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Posted: 10/27/2021 8:27:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: The_Beer_Slayer]
It says it's been moved, but the link just takes me to the Community page. What gives?


This is now the active "shit (might be) is definitely happening in Ukraine" thread.

News links, thanks to BerettaGuy:
Originally Posted By BerettaGuy:
LINKS TO UKRAINIAN NEWS SOURCES IN ENGLISH

Kyiv Post

Ukrainian News

UKRInform

EUROMAIDEN PRESS

New Voice of Ukraine

Kyiv Independent

Ukraine World

InterFax Ukraine

UATV

Ukrainian Journal

Official Website of the President of Ukraine

Ukrainian Ministry of Defense

Save these links. I can't post all the headlines like I've done in the past - too much news and too often.
View Quote


Please @ me with additional stuff to be added here. I don't currently have time to properly curate this thread otherwise.

New news link c/o berettaguy:

Ukrainian Pravda
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/

Stop fake, anti - disinformation site:
https://www.stopfake.org/en/main/
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 7:44:16 PM EDT
[#1]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:

Wait I thought you said they could buy in dead,  is that no longer a hard currency?
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By dillydilly:
Originally Posted By R0N:

I have a feeling I know quite a bit more about how war works than most

And you may want to look up lend lease, because some nations are still making payments on that

I’m aware of what lend-lease is. Since Ukraine is poor with no money, let’s hear your suggestions?

Wait I thought you said they could buy in dead,  is that no longer a hard currency?


I lost count of how many times it has been asked. What do you suggest should be done? We are in this shit now. Do we (US/NATO/Europe) wipe our shoe off, or keep stepping in the same shit?
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 7:44:17 PM EDT
[#2]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:

I have a feeling I know quite a bit more about how war works than most

And you may want to look up lend lease, because some nations are still making payments on that
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By dillydilly:
Originally Posted By R0N:


That sounds good and may make a good bumper sticker but in the real world you cannot trade dead Ukrainians for new control and steering units for M31s, IMX 101 for M795s, seekers for JAVs etc  we now need to buy.

That’s not how war works. As the poster above me said, Ukraine better align with us. They have nautical resources and a work force that can be used to cover that.

I have a feeling I know quite a bit more about how war works than most

And you may want to look up lend lease, because some nations are still making payments on that


So what EXACTLY do you think the US government should be doing?

You keep beating the same bushes, but you don't seem to actually get to a point.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 7:49:04 PM EDT
[#3]
Let it die on the vine like the sunflowers are (no vine). This is polluting the thread,
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 7:49:17 PM EDT
[#4]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AROKIE:

Sweet!
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Speaking of cool shit that arrived. Between reading this thread, I have been working on this for a couple days. Still have a lot of the finishing touches to do, mirrors, exhaust, etc. 127 pieces is a lot for this little model. Made in Ukraine.

Done solely for "research" purposes and finding sanity. Air raid siren has been really quiet. Makes me feel like something is in the works.

Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 7:50:40 PM EDT
[#5]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Banditman:
Let it die on the vine like the sunflowers are (no vine). This is polluting the thread,
View Quote


Yes. Perhaps it is time to just agree to disagree?
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 7:51:57 PM EDT
[#6]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By dillydilly:

I said what I said. Now let’s bear your alternative. Quit being facetious.
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By dillydilly:
Originally Posted By R0N:

Wait I thought you said they could buy in dead,  is that no longer a hard currency?

I said what I said. Now let’s bear your alternative. Quit being facetious.

It is a bit ironic the person who uses a facetious statement now says being facetious

I have already given two mechanisms that could be used to pay for our weapons, either modern lend-lease or a treaty to guarantee the US mineral rights post-war.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 7:52:40 PM EDT
[#7]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Easterner:


Speaking of cool shit that arrived. Between reading this thread, I have been working on this for a couple days. Still have a lot of the finishing touches to do, mirrors, exhaust, etc. 127 pieces is a lot for this little model. Made in Ukraine.

