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Posted: 10/27/2021 8:27:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: The_Beer_Slayer]
This is now the active "shit News links, thanks to BerettaGuy: Originally Posted By BerettaGuy: LINKS TO UKRAINIAN NEWS SOURCES IN ENGLISH Kyiv Post Ukrainian News UKRInform EUROMAIDEN PRESS New Voice of Ukraine Kyiv Independent Ukraine World InterFax Ukraine UATV Ukrainian Journal Official Website of the President of Ukraine Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Save these links. I can't post all the headlines like I've done in the past - too much news and too often. Please @ me with additional stuff to be added here. I don't currently have time to properly curate this thread otherwise. New news link c/o berettaguy: Ukrainian Pravda https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ Stop fake, anti - disinformation site: https://www.stopfake.org/en/main/ |
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USA
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Posted: 2/22/2022 8:35:30 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: am i wrong? lol Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By tstorms: Originally Posted By AROKIE: nothing russia does rarely makes sense What? LOL 😆 am i wrong? lol You have so many double negatives in there that I don’t know if you are wrong. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 8:38:08 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Interesting analysis from one of the geopolitical analysts I follow. https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-the-war-after-the-war Interesting reading indeed. The Russian strategic position is not what it was. The Russian heartlands are great wide opens. Defending great wide opens takes more troops than any country could supply. So, as Russian czar Catherine the Great famously put it, "I have no way to defend my borders but to extend them." Extend them until they reach a physical feature that blocks invasion. Doing such would enable Russian troops to hunker down and plug the gaps between mountain and desert and sea. At the height of Soviet power, the Russians controlled all nine of those geographic gaps that allow entry to the Russian heartlands. When the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia commanded but one. Courtesy of Putin's wars of expansion and "peacekeeping" efforts in the former Soviet space, the Russians now have forces in six. Of the remaining gateways, two lie on Ukraine's western border: the Polish and Bessarabian Gaps. (big snip) Patrolling Russia's current borders is laughably beyond the capacity of Russia's current population. But forward-positioning what troops remain in those gateways? That just might work. So, the Russians will try. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 8:38:56 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CPT_CAVEMAN: So much of The Ukraine would The Russia need to takeover before Ukrainians give up? If they decide to go that route anyway? The Russians would bleed at lot for that to happen. I’d wager we see IED’s go to the next level. |
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PA, USA
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Posted: 2/22/2022 8:39:27 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: That explosion wasn't on a ship.. it was in a warehouse ashore. Again let's keep this thread ontrac and not about Chinese invasion conspiracies What about the idea of a Chinese backed Mexico recognising Southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico as independent territories? Is that too far into the weeds? |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 8:41:10 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: No I think it was only an hour I miss spoke seemed long to me lol Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By motown_steve: If Putin thought there were going to be any repercussions, then he would not be doing this. He knows exactly how far he can push, and he's going to push up to the line where he knows there will be repercussions. im going with you didnt listen to Putins 2 hour speech today huh?  All I can find on Youtube is one that was 58 minutes. Seemed like the full version. Is there actually a two hour version? No I think it was only an hour I miss spoke seemed long to me lol It did get a bit tedious. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 8:43:12 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By tstorms: So are we going to fast track the M1a2 sale to Poland? Seems like there's been a lot of foot dragging We should give them all of ours, according to GD, tanks are obsolete and useless. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 8:48:41 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By torstin: What about the idea of a Chinese backed Mexico recognising Southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico as independent territories? Is that too far into the weeds? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By torstin: Originally Posted By AROKIE: That explosion wasn't on a ship.. it was in a warehouse ashore. Again let's keep this thread ontrac and not about Chinese invasion conspiracies What about the idea of a Chinese backed Mexico recognising Southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico as independent territories? Is that too far into the weeds? Maybe start a new thread for that crazy talk. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 8:49:54 AM EDT
[#8]
So, what's the mood on the ISS today ???
