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Posted: 10/27/2021 8:27:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: The_Beer_Slayer]
It says it's been moved, but the link just takes me to the Community page. What gives?


This is now the active "shit (might be) is definitely happening in Ukraine" thread.

News links, thanks to BerettaGuy:
Originally Posted By BerettaGuy:
LINKS TO UKRAINIAN NEWS SOURCES IN ENGLISH

Kyiv Post

Ukrainian News

UKRInform

EUROMAIDEN PRESS

New Voice of Ukraine

Kyiv Independent

Ukraine World

InterFax Ukraine

UATV

Ukrainian Journal

Official Website of the President of Ukraine

Ukrainian Ministry of Defense

Save these links. I can't post all the headlines like I've done in the past - too much news and too often.
View Quote


Please @ me with additional stuff to be added here. I don't currently have time to properly curate this thread otherwise.

New news link c/o berettaguy:

Ukrainian Pravda
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/

Stop fake, anti - disinformation site:
https://www.stopfake.org/en/main/
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 1:57:16 PM EDT
[#1]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History

What the fuck was going on there?  Looked like a bunch of drunks staggering home from the local bar right down the middle of the street.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:00:12 PM EDT
[#2]
The scientist reminds me of Project Mogul, where we put microphones on weather balloons to listen to nuke tests in the 50's
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:05:42 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#3]
This is what had me looking at the Magnetic anomalies stuff last night.

Posted 19 hours ago





Posted 16 hours ago.

Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:06:02 PM EDT
[#4]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


Certainly, it's just a theory where this guy may be onto something that works for osint, but a dedicated defense radar is much better.  He said he cant tell the number of missiles fired unless it's over minutes of time.  If I go by this info, an attack on a base that shows no anomalies would be special ops, subsonic drones, or cruise missiles, but something is moving fast from the Odessa area and causing big explosions deep in Russian held territory.

Those interested can go to my post above, I have added more info and his explanations if your interested.
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By Orion_Shall_Rise:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


It's an interesting idea, the jist of it is that missiles going supersonic in the upper atmosphere do what he says in the tweet below.









Easiest way for me to imagine how it works would be like having multiple lightning detectors spread out over a region that can pinpoint cloud to ground lightning strikes to a specific area.  Except these magnetoacoustic waves are detected and plotted.






Interesting. Poor man's launch detector I suppose. Don't see any applications a functioning defense radar wouldn't do better though. Other then maybe detect stealth missiles.


Certainly, it's just a theory where this guy may be onto something that works for osint, but a dedicated defense radar is much better.  He said he cant tell the number of missiles fired unless it's over minutes of time.  If I go by this info, an attack on a base that shows no anomalies would be special ops, subsonic drones, or cruise missiles, but something is moving fast from the Odessa area and causing big explosions deep in Russian held territory.

Those interested can go to my post above, I have added more info and his explanations if your interested.

Reinvent the War Tuba!

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Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:06:38 PM EDT
[#5]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By lorazepam:
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laughed a bit too hard at this.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:08:51 PM EDT
[#6]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By bikedamon:


And yet every Russian social media account that posts about the war in Ukraine always includes #"We don't leave ours behind."  I've even seen that shit in GD when the actual Russians pop their heads up from time to time.

el-oh-fucking-el
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Originally Posted By bikedamon:
Originally Posted By Swampgrass:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Drone attack injures two Russians, rest just keep on walking.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/wpyt5z/drone_attack_on_russian_infantry_knocks_out_two/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb


That's gotta be demoralizing to know if you get hurt they might just leave you.


And yet every Russian social media account that posts about the war in Ukraine always includes #"We don't leave ours behind."  I've even seen that shit in GD when the actual Russians pop their heads up from time to time.

el-oh-fucking-el

The Ukrainians are still complaining about being overrun with Russian dead in their morgues. It was almost 10k last I saw something.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:11:26 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Dracster] [#7]
"An exhibition of weapons and equipment captured during the special operation opened at the Army-2022 forum.

Among the exhibits you can see the 155-mm American howitzer M777A1 / 2, armored personnel carrier BTR-4E, armored vehicles HMMWV, British armored personnel carrier AT-105 Saxon, ATGM FGM-148 Javelin, NLAW, as well as fragments of rockets and small arms (MP5, M4A1, Uzi etc.)."

