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Posted: 10/27/2021 8:27:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: The_Beer_Slayer]
It says it's been moved, but the link just takes me to the Community page. What gives?


This is now the active "shit (might be) is definitely happening in Ukraine" thread.

News links, thanks to BerettaGuy:
Originally Posted By BerettaGuy:
LINKS TO UKRAINIAN NEWS SOURCES IN ENGLISH

Kyiv Post

Ukrainian News

UKRInform

EUROMAIDEN PRESS

New Voice of Ukraine

Kyiv Independent

Ukraine World

InterFax Ukraine

UATV

Ukrainian Journal

Official Website of the President of Ukraine

Ukrainian Ministry of Defense

Save these links. I can't post all the headlines like I've done in the past - too much news and too often.
View Quote


Please @ me with additional stuff to be added here. I don't currently have time to properly curate this thread otherwise.

New news link c/o berettaguy:

Ukrainian Pravda
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/

Stop fake, anti - disinformation site:
https://www.stopfake.org/en/main/
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:27:48 PM EDT
[#1]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


I'm with you on this assessment, that is exactly what they have done in the past.  We had 7 months to move assets in place after the war started and the threats of nukes, so for me confidence is high.  We increase our ability by the day and are in a position where we could hit them without them knowing we are striking.

Lets just say that I do not lose sleep over it knowing what we are capable of.
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


This, chemical and nuclear weapons have to come from special stockpiles and moved to the location where they are to be fired from.  Those areas are watched very well by NATO and US intelligence.  I can't imagine a scenario where if the Russian forces were to use a WMD, that they wouldn't have an "accident" before it was fired, or attempts were made to intercept before hitting it's target.

Russia starting to move their NBC will be near the final stage of this fiasco. They will likely move their stuff around just as a provocation "see we are serious, you better back down". So I would not be surprised when we hear about RU nukes leaving the storage bunker. Will they use it? I give it 50:50.


I'm with you on this assessment, that is exactly what they have done in the past.  We had 7 months to move assets in place after the war started and the threats of nukes, so for me confidence is high.  We increase our ability by the day and are in a position where we could hit them without them knowing we are striking.

Lets just say that I do not lose sleep over it knowing what we are capable of.

Thanks to both of you.  Don't know why but I didn't think about
it that way.  Anxiety level down about two notches.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:31:00 PM EDT
[#2]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Orion_Shall_Rise:

Uhh no?

38 launchers could fit 39 times a year not day...or for 39 days straight which they probably have
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He’s counting stockpiled weapons, not simply pre-war production rate.  You’ve consciously clipped that out and ignored it.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:31:02 PM EDT
[#3]
Ermahgerd mobilization!

Some of you guys crack me up.

The disparity between the Russian situation and the Ukrainian situation couldn't be much more stark. Morale, intelligence, logistics, command, communications, technology, training... everything.

I don't think there is one thing of military significance Russia is doing better than Ukraine, and the deeper this war goes, the more one-sided this dynamic is getting.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:31:50 PM EDT
[#4]
Oldie but goodie:

Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:33:07 PM EDT
[#5]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Prime:
Let me unfuck my earlier post.


Russia releases 10 POWs through Saudi crown prince - Reuters




https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdMXsvuWQAII2GB?format=jpg&name=medium


Swedish Foreign Minister Confirms POWs enroute to Sweden
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/senaste-nytt-om-invasionen-av-ukraina/

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I expect they had to walk away from soldiers they fought with knowing they will be executed.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:33:27 PM EDT
[#6]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By THOT_Vaccine:

Things are getting nutty in Iran
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Why are they protesting?
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:34:29 PM EDT
[#7]
They're taking this Orc thing a little too seriously

Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Hking:
Russia finally sending the top tier units to the frontlines

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Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:36:15 PM EDT
[#8]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
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Protesting publicly is not a good idea.  That young man is now going to get a free one way ticket to an almost certain death in Ukraine.

The way to protest is to destroy military infrastructure. Blow up rail lines and equipment that carry military gear, blow up assembly points. And find the critical military personal and their headquarters and destroy them. Blow up factory's that make military gear and their feeder factories. Running your mouth in public is just a great way to get arrested. As we just seen.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:36:50 PM EDT
[#9]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Hking:
Russia finally sending the top tier units to the frontlines

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That would solve their problem with dead bodies, and rations at the same time.
Genius!
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:37:33 PM EDT
[#10]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By dillydilly:

Why are they protesting?
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By dillydilly:
Originally Posted By THOT_Vaccine:

Things are getting nutty in Iran

Why are they protesting?


