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Posted: 10/27/2021 8:27:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: The_Beer_Slayer]
It says it's been moved, but the link just takes me to the Community page. What gives?


This is now the active "shit (might be) is definitely happening in Ukraine" thread.

News links, thanks to BerettaGuy:
Originally Posted By BerettaGuy:
LINKS TO UKRAINIAN NEWS SOURCES IN ENGLISH

Kyiv Post

Ukrainian News

UKRInform

EUROMAIDEN PRESS

New Voice of Ukraine

Kyiv Independent

Ukraine World

InterFax Ukraine

UATV

Ukrainian Journal

Official Website of the President of Ukraine

Ukrainian Ministry of Defense

Save these links. I can't post all the headlines like I've done in the past - too much news and too often.
View Quote


Please @ me with additional stuff to be added here. I don't currently have time to properly curate this thread otherwise.

New news link c/o berettaguy:

Ukrainian Pravda
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/

Stop fake, anti - disinformation site:
https://www.stopfake.org/en/main/
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 9:35:56 PM EDT
[#1]
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Originally Posted By m35ben:
Some Ukraine farmers aren't too far off from this picture.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/390973/IMG-20221021-WA0011-2571423.jpg
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I’m just amused that there are farmers in Ukraine with more armor than the Marines right now.

Link Posted: 10/21/2022 9:44:25 PM EDT
[#2]
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 9:49:25 PM EDT
[#3]
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Originally Posted By JAD762:


I'm just amused that there are farmers in Ukraine with more armor than the Marines right now.

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Well yes on tanks
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 9:50:29 PM EDT
[#4]
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Wow... in 2022, a fresh new Stinger will cost you close to half a mil, up from $40k in 1988.
The advertised price is like $200k each, but the program cost brings it up to that to pay for updating the design and restarting production. After the first batch is finished in 2025 or so, that might drop down to a quarter mil each, depending on quantities ordered and inflation.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 9:50:39 PM EDT
[#5]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


I always scratch my head when I see those lists as well.
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:
Originally Posted By elcope:


The production rate from the manufacturer.


I’m curious what war we might fight where 750ish missile launchers aren’t enough but 765ish make the difference.


I always scratch my head when I see those lists as well.


I’m curious how accurate the public inventory numbers are… order of magnitude probably correct perhaps?  The single digit resolution implies a real count of it at some point.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 9:51:04 PM EDT
[#6]




Link Posted: 10/21/2022 9:51:06 PM EDT
[#7]
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If they lack the resources to produce any new aircraft, does it matter?
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 9:56:02 PM EDT
[#8]
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Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:


Also, are they ignorant of their own history? Russia lost WWI, but they got absolutely wrecked in the 1904 Russo-Japanese war.
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I'm pretty sure it's not what they teach them in school.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 9:57:03 PM EDT
[#9]
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Maybe they can repackage their products as realistic targets.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:04:17 PM EDT
[#10]
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Originally Posted By Alex9661:


I'm pretty sure it's not what they teach them in school.
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It's probably like the japanese schools that teach something like "..and then for reasons we still do not fully understand, the Americans dropped bombs on us."
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:04:34 PM EDT
[#11]
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I wonder if the coming lack of income is why they licensed the RuAF red star to a local incumbent State representative to use as his campaign logo?*


*not really on the licensing.

Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:12:14 PM EDT
[#12]
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Originally Posted By Prime:




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lost his left thumb
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:21:11 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Freiheit8472] [#13]
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Originally Posted By doc540:


lost his left thumb
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Originally Posted By doc540:
Originally Posted By Prime:






lost his left thumb


Where do you see that? It looked ok in that video.

Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:21:37 PM EDT
[#14]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

That’s an excellent find.  It would be interesting to have some more context for the video.  Are we looking at successive Russian attempts to infiltrate small groups?  Or Is this the tail end of a large-scale infantry attack?  Probably the first, but there have been rumors of Russian “infantry wave” attacks here and there.
That scene is WWI-esque.  I counted at least ten dead bodies strewn around besides the 4-5 men in the “current” Russian attack.  Imagine attacking through that.
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Exactly. Luckily for the UA guys that drone totally broke the back of the RU defenders or attackers (I'd also love more context, but it's just one little skirmish among many thousand). And that one UA guy with the cigarette giving the thumbs up surrounded by dead bodies and looking like he wouldn't want to be anywhere else in the world... I'd like to make him my avatar.