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(I have that same flare gun )
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Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:12:45 PM EDT
[#8]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History



He has to be getting tired.  Now tell me this man if he survives won't have PTSD about drones?
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:13:12 PM EDT
[#9]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
This is what had me looking at the Magnetic anomalies stuff last night.

Posted 19 hours ago



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaPGVq_XgAArPru?format=png&name=small

Posted 16 hours ago.

View Quote
This kinda gives a visual of the acoustic waves generated by a rocket launch. Start around 1:45 into the video, it's repeated a few times after.

Sonic Boom Meets Sun Dog 720p

Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:16:53 PM EDT
[#10]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Dracster:
"An exhibition of weapons and equipment captured during the special operation opened at the Army-2022 forum.

Among the exhibits you can see the 155-mm American howitzer M777A1 / 2, armored personnel carrier BTR-4E, armored vehicles HMMWV, British armored personnel carrier AT-105 Saxon, ATGM FGM-148 Javelin, NLAW, as well as fragments of rockets and small arms (MP5, M4A1, Uzi etc.)."

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-45_jpg-2491316.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-46_jpg-2491317.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-49_jpg-2491318.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-50_jpg-2491319.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-51__2__jpg-2491320.JPG

(I have that same flare gun )
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-51_jpg-2491322.JPG
View Quote
I wonder how much of that came from what was left behind in A'stan. Seems like a pretty spiffy display in such a short period of time.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:16:59 PM EDT
[#11]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


lol, you can tell hes seen the videos, figured if he keeps moving and changing directions it will miss.  Serpentine!! Serpentine!!
View Quote


That’s how I looked pumping gas during the DC Beltway sniper events.  
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:20:40 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#12]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By CS223:
This kinda gives a visual of the acoustic waves generated by a rocket launch. Start around 1:45 into the video, it's repeated a few times after.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SsDEfu8s1Lw
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By CS223:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
This is what had me looking at the Magnetic anomalies stuff last night.

Posted 19 hours ago



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaPGVq_XgAArPru?format=png&name=small

Posted 16 hours ago.

This kinda gives a visual of the acoustic waves generated by a rocket launch. Start around 1:45 into the video, it's repeated a few times after.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SsDEfu8s1Lw



Very interesting, thanks for this.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:21:20 PM EDT
[#13]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Dracster:
"An exhibition of weapons and equipment captured during the special operation opened at the Army-2022 forum.

View Quote


Could you imagine this war, if they put that level of effort and organization into other things? Like, say, training or logistics?
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:23:22 PM EDT
[#14]
"British instructors train servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Southeast England.

According to reports, Sweden, Denmark, Canada, the Netherlands and Finland are gathering to send their instructors to the UK for training in the Armed Forces."

(I wonder if England is going to donate a bunch of SA80-types...)

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Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:23:30 PM EDT
[#15]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By CS223:
I wonder how much of that came from what was left behind in A'stan. Seems like a pretty spiffy display in such a short period of time.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By CS223:
Originally Posted By Dracster:
"An exhibition of weapons and equipment captured during the special operation opened at the Army-2022 forum.

Among the exhibits you can see the 155-mm American howitzer M777A1 / 2, armored personnel carrier BTR-4E, armored vehicles HMMWV, British armored personnel carrier AT-105 Saxon, ATGM FGM-148 Javelin, NLAW, as well as fragments of rockets and small arms (MP5, M4A1, Uzi etc.)."

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-45_jpg-2491316.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-46_jpg-2491317.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-49_jpg-2491318.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-50_jpg-2491319.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-51__2__jpg-2491320.JPG

(I have that same flare gun )
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-51_jpg-2491322.JPG
I wonder how much of that came from what was left behind in A'stan. Seems like a pretty spiffy display in such a short period of time.


I can't wait to see the Ukrainian museum
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:27:11 PM EDT
[#16]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Capta:

What the fuck was going on there?  Looked like a bunch of drunks staggering home from the local bar right down the middle of the street.
View Quote

Weird. Like some dudes that just said "fuck this we are walking home". They sure got clobbered though.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:28:23 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Haub] [#17]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Dracster:
"An exhibition of weapons and equipment captured during the special operation opened at the Army-2022 forum.

