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Posted: 10/27/2021 8:27:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: The_Beer_Slayer]
This is now the active "shit News links, thanks to BerettaGuy: Originally Posted By BerettaGuy: LINKS TO UKRAINIAN NEWS SOURCES IN ENGLISH Kyiv Post Ukrainian News UKRInform EUROMAIDEN PRESS New Voice of Ukraine Kyiv Independent Ukraine World InterFax Ukraine UATV Ukrainian Journal Official Website of the President of Ukraine Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Save these links. I can't post all the headlines like I've done in the past - too much news and too often. Please @ me with additional stuff to be added here. I don't currently have time to properly curate this thread otherwise. New news link c/o berettaguy: Ukrainian Pravda https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ Stop fake, anti - disinformation site: https://www.stopfake.org/en/main/ |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:10:38 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Red_Blue: Those dismissing the “partial mobilization” as impossible and claim that the mass mobilization system collapsed with the SU have not kept up with recent actual academic research into Russian Armed Forces. The fact remains that the RF has 33 million military age males available for service (not disqualified) of which pool about 8 million had actually served in the military. According to western estimates, about 2 million of those are listed in the inactive reserve and less than 100 000 in the new (since 2021) active reserve system BARS. Those less than 100k have received training monthly and are like USNG or USAR, former active duty who continue to serve as volunteer reserve. Of the remaining 1.9 or so million, the first to be mobilized is the grade with the youngest soldiers having the least time from active service, for rank and file (eq. “enlisted”) and NCOs that’s at most 35 year olds. So you are not going to see grandpas like in one of the volunteer units. And the material situation remains to be seen, but any talk about Mosins and T55s is just ludicrous. Russian army didn’t adopt the AK-12 or any of the earlier Russian era modernized variants because they have millions of AK-74s and AKMs in stock. Even western analysts agree that Russia has over 10k tanks in storage and is only missing (reservist) crews and supplies for them. And that 10k of T-80, T-72 and T-64 is most likely an underestimate, because before Russia gave LPR and DPR T-62s, most analysts claimed all T-62s had been scrapped. The fact that Putin announced just 300k to be called up aligns well with the difficulties in providing refresher training and equipping new troops during the “voluntary” contract recruitment campaign thus far. It should be entirely within their capability to bring those troops in as attrition replacements of existing units in a month or so. Any further mobilization beyond that is not impossible, but will likely take more time and effort. You lost me at “academic.” What else can you copy and paste? |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:11:06 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Red_Blue: Those dismissing the “partial mobilization” as impossible and claim that the mass mobilization system collapsed with the SU have not kept up with recent actual academic research into Russian Armed Forces. The fact remains that the RF has 33 million military age males available for service (not disqualified) of which pool about 8 million had actually served in the military. According to western estimates, about 2 million of those are listed in the inactive reserve and less than 100 000 in the new (since 2021) active reserve system BARS. Those less than 100k have received training monthly and are like USNG or USAR, former active duty who continue to serve as volunteer reserve. Of the remaining 1.9 or so million, the first to be mobilized is the grade with the youngest soldiers having the least time from active service, for rank and file (eq. “enlisted”) and NCOs that’s at most 35 year olds. So you are not going to see grandpas like in one of the volunteer units. And the material situation remains to be seen, but any talk about Mosins and T55s is just ludicrous. Russian army didn’t adopt the AK-12 or any of the earlier Russian era modernized variants because they have millions of AK-74s and AKMs in stock. Even western analysts agree that Russia has over 10k tanks in storage and is only missing (reservist) crews and supplies for them. And that 10k of T-80, T-72 and T-64 is most likely an underestimate, because before Russia gave LPR and DPR T-62s, most analysts claimed all T-62s had been scrapped. The fact that Putin announced just 300k to be called up aligns well with the difficulties in providing refresher training and equipping new troops during the “voluntary” contract recruitment campaign thus far. It should be entirely within their capability to bring those troops in as attrition replacements of existing units in a month or so. Any further mobilization beyond that is not impossible, but will likely take more time and effort. I have my doubts. Anyway we shall see how those untrained young men fare against modern combined-arms warfare. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:15:13 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#3]
Let me unfuck my earlier post.
Russia releases 10 POWs through Saudi crown prince - Reuters
 Swedish Foreign Minister Confirms POWs enroute to Sweden https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/senaste-nytt-om-invasionen-av-ukraina/ |
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FIN
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:16:37 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AeroEngineer: Close that border! It took a Russian mobilization for the Finnish foreign ministry to declare that they will draft a bill to close the border (by stopping issuance of visas). They said it will be done “fast”, whatever that means. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:21:34 PM EDT
[#5]
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MN, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:21:52 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: There hasn’t yet been a video of the immediate aftermath, but can you imagine the carnage of a full GMLRS strike on a barracks? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: 18 minutes ago. When they say bases, it's either HQ units or barracks.
