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Posted: 10/27/2021 8:27:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: The_Beer_Slayer]
It says it's been moved, but the link just takes me to the Community page. What gives?


This is now the active "shit (might be) is definitely happening in Ukraine" thread.

News links, thanks to BerettaGuy:
Originally Posted By BerettaGuy:
LINKS TO UKRAINIAN NEWS SOURCES IN ENGLISH

Kyiv Post

Ukrainian News

UKRInform

EUROMAIDEN PRESS

New Voice of Ukraine

Kyiv Independent

Ukraine World

InterFax Ukraine

UATV

Ukrainian Journal

Official Website of the President of Ukraine

Ukrainian Ministry of Defense

Save these links. I can't post all the headlines like I've done in the past - too much news and too often.
View Quote


Please @ me with additional stuff to be added here. I don't currently have time to properly curate this thread otherwise.

New news link c/o berettaguy:

Ukrainian Pravda
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/

Stop fake, anti - disinformation site:
https://www.stopfake.org/en/main/
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 12:13:23 PM EDT
[#1]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By bigstick61:


How will they do that?  Under the Montreaux Convention, I don't believe foreign navies can enter to become involved.  Turkey has closed off the straits to naval traffic, I believe.  Maybe I'm remembering incorrectly, but I do believe that it'd be an issue.
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That is entirely up to Turkey to decide, and they can just as easily declare that only belligerent nations (i.e. Russia and Ukraine) are excluded. The Turks made a political decision in February to block the straits to all warships, which was an attempt by them (as usual) to play both sides of the game.
In some months time, with the war possibly going badly for Russia, and a UN finding that the Russian blockade was genocidal and illegal, Turkey may find that decision no longer politically expedient.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 12:38:43 PM EDT
[#2]
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Originally Posted By M-1975:


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Ukraine has claimed two other general-lieutenants KIA previously, although apparently without confirmation from Russia.

Also remember that in the RA structure, "major general" is a one-star, equivalent to a western brigadier, and apparently fulfilling a role which in the west would be held performed by a LTC.

RA "lieutenant general" is a two star, "colonel general" is a three star and "army general" is a four star.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 12:41:43 PM EDT
[#3]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By bigstick61:


How will they do that?  Under the Montreaux Convention, I don't believe foreign navies can enter to become involved.  Turkey has closed off the straits to naval traffic, I believe.  Maybe I'm remembering incorrectly, but I do believe that it'd be an issue.
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Originally Posted By bigstick61:
Originally Posted By Capta:

Don’t be so sure of that.
The impending world grain shortage will ultimately force action by the west.  There have been recent articles about western nations de-mining Odessa so shipments could resume.  This is basically preparing the western public for moves to break the blockade.  At some point (within months) you will see a UN vote that Russia’s blockade constitutes genocide against non-combatants elsewhere in the world, and is therefore illegal.  Then the US and/or another naval power will announce that they will escort ships to and from Odessa for humanitarian purposes, and that will be game over.


How will they do that?  Under the Montreaux Convention, I don't believe foreign navies can enter to become involved.  Turkey has closed off the straits to naval traffic, I believe.  Maybe I'm remembering incorrectly, but I do believe that it'd be an issue.


My guess would be that if the UN does that, it would give Turkey "cover" to allow warships to transit since they would be on a humanitarian mission for the UN, not a military mission for whatever navy is transiting.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 12:43:09 PM EDT
[#4]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Star_Scream:



There's a way to find out.

Feed more targeting info to Ukraine, stack bodies and wait for results
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The results are positive either way.

After the war is over the Ukranians need to build at least one memorial to the russian soldiers who fought bravely regardless of the reason. I'm thinking of a sculpture of dead russian soldiers randomly lying on the ground abandoned by the russian military.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 12:45:55 PM EDT
[#5]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By dorobuta:


Your buddy Joe wanted Ukraine to fold on day one. Zelensky said he didn’t need a ride, he needed bullets. The rest of the world jumped in and your buddy had to scramble to provide aid. It wasn’t pre-positioned proactively. Joe wanted Putin to take Ukraine. He merely gave lip service to warning about the invasion. His family makes a lot of money from Russia and China

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I agree 100%. But Joe doesnt care who operates the corrupt NGO's and BOD's in Ukraine as long as they uphold the deal....10% for the big guy.

