
Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: I agree. This whole affair has been handled badly by Putin et al from the beginning. First looking weak, now looking weak AND vengeful. I also doubt Wagner, as an organization, does anything in response, other than heartfelt condolences about Prig. I would not be surprised if one day in the future, someone puts a bullet in Putin, Shoighu, or whoever, and it turns out the shooter was associated with Wagner. There are a lot of violent, sociopathic, armed and trained veterans around Russia. This mess is NOT a net positive for Putin's protection detail. I bet Russia has a J6 style roundup of Wagner and ex-Wagner veterans in the near future. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By mercersfinest4: WRT to Prigozhin, I am very surprised he survived 2 months after his failed coup. I am happy to see him gone. He was a really bad guy and, as an added bonus, his murder seems to be a divisive internal issue in Russia. Putin does seem to be rolling up any potential competitors and critics. WRT to Wagner, my bet is that they don’t do a thing. If they couldn’t execute a coup with top leadership alive, I don’t expect them to execute further plans with leadership dead. WRT to Russia and Russians, in general, it truly is the world’s biggest trailer park. I agree. This whole affair has been handled badly by Putin et al from the beginning. First looking weak, now looking weak AND vengeful. I also doubt Wagner, as an organization, does anything in response, other than heartfelt condolences about Prig. I would not be surprised if one day in the future, someone puts a bullet in Putin, Shoighu, or whoever, and it turns out the shooter was associated with Wagner. There are a lot of violent, sociopathic, armed and trained veterans around Russia. This mess is NOT a net positive for Putin's protection detail. I bet Russia has a J6 style roundup of Wagner and ex-Wagner veterans in the near future. I doubt anyone still working for PMC Wagner will attempt direct action against Putin; on that we agree. However, the Wagner people (especially in Africa) may well react to Piggy’s execution. Look at what kicked off the “assault on Moscow:” someone in the Kremlin ordered every Wagner goon to sign a contract with the Russian Army, effectively making Wagner disappear. Had that happened, Piggy’s power would have disappeared, which is why he had to do - something. My guess is Shoigu or Gerasimov ordered Wagner to simply dissolve and join the Russia army. Piggy’s Moscow feint made sense in that light. What now though, with his death? Without Piggy, will all of Wagner simply roll-over, join the Russian army, take a massive pay cut, and follow army orders to jump into the meat-grinder? I doubt that. Current Wagner guys must understand that Putin now sees THEM as a threat too, to be eliminated ASAP. PMC Wagner also know they are mercenaries; nothing more. There are other oligarchs looking to hire mercenaries. Africa is full of despots willing to pay Wagner thugs to do what they do. Current Wagner guys have options. My bet is most of them find other employment, or just quit and go home. I would not bet on long life expectancies for the dumb ones who continue on as if nothing has happened. |
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Twitter Link |
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Originally Posted By RockNwood: Another Russian agent near Bakhmut. Life in prison likely. I think former residents of Bakhmut and gold star families out to get first crack at her. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3200-2931639.jpg
The perpetrator turned out to be a teacher from one of the lyceums in Kramatorsk, who worked for the main directorate of the general staff of the armed forces of the russion federation. The court chose a preventive measure for her in the form of detention. The investigation is ongoing. The perpetrator faces life imprisonment. View Quote Looks like the Czechs sent over some Scorpion Evo's |
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I don’t follow much of the R churn yet but saw this video exchange and was impressed that the crowd seemed to be cheering strongly for Haley’s points about Putin and Ukraine aid. Feel free to correct my impression if you follow this more than I.