Pretty soon we will be seeing footage of guys killing each other in trenches with spades!
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:25:31 PM EDT
[#15]
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Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

This needs repeating. The absolute worst kind of evil comes from people who believe themselves perfect moral superiors to another and act according to that conception.
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Exactly. Being brought up in the same system as some of those depraved RU guys, I may have ended up worse than them (I strive to over achieve). The real evil animals are the leaders that unleash this shit knowingly, not the scared, abused, damaged men fighting.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:27:17 PM EDT
[#16]
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Originally Posted By Freiheit8472:


Where do you see that? It looked ok in that video.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/539199/7DAC5659-7D09-4C9B-B5B3-18B55DFAEBA3-2571628.jpg
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1:13

took it right off as he was holding his AK
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:27:58 PM EDT
[#17]
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Originally Posted By dillydilly:

Right?!
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From what I have seen so far, although I am sure there are some acts of barbarity among individuals, but not on a systematic level like with the RU. Maybe I'm a sucker for UA propaganda.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:30:05 PM EDT
[#18]
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:


I’m curious what war we might fight where 750ish missile launchers aren’t enough but 765ish make the difference.
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I agree. But the worry is probably not the launchers but rather the ammo. I bet the 16 we gave to the UA are plum wore the fuck out from firing night and day.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:31:13 PM EDT
[#19]
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Originally Posted By doc540:


1:13

took it right off as he was holding his AK
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Originally Posted By doc540:
Originally Posted By Freiheit8472:


Where do you see that? It looked ok in that video.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/539199/7DAC5659-7D09-4C9B-B5B3-18B55DFAEBA3-2571628.jpg


1:13

took it right off as he was holding his AK



:-(

I had the wrong video
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:34:29 PM EDT
[#20]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



How many decoy MALD's and MALD-J's do you have available?  Can I use older TALD's?   What is the composition of the task group?    Can I employ Active Jamming with EF-18's and HARM equipped groups to deter the enemies detection of and firing at the incoming cruise missiles?

Am I limited to using Harpoons only?   Or can I use LRASM's?    Are there any US submarines in the area to make a coordinated attack?

I have so many questions.
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Worse than Russian mumbo-jumbo...
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:37:07 PM EDT
[#21]
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Originally Posted By R0N:

USNI

Breaking Defense


CSiS
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Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By NEXT23:
Originally Posted By R0N:

How many LRASMs and NSMs are we gettng a year and how does that number compare to the firing doctrine to conduct a threat task group take down?



So are you saying we are being weakened on purpose?

Being weakened out of necessity, hoping we will have time to catch our breathe in 2 years?

Or I just need to buy stock in the MIC






Don’t know if it is deliberate, un-intended or wishful thinking that nothing will happen between now and the ability to rebuild.


The ability to rebuilt what?
Our stocks of M113s?
Our stocks of 1991 HARM missiles?
Please provide links to hard data showing that critical modern weapons systems/munitions are being drawn below critical levels.

USNI

Breaking Defense


CSiS


China will be a naval/air war.  Stingers, Javelins, and even GMLRS wont be major players.
But by all means keep trying to sow discord, comrade.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:39:54 PM EDT
[#22]
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:

HIMARS? 155mm? I dont know. But R0n seems to have info that we are running low on certain things.
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:
Originally Posted By Capta:

The ability to rebuilt what?
Our stocks of M113s?
Our stocks of 1991 HARM missiles?
Please provide links to hard data showing that critical modern weapons systems/munitions are being drawn below critical levels.

HIMARS? 155mm? I dont know. But R0n seems to have info that we are running low on certain things.

The idea that a certain poster has some kind of inside baseball is hogwash.  There’s an internet connection, access to google, and an agenda.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:41:40 PM EDT
[#23]
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Originally Posted By ludder093:
the US has over 400 HIMAR launchers. How does giving up 16 make them "limited" They just announced they are setting up to double production.
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Originally Posted By ludder093:
the US has over 400 HIMAR launchers. How does giving up 16 make them "limited" They just announced they are setting up to double production.

Obviously 400 is “limited”.  Even 1,000,000,000 HIMARS would be, by definition, a limited supply.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:42:15 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Freiheit8472] [#24]
Well I’m going to the event tomorrow with James and Rip. I want to thank everyone for giving me such a good handle on everything. I wouldn’t have even known about the event if it weren’t for the posts here.

I plan to share what Gentlemanfarmer has been doing as well as the likes of Dillydilly’s family, M35ben…and others’ (sorry I can’t remember all the screen names) anecdotes (if I even get that kind of facetime outside of a selfie).

I guess if anyone has anything in particular they’d like communicated I’ll try my best. I did exchange a couple messages with James and he liked what everyone has been doing in our little necks of the woods of course.