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Posted: 2/22/2022 8:50:36 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CPT_CAVEMAN: So much of The Ukraine would The Russia need to takeover before Ukrainians give up? If they decide to go that route anyway? Give up in what capacity? If Russia took the entire country there would very likely be an insurgency. With a population of 44 million, even if only 3% actively supported that it would be close to 1.5 million. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 8:52:41 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Nailcrusher: Give up in what capacity? If Russia took the entire country there would very likely be an insurgency. With a population of 44 million, even if only 3% actively supported that it would be close to 1.5 million. Maybe. If they take the whole country do they move in a bunch of Russians? |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 8:52:44 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dagger41: So, what's the mood on the ISS today ???
Awkward lol |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 8:57:02 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CPT_CAVEMAN: Maybe. If they take the whole country do they move in a bunch of Russians? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CPT_CAVEMAN: Originally Posted By Nailcrusher: Give up in what capacity? If Russia took the entire country there would very likely be an insurgency. With a population of 44 million, even if only 3% actively supported that it would be close to 1.5 million. Maybe. If they take the whole country do they move in a bunch of Russians? You mean like ethnic cleansing and resettle with Russians? Or try to police Ukraine with military? |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:01:49 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GutWrench: This thread is kinda cool. I never knew arfcom had expert Russian/Ukraine relations people. You guys sound like y’all have been planning this invasion and resistance for centuries… y’all appear to know everything about troop movements. Which 100 mile piece of land means the most. Which group of rebels will resist, with what and how hard. How do you guys do this? Lol Your post drips of sarcasm like Biden drools over a pre-pubescent girls but I’ll answer. Speaking personally, I’m getting a ton of information off of OSINT channels. They are a lot of talented people watching this who are able to take a video on social media, get time stamps off meta data, use separate programs to geo-locate the area, and have enough vehicle id knowledge to id the type of vehicle and often unit. Put together a bunch of these guys and you get a pretty accurate picture of the environment there. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:07:22 AM EDT
[Last Edit: WoodHeat]
[#14]
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:08:31 AM EDT
[Last Edit: WoodHeat]
[#15]
For some reason this tweet wont post: https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1496088290717483010
 Attached File |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:08:57 AM EDT
[#16]
It rather seems that many have missed what has taken place under their noses.
This is no longer a problem  Attached FileBelarus has silently gone from awkward vassal state to annexation. Lukašenko is now 100% irrelevant. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:10:24 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Nailcrusher: You mean like ethnic cleansing and resettle with Russians? Or try to police Ukraine with military? Was thinking the second when I posted. But after you mention it, get both? |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:10:36 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Smokey0844: Your post drips of sarcasm like Biden drools over a pre-pubescent girls but I’ll answer. Speaking personally, I’m getting a ton of information off of OSINT channels. They are a lot of talented people watching this who are able to take a video on social media, get time stamps off meta data, use separate programs to geo-locate the area, and have enough vehicle id knowledge to id the type of vehicle and often unit. Put together a bunch of these guys and you get a pretty accurate picture of the environment there. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Smokey0844: Originally Posted By GutWrench: This thread is kinda cool. I never knew arfcom had expert Russian/Ukraine relations people. You guys sound like y’all have been planning this invasion and resistance for centuries… y’all appear to know everything about troop movements. Which 100 mile piece of land means the most. Which group of rebels will resist, with what and how hard. How do you guys do this? Lol Your post drips of sarcasm like Biden drools over a pre-pubescent girls but I’ll answer. Speaking personally, I’m getting a ton of information off of OSINT channels. They are a lot of talented people watching this who are able to take a video on social media, get time stamps off meta data, use separate programs to geo-locate the area, and have enough vehicle id knowledge to id the type of vehicle and often unit. Put together a bunch of these guys and you get a pretty accurate picture of the environment there.