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Deplorable fan of liberty
“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” |
Originally Posted By RockNwood: Another Russian agent near Bakhmut. Life in prison likely. I think former residents of Bakhmut and gold star families out to get first crack at her. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3200-2931639.jpg
The perpetrator turned out to be a teacher from one of the lyceums in Kramatorsk, who worked for the main directorate of the general staff of the armed forces of the russion federation. The court chose a preventive measure for her in the form of detention. The investigation is ongoing. The perpetrator faces life imprisonment. View Quote At least the US isn't alone in having an educational system chock full of communist cat ladies! |
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Originally Posted By stgdz: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-39_Small_Diameter_Bomb But it appears Raytheon got involved but Boeing and saab are now making them Tallest will be a long soon to explain how procurement.works in its convoluted military way. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darleen_Druyun. A real piece of work. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/64/Darleen_Druyun.jpg View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By stgdz: Originally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By stgdz: Originally Posted By theskuh: Originally Posted By Zhukov: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I agree, there are a ton of variables, but it will give the Ukrainians a good deal of flexibility when it arrives in numbers. I don't think the Russian air defenses will be able to intercept it as easily as some think. Different flight profiles and maneuvers could fool the SAM radars at deciding what the target is. https://www.arabnews.com/sites/default/files/userimages/20/gr_glsdb.png Interesting data from Wikipedia: The cost is undisclosed; however the SDB used in GLSDB has a cost to the U.S. military of about $40,000,[16][33] with the accompanying M26 rocket coming from obsolete inventory. The amount to be allocated to each GLSDB of the cost of the "inter-stage adapter", the cost to develop a launcher-container, and the other GLSDB development and production costs of Boeing and Saab is unknown.[34] For comparison purposes, the cost of a single M31 missile is estimated at $500,000,[17] though this may be the "export price", always higher than the amount charged to the U.S. army.[35] According to the U.S. army's budget, it will pay about $168,000 for each GMLRS in 2023.[36][37] The GLSDB is being offered to Ukraine as a long distance alternative to the 300 km (190 mi) ATACMS missiles,[38][39] which have a price per unit estimated to be well over $1M USD.[40] The other long distance alternative is the 250 km (160 mi) Storm Shadow missiles,[41] each of which is estimated to cost around 2m ($2.5m USD, FY2023). This is also noteworthy: Although the GLSDB can be launched from either MLRS or HIMARS, it also comes with its own launcher, which resembles a nondescript 20-foot (6.1 m) shipping container, making it easier to create decoys and more difficult for the enemy to locate and target. I believe there is also an air launched version. Which along with the F16's on the way may give some decent options as well. I am not sure how the ground launch version differs from the air launch. I think its named gbu53b but having a bunch of those used by lofting or fired at standoff distances would probably be super helpful. Can the glsdb hit moving targets? I remember Boeing and some air force higher up reroute the specs of some bomb project that initially would hit moving targets and then she changed it to stationary and got prison time for it. Ok who was that??? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-39_Small_Diameter_Bomb But it appears Raytheon got involved but Boeing and saab are now making them Tallest will be a long soon to explain how procurement.works in its convoluted military way. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darleen_Druyun. A real piece of work. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/64/Darleen_Druyun.jpg lol, there is some messed up shenanigans sometimes with weapons design and procurement. Boeing is supplying the older sdb I for Saab to integrate which is GPS only. I'm pretty sure once F-16's arrive, the sdb I can be launched from those. In 2002, while Boeing and Lockheed Martin were competing to develop the Small Diameter Bomb, Darleen A. Druyun – at that time Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition and Management – deleted the requirement for moving target engagement, which favored Boeing. She was later convicted of violating a conflict of interest statute.[27][28] There is around 50,000 of them produced. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.dacis.com/budget/budget_pdf/FY20/PROC/F/SDB000_9.