A well known Journalist was murdered
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:39:46 PM EDT
[Last Edit: jough43] [#11]
Cannibal dude is a true Orc.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:40:50 PM EDT
[#12]
FVP is going to stream in tens of thousands of marginally equipped & trained reservists in winter while the regular army is demoralized, fatigued and decimated. UKR has marginal home field advantage, the Russian side is a basket case logistically for fighting material, survival material and medical care. Military leadership is lacking, to put it mildly. Enemy has the weapons you have (you gave it to them) and neat high tech stuff you don't have. Air power is generally a non-factor.

Between partisans and drones, any building the Russians gather in is subject to go boom. Even with their weapons, a guy on an iPhone can call in a strike in 30 seconds. Enjoy your time in the warm barracks having a meal when its zero degrees and snowing outside.

Why is this not going to be a turkey shoot?

As UKR stacks bodies, this gets more complicated. Darth Putin has painted himself into a corner - its hard to see a negotiated settlement. Russia at some point is going NBC, then who knows where this goes.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:42:22 PM EDT
[#13]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
Anyone else find it a bit amusing that on the same day Russia is basically threatening the west with the possible use of nuclear weapons, they also simultaneously decide to release U.S. and British citizens who were captured in eastern Ukraine and were basically on death row? It is almost like we are dealing with split personalities here or something with how incongruent these two actions appear.
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This is normal.

Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:43:08 PM EDT
[#14]


Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:43:51 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Dracster] [#15]
"More shots of the destroyed equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, after the unsuccessful assault on Pravdino in the Kherson region. At the end of the captured BTR-3E."

Telegram Video

Another Telegram Video
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:47:50 PM EDT
[#16]
https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/the_us_plans_double_or_triple_himars_gmlrs_atgm_and_mpads_production_in_a_year-4292.html

The U.S. Plans Double or Triple HIMARS, GMLRS, ATGM and MPADS Production in a Year

The USA wants to increase arms production in 2-3 times, involving allies. Ukraine could and should become not only a consumer of the weaponry but also important part of the producing chain

Army leaders with Congress’ support were working to triple domestic production of the 155mm howitzer rounds and at least double production of Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems launchers in the next few years, Defense One, American specialized media, reported citing Doug Bush, the U.S. Army’s acquisition chief.

“All that is underway and will all be foundational to supporting Ukraine and its conflict, but also replenishing ourselves and setting us up to support our allies,” Bush told reporters Wednesday.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:47:51 PM EDT
[#17]
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:47:54 PM EDT
[#18]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdM8E2gXgAMRYW1?format=jpg&name=medium
View Quote



How many damn towns are named oleksandrivika in Ukraine?  Jesus
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:50:22 PM EDT
[#19]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By SpaceGuy:
Looking at how its worded, and the info he presented, its likely a compromised AR15.com account thats being used by the Ruskies.
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He’s Finnish, they have every reason to take the Russians more seriously than we do.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:51:06 PM EDT
[#20]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Zhukov:
Zeihan's take on the mobilization fresh off the presses...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pt6sfPf1Z_Q
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Wow. The Ukranians have a lot of work left ahead of them.
They need all the long range projectiles we can give them so they can destroy all food and ammo transport hubs. It's a lot easier to defeat an army that wants to give up.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:51:49 PM EDT
[#21]
Good weather for Firms today.  1hr ago.



Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:52:24 PM EDT
[#22]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 1Andy2:



How many damn towns are named oleksandrivika in Ukraine?  Jesus
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Over 100...I thought the same thing and googled it long ago
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:52:38 PM EDT
[Last Edit: sq40] [#23]
Russia is in some serious shit.  Look at their population of 18-30yo men.  They have far more women than men too, which is very interesting.

Taking another 300,000 out of that group is going to sting.  

Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:53:39 PM EDT
[#24]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Zhukov:

And winter is approaching quickly..
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C’mon there’s gifs available! Also why isn’t this one in ARF memes?
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:54:08 PM EDT
[#25]






https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Andreyevich_Svechin
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:54:24 PM EDT
[#26]



Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:55:02 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Dracster] [#27]
""Azovstal" defender Kateryna "Ptashka" Polishchuk returned home"

(This is pretty quick after the vid of her alive dropped last week)


Attachment Attached File



(Looks like a few more were released as well)
Before

Attachment Attached File


Recently

Attachment Attached File



Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:55:02 PM EDT
[#28]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 1Andy2:



How many damn towns are named oleksandrivika in Ukraine?  Jesus
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 1Andy2:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdM8E2gXgAMRYW1?format=jpg&name=medium



How many damn towns are named oleksandrivika in Ukraine?  Jesus


It gets really confusing for the front line mappers, there were three towns with the exact same name 50km from each other in one instance.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:58:29 PM EDT
[#29]
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:58:36 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#30]







Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:58:55 PM EDT
[#31]
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:00:00 PM EDT
[#32]
I think the Russians are holding out for this winter to sue for peace.