Done solely for "research" purposes and finding sanity. Air raid siren has been really quiet. Makes me feel like something is in the works.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/526834/IMG_20221122_013605_jpg-2609355.JPG
View Quote


Nice!
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 7:54:30 PM EDT
[#8]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:

How do we bill Ukraine?   Or is your proposition that we exchange our arms for mineral rights on captured territory?
View Quote

We get a portion of the frozen russian assets to pay for them. Ukraine gets the rest for reconstruction. Fuck russia, they started it, let them pay for it.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 7:55:31 PM EDT
[#9]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By postpostban:


So what EXACTLY do you think the US government should be doing?

You keep beating the same bushes, but you don't seem to actually get to a point.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By postpostban:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By dillydilly:
Originally Posted By R0N:


That sounds good and may make a good bumper sticker but in the real world you cannot trade dead Ukrainians for new control and steering units for M31s, IMX 101 for M795s, seekers for JAVs etc  we now need to buy.

That’s not how war works. As the poster above me said, Ukraine better align with us. They have nautical resources and a work force that can be used to cover that.

I have a feeling I know quite a bit more about how war works than most

And you may want to look up lend lease, because some nations are still making payments on that


So what EXACTLY do you think the US government should be doing?

You keep beating the same bushes, but you don't seem to actually get to a point.

As this has evolved, it can pretty obvious that the supposed threat we needed to defend against the US  was not there, why invest the treasures for someone else war.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 7:55:32 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CharlieR] [#10]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:


This is what actually pisses off many of the people in my circles of current and retired military and IC.  Most of are good with killing Russians but are not under illusion this war will result in a more secure international environment for the US, nor do we see that in the end the small expenditures up front will save any money.   The small amount being paid now is a down payment  on a massive long term cost at a time when we cannot afford it.

It is kind of weird to those of us who have been the security state our entire lives at the level of support being shown by those outside of it for it and its indicator how effective IO can be at swaying populations there are so many talking points being spewed by those supporting “the cause.”
View Quote


I understand your point, but most of the people that I know that are current and retired mil and IC feel the opposite; if the Russians get thumped hard enough to deter the Chinese then we can deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which is a bargain.

If you don't like this fight then you need to have a word with the Marine Corps and the Navy as their plans for the Pacific will cost far greater then this, and deterring the Chinese with US weapons and Ukrainian fighters is still a bargain.

I've said this before but this seems like a policy consistent with Kennan and NSC-68, and Im skeptical of anyone who doesn't like what's going on who hasn't refuted that or acknowledged same.

This post appears to me to be a combination appeal to authority fallacy and bandwagon fallacy.

The Chinese are a big nation thinking about how to invade a small adjacent neighbor, supported by the US.  If they see Russia getting completely throttled, we deter them.  So a small amount of US weapons and Ukrainian soldiers is actually winning one war and deterring a second.  

I am more critical of the US taking very effective weapons that would be very effective against Chicom invaders and not putting them on display.  We should be showing the world how great ATACMS is and then giving the Taiwanese some.  And I don't think you want to live in a world without their semiconductors.  

I'm not convinced at all that the gold plated Department of the Navy Pacific strategies are well thought out other then "GWOT is over, my turn to spend some cash."

I think the Ukrainian campaign will do more to deter China then some of the other waste, like LCS, and just about everything GEN Berger is wasting money on.

We can agree to disagree. I think you are very much incorrect but don't question your loyalty.

A dillemma is a choice between two bad options.  Professionally, this war is a gift.  We could be doing a better job of taking advantage of it, given the profound limitations of this admninstartion they are better then expected.  Not a perfect showing.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:00:23 PM EDT
[Last Edit: dillydilly] [#11]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:

It is a bit ironic the person who uses a facetious statement now says being facetious

I have already given two mechanisms that could be used to pay for our weapons, either modern lend-lease or a treaty to guarantee the US mineral rights post-war.
View Quote

I think you don’t know what the word means. But carry on.