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiXxOyDwfiAAxUjlYkEHeXLDc44ChAWegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw0BcY1hKFdjuaXaQ99gZofK |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Originally Posted By Dominion21: I doubt anyone still working for PMC Wagner will attempt direct action against Putin; on that we agree. However, the Wagner people (especially in Africa) may well react to Piggy’s execution. Look at what kicked off the “assault on Moscow:” someone in the Kremlin ordered every Wagner goon to sign a contract with the Russian Army, effectively making Wagner disappear. Had that happened, Piggy’s power would have disappeared, which is why he had to do - something. My guess is Shoigu or Gerasimov ordered Wagner to simply dissolve and join the Russia army. What now? Without Piggy, will all of Wagner simply roll-over, join the Russian army, take a massive pay cut, and follow orders to jump into the meat-grinder? Current Wagner guys must understand that Putin now sees THEM as a threat, to be eliminated ASAP. PMC Wagner also know they are mercenaries; nothing more. There are other oligarchs looking to hire mercenaries. Africa is full of despots willing to pay Wagner thugs to do what they do. Current Wagner guys have options. My bet is most of them find other employment, or just quit and go home. I would not bet on long life expectancies for the dumb ones who continue on as if nothing has happened. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Dominion21: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By mercersfinest4: WRT to Prigozhin, I am very surprised he survived 2 months after his failed coup. I am happy to see him gone. He was a really bad guy and, as an added bonus, his murder seems to be a divisive internal issue in Russia. Putin does seem to be rolling up any potential competitors and critics. WRT to Wagner, my bet is that they don’t do a thing. If they couldn’t execute a coup with top leadership alive, I don’t expect them to execute further plans with leadership dead. WRT to Russia and Russians, in general, it truly is the world’s biggest trailer park. I agree. This whole affair has been handled badly by Putin et al from the beginning. First looking weak, now looking weak AND vengeful. I also doubt Wagner, as an organization, does anything in response, other than heartfelt condolences about Prig. I would not be surprised if one day in the future, someone puts a bullet in Putin, Shoighu, or whoever, and it turns out the shooter was associated with Wagner. There are a lot of violent, sociopathic, armed and trained veterans around Russia. This mess is NOT a net positive for Putin's protection detail. I bet Russia has a J6 style roundup of Wagner and ex-Wagner veterans in the near future. I doubt anyone still working for PMC Wagner will attempt direct action against Putin; on that we agree. However, the Wagner people (especially in Africa) may well react to Piggy’s execution. Look at what kicked off the “assault on Moscow:” someone in the Kremlin ordered every Wagner goon to sign a contract with the Russian Army, effectively making Wagner disappear. Had that happened, Piggy’s power would have disappeared, which is why he had to do - something. My guess is Shoigu or Gerasimov ordered Wagner to simply dissolve and join the Russia army. What now? Without Piggy, will all of Wagner simply roll-over, join the Russian army, take a massive pay cut, and follow orders to jump into the meat-grinder? Current Wagner guys must understand that Putin now sees THEM as a threat, to be eliminated ASAP. PMC Wagner also know they are mercenaries; nothing more. There are other oligarchs looking to hire mercenaries. Africa is full of despots willing to pay Wagner thugs to do what they do. Current Wagner guys have options. My bet is most of them find other employment, or just quit and go home. I would not bet on long life expectancies for the dumb ones who continue on as if nothing has happened. It will be beautiful poetic justice for those senior Wagner blocking troops to be forced at bayonet point to the quickly evaporating zero line. Or face MoD blocking troops! Does thou bloody hand now tremble fierce criminal? |
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Deplorable fan of liberty
“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” |
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Those are really good decoys, probably more detailed than they need to be considering the poor resolution of Russian drones. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4Xpvf7WEAA2h3p?format=jpg&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4XpvrcXMAAhrnk?format=jpg&name=medium View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By PMB1086:
Those are really good decoys, probably more detailed than they need to be considering the poor resolution of Russian drones. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4Xpvf7WEAA2h3p?format=jpg&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4XpvrcXMAAhrnk?format=jpg&name=medium I don't think something is right with those pics. No one would build decoys to that extent. |
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Originally Posted By Auto5guy:
Twitter Link "Putin says Wagner supporters ought to be happy for Prigozhin as he finally got ammunition from Moscow" https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4UZWVsXQAEmc0f?format=jpg&name=medium View Quote Masterful troll |
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Originally Posted By RockNwood: I would guess they are very likely to achieve another 10km before October. That makes for a very cold and lonely winter if transport is cut off.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3197-2931456.jpg View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By RockNwood: I would guess they are very likely to achieve another 10km before October. That makes for a very cold and lonely winter if transport is cut off.
