User Panel
Posted: 7/25/2018 2:01:53 PM EDT
https://www.dailywire.com/news/33568/polls-republicans-trailing-badly-congressional-ben-shapiro
"While President Trump’s approval rating continues to maintain his record highs, two new polls show a tremendous gap opening between Democrats and Republicans on the generic Congressional ballot. Quinnipiac and Kaiser both have Democrats ahead by 12 points; the Real Clear Politics poll average places Democrats ahead by 7.8 points." UPDATE: Democrats have a 75 percent chance of retaking the house https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/ Primary turnout shattered records for the Democrats https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/aug/16/democrats-shatter-primary-turnout-records-bank-ant/ UPDATE II: Cruz only ahead one point in Texas, well with Margin of error http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/403786-poll-cruz-leads-orourke-by-one-point-in-texas-senate-race UPDATE III: More evidence Senate will go blue https://stoehr.substack.com/p/we-think-the-senate-will-go-blue UPDATE IV: Gillum leads Desantis by four points in Florida UPDATE V: Texans start showing up to the polls. Cruz leads Beto by nine UPDATE VI: Gillum up 9 points |
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We still have a long time until November.
If anything, having stories like this help suppress the Dem vote, IMO. |
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Someone needs to check the numbers. At some point they might actually give us the correct ones....
Quoted:
We need to motivate conservatives to get out and vote. |
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i don't trust the polls, but i wouldn't dismiss the potential for these numbers either.
the left is *motivated*. the only real question is, how many people are "on the left"? |
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When the only thing you have left is lies, might as well keep lying.
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Skeptical of all polls and I think it will have only gotten worse since the election as Rs checkout or intentionally mislead any polling samples.
However, I'll take them seriously and make sure I hit every election. |
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looks like the propagandists are gearing up for midterms with their totally unbiased and balanced sampling polls...
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The 2016 election and its revealing of DNC-directed weaponized polling discredited and should have destroyed the entire polling industry, but somehow here we are.
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The Quinnipiac poll always gives Trump and the GOP their worst numbers; I contend that the sole reason they do the poll is to pull up the Democrat number in the RCP averages.
Having said that: this will be a Democrat year, and just how "Democrat" will depend on who shows up to vote, and as importantly, where. Big turnout in Democrat-represented districts are meaningless in terms of control of the Congress. My own guess is the Democrat lead in the generic ballot is closer to five points and I saw some numbers yesterday that showed the margin even narrower. If the Democrat lead in the generic poll (they almost always lead, even when they are losing) is below six, the GOP narrowly keeps the House; above that, and it's Speaker Pelosi again. The Senate will remain under GOP control. |
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Just make sure you all get your asses out and vote, and drag your family and friends with you (unless they're liberal)
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In this thread we see Arfcom ignoring how pissed off and motivated the Democrats are while Republicans are in still in a "We President Now" circle jerk and laughing because they think Republicans have it in the bag and really don't even need to show up to vote because the polls are always wrong.
The Democrats are very pissed and motivated. The DNC made key plays earlier this year to position specific candidates in key races to capitalize on the number of seats they win. Historically the party in power looses 30 House seats in the first mid-term election after a Presidential party change. In addition to putting key candidates in place the Democrats have been perfecting their social media game and have those resources already in place. Remember a few months back when the site was flooded with disruptor accounts? Those were just the fringe accounts designed to push the limits and monitor the response. Even if the polls showed Republicans with huge leads across the board, assume the race is going to be close and the Democrats have a good chance at winning. If your primaries are over, then find your Republican candidates, attend a fund raising event, volunteer to help them knock on doors or make phone calls, and get on the list for a yard sign. If your primary hasn't happened yet then make sure you vote so the best candidate wins and people will have someone they can feel they can support. Voter turn out is going to determine who controls the House. Laughing at the polls and acting is Republicans don't need to do anything is the wrong approach and it will cost us seats. Midterm elections only get about 40% voter turn out. Meaning the people most upset are the people most determine to get to the polls and vote. That is hands down the Democrats right now. Republicans need to show up in force and vote, not take it easy because "we are winning". That winning ends if the Democrats take the House. |
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Polls in this case are trying to do two things. First...decide for folks that have a hard time deciding to "get behind a winner" and second, dissuade people on the other side from voting because "we are not going to win anyway".
Either way it is just propaganda supporting the political wing of the same communist party that the propaganda wing (MSM) belongs to. |
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Who needs polls? I expect record-breaking shenanigans on their side, and a series of deliberate fuckups by the RNC (legitimate rape x87)
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Every president for the last 100 years has lost seats in congress during the first midterm.....except two
Dont be surprised if it happens again |
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Quoted:
In this thread we see Arfcom ignoring how pissed off and motivated the Democrats are while Republicans are in still in a "We President Now" circle jerk and laughing because they think Republicans have it in the bag and really don't even need to show up to vote because the polls are always wrong. The Democrats are very pissed and motivated. The DNC made key plays earlier this year to position specific candidates in key races to capitalize on the number of seats they win. Historically the party in power looses 30 House seats in the first mid-term election after a Presidential party change. In addition to putting key candidates in place the Democrats have been perfecting their social media game and have those resources already in place. Remember a few months back when the site was flooded with disruptor accounts? Those were just the fringe accounts designed to push the limits and monitor the response. Even if the polls showed Republicans with huge leads across the board, assume the race is going to be close and the Democrats have a good chance at winning. If your primaries are over, then find your Republican candidates, attend a fund raising event, volunteer to help them knock on doors or make phone calls, and get on the list for a yard sign. If your primary hasn't happened yet then make sure you vote so the best candidate wins and people will have someone they can feel they can support. Voter turn out is going to determine who controls the House. Laughing at the polls and acting is Republicans don't need to do anything is the wrong approach and it will cost us seats. Midterm elections only get about 40% voter turn out. Meaning the people most upset are the people most determine to get to the polls and vote. That is hands down the Democrats right now. Republicans need to show up in force and vote, not take it easy because "we are winning". That winning ends if the Democrats take the House. View Quote |
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Here is my opinion.