Regarding the second part of your reply, there you go. End of convo.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:00:26 PM EDT
[#12]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:

As this has evolved, it can pretty obvious that the supposed threat we needed to defend against the US  was not there, why invest the treasures for someone else war.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By postpostban:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By dillydilly:
Originally Posted By R0N:


That sounds good and may make a good bumper sticker but in the real world you cannot trade dead Ukrainians for new control and steering units for M31s, IMX 101 for M795s, seekers for JAVs etc  we now need to buy.

That’s not how war works. As the poster above me said, Ukraine better align with us. They have nautical resources and a work force that can be used to cover that.

I have a feeling I know quite a bit more about how war works than most

And you may want to look up lend lease, because some nations are still making payments on that


So what EXACTLY do you think the US government should be doing?

You keep beating the same bushes, but you don't seem to actually get to a point.

As this has evolved, it can pretty obvious that the supposed threat we needed to defend against the US  was not there, why invest the treasures for someone else war.

Multiple times, people have rebutted your argument that the Russians aren't a threat because their conventional forces are weaker than ours, yet you have ignored those posts and continue posting the same argument.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:01:34 PM EDT
[#13]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By CharlieR:


I understand your point, but most of the people that I know that are current and retired mil and IC feel the opposite; if the Russians get thumped hard enough to deter the Chinese then we can deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which is a bargain.

If you don't like this fight then you need to have a word with the Marine Corps and the Navy as their plans for the Pacific will cost far greater then this, and deterring the Chinese with US weapons and Ukrainian fighters is still a bargain.

This post appears to me to be a combination appeal to authority fallacy and bandwagon fallacy.

The Chinese are a big nation thinking about how to invade a small adjacent neighbor, supported by the US.  If they see Russia getting completely throttled, we deter them.  So a small amount of US weapons and Ukrainian soldiers is actually winning one war and deterring a second.  

I am more critical of the US taking very effective weapons that would be very effective against Chicom invaders and not putting them on display.  We should be showing the world how great ATACMS is and then giving the Taiwanese some.  And I don't think you want to live in a world without their semiconductors.  

I'm not convinced at all that the gold plated Department of the Navy Pacific strategies are well thought out other then "GWOT is over, my turn to spend some cash."

I think the Ukrainian campaign will do more to deter China then some of the other waste, like LCS, and just about everything GEN Berger is wasting money on.

We can agree to disagree. I think you are very much incorrect but don't question your loyalty.

A dillemma is a choice between two bad options.  Professionally, this war is a gift.  We could be doing a better job of taking advantage of it, given the profound limitations of this admninstartion they are better then expected.  Not a perfect showing.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By CharlieR:
Originally Posted By R0N:


This is what actually pisses off many of the people in my circles of current and retired military and IC.  Most of are good with killing Russians but are not under illusion this war will result in a more secure international environment for the US, nor do we see that in the end the small expenditures up front will save any money.   The small amount being paid now is a down payment  on a massive long term cost at a time when we cannot afford it.

It is kind of weird to those of us who have been the security state our entire lives at the level of support being shown by those outside of it for it and its indicator how effective IO can be at swaying populations there are so many talking points being spewed by those supporting “the cause.”


I understand your point, but most of the people that I know that are current and retired mil and IC feel the opposite; if the Russians get thumped hard enough to deter the Chinese then we can deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which is a bargain.

If you don't like this fight then you need to have a word with the Marine Corps and the Navy as their plans for the Pacific will cost far greater then this, and deterring the Chinese with US weapons and Ukrainian fighters is still a bargain.

This post appears to me to be a combination appeal to authority fallacy and bandwagon fallacy.

The Chinese are a big nation thinking about how to invade a small adjacent neighbor, supported by the US.  If they see Russia getting completely throttled, we deter them.  So a small amount of US weapons and Ukrainian soldiers is actually winning one war and deterring a second.  

