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Posted: 10/27/2021 8:27:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: The_Beer_Slayer]
It says it's been moved, but the link just takes me to the Community page. What gives?


This is now the active "shit (might be) is definitely happening in Ukraine" thread.

News links, thanks to BerettaGuy:
Originally Posted By BerettaGuy:
LINKS TO UKRAINIAN NEWS SOURCES IN ENGLISH

Kyiv Post

Ukrainian News

UKRInform

EUROMAIDEN PRESS

New Voice of Ukraine

Kyiv Independent

Ukraine World

InterFax Ukraine

UATV

Ukrainian Journal

Official Website of the President of Ukraine

Ukrainian Ministry of Defense

Save these links. I can't post all the headlines like I've done in the past - too much news and too often.
View Quote


Please @ me with additional stuff to be added here. I don't currently have time to properly curate this thread otherwise.

New news link c/o berettaguy:

Ukrainian Pravda
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/

Stop fake, anti - disinformation site:
https://www.stopfake.org/en/main/
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 8:16:21 PM EDT
[#1]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Alexein:



This guy is employed by Yale, the same Yale that published this https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2018/04/13/yale-needs-to-stop-accepting-republican-students/

Here is a quote from him "the united states needs to recognize that Russia does have legitimate security concerns we need to convey in our words and our actions that we are prepared to deal with a responsible fashion with those security concerns uh going forward and there is in fact a way that Russia can feal secure uh along with the countries of Europe uh and the united states more broadly speaking".

I rank him somewhere between a Russians Shill and a chimpanzee begging for his life.  

Russia security priorities should be,
1:STOP FUCKING YOUR PEOPLE TO DEATH!
2:STOP FUCKING YOUR neighbors TO DEATH!
3:STOP THREATENING TO destroy THE PLANET!

or how about stop stealing children, maybe stop stealing anything, stop lying, but that isn't going to happen as long as the lie that is Russian culture is allowed to continue.  Russians need to be free, and that starts with not being Russians, any appeasement is only to support the continued disease, for Russians to be Free Russia has to die otherwise Russia and Russian culture will continue to fuck the Russian people and everyone and everything they touch back to the stone age.

We were Russians once took 2 generations to get beyond the fear that they were going to find us and kill us in our sleep, two more to discover we were never Russan to begin with.
View Quote



I don't mean to trivialize this great post, but I'm going to focus on the great reference.




Link Posted: 9/1/2023 8:18:02 PM EDT
[#2]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By thanosnap:


Be careful what you wish for. I thought the same thing until I watched a lecture by Thomas Graham, Bush Jr's director of Russia policy. He now teaches Russia Studies at Yale:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkli-wfOv2M


And I realized now that we control the price of Russian oil we could sink Russia's economy quite easily, and Europe wants to but the Biden administration is like "whoa, hold on there." We could defeat Russia with a stroke of a pen, regardless of F-16s and ATACMS. Energy is 2/3rds of Russia's economy and it wouldn't be hard to give Ukraine the capability to take out their refineries and pipelines. We wouldn't even need to take that stuff out now; we could just lower the price. Russian oil is among the most expensive to produce, twice as expensive to pull out of the ground as Saudi oil. Right now the price is set at just a couple bucks per barrel above their expenses. According to Peter Zeihan, once the oil pumps in Siberia stop pumping, the well caps freeze over due to permafrost and it takes decades to re-drill.

But what does destroying Russia accomplish? What do we want out of this war? What do we want from Russia? Well, they are our enemy now and we want to cripple their war making capability, but according to Graham they still span 14 time zones and have all these vast resources, and they're a nuclear power. Above all we want prosperity, not the satisfaction of sinking an adversarial country. We spent a decade trying to Westernize Russia in the 90s and some say we didn't do enough; some say they will never Westernize. But destroying them gives us nothing.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By thanosnap:
Originally Posted By governmentman:
Russia will be a broken shell; economically crippled, militarily exhausted, and ideologically humiliated.


Be careful what you wish for. I thought the same thing until I watched a lecture by Thomas Graham, Bush Jr's director of Russia policy. He now teaches Russia Studies at Yale:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkli-wfOv2M


And I realized now that we control the price of Russian oil we could sink Russia's economy quite easily, and Europe wants to but the Biden administration is like "whoa, hold on there." We could defeat Russia with a stroke of a pen, regardless of F-16s and ATACMS. Energy is 2/3rds of Russia's economy and it wouldn't be hard to give Ukraine the capability to take out their refineries and pipelines. We wouldn't even need to take that stuff out now; we could just lower the price. Russian oil is among the most expensive to produce, twice as expensive to pull out of the ground as Saudi oil. Right now the price is set at just a couple bucks per barrel above their expenses. According to Peter Zeihan, once the oil pumps in Siberia stop pumping, the well caps freeze over due to permafrost and it takes decades to re-drill.