Putin, if he's smart, will realize that going into this winter the territory that Russia holds is about as much as it's going to hold, ever inside Ukraine.  The winter and absence of Russian natural gas in Central Europe will put pressure on NATO.  The poor harvest in Ukraine and of course the destruction of buildings within it will make this winter very hard for the people of Ukraine.   Putin will probably see this winter, January or February time frame as the most opportune time to approach Ukraine/NATO with a peace deal that allows him to get recognition of the sovereignty of the Donetsk People's Republic and Crimea.  If Putin can "win" the freedom of the DPR he can take that to his people and say "I protected ethnic Russians, destroyed the NAZI Azov Battalion, and weakened Ukraine so that it will not present a threat to Russia (arguable, but he could sell that domestically). " Putin could admit that issues of corruption that he was not aware of had come to light during the conflict and did hamper some of Russia's goals, but argue that the overall campaign was still a success and discovery of those issues as it so happens were necessary to the future strength of Russia.  

Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:00:14 PM EDT
[#33]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Bassgasm:
Ermahgerd mobilization!

Some of you guys crack me up.

The disparity between the Russian situation and the Ukrainian situation couldn't be much more stark. Morale, intelligence, logistics, command, communications, technology, training... everything.

I don't think there is one thing of military significance Russia is doing better than Ukraine, and the deeper this war goes, the more one-sided this dynamic is getting.
View Quote

The only reason this entire scenario hasn’t turned into desert storm 2: Eastern European Boogaloo is because of nukes. So Russia has that one area locked down over Ukraine. Without nukes we’d be operating no fly zones over Russia by now, after nearly taking Moscow.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:00:48 PM EDT
[#34]
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NICE.

Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:02:41 PM EDT
[#35]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By atavistic:
As UKR stacks bodies, this gets more complicated. Darth Putin has painted himself into a corner - its hard to see a negotiated settlement. Russia at some point is going NBC, then who knows where this goes.
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Russia moves chemical weapons forward for staging and suddenly HIMARS hits the rail junction in Belgorod. Oops.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:02:54 PM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By KaerMorhenResident:
I think the Russians are holding out for this winter to sue for peace.

Putin, if he's smart, will realize that going into this winter the territory that Russia holds is about as much as it's going to hold, ever inside Ukraine.  The winter and absence of Russian natural gas in Central Europe will put pressure on NATO.  The poor harvest in Ukraine and of course the destruction of buildings within it will make this winter very hard for the people of Ukraine.   Putin will probably see this winter, January or February time frame as the most opportune time to approach Ukraine/NATO with a peace deal that allows him to get recognition of the sovereignty of the Donetsk People's Republic and Crimea.  If Putin can "win" the freedom of the DPR he can take that to his people and say "I protected ethnic Russians, destroyed the NAZI Azov Battalion, and weakened Ukraine so that it will not present a threat to Russia (arguable, but he could sell that domestically). " Putin could admit that issues of corruption that he was not aware of had come to light during the conflict and did hamper some of Russia's goals, but argue that the overall campaign was still a success and discovery of those issues as it so happens were necessary to the future strength of Russia.  

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Ukraine will not accept those terms.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:02:56 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Jack67] [#37]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By sq40:
Russia is some serious shit.  Look at their population of 18-30yo men.  They have far more women than men too, which is very interesting.

Taking another 300,000 out of that group is going to sting.  

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/49447/2D0C8C52-2218-4F5A-9C39-BD9FC1C24585_jpe-2534312.JPG
View Quote


Holy cow, that’s uglier than I thought it was.  I knew the decline was bad since the 90s, but that makes it clear it’s horrific. They’re doomed if they don’t shake off the kleptocracy this time, and FAST.

ETA: basically same thing Zhukov said above while I was typing.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:06:26 PM EDT
[#38]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By THOT_Vaccine:


A well known Journalist was murdered
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By THOT_Vaccine:
Originally Posted By dillydilly:
Originally Posted By THOT_Vaccine:

Things are getting nutty in Iran

Why are they protesting?


A well known Journalist was murdered


Not quite right.

A woman was arrested by the morality police for not having her head completely covered.

She was 23 years old and died while in police custody.

Women are taking to the streets in protest.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:06:28 PM EDT
[#39]


The Russian infantry and landing forces have been demobilized. East.


Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:07:25 PM EDT
[#40]
I felt like putting a bullet in the head of every panda that wouldn’t fuck to save its species.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:08:34 PM EDT
[Last Edit: stone-age] [#41]
Constantine is live.
Inside Russia.
Russia is Mobilizing.

Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:08:58 PM EDT
[#42]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By BustinCaps:

The only reason this entire scenario hasn't turned into desert storm 2: Eastern European Boogaloo is because of nukes. So Russia has that one area locked down over Ukraine. Without nukes we'd be operating no fly zones over Russia by now, after nearly taking Moscow.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By BustinCaps:
Originally Posted By Bassgasm:
Ermahgerd mobilization!

Some of you guys crack me up.

The disparity between the Russian situation and the Ukrainian situation couldn't be much more stark. Morale, intelligence, logistics, command, communications, technology, training... everything.

I don't think there is one thing of military significance Russia is doing better than Ukraine, and the deeper this war goes, the more one-sided this dynamic is getting.

The only reason this entire scenario hasn't turned into desert storm 2: Eastern European Boogaloo is because of nukes. So Russia has that one area locked down over Ukraine. Without nukes we'd be operating no fly zones over Russia by now, after nearly taking Moscow.
Once Ukraine gets it's hands on Western fighters - which I think will start trickling into the theater by Christmas - the Ukrainians will be able to attain air superiority over the majority of the AO that's not near the Russian border.  That will be huge - F16s aren't the best bomb trucks but they will increase the UA precision strike capabilities *many* times over.  

Once that starts happening, the number of Russians freezing in the mud becomes nearly irrelevant because there won't be any way too feed or arm them more than a walking distance from the Russian border.

This isn't 1945.  A human wave attack against an army with ISR, artillery, and precision strike capabilities will just yield more sunflower fertilizer.

Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:11:50 PM EDT
[#43]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By dillydilly:

Why are they protesting?
View Quote


Basically anti-regime.  A woman who was arrested for not wearing a hijab died in custody.  Women are burning their hijabs, protesting the gender and societal repression.  Will it have legs and overthrow the Ayatollahs?  Who knows.  Sometimes freedom gets contagious, maybe it will.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:12:00 PM EDT
[#44]
The utility of air superiority is generally overstated. And will continue to be if the US restricts them from flying strike missions into Russia. Most of what you can strike with aircraft, you can strike with missiles. Obviously some targets need more HE than missiles available to Ukraine can provide. That said a larger air presence is kind of like opening a second front and shooting down a lot of Russian aircraft would put immense pressure on them.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:13:35 PM EDT
[#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Jack67:


Basically anti-regime.  A woman who was arrested for not wearing a hijab died in custody.  Women are burning their hijabs, protesting the gender and societal repression.  Will it have legs and overthrow the Ayatollahs?  Who knows.  Sometimes freedom gets contagious, maybe it will.
View Quote


There has been anti hijab protests before but this one seems pretty wide spread and there is plenty of men with them unlike the previous times where men were very scarce among the protestors.

Probably wont go anywhere but its good to see them fighting back.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:14:00 PM EDT
[#46]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
View Quote


That makes me happy.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:14:44 PM EDT
[#47]






Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:15:38 PM EDT
[#48]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By dillydilly:

Why are they protesting?
View Quote

Government shutting down their internet to stop info on atrocities against citizens getting out is what I understand.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:20:36 PM EDT
[#49]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By sq40:
Russia is in some serious shit.  Look at their population of 18-30yo men.  They have far more women than men too, which is very interesting.

Taking another 300,000 out of that group is going to sting.  

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/49447/2D0C8C52-2218-4F5A-9C39-BD9FC1C24585_jpe-2534312.JPG
View Quote


that thing has a weird dip in it for young people.  wonder if that data is accurate or if the russians had a decade or two where they were too drunk and beaten down to make babies
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 4:21:20 PM EDT
[#50]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Bizzarolibe:
I've said from the beginning that this ends one of two ways: a limited nuclear exchange or a full-blown nuclear exchange. I'm generally not a doomer, not a prepper, and have supported UKR since the beginning (and still do).

I don't know what the right move is at this point to be perfectly honest.
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Hey, I remember your cool avatar; and you are a cola warrior.

Damn, that is a really dark prediction!  Probably not wrong.  

I am also not a preppier or doomer.  But I’m taking note of your prediction, since I live inside the DC beltway!

If Putin goes full retard, my house is pretty much ground zero.  Hope we have it all wrong, and this thing ends with a Russian defeat without nukes.
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