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Posted: 10/27/2021 8:27:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: The_Beer_Slayer]
This is now the active "shit News links, thanks to BerettaGuy: Originally Posted By BerettaGuy: LINKS TO UKRAINIAN NEWS SOURCES IN ENGLISH Kyiv Post Ukrainian News UKRInform EUROMAIDEN PRESS New Voice of Ukraine Kyiv Independent Ukraine World InterFax Ukraine UATV Ukrainian Journal Official Website of the President of Ukraine Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Save these links. I can't post all the headlines like I've done in the past - too much news and too often. Please @ me with additional stuff to be added here. I don't currently have time to properly curate this thread otherwise. New news link c/o berettaguy: Ukrainian Pravda https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ Stop fake, anti - disinformation site: https://www.stopfake.org/en/main/ |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 3:17:04 AM EDT
[#1]
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Posted: 9/21/2022 3:27:48 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Francisco_dAnconia: I bet it would be even more "spectacular" if you were the target. I don't recall seeing footage of this type of weapon before. My initial impression, especially with that background music, is that it looked beautiful, like Tinkerbell spreading pixie dust over the town. Now that know what the weapon is and what it looks like it doesn't look as fake (or pretty) anymore. I see a couple of Google Earth screenshots, but the imagery is dated from 2020 and therefore doesn't show the village burned out. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Francisco_dAnconia: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: It does look very "spectacular" unless you are in the middle of it. It looks like the numerous other videos of the Russians doing the same shit in other places. The video is legit. I don't recall seeing footage of this type of weapon before. My initial impression, especially with that background music, is that it looked beautiful, like Tinkerbell spreading pixie dust over the town. Now that know what the weapon is and what it looks like it doesn't look as fake (or pretty) anymore. Originally Posted By Jack67: Follow the twitter link and scroll down. The geolocating evidence shows the whole village burned out. Pics are there. This was the weapon used. |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 3:32:20 AM EDT
[#3]
Good thread by Kamil on the challenges and dangers for Russia of Mobilization:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572270599535214598.html |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 3:37:17 AM EDT
[#4]
Of all the shit decisions by shit bully dictators of shit countries....
Putin: "Hold my vodka!" |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 3:43:02 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Good thread by Kamil on the challenges and dangers for Russia of Mobilization: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572270599535214598.html Well he mobilized. Is Putin a dead man walking? 
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Posted: 9/21/2022 3:52:23 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Jack67]
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GrinningDag: Well he mobilized. Is Putin a dead man walking? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GrinningDag: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Good thread by Kamil on the challenges and dangers for Russia of Mobilization: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572270599535214598.html Well he mobilized. Is Putin a dead man walking? Yes, but not necessarily immediately. - in light of Russia’s limited mobilization capability (see Galeev), they have mobilized what they CAN handle. - it is far too little to make a decisive battlefield effect - next round of mobilization follows the same pattern - rinse, repeat until: coup/revolution The numbers given are really only a little bit above what I estimate it would take to reconstitute the regular Army forces destroyed since the invasion started (240k total casualties). They are using the existing OOB infrastructure in lieu of creating new units or truly building a larger reserve army. This, they can do. But it will not win the war conventionally, not by a long shot. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 3:54:19 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Charging_Handle: I'm just about to the point I think NATO ought to assemble a few divisions and move into Ukraine. I am so sick of this son of a bitch. Somebody is going to have to do the needful on this demented fucker. Fuck Putin and his threats. If he wants a war with the west, then give him the opportunity. At the very minimum, it is now time for the west to provide Ukraine any weaponry it may feel is required to finish this job. Same |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 3:55:10 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: That number is far, far too small to have a “war winning” effect. They may be thinking it is enough to secure Donetsk and Luhansk, and Crimea. Then they can declare victory and sue for peace. This won’t work, but it gives them breathing room for six more months to see how things develop. It’s a classic bad strategic move as it offers no hope of achieving the necessary objectives for a peace. Incrementalism won’t work here. They need to go big or go home. They aren’t doing either. It took 7 months for the first 200k crack Troops to get run through with a smaller Ukrainian army. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 3:57:10 AM EDT
[#9]
I just can't see where throwing an additional 300,000 unmotivated mobilization reservists at this problem is going to help Russia. Ukraine already has the manpower to equal this. And by the time the Russian reservists are trained up, equipped and make it to the front, Ukraine will likely exceed those numbers by a significant margin. Keeping in mind the 3-1 ratio needed by the attacking force to achieve superiority over the defender, Russia is going to come up short again, just as they did in Feb/Mar.