But what does destroying Russia accomplish? What do we want out of this war? What do we want from Russia? Well, they are our enemy now and we want to cripple their war making capability, but according to Graham they still span 14 time zones and have all these vast resources, and they're a nuclear power. Above all we want prosperity, not the satisfaction of sinking an adversarial country. We spent a decade trying to Westernize Russia in the 90s and some say we didn't do enough; some say they will never Westernize. But destroying them gives us nothing.


This is incorrect. Destroying them gives us one less adversary on the global geopolitical playing field. Remember that Russia, and the Soviet Union before them, were the largest source of instability in countries worldwide. By eliminating their ability to destabilize countries worldwide, we can work far less to achieve world stability. So, no, we don't want prosperity for Russia, we tried to give them that in the 90s and they chose to go a different route (empire) and now we (and Europe and especially Ukraine) are paying the price for our inattention.

The price of oil isn't set by the US regardless of how the idiots in DC try to spin it. Oil is a global marketplace. Further, by stupidly restricting our own production, we are enabling *higher* prices, not lower ones, on the world oil market, precisely the opposite of what we should be doing.
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 8:24:51 PM EDT
[#3]
Nice to see more examples of Russia losing the luxury of not having to protect its vast homeland and instead pulling forces from the front to protect its own cities and bases.

mi-28s have radars and are about the only helo that can find the drones and are slow enough to shoot them down..

so a win is a win!!!!!
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 8:30:05 PM EDT
[#4]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RockNwood:
Nice to see more examples of Russia losing the luxury of not having to protect its vast homeland and instead pulling forces from the front to protect its own cities and bases.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3449-2939838.jpg
mi-28s have radars and are about the only helo that can find the drones and are slow enough to shoot them down..

so a win is a win!!!!!
View Quote


I would be using some cheap drones to lure those guys into a SAM and manpad ambush.
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 8:31:06 PM EDT
[Last Edit: thanosnap] [#5]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By planemaker:
The price of oil isn't set by the US regardless of how the idiots in DC try to spin it
View Quote


No, the US, G7, EU and Australia really did set the price. The genius factor was that they got the insurance companies (which are all Western) to revoke insurance on ships that don't follow the price cap. Without insurance you can't sail into most most ports, plus there's the risk involved. And why pay more than Australia or Japan is paying? In fact, while the price is fixed at $60/barrel (it costs them about $40 to pull it out of the ground and $19 to ship), they've been selling off their oil reserves to so-called "friendly countries" (China and India) for closer to $30/barrel. Now there's some cheaper gray market shipping going on but that's insignificant.

Russia is an ant under our boot... we just don't want to squish it unless it bites us. We want the oil flowing. In April oil prices sunk to their lowest level recorded since the New York Mercantile Exchange began trading oil futures in 1983. Russia's oil and gas budget revenues fell by almost 36% in the Spring, by their own numbers. There's been an uptick in prices since then but it's still working.

We're crippling Russia's warmaking ability without destroying the country. Would Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinpeng be so kind if they were in our shoes?
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 8:33:06 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#6]
ISW assessment for September 1st.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-1-2023

Russian “Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky continues to highlight the impact of the lack of Russian counter-battery capabilities on Russian morale in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. Khodakovsky claimed on September 1 that Russian forces continue to suffer from a lack of counter-battery capabilities in the Novomayorske-Novodonetske-Kermenchyk area (12km to 18km southeast of Velyka Novosilka), where Khodakovsky and the “Vostok” Battalion are reportedly defending.

[15] Khodakovsky insinuated that Russian forces are experiencing extreme physical and psychological stress in this area due to constant Ukrainian artillery fire and the Russian inability to return fire.[16] Khodakovsky expressed concerns about whether distressed and exhausted Russian forces will be able to defend against a future Ukrainian offensive in this sector of the front.[17]  
View Quote


  Khodakovsky has previously highlighted similar concerns about the Russian defense in this area, although his recent comments are more negative and defeatist in tone.[18] Khodakovsky’s complaints about the lack of counter-battery capabilities in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and concerns about its impacts on Russian morale are not necessarily indicative of a wider phenomenon in the Russian defense. However, Khodakovsky’s comments likely accurately reflect the situation in his limited but important sector of the frontline as well as the situation for often neglected proxy military formations such as Khodakovsky’s Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) “Vostok” Battalion. Khodakovsky noted on August 31 that Russian forces cannot lose sight of the daily fight against Ukrainian forces while fantasizing about "burying the enemy in the future.”

[19] Khodakovsky may believe that senior Russian commanders have done exactly this by letting the situation deteriorate to the point that Russian forces may be unable to defend against future Ukrainian offensives in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.  
View Quote
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 8:34:26 PM EDT
[#7]
I’m surprised that none of the Russian helicopters hunting drones hasn’t been shot down by the Russian air defense.
What air defense doing?
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 8:37:33 PM EDT
[#8]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Fltot:
I’m surprised that none of the Russian helicopters hunting drones hasn’t been shot down by the Russian air defense.
What air defense doing?
View Quote


Force the Russian helicopters to hunt drones at night in areas where their air defense is paranoid about Ukrainian drones and I'm pretty sure we will see a friendly fire incident.
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 8:39:17 PM EDT
[#9]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


I would be using some cheap drones to lure those guys into a SAM and manpad ambush.
View Quote
A drone to the tail rotor might be enough to do the job.
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 8:39:59 PM EDT
[#10]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 4xGM300m:
It would be a nasty surprise if somebody would equip these drones with Sidewinders.