ETA: @Almightytallest are you available to come? I can pick you up or meet you there. It would be another great arfcom coming together
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:43:03 PM EDT
[#25]
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Originally Posted By elcope:


The production rate from the manufacturer.
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Originally Posted By elcope:
Originally Posted By ludder093:
the US has over 400 HIMAR launchers. How does giving up 16 make them "limited"


The production rate from the manufacturer.

So what situation are we involved in where 384 HIMARS will be inadequate, but 400 HIMARS will be adequate?
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:52:11 PM EDT
[#26]
This may have been posted (I haven't caught up with the last few pages), but I think it's possible that the Russians may push through Belarus towards Lviv, as opposed to pushing towards Kyiv again. The main reason I think that is, it gives them an opportunity to directly attack Ukrainian supply lines and attempt to interrupt the flow of Western weapons. Of course, the Russian and perhaps Belarusian troops in Western Ukraine would eventually get slaughtered, but that doesn't matter to Putin. Honestly, I think this is one of Putin's few remaining moves.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:53:46 PM EDT
[#27]
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Originally Posted By Prime:



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1:13 in the video linked, dude got his thumb shot off perfectly in the camera frame.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:54:27 PM EDT
[#28]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

So what situation are we involved in where 384 HIMARS will be inadequate, but 400 HIMARS will be adequate?
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If they aren't on the inventory we'll have to requisition more just to get back what we had, and we'll never have as many as if we'd started the requisition process from a base line of 400.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:55:52 PM EDT
[#29]
Also, as much as I hate to say it, I think Russia is doing the right thing by withdrawing from Kherson. The situation there grows more and more untenable by the day, and I've thought it's been an outright disaster waiting to happen for the Russians for a few months now. As painful as it's going to be, the smart decision is indeed to withdraw and attempt to prevent the loss of what combat power they still have.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 10:56:55 PM EDT
[#30]
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Originally Posted By 1Andy2:



"Europe needs to wake up to the fact that everything bad happening to you right now is because of the United States.  Your best friend is Russia."


That's where I opened it.

Look at his eyes.   He does NOT believe what he's saying.
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Originally Posted By 1Andy2:
Originally Posted By m35ben:
If anyone wants to get angry here is Scott " the idiot" Ritter live streaming

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLbjRS6J60Y



"Europe needs to wake up to the fact that everything bad happening to you right now is because of the United States.  Your best friend is Russia."


That's where I opened it.

Look at his eyes.   He does NOT believe what he's saying.

That dude is the definition of kompromat.

If he got convicted for jerking it on a webcam for a fake 15 year old, imagine what the Russians have on him.

Link Posted: 10/21/2022 11:01:40 PM EDT
[#31]
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Originally Posted By ludder093:
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I don’t think he likes Vlad very much.

Succinct.

Sweet.

To the point.

10/10
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 11:05:17 PM EDT
[#32]
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Originally Posted By Former11BRAVO:


You may be right about the resolve, but we have no manufacturing capacity to speak of.

China, on the other hand, does.

Although it's true their stuff may pale in quality to ours, a certain Russian (or, Georgian, more accurately, as I recall) once said, "Quantity has a quality of it's own" (or something to that effect).
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Originally Posted By Former11BRAVO:
Originally Posted By apr67:



How much of what has been given to Ukraine would the US use against China?  I truly do not think we are going to face a large land war with China as that violates rule 1, never get involved in a land war in Asia.

Second.  I think if the US faced an attack from (whoever) directly, you would see the resolve you haven't seen in this country since 9/11.  The amount of weapons we would make in 6 months would dwarf what we make in 6 years now.

Of course, these are just opinions, and only mine, but they are all I got.


You may be right about the resolve, but we have no manufacturing capacity to speak of.

China, on the other hand, does.

Although it's true their stuff may pale in quality to ours, a certain Russian (or, Georgian, more accurately, as I recall) once said, "Quantity has a quality of it's own" (or something to that effect).


No capacity…..you have no idea what you are talking about
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 11:05:58 PM EDT
[#33]
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 11:08:23 PM EDT
[#34]
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Originally Posted By Prime:




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So are those Belarusians on UKR side or RU side?  I know Belarus is on RU side.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 11:11:02 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea] [#35]
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 11:12:28 PM EDT
[#36]
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Originally Posted By Capta:


China will be a naval/air war.  Stingers, Javelins, and even GMLRS wont be major players.
But by all means keep trying to sow discord, comrade.
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Not jumping in on either side of this shit show but if China and the US Navy and Airforce are actively engaged in hostilities there's a better than even chance Beijing tells the norks to push south and backs them up in the attempt. In that case we're going to need all the GMLRS we can get our hands on for counter battery at the very least. Thinking the conflict will be contained to solely naval or air engagements is overly optimistic.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 11:18:07 PM EDT
[#37]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