Meanwhile, Russia is low on ammo. They are having to beg North Korea for 50 year old artillery and mortar rounds. The bulk of their useful tanks have already been damaged, destroyed or captured in Ukraine. Their logistics are a mess. And they still have no answer for HIMARS which can sit back and devastate their rear areas. IMHO, all Putin is going to gain by doing this is weakening Russia and destroying its military capabilities even more, possibly achieving total destruction that would take decades to recover from. What a blunder this whole shit show was. And they just keep doubling down on it. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:00:53 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: Same Personally I feel the same, but politically it’s difficult and in the long run unnecessary. Of course, it means a longer and bloodier war. What is do-able is assembling one+ US and two NATO divisions and positioning them in Poland and Romania. That’s do-able politically at this time, and arguably prudent. The slow-boil on Putin is still the right play; it’s the one most likely to get him cooked and also bring down the rotten FSB kleptocratic regime. That’s the best chance of long-term peace. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:06:40 AM EDT
[#11]
They are rushing the Referendum now so they can proclaim the occupied territorys are now Russia and they can then use weapons such as chemical/nuclear to protect Russian land according to russian constitution.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:08:57 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AROKIE]
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Personally I feel the same, but politically it’s difficult and in the long run unnecessary. Of course, it means a longer and bloodier war. What is do-able is assembling one+ US and two NATO divisions and positioning them in Poland and Romania. That’s do-able politically at this time, and arguably prudent. The slow-boil on Putin is still the right play; it’s the one most likely to get him cooked and also bring down the rotten FSB kleptocratic regime. That’s the best chance of long-term peace. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Originally Posted By fadedsun: Same Personally I feel the same, but politically it’s difficult and in the long run unnecessary. Of course, it means a longer and bloodier war. What is do-able is assembling one+ US and two NATO divisions and positioning them in Poland and Romania. That’s do-able politically at this time, and arguably prudent. The slow-boil on Putin is still the right play; it’s the one most likely to get him cooked and also bring down the rotten FSB kleptocratic regime. That’s the best chance of long-term peace. I believe the slow boil approach is dated now, with russia mobilizing and rushing the referendum, Ukraine doesnt have the time. Once they pass the sham referendums and those territory's become russian, then this war will escalate beyond anything we have seen so far by multitudes, with out a doubt. I believe alot of folks are underestimating russias ability to wage war. Sure they have got there ass kicked so far, but once they think they are actually protecting russian land then it becomes a war and not a special military operation in the russian publics eyes and the russian gov will see a larger support for escalation. And they will escalate. |
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USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:21:11 AM EDT
[#13]
Even Scholz is on the fuck Russia train. Enough is enough
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USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:25:36 AM EDT
[#14]
Everyone is thinking it but here it is.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:31:11 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: I believe the slow boil approach is dated now, with russia mobilizing and rushing the referendum, Ukraine doesnt have the time. Once they pass the sham referendums and those territory's become russian, then this war will escalate beyond anything we have seen so far by multitudes, with out a doubt. I believe alot of folks are underestimating russias ability to wage war. Sure they have got there ass kicked so far, but once they think they are actually protecting russian land then it becomes a war and not a special military operation in the russian publics eyes and the russian gov will see a larger support for escalation. And they will escalate.  Attached File |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:31:31 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Jack67]
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: I believe the slow boil approach is dated now, with russia mobilizing and rushing the referendum, Ukraine doesnt have the time. Once they pass the sham referendums and those territory's become russian, then this war will escalate beyond anything we have seen so far by multitudes, with out a doubt. I believe alot of folks are underestimating russias ability to wage war. Sure they have got there ass kicked so far, but once they think they are actually protecting russian land then it becomes a war and not a special military operation in the russian publics eyes and the russian gov will see a larger support for escalation. And they will escalate. I really think we have that ability very well understood right now. In fact I’d wager real $$ that we have intelligence arms that understand it in more depth and detail than any single person they have in place, even at the very top. Russian’s don’t think they are defending Russia; they know very well it’s just a borderland game for the emperor to get more loot. Those territories don’t “become” Russian from a rigged vote, and no one in Russia buys the nonsense, either. The slow boil approach, of which I was not a believer initially, is working perfectly as this is EXACTLY what it would predict and encourage. Incremental, ineffective squandering of blood and treasure until regime implosion. Check, it’s working. I viscerally didn’t like that approach as articulated back in March and April, but it’s working great. They have spent 30 years hollowing out their capabilities and bluffing, and it’s been called. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:31:53 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zam18th: Everyone is thinking it but here it is.