View Quote

A sidewinder is 9 feet long and weighs almost 200 pounds. Ukraine does have a very few heavy lift drones that could conceivably mount them, for instance, the Bayraktar TB2 or the drum magazine 60mm mortar drones, but definitely not the vast majority of the tactical drones could.

However, suiciding the suicide drone into the helicopter instead of a tank, truck, SPG or individual vatnik would be quite satisfactory to me.
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 8:44:50 PM EDT
[#11]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RockNwood:
Nice to see more examples of Russia losing the luxury of not having to protect its vast homeland and instead pulling forces from the front to protect its own cities and bases.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3449-2939838.jpg
mi-28s have radars and are about the only helo that can find the drones and are slow enough to shoot them down..

so a win is a win!!!!!
View Quote

I'm sure the pilots are the ones looking for any excuse to be away from the front
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 8:50:33 PM EDT
[#12]
More of this again. This was announced this morning but seems to be making its way west on carrier pigeon.

Ukraine-Russia – live: Putin puts ‘Satan II’ nuclear missile ‘on combat duty’ as Kyiv launches drone strikes

Russia has put the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missiles - nicknamed Satan II - on combat duty, the head of Russia’s space agency Roscosmos said.

The missiles are capable of carrying 10 or more nuclear warheads. In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Sarmat missiles would be deployed for combat duty “soon”.

It comes as a Ukrainian drone attacked a town in western Russia, home to one of the country’s biggest nuclear power stations, as Russian air defences intercepted drones heading toward three western regions.

Regional governors said defence systems stopped three drones in the Kursk, Belgorod and Moscow regions.

Governor Roman Starovoit said a Ukrainian drone had damaged the facade of a building in the town of Kurchatov, just a few kilometres from the Kursk nuclear power station, early on Friday.

He had earlier said there were two drones but clarified his remarks.

“There are no casualties,” Mr Starovoit said. He did not mention any potential damage to the Kursk nuclear power plant.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-counteroffensive-drone-strikes-putin-b2403066.html

Link Posted: 9/1/2023 8:57:11 PM EDT
[#13]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By thanosnap:


No, the US, G7, EU and Australia really did set the price. The genius factor was that they got the insurance companies (which are all Western) to revoke insurance on ships that don't follow the price cap. Without insurance you can't sail into most most ports, plus there's the risk involved. Nobody will pay more than the cap. Why pay more than Australia or Japan is paying? And in fact while the price is fixed at $60/barrel (it costs them about $40 to pull it out of the ground and $19 to ship), they've been selling off their oil reserves to so-called "friendly countries" (China and India) for closer to $30/barrel. Now there's some gray market shipping going on but that's insignificant.

Russia is an ant under our boot... we just don't want to squish it unless it bites us. We want the oil flowing. In April oil prices sunk to their lowest level recorded since the New York Mercantile Exchange began trading oil futures in 1983. Russia's oil and gas budget revenues fell by almost 36%, by their own numbers. There's been an uptick in prices since then but it's still working.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By thanosnap:
Originally Posted By planemaker:
The price of oil isn't set by the US regardless of how the idiots in DC try to spin it


No, the US, G7, EU and Australia really did set the price. The genius factor was that they got the insurance companies (which are all Western) to revoke insurance on ships that don't follow the price cap. Without insurance you can't sail into most most ports, plus there's the risk involved. Nobody will pay more than the cap. Why pay more than Australia or Japan is paying? And in fact while the price is fixed at $60/barrel (it costs them about $40 to pull it out of the ground and $19 to ship), they've been selling off their oil reserves to so-called "friendly countries" (China and India) for closer to $30/barrel. Now there's some gray market shipping going on but that's insignificant.

Russia is an ant under our boot... we just don't want to squish it unless it bites us. We want the oil flowing. In April oil prices sunk to their lowest level recorded since the New York Mercantile Exchange began trading oil futures in 1983. Russia's oil and gas budget revenues fell by almost 36%, by their own numbers. There's been an uptick in prices since then but it's still working.


Again, they *tried* to set the price. Then Saudi Arabia reduced production and pushed the price right back up (which they have been known to do frequently). This doesn't look like we are setting the price of anything: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil Oh, and now India, who had been buying Russian oil at a substantial discount, has decided to cut back on purchases (much to Russia's chagrin). I saw they did it but didn't see a reason stated as to why. Possibly because they see Russia as an unreliable trading partner.