"(Then) it’s very hard to see how the Russian army can continue to fight" "Ukrainians must advance another 10km southward to cover all the terrain between them and the Sea of Azov. "Ukraine is now closing in on this goal at several spots along the frontline... "Once this happens, there is (forgive the use of this old term) a domino effect" Crimea would be supplied only by the Kerch Bridge, whose capacity "will likely not be enough to supply both the western part of the front and the civilian population" https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3197-2931456.jpg Uh, no. Twitter Poster is an expert in cyber. It shows. You can hope if UKR moves 5 miles, Russia will fold. If that's the case, there's probably no need to send any more armaments. |
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: It can if the sdb is the later version called SDB II, Ukrainian forces are getting the older SDB I which is GPS and stationary targets only. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By stgdz: Originally Posted By theskuh: Originally Posted By Zhukov: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I agree, there are a ton of variables, but it will give the Ukrainians a good deal of flexibility when it arrives in numbers. I don't think the Russian air defenses will be able to intercept it as easily as some think. Different flight profiles and maneuvers could fool the SAM radars at deciding what the target is. https://www.arabnews.com/sites/default/files/userimages/20/gr_glsdb.png Interesting data from Wikipedia: The cost is undisclosed; however the SDB used in GLSDB has a cost to the U.S. military of about $40,000,[16][33] with the accompanying M26 rocket coming from obsolete inventory. The amount to be allocated to each GLSDB of the cost of the "inter-stage adapter", the cost to develop a launcher-container, and the other GLSDB development and production costs of Boeing and Saab is unknown.[34] For comparison purposes, the cost of a single M31 missile is estimated at $500,000,[17] though this may be the "export price", always higher than the amount charged to the U.S. army.[35] According to the U.S. army's budget, it will pay about $168,000 for each GMLRS in 2023.[36][37] The GLSDB is being offered to Ukraine as a long distance alternative to the 300 km (190 mi) ATACMS missiles,[38][39] which have a price per unit estimated to be well over $1M USD.[40] The other long distance alternative is the 250 km (160 mi) Storm Shadow missiles,[41] each of which is estimated to cost around 2m ($2.5m USD, FY2023). This is also noteworthy: Although the GLSDB can be launched from either MLRS or HIMARS, it also comes with its own launcher, which resembles a nondescript 20-foot (6.1 m) shipping container, making it easier to create decoys and more difficult for the enemy to locate and target. I believe there is also an air launched version. Which along with the F16's on the way may give some decent options as well. I am not sure how the ground launch version differs from the air launch. I think its named gbu53b but having a bunch of those used by lofting or fired at standoff distances would probably be super helpful. Can the glsdb hit moving targets? I remember Boeing and some air force higher up reroute the specs of some bomb project that initially would hit moving targets and then she changed it to stationary and got prison time for it. It can if the sdb is the later version called SDB II, Ukrainian forces are getting the older SDB I which is GPS and stationary targets only. So why the delay in production? My understanding is they have to get the lines up and running but why not build2 with the radar seeker head? Cost? |
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Originally Posted By RockNwood: Another Russian agent near Bakhmut. Life in prison likely. I think former residents of Bakhmut and gold star families out to get first crack at her. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3200-2931639.jpg
The perpetrator turned out to be a teacher from one of the lyceums in Kramatorsk, who worked for the main directorate of the general staff of the armed forces of the russion federation. The court chose a preventive measure for her in the form of detention. The investigation is ongoing. The perpetrator faces life imprisonment. View Quote Ah a nice fat Russian lady for that guy that likes fatties and Russians. |
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Blameless, the tempest will be just that
So try as you may, feeble, your attempt to atone Your words to erase all the damage cannot A tempest must be just that |
Originally Posted By RockNwood: I don’t follow much of the R churn yet but saw this video exchange and was impressed that the crowd seemed to be cheering strongly for Haley’s points about Putin and Ukraine aid. Feel free to correct my impression if you follow this more than I.
View Quote You'd be correct. A poster here quipped in the debate thread something like, "Where'd all the Ukiebros in the audience come from?" And I replied something like "That's most of America," with a link to that recent poll in The Hill. Turns out life is different outside the bubble! |
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DeSantis 2024
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Originally Posted By GySgt_D: It came out of the Patriot Movement of the early 90's. It wasn't presented as a historical quote at that time. Possibly Louis Beam. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By GySgt_D: Originally Posted By bigstick61: The sad thing is that the quote is something someone on the Internet randomly made up sometime in the last couple of decades and doesn't have any real connection to our Founding Fathers or any philosophers who gave this country inspiration for the cause of liberty. It came out of the Patriot Movement of the early 90's. It wasn't presented as a historical quote at that time. Possibly Louis Beam. Interesting. I first encountered it at the very end of the 90s or the very beginning of the 2000s when I was a kid and first started exploring gun-related forums and BBs and they were already attributing it to Founding Fathers, most commonly Thomas Jefferson. Even at that age I had read enough from the Founders that it sounded completely wrong; that and a few others that get passed around as their quotes are not right in the sense that the Founders just didn't write that way. It sounds like something from someone more modern with less education and/or sophistication. But back to Ukraine. I'm starting to get excited by what they've been achieving in the south. Maybe they will manage to have a larger accomplishment after all. |
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The finest opportunity ever given to the world was thrown away because the passion for equality made vain the hope for freedom.