exactly what i said alittle bit ago |
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USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:36:20 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: exactly what i said alittle bit ago I'm going to let all my elected officials know my position. Maybe even Joe   It might carry very little weight but it's the least I can do. |
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PA, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:39:46 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Francisco_dAnconia: Has this been confirmed? Are there any aftermath photos for proof? I'm asking because the video (and audio) are very cinematic feeling. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Francisco_dAnconia: Originally Posted By Jack67: A fresh day in Ukraine, a fresh Russian war crime: indiscriminate use of incendiary munitions on civilian homes, churches, etc.. Ozerne, neary Lyman in Donetsk Ob. Just liberated two weeks ago.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/556465/Ozerne_thermit_9_2022_jpg-2532684.JPG I'm asking because the video (and audio) are very cinematic feeling. The first I saw it, my reaction was "Christmas Express" or something. It had a very movie special effect feel. I thought I even remembered the exact scene. I was on phone at the time and couldn't be sure of resolution so I didn't comment. |
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USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:41:41 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Zam18th]
[#20]
Time to GTFO before they end up sunflower food. The Kremlin will realize their mistake soon and put a stop to it.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:51:22 AM EDT
[#21]
Too little too late, puty
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PA, USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:55:36 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By thehun06: That is freakin' gross... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By thehun06: Originally Posted By M-1975:
That is freakin' gross... Initially, I attributed a lot of similar imagery to artillery impacts, no time for housekeeping, being over run, search and salvage, etc. As time went on, I started to wonder if that is just how they (Russians) live and operate. It reminds me of what Ive seen from college kids making their party spots. You could probably photoshop a beer keg and a sofa near that wooden table and no one would know any different. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:00:34 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AROKIE]
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: I really think we have that ability very well understood right now. In fact I’d wager real $$ that we have intelligence arms that understand it in more depth and detail than any single person they have in place, even at the very top. Russian’s don’t think they are defending Russia; they know very well it’s just a borderland game for the emperor to get more loot. Those territories don’t “become” Russian from a rigged vote, and no one in Russia buys the nonsense, either. The slow boil approach, of which I was not a believer initially, is working perfectly as this is EXACTLY what it would predict and encourage. Incremental, ineffective squandering of blood and treasure until regime implosion. Check, it’s working. I viscerally didn’t like that approach as articulated back in March and April, but it’s working great. They have spent 30 years hollowing out their capabilities and bluffing, and it’s been called. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Originally Posted By AROKIE: I believe the slow boil approach is dated now, with russia mobilizing and rushing the referendum, Ukraine doesnt have the time. Once they pass the sham referendums and those territory's become russian, then this war will escalate beyond anything we have seen so far by multitudes, with out a doubt. I believe alot of folks are underestimating russias ability to wage war. Sure they have got there ass kicked so far, but once they think they are actually protecting russian land then it becomes a war and not a special military operation in the russian publics eyes and the russian gov will see a larger support for escalation. And they will escalate. I really think we have that ability very well understood right now. In fact I’d wager real $$ that we have intelligence arms that understand it in more depth and detail than any single person they have in place, even at the very top. Russian’s don’t think they are defending Russia; they know very well it’s just a borderland game for the emperor to get more loot. Those territories don’t “become” Russian from a rigged vote, and no one in Russia buys the nonsense, either. The slow boil approach, of which I was not a believer initially, is working perfectly as this is EXACTLY what it would predict and encourage. Incremental, ineffective squandering of blood and treasure until regime implosion. Check, it’s working. I viscerally didn’t like that approach as articulated back in March and April, but it’s working great. They have spent 30 years hollowing out their capabilities and bluffing, and it’s been called. You think they no longer have the ability to escalate? dont kid yourself. They very much do and they will. You think everyday russians are not on board with putin?? if that was the case then this mobilization wont work. But it will because they believe Putin and will die in Ukraine for him. You are terribly wrong about everyday russians and what they think. Time article from Aug 24th about Russians support for the war and for Putin. "But one thing that hasn’t seemed to change is Russian public opinion. According to the Levada Center, an independent polling agency in Moscow, more than three-quarters of Russians continue to support what the Kremlin calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine, with just 18% opposed. Putin’s approval rating is similarly high at 83%, a figure that has only risen since the war began. A slightly smaller, but nonetheless consistent, majority of the public believe that the country is headed in the right direction." https://time.com/6208238/why-russian-support-for-the-war-in-ukraine-hasnt-wavered/ |