Among the exhibits you can see the 155-mm American howitzer M777A1 / 2, armored personnel carrier BTR-4E, armored vehicles HMMWV, British armored personnel carrier AT-105 Saxon, ATGM FGM-148 Javelin, NLAW, as well as fragments of rockets and small arms (MP5, M4A1, Uzi etc.)."

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-45_jpg-2491316.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-46_jpg-2491317.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-49_jpg-2491318.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-50_jpg-2491319.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_09-52-23_jpg-2491341.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-51__2__jpg-2491320.JPG

(I have that same flare gun )
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-51_jpg-2491322.JPG
View Quote


Disappointed in the lack of captured pallets and logistics equipment like pallet jacks.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:28:35 PM EDT
[#18]
"Ukrainian soldiers with Austrian Steyr AUG A1 assault rifles and modernized Czechoslovak Sa vz. 58."


(Is that Flecktarn?)
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Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:29:32 PM EDT
[#19]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Dracster:
"An exhibition of weapons and equipment captured during the special operation opened at the Army-2022 forum.

Among the exhibits you can see the 155-mm American howitzer M777A1 / 2, armored personnel carrier BTR-4E, armored vehicles HMMWV, British armored personnel carrier AT-105 Saxon, ATGM FGM-148 Javelin, NLAW, as well as fragments of rockets and small arms (MP5, M4A1, Uzi etc.)."

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-45_jpg-2491316.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-46_jpg-2491317.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-49_jpg-2491318.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-50_jpg-2491319.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_09-52-23_jpg-2491341.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-51__2__jpg-2491320.JPG

(I have that same flare gun )
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-51_jpg-2491322.JPG
View Quote

What's going on with that mp5?
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:32:07 PM EDT
[#20]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Dracster:
"An exhibition of weapons and equipment captured during the special operation opened at the Army-2022 forum.

Among the exhibits you can see the 155-mm American howitzer M777A1 / 2, armored personnel carrier BTR-4E, armored vehicles HMMWV, British armored personnel carrier AT-105 Saxon, ATGM FGM-148 Javelin, NLAW, as well as fragments of rockets and small arms (MP5, M4A1, Uzi etc.)."

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-45_jpg-2491316.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-46_jpg-2491317.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-49_jpg-2491318.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-50_jpg-2491319.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_09-52-23_jpg-2491341.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-51__2__jpg-2491320.JPG

(I have that same flare gun )
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-51_jpg-2491322.JPG
View Quote

I'm very disappointed they couldnt combine this display with some WWII display. Include a bunch of nazi flags and dummies with MP40's...
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:43:42 PM EDT
[#21]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By CPT_CAVEMAN:

What's going on with that mp5?
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By CPT_CAVEMAN:
Originally Posted By Dracster:
"An exhibition of weapons and equipment captured during the special operation opened at the Army-2022 forum.

Among the exhibits you can see the 155-mm American howitzer M777A1 / 2, armored personnel carrier BTR-4E, armored vehicles HMMWV, British armored personnel carrier AT-105 Saxon, ATGM FGM-148 Javelin, NLAW, as well as fragments of rockets and small arms (MP5, M4A1, Uzi etc.)."

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-45_jpg-2491316.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-46_jpg-2491317.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-49_jpg-2491318.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-50_jpg-2491319.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_09-52-23_jpg-2491341.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-51__2__jpg-2491320.JPG

(I have that same flare gun )
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-16_10-26-51_jpg-2491322.JPG

What's going on with that mp5?

You're probably seeing it mixed with the AR behind it.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:47:08 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Jack67] [#22]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Illegible_Signature:


Well, we don't have a lot of supersonic airliners at this point...
View Quote


I was thinking it was emanating from the vehicle itself.  Cardaro never explicitly said it was the reflection, which I get now.  I was thinking too linearly and not hard enough.

So in an analogy, he’s perfected a way to quantify the swamp gas from a weather ballon trapped in a thermal pocket when it reflects the light from Venus.  Cool. ;)

So obviously, there are better mil detection techniques, but this is a nice OS tool.