-Lord Acton |
Originally Posted By Dominion21: I doubt anyone still working for PMC Wagner will attempt direct action against Putin; on that we agree. However, the Wagner people (especially in Africa) may well react to Piggy’s execution. Look at what kicked off the “assault on Moscow:” someone in the Kremlin ordered every Wagner goon to sign a contract with the Russian Army, effectively making Wagner disappear. Had that happened, Piggy’s power would have disappeared, which is why he had to do - something. My guess is Shoigu or Gerasimov ordered Wagner to simply dissolve and join the Russia army. Piggy’s Moscow feint made sense in that light. What now though, with his death? Without Piggy, will all of Wagner simply roll-over, join the Russian army, take a massive pay cut, and follow army orders to jump into the meat-grinder? I doubt that. Current Wagner guys must understand that Putin now sees THEM as a threat too, to be eliminated ASAP. PMC Wagner also know they are mercenaries; nothing more. There are other oligarchs looking to hire mercenaries. Africa is full of despots willing to pay Wagner thugs to do what they do. Current Wagner guys have options. My bet is most of them find other employment, or just quit and go home. I would not bet on long life expectancies for the dumb ones who continue on as if nothing has happened. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Dominion21: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By mercersfinest4: WRT to Prigozhin, I am very surprised he survived 2 months after his failed coup. I am happy to see him gone. He was a really bad guy and, as an added bonus, his murder seems to be a divisive internal issue in Russia. Putin does seem to be rolling up any potential competitors and critics. WRT to Wagner, my bet is that they don’t do a thing. If they couldn’t execute a coup with top leadership alive, I don’t expect them to execute further plans with leadership dead. WRT to Russia and Russians, in general, it truly is the world’s biggest trailer park. I agree. This whole affair has been handled badly by Putin et al from the beginning. First looking weak, now looking weak AND vengeful. I also doubt Wagner, as an organization, does anything in response, other than heartfelt condolences about Prig. I would not be surprised if one day in the future, someone puts a bullet in Putin, Shoighu, or whoever, and it turns out the shooter was associated with Wagner. There are a lot of violent, sociopathic, armed and trained veterans around Russia. This mess is NOT a net positive for Putin's protection detail. I bet Russia has a J6 style roundup of Wagner and ex-Wagner veterans in the near future. I doubt anyone still working for PMC Wagner will attempt direct action against Putin; on that we agree. However, the Wagner people (especially in Africa) may well react to Piggy’s execution. Look at what kicked off the “assault on Moscow:” someone in the Kremlin ordered every Wagner goon to sign a contract with the Russian Army, effectively making Wagner disappear. Had that happened, Piggy’s power would have disappeared, which is why he had to do - something. My guess is Shoigu or Gerasimov ordered Wagner to simply dissolve and join the Russia army. Piggy’s Moscow feint made sense in that light. What now though, with his death? Without Piggy, will all of Wagner simply roll-over, join the Russian army, take a massive pay cut, and follow army orders to jump into the meat-grinder? I doubt that. Current Wagner guys must understand that Putin now sees THEM as a threat too, to be eliminated ASAP. PMC Wagner also know they are mercenaries; nothing more. There are other oligarchs looking to hire mercenaries. Africa is full of despots willing to pay Wagner thugs to do what they do. Current Wagner guys have options. My bet is most of them find other employment, or just quit and go home. I would not bet on long life expectancies for the dumb ones who continue on as if nothing has happened. Watched an interview with a Russian expert on Times Radio who had the best one-line take on Prigozhin assassination. Words to the effect of: “This isn’t Putin demonstrating his strength, this is Putin attempting to look like he is strong.” |