There hasn’t yet been a video of the immediate aftermath, but can you imagine the carnage of a full GMLRS strike on a barracks? I've started to wonder if the cluster munition would.be better on a barracks attack.. we got rid of ours china didn't and that worries me. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:21:57 PM EDT
[#7]
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MN, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:23:22 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: As shocking as it sounds, this has a strong logical appeal. I’ve mentioned it before here, too, like you. We effectively took the Ukr nukes away from them in ‘94 by providing a security assurance. It’s time to honor that. So far we are - but it’s still escalating. If it continues to do so, we can provide the ultimate guarantee either with our own and NATO’s nukes, or short-circuit that Russo-Nato black-mail by re-arming Ukraine. It’s one thing for Putin to blackmail us, London, or Berlin. If he suddenly has to deal with a nuclear Ukraine, his problems multiply greatly and his options shrink massively. It is a counter-intuitively stabilizing move, not a de-stabilizing one. The media would have a cow at the concept of spreading nuclear proliferation. But it’s not actually creating a new nuclear power but rather restoring one, and it greatly reduces the risk of nuclear war in this current dilemma by reducing the number of nuclear actors and potential targets. It’s also morally defensible as it restores a now clearly necessary nuclear deterrent that the world rushed too quickly into scrapping. It’s logical, it’s moral, and it might secure peace. And clearly it’s not going to happen, sadly. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Originally Posted By Capta: …. As a final insurance policy - and some may disagree with me - we should hand Ukraine 25 nuclear warheads mounted on ATACMS. We allowed this mess and we need to ensure Ukraine survives it. As shocking as it sounds, this has a strong logical appeal. I’ve mentioned it before here, too, like you. We effectively took the Ukr nukes away from them in ‘94 by providing a security assurance. It’s time to honor that. So far we are - but it’s still escalating. If it continues to do so, we can provide the ultimate guarantee either with our own and NATO’s nukes, or short-circuit that Russo-Nato black-mail by re-arming Ukraine. It’s one thing for Putin to blackmail us, London, or Berlin. If he suddenly has to deal with a nuclear Ukraine, his problems multiply greatly and his options shrink massively. It is a counter-intuitively stabilizing move, not a de-stabilizing one. The media would have a cow at the concept of spreading nuclear proliferation. But it’s not actually creating a new nuclear power but rather restoring one, and it greatly reduces the risk of nuclear war in this current dilemma by reducing the number of nuclear actors and potential targets. It’s also morally defensible as it restores a now clearly necessary nuclear deterrent that the world rushed too quickly into scrapping. It’s logical, it’s moral, and it might secure peace. And clearly it’s not going to happen, sadly. Giving the UA nukes would freeze the conflict and go into a stalemate. What would they do with them. Threaten the Russians to leave,. They have thousands of them and would flatten almost every city in Ukraine if UA used a nuke. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:23:47 PM EDT
[#9]
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:24:42 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Holy fuck balls man! If there are any two things in this world that Russians should avoid, it is heights and cigarettes. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:24:53 PM EDT
[#11]
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:24:55 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By THOT_Vaccine:
I would love to see someone wearing a "Z" on their clothing struggling while being arrested. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:25:30 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975: https://i.postimg.cc/MG6Spm8b/image.png That's pretty big. Aiden was sentenced to death. |
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FIN
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:25:40 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Yet we've SEEN mosins fielded and know for a fact tanks are going that can't even shoot- many are in extremely poor condition. Mosins, M73 uniforms etc. have been issued to the Russian “allies” (Luhansk and Donetsk people's republics) and even then to militia duty for checkpoints and guards etc. If your job is to harras civilian traffic, a pointy stick and a St. George ribbon armband is all you need. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:26:09 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By burnka871: That's pretty big. Aiden was sentenced to death. Yeah, huge. Really good news. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:26:34 PM EDT
[#16]
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:29:01 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Red_Blue: Mosins, M73 uniforms etc. have been issued to the Russian "allies" (Luhansk and Donetsk people's republics) and even then to militia duty for checkpoints and guards etc. If your job is to harras civilian traffic, a pointy stick and a St. George ribbon armband is all you need. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Red_Blue: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: Yet we've SEEN mosins fielded and know for a fact tanks are going that can't even shoot- many are in extremely poor condition. Mosins, M73 uniforms etc. have been issued to the Russian "allies" (Luhansk and Donetsk people's republics) and even then to militia duty for checkpoints and guards etc. If your job is to harras civilian traffic, a pointy stick and a St. George ribbon armband is all you need. Tell that to the collaborators that found themselves turned into a fine pink mist. Doesn't change the fact that those 10k tanks are going to be scrap heaps either. If they weren't, they would have already fielded them. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:29:25 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: I would love to see someone wearing a "Z" on their clothing struggling while being arrested. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: Originally Posted By THOT_Vaccine:
I would love to see someone wearing a "Z" on their clothing struggling while being arrested. Waving a little Z flag and shouting "Hell no! We won't go!"  |
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FIN
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:30:13 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By THOT_Vaccine: Do you think the new reservists will perform better than the old regular army? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By THOT_Vaccine: Do you think the new reservists will perform better than the old regular army? That remains to be seen. The main problem during the opening stages appears to have been poor morale. That can be changed very quickly. It's likely that the contract soldiers have also fought much better when the refusenik sanction was changed from no pay to jail and then (alledgedly) to being shot for desertion. Even with the degraded WWII equipment they will head into the field with? The only place there is “WWII equipment” in Russia is museums. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:32:52 PM EDT
[#20]
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:34:38 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Red_Blue: That remains to be seen. The main problem during the opening stages appears to have been poor morale. That can be changed very quickly. It's likely that the contract soldiers have also fought much better when the refusenik sanction was changed from no pay to jail and then (alledgedly) to being shot for desertion. The only place there is “WWII equipment” in Russia is museums. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Red_Blue: Originally Posted By THOT_Vaccine: Do you think the new reservists will perform better than the old regular army? That remains to be seen. The main problem during the opening stages appears to have been poor morale. That can be changed very quickly. It's likely that the contract soldiers have also fought much better when the refusenik sanction was changed from no pay to jail and then (alledgedly) to being shot for desertion. Even with the degraded WWII equipment they will head into the field with? The only place there is “WWII equipment” in Russia is museums. Homie, the most recent armor reinforcements are sporting T-62s. Wearing boots from 1948 and shooting ammo from 1950. Maybe you missed it. It's about 30 pages back. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:35:55 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Red_Blue: That remains to be seen. The main problem during the opening stages appears to have been poor morale. That can be changed very quickly. It's likely that the contract soldiers have also fought much better when the refusenik sanction was changed from no pay to jail and then (alledgedly) to being shot for desertion. I'll believe it if/when fully-equipped divisions of reservists start showing up at marshalling points on their way to the front. I don't think my credulity will ever be so tested. Russia, if they can actually round up 300K reservists and force them to the front, will have them show up poorly-trained, poorly-equipped, poorly-led and poorly-fed. Russia does not have a magic pool of T-90s and T-80s, or an infinite reservoir of APCs, IFVs and trucks to draw upon. If these so-called reservists even show up in a full uniform, with boots, helmets, modern rifles and ammo, and IFKs, I'll be fucking astonished. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:36:38 PM EDT
[#23]
Zeihan's take on the mobilization fresh off the presses...
 Russia Calls Up More Troops |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:37:35 PM EDT
[#24]
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:39:27 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Only the M142 is a HIMARS and a M270 series is an MLRS. Both shoot the MLRS family of munitions (MFOM) |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:39:43 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Red_Blue: Those dismissing the “partial mobilization” as impossible and claim that the mass mobilization system collapsed with the SU have not kept up with recent actual academic research into Russian Armed Forces. The fact remains that the RF has 33 million military age males available for service (not disqualified) of which pool about 8 million had actually served in the military. According to western estimates, about 2 million of those are listed in the inactive reserve and less than 100 000 in the new (since 2021) active reserve system BARS. Those less than 100k have received training monthly and are like USNG or USAR, former active duty who continue to serve as volunteer reserve. Of the remaining 1.9 or so million, the first to be mobilized is the grade with the youngest soldiers having the least time from active service, for rank and file (eq. “enlisted”) and NCOs that’s at most 35 year olds. So you are not going to see grandpas like in one of the volunteer units. And the material situation remains to be seen, but any talk about Mosins and T55s is just ludicrous. Russian army didn’t adopt the AK-12 or any of the earlier Russian era modernized variants because they have millions of AK-74s and AKMs in stock. Even western analysts agree that Russia has over 10k tanks in storage and is only missing (reservist) crews and supplies for them. And that 10k of T-80, T-72 and T-64 is most likely an underestimate, because before Russia gave LPR and DPR T-62s, most analysts claimed all T-62s had been scrapped. The fact that Putin announced just 300k to be called up aligns well with the difficulties in providing refresher training and equipping new troops during the “voluntary” contract recruitment campaign thus far. It should be entirely within their capability to bring those troops in as attrition replacements of existing units in a month or so. Any further mobilization beyond that is not impossible, but will likely take more time and effort. You mat be correct, but do you think any of the 10s of thousands of equipment in storage is worth a shit? The stuff they sent to the front lines on the race to Kyiv didn't even work, and that should have been some of their best shit on their main objective. Now we expect tanks and gear sitting for 30 years to be maintained and actually work? We have learned stuff in storage does NOT equal usable equipment. I do not believe Russia "saved" any of their best gear except maybe a few of their actually gen 5 fighters. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:41:50 PM EDT
[#27]
Russian nuclear shenanigans again.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:43:46 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Circuits: I'll believe it if/when fully-equipped divisions of reservists start showing up at marshalling points on their way to the front. I don't think my credulity will ever be so tested. Russia, if they can actually round up 300K reservists and force them to the front, will have them show up poorly-trained, poorly-equipped, poorly-led and poorly-fed. Russia does not have a magic pool of T-90s and T-80s, or an infinite reservoir of APCs, IFVs and trucks to draw upon. If these so-called reservists even show up in a full uniform, with boots, helmets, modern rifles and ammo, and IFKs, I'll be fucking astonished. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Circuits: Originally Posted By Red_Blue: That remains to be seen. The main problem during the opening stages appears to have been poor morale. That can be changed very quickly. It's likely that the contract soldiers have also fought much better when the refusenik sanction was changed from no pay to jail and then (alledgedly) to being shot for desertion. I'll believe it if/when fully-equipped divisions of reservists start showing up at marshalling points on their way to the front. I don't think my credulity will ever be so tested. Russia, if they can actually round up 300K reservists and force them to the front, will have them show up poorly-trained, poorly-equipped, poorly-led and poorly-fed. Russia does not have a magic pool of T-90s and T-80s, or an infinite reservoir of APCs, IFVs and trucks to draw upon. If these so-called reservists even show up in a full uniform, with boots, helmets, modern rifles and ammo, and IFKs, I'll be fucking astonished. I would be surprised if these reservists have proper boots and socks - much less modern helmets, armor, and weapons. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:43:58 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Production rate is 7500 rockets per year. No idea how many we started with. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:46:15 PM EDT
[#30]
Things are getting nutty in Iran |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:47:01 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DK-Prof: I would be surprised if these reservists have proper boots and socks - much less modern helmets, armor, and weapons. Socks? I bet they are still using 1915 style foot wraps. |
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FIN
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:47:03 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Red_Blue]
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Doesn't change the fact that those 10k tanks are going to be scrap heaps either. If they weren't, they would have already fielded them. Russian army doesn't have trained tank crews without tanks waiting for someone to issue them one. The specialized training mentioned as one of the factors in who gets called up exactly refers to such people as tank crews. There is no logic in claiming that these tanks that western intelligence claims exist do not exist because they don't drive themselves. Besides, Russian army has already dipped into these stores many times during this war. The point is that there is no calculation possible where such stores are already empty. Not even if you assume some horrendous rate of rejection. 90% of them are not going to be scrap. Each major Russian yearly exercise includes raising up some vehicles from deep level depot storage for that particular exercise. And even if you assume some subterfuge like the depot bribing the inspecting general to know in advance which chassis numbers are going to be taken out for use this time, none of this “graft hole” is everything. Another way to look at is that the Russians say they have 10k reserve tanks, but in fact they have 30k. And of those 66 % can be rusting under the sun or sold do plow fields in Yakutia or whatever, in the end they still have 10k tanks that kind of work (per Russian standards). |
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LA, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:47:10 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Red_Blue: That remains to be seen. The main problem during the opening stages appears to have been poor morale. That can be changed very quickly. It's likely that the contract soldiers have also fought much better when the refusenik sanction was changed from no pay to jail and then (alledgedly) to being shot for desertion. The only place there is "WWII equipment" in Russia is museums. They have their own people pointing guns at the poor SOBs to make them fight. Increase penalties for desertion and made voluntary surrender a crime. You think morale is going anywhere but lower? |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:48:18 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PeepEater: Socks? I bet they are still using 1915 style foot wraps. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PeepEater: Originally Posted By DK-Prof: I would be surprised if these reservists have proper boots and socks - much less modern helmets, armor, and weapons. Socks? I bet they are still using 1915 style foot wraps. That's my point. Since socks are still a very new and advanced technology for the Russian army, I highly doubt that these reservists would be given such gear. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:49:12 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: Only the M142 is a HIMARS and a M270 series is an MLRS. Both shoot the MLRS family of munitions (MFOM) Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Only the M142 is a HIMARS and a M270 series is an MLRS. Both shoot the MLRS family of munitions (MFOM) Your correct, but I think the post was to inform those not familiar with the two different systems that if you go by what a HIMARS is, that Ukraine has this number. The fact that if they only launched once per day, that is a lot of precision strikes in a day. |
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USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:49:22 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By THOT_Vaccine:
Things are getting nutty in Iran https://nitter.net/antiputler_news/status/1572642339037872128  |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:49:40 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Circuits: I'll believe it if/when fully-equipped divisions of reservists start showing up at marshalling points on their way to the front. I don't think my credulity will ever be so tested. Russia, if they can actually round up 300K reservists and force them to the front, will have them show up poorly-trained, poorly-equipped, poorly-led and poorly-fed. Russia does not have a magic pool of T-90s and T-80s, or an infinite reservoir of APCs, IFVs and trucks to draw upon. If these so-called reservists even show up in a full uniform, with boots, helmets, modern rifles and ammo, and IFKs, I'll be fucking astonished. I agree. Hell, half of those poorly trained, poorly equipped fuckers will probably freeze to death this winter. |
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USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:52:12 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DK-Prof: That's my point. Since socks are still a very new and advanced technology for the Russian army, I highly doubt that these reservists would be given such gear. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DK-Prof: Originally Posted By PeepEater: Originally Posted By DK-Prof: I would be surprised if these reservists have proper boots and socks - much less modern helmets, armor, and weapons. Socks? I bet they are still using 1915 style foot wraps. That's my point. Since socks are still a very new and advanced technology for the Russian army, I highly doubt that these reservists would be given such gear. They were wearing foot wraps back in March, so you are probably correct. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:52:12 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Red_Blue: Those dismissing the “partial mobilization” as impossible and claim that the mass mobilization system collapsed with the SU have not kept up with recent actual academic research into Russian Armed Forces. The fact remains that the RF has 33 million military age males available for service (not disqualified) of which pool about 8 million had actually served in the military. According to western estimates, about 2 million of those are listed in the inactive reserve and less than 100 000 in the new (since 2021) active reserve system BARS. Those less than 100k have received training monthly and are like USNG or USAR, former active duty who continue to serve as volunteer reserve. Of the remaining 1.9 or so million, the first to be mobilized is the grade with the youngest soldiers having the least time from active service, for rank and file (eq. “enlisted”) and NCOs that’s at most 35 year olds. So you are not going to see grandpas like in one of the volunteer units. And the material situation remains to be seen, but any talk about Mosins and T55s is just ludicrous. Russian army didn’t adopt the AK-12 or any of the earlier Russian era modernized variants because they have millions of AK-74s and AKMs in stock. Even western analysts agree that Russia has over 10k tanks in storage and is only missing (reservist) crews and supplies for them. And that 10k of T-80, T-72 and T-64 is most likely an underestimate, because before Russia gave LPR and DPR T-62s, most analysts claimed all T-62s had been scrapped. The fact that Putin announced just 300k to be called up aligns well with the difficulties in providing refresher training and equipping new troops during the “voluntary” contract recruitment campaign thus far. It should be entirely within their capability to bring those troops in as attrition replacements of existing units in a month or so. Any further mobilization beyond that is not impossible, but will likely take more time and effort. Welcome fellow firearms enthusiast! There has never been any disagreement that Russia possess the manpower to have a huge army, so partial or even “full” mobilization is not impossible per se. They can order it. However they cannot train, equip, or supply an additional 300K, let alone more. Russia currently struggles to supply 100-130K in Ukraine, but 350-400K? They have allegedly gutted their training establishments to send them to Ukraine. Their logistical reach is about 60 miles and will get worse as they lose transport trucks and the ability to replace them. The abysmal state of their communications is well-known. Their air force suffers from extremely low readiness rates - possibly 10-20% - and has lost air superiority over Ukraine. The Moisin talk is just hyperbole. Everyone here recognizes that Russia could hand everyone an AK. But that is about all they can do. I will also add that the individual rifle is of practically no concern. Artillery kills 95%. They are short of 152mm artillery and are having to switch over to 