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Posted: 10/27/2021 8:27:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: The_Beer_Slayer]
This is now the active "shit News links, thanks to BerettaGuy: Originally Posted By BerettaGuy: LINKS TO UKRAINIAN NEWS SOURCES IN ENGLISH Kyiv Post Ukrainian News UKRInform EUROMAIDEN PRESS New Voice of Ukraine Kyiv Independent Ukraine World InterFax Ukraine UATV Ukrainian Journal Official Website of the President of Ukraine Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Save these links. I can't post all the headlines like I've done in the past - too much news and too often. Please @ me with additional stuff to be added here. I don't currently have time to properly curate this thread otherwise. New news link c/o berettaguy: Ukrainian Pravda https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ Stop fake, anti - disinformation site: https://www.stopfake.org/en/main/ |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 11:55:00 AM EDT
[#1]
Here we go. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 11:56:34 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By i_tell_you_what:
Comments are saying this is dis-information. I imagine russia would restrict travel to the border if people were fleeing in mass. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 11:56:38 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By THOT_Vaccine:
Here we go. Lol, I have had beer at that brewery. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 11:58:00 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: 18 minutes ago. When they say bases, it's either HQ units or barracks.
There hasn’t yet been a video of the immediate aftermath, but can you imagine the carnage of a full GMLRS strike on a barracks? |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 11:58:03 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By THOT_Vaccine:
Here we go. Nothing is gonna happen... OMON will come out and play Glenn Miller in the background while beating them silly and then arresting them. Nobody will do ANYTHING....... |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 11:58:14 AM EDT
[#6]
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CHN
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Posted: 9/21/2022 11:59:04 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Freiheit8472: I’d like to figure out who amongst them supports the war and just doesn’t want to fight (probably a lot). One can turn into the other. Unwanted conscription can cause you to rethink the whole thing. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 11:59:15 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By THOT_Vaccine: https://i.postimg.cc/3w31NmWs/Fd-MIN9t-WAAAJj-EU.jpg https://i.postimg.cc/QMV2C2BG/Fd-MFg9-DWQAYRn-IS.jpg I'm sure that's just a mistranslation. Cool drone boat Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By THOT_Vaccine: https://i.postimg.cc/3w31NmWs/Fd-MIN9t-WAAAJj-EU.jpg https://i.postimg.cc/QMV2C2BG/Fd-MFg9-DWQAYRn-IS.jpg An unmanned aerial vehicle washed up on the shore of Sevastopol. I'm sure that's just a mistranslation. Cool drone boat Get out the tractor. I call dibs on that sucker. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:01:39 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Death solves all of life's problems. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:01:53 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By charlesb_la: The "referendums" may be to get around this. By Russian law conscripts can't be deployed outside of Russia until they have 4 months of training. If the areas are now "Russia" they can ship them immediately. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By charlesb_la: Originally Posted By Scott-S6: Apparently the demographic devastation that has already been imposed on the DPR and LPR so that a few hundred thousand conscripts with no training and pathetic equipment could be thrown into the meat grinder was so worth it that it's time for Russia to get a taste as well. Of course the russian conscripts do, at least, have a few months of training. On the other hand, they have a few months of being beaten and raped by their NCOs. You'd also expect them to have better equipment but whether those equipment stocks exist and, if so, are in any kind of serviceable condition remains to be seen. That is an excellent point and I hadn’t thought of that! |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:02:03 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jozsi: Nothing is gonna happen... OMON will come out and play Glenn Miller in the background while beating them silly and then arresting them. Nobody will do ANYTHING....... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jozsi: Originally Posted By THOT_Vaccine:
Here we go. Nothing is gonna happen... OMON will come out and play Glenn Miller in the background while beating them silly and then arresting them. Nobody will do ANYTHING....... |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:02:22 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: There hasn’t yet been a video of the immediate aftermath, but can you imagine the carnage of a full GMLRS strike on a barracks? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: 18 minutes ago. When they say bases, it's either HQ units or barracks.