Bellingcat or someone should see if they have historical data available. Then they could pin point the launch points of the ballistic missiles Russia used on civilians in the Grozny attack in 1999.  Putin claimed it was “gang activity” or something - you know, mutual combat and all, no big deal.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grozny_ballistic_missile_attack#Responsibility_for_the_attack_and_the_question_of_its_legality
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:51:40 PM EDT
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By slanted:


That’s how I looked pumping gas during the DC Beltway sniper events.  
View Quote


Same here. I no longer felt protected by my 10mm carry gun. Stick the gas nozzle in the car and get the hell inside the gas station with everybody else.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:54:25 PM EDT
[#24]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Capta:

What the fuck was going on there?  Looked like a bunch of drunks staggering home from the local bar right down the middle of the street.
View Quote


Wow. They got hit hard.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 2:54:54 PM EDT
[#25]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
I've been watching this scientist's twitter for a few weeks now, and he's got his program calibrated to the point he's able to pinpoint ammo dump explosions and missiles using magnetic anomaly detectors in the area.  This is the second time since the airbase in Crimea exploded last week he saw a launch from Odessa area of a mach 5 missile signature.



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaSiCpPWAAAkTMm?format=png&name=small
View Quote



The only difficulty with this data is:

- it is less psychologically damaging to the Russians to believe these attacks are the result of Ukrainian missiles, as opposed to special operations teams.

The Russian paranoia can be heightened by tricking them into believing every Russian is a target of clandestine teams.  THAT is why I have been arguing sabotage in Crimea (not because I actually believe it).  

Demoralize the Russians.  Get them to give up hope.  Let them know they need to kill their unit commander and surrender, or face certain death.  That should be our goal.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 3:07:13 PM EDT
[#26]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 4xGM300m:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OW97iWx2zHg

I would pay to watch this.

Sadly it will never happen.
View Quote


IIRC they got shot up pretty bad trying to do that to a runway in the first Gulf War, it made them rethink that mission.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 3:07:47 PM EDT
[#27]
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 3:10:49 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#28]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Dominion21:



The only difficulty with this data is:

- it is less psychologically damaging to the Russians to believe these attacks are the result of Ukrainian missiles, as opposed to special operations teams.

The Russian paranoia can be heightened by tricking them into believing every Russian is a target of clandestine teams.  THAT is why I have been arguing sabotage in Crimea (not because I actually believe it).  

Demoralize the Russians.  Get them to give up hope.  Let them know they need to kill their unit commander and surrender, or face certain death.  That should be our goal.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Dominion21:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
I've been watching this scientist's twitter for a few weeks now, and he's got his program calibrated to the point he's able to pinpoint ammo dump explosions and missiles using magnetic anomaly detectors in the area.  This is the second time since the airbase in Crimea exploded last week he saw a launch from Odessa area of a mach 5 missile signature.



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaSiCpPWAAAkTMm?format=png&name=small



The only difficulty with this data is:

- it is less psychologically damaging to the Russians to believe these attacks are the result of Ukrainian missiles, as opposed to special operations teams.

The Russian paranoia can be heightened by tricking them into believing every Russian is a target of clandestine teams.  THAT is why I have been arguing sabotage in Crimea (not because I actually believe it).  

Demoralize the Russians.  Get them to give up hope.  Let them know they need to kill their unit commander and surrender, or face certain death.  That should be our goal.



On one hand I agree, in fact the Russians today claim they are finding these supposed units doing the attacks, so they are possibly on a witch hunt arresting innocent people.  I'm fine with them being fearful of a new missile system that they have no defense against either.  

In all honesty, both can be happening at the same time.

Link Posted: 8/16/2022 3:10:59 PM EDT
[#29]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:





View Quote


When I was a kid long ago the teachers had hand outs and movies about the danger of blasting caps. Showing us what they looked like and not to touch. The early 70s were not much different than the 1890s in rural US.

My point is look at what they are going to need to teach the kids over there about ux ordinance.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 3:13:41 PM EDT
[#30]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Banditman:


When I was a kid long ago the teachers had hand outs and movies about the danger of blasting caps. Showing us what they looked like and not to touch. The early 70s were not much different than the 1890s in rural US.