I also think in the end someone convinced the Biden Crime Family/Congress et al that they could get much more $$ by funneling 10% off the cleaning, rebuilding, de-mining, etc US Aid sent to Ukraine then they ever could from corrupt gas and oil companies.

I'm just glad that DC corruption happened to intersect with what is best for Ukraine.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 12:48:29 PM EDT
[#6]
Scroll down the thread for the visual proof:

Link Posted: 6/5/2022 12:49:05 PM EDT
[#7]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By stone-age:


The results are positive either way.

After the war is over the Ukranians need to build at least one memorial to the russian soldiers who fought bravely regardless of the reason. I'm thinking of a sculpture of dead russian soldiers randomly lying on the ground abandoned by the russian military.
View Quote


So....like the one that are still lying there, except in bronze?



Link Posted: 6/5/2022 12:49:16 PM EDT
[#8]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Capta:

Don’t be so sure of that.
The impending world grain shortage will ultimately force action by the west.  There have been recent articles about western nations de-mining Odessa so shipments could resume.  This is basically preparing the western public for moves to break the blockade.  At some point (within months) you will see a UN vote that Russia’s blockade constitutes genocide against non-combatants elsewhere in the world, and is therefore illegal.  Then the US and/or another naval power will announce that they will escort ships to and from Odessa for humanitarian purposes, and that will be game over.
View Quote


The british are making noise that they will send warships to protect shipping.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 12:49:59 PM EDT
[Last Edit: SoCalExile] [#9]


Link translated (Google remix):

"KOMKOR ROMAN KUTUZOV - THE FOURTH RUSSIAN GENERAL TO DIE IN BATTLE.
We are talking about our generals' losses in the Donbass. Too bad he was a good person. A native of the Airborne Forces. We started to be friends when he was the commander of the regiment.
On the one hand, the general again led people to attack. As if there are not enough colonels (majors, captains, sergeants ...). On the other hand, Roman was the same commander as everyone else, albeit a higher rank.
Now tell me, what is there in Ukraine? APU retreat, so what? They are trying to pass a law allowing Ukrainian commanders to shoot subordinates who do not go into battle. And our general gets up and, by his own example, leads the soldiers into the attack.
So which idea is stronger? On which side is the truth? Ours, since our generals fly on attack aircraft themselves, and go on the attack, and die like soldiers. I do not remember such examples in Ukraine.
Rom, the Kingdom of heaven to you. You left like a soldier, like a warrior. This is not given to everyone."




Link Posted: 6/5/2022 12:50:45 PM EDT
[#10]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Capta:

Don’t be so sure of that.
The impending world grain shortage will ultimately force action by the west.  There have been recent articles about western nations de-mining Odessa so shipments could resume.  This is basically preparing the western public for moves to break the blockade.  At some point (within months) you will see a UN vote that Russia’s blockade constitutes genocide against non-combatants elsewhere in the world, and is therefore illegal.  Then the US and/or another naval power will announce that they will escort ships to and from Odessa for humanitarian purposes, and that will be game over.
View Quote

Will Russia vote to condemn Russia's blockade? Security Counsil member...
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 12:51:24 PM EDT
[#11]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By bigstick61:


How will they do that?  Under the Montreaux Convention, I don't believe foreign navies can enter to become involved.  Turkey has closed off the straits to naval traffic, I believe.  Maybe I'm remembering incorrectly, but I do believe that it'd be an issue.
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I don't doubt that. But when people get desperate and behind action, powerful countries start making up new rules.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 12:52:00 PM EDT
[#12]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By M-1975:
Scroll down the thread for the visual proof:

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Goodnight orc.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 12:56:39 PM EDT
[#13]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By stone-age:


The british are making noise that they will send warships to protect shipping.
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You say that like it's a bad thing..
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 1:12:30 PM EDT
[#14]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

I’m not a fudd that thinks the M14 was the greatest battle implement ever devised and I would definitely pick a good AR over the M14 in the vast majority of circumstances.  But for fighting in open country, and the alternative being an AK?  Hell yeah I’d take an M14 and be happy to have it.
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Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly:


I guess those M14s from a few pages back the Ukrainians are fielding aren't so obsolete after all; the M14 is downright state-of-the-art compared to what the Donetsk bubbas are carrying.  A US infantry platoon from WWII seems better equipped than the folks the Orcs are pushing to the front.