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:11:15 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: Interesting reading indeed. The Russian strategic position is not what it was. The Russian heartlands are great wide opens. Defending great wide opens takes more troops than any country could supply. So, as Russian czar Catherine the Great famously put it, "I have no way to defend my borders but to extend them." Extend them until they reach a physical feature that blocks invasion. Doing such would enable Russian troops to hunker down and plug the gaps between mountain and desert and sea. At the height of Soviet power, the Russians controlled all nine of those geographic gaps that allow entry to the Russian heartlands. When the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia commanded but one. Courtesy of Putin's wars of expansion and "peacekeeping" efforts in the former Soviet space, the Russians now have forces in six. Of the remaining gateways, two lie on Ukraine's western border: the Polish and Bessarabian Gaps. (big snip) Patrolling Russia's current borders is laughably beyond the capacity of Russia's current population. But forward-positioning what troops remain in those gateways? That just might work. So, the Russians will try. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Interesting analysis from one of the geopolitical analysts I follow. https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-the-war-after-the-war Interesting reading indeed. The Russian strategic position is not what it was. The Russian heartlands are great wide opens. Defending great wide opens takes more troops than any country could supply. So, as Russian czar Catherine the Great famously put it, "I have no way to defend my borders but to extend them." Extend them until they reach a physical feature that blocks invasion. Doing such would enable Russian troops to hunker down and plug the gaps between mountain and desert and sea. At the height of Soviet power, the Russians controlled all nine of those geographic gaps that allow entry to the Russian heartlands. When the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia commanded but one. Courtesy of Putin's wars of expansion and "peacekeeping" efforts in the former Soviet space, the Russians now have forces in six. Of the remaining gateways, two lie on Ukraine's western border: the Polish and Bessarabian Gaps. (big snip) Patrolling Russia's current borders is laughably beyond the capacity of Russia's current population. But forward-positioning what troops remain in those gateways? That just might work. So, the Russians will try.  Failed To Load Title I love Zeihan, he's totally worthy of everyone's time, but he's a hardcore geographic/demographic determinist, the people in his model of the world practically run on rails to a precise schedule. He tends to ignore messy politics, personal egos, and so on. Leaders in his world make essentially rational decisions and win or lose based purely on the spreadsheet results. He doesn't account for how the decision for war or peace can turn on polling for an upcoming election that might flip upside down at any time due to a sex scandal or something, or the thin line between a population knuckling under or getting pissed off and digging in their heels in defiance, etc. I follow him to better understand broad trends, but reality is far more randomized than his sketches of it. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:14:13 AM EDT
[#20]
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:17:20 AM EDT
[#21]
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:20:13 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Finslayer83:
I’m waiting for these guys to get involved. 
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:24:40 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Smokey0844: I’m waiting for these guys to get involved. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/518633/350F0275-65A0-480B-AAED-0D63250B5F41-2288711.jpg Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Smokey0844: Originally Posted By Finslayer83:
I’m waiting for these guys to get involved. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/518633/350F0275-65A0-480B-AAED-0D63250B5F41-2288711.jpg I fear we are about to see some horrific combat very soon |
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IRL
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:24:56 AM EDT
[#24]
Ukraine-Russia crisis: Germany blocks Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline certification
Taoiseach Michel Martin has said Russia's push into eastern Ukraine had "crossed a line" that will meet with a firm and united response from EU leaders. He was speaking in Berlin alongside Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who attacked the move as a "serious breach" of international law and diplomatic agreements. The German leader promised a robust mix of sanctions and diplomacy to avoid the "catastrophe of war" in Europe. At their joint press conference, Mr Scholz announced he had intervened to halt the permit process for a new undersea Russian gas pipeline to Germany, Nord Stream 2. "The situation has changed dramatically," he said. Nord Stream 2 is a 1,200km pipeline under the Baltic Sea, which was planned to take gas from Russia to Germany, pending approval from Germany and the European Union. Mr Martin said Russia's move created a "chilling effect for small states across European continent" and called on Russia to reconsider its actions. "This crosses a line, it is a flagrant violation of international law and a breach of Ukraine's sovereignty," said Mr Martin, hours after Russian leader Vladimir Putin ordered troops over the border into Moscow-controlled territories in the east of Ukraine. "Our unity is our strength and there is very clear unity of purpose within all EU member states. The German leader agreed that the move was a breach of the UN charter and Helsinki agreements on national sovereignty and the immovability of national borders as well as the more recent Minsk agreement. "It is up to the international community to respond to these one-sided, incomprehensible and unjustified actions of the Russian president in a co-ordinated and targeted way," he said, "so we send a signal to Moscow that such actions will not remain without consequence." After a series of video and telephone calls with Washington and Paris, German officials said Mr Scholz and other leaders are determined to continue efforts to engage with Moscow while introducing a first stage of targeted but limited sanctions. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:24:58 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Nailcrusher: You mean like ethnic cleansing and resettle with Russians? Or try to police Ukraine with military? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Nailcrusher: Originally Posted By CPT_CAVEMAN: Originally Posted By Nailcrusher: Give up in what capacity? If Russia took the entire country there would very likely be an insurgency. With a population of 44 million, even if only 3% actively supported that it would be close to 1.5 million. Maybe. If they take the whole country do they move in a bunch of Russians? You mean like ethnic cleansing and resettle with Russians? Or try to police Ukraine with military? That’s why Luhansk and Donetsk have Russian populations in the first place. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:27:49 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dagger41: So, what's the mood on the ISS today ???
Wait wait wait wait. I'm confused. Pootie Poot said he was freeing the oppressed people of the DPR from genocide at the hands of the Ukrainians. But all we see is Russian flags being waved at the 100% grass roots spontaneous celebration. Now we have a space commie saying glory to Russia and not glory to DPR? This just doesn't add up. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:28:41 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: For some reason this tweet wont post: https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1496088290717483010 https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/176088/FMMr2-zXEAE61341111111_jpg-2288706.JPG So basically the front fell off. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:28:54 AM EDT
[#28]
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TX, USA
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:29:39 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: am i wrong? lol Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By tstorms: Originally Posted By AROKIE: nothing russia does rarely makes sense What? LOL 😆 am i wrong? lol Very rarely are you not incorrect. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:30:29 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mal_means_bad:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BOQ7dZxJ3YI love Zeihan, he's totally worthy of everyone's time, but he's a hardcore geographic/demographic determinist, the people in his model of the world practically run on rails to a precise schedule. He tends to ignore messy politics, personal egos, and so on. Leaders in his world make essentially rational decisions and win or lose based purely on the spreadsheet results. He doesn't account for how the decision for war or peace can turn on polling for an upcoming election that might flip upside down at any time due to a sex scandal or something, or the thin line between a population knuckling under or getting pissed off and digging in their heels in defiance, etc. I follow him to better understand broad trends, but reality is far more randomized than his sketches of it. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mal_means_bad: Originally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Interesting analysis from one of the geopolitical analysts I follow. https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-the-war-after-the-war Interesting reading indeed. The Russian strategic position is not what it was. The Russian heartlands are great wide opens. Defending great wide opens takes more troops than any country could supply. So, as Russian czar Catherine the Great famously put it, "I have no way to defend my borders but to extend them." Extend them until they reach a physical feature that blocks invasion. Doing such would enable Russian troops to hunker down and plug the gaps between mountain and desert and sea. At the height of Soviet power, the Russians controlled all nine of those geographic gaps that allow entry to the Russian heartlands. When the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia commanded but one. Courtesy of Putin's wars of expansion and "peacekeeping" efforts in the former Soviet space, the Russians now have forces in six. Of the remaining gateways, two lie on Ukraine's western border: the Polish and Bessarabian Gaps. (big snip) Patrolling Russia's current borders is laughably beyond the capacity of Russia's current population. But forward-positioning what troops remain in those gateways? That just might work. So, the Russians will try. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BOQ7dZxJ3YI love Zeihan, he's totally worthy of everyone's time, but he's a hardcore geographic/demographic determinist, the people in his model of the world practically run on rails to a precise schedule. He tends to ignore messy politics, personal egos, and so on. Leaders in his world make essentially rational decisions and win or lose based purely on the spreadsheet results. He doesn't account for how the decision for war or peace can turn on polling for an upcoming election that might flip upside down at any time due to a sex scandal or something, or the thin line between a population knuckling under or getting pissed off and digging in their heels in defiance, etc. I follow him to better understand broad trends, but reality is far more randomized than his sketches of it. I thought the geographic explanation was interesting. For it to work as an explanation today would require Putin to believe that the west intends to invade. If he believes what he said last night then he thinks that those former Soviet bloc countries are examples of such an invasion. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:32:08 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Finslayer83:
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:33:05 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By realwar: If you want to hear what the other side is saying. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uov63FGrmOYI made it through the first 4 minutes of that and had to quit. Unbelievable.