So what situation are we involved in where 384 HIMARS will be inadequate, but 400 HIMARS will be adequate?
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For the want of a nail, the shoe was lost.
For the want of a shoe, the horse was lost.
For the want of a horse, the rider was lost.
For the want of a rider, the skirmish was lost...
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 11:18:52 PM EDT
[#38]
I check once in a while this community group in the Russian platform VK from Krasnoturinsk, a town of 50 000 in the Ural Mountains.
Yesterday they reported that another one of the freshly mobilized from the town was killed - I think that makes it at least two, plus at least one more from a neighboring villages, all of them mobilized in the end of September.





Things must be really bad if they send people without any training straight into battle.

https://m.vk.com/wall-176370040_77647
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 11:27:59 PM EDT
[#39]
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Originally Posted By DASJUDEN:


Not jumping in on either side of this shit show but if China and the US Navy and Airforce are actively engaged in hostilities there's a better than even chance Beijing tells the norks to push south and backs them up in the attempt. In that case we're going to need all the GMLRS we can get our hands on for counter battery at the very least. Thinking the conflict will be contained to solely naval or air engagements is overly optimistic.
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USFK said as much https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/09/21/national/defense/Korea-South-Korea-Taiwan/20220921174534184.html
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 11:29:32 PM EDT
[#40]
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Originally Posted By R0N:

The MFOM is the bases of most of the shaping fires planned by ground forces and intended to make up for the aerial fires they won't be getting in an air-contested environment
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That’s why I said launchers and not munitions. Whoever thought that 45,000 or whatever in inventory was enough is an idiot.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 11:32:21 PM EDT
[#41]
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Originally Posted By darkd0r:

For the want of a nail, the shoe was lost.
For the want of a shoe, the horse was lost.
For the want of a horse, the rider was lost.
For the want of a rider, the skirmish was lost...
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Originally Posted By darkd0r:
Originally Posted By Capta:

So what situation are we involved in where 384 HIMARS will be inadequate, but 400 HIMARS will be adequate?

For the want of a nail, the shoe was lost.
For the want of a shoe, the horse was lost.
For the want of a horse, the rider was lost.
For the want of a rider, the skirmish was lost...

Ergo, not one single round of 5.56 can be given to Ukraine because that last 5.56 round launched at the proper trajectory could’ve killed that one extra Chinese soldier that wins or loses the war.
Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 11:34:06 PM EDT
[#42]
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Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast:
This may have been posted (I haven't caught up with the last few pages), but I think it's possible that the Russians may push through Belarus towards Lviv, as opposed to pushing towards Kyiv again. The main reason I think that is, it gives them an opportunity to directly attack Ukrainian supply lines and attempt to interrupt the flow of Western weapons. Of course, the Russian and perhaps Belarusian troops in Western Ukraine would eventually get slaughtered, but that doesn't matter to Putin. Honestly, I think this is one of Putin's few remaining moves.
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Pretty sure they will get their asses handed to them if they try. They have sucked everywhere else, and this time Ukraine will be ready to splatter their corpses if they cross the border.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 11:35:51 PM EDT
[#43]
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Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast:
Also, as much as I hate to say it, I think Russia is doing the right thing by withdrawing from Kherson. The situation there grows more and more untenable by the day, and I've thought it's been an outright disaster waiting to happen for the Russians for a few months now. As painful as it's going to be, the smart decision is indeed to withdraw and attempt to prevent the loss of what combat power they still have.
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They can't get all that equipment out on pontoons. They will be fortunate to get troops out only.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 11:37:36 PM EDT
[#44]
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Originally Posted By DASJUDEN:


Not jumping in on either side of this shit show but if China and the US Navy and Airforce are actively engaged in hostilities there's a better than even chance Beijing tells the norks to push south and backs them up in the attempt. In that case we're going to need all the GMLRS we can get our hands on for counter battery at the very least. Thinking the conflict will be contained to solely naval or air engagements is overly optimistic.
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Originally Posted By DASJUDEN:
Originally Posted By Capta:


China will be a naval/air war.  Stingers, Javelins, and even GMLRS wont be major players.
But by all means keep trying to sow discord, comrade.


Not jumping in on either side of this shit show but if China and the US Navy and Airforce are actively engaged in hostilities there's a better than even chance Beijing tells the norks to push south and backs them up in the attempt. In that case we're going to need all the GMLRS we can get our hands on for counter battery at the very least. Thinking the conflict will be contained to solely naval or air engagements is overly optimistic.