I’m not a fudd that thinks the M14 was the greatest battle implement ever devised and I would definitely pick a good AR over the M14 in the vast majority of circumstances.  But for fighting in open country, and the alternative being an AK?  Hell yeah I’d take an M14 and be happy to have it.


Agree:  This is literally the type of fight the M14 was designed for (or, at least, met it's design criteria, it sucks as a carbine/submachine gun/BAR replacement), a place where the relatively flat bullet trajectory, decent accuracy, and 500-600m effective range can be decisive.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 1:18:48 PM EDT
[#15]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 4xGM300m:
https://i.imgur.com/hHB7k6N.jpg

T-62s with cages on the turrets, allegedly near Kherson.

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they aren't cages, they're cargo racks.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 1:27:59 PM EDT
[#16]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By ricko1:
My uneducated opinion.....  It seems if Russia is determined to take Severodonetsk back Ukraine should put up a token resistance while dropping back to high ground west of the city. Then blast the hell out of the Russians that move into the city and force them to retreat again. Just keep doing that over and over.
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Originally Posted By ricko1:
Originally Posted By bigstick61:
Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast:
I think Sievierodonetsk might turn into a disaster for the Russians. I doubt the Ukrainians are as concerned with holding the city as the Russians are with taking it. I think the Ukrainians might use this as a chance just to kill a lot of Russians and render as many Russian units combat ineffective as possible.


That seems to be what some analysts are thinking, that Ukraine has determined not to dump men and resources into a grinder in the city to try and keep it, given that Russia has focused almost all of its offensive power on that one, small place, but to ultimately execute a gradual strategic withdrawal while inflicting as many casualties in men and equipment as possible on Russian and separatist forces.  Instead, they will utilize resources on other fronts to exploit Russian weaknesses created by transferring so much combat power to Severodonetsk and engage in some counteroffensives, like what they have been doing on the southern front.  They want to avoid the same mistake as Russia in dumping a ton of men into one place and into a meat grinder just for a small piece of land.

What's amazing to me is that Russia has to basically focus to that degree just to make such incrementally small gains.  I think it reveals a lot about how diminished their combat power has become (and it's also part of why I think Ukrainian casualty estimates for the Russians are not very exaggerated).

ETA: Sounds like the Ukrainians are doing even better than expected.  If they can push the Russians back with what they have committed to the battle, it would be senseless not to do so.  It is an even worse look for the Russians if they are now getting pushed back despite how heavily they have concentrated their forces here.
My uneducated opinion.....  It seems if Russia is determined to take Severodonetsk back Ukraine should put up a token resistance while dropping back to high ground west of the city. Then blast the hell out of the Russians that move into the city and force them to retreat again. Just keep doing that over and over.


That appears to be exactly what they are doing…..just waiting to see if the orcs bite and cycle 2 begins.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 1:48:52 PM EDT
[#17]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By iggy1337:


Almost the complete opposite to other Iraq and Afg.

Ukriane Is doing the fighting. Men stay and fight women and children can get to safety as refugees

Shitholes: America doing the fighting. Refugees we got were millitary aged males.

View Quote


This is why whenever people say "bUt WhAt AbOuT tHuh PoOr pOoR SyRiAnS, ArEn'T wE aLl ThUh SaME?"

My reaction is to point out the exact difference you describe, which we can clearly observe.

So no, they aren't the fucking same, and the Syrians can sort their own shit out, like the Ukrainians are doing.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 1:50:26 PM EDT
[#18]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By weptek911:


I’m not an expert but it seems to me the M14 was designed for the wide open spaces of Yurp, it got replaced because it was outclassed in jungle warfare by the AK47, The M14 is sure a lot better than a Mosin-Nagant!
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Originally Posted By weptek911:
Originally Posted By Capta:

I’m not a fudd that thinks the M14 was the greatest battle implement ever devised and I would definitely pick a good AR over the M14 in the vast majority of circumstances.  But for fighting in open country, and the alternative being an AK?  Hell yeah I’d take an M14 and be happy to have it.