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck: You'd be correct. A poster here quipped in the debate thread something like, "Where'd all the Ukiebros in the audience come from?" And I replied something like "That's most of America," with a link to that recent poll in The Hill. Turns out life is different outside the bubble! View Quote By bubble do you mean padded room wearing a helmet and finger painting with poop? |
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Blameless, the tempest will be just that
So try as you may, feeble, your attempt to atone Your words to erase all the damage cannot A tempest must be just that |
Originally Posted By Dominion21: I doubt anyone still working for PMC Wagner will attempt direct action against Putin; on that we agree. However, the Wagner people (especially in Africa) may well react to Piggy’s execution. Look at what kicked off the “assault on Moscow:” someone in the Kremlin ordered every Wagner goon to sign a contract with the Russian Army, effectively making Wagner disappear. Had that happened, Piggy’s power would have disappeared, which is why he had to do - something. My guess is Shoigu or Gerasimov ordered Wagner to simply dissolve and join the Russia army. Piggy’s Moscow feint made sense in that light. What now though, with his death? Without Piggy, will all of Wagner simply roll-over, join the Russian army, take a massive pay cut, and follow army orders to jump into the meat-grinder? I doubt that. Current Wagner guys must understand that Putin now sees THEM as a threat too, to be eliminated ASAP. PMC Wagner also know they are mercenaries; nothing more. There are other oligarchs looking to hire mercenaries. Africa is full of despots willing to pay Wagner thugs to do what they do. Current Wagner guys have options. My bet is most of them find other employment, or just quit and go home. I would not bet on long life expectancies for the dumb ones who continue on as if nothing has happened. View Quote Time will tell how it goes. The "old" Russia would disappear people just for bumping into the wrong person, fearing outside knowledge or influence like a deadly virus. Putin and the MOD will have to balance their need for competent soldiers with their paranoia. |
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Originally Posted By GBTX01:
View Quote Moving back and forth to stay on a non mined area if not why not just move left to right when fighting in a tank? |
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Originally Posted By atavistic: Uh, no. Twitter Poster is an expert in cyber. It shows. You can hope if UKR moves 5 miles, Russia will fold. If that's the case, there's probably no need to send any more armaments. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By atavistic: Originally Posted By RockNwood: I would guess they are very likely to achieve another 10km before October. That makes for a very cold and lonely winter if transport is cut off.
"(Then) it’s very hard to see how the Russian army can continue to fight" "Ukrainians must advance another 10km southward to cover all the terrain between them and the Sea of Azov. "Ukraine is now closing in on this goal at several spots along the frontline... "Once this happens, there is (forgive the use of this old term) a domino effect" Crimea would be supplied only by the Kerch Bridge, whose capacity "will likely not be enough to supply both the western part of the front and the civilian population" https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3197-2931456.jpg Uh, no. Twitter Poster is an expert in cyber. It shows. You can hope if UKR moves 5 miles, Russia will fold. If that's the case, there's probably no need to send any more armaments. No, if they make it another 5-10 miles they’ll need plenty of arty, GMLRS, AND GLSDBs to shit all over those Russian supply lines. Keep it coming and keep the Russians and their shills squealing. |
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck: You'd be correct. A poster here quipped in the debate thread something like, "Where'd all the Ukiebros in the audience come from?" And I replied something like "That's most of America," with a link to that recent poll in The Hill. Turns out life is different outside the bubble! View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck: Originally Posted By RockNwood: I don’t follow much of the R churn yet but saw this video exchange and was impressed that the crowd seemed to be cheering strongly for Haley’s points about Putin and Ukraine aid. Feel free to correct my impression if you follow this more than I.