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:33:11 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Finslayer83:
uhhhh that seems like a very extreme statement wow |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:34:28 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FrankyRay: I made it through the first 4 minutes of that and had to quit. Unbelievable. I watched RT for a while before Putins speech. It was like peering through a multiverse portal. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:35:47 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By m24shooter: Wait wait wait wait. I'm confused. Pootie Poot said he was freeing the oppressed people of the DPR from genocide at the hands of the Ukrainians. But all we see is Russian flags being waved at the 100% grass roots spontaneous celebration. Now we have a space commie saying glory to Russia and not glory to DPR? This just doesn't add up. Again,it doesn’t have to add up to a sober Westerner,it only has to add up to a population suffering from Wernicke Korsakoff psychosis. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:36:08 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hking: uhhhh that seems like a very extreme statement wow Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hking: Originally Posted By Finslayer83:
uhhhh that seems like a very extreme statement wow This clarifies it a bit: ELINT News (@ELINTNews) February 22, 2022 |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:36:23 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Finslayer83:
That should tell any doubters what Russias true intentions are |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:37:00 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: For some reason this tweet wont post: https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1496088290717483010 https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/176088/FMMr2-zXEAE61341111111_jpg-2288706.JPG If they don't have a concrete answer to where they think the DPR and LPR borders lie, I don't think they plan on stopping short of Kyiv. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:37:01 AM EDT
[#39]
So now that russia has annexed those territories. Ukraine should immediately join Nato and get sent nukes.
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:37:02 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hking: uhhhh that seems like a very extreme statement wow Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hking: Originally Posted By Finslayer83:
uhhhh that seems like a very extreme statement wow Well he's showing his true colors now. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:37:05 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hking: uhhhh that seems like a very extreme statement wow Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hking: Originally Posted By Finslayer83:
uhhhh that seems like a very extreme statement wow Did you miss Putin's speech? He basically said that the former Soviet bloc has no claim to be independent from Russia. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:38:00 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By evilyoda: So now that russia has annexed those territories. Ukraine should immediately join Nato and get sent nukes. I think the opportunity for Ukraine to join Nato is long gone, it needed to be done before Crimea. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:38:10 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FrankyRay: I made it through the first 4 minutes of that and had to quit. Unbelievable. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By realwar: If you want to hear what the other side is saying. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uov63FGrmOYI made it through the first 4 minutes of that and had to quit. Unbelievable. The obviously American anchor makes it all the more infuriating. Reminds me of Patrick Lancaster. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:38:15 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4thbreak: Didn't the marines recently get rid of tanks? Always preparing for the last war, 🤦♂️ |
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USA
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:38:31 AM EDT
[#45]
I hate to draw parallels, but does anyone remember the little Kosovo war that Nato fought? Started with an independence movement, then a rebellion. Then, NATO forces bombed the crap out of Yugoslavia. Then, independent Republic of Kosovo was declared. Then, it was recognized by the warring countries and occupied by the peacekeepers. Sounds familiar?