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USA
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:02:55 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By torstin: The first I saw it, my reaction was "Christmas Express" or something. It had a very movie special effect feel. I thought I even remembered the exact scene. I was on phone at the time and couldn't be sure of resolution so I didn't comment. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By torstin: Originally Posted By Francisco_dAnconia: Originally Posted By Jack67: A fresh day in Ukraine, a fresh Russian war crime: indiscriminate use of incendiary munitions on civilian homes, churches, etc.. Ozerne, neary Lyman in Donetsk Ob. Just liberated two weeks ago.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/556465/Ozerne_thermit_9_2022_jpg-2532684.JPG I'm asking because the video (and audio) are very cinematic feeling. The first I saw it, my reaction was "Christmas Express" or something. It had a very movie special effect feel. I thought I even remembered the exact scene. I was on phone at the time and couldn't be sure of resolution so I didn't comment. Well, on to the mobilization and more nuke threats from Putin... |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:08:47 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zam18th: Even Scholz is on the fuck Russia train. Enough is enough
Took him 7 months. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:23:05 AM EDT
[#26]
So there it is….we’ll hold phony elections that make Kherson and Zaporizhzhia part of Russia, and when the Ukrainian counter offensive gets there we can now say they’ve invaded Russia and Nuke them. That’s exactly where this is headed.
I, for one, did not want to live in interesting times |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:23:16 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Jack67]
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: You think they no longer have the ability to escalate? dont kid yourself. They very much do and they will. You think everyday russians are not on board with putin?? if that was the case then this mobilization wont work. But it will because they believe Putin and will die in Ukraine for him. You are terribly wrong about everyday russians and what they think. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: You think they no longer have the ability to escalate? dont kid yourself. They very much do and they will. You think everyday russians are not on board with putin?? if that was the case then this mobilization wont work. But it will because they believe Putin and will die in Ukraine for him. You are terribly wrong about everyday russians and what they think. Whoa, slow your roll a bit. I said nothing - nada - regarding Russia’s willingness to try escalation. What I said was we had an acute understanding of their warmaking ability. Vastly different things. Also, you are quoting a Russian source that is beholden to the government with regard to support for said government. Do not take that as gospel. You are terribly wrong about everyday russians and what they think. I collect information from actual Russians inside Russia roughly weekly, via friends and family. I do feel I have a little insight, but not in any way complete. What I do not do is take at face value any official Russian or internal media statements like the one you quote. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:25:00 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Circuits: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/1239/way_past_that_png-2533809.JPG Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Circuits: Originally Posted By AROKIE: I believe the slow boil approach is dated now, with russia mobilizing and rushing the referendum, Ukraine doesnt have the time. Once they pass the sham referendums and those territory's become russian, then this war will escalate beyond anything we have seen so far by multitudes, with out a doubt. I believe alot of folks are underestimating russias ability to wage war. Sure they have got there ass kicked so far, but once they think they are actually protecting russian land then it becomes a war and not a special military operation in the russian publics eyes and the russian gov will see a larger support for escalation. And they will escalate. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/1239/way_past_that_png-2533809.JPG lol 
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:27:06 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AROKIE]