There hasn’t yet been a video of the immediate aftermath, but can you imagine the carnage of a full GMLRS strike on a barracks? It is devastating, even Intercepted phone calls of Russian soldiers indicate they know the distinct sound of incoming HIMARS strikes, and just that demoralizes them. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:03:32 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By triode: Death solves all of life's problems. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By triode: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Death solves all of life's problems. "Have debts!? No problem! We have a nifty tin box waiting for you at the front! Call now!" |
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CHN
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:04:31 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Agreed, but pushing along the Svatove and Starobilsk axis, the way the Kharkiv front axis has been oriented to-date, does two things. 1) Creates a massive flank to use against occupied Luhansk, 2) A massively vulnerable flank along the border that can be turned against them. Difficult call. Maybe re-dedicating to clearing the right bank of the Dnieper and taking Kherson is now slightly more favored. Yeah. In Kherson there is the potential to eliminate a lot of Russian troops and hardware. And they would retain the Dnieper as a shield until the ground is hard again for a new offensive. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:06:09 PM EDT
[#15]
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:09:53 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Squatch: AKA Charge 8 Super ETA: IIRC, in BCS, there was no "Charge 8", but charge 7S. Charge 7 was red bag. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Squatch: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Rather resourceful use of M203A1 used propellant canisters.
AKA Charge 8 Super ETA: IIRC, in BCS, there was no "Charge 8", but charge 7S. Charge 7 was red bag. You could store up to 9 propellent types in BCS and stored them by lot designator. If you entered both red bag(119) and super 8 (203/A1), you would place charge 9 in the charge field in the FM/CFF if you wanted super 8 and 8 if you wanted red bag. But it you only had one or the other it would recognize appropriate charge if you put in 8 My biggest concern was always the cannoneers would mess up the lot and pick the wrong red bag. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:10:00 PM EDT
[#17]
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FIN
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:10:01 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By i_tell_you_what:
This is fake news. The Finnish Border Guards OPC reports that the situation is normal and the line doesn't even extend between the border posts (as 250 meters). Those videos are from somewhere else. Note how they deliberately only show the back sides of the road signs that would allow you to immediately geolocate. |
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USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:10:48 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dracster: Witchcraft! Sorcery! Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dracster: Originally Posted By m35ben: Originally Posted By Dracster: Tour of a small munitions warehouse captured during the offensive. Note the pallets all stacked up in the corner not being used...as usual.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAw_P2umJTU[/q uote]Its time to announce a new weapon being sent to Ukraine. The PLS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXyQtIRuFbIWitchcraft! Sorcery! It seems the pallets are EU standard size, no way the Russians could use them.  |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:11:20 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: That is an excellent point and I hadn’t thought of that! Yeah, that’s the whole ploy. Referendum and conscription are timed to go together for that purpose. Yesterday we thought the mob. announcement would come immediately after the rigged vote. But it appears now they wanted to gain a few days/one week jump. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:12:19 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By triode: Comments are saying this is dis-information. I imagine russia would restrict travel to the border if people were fleeing in mass. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By triode: Originally Posted By i_tell_you_what:
Comments are saying this is dis-information. I imagine russia would restrict travel to the border if people were fleeing in mass. Ever since the Kiev decapitation strike failed, Putin has been making everything up as he goes. There is no plan. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:13:17 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jough43: Should Poland, Finland and other neighbors to Russia start massing troops and equipment along borders to tie up russian assets, keeping them out of Ukraine? There is already plenty of evidence that Russia has already pulled everything there is to pull from their NATO borders, ergo their stated “fear” of a NATO invasion is a lie. They know NATO isn’t going to invade them. Deterrence relies solely on nuclear forces now. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:13:34 PM EDT
[Last Edit: THOT_Vaccine]
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Red_Blue: This is fake news. The Finnish Border Guards OPC reports that the situation is normal and the line doesn't even extend between the border posts (as 250 meters). Those videos are from somewhere else. Note how they deliberately only show the back sides of the road signs that would allow you to immediately geolocate. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Red_Blue: Originally Posted By i_tell_you_what:
This is fake news. The Finnish Border Guards OPC reports that the situation is normal and the line doesn't even extend between the border posts (as 250 meters). Those videos are from somewhere else. Note how they deliberately only show the back sides of the road signs that would allow you to immediately geolocate. Sort of a relief really. What would you do with a bunch of Russian human rights refugees? Put them to work, building barricades and mine fields? 