The problem with the caps is that there were/are too many leaks in the system and ways around the caps. Don't forget that both China and India insure their own vessels and don't need western insurance companies. It will be interesting to see how long China and India continue to buy from Russia. At some point, they'll probably determine it's in their best interest to cut them off and then Russia will be in a pickle.
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:04:26 PM EDT
[Last Edit: thanosnap] [#14]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By planemaker:


Again, they *tried* to set the price. Then Saudi Arabia reduced production and pushed the price right back up (which they have been known to do frequently). This doesn't look like we are setting the price of anything: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil Oh, and now India, who had been buying Russian oil at a substantial discount, has decided to cut back on purchases (much to Russia's chagrin). I saw they did it but didn't see a reason stated as to why. Possibly because they see Russia as an unreliable trading partner.

The problem with the caps is that there were/are too many leaks in the system and ways around the caps. Don't forget that both China and India insure their own vessels and don't need western insurance companies. It will be interesting to see how long China and India continue to buy from Russia. At some point, they'll probably determine it's in their best interest to cut them off and then Russia will be in a pickle.
View Quote


According to Acting Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy Eric Van Nostrand a month ago, Russian data showed federal government oil revenues were nearly 50% lower in the first half of 2023 than a year earlier, and Russian oil was trading at "a significant discount" to Brent oil. Now, how much you want to believe that, it doesn't matter. The fact is if we made it $30/barrel like some Europeans and Ukraine are asking, we would see Russia's economy collapse and their govt would have to shut their doors, but it would hurt the world economy too. Russia's oil reserves just became China and India's reserves, at a steep discount.  Sooner or later they will have no more storage space to put it in.
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:08:51 PM EDT
[Last Edit: mbinky] [#15]
I just felt like posting a picture of an Abrams firing pin.

Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:10:22 PM EDT
[#16]
The mud season is fast approaching. How will that affect the Ukrainian advance?
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:14:07 PM EDT
[#17]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By mbinky:
I just felt like posting a picture of an Abrams firing pin.

https://i.postimg.cc/150cJwQD/IMG-6771.jpg
View Quote



Neat.
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:16:14 PM EDT
[#18]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
ISW assessment for September 1st.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-1-2023

View Quote


It's definitely coming for you Sasha.
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:19:56 PM EDT
[#19]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Finslayer83:


Looked like a femur
View Quote

Only counts as 1 WIA according to the BBC official casualty counter!
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:20:13 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime] [#20]




Do you know what Russian infantrymen called Russian sailors during the Russo-Japanese War?
"SAMOTOPS", because they were not capable of anything except "negative fusion".

Rear Admiral Felix MENKOV, who now commands the Crimean naval base, observing the successes of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south, decided to continue this tradition and sent us secret maps with a plan for the defense of Crimea.

We, in turn, publish documents and wait for the continuation of bright badabums at the bases of the occupiers.

#cyberResistance #cyberResistance


https://t.me/cyberResistanceUA/253
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:21:03 PM EDT
[#21]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By mbinky:
I just felt like posting a picture of an Abrams firing pin.

https://i.postimg.cc/150cJwQD/IMG-6771.jpg
View Quote
cool
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:22:00 PM EDT
[#22]
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/31/ukrainian-soldiers-complete-training-abrams-tanks-00113668

So this article says that 10 Abrams will be sent to Ukraine this month.

So you think they will be sent right to the front? I am bracing myself for the inevitable destroyed tank pics.

I am still trying to wrap my head around the value of this venture and am fearful as to what the results may be. And that was with 31 getting sent.. 10? Ugh.. Like every ruskie worth his borscht is gonna be after these things.

Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:22:34 PM EDT
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RockNwood:
Nice to see more examples of Russia losing the luxury of not having to protect its vast homeland and instead pulling forces from the front to protect its own cities and bases.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3449-2939838.jpg
mi-28s have radars and are about the only helo that can find the drones and are slow enough to shoot them down..

so a win is a win!!!!!
View Quote


Hold on..

They are going to try to takedown those cardboard r/c airplane sized drones with attack helicopters?





Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:22:56 PM EDT
[#24]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By mbinky:
I just felt like posting a picture of an Abrams firing pin.

https://i.postimg.cc/150cJwQD/IMG-6771.jpg
View Quote

[like]
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:25:42 PM EDT
[#25]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Alexein:



This guy is employed by Yale, the same Yale that published this https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2018/04/13/yale-needs-to-stop-accepting-republican-students/

Here is a quote from him "the united states needs to recognize that Russia does have legitimate security concerns we need to convey in our words and our actions that we are prepared to deal with a responsible fashion with those security concerns uh going forward and there is in fact a way that Russia can feal secure uh along with the countries of Europe uh and the united states more broadly speaking".

I rank him somewhere between a Russians Shill and a chimpanzee begging for his life.  

Russia security priorities should be,
1:STOP FUCKING YOUR PEOPLE TO DEATH!
2:STOP FUCKING YOUR neighbors TO DEATH!
3:STOP THREATENING TO destroy THE PLANET!

or how about stop stealing children, maybe stop stealing anything, stop lying, but that isn't going to happen as long as the lie that is Russian culture is allowed to continue.  Russians need to be free, and that starts with not being Russians, any appeasement is only to support the continued disease, for Russians to be Free Russia has to die otherwise Russia and Russian culture will continue to fuck the Russian people and everyone and everything they touch back to the stone age.