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Whoa, slow your roll a bit. I said nothing - nada - regarding Russia’s willingness to try escalation. What I said was we had an acute understanding of their warmaking ability. Vastly different things. Also, you are quoting a Russian source that is beholden to the government with regard to support for said government. Do not take that as gospel. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Originally Posted By AROKIE: You think they no longer have the ability to escalate? dont kid yourself. They very much do and they will. You think everyday russians are not on board with putin?? if that was the case then this mobilization wont work. But it will because they believe Putin and will die in Ukraine for him. You are terribly wrong about everyday russians and what they think. Whoa, slow your roll a bit. I said nothing - nada - regarding Russia’s willingness to try escalation. What I said was we had an acute understanding of their warmaking ability. Vastly different things. Also, you are quoting a Russian source that is beholden to the government with regard to support for said government. Do not take that as gospel. wrong, western polls also show the same support from russian citizens for the war. "Indeed, public opinion polls have consistently shown overwhelming support (70 percent or higher) for what Moscow calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine." https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/07/my-country-right-or-wrong-russian-public-opinion-on-ukraine-pub-87803 and another. https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/why-do-so-many-russians-say-they-support-the-war-in-ukraine so you are wrong on what everyday russians think and feel about putin and his special military operation. I believe you think you have an acute understanding of there ability to wage war from what you have seen up until now, and ya I agree they suck at it so far but im not naive in thinking they cannot bring more to the fight. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:31:56 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Jack67]
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: wrong, western polls also show the same support from russian citizens for the war. "Indeed, public opinion polls have consistently shown overwhelming support (70 percent or higher) for what Moscow calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine." https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/07/my-country-right-or-wrong-russian-public-opinion-on-ukraine-pub-87803 You are making an entirely circular reference, that is not any different polling. It’s the same internal Russian polling being reported in a different source. I am not sure if you are being intentionally misleading here, or unfamiliar with these social science techniques. Read the sources of the Carnegie report. They are the same, not western at all. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:36:08 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By trio: So there it is….we’ll hold phony elections that make Kherson and Zaporizhzhia part of Russia, and when the Ukrainian counter offensive gets there we can now say they’ve invaded Russia and Nuke them. That’s exactly where this is headed. I, for one, did not want to live in interesting times Weak men create hard times. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:37:27 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AROKIE]
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: You are making an entirely circular reference, that is not any different polling. It’s the same internal Russian polling being reported in a different source. I am not sure if you are being intentionally misleading here, or unfamiliar with these social science techniques. Read the sources of the Carnegie report. They are the same, not western at all. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Originally Posted By AROKIE: wrong, western polls also show the same support from russian citizens for the war. "Indeed, public opinion polls have consistently shown overwhelming support (70 percent or higher) for what Moscow calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine." https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/07/my-country-right-or-wrong-russian-public-opinion-on-ukraine-pub-87803 You are making an entirely circular reference, that is not any different polling. It’s the same internal Russian polling being reported in a different source. I am not sure if you are being intentionally misleading here, or unfamiliar with these social science techniques. Read the sources of the Carnegie report. They are the same, not western at all. Oh come on, stop being argumentative, lol. You know damn well im not "intentionally misleading". You know my stance on this war so you know im not like that. But im also not blind to fact that Russians do support the war and do support Putin. and im not disillusioned into thinking that russian is done, nor do i think they cannot bring much more to the fight. They are not done, nor are they on there last leg to stand on. also on the carangie report they did touch on the subject of russian polls and its telling. HOW RELIABLE ARE RUSSIAN POLLS? The high levels of support for the actions of the Russian military and the surge in approval ratings for the Russian leadership have provoked frequent discussions inside Russia and abroad over the reliability of Russian polls. Many critics argue that pressure on dissent and the introduction of new criminal penalties for charges of “discrediting the armed forces” and other offenses mean that people are more scared and less willing to take part in opinion polls than they may have once been. However, research by the Levada Center to measure the response rate (as per the recommendations of the American Association for Public Opinion Research) does not back up this hypothesis.6 The frequency of responses, communication, and refusal to respond to Levada Center polls are broadly similar to what they were back in January 2021.7 In other words, Levada experts have not found corroborating evidence that Russian respondents have become more reluctant to answer sociologists’ questions since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The authors are, of course, mindful that the general atmosphere in Russia has grown increasingly repressive over the past decade. Either way, additional research does not back up assertions