You'd be correct. A poster here quipped in the debate thread something like, "Where'd all the Ukiebros in the audience come from?" And I replied something like "That's most of America," with a link to that recent poll in The Hill. Turns out life is different outside the bubble! Fantastic. I hope the Nyetbro candidates took note. |
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Deplorable fan of liberty
“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” |
Originally Posted By RockNwood: Another Russian agent near Bakhmut. Life in prison likely. I think former residents of Bakhmut and gold star families out to get first crack at her. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3200-2931639.jpg
The perpetrator turned out to be a teacher from one of the lyceums in Kramatorsk, who worked for the main directorate of the general staff of the armed forces of the russion federation. The court chose a preventive measure for her in the form of detention. The investigation is ongoing. The perpetrator faces life imprisonment. View Quote Even their teachers are or act traitorous? |
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Originally Posted By stgdz: So why the delay in production? My understanding is they have to get the lines up and running but why not build2 with the radar seeker head? Cost? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By stgdz: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By stgdz: Originally Posted By theskuh: Originally Posted By Zhukov: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I agree, there are a ton of variables, but it will give the Ukrainians a good deal of flexibility when it arrives in numbers. I don't think the Russian air defenses will be able to intercept it as easily as some think. Different flight profiles and maneuvers could fool the SAM radars at deciding what the target is. https://www.arabnews.com/sites/default/files/userimages/20/gr_glsdb.png Interesting data from Wikipedia: The cost is undisclosed; however the SDB used in GLSDB has a cost to the U.S. military of about $40,000,[16][33] with the accompanying M26 rocket coming from obsolete inventory. The amount to be allocated to each GLSDB of the cost of the "inter-stage adapter", the cost to develop a launcher-container, and the other GLSDB development and production costs of Boeing and Saab is unknown.[34] For comparison purposes, the cost of a single M31 missile is estimated at $500,000,[17] though this may be the "export price", always higher than the amount charged to the U.S. army.[35] According to the U.S. army's budget, it will pay about $168,000 for each GMLRS in 2023.[36][37] The GLSDB is being offered to Ukraine as a long distance alternative to the 300 km (190 mi) ATACMS missiles,[38][39] which have a price per unit estimated to be well over $1M USD.[40] The other long distance alternative is the 250 km (160 mi) Storm Shadow missiles,[41] each of which is estimated to cost around 2m ($2.5m USD, FY2023). This is also noteworthy: Although the GLSDB can be launched from either MLRS or HIMARS, it also comes with its own launcher, which resembles a nondescript 20-foot (6.1 m) shipping container, making it easier to create decoys and more difficult for the enemy to locate and target. I believe there is also an air launched version. Which along with the F16's on the way may give some decent options as well. I am not sure how the ground launch version differs from the air launch. I think its named gbu53b but having a bunch of those used by lofting or fired at standoff distances would probably be super helpful. Can the glsdb hit moving targets? I remember Boeing and some air force higher up reroute the specs of some bomb project that initially would hit moving targets and then she changed it to stationary and got prison time for it. It can if the sdb is the later version called SDB II, Ukrainian forces are getting the older SDB I which is GPS and stationary targets only. So why the delay in production? My understanding is they have to get the lines up and running but why not build2 with the radar seeker head? Cost? The holdup in production is for the bracket to hold the already finished sdb I to the already completed m26 rocket. This is what will be provided for Ukrainian use, and this is up to Boeing and Saab to do the work since it is their design. We currently for our US military are making both the sdb I and sdb II at the two different plants to keep up stockpiles and have options when hitting the enemy. The sdb II is a bit more complex, and expensive, so we are keeping those for ourselves mostly, so you are correct on cost being the big factor. sdb I cost: $40,000. sdb II cost: $115,000 |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Originally Posted By 7empest: By bubble do you mean padded room wearing a helmet and finger painting with poop? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By 7empest: Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck: You'd be correct. A poster here quipped in the debate thread something like, "Where'd all the Ukiebros in the audience come from?" And I replied something like "That's most of America," with a link to that recent poll in The Hill. Turns out life is different outside the bubble! By bubble do you mean padded room wearing a helmet and finger painting with poop? It has devolved to that at this point. You have to be incredibly blind to Russian objectives and means, and incredibly obstinate to cling to the “not a penny for Ukraine” platform. And shamefully ignorant of how Reagan man handled the Soviets. |
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Deplorable fan of liberty
“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” |