122MM en masse due to gun wear and lack of shells. They have to source artillery shells from North Korea. They have to source drones from Iran. They are running out of modern tanks and outstripping their ability to make more. Their “vast reserves” of tanks are mostly fit only for scrap - lacking engines, optics, parts stripped for resale. We’re talking about gound-up rebuilds using parts that don’t exist. Significant use of T-62s is a certainty. They are in Ukraine in numbers because Russia already had a T-62 rebuild program to support Syria. They are significantly simpler tanks to maintain, and lack thermal sights. They have a certain utility, but the lack of a thermal sight is a huge minus. The T72 is a 3-man tank, and there is evidence that the Russians are so short-handed that they are sometimes running them with two men. Hopefully you aren’t in a position to be sent in as cannon fodder, comrade. The vast majority of these 300K are going to be fed into the wood chipper in existing units, not forming new units with new equipment. |
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USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:54:05 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Dominion21]
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: You think they no longer have the ability to escalate? dont kid yourself. They very much do and they will. You think everyday russians are not on board with putin?? if that was the case then this mobilization wont work. But it will because they believe Putin and will die in Ukraine for him. You are terribly wrong about everyday russians and what they think. Time article from Aug 24th about Russians support for the war and for Putin. "But one thing that hasn’t seemed to change is Russian public opinion. According to the Levada Center, an independent polling agency in Moscow, more than three-quarters of Russians continue to support what the Kremlin calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine, with just 18% opposed. Putin’s approval rating is similarly high at 83%, a figure that has only risen since the war began. A slightly smaller, but nonetheless consistent, majority of the public believe that the country is headed in the right direction." https://time.com/6208238/why-russian-support-for-the-war-in-ukraine-hasnt-wavered/ Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By Jack67: Originally Posted By AROKIE: I believe the slow boil approach is dated now, with russia mobilizing and rushing the referendum, Ukraine doesnt have the time. Once they pass the sham referendums and those territory's become russian, then this war will escalate beyond anything we have seen so far by multitudes, with out a doubt. I believe alot of folks are underestimating russias ability to wage war. Sure they have got there ass kicked so far, but once they think they are actually protecting russian land then it becomes a war and not a special military operation in the russian publics eyes and the russian gov will see a larger support for escalation. And they will escalate. I really think we have that ability very well understood right now. In fact I’d wager real $$ that we have intelligence arms that understand it in more depth and detail than any single person they have in place, even at the very top. Russian’s don’t think they are defending Russia; they know very well it’s just a borderland game for the emperor to get more loot. Those territories don’t “become” Russian from a rigged vote, and no one in Russia buys the nonsense, either. The slow boil approach, of which I was not a believer initially, is working perfectly as this is EXACTLY what it would predict and encourage. Incremental, ineffective squandering of blood and treasure until regime implosion. Check, it’s working. I viscerally didn’t like that approach as articulated back in March and April, but it’s working great. They have spent 30 years hollowing out their capabilities and bluffing, and it’s been called. You think they no longer have the ability to escalate? dont kid yourself. They very much do and they will. You think everyday russians are not on board with putin?? if that was the case then this mobilization wont work. But it will because they believe Putin and will die in Ukraine for him. You are terribly wrong about everyday russians and what they think. Time article from Aug 24th about Russians support for the war and for Putin. "But one thing that hasn’t seemed to change is Russian public opinion. According to the Levada Center, an independent polling agency in Moscow, more than three-quarters of Russians continue to support what the Kremlin calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine, with just 18% opposed. Putin’s approval rating is similarly high at 83%, a figure that has only risen since the war began. A slightly smaller, but nonetheless consistent, majority of the public believe that the country is headed in the right direction." https://time.com/6208238/why-russian-support-for-the-war-in-ukraine-hasnt-wavered/ Thanks  Guys: Putin’s public is backing him. Even the Carnegie article admits “a majority” support Putin’s war (and that’s more than enough); the Carnegie article also explores some societal fracturing. But, There will not be a popular revolt against Putin over this. I firmly believe the US and NATO goal must pivot to: regime change. But we will have to do this the hard way, apparently. Time for NATO to take off the gloves, as far as aid and training go Do not escalate into a war with other countries, but remove all barriers to every type of aid and training. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:54:58 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: This all sounds very impressive on paper, but during this entire war, the Russians have shown they can't really move any of their ground forces much beyond 70km from any rail lines they control. They also have a deteriorating logistical problem exacerbated by the recent acquisition of precision artillery systems. I would expect more of this.