that people who do not approve of the country’s leadership are more likely to refuse to take part in a poll or that polls only represent people who are prepared to engage and answer questions.8 As for polling experiments that appear to show a lower level of support for the “special operation,”9 the results cannot always be interpreted unambiguously. Researchers who carried out a series of similar experiments looking at mass support for Putin in Russia from 2015 to 2021 warn against the unequivocal interpretation of their results.10 It’s also worth noting that the overall patterns of people’s attitudes to what is happening today are entirely in keeping with the results of polls carried out at the end of 2021 and start of 2022.11 By the start of February, two thirds of the public already supported the Russian regime and its Ukraine policy in one way or another. That support grew as the conflict escalated, with most Russians laying the blame for that escalation on the West. The portions of Russian society that expressed support or opposition were more or less clearly formed, and their composition has not changed significantly. It’s also worthwhile recalling that in 2014, many observers also refused to believe public opinion polls showing high figures of support for the Russian political regime following the annexation of Crimea.12 Over time, the expression “the post-Crimea consensus” became commonplace in analysis about post-2014 shifts in Russian public opinion. Few experts today dispute the existence of such a shift. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:40:29 AM EDT
[#33]
In addition to greenlighting heavier/longer ranged weapons, I think we need to start flooding Ukraine with small arms. Ukraine has a lot of people who are willing to fight, but they don't have enough equipment to arm and train them. As the collective West, it's time that we rectify that.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:41:51 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: In addition to greenlighting heavier/longer ranged weapons, I think we need to start flooding Ukraine with small arms. Ukraine has a lot of people who are willing to fight, but they don't have enough equipment to arm and train them. As the collective West, it's time that we rectify that. There needs to be a major ramp up with everything from Heavy weapons down to uniforms. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:44:25 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By trio: So there it is….we’ll hold phony elections that make Kherson and Zaporizhzhia part of Russia, and when the Ukrainian counter offensive gets there we can now say they’ve invaded Russia and Nuke them. That’s exactly where this is headed. I, for one, did not want to live in interesting times what do you mean "gets there"? Ukraine is already there. Russia does not have control over any full region in Ukraine. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:45:32 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: There needs to be a major ramp up with everything from Heavy weapons down to uniforms. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: In addition to greenlighting heavier/longer ranged weapons, I think we need to start flooding Ukraine with small arms. Ukraine has a lot of people who are willing to fight, but they don't have enough equipment to arm and train them. As the collective West, it's time that we rectify that. There needs to be a major ramp up with everything from Heavy weapons down to uniforms. Agreed. I don't think that mobilization is going to win Russia the war by any means, but it's going to cause it to drag out longer and it's going to mean that Russia will continue terrorizing the Ukrainian population. The west absolutely cannot afford to lose our nerve at this point. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:48:02 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: what do you mean "gets there"? Ukraine is already there. Russia does not have control over any full region in Ukraine. What about Crimea? |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:48:49 AM EDT
[Last Edit: trio]
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: Weak men create hard times. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: Originally Posted By trio: So there it is….we’ll hold phony elections that make Kherson and Zaporizhzhia part of Russia, and when the Ukrainian counter offensive gets there we can now say they’ve invaded Russia and Nuke them. That’s exactly where this is headed. I, for one, did not want to live in interesting times Weak men create hard times. Normal,y I would agree with you, but these interesting times are created by one weak man on top of the largest nuclear stockpile in the world. Someone really needs to dead him |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:49:54 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AROKIE]