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:17:19 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bikedamon: Bakhmut plays to Russia's meat-grinder strategy strengths unfortunately. Russian forces are all in. If they can take Bakhmut they will position it as blunting the Ukrainian counter-offensive, as they need that narrative badly at home right now. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bikedamon: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Doesn't sound good This has been going on for awhile, this is good because the Ukrainians have been able to hold their positions against the heaviest weight of Russian forces against them here. Everything else on the front is easier, and HIMARS will break their logistics as they get chewed into bite size pieces.  Bakhmut plays to Russia's meat-grinder strategy strengths unfortunately. Russian forces are all in. If they can take Bakhmut they will position it as blunting the Ukrainian counter-offensive, as they need that narrative badly at home right now. The Russians can present it however they like, just like Severodonetsk. They spent months taking both cities at grotesque cost, for nothing of military value. The UA just bled them and withdrew to the next defensive line. Bakhmut is irrelevant to addressing Russian vulnerabilities in either Kherson or northern Lukhansk. No one can figure out why they bother except for sheer pig-headedness. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:19:19 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Swampgrass: Russian soldiers already get treated like shit. Imagine how bad new guys coming in units to replace the dead guys will get treated.Lots |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:21:32 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Bizzarolibe]
[#26]
I've said from the beginning that this ends one of two ways: a limited nuclear exchange or a full-blown nuclear exchange. I'm generally not a doomer, not a prepper, and have supported UKR since the beginning (and still do).
I don't know what the right move is at this point to be perfectly honest. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:22:16 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I'm with you on this assessment, that is exactly what they have done in the past. We had 7 months to move assets in place after the war started and the threats of nukes, so for me confidence is high. We increase our ability by the day and are in a position where we could hit them without them knowing we are striking. Lets just say that I do not lose sleep over it knowing what we are capable of. Precisely. I think if our mil and intel services ever see/hear credible reports of Russian forces actually moving WMDs into a deployable condition, that will be the week that gun battles suddenly erupt between FSB, the Ru Army, and half a dozen other interest groups across Russia. That's because those guys would all be worried about losing their condos in London, Dubai, and Mallorca, and they would be busting their asses trying to wrest control, as a signal to the world that they aren't going to allow that to happen. And then Putin will "fall ill" or fall out of a window. Putin himself might be willing to bring the entire temple down on his head, but these other dudes have something to lose, and they know our weapons actually work. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:25:39 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:26:38 PM EDT
[#29]
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:31:44 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: As shocking as it sounds, this has a strong logical appeal. I’ve mentioned it before here, too, like you. We effectively took the Ukr nukes away from them in ‘94 by providing a security assurance. It’s time to honor that. So far we are - but it’s still escalating. If it continues to do so, we can provide the ultimate guarantee either with our own and NATO’s nukes, or short-circuit that Russo-Nato black-mail by re-arming Ukraine. It’s one thing for Putin to blackmail us, London, or Berlin. If he suddenly has to deal with a nuclear Ukraine, his problems multiply greatly and his options shrink massively. It is a counter-intuitively stabilizing move, not a de-stabilizing one. The media would have a cow at the concept of spreading nuclear proliferation. But it’s not actually creating a new nuclear power but rather restoring one, and it greatly reduces the risk of nuclear war in this current dilemma by reducing the number of nuclear actors and potential targets. It’s also morally defensible as it restores a now clearly necessary nuclear deterrent that the world rushed too quickly into scrapping. It’s logical, it’s moral, and it might secure peace. And clearly it’s not going to happen, sadly. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Originally Posted By Capta: …. As a final insurance policy - and some may disagree with me - we should hand Ukraine 25 nuclear warheads mounted on ATACMS. We allowed this mess and we need to ensure Ukraine survives it. As shocking as it sounds, this has a strong logical appeal. I’ve mentioned it before here, too, like you. We effectively took the Ukr nukes away from them in ‘94 by providing a security assurance. It’s time to honor that. So far we are - but it’s still escalating. If it continues to do so, we can provide the ultimate guarantee either with our own and NATO’s nukes, or short-circuit that Russo-Nato black-mail by re-arming Ukraine. It’s one thing for Putin to blackmail us, London, or Berlin. If he suddenly has to deal with a nuclear Ukraine, his problems multiply greatly and his options shrink massively. It is a counter-intuitively stabilizing move, not a de-stabilizing one. The media would have a cow at the concept of spreading nuclear proliferation. But it’s not actually creating a new nuclear power but rather restoring one, and it greatly reduces the risk of nuclear war in this current dilemma by reducing the number of nuclear actors and potential targets. It’s also morally defensible as it restores a now clearly necessary nuclear deterrent that the world rushed too quickly into scrapping. It’s logical, it’s moral, and it might secure peace. And clearly it’s not going to happen, sadly. The Ukrainians need us, but we need them too. They are, frankly, fighting our war for us. This is a political insurance policy for them, so that if western will falters (I don’t think it will, but it is an unknowable) they have a backstop in hand. This will help them internally to pay the price that has to be paid, because they know that - with nukes in hand - they can’t be sold out. In the long term neither the US, NATO, nor the EU will be able to prevent Ukraine (and Poland) from achieving nuclear weapons and delivery systems. It is a 100% certainty. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:32:37 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By i_tell_you_what:
Close that border! |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:39:22 PM EDT
[#32]
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:40:16 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Agreed, but pushing along the Svatove and Starobilsk axis, the way the Kharkiv front axis has been oriented to-date, does two things. 1) Creates a massive flank to use against occupied Luhansk, 2) A massively vulnerable flank along the border that can be turned against them. Difficult call. Maybe re-dedicating to clearing the right bank of the Dnieper and taking Kherson is now slightly more favored. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Originally Posted By DonS: I think there is potential for them to take Lyman and then a good section in the north. Quickly. Agreed, but pushing along the Svatove and Starobilsk axis, the way the Kharkiv front axis has been oriented to-date, does two things. 1) Creates a massive flank to use against occupied Luhansk, 2) A massively vulnerable flank along the border that can be turned against them. Difficult call. Maybe re-dedicating to clearing the right bank of the Dnieper and taking Kherson is now slightly more favored. The UA left flank would be open to the Russian border, but I believe it’s safe to say that the Russians will not be able to move forces into that area without us knowing. |
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FIN
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:42:20 PM EDT
[#34]
Those dismissing the “partial mobilization” as impossible and claim that the mass mobilization system collapsed with the SU have not kept up with recent actual academic research into Russian Armed Forces. The fact remains that the RF has 33 million military age males available for service (not disqualified) of which pool about 8 million had actually served in the military. According to western estimates, about 2 million of those are listed in the inactive reserve and less than 100 000 in the new (since 2021) active reserve system BARS.