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Red_Blue: Those dismissing the “partial mobilization” as impossible and claim that the mass mobilization system collapsed with the SU have not kept up with recent actual academic research into Russian Armed Forces. The fact remains that the RF has 33 million military age males available for service (not disqualified) of which pool about 8 million had actually served in the military. According to western estimates, about 2 million of those are listed in the inactive reserve and less than 100 000 in the new (since 2021) active reserve system BARS. Those less than 100k have received training monthly and are like USNG or USAR, former active duty who continue to serve as volunteer reserve. Of the remaining 1.9 or so million, the first to be mobilized is the grade with the youngest soldiers having the least time from active service, for rank and file (eq. “enlisted”) and NCOs that’s at most 35 year olds. So you are not going to see grandpas like in one of the volunteer units. And the material situation remains to be seen, but any talk about Mosins and T55s is just ludicrous. Russian army didn’t adopt the AK-12 or any of the earlier Russian era modernized variants because they have millions of AK-74s and AKMs in stock. Even western analysts agree that Russia has over 10k tanks in storage and is only missing (reservist) crews and supplies for them. And that 10k of T-80, T-72 and T-64 is most likely an underestimate, because before Russia gave LPR and DPR T-62s, most analysts claimed all T-62s had been scrapped. The fact that Putin announced just 300k to be called up aligns well with the difficulties in providing refresher training and equipping new troops during the “voluntary” contract recruitment campaign thus far. It should be entirely within their capability to bring those troops in as attrition replacements of existing units in a month or so. Any further mobilization beyond that is not impossible, but will likely take more time and effort. This all sounds very impressive on paper, but during this entire war, the Russians have shown they can't really move any of their ground forces much beyond 70km from any rail lines they control. They also have a deteriorating logistical problem exacerbated by the recent acquisition of precision artillery systems. I would expect more of this.
 Attached File |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:56:40 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Red_Blue: That remains to be seen. The main problem during the opening stages appears to have been poor morale. That can be changed very quickly. It's likely that the contract soldiers have also fought much better when the refusenik sanction was changed from no pay to jail and then (alledgedly) to being shot for desertion. The only place there is “WWII equipment” in Russia is museums. "that's real retarded, sir" In the "opening stages", they assumed it would be a 3 day cake walk. At least those few who knew they were going to Ukraine. Yet now, after 100-150K casualties, counter offensives, HIMARS, and losing air superiority to the UA, now (NOW) they will have better morale? |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:57:11 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdKs_O6X0AMTjHZ?format=png&name=900x900 Holy Shit |
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IN, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:57:21 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975: A cobbled-together rusty hulk proudly displaying its commie symbol like it's something to be feared? All it needs is to do is roll coal before needing a tow and it's the perfect analogy. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:57:42 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Swampgrass: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/427921/maxresdefault__2__jpg-2534199.JPG Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Swampgrass: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Red_Blue: Those dismissing the “partial mobilization” as impossible and claim that the mass mobilization system collapsed with the SU have not kept up with recent actual academic research into Russian Armed Forces. The fact remains that the RF has 33 million military age males available for service (not disqualified) of which pool about 8 million had actually served in the military. According to western estimates, about 2 million of those are listed in the inactive reserve and less than 100 000 in the new (since 2021) active reserve system BARS. Those less than 100k have received training monthly and are like USNG or USAR, former active duty who continue to serve as volunteer reserve. Of the remaining 1.9 or so million, the first to be mobilized is the grade with the youngest soldiers having the least time from active service, for rank and file (eq. “enlisted”) and NCOs that’s at most 35 year olds. So you are not going to see grandpas like in one of the volunteer units. And the material situation remains to be seen, but any talk about Mosins and T55s is just ludicrous. Russian army didn’t adopt the AK-12 or any of the earlier Russian era modernized variants because they have millions of AK-74s and AKMs in stock. Even western analysts agree that Russia has over 10k tanks in storage and is only missing (reservist) crews and supplies for them. And that 10k of T-80, T-72 and T-64 is most likely an underestimate, because before Russia gave LPR and DPR T-62s, most analysts claimed all T-62s had been scrapped. The fact that Putin announced just 300k to be called up aligns well with the difficulties in providing refresher training and equipping new troops during the “voluntary” contract recruitment campaign thus far. It should be entirely within their capability to bring those troops in as attrition replacements of existing units in a month or so. Any further mobilization beyond that is not impossible, but will likely take more time and effort. This all sounds very impressive on paper, but during this entire war, the Russians have shown they can't really move any of their ground forces much beyond 70km from any rail lines they control. They also have a deteriorating logistical problem exacerbated by the recent acquisition of precision artillery systems. I would expect more of this.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/427921/maxresdefault__2__jpg-2534199.JPG You read that in an English accent didn't you. 