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Agreed. I don't think that mobilization is going to win Russia the war by any means, but it's going to cause it to drag out longer and it's going to mean that Russia will continue terrorizing the Ukrainian population. The west absolutely cannot afford to lose our nerve at this point. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Originally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: In addition to greenlighting heavier/longer ranged weapons, I think we need to start flooding Ukraine with small arms. Ukraine has a lot of people who are willing to fight, but they don't have enough equipment to arm and train them. As the collective West, it's time that we rectify that. There needs to be a major ramp up with everything from Heavy weapons down to uniforms. Agreed. I don't think that mobilization is going to win Russia the war by any means, but it's going to cause it to drag out longer and it's going to mean that Russia will continue terrorizing the Ukrainian population. The west absolutely cannot afford to lose our nerve at this point. agreed its just going to prolong the war, in which Ukraine doesnt need. Its time for the piece meal assistance the west is doing to stop and go full on with support for them. the slow boil plan by slowly giving ukraine weapons here and there to drain russian resources does not bid well for Ukraines future. Even Zelensky knows that and is constantly saying so. Send them Atacms and better armor. I know it will take awhile for training on alot of that but this war is no where close to being done. We are looking at years till it even looks like the end is near. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:51:48 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PMB1086: What about Crimea? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PMB1086: Originally Posted By AROKIE: what do you mean "gets there"? Ukraine is already there. Russia does not have control over any full region in Ukraine. What about Crimea? Im referencing the sham referendums coming up next week.. Crimea is a 2014 sham vote, and anyways Ukraine has hit crimea hard to the point where russia has moved its major black sea fleet elsewhere and moved most the fighter jets from there.. Russia didnt nuke Ukraine for striking crimea. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:56:00 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Im referencing the sham referendums coming up next week.. Crimea is a 2014 sham vote, and anyways Ukraine has hit crimea hard to the point where russia has moved its major black sea fleet elsewhere and moved most the fighter jets from there.. Russia didnt nuke Ukraine for striking crimea. Oh, I gotcha. Sorry, it's late and I read that out of context |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:56:32 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: Took him 7 months. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: Originally Posted By Zam18th: Even Scholz is on the fuck Russia train. Enough is enough
Took him 7 months. And he'll probably change his mind tomorrow. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:57:23 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PMB1086: Oh, I gotcha. Sorry, it's late and I read that out of context Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PMB1086: Originally Posted By AROKIE: Im referencing the sham referendums coming up next week.. Crimea is a 2014 sham vote, and anyways Ukraine has hit crimea hard to the point where russia has moved its major black sea fleet elsewhere and moved most the fighter jets from there.. Russia didnt nuke Ukraine for striking crimea. Oh, I gotcha. Sorry, it's late and I read that out of context No worries! lol 
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:04:19 AM EDT
[#44]
So Putin himself is now threatening to use nukes to take Ukrainian soil.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:10:07 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Squatch: Blew the recuperator. Happened to one of my guns at Ft Lewis when we switched from 109A6 to 198s as part of the transition to the 1st SBCT. We were shooting red bag, and one of our ancient 198s fired, recoiled, and stayed out of battery. Boom. Ka-thunk. The guns were already pushing 20 years old when we drew them out of depot, pullover gauge readings for most of the battalion were indicating pretty good tube erosion, MVVs were all over the place. It was a challenge maintaining first round fire for effect. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Squatch: Originally Posted By Prime: British L119 howitzer damaged due to overuse. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/203719/794B48D6-3552-4E48-92F3-8AA89CA1E4D6-2531728.jpg https://t.me/killpukin/10782 Blew the recuperator. Happened to one of my guns at Ft Lewis when we switched from 109A6 to 198s as part of the transition to the 1st SBCT. We were shooting red bag, and one of our ancient 198s fired, recoiled, and stayed out of battery. Boom. Ka-thunk. The guns were already pushing 20 years old when we drew them out of depot, pullover gauge readings for most of the battalion were indicating pretty good tube erosion, MVVs were all over the place. It was a challenge maintaining first round fire for effect. Thanks for adding your field experience, and thanks for your service, Squatch!  Russian artillery is almost certainly wearing out; likely to the point of failure. But what little accuracy there was from of most of their tubes Is probably long gone, meaning: - I believe their artillery has been reduced to little more than “area denial” weaponry. Compare that with the success of HIMARS. This conflict is illustrating for the world the value of extreme precision. Expect industry changes (along with highly expanded drone use, of course). |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:13:57 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Here's an uncharacteristically coherent and intelligent brief article from the Daily Beast that paints a picture out of the parts: - The Duma bill about prison sentences for troops is a ground work for stemming losses and letting the populace know manpower is needed - The timing is in advance of the forced referendums in the occupied territories in the coming days - The pre-ordained referendum results (leaks of "orders" to vote for Russia have already gotten out) will lay the groundwork for a full or partial mobilization - Following the referendums a short while later, a mobilization announcement of some level will be made. Link: https://www.thedailybeast.com/kremlins-new-hail-mary-shows-putin-is-more-panicked-than-ever?ref=scroll This does neatly tie-up loose pieces and provide a possible analysis. Personally, I am NOT in the "they can't mobilize" camp. They can. Far less unified, capable nations have done so. It's important to keep in mind that from the Kremlin down, they have complete control over society and individual or local-scale acts of opposition are not an option. Compliance and obedience will follow if ordered. A quick comparison is that in Germany in WWII, Nazi "party membership" was only about 6 to 7% of the population in 1939 when they forced the war on to the country. The country as a whole did NOT want war, but had no choice. The key thing was controlling the police, the press, the courts, and being able to bring effective pressure into the workplace. Modern Russia is AT LEAST as effective a totalitarian state as Germany in 1939. The economy will not suffer much at all in any critical way at this point. The damage to the economy is done by blocking trade - the lucrative exports and the crucial imports. That's fixed and the economic potential downside is known to the central planners. It will not suffer any further meaningful trade losses at this point; the downside is factored in. Taking some idled manpower off the streets is very likely a net positive to regime stability for all the obvious reasons. In some ways, mobilization starts to look like a smart and stabilizing move from the Russian leadership perspective at this time. If I were personally on "Team Putin," I think I'd be arguing for it as the best play at the moment. Their industry is basically dead. Their stored gear is shit. They're out of PGMs and running out of artillery. They are already sending fodder straight to the front with minimal training. And their officer corps has been decimated about 3 times over. They can mobilize a bunch of sad alcoholic Slavs, hand them an AK made when their grandpa was still shitting his pants and send them off to make Russia proud. Great plan. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:14:00 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dominion21: Thanks for adding your field experience, and thanks for your service, Squatch! Russian artillery is almost certainly wearing out; likely to the point of failure. But what little accuracy there was from of most of their tubes Is probably long gone, meaning: - I believe their artillery has been reduced to little more than “area denial” weaponry. Compare that with the success of HIMARS. This conflict is illustrating for the world the value of extreme precision. Expect industry changes (along with highly expanded drone use, of course). Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dominion21: Originally Posted By Squatch: Originally Posted By Prime: British L119 howitzer damaged due to overuse. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/203719/794B48D6-3552-4E48-92F3-8AA89CA1E4D6-2531728.jpg https://t.me/killpukin/10782 Blew the recuperator. Happened to one of my guns at Ft Lewis when we switched from 109A6 to 198s as part of the transition to the 1st SBCT. We were shooting red bag, and one of our ancient 198s fired, recoiled, and stayed out of battery. Boom. Ka-thunk. The guns were already pushing 20 years old when we drew them out of depot, pullover gauge readings for most of the battalion were indicating pretty good tube erosion, MVVs were all over the place. It was a challenge maintaining first round fire for effect. Thanks for adding your field experience, and thanks for your service, Squatch! Russian artillery is almost certainly wearing out; likely to the point of failure. But what little accuracy there was from of most of their tubes Is probably long gone, meaning: - I believe their artillery has been reduced to little more than “area denial” weaponry. Compare that with the success of HIMARS. This conflict is illustrating for the world the value of extreme precision. Expect industry changes (along with highly expanded drone use, of course). By its very nature, artillery is an area fire weapon. The adding of precision guidance systems to its projectiles has been in the works since the 70’s but it is expensive. Even the entry level additive kit is still 12k. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:16:52 AM EDT
[#48]
The big thing that Putin buys with mobilization is time. He has put the anti-Putin factions in a bind with this move. He has been in power a long time and obviously has created a very strong alliance that keeps him in power. But there must be those who would like to depose him and go in a different direction.
Even in Russia, popular support would be very helpful to get rid of Putin. The mobilization gives the people a rallying cry that "Finally we are going to stomp Ukraine with our mighty power! Now the world will see what Russia stronk means!". Now, Putin's enemies can't move until this mobilization has been tried and failed. All this does is give Putin some breathing room for staying in power a little longer. That's all any politician wants. It is why their decision making always looks so irrational, after the fact. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:20:37 AM EDT
[#49]
The EU is price fixing energy for businesses and residents starting in October. It will roughly half the potential energy costs that people were expecting and result in small increases in energy costs. According to Sky News.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:32:02 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: Took him 7 months. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: Originally Posted By Zam18th: Even Scholz is on the fuck Russia train. Enough is enough
Took him 7 months. Talk is cheap. |
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