Those less than 100k have received training monthly and are like USNG or USAR, former active duty who continue to serve as volunteer reserve. Of the remaining 1.9 or so million, the first to be mobilized is the grade with the youngest soldiers having the least time from active service, for rank and file (eq. “enlisted”) and NCOs that’s at most 35 year olds. So you are not going to see grandpas like in one of the volunteer units. And the material situation remains to be seen, but any talk about Mosins and T55s is just ludicrous. Russian army didn’t adopt the AK-12 or any of the earlier Russian era modernized variants because they have millions of AK-74s and AKMs in stock. Even western analysts agree that Russia has over 10k tanks in storage and is only missing (reservist) crews and supplies for them. And that 10k of T-80, T-72 and T-64 is most likely an underestimate, because before Russia gave LPR and DPR T-62s, most analysts claimed all T-62s had been scrapped. The fact that Putin announced just 300k to be called up aligns well with the difficulties in providing refresher training and equipping new troops during the “voluntary” contract recruitment campaign thus far. It should be entirely within their capability to bring those troops in as attrition replacements of existing units in a month or so. Any further mobilization beyond that is not impossible, but will likely take more time and effort. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:43:30 PM EDT
[#35]
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FIN
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:45:32 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By THOT_Vaccine: Sort of a relief really. What would you do with a bunch of Russian human rights refugees? Put them to work, building barricades and mine fields? I hope the damn idiots of MIGRI won't do the same thing as with Shia and Sunni Iraqis and house them in the same reception center in the same rooms as the Ukrainian refugees. Having grown Iraqi men fight each other may seem funny, but the Ukrainians here are all women and children. The Russians fleeing their country to avoid military service... not so much. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:47:46 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Bizzarolibe: I've said from the beginning that this ends one of two ways: a limited nuclear exchange or a full-blown nuclear exchange. I'm generally not a doomer, not a prepper, and have supported UKR since the beginning (and still do). I don't know what the right move is at this point to be perfectly honest. It ends one of THREE ways. The third way is a bullet in the back of Putin's head, and a negotiated settlement with the new Russian leaders. |
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ME, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:48:48 PM EDT
[#38]
Those tanks are sitting parked outdoors, and amateurs have been county the numbers that are turretless rusting hulks. The canabilized those storages for a year to come up with the initial force.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:49:48 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Freiheit8472: Man talk about "squirters"! How would you handle these people as Finland and The EU? Give them asylum sort of thing? I guess they can hangout legally until visa requirements expire or change. Maybe give them the option to renounce their Russian citizenship or depot them? I'd like to figure out who amongst them supports the war and just doesn't want to fight (probably a lot). ETA: True statement about the stay begins tho. Such an anachronistic reality there. 100 years ago the communist governing principles started and persist
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Freiheit8472: Originally Posted By i_tell_you_what:
Man talk about "squirters"! How would you handle these people as Finland and The EU? Give them asylum sort of thing? I guess they can hangout legally until visa requirements expire or change. Maybe give them the option to renounce their Russian citizenship or depot them? I'd like to figure out who amongst them supports the war and just doesn't want to fight (probably a lot). ETA: True statement about the stay begins tho. Such an anachronistic reality there. 100 years ago the communist governing principles started and persist
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:50:29 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Red_Blue: Those dismissing the “partial mobilization” as impossible and claim that the mass mobilization system collapsed with the SU have not kept up with recent actual academic research into Russian Armed Forces. The fact remains that the RF has 33 million military age males available for service (not disqualified) of which pool about 8 million had actually served in the military. According to western estimates, about 2 million of those are listed in the inactive reserve and less than 100 000 in the new (since 2021) active reserve system BARS. Those less than 100k have received training monthly and are like USNG or USAR, former active duty who continue to serve as volunteer reserve. Of the remaining 1.9 or so million, the first to be mobilized is the grade with the youngest soldiers having the least time from active service, for rank and file (eq. “enlisted”) and NCOs that’s at most 35 year olds. So you are not going to see grandpas like in one of the volunteer units. And the material situation remains to be seen, but any talk about Mosins and T55s is just ludicrous. Russian army didn’t adopt the AK-12 or any of the earlier Russian era modernized variants because they have millions of AK-74s and AKMs in stock. Even western analysts agree that Russia has over 10k tanks in storage and is only missing (reservist) crews and supplies for them. And that 10k of T-80, T-72 and T-64 is most likely an underestimate, because before Russia gave LPR and DPR T-62s, most analysts claimed all T-62s had been scrapped. The fact that Putin announced just 300k to be called up aligns well with the difficulties in providing refresher training and equipping new troops during the “voluntary” contract recruitment campaign thus far. It should be entirely within their capability to bring those troops in as attrition replacements of existing units in a month or so. Any further mobilization beyond that is not impossible, but will likely take more time and effort. Do you think the new reservists will perform better than the old regular army? Even with the degraded WWII equipment they will head into the field with? Even given the fact that they can't feed, arm, or offer medical care to modern standards with what they have in the field now? |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:53:13 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Red_Blue: Those dismissing the “partial mobilization” as impossible and claim that the mass mobilization system collapsed with the SU have not kept up with recent actual academic research into Russian Armed Forces. The fact remains that the RF has 33 million military age males available for service (not disqualified) of which pool about 8 million had actually served in the military. According to western estimates, about 2 million of those are listed in the inactive reserve and less than 100 000 in the new (since 2021) active reserve system BARS. Those less than 100k have received training monthly and are like USNG or USAR, former active duty who continue to serve as volunteer reserve. Of the remaining 1.9 or so million, the first to be mobilized is the grade with the youngest soldiers having the least time from active service, for rank and file (eq. “enlisted”) and NCOs that’s at most 35 year olds. So you are not going to see grandpas like in one of the volunteer units. And the material situation remains to be seen, but any talk about Mosins and T55s is just ludicrous. Russian army didn’t adopt the AK-12 or any of the earlier Russian era modernized variants because they have millions of AK-74s and AKMs in stock. Even western analysts agree that Russia has over 10k tanks in storage and is only missing (reservist) crews and supplies for them. And that 10k of T-80, T-72 and T-64 is most likely an underestimate, because before Russia gave LPR and DPR T-62s, most analysts claimed all T-62s had been scrapped. The fact that Putin announced just 300k to be called up aligns well with the difficulties in providing refresher training and equipping new troops during the “voluntary” contract recruitment campaign thus far. It should be entirely within their capability to bring those troops in as attrition replacements of existing units in a month or so. Any further mobilization beyond that is not impossible, but will likely take more time and effort. This all sounds very impressive on paper, but during this entire war, the Russians have shown they can't really move any of their ground forces much beyond 70km from any rail lines they control. They also have a deteriorating logistical problem exacerbated by the recent acquisition of precision artillery systems. I would expect more of this.
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LA, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:54:15 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Red_Blue: Those dismissing the "partial mobilization" as impossible and claim that the mass mobilization system collapsed with the SU have not kept up with recent actual academic research into Russian Armed Forces. The fact remains that the RF has 33 million military age males available for service (not disqualified) of which pool about 8 million had actually served in the military. According to western estimates, about 2 million of those are listed in the inactive reserve and less than 100 000 in the new (since 2021) active reserve system BARS. Those less than 100k have received training monthly and are like USNG or USAR, former active duty who continue to serve as volunteer reserve. Of the remaining 1.9 or so million, the first to be mobilized is the grade with the youngest soldiers having the least time from active service, for rank and file (eq. "enlisted") and NCOs that's at most 35 year olds. So you are not going to see grandpas like in one of the volunteer units. And the material situation remains to be seen, but any talk about Mosins and T55s is just ludicrous. Russian army didn't adopt the AK-12 or any of the earlier Russian era modernized variants because they have millions of AK-74s and AKMs in stock. Even western analysts agree that Russia has over 10k tanks in storage and is only missing (reservist) crews and supplies for them. And that 10k of T-80, T-72 and T-64 is most likely an underestimate, because before Russia gave LPR and DPR T-62s, most analysts claimed all T-62s had been scrapped. The fact that Putin announced just 300k to be called up aligns well with the difficulties in providing refresher training and equipping new troops during the "voluntary" contract recruitment campaign thus far. It should be entirely within their capability to bring those troops in as attrition replacements of existing units in a month or so. Any further mobilization beyond that is not impossible, but will likely take more time and effort. How effective will these 300000 be? How well trained are the actual reservists being called up presently and how much effort and time can/will be spent to bring them up to an effective level of proficiency? They've already had to change laws on desertion and surrendering. As for equipment. I'm sure they have shit piled high in warehouses but what shape is it in. How effective will the tanks be? Will they break down? Modern fire control? We will eventually get answers to these questions and more but for now I see little reason for faith that things will suddenly improve for the Russians. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:54:17 PM EDT