So why would we provide them to South Korea to help destroy one of our two strategic adversaries (China and its proxy NK) but not to Ukraine to destroy our other strategic adversary, Russia?
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 11:46:30 PM EDT
[#45]
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Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast:
Also, as much as I hate to say it, I think Russia is doing the right thing by withdrawing from Kherson. The situation there grows more and more untenable by the day, and I've thought it's been an outright disaster waiting to happen for the Russians for a few months now. As painful as it's going to be, the smart decision is indeed to withdraw and attempt to prevent the loss of what combat power they still have.
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If true I agree, from an objective standpoint.  It also shows what a catastrophe the Kerch Bridge hit was for Russia.  It fucked their logistics system hard and forced everything to run the HIMARS gauntlet from the Russian border to Kherson.  Without that they may well have been able to hold out.  Again, speaking conditionally.
That said, I’m still suspicious that there won’t be a catch.  Whether it’s blowing the dam, staging a chemical attack, false-flagging themselves or Ukrainian civilians, or even nukes, nothing should be considered off the table for Russia right now.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 11:51:40 PM EDT
[#46]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

So why would we provide them to South Korea to help destroy one of our two strategic adversaries (China and its proxy NK) but not to Ukraine to destroy our other strategic adversary, Russia?
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I don't know if you're being intentionally dense or you're just not aware that we have US troops stationed in South Korea while we don't have US troops in Ukraine. We're not providing them to South Korea we're providing them to ourselves. It's not going to be South Koreans using those GMLRS, it's going to be 8th Army.
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 11:53:41 PM EDT
[#47]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

Ergo, not one single round of 5.56 can be given to Ukraine because that last 5.56 round launched at the proper trajectory could’ve killed that one extra Chinese soldier that wins or loses the war.
/media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/87D543F5-C33B-475C-95CD-45D86133DAC9-476.gif
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Obama / Biden White House staff consulted - they determined ground war at final phase - this is your current NSC
War Games: The Battle For Taiwan
Link Posted: 10/21/2022 11:57:51 PM EDT
[#48]
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Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast:
This may have been posted (I haven't caught up with the last few pages), but I think it's possible that the Russians may push through Belarus towards Lviv, as opposed to pushing towards Kyiv again. The main reason I think that is, it gives them an opportunity to directly attack Ukrainian supply lines and attempt to interrupt the flow of Western weapons. Of course, the Russian and perhaps Belarusian troops in Western Ukraine would eventually get slaughtered, but that doesn't matter to Putin. Honestly, I think this is one of Putin's few remaining moves.
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I don’t think Russian decision-making is fully rational but I don’t think they’re morons either.
If the numerical estimate of forces is accurate there is no way a worthwhile offensive can be mounted or sustained.
Ukrainian supply lines are shorter, Russian supply lines are longer.
Ukraine is generating forces in western Ukraine, and significant units which we know nothing about are probably available to oppose any push.
The terrain (marshes) is extremely limiting, with limited roads which are easy to block and easy to interdict.  You can bet that the reasonable invasion routes are already mined to hell and gone.

The most likely rationale is simply to pin UA forces to the north while training at least SOME Russian units to a reasonable standard.
A very distant second is the creation of a western force to invade Poland after a nuclear strike.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 12:03:39 AM EDT
[#49]
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Originally Posted By m35ben:
If anyone wants to get angry here is Scott " the idiot" Ritter live streaming

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLbjRS6J60Y
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Have a seat over there.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 12:06:20 AM EDT
[#50]
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Originally Posted By DASJUDEN:


I don't know if you're being intentionally dense or you're just not aware that we have US troops stationed in South Korea while we don't have US troops in Ukraine. We're not providing them to South Korea we're providing them to ourselves. It's not going to be South Koreans using those GMLRS, it's going to be 8th Army.
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Originally Posted By DASJUDEN:
Originally Posted By Capta:

So why would we provide them to South Korea to help destroy one of our two strategic adversaries (China and its proxy NK) but not to Ukraine to destroy our other strategic adversary, Russia?


I don't know if you're being intentionally dense or you're just not aware that we have US troops stationed in South Korea while we don't have US troops in Ukraine. We're not providing them to South Korea we're providing them to ourselves. It's not going to be South Koreans using those GMLRS, it's going to be 8th Army.

The point is that the weapon systems that we paid for are being used to do exactly what they are intended to do - destroy our strategic enemies and do so without us even lifting a finger.  Destroying Russia as a strategic threat to the US and its allies is worth 100 times the price of what we’re spending.
It’s interesting how the shills latch onto and then mutually reinforce when they think an issue has traction.  Fortunately, shills are not making US policy decisions.
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