pdf file here. https://t.co/8SdKwQoW87 |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Originally Posted By LesBaer45: I guess I'm used to former F500 companies I worked for that had specific rules about what level of employees could travel together depending on classification. Several times during big conferences or company meetings we wound up on different flights as we had to divide up the group. View Quote I dunno, these were not exceptionally bright people. In Prigozhin's younger years he was in a gang, went to Prison for 12 years, when he got out of the penal colony he went to college but dropped out, started a catering company... and Russia is not a meritocracy, he got government contracts because Putin liked him. Sure, he's got street smarts and charisma but I think we can all point to a lot of things he did that was just plain dumb. Utkin was a special forces soldier, and then a mercenary. According to Wikipedia: "Utkin also reportedly called himself Wagner after German composer Richard Wagner, because his work was greatly admired by Adolf Hitler and was appropriated by the Nazis. Allegedly he greeted subordinates by saying "Heil!", wore a Wehrmacht field cap around Wagner training grounds, and sometimes signed his name with the lightning bolt insignia of the SS." Quite strange that a Russian merc group would use a German name. I'm a fan of Peter Zeihan's and he says that just before and after the USSR collapse there was a collapse of the education system and a lot of brain drain. Those that were educated before that are starting to retire. So things like the Yamal liquefied natural gas plant were built by foreigners, and they've pulled out. So it's questionable whether they can maintain these things on their own. There aren't a lot of people around that know how to run a government either. But I'm digressing. They could've been shot and thrown on the plane, or Prigozhin could still be alive, but I'm not surprised a bunch of thugs and gangsters didn't plan for continuity. Apparently Russia is not the iron curtain it used to be and it's very leaky. There's a story to be told here and it'll come out. If anybody had any doubts the country has no rule of law and is run like a mob this is proof though. |
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Time will tell how it goes. The "old" Russia would disappear people just for bumping into the wrong person, fearing outside knowledge or influence like a deadly virus. Putin and the MOD will have to balance their need for competent soldiers with their paranoia. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Dominion21: I doubt anyone still working for PMC Wagner will attempt direct action against Putin; on that we agree. However, the Wagner people (especially in Africa) may well react to Piggy’s execution. Look at what kicked off the “assault on Moscow:” someone in the Kremlin ordered every Wagner goon to sign a contract with the Russian Army, effectively making Wagner disappear. Had that happened, Piggy’s power would have disappeared, which is why he had to do - something. My guess is Shoigu or Gerasimov ordered Wagner to simply dissolve and join the Russia army. Piggy’s Moscow feint made sense in that light. What now though, with his death? Without Piggy, will all of Wagner simply roll-over, join the Russian army, take a massive pay cut, and follow army orders to jump into the meat-grinder? I doubt that. Current Wagner guys must understand that Putin now sees THEM as a threat too, to be eliminated ASAP. PMC Wagner also know they are mercenaries; nothing more. There are other oligarchs looking to hire mercenaries. Africa is full of despots willing to pay Wagner thugs to do what they do. Current Wagner guys have options. My bet is most of them find other employment, or just quit and go home. I would not bet on long life expectancies for the dumb ones who continue on as if nothing has happened. Time will tell how it goes. The "old" Russia would disappear people just for bumping into the wrong person, fearing outside knowledge or influence like a deadly virus. Putin and the MOD will have to balance their need for competent soldiers with their paranoia. Looks like he knew it was coming https://www.businessinsider.com/prigozhin-tried-to-save-business-empire-days-before-death-report-2023-8 So the Kremlin is now trying to start its own merc group by recruiting wagnerites, butttttttttt They no longer have a grey market for terror and how many will switch sides knowing they may end up on the Frontline in Ukraine. |
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Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Great Twitter thread on the relationship between Putin and Lukashenko. Highly recommend giving it a read. View Quote That is a great thread. Non X link: https://t.co/LA380uj5GK I suspect it has turned for the worse now. Lukashenko offered asylum to Wagner and bragged about using post-mutiny Wagner to train Belarusian army. Since the special “gift basket” he has been backpedaling hard. He seems scared. I give him less than a month before Putin gets around to cleaning him up. |
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Deplorable fan of liberty
“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” |
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
pdf file here. https://t.co/8SdKwQoW87 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4WWq1gagAA2sXj?format=jpg&name=900x900 View Quote Already outdated as there are numerous COTS V/TOL fixed-wing sUAS now. Has the advantages of range/endurance with the V/TOL advantages of multi-copters. (The manual describes fixed-wings and rotary-wing/multicopters the way manned aircraft are described. sUAS are not like manned aircraft. Lots of things you can do with sUAS you simply can't with full-sized aircraft.) |
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Originally Posted By RockNwood: I don’t follow much of the R churn yet but saw this video exchange and was impressed that the crowd seemed to be cheering strongly for Haley’s points about Putin and Ukraine aid. Feel free to correct my impression if you follow this more than I.
View Quote I thought Nikki did a great job exposing Vivek's lack of international knowledge. Nikki was UN ambassador, so she just ran circles around Vivek, especially regarding the Ukraine issue. Vivek's proposal is to freeze the lines as they are. Allow Russia to keep the territory they have seized in return for a pledge to cease all hostilities. This also comes with a promise to Russia that Ukraine WON'T be allowed to join NATO. WTF? |
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