Not defending Putin, he's a scumbag and a thief. But a precedent for this action was set a long time ago. |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:38:50 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mal_means_bad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BOQ7dZxJ3YI love Zeihan, he's totally worthy of everyone's time, but he's a hardcore geographic/demographic determinist, the people in his model of the world practically run on rails to a precise schedule. He tends to ignore messy politics, personal egos, and so on. Leaders in his world make essentially rational decisions and win or lose based purely on the spreadsheet results. He doesn't account for how the decision for war or peace can turn on polling for an upcoming election that might flip upside down at any time due to a sex scandal or something, or the thin line between a population knuckling under or getting pissed off and digging in their heels in defiance, etc. I follow him to better understand broad trends, but reality is far more randomized than his sketches of it. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mal_means_bad: Originally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Interesting analysis from one of the geopolitical analysts I follow. https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-the-war-after-the-war Interesting reading indeed. The Russian strategic position is not what it was. The Russian heartlands are great wide opens. Defending great wide opens takes more troops than any country could supply. So, as Russian czar Catherine the Great famously put it, "I have no way to defend my borders but to extend them." Extend them until they reach a physical feature that blocks invasion. Doing such would enable Russian troops to hunker down and plug the gaps between mountain and desert and sea. At the height of Soviet power, the Russians controlled all nine of those geographic gaps that allow entry to the Russian heartlands. When the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia commanded but one. Courtesy of Putin's wars of expansion and "peacekeeping" efforts in the former Soviet space, the Russians now have forces in six. Of the remaining gateways, two lie on Ukraine's western border: the Polish and Bessarabian Gaps. (big snip) Patrolling Russia's current borders is laughably beyond the capacity of Russia's current population. But forward-positioning what troops remain in those gateways? That just might work. So, the Russians will try. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BOQ7dZxJ3YI love Zeihan, he's totally worthy of everyone's time, but he's a hardcore geographic/demographic determinist, the people in his model of the world practically run on rails to a precise schedule. He tends to ignore messy politics, personal egos, and so on. Leaders in his world make essentially rational decisions and win or lose based purely on the spreadsheet results. He doesn't account for how the decision for war or peace can turn on polling for an upcoming election that might flip upside down at any time due to a sex scandal or something, or the thin line between a population knuckling under or getting pissed off and digging in their heels in defiance, etc. I follow him to better understand broad trends, but reality is far more randomized than his sketches of it. Thats definitely fair. Although I think its worth note that he, as well as his former boss at Stratfor George Friedman, predicted Russia would be getting it on to restore some of its borders in the 2020 zone. That said, his current analysis of a broader global disorder after the US returns to Isolationism, and the high seas return to state sponsored piracy disrupting global trade...it seems to completely discount the US's moves to Contain a rising China / Cold War 2. Which I think is a huge omission. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:38:59 AM EDT
[#47]
Things that will never happen: Biden prompts NATO to quickly admit Ukraine as a member and personally delivers the news to Putin. Ok now back to the reality of weakly worded letters conveying how naughty Russia is being.
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:42:53 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By castlebravo84: If they don't have a concrete answer to where they think the DPR and LPR borders lie, I don't think they plan on stopping short of Kyiv. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By castlebravo84: Originally Posted By rca2222: For some reason this tweet wont post: https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1496088290717483010 https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/176088/FMMr2-zXEAE61341111111_jpg-2288706.JPG If they don't have a concrete answer to where they think the DPR and LPR borders lie, I don't think they plan on stopping short of Kyiv. I read it as being clear that they were referring not to the line of contact, but to the borders as currently drawn. |
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:43:53 AM EDT
[#49]
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NV, USA
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Posted: 2/22/2022 9:44:21 AM EDT
[#50]
Another interesting analysis.
Embarrasingly, Al Jazeera has had muchhhhh more in depth and nuanced coverage of this issue then our domestic outlets (NYT, Fox, Reuters, etc) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/22/is-war-more-likely-after-russia-recognised-rebel-statelets |
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