I am more critical of the US taking very effective weapons that would be very effective against Chicom invaders and not putting them on display.  We should be showing the world how great ATACMS is and then giving the Taiwanese some.  And I don't think you want to live in a world without their semiconductors.  

I'm not convinced at all that the gold plated Department of the Navy Pacific strategies are well thought out other then "GWOT is over, my turn to spend some cash."

I think the Ukrainian campaign will do more to deter China then some of the other waste, like LCS, and just about everything GEN Berger is wasting money on.

We can agree to disagree. I think you are very much incorrect but don't question your loyalty.

A dillemma is a choice between two bad options.  Professionally, this war is a gift.  We could be doing a better job of taking advantage of it, given the profound limitations of this admninstartion they are better then expected.  Not a perfect showing.

Russia and China have always been allies of convenience, and a weakened Russia actually shores up their flank.  Additionally the PRC sees the effort required to stop what amounts a regional bulky is heavily taxing the US when it comes to some of the key munitions for their fight this will also emboldened them.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:02:48 PM EDT
[#14]
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:03:56 PM EDT
[#15]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:

How do we bill Ukraine?   Or is your proposition that we exchange our arms for mineral rights on captured territory?
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By lorazepam:
Originally Posted By R0N:

I understand the tendency of people to become emotionally involved in a cause or in the case of the Ukraine war I know a lot of people are taking their ancestry and heritage into account.

What I said multiple times is, I think the analysis of the situation should be done as unemotional and without passion as possible and from my perspective, with a view to what is in Americas best interest.   And I am not sure that people who are allowing their ancestral biases to slant views are doing that.  

It the simple things like acknowledging the various things that happen in the war, happen, instead they make themselves seem stupid by sticking their fingers in their ears and saying that it’s not happening when anyone who has experience in a combat zone knows they happen.

I am guilty of letting my emotions feed into my thoughts on this. I served at a time when we had basically 400,000 troops in Europe to counter the soviet threat. Plus all the armor, artillery, aircraft, munitions and support structure. We paid this for years, plus the training, practice, and transport of all of it.
What I see happening now is the final flush of that turd and getting the bargain of the century to do it. I get that it is a dramatically different military now, but from this old russia hating old man's eyes it sure seems like a bargain. We get to turn over old stocks, replace with new and bill Ukraine (russia) for it. We get to test new stuff, and evaluate other military designs in a same use environment.
We can showcase our stuff, and get contracts for it from other nations.
I guess I don't get that we are supposed to be prepared to eventually counter this threat, and there should be ample supply of munitions to do so, as well as counter threats in asia. That's the whole point of financing a standing military, isn't it?

How do we bill Ukraine?   Or is your proposition that we exchange our arms for mineral rights on captured territory?


That would be one way of re-filling our Strategic Petroleum Reserve that POTATOUS sold off, wouldn't it?
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:04:09 PM EDT
[#16]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast:

Multiple times, people have rebutted your argument that the Russians aren't a threat because their conventional forces are weaker than ours, yet you have ignored those posts and continue posting the same argument.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By postpostban:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By dillydilly:
Originally Posted By R0N:


That sounds good and may make a good bumper sticker but in the real world you cannot trade dead Ukrainians for new control and steering units for M31s, IMX 101 for M795s, seekers for JAVs etc  we now need to buy.

That’s not how war works. As the poster above me said, Ukraine better align with us. They have nautical resources and a work force that can be used to cover that.

I have a feeling I know quite a bit more about how war works than most

And you may want to look up lend lease, because some nations are still making payments on that


So what EXACTLY do you think the US government should be doing?

You keep beating the same bushes, but you don't seem to actually get to a point.

As this has evolved, it can pretty obvious that the supposed threat we needed to defend against the US  was not there, why invest the treasures for someone else war.