I’m not an expert but it seems to me the M14 was designed for the wide open spaces of Yurp, it got replaced because it was outclassed in jungle warfare by the AK47, The M14 is sure a lot better than a Mosin-Nagant!


The M-14 is heavy AF, totally uncontrollable in full auto, and expensive and difficult to manufacture. Wonderful rifle if you don’t have to hump it and a load of ammo miles and miles though, quite accurate in semi. My Boat still had them in the late ‘80s, loved to shoot them in quals.

Link Posted: 6/5/2022 1:51:26 PM EDT
[#19]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AgeOne:


they aren't cages, they're cargo racks.
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That rig will carry a lot of appliances.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 1:56:33 PM EDT
[#20]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By weptek911:


Mothereffing THIS! Why is this so hard for others to figure out? All Ukraine is asking for is equipment to make it a fair fight. A weakened Russia takes a malevolent player off the chessboard.
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Originally Posted By weptek911:
Originally Posted By iggy1337:
Originally Posted By Abakan:
Originally Posted By Star_Scream:
Originally Posted By AaronR:


which price are taxpayers paying for the freebies? full export, or pentagon discount?



How much value are the tax payers getting from a strategic and economic rival getting wrecked with no uniformed service members getting killed?


If this costs us a trillion dollars but kicks the russians in the curb as a fighting force I am all for it. Makes it easier to concentrate on the one enemy that counts: CHINA

I say stomp the russians into pulp. The fact that Ukraine is doing it for us is a huge bonus.


Almost the complete opposite to other Iraq and Afg.

Ukriane Is doing the fighting. Men stay and fight women and children can get to safety as refugees

Shitholes: America doing the fighting. Refugees we got were millitary aged males.





Mothereffing THIS! Why is this so hard for others to figure out? All Ukraine is asking for is equipment to make it a fair fight. A weakened Russia takes a malevolent player off the chessboard.


I think Ukraine has the potential to be a long term success like South Korea….all we have to do is give them what they need and prevent the assclowns in Foggy Bottom from meddling and fucking everything up.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 1:57:37 PM EDT
[Last Edit: SoCalExile] [#21]
Russia lost an aircraft near Orikhov...

Link Posted: 6/5/2022 1:58:57 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Erno86] [#22]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:
Spain to donate Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine.
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That's equipped with the 120 mm smoothbore cannon barrel...
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 2:02:34 PM EDT
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Erno86:


That's equipped with the 120 mm smoothbore cannon barrel...
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Yeah, it’s a major step up.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 2:06:14 PM EDT
[#24]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By M-1975:
Russia lost an aircraft near Orikhov...

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Shit, that wasn't a small one either.


Come on SU-57 or 34 or 35
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 2:06:27 PM EDT
[#25]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Tiberius:


That appears to be exactly what they are doing…..just waiting to see if the orcs bite and cycle 2 begins.
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Originally Posted By Tiberius:
Originally Posted By ricko1:
Originally Posted By bigstick61:
Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast:
I think Sievierodonetsk might turn into a disaster for the Russians. I doubt the Ukrainians are as concerned with holding the city as the Russians are with taking it. I think the Ukrainians might use this as a chance just to kill a lot of Russians and render as many Russian units combat ineffective as possible.


That seems to be what some analysts are thinking, that Ukraine has determined not to dump men and resources into a grinder in the city to try and keep it, given that Russia has focused almost all of its offensive power on that one, small place, but to ultimately execute a gradual strategic withdrawal while inflicting as many casualties in men and equipment as possible on Russian and separatist forces.  Instead, they will utilize resources on other fronts to exploit Russian weaknesses created by transferring so much combat power to Severodonetsk and engage in some counteroffensives, like what they have been doing on the southern front.  They want to avoid the same mistake as Russia in dumping a ton of men into one place and into a meat grinder just for a small piece of land.

What's amazing to me is that Russia has to basically focus to that degree just to make such incrementally small gains.  I think it reveals a lot about how diminished their combat power has become (and it's also part of why I think Ukrainian casualty estimates for the Russians are not very exaggerated).