My point is look at what they are going to need to teach the kids over there about ux ordinance.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Banditman:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:







When I was a kid long ago the teachers had hand outs and movies about the danger of blasting caps. Showing us what they looked like and not to touch. The early 70s were not much different than the 1890s in rural US.

My point is look at what they are going to need to teach the kids over there about ux ordinance.



I know, people are going to be maimed and killed for years because of this.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 3:20:50 PM EDT
[#31]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



On one hand I agree, in fact the Russians today claim they are finding these supposed units doing the attacks, so they are possibly on a witch hunt arresting innocent people.  I'm fine with them being fearful of a new missile system that they have no defense against either.  

In all honesty, both can be happening at the same time.

View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By Dominion21:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
I've been watching this scientist's twitter for a few weeks now, and he's got his program calibrated to the point he's able to pinpoint ammo dump explosions and missiles using magnetic anomaly detectors in the area.  This is the second time since the airbase in Crimea exploded last week he saw a launch from Odessa area of a mach 5 missile signature.



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaSiCpPWAAAkTMm?format=png&name=small



The only difficulty with this data is:

- it is less psychologically damaging to the Russians to believe these attacks are the result of Ukrainian missiles, as opposed to special operations teams.

The Russian paranoia can be heightened by tricking them into believing every Russian is a target of clandestine teams.  THAT is why I have been arguing sabotage in Crimea (not because I actually believe it).  

Demoralize the Russians.  Get them to give up hope.  Let them know they need to kill their unit commander and surrender, or face certain death.  That should be our goal.



On one hand I agree, in fact the Russians today claim they are finding these supposed units doing the attacks, so they are possibly on a witch hunt arresting innocent people.  I'm fine with them being fearful of a new missile system that they have no defense against either.  

In all honesty, both can be happening at the same time.






In true GD fashion, “get both.”

To any Orcs out there:  you are sooooo foooked!  

When the Ukrainians come for you (and they soon will), shoot your commanding officer in the back, and surrender.  It is your only hope for survival.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 3:21:57 PM EDT
[#32]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



I know, people are going to be maimed and killed for years because of this.
View Quote



It was in the 60's for me. We learned ALL about blasting caps, handouts good photo's and even movies. We were REALLY blasting capped.  I never actually saw one as a kid. My dad said that when he was a kid, they used to play with them all the time. He said you could go out to the mines and the shacks out there had them aplenty.  Of course a lot of guys from his era were missing fingers, or most of the hand, or eye.  He said he was lucky.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 3:24:24 PM EDT
[#33]
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Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99:
I think the easiest explanation is we gave them ATACMS and didn't make it public (and said Crimea is Ukraine), followed by Hrim-2.
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Nope. All missiles leave behind identifiable remnants which the Russians would be quick to point out to prove we were lying. Sure, the Russians lie all the time but if they claim ATACMS, and we lie and say we didn’t supply them, eventually they will prove we are lying.

Only lie about stuff you know your enemy cannot refute.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 3:26:26 PM EDT
[#34]
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Originally Posted By CS223:
I wonder how much of that came from what was left behind in A'stan. Seems like a pretty spiffy display in such a short period of time.
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The war is going on for months.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 3:39:19 PM EDT
[#35]
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Originally Posted By Wreckshooter:


Nope. All missiles leave behind identifiable remnants which the Russians would be quick to point out to prove we were lying. Sure, the Russians lie all the time but if they claim ATACMS, and we lie and say we didn’t supply them, eventually they will prove we are lying.

Only lie about stuff you know your enemy cannot refute.
View Quote

good point.
But what if the US isn't the ones who supplied the Atacms?Is it possible they got them from another country?
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 3:59:29 PM EDT
[#36]
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Originally Posted By Bama_Rebel:
good point.
But what if the US isn't the ones who supplied the Atacms?Is it possible they got them from another country?
View Quote

To the Russians, that would be a distinction without a difference, even if true. They're basically going to blame everything they can on NATO, for reasons of pride and propaganda.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 4:05:51 PM EDT
[#37]
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Originally Posted By Wreckshooter:


Nope. All missiles leave behind identifiable remnants which the Russians would be quick to point out to prove we were lying. Sure, the Russians lie all the time but if they claim ATACMS, and we lie and say we didn't supply them, eventually they will prove we are lying.