[#43]
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:56:05 PM EDT
[#44]
Protest feed
 ????? ???????? ? ?????? ?????? ????????? ??????????? ? ?? / LIVE 21.09.22 |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:01:15 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Red_Blue: Those dismissing the "partial mobilization" as impossible and claim that the mass mobilization system collapsed with the SU have not kept up with recent actual academic research into Russian Armed Forces. The fact remains that the RF has 33 million military age males available for service (not disqualified) of which pool about 8 million had actually served in the military. According to western estimates, about 2 million of those are listed in the inactive reserve and less than 100 000 in the new (since 2021) active reserve system BARS. Those less than 100k have received training monthly and are like USNG or USAR, former active duty who continue to serve as volunteer reserve. Of the remaining 1.9 or so million, the first to be mobilized is the grade with the youngest soldiers having the least time from active service, for rank and file (eq. "enlisted") and NCOs that's at most 35 year olds. So you are not going to see grandpas like in one of the volunteer units. And the material situation remains to be seen, but any talk about Mosins and T55s is just ludicrous. Russian army didn't adopt the AK-12 or any of the earlier Russian era modernized variants because they have millions of AK-74s and AKMs in stock. Even western analysts agree that Russia has over 10k tanks in storage and is only missing (reservist) crews and supplies for them. And that 10k of T-80, T-72 and T-64 is most likely an underestimate, because before Russia gave LPR and DPR T-62s, most analysts claimed all T-62s had been scrapped. The fact that Putin announced just 300k to be called up aligns well with the difficulties in providing refresher training and equipping new troops during the "voluntary" contract recruitment campaign thus far. It should be entirely within their capability to bring those troops in as attrition replacements of existing units in a month or so. Any further mobilization beyond that is not impossible, but will likely take more time and effort. Yet we've SEEN mosins fielded and know for a fact tanks are going that can't even shoot- many are in extremely poor condition. I don't think people are saying partial mob can't happen, just that it's too little too late. Those that do the monthly training often don't do any real training also. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:05:00 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sq40: Putin is an aging dictator. He is acting like elderly kings have done forever, make one last big play for adding something to his legacy. He was going to make Ukraine his golden years acquisition for his own glory. Now that his legacy is in shambles, and he is embarrassed to the point of potentially being dethroned, he is going to do absolutely anything to try to reverse things, this means all costs, even his own life, never mind the lives of the people he rules. It’s victory and personal adulation and all that goes with it, or it’s death. That’s where we are at. If there were ever a justification to assassinate a world leader, Putin has earned it, and billions of lives are on the line. Putin must die as soon as possible. It would take less than a dollar to end this madness. (even with inflation figured in for 9x18 rounds) All it would take is for someone to have the motive, means, and opportunity to end all of this. To give his life for the life of the many who will die in the coming months. He/she would be a true hero. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:05:25 PM EDT
[#47]
So what are we looking at NBC wise?
VX/Mustard/Sarin? Anthrax? |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:06:01 PM EDT
[#48]
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:07:44 PM EDT
[#49]
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USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:08:25 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Freiheit8472: Man talk about "squirters"! How would you handle these people as Finland and The EU? Give them asylum sort of thing? I guess they can hangout legally until visa requirements expire or change. Maybe give them the option to renounce their Russian citizenship or depot them? I'd like to figure out who amongst them supports the war and just doesn't want to fight (probably a lot). ETA: True statement about the stay begins tho. Such an anachronistic reality there. 100 years ago the communist governing principles started and persist
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Freiheit8472: Originally Posted By i_tell_you_what:
Man talk about "squirters"! How would you handle these people as Finland and The EU? Give them asylum sort of thing? I guess they can hangout legally until visa requirements expire or change. Maybe give them the option to renounce their Russian citizenship or depot them? I'd like to figure out who amongst them supports the war and just doesn't want to fight (probably a lot). ETA: True statement about the stay begins tho. Such an anachronistic reality there. 100 years ago the communist governing principles started and persist
They should have to pass through filtration camps. |
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