Multiple times, people have rebutted your argument that the Russians aren't a threat because their conventional forces are weaker than ours, yet you have ignored those posts and continue posting the same argument.


Because for the Ukrainians are proving they were not a conventional threat and the only thing being attracted.  Do you think is war is going to lower the cyber or nuclear threat?  
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:04:34 PM EDT
[#17]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By PMB1086:
View Quote


Yeah Israel isn't going to allow Iran to start stirring up shit without some sort of consequence.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:04:41 PM EDT
[#18]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By planemaker:


That would be one way of re-filling our Strategic Petroleum Reserve that POTATOUS sold off, wouldn't it?
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By planemaker:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By lorazepam:
Originally Posted By R0N:

I understand the tendency of people to become emotionally involved in a cause or in the case of the Ukraine war I know a lot of people are taking their ancestry and heritage into account.

What I said multiple times is, I think the analysis of the situation should be done as unemotional and without passion as possible and from my perspective, with a view to what is in Americas best interest.   And I am not sure that people who are allowing their ancestral biases to slant views are doing that.  

It the simple things like acknowledging the various things that happen in the war, happen, instead they make themselves seem stupid by sticking their fingers in their ears and saying that it’s not happening when anyone who has experience in a combat zone knows they happen.

I am guilty of letting my emotions feed into my thoughts on this. I served at a time when we had basically 400,000 troops in Europe to counter the soviet threat. Plus all the armor, artillery, aircraft, munitions and support structure. We paid this for years, plus the training, practice, and transport of all of it.
What I see happening now is the final flush of that turd and getting the bargain of the century to do it. I get that it is a dramatically different military now, but from this old russia hating old man's eyes it sure seems like a bargain. We get to turn over old stocks, replace with new and bill Ukraine (russia) for it. We get to test new stuff, and evaluate other military designs in a same use environment.
We can showcase our stuff, and get contracts for it from other nations.
I guess I don't get that we are supposed to be prepared to eventually counter this threat, and there should be ample supply of munitions to do so, as well as counter threats in asia. That's the whole point of financing a standing military, isn't it?

How do we bill Ukraine?   Or is your proposition that we exchange our arms for mineral rights on captured territory?


That would be one way of re-filling our Strategic Petroleum Reserve that POTATOUS sold off, wouldn't it?

At least that is a plan and make sense
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:06:53 PM EDT
[#19]
Can you guys please stop arguing or take it to IM. You're thread sliding and making it hard to read the thread.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:13:17 PM EDT
[#20]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History

How much did that cost you?  I could have probably gotten one if I had combined all the separate donations I've given into one.  (Not that I have any regrets about that)

I imagine they are very much in demand.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:13:20 PM EDT
[#21]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:


Because for the Ukrainians are proving they were not a conventional threat and the only thing being attracted.  Do you think is war is going to lower the cyber or nuclear threat?  
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By postpostban:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By dillydilly:
Originally Posted By R0N:


That sounds good and may make a good bumper sticker but in the real world you cannot trade dead Ukrainians for new control and steering units for M31s, IMX 101 for M795s, seekers for JAVs etc  we now need to buy.

That’s not how war works. As the poster above me said, Ukraine better align with us. They have nautical resources and a work force that can be used to cover that.

I have a feeling I know quite a bit more about how war works than most

And you may want to look up lend lease, because some nations are still making payments on that


So what EXACTLY do you think the US government should be doing?

You keep beating the same bushes, but you don't seem to actually get to a point.

As this has evolved, it can pretty obvious that the supposed threat we needed to defend against the US  was not there, why invest the treasures for someone else war.

Multiple times, people have rebutted your argument that the Russians aren't a threat because their conventional forces are weaker than ours, yet you have ignored those posts and continue posting the same argument.


Because for the Ukrainians are proving they were not a conventional threat and the only thing being attracted.  Do you think is war is going to lower the cyber or nuclear threat?  