After Scott Walker won in Wisconsin and started on his agenda the left started a meltdown. They occupied the capital building for over 30 days. They shouted shame shame shame at anyone connected to the GOP. They started a bullshit John Doe investigation against Scott Walker and republican donors (sound familar???) Many dems fled the state so no votes could be called. Scott Walker won the recall and the republicans defended against other recalls. Scott Walker then expanded the republican majority against all of the polling data. The left's meltdown continued until their backs were broken. Their antics pissed so many people off in the middle that they stopped voting democrat and started voting republican. Wisconsin went red for Trump. The democrats have been runnning their anti-Scott Walker Wisconsin playbook against Trump and took it national. It is going to backfire on them nationally just like it did in Wisconsin. |
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Trump knew he had a chance of winning due to state level polls. That's why he campaigned non-stop in the lead up.
I'd be worried. Swire is right. |
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Quinnipiac
They had Hillary up like 12 points going into election might. They're such a fucking joke. |
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Record low unemployment and rising wages after inflation.
Democrats may take seats but those are strong headwinds to fight for a blue wave. |
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The opposition party usually makes gains in mid-term elections.
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Quoted:
Trump knew he had a chance of winning due to state level polls. That's why he campaigned non-stop in the lead up. I'd be worried. Swire is right. View Quote |
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When the question being asked is "How likely are you to vote for the Democrats, over the fascists Republicans?", you get the response you want.
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We need to spread this around and make it known to dems so they dont need to go out and vote.
They already have it in the bag |
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We've got a ways to go yet. The campaign ads showing Dems being retards haven't even started yet.
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Quoted:
We still have a long time until November. If anything, having stories like this help suppress the Dem vote, IMO. View Quote |
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Here's some good news.
https://www.weeklystandard.com/andrew-egger/poll-josh-hawley-now-leads-claire-mccaskill-in-missouri-senate-race |
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Quoted:
In this thread we see Arfcom ignoring how pissed off and motivated the Democrats are while Republicans are in still in a "We President Now" circle jerk and laughing because they think Republicans have it in the bag and really don't even need to show up to vote because the polls are always wrong. The Democrats are very pissed and motivated. The DNC made key plays earlier this year to position specific candidates in key races to capitalize on the number of seats they win. Historically the party in power looses 30 House seats in the first mid-term election after a Presidential party change. In addition to putting key candidates in place the Democrats have been perfecting their social media game and have those resources already in place. Remember a few months back when the site was flooded with disruptor accounts? Those were just the fringe accounts designed to push the limits and monitor the response. Even if the polls showed Republicans with huge leads across the board, assume the race is going to be close and the Democrats have a good chance at winning. If your primaries are over, then find your Republican candidates, attend a fund raising event, volunteer to help them knock on doors or make phone calls, and get on the list for a yard sign. If your primary hasn't happened yet then make sure you vote so the best candidate wins and people will have someone they can feel they can support. Voter turn out is going to determine who controls the House. Laughing at the polls and acting is Republicans don't need to do anything is the wrong approach and it will cost us seats. Midterm elections only get about 40% voter turn out. Meaning the people most upset are the people most determine to get to the polls and vote. That is hands down the Democrats right now. Republicans need to show up in force and vote, not take it easy because "we are winning". That winning ends if the Democrats take the House. View Quote |
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Well, they ain't always wrong...
Right now, American politics is in such a state of flux, I don't think any polls can be trusted! |
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FPNI (with authority.)
Been in every eligible election since I was old enough to vote. God willing, won't miss the next one either. Carter was going to beat Reagan. Dukakis was going to beat Bush. Gore was going to beat Bush. John (Swiftboat) Kerry was going to beat Bush. FHRC was going to beat Trump. |
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As a VA resident, we weren't supposed to almost lose the state house last year.
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I wouldn't discount it.
Democrat voters have lost their damned minds. They are so wound up that they can no longer think or reason properly. All they know is what CNN tells them and they will vote accordingly. Republicans will have to fight for this one or they will get clobbered. |
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LOLZ
These people are setting themselves up for another let down and ummmm Russia moment. |
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Quoted:
FPNI (with authority.) FHRC was going to beat Trump. View Quote Never believe your own hype. FHRC did and look what happened to her. Two time loser! I don't want a razor thin majority that flip flops on whether they want to MAGA or not. I want to MAGA the Dems in the ass until they tap out and cease to exist as a political force. |
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Yea we have Kathy Manning running against Ted Budd.
Ted is a gun shop owner and if you look at Kathy's Facebook it has very little traffic on it compared to Congressman Budd. Ted hits all the local areas and always comes to our Veterans Day dinner and is a pro gun pro military guy. Kathy is some old ugly trust fund lady that is really not very likable. Sorta like a Hillary 2.0, I just don't see her doing well even with the Greensboro vote. Ted will crush her old crusty liberal ass in the debates. |
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Maybe Trump is doing well but the GOPe because they are a bunch of do nothing, never Trump, obstructionist retards?
How about get off your asses and pass some legislation to help out the POTUS. |
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