Only lie about stuff you know your enemy cannot refute.
View Quote
The flip side is, if they point out the remnants, then they are admitting their AD sucks. I think the US is content letting Russia choose between: we sabotaged ourselves, SOF sabotaged us, or our AD is worthless and UA has ordinance that can reach all of Crimea.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 4:06:33 PM EDT
[#38]
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Originally Posted By Dominion21:





In true GD fashion, “get both.”

To any Orcs out there:  you are sooooo foooked!  

When the Ukrainians come for you (and they soon will), shoot your commanding officer in the back, and surrender.  It is your only hope for survival.
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Originally Posted By Dominion21:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By Dominion21:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
I've been watching this scientist's twitter for a few weeks now, and he's got his program calibrated to the point he's able to pinpoint ammo dump explosions and missiles using magnetic anomaly detectors in the area.  This is the second time since the airbase in Crimea exploded last week he saw a launch from Odessa area of a mach 5 missile signature.



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaSiCpPWAAAkTMm?format=png&name=small



The only difficulty with this data is:

- it is less psychologically damaging to the Russians to believe these attacks are the result of Ukrainian missiles, as opposed to special operations teams.

The Russian paranoia can be heightened by tricking them into believing every Russian is a target of clandestine teams.  THAT is why I have been arguing sabotage in Crimea (not because I actually believe it).  

Demoralize the Russians.  Get them to give up hope.  Let them know they need to kill their unit commander and surrender, or face certain death.  That should be our goal.



On one hand I agree, in fact the Russians today claim they are finding these supposed units doing the attacks, so they are possibly on a witch hunt arresting innocent people.  I'm fine with them being fearful of a new missile system that they have no defense against either.  

In all honesty, both can be happening at the same time.






In true GD fashion, “get both.”

To any Orcs out there:  you are sooooo foooked!  

When the Ukrainians come for you (and they soon will), shoot your commanding officer in the back, and surrender.  It is your only hope for survival.



Amen to that.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 4:09:17 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#39]
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Originally Posted By Bama_Rebel:

good point.
But what if the US isn't the ones who supplied the Atacms?Is it possible they got them from another country?
View Quote View All Quotes
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Originally Posted By Bama_Rebel:
Originally Posted By Wreckshooter:


Nope. All missiles leave behind identifiable remnants which the Russians would be quick to point out to prove we were lying. Sure, the Russians lie all the time but if they claim ATACMS, and we lie and say we didn’t supply them, eventually they will prove we are lying.

Only lie about stuff you know your enemy cannot refute.

good point.
But what if the US isn't the ones who supplied the Atacms?Is it possible they got them from another country?


Romanian ATACMS would be one of my suspicions, but as mentioned above, they leave telltale signs of who made them and when, contract numbers etc., which lead back to us making them for our allies.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 4:11:16 PM EDT
[#40]
I think the only way Romania is giving up something that important is if the replacement was in hand.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 4:21:16 PM EDT
[#41]
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Originally Posted By Bama_Rebel:

good point.
But what if the US isn't the ones who supplied the Atacms?Is it possible they got them from another country?
View Quote View All Quotes
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Originally Posted By Bama_Rebel:
Originally Posted By Wreckshooter:


Nope. All missiles leave behind identifiable remnants which the Russians would be quick to point out to prove we were lying. Sure, the Russians lie all the time but if they claim ATACMS, and we lie and say we didn’t supply them, eventually they will prove we are lying.

Only lie about stuff you know your enemy cannot refute.

good point.
But what if the US isn't the ones who supplied the Atacms?Is it possible they got them from another country?


With our end user agreements; countries can’t transfer them w/o our permission. It’s like the Israeli Spike missiles that they would not allow to be transferred to Ukraine.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 4:22:47 PM EDT
[#42]
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:
I think the only way Romania is giving up something that important is if the replacement was in hand.
View Quote


That too.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 4:25:27 PM EDT
[#43]









Link Posted: 8/16/2022 4:25:30 PM EDT
[#44]
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Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99:
The flip side is, if they point out the remnants, then they are admitting their AD sucks. I think the US is content letting Russia choose between: we sabotaged ourselves, SOF sabotaged us, or our AD is worthless and UA has ordinance that can reach all of Crimea.
View Quote



This. Heads you lose, tails UA wins.