ETA: Sounds like the Ukrainians are doing even better than expected.  If they can push the Russians back with what they have committed to the battle, it would be senseless not to do so.  It is an even worse look for the Russians if they are now getting pushed back despite how heavily they have concentrated their forces here.
My uneducated opinion.....  It seems if Russia is determined to take Severodonetsk back Ukraine should put up a token resistance while dropping back to high ground west of the city. Then blast the hell out of the Russians that move into the city and force them to retreat again. Just keep doing that over and over.


That appears to be exactly what they are doing…..just waiting to see if the orcs bite and cycle 2 begins.


Seems like they are sucking the russians into an urban fight in Severodonetsk and using that high ground to position spotters and artillery with guided ammo to provide support.  Russians suck at urban warfare and the Ukranians seem to be at least passable at it, so it is a good plan.  Plays to their strengths, leverages the russian's weakness, and allows accurate supporting fires.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 2:08:52 PM EDT
[#26]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AaronR:


can't help ignore the economics...


1x Javelin CLU + 1x Javelin Missile: $500,000

vs.

T62 Tank: $300,000 per unit
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what damage does the $300,000 T62 does does during its deployment?

Link Posted: 6/5/2022 2:15:57 PM EDT
[#27]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By M-1975:


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I was wondering when we would have to set the counter to zero again.

Link Posted: 6/5/2022 2:18:51 PM EDT
[#28]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By weptek911:


Mothereffing THIS! Why is this so hard for others to figure out? All Ukraine is asking for is equipment to make it a fair fight. A weakened Russia takes a malevolent player off the chessboard.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By weptek911:
Originally Posted By iggy1337:
Originally Posted By Abakan:
Originally Posted By Star_Scream:
Originally Posted By AaronR:


which price are taxpayers paying for the freebies? full export, or pentagon discount?



How much value are the tax payers getting from a strategic and economic rival getting wrecked with no uniformed service members getting killed?


If this costs us a trillion dollars but kicks the russians in the curb as a fighting force I am all for it. Makes it easier to concentrate on the one enemy that counts: CHINA

I say stomp the russians into pulp. The fact that Ukraine is doing it for us is a huge bonus.


Almost the complete opposite to other Iraq and Afg.

Ukriane Is doing the fighting. Men stay and fight women and children can get to safety as refugees

Shitholes: America doing the fighting. Refugees we got were millitary aged males.





Mothereffing THIS! Why is this so hard for others to figure out? All Ukraine is asking for is equipment to make it a fair fight. A weakened Russia takes a malevolent player off the chessboard.



Exactly, and its surprising how many people cant see the bigger picture about this.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 2:19:52 PM EDT
[#29]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Waldo:


Possible. I have doubts about US ships being directly involved though.
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Originally Posted By Waldo:
Originally Posted By Capta:

Don’t be so sure of that.
The impending world grain shortage will ultimately force action by the west.  There have been recent articles about western nations de-mining Odessa so shipments could resume.  This is basically preparing the western public for moves to break the blockade.  At some point (within months) you will see a UN vote that Russia’s blockade constitutes genocide against non-combatants elsewhere in the world, and is therefore illegal.  Then the US and/or another naval power will announce that they will escort ships to and from Odessa for humanitarian purposes, and that will be game over.


Possible. I have doubts about US ships being directly involved though.


I am expecting Harpoon missiles to be involved though.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 2:20:53 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#30]
Dbl tap
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 2:24:39 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Erno86] [#31]
"Belwarriors" (Belrusian military unit of the armed forces in Ukraine) on the hunt for Ruzzians in Ukraine:

*****  You can hear the sound of landing artillery and mortar rounds, along with full auto, AK(?) fire in the background   *****

Link Posted: 6/5/2022 2:40:29 PM EDT
[#32]
Another angle of the Russian aircraft shootdown.

Link Posted: 6/5/2022 2:48:37 PM EDT
[#33]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast:

For the Ukraine, negotiation just means giving Putin a few years to lick his wounds and learn from his mistakes before he tries again. I doubt they stop fighting, even if (and that's a very big if) Russia takes Odessa.
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That's right on the money

That's the lesson from 2014, which is when essentially the war has been declared and new territory gained.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 2:53:47 PM EDT
[#34]
Russian Federation has a sure way to win and that is to  declare total mobilization and declare it a "war".