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FL, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 2:03:25 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Red_Blue: Russian army doesn't have trained tank crews without tanks waiting for someone to issue them one. The specialized training mentioned as one of the factors in who gets called up exactly refers to such people as tank crews. There is no logic in claiming that these tanks that western intelligence claims exist do not exist because they don't drive themselves. Besides, Russian army has already dipped into these stores many times during this war. The point is that there is no calculation possible where such stores are already empty. Not even if you assume some horrendous rate of rejection. 90% of them are not going to be scrap. Each major Russian yearly exercise includes raising up some vehicles from deep level depot storage for that particular exercise. And even if you assume some subterfuge like the depot bribing the inspecting general to know in advance which chassis numbers are going to be taken out for use this time, none of this “graft hole” is everything. Another way to look at is that the Russians say they have 10k reserve tanks, but in fact they have 30k. And of those 66 % can be rusting under the sun or sold do plow fields in Yakutia or whatever, in the end they still have 10k tanks that kind of work (per Russian standards). I'm picturing Red_Blue sitting in a basement with a stack of Russian/Soviet Field manuals. Every time someone posts something about how fucked up Russia is, he quickly flips through the pages and finds the official Russian doctrine and types it in as a response. EVERYTHING you are posting is from some RU fantasy land where everything works perfectly and by the official book. Did you read the first 2500 pages and see how this RU shit show has been developing? Even back in February your posts would be idealistic bullshit that even Putin wouldnt believe. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 2:03:55 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lightning_P38: Lots of ass rape and pay theft? But with even meaner insults? New guys have to load washing machines and dishwashers? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lightning_P38: Originally Posted By Swampgrass: Russian soldiers already get treated like shit. Imagine how bad new guys coming in units to replace the dead guys will get treated.Lots A wise man would invest in Bosch, Miele, and Electrolux. The appliance boom in Eastern Ukraine is going to be epic. |
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MN, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 2:04:38 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
At what point do they run out of missiles we can supply though? |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 2:05:23 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stgdz: Giving the UA nukes would freeze the conflict and go into a stalemate. What would they do with them. Threaten the Russians to leave,. They have thousands of them and would flatten almost every city in Ukraine if UA used a nuke. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stgdz: Originally Posted By Jack67: Originally Posted By Capta: …. As a final insurance policy - and some may disagree with me - we should hand Ukraine 25 nuclear warheads mounted on ATACMS. We allowed this mess and we need to ensure Ukraine survives it. As shocking as it sounds, this has a strong logical appeal. I’ve mentioned it before here, too, like you. We effectively took the Ukr nukes away from them in ‘94 by providing a security assurance. It’s time to honor that. So far we are - but it’s still escalating. If it continues to do so, we can provide the ultimate guarantee either with our own and NATO’s nukes, or short-circuit that Russo-Nato black-mail by re-arming Ukraine. It’s one thing for Putin to blackmail us, London, or Berlin. If he suddenly has to deal with a nuclear Ukraine, his problems multiply greatly and his options shrink massively. It is a counter-intuitively stabilizing move, not a de-stabilizing one. The media would have a cow at the concept of spreading nuclear proliferation. But it’s not actually creating a new nuclear power but rather restoring one, and it greatly reduces the risk of nuclear war in this current dilemma by reducing the number of nuclear actors and potential targets. It’s also morally defensible as it restores a now clearly necessary nuclear deterrent that the world rushed too quickly into scrapping. It’s logical, it’s moral, and it might secure peace. And clearly it’s not going to happen, sadly. Giving the UA nukes would freeze the conflict and go into a stalemate. What would they do with them. Threaten the Russians to leave,. They have thousands of them and would flatten almost every city in Ukraine if UA used a nuke. No it wouldn’t, it’s a backstop if Western will falters, in which case Russia would nuke Ukrainian cities anyway. Ukraine needs the ability to make the cost for Russia extreme. They are in range of Rostov-On-Don, the third most important city in Russia. They are in range of quite a few more mid-size cities, and with other means could probably reach Moscow. Again, in the worst case scenario Moscow needs to understand the costs would be prohibitive. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 2:05:36 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Let me unfuck my earlier post.
Russia releases 10 POWs through Saudi crown prince - Reuters
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdMXsvuWQAII2GB?format=jpg&name=medium Swedish Foreign Minister Confirms POWs enroute to Sweden https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/senaste-nytt-om-invasionen-av-ukraina/ That's interesting. POTATPUS can't get on the Saudi schedule worth a shit, can't do anything re: WNBA pothead, and here the Sauds spring multiple nationalities from Russia. I am so glad the adults are in charge. |
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