They're really gonna get fucked domestically if Crimea keeps getting hit at will and people start asking questions.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 4:33:40 PM EDT
[#45]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaRxgqLUEAAdyWg?format=jpg&name=large


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaRxgqLUUAAZz3q?format=jpg&name=large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaRxgqLUUAEQzET?format=jpg&name=large

View Quote


The dates on the pictures indicate they're a little "old" and not from this morning...?
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 4:34:35 PM EDT
[#46]
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Originally Posted By burnka871:



This. Heads you lose, tails UA wins.

They're really gonna get fucked domestically if Crimea keeps getting hit at will and people start asking questions.
View Quote


You should read some RU propaganda, I don't know what these guys are taking, but it's some strong stuff.

Dozens of HIMARS destroyed, hundreds of missiles intercepted, 45000! tons of Western supplies destroyed - and that's only from the last week.

Link Posted: 8/16/2022 4:53:05 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Jack67] [#47]
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Originally Posted By Illegible_Signature:


The dates on the pictures indicate they're a little "old" and not from this morning...?
View Quote


Yes, just a site pic, not claiming it’s totally fresh.

Wonder if any of those are the Gauss S300 version? You can get a 5% discount if you buy more than a battery, and 10% for a battalion or more.

https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/inflatable-missile-decoy-inflatable-anti-aircraft_60572557236.html

Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 5:07:22 PM EDT
[#48]
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Originally Posted By Eat_Beef:



The fire map shows active fires, not artillery strikes.  Yes, arty can cause a fire, but it's not a direct correlation.

I haven't seen anything that supports more outgoing UA arty than incoming, not that I've seen everything.  I'd be glad to see it, but I don't think it's reality.
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Originally Posted By Eat_Beef:
Originally Posted By Dominion21:




The “hot spots” or fires maps posted daily in this thread have reversed themselves in the south.  Most of the strikes today are on the Russian side of the frontline in the south.




The fire map shows active fires, not artillery strikes.  Yes, arty can cause a fire, but it's not a direct correlation.

I haven't seen anything that supports more outgoing UA arty than incoming, not that I've seen everything.  I'd be glad to see it, but I don't think it's reality.


It's almost a 1-to-1 correlation, particularly since the FIRMS data requires both a certain size, time and temperature to register on the map. That's why it's being used as a surrogate for showing artillery strikes and the fires they cause. The data seems to be showing that Ukraine's strategy of clobbering ammo depots and C2 HQs with long range strikes appears to be taking the wind out of the Russian sails.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 5:09:54 PM EDT
[#49]
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Originally Posted By burnka871:



This. Heads you lose, tails UA wins.

They're really gonna get fucked domestically if Crimea keeps getting hit at will and people start asking questions.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Originally Posted By burnka871:
Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99:
The flip side is, if they point out the remnants, then they are admitting their AD sucks. I think the US is content letting Russia choose between: we sabotaged ourselves, SOF sabotaged us, or our AD is worthless and UA has ordinance that can reach all of Crimea.



This. Heads you lose, tails UA wins.

They're really gonna get fucked domestically if Crimea keeps getting hit at will and people start asking questions.
I should also add, if Russia says "you lied!!!", America's response will be "ok, so what". Same situation as the HARMS I believe.

I was really surprised RF didn't retaliate by hitting civilian targets, but looks like Kharkiv may have gotten retaliation strikes.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 5:13:21 PM EDT
[#50]
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Originally Posted By Illegible_Signature:


The dates on the pictures indicate they're a little "old" and not from this morning...?
View Quote View All Quotes
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Originally Posted By Illegible_Signature:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaRxgqLUEAAdyWg?format=jpg&name=large


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaRxgqLUUAAZz3q?format=jpg&name=large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaRxgqLUUAEQzET?format=jpg&name=large



The dates on the pictures indicate they're a little "old" and not from this morning...?



Not sure about that part, noticed it too, you can click on the 1985 and see the airbase from an image at that time.  but I think the tweet posted them for reference if we get after photos, there should be air defenses for the airfield.  In 1985 S-400's weren't in service.
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