We were Russians once took 2 generations to get beyond the fear that they were going to find us and kill us in our sleep, two more to discover we were never Russan to begin with.
View Quote

10:10
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:26:01 PM EDT
[#26]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By thanosnap:


According to Acting Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy Eric Van Nostrand a month ago, Russian data showed federal government oil revenues were nearly 50% lower in the first half of 2023 than a year earlier, and Russian oil was trading at "a significant discount" to Brent oil. Now, how much you want to believe that, it doesn't matter. The fact is if we made it $30/barrel like Europeans are asking, we would see Russia's economy collapse and their govt would have to shut their doors, but it would hurt the world economy too. Russia's oil reserves just became China and India's reserves, at a steep discount.  Sooner or later they will have no more storage space to put it in.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By thanosnap:
Originally Posted By planemaker:


Again, they *tried* to set the price. Then Saudi Arabia reduced production and pushed the price right back up (which they have been known to do frequently). This doesn't look like we are setting the price of anything: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil Oh, and now India, who had been buying Russian oil at a substantial discount, has decided to cut back on purchases (much to Russia's chagrin). I saw they did it but didn't see a reason stated as to why. Possibly because they see Russia as an unreliable trading partner.

The problem with the caps is that there were/are too many leaks in the system and ways around the caps. Don't forget that both China and India insure their own vessels and don't need western insurance companies. It will be interesting to see how long China and India continue to buy from Russia. At some point, they'll probably determine it's in their best interest to cut them off and then Russia will be in a pickle.


According to Acting Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy Eric Van Nostrand a month ago, Russian data showed federal government oil revenues were nearly 50% lower in the first half of 2023 than a year earlier, and Russian oil was trading at "a significant discount" to Brent oil. Now, how much you want to believe that, it doesn't matter. The fact is if we made it $30/barrel like Europeans are asking, we would see Russia's economy collapse and their govt would have to shut their doors, but it would hurt the world economy too. Russia's oil reserves just became China and India's reserves, at a steep discount.  Sooner or later they will have no more storage space to put it in.


I think the actual revenue from oil that Russia is getting is lower than last year. Depending on whose numbers you believe, that appears to be a function of actually shipping a lot less. Thing is, we can't "make" it $30 or $60 or anything else because we don't set the price of oil worldwide. But, one wonders if countries like India and China are not wanting to pay "real" currency into a failing economy like Russia's. And, they've probably run out of crumbling rubles to pay with (or Russia won't take them as payment any more).
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:26:39 PM EDT
[#27]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

WTF would they do that?
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:
Originally Posted By stanprophet09:
The Dies and jigs for the F22 were destroyed after contract fulfillment. This is why we cannot get any more of them. The F35 on the other hand is still being produced.

WTF would they do that?
It doesn't work that way.

Everything is kept. Everything
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:26:44 PM EDT
[#28]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F47dzMBXYAA8n9d?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F47dzMGWYAESFBm?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F47dzMdXgAAp5Nc?format=jpg&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F47dzMAWkAAsnzn?format=jpg&name=large
Do you know what Russian infantrymen called Russian sailors during the Russo-Japanese War?
"SAMOTOPS", because they were not capable of anything except "negative fusion".

Rear Admiral Felix MENKOV, who now commands the Crimean naval base, observing the successes of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south, decided to continue this tradition and sent us secret maps with a plan for the defense of Crimea.

We, in turn, publish documents and wait for the continuation of bright badabums at the bases of the occupiers.

#cyberResistance #cyberResistance


https://t.me/cyberResistanceUA/253
View Quote

Dude, the channels you find...... <3

I try to dive down as best I can through watermarks and forwarded links.
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:28:49 PM EDT
[#29]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By yekimak:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/31/ukrainian-soldiers-complete-training-abrams-tanks-00113668

So this article says that 10 Abrams will be sent to Ukraine this month.

So you think they will be sent right to the front? I am bracing myself for the inevitable destroyed tank pics.

I am still trying to wrap my head around the value of this venture and am fearful as to what the results may be. And that was with 31 getting sent.. 10? Ugh.. Like every ruskie worth his borscht is gonna be after these things.

View Quote
I'm wondering if they might deploy them toward the rear to free up other tanks to go to the front.  
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:29:01 PM EDT
[#30]
The State Border Committee of the Republic of Belarus declares that a Polish helicopter violated the Belarusian-Polish border

The Civil Procedure Code of the Republic of Belarus published a video showing how a helicopter crosses the Belarusian-Polish border near the Polish village of Mostovlyany.

It is alleged that the video shows a Polish Mi-24 helicopter, which, according to the CPC, violated the border on September 1 and “flew up to a depth of 1200 meters into the territory of Belarus, and then returned back.”

The published video shows exactly the return of the helicopter to the territory of Poland, while in the first frame the helicopter is ≈260 meters from the border with Poland.