Right now RF is fighting with a limited force against a totally mobilized country. Imagine if RF threw 5 times as much in the meat grinder. They would suffer terrible losses but capture the entire country.
That's the modus operandi for 1945 Germany win. Just one battle of Berlin cost them 200K.  Kiev will arguably cost even more.

the reason why total mobilization will not work is because it's politically viable and will escalate Putin's departure. There is no way to mobilize an  entire society without completely collapsing the economy.  People might not comply which will lead to a political crisis, probably another collapse similar to 1991.

So RF is in a lose-lose situation. It has no good moves left. Every move leads to a check mate.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 2:54:31 PM EDT
[#35]
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 3:08:18 PM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By stone-age:


The results are positive either way.

After the war is over the Ukranians need to build at least one memorial to the russian soldiers who fought bravely regardless of the reason. I'm thinking of a sculpture of dead russian soldiers randomly lying on the ground abandoned by the russian military.
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They already did but they got in trouble.  The infamous "Z" layout with the corpses of "good" Russians.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 3:10:25 PM EDT
[Last Edit: YaNi05] [#37]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By ad_nauseam:
Russian Federation has a sure way to win and that is to  declare total mobilization and declare it a "war".

Right now RF is fighting with a limited force against a totally mobilized country. Imagine if RF threw 5 times as much in the meat grinder. They would suffer terrible losses but capture the entire country.
That's the modus operandi for 1945 Germany win. Just one battle of Berlin cost them 200K.  Kiev will arguably cost even more.

the reason why total mobilization will not work is because it's politically viable and will escalate Putin's departure. There is no way to mobilize an  entire society without completely collapsing the economy.  People might not comply which will lead to a political crisis, probably another collapse similar to 1991.

So RF is in a lose-lose situation. It has no good moves left. Every move leads to a check mate.
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I really question whether they have the equipment to make that happen. Given that they are equipping LPR/DPR conscripts with WW2 era junk, are there warehouses of AKs only for Russian use? They're dusting off the T-62's and BMP-1/2's and throwing them into the meatgrinder, so it doesn't seem like a bunch more people will solve their problem. Then they have to weigh this against the immense amount of leadership capital required to mobilize the entire country. So as this grinds on I see less and less chance of Russia declaring war.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 3:13:36 PM EDT
[Last Edit: zach_] [#38]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

That is entirely up to Turkey to decide, and they can just as easily declare that only belligerent nations (i.e. Russia and Ukraine) are excluded. The Turks made a political decision in February to block the straits to all warships, which was an attempt by them (as usual) to play both sides of the game.
In some months time, with the war possibly going badly for Russia, and a UN finding that the Russian blockade was genocidal and illegal, Turkey may find that decision no longer politically expedient.
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Türkiye
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 3:16:50 PM EDT
[#39]
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 3:30:02 PM EDT
[#40]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By ad_nauseam:
Russian Federation has a sure way to win and that is to  declare total mobilization and declare it a "war".

Right now RF is fighting with a limited force against a totally mobilized country. Imagine if RF threw 5 times as much in the meat grinder. They would suffer terrible losses but capture the entire country.
That's the modus operandi for 1945 Germany win. Just one battle of Berlin cost them 200K.  Kiev will arguably cost even more.

the reason why total mobilization will not work is because it's politically viable and will escalate Putin's departure. There is no way to mobilize an  entire society without completely collapsing the economy.  People might not comply which will lead to a political crisis, probably another collapse similar to 1991.