Later it became known that Wojciech Filimonovich, Chargé d'Affaires of Poland in Belarus, was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in connection with the incident.


https://t.me/Hajun_BY/7320

Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:30:41 PM EDT
[#31]
An Abrams is a good tank, but you need a good crew.









Oh, in my youth...(a few years ago....)
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:31:28 PM EDT
[#32]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By yekimak:

Dude, the channels you find...... <3

I try to dive down as best I can through watermarks and forwarded links.
View Quote


Thanks, I found that one through “InformNapalm”, and almost subscribed to it but then thought I’ll just hope that the same thing happens next time.

I’m trying to trim the list down, it’s getting counterproductive

Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:41:03 PM EDT
[#33]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F47dzMBXYAA8n9d?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F47dzMGWYAESFBm?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F47dzMdXgAAp5Nc?format=jpg&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F47dzMAWkAAsnzn?format=jpg&name=large
Do you know what Russian infantrymen called Russian sailors during the Russo-Japanese War?
"SAMOTOPS", because they were not capable of anything except "negative fusion".

Rear Admiral Felix MENKOV, who now commands the Crimean naval base, observing the successes of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south, decided to continue this tradition and sent us secret maps with a plan for the defense of Crimea.

We, in turn, publish documents and wait for the continuation of bright badabums at the bases of the occupiers.

#cyberResistance #cyberResistance


https://t.me/cyberResistanceUA/253
View Quote


When the GD Russkies see those masks that's going to lead to some cognitive dissonance.
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:43:18 PM EDT
[#34]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By yekimak:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/31/ukrainian-soldiers-complete-training-abrams-tanks-00113668

So this article says that 10 Abrams will be sent to Ukraine this month.

So you think they will be sent right to the front? I am bracing myself for the inevitable destroyed tank pics.

I am still trying to wrap my head around the value of this venture and am fearful as to what the results may be. And that was with 31 getting sent.. 10? Ugh.. Like every ruskie worth his borscht is gonna be after these things.

View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By yekimak:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/31/ukrainian-soldiers-complete-training-abrams-tanks-00113668

So this article says that 10 Abrams will be sent to Ukraine this month.

So you think they will be sent right to the front? I am bracing myself for the inevitable destroyed tank pics.

I am still trying to wrap my head around the value of this venture and am fearful as to what the results may be. And that was with 31 getting sent.. 10? Ugh.. Like every ruskie worth his borscht is gonna be after these things.




From ISW tonight:

Politico confirmed previously-reported numbers of refurbished US Abrams tanks set to arrive in Ukraine by mid-September. Politico confirmed that Ukraine will receive the first 10 of the 31 promised refurbished US Abrams tanks by mid-September following refurbishment in Germany, citing a US Department of Defense official and another source.[25] The US Army Europe and Africa Spokesperson Colonel Martin O’Donnell stated that the US remains committed to delivering the 31 Abrams during an unspecified timeframe in the fall.[26]

O’Donnell stated that 200 Ukrainian servicemen recently completed one of the final phases of Abrams training. Ukraine is unlikely to deploy the initial Abrams tanks (two platoons) until the entire brigade set is ready for operations.


I am also wondering if there won't be more installments of M1's after the initial 31.

Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:45:57 PM EDT
[Last Edit: mbinky] [#35]
Guess what this is.  i told them fun fact if you paint an Abrams NATO camo the colors line up every 90 degrees.  

Cool.



Besides the fact everyone showed up like they came from Red Dawn they are apparently doing ok.
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:46:20 PM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Chaingun:
It doesn't work that way.

Everything is kept. Everything
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Chaingun:
Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:
Originally Posted By stanprophet09:
The Dies and jigs for the F22 were destroyed after contract fulfillment. This is why we cannot get any more of them. The F35 on the other hand is still being produced.

WTF would they do that?
It doesn't work that way.

Everything is kept. Everything



This.  There are military storage places that look like the one from Raider's of the Lost Ark full of stuff that gets crated up, and cataloged.
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:46:41 PM EDT
[#37]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By yekimak:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/31/ukrainian-soldiers-complete-training-abrams-tanks-00113668

So this article says that 10 Abrams will be sent to Ukraine this month.

So you think they will be sent right to the front? I am bracing myself for the inevitable destroyed tank pics.

I am still trying to wrap my head around the value of this venture and am fearful as to what the results may be. And that was with 31 getting sent.. 10? Ugh.. Like every ruskie worth his borscht is gonna be after these things.

View Quote


Not if the florks have anything to say about it.


Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:48:05 PM EDT
[#38]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Bartholomew_Roberts:


When the GD Russkies see those masks that's going to lead to some cognitive dissonance.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Bartholomew_Roberts:
Originally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F47dzMBXYAA8n9d?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F47dzMGWYAESFBm?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F47dzMdXgAAp5Nc?format=jpg&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F47dzMAWkAAsnzn?format=jpg&name=large
Do you know what Russian infantrymen called Russian sailors during the Russo-Japanese War?
"SAMOTOPS", because they were not capable of anything except "negative fusion".