So RF is in a lose-lose situation. It has no good moves left. Every move leads to a check mate.
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Ukraine isn’t totally mobilized yet.  They started with 200K troops and are on their way to 700K-1M.  How many they actually have right now is anyone’s guess, but it probably isn’t 700k for another few months.
This has been discussed at length, but for Russia, declaring a full mobilization carries some severe costs.
It would put the lie to three months of “special operation” propaganda.
The economy, already on the ropes, would collapse quickly.
Moscow and St. Petersburg kids would start dying instead of poor rural expendable kids, leading to inconvenient public questions.
It will be increasingly obvious that Putin’s ruling elite have robbed the country blind and Russian kids are dying because of it.
Russia would have the choice of either properly training their fresh troops, causing a delay of many months, or sending them straight into the meat-grinder.  I think its likely they send them into the meat grinder.
Russia cannot equip them with anything besides AKs (maybe even SKSs) and obsolete heavy equipment which is vulnerable to nearly everything.  Casualty rates would be horrific against an entrenched and by that time hardened Ukrainian army.
Russia cannot supply a mass army outside its own borders.  OK, send two million men south.  They’ll be eating grass in two weeks.
Against this, the west (specifically the US) still has no shortage of modern, first line gear to send.  Russia sending 2,000 T-55s against you?  OK, here’s another 200 MLRS.  Problem solved.  We’re barely scratching the surface on obsolescent tanks/APCs (i.e. M-60, M113) and we haven’t even begun to send fighters.
Given the western will to continue to supply arty ammo and MLRS, I question whether even an all-out zerg rush could take the country.  Ukraine would continue to fight, they have no choice.
IMO a full Russian mobilization is FAR more likely to lead to a 1917-style collapse than a costly victory.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 3:30:20 PM EDT
[#41]
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Originally Posted By ludder093:
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Fuck Russia! I hope they pay for decades for this bullshit!! And fuck all the putin cock gobblers here..fucking rat bastards
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 3:42:26 PM EDT
[#42]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Another angle of the Russian aircraft shootdown.

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Link Posted: 6/5/2022 3:42:43 PM EDT
[#43]
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 3:45:35 PM EDT
[#44]
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Originally Posted By M-1975:

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Originally Posted By M-1975:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Another angle of the Russian aircraft shootdown.




Thanks, was wondering what they thought it was.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 3:49:44 PM EDT
[#45]
" In the video, our defenders blow up an orc munitions depot in the Luhansk region with an artillery strike. "

Link Posted: 6/5/2022 3:50:37 PM EDT
[#46]
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Originally Posted By 4xGM300m:
https://i.imgur.com/hHB7k6N.jpg

T-62s with cages on the turrets, allegedly near Kherson.

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Kept them on so they act as a roof rack to load up more stolen household appliances.  
And then they put someone’s area run on top - either for shade or to keep Water off the stolen big screen TVs
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 4:07:35 PM EDT
[#47]
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Originally Posted By AROKIE:


Fuck Russia! I hope they pay for decades for this bullshit!! And fuck all the putin cock gobblers here..fucking rat bastards
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I have nothing to add other than this bears repeating.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 4:07:57 PM EDT
[Last Edit: THOT_Vaccine] [#48]
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Originally Posted By ad_nauseam:
Russian Federation has a sure way to win and that is to  declare total mobilization and declare it a "war".

Right now RF is fighting with a limited force against a totally mobilized country. Imagine if RF threw 5 times as much in the meat grinder. They would suffer terrible losses but capture the entire country.
That's the modus operandi for 1945 Germany win. Just one battle of Berlin cost them 200K.  Kiev will arguably cost even more.

the reason why total mobilization will not work is because it's politically viable and will escalate Putin's departure. There is no way to mobilize an  entire society without completely collapsing the economy.  People might not comply which will lead to a political crisis, probably another collapse similar to 1991.

So RF is in a lose-lose situation. It has no good moves left. Every move leads to a check mate.
View Quote


So, like a hundred years ago, this guy named Nick decided to arm virtually his whole peasant population to create a "crushing blow" during a war.
Didn't work out so well.

-Edit-
They are going to keep slugging. Because as soon as it's over, the smoke and mirrors they are using to hide how big a fuckup it is.... is over.
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 4:17:12 PM EDT
[#49]
Link Posted: 6/5/2022 4:19:00 PM EDT
[#50]
Kadyrov claims to have destroyed M777s and presents as evidence an artillery strike filmed from a drone a mile away with mud on the lens.

https://vk.com/wall279938622_1378739


I already told you about the American M777 guns we destroyed in Lisichansk. Attached is video evidence. The Nazis naively believed that if the howitzers were driven away after the shelling into the storage facilities, then they could be avoided by our drones. Next time, Nazis, you don’t have to work in vain - their location is calculated by calculating the ballistic trajectory, which was done by the fighters of the Akhmat special forces unit together with the second army corps of the LPR People’s Militia. A few pinpoint strikes, and five 155mm howitzers, along with ammunition, are now a useless pile of metal. You can hand them over, Nazis, like scrap back to the Americans.
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