Rear Admiral Felix MENKOV, who now commands the Crimean naval base, observing the successes of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south, decided to continue this tradition and sent us secret maps with a plan for the defense of Crimea.

We, in turn, publish documents and wait for the continuation of bright badabums at the bases of the occupiers.

#cyberResistance #cyberResistance


https://t.me/cyberResistanceUA/253


When the GD Russkies see those masks that's going to lead to some cognitive dissonance.



lol, I thought the same thing, they went back to wearing masks?
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:49:59 PM EDT
[#39]


A resident of Buchi found a Russian banner in the garage, the man had not been home since the beginning of martial law, writes the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

The citizen turned to the police, who discovered a rubber band sandwiched between two plastic hangers. Specialists removed a dangerous find.


https://t.me/newspn/65761

Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:50:49 PM EDT
[#40]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F47dzMBXYAA8n9d?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F47dzMGWYAESFBm?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F47dzMdXgAAp5Nc?format=jpg&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F47dzMAWkAAsnzn?format=jpg&name=large
Do you know what Russian infantrymen called Russian sailors during the Russo-Japanese War?
"SAMOTOPS", because they were not capable of anything except "negative fusion".

Rear Admiral Felix MENKOV, who now commands the Crimean naval base, observing the successes of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south, decided to continue this tradition and sent us secret maps with a plan for the defense of Crimea.

We, in turn, publish documents and wait for the continuation of bright badabums at the bases of the occupiers.

#cyberResistance #cyberResistance


https://t.me/cyberResistanceUA/253
View Quote


When were those pictures taken?
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:55:59 PM EDT
[Last Edit: RockNwood] [#41]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Fltot:
I’m surprised that none of the Russian helicopters hunting drones hasn’t been shot down by the Russian air defense.
What air defense doing?
View Quote

A Ka-52 was shot down today so that might be how they hit it.

Come little bit closer…you almost have me…
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:57:22 PM EDT
[#42]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By fadedsun:


When were those pictures taken?
View Quote


Sources and methods


I kid, man I don't know

Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:57:30 PM EDT
[#43]
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 9:57:58 PM EDT
[#44]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Brok3n:

I'm sure the pilots are the ones looking for any excuse to be away from the front
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Brok3n:
Originally Posted By RockNwood:
Nice to see more examples of Russia losing the luxury of not having to protect its vast homeland and instead pulling forces from the front to protect its own cities and bases.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3449-2939838.jpg
mi-28s have radars and are about the only helo that can find the drones and are slow enough to shoot them down..

so a win is a win!!!!!

I'm sure the pilots are the ones looking for any excuse to be away from the front

Oh yeah I was chasing drones heading for the Volga. Time sure flies when I’m concentrating on the hunt. 😁
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 10:03:09 PM EDT
[#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 4xGM300m:


It would be a nasty surprise if somebody would equip these drones with Sidewinders.



View Quote


A quick search shows those things weighing 188lbs. It's gonna take a big drone to carry one very far.
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 10:03:43 PM EDT
[#46]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:

Only counts as 1 WIA according to the BBC official casualty counter!
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:
Originally Posted By Finslayer83:


Looked like a femur

Only counts as 1 WIA according to the BBC official casualty counter!

No one was able to confirm an independent eye witness account, or a heart beat or breathing due to circumstances, so we have to count this as a probable WIA.
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 10:08:19 PM EDT
[#47]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By yekimak:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/31/ukrainian-soldiers-complete-training-abrams-tanks-00113668

So this article says that 10 Abrams will be sent to Ukraine this month.

So you think they will be sent right to the front? I am bracing myself for the inevitable destroyed tank pics.

I am still trying to wrap my head around the value of this venture and am fearful as to what the results may be. And that was with 31 getting sent.. 10? Ugh.. Like every ruskie worth his borscht is gonna be after these things.

View Quote

Probably the best use would be with a plausible feint like the Marine landing force in the Gulf War chug around the harbor on the right threatening to land, while the Army armor does a long left hook and smashed them looking the wrong way.
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 10:09:15 PM EDT
[#48]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By sierra-def:


Hold on..

They are going to try to takedown those cardboard r/c airplane sized drones with attack helicopters?





View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By sierra-def:
Originally Posted By RockNwood:
Nice to see more examples of Russia losing the luxury of not having to protect its vast homeland and instead pulling forces from the front to protect its own cities and bases.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3449-2939838.jpg
mi-28s have radars and are about the only helo that can find the drones and are slow enough to shoot them down..

so a win is a win!!!!!


Hold on..

They are going to try to takedown those cardboard r/c airplane sized drones with attack helicopters?






When the oligarchs can’t sleep you do what ya gotta do! 😂
Link Posted: 9/1/2023 10:10:32 PM EDT
[#49]
Bloomberg: The Ministry of Defense lured Prigozhin out of Africa to Russia on the eve of his death

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner PMC who died in a plane crash near Tver, faced pressure from the Ministry of Defense a few weeks before his death, Bloomberg reports, citing a source close to the Kremlin. According to the interlocutor of the agency, Wagner structures were banned from using military aircraft of the Ministry of Defense for flights, and then the Khmeimim airbase in Syria, where PMC fighters appeared in 2015, was closed for them, before the official introduction of Russian troops.

As a result, the logistics of the Wagner structures were under threat, and this is what forced Prigozhin from Africa to go to Russia, a source told Bloomberg. According to him, the head of Wagner flew to Moscow in order to resolve problems with the Ministry of Defense. But on August 23, his business jet crashed 50 kilometers from Vladimir Putin's residence in Valdai, killing seven passengers and three crew members on board.

What happened to Prigozhin is not an accident, but, most likely, punishment for the June rebellion, sources in the Russian government told The Moscow Times earlier. According to them, the head of Wagner was considered a threat to the regime, as well as his PMC, which the Kremlin does not plan to keep in its current form.


https://t.me/moscowtimes_ru/15434



One in five people in Russia considered the murder of Prigozhin to be Putin's revenge

Almost all Russians (89%) know about the death of the founder of the private military company (PMC) Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin, but they do not have a common opinion about the reasons for the crash of the plane in which the leader of the mercenaries was. According to a survey by the Levada Center, just over a quarter of respondents (26%) are inclined to believe that it was a tragic accident, and one in five (20%) believe in the version of revenge by the authorities for the June rebellion.

Approximately 16% of those polled believe that Prigozhin himself staged a disaster and is actually alive. Almost the same number - about 14% - believe that foreign intelligence agencies are behind the attack.

The version of the accident tends to be accepted by those who received information about Prigozhin's death without details (29%), representatives of the older generation (31%) and those who trust television as a source of information (35%), as well as those who approve of the president's activities (29%).

Respondents who are inclined to blame the authorities, as a rule, looked for detailed information about what happened (28%), trusted Internet publications (30%), Telegram channels (28%) and social networks (25%) as sources of news, and at the same time disapproved activities of the president (46%). Young people aged 18 to 24 are less inclined to the version of a terrorist attack by Western intelligence agencies (9%) than representatives of other age groups (14-16%). Among middle-aged people (25-39 years old), one in five (21%) believes that Prigozhin staged the plane crash and is actually alive.

The number of respondents who approve of the activities of Yevgeny Prigozhin has increased since June (39% and 34% respectively). The share of those who disapprove of his activities remained practically unchanged and amounted to 37%.


https://t.me/moscowtimes_ru/15441

Link Posted: 9/1/2023 10:12:54 PM EDT
[#50]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By planemaker:


I think the actual revenue from oil that Russia is getting is lower than last year. Depending on whose numbers you believe, that appears to be a function of actually shipping a lot less. Thing is, we can't "make" it $30 or $60 or anything else because we don't set the price of oil worldwide. But, one wonders if countries like India and China are not wanting to pay "real" currency into a failing economy like Russia's. And, they've probably run out of crumbling rubles to pay with (or Russia won't take them as payment any more).
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By planemaker:
Originally Posted By thanosnap:
Originally Posted By planemaker:


Again, they *tried* to set the price. Then Saudi Arabia reduced production and pushed the price right back up (which they have been known to do frequently). This doesn't look like we are setting the price of anything: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil Oh, and now India, who had been buying Russian oil at a substantial discount, has decided to cut back on purchases (much to Russia's chagrin). I saw they did it but didn't see a reason stated as to why. Possibly because they see Russia as an unreliable trading partner.

The problem with the caps is that there were/are too many leaks in the system and ways around the caps. Don't forget that both China and India insure their own vessels and don't need western insurance companies. It will be interesting to see how long China and India continue to buy from Russia. At some point, they'll probably determine it's in their best interest to cut them off and then Russia will be in a pickle.


According to Acting Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy Eric Van Nostrand a month ago, Russian data showed federal government oil revenues were nearly 50% lower in the first half of 2023 than a year earlier, and Russian oil was trading at "a significant discount" to Brent oil. Now, how much you want to believe that, it doesn't matter. The fact is if we made it $30/barrel like Europeans are asking, we would see Russia's economy collapse and their govt would have to shut their doors, but it would hurt the world economy too. Russia's oil reserves just became China and India's reserves, at a steep discount.  Sooner or later they will have no more storage space to put it in.


I think the actual revenue from oil that Russia is getting is lower than last year. Depending on whose numbers you believe, that appears to be a function of actually shipping a lot less. Thing is, we can't "make" it $30 or $60 or anything else because we don't set the price of oil worldwide. But, one wonders if countries like India and China are not wanting to pay "real" currency into a failing economy like Russia's. And, they've probably run out of crumbling rubles to pay with (or Russia won't take them as payment any more).

Supposedly we coerced/bribed Iran to increase production so it would be less than Russia. Coincidentally, Putin recently took away many of the oil discounts because the Ruble is rubble. So China and Iran switched to the cheaper Iranian supply. Great friends to Stronk Stalin, yes?
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