Yes. First, the Russians won't be able to afford to maintain their nuclear forces at anywhere close to where they had been. Second, the cyber threat is being (and has already been) dramatically reduced by the fleeing of cyber-capable young people away from Russia to keep from getting thrown into a meat grinder.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:14:42 PM EDT
[#22]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:


Because for the Ukrainians are proving they were not a conventional threat and the only thing being attracted.  Do you think is war is going to lower the cyber or nuclear threat?  
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By postpostban:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By dillydilly:
Originally Posted By R0N:


That sounds good and may make a good bumper sticker but in the real world you cannot trade dead Ukrainians for new control and steering units for M31s, IMX 101 for M795s, seekers for JAVs etc  we now need to buy.

That’s not how war works. As the poster above me said, Ukraine better align with us. They have nautical resources and a work force that can be used to cover that.

I have a feeling I know quite a bit more about how war works than most

And you may want to look up lend lease, because some nations are still making payments on that


So what EXACTLY do you think the US government should be doing?

You keep beating the same bushes, but you don't seem to actually get to a point.

As this has evolved, it can pretty obvious that the supposed threat we needed to defend against the US  was not there, why invest the treasures for someone else war.

Multiple times, people have rebutted your argument that the Russians aren't a threat because their conventional forces are weaker than ours, yet you have ignored those posts and continue posting the same argument.


Because for the Ukrainians are proving they were not a conventional threat and the only thing being attracted.  Do you think is war is going to lower the cyber or nuclear threat?  

No, I don't think that. What I do think is, the Russians' ability to do things like their 2015 intervention in Syria, use Wagner in Latin America and Africa, cozy up with the Saudis and other Gulf States, sell weapons to the third world, etc. is going to be significantly hindered as a result of sanctions, massive manpower and material losses, and the world seeing how badly lots of Russia's equipment has performed.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:15:08 PM EDT
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:

As this has evolved, it can pretty obvious that the supposed threat we needed to defend against the US  was not there, why invest the treasures for someone else war.
View Quote

We talked them into disarming, allowed russia to walk in free and clear after they kicked out the russian puppet govt. Refused to help them with arms, Trump sent limited bits. We neuter them with treaties, refuse to help them rearm after they take it in the ass yet again by russia. Now russia openly states they are going genocidal on Ukraine, violate pretty much any human rights they please, commit war crimes, and genocide, and the beacon of the free world should just mind their own business?
It's a fucking shame that none of these people were speaking out when we wasted 20 years, lives and treasure on a bunch of inbred goat fucking retards who hated us and didn't want us there. I took a lot of shit for saying it would be a mistake to go into iraq.
Now, a country that wants to emulate western democracy and capitalism, and has the potential to be an economic power in europe, and truly want self determination, and everyone wants to turn their backs. I don't get it.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:15:24 PM EDT
[#24]


They got one of Russia’s few recovery vehicles.


Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:15:51 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CharlieR] [#25]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:

Russia and China have always been allies of convenience, and a weakened Russia actually shores up their flank.  Additionally the PRC sees the effort required to stop what amounts a regional bulky is heavily taxing the US when it comes to some of the key munitions for their fight this will also emboldened them.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:

Russia and China have always been allies of convenience, and a weakened Russia actually shores up their flank.  Additionally the PRC sees the effort required to stop what amounts a regional bulky is heavily taxing the US when it comes to some of the key munitions for their fight this will also emboldened them.



Additionally the PRC sees the effort required to stop what amounts a regional bulky is heavily taxing the US when it comes to some of the key munitions for their fight this will also emboldened them.


That's your opinion, you're entitled to it. Supporting documentation?

Deterrence theory rests on three elements:

Certainty: reduce uncertainty that the response is forthcoming
Celerity:  swiftness of response
Severity:  Degree of response

I've posted this before, power is will times capability.

When I look at variables of power, will, capability, certainty, celerity, severity, I think China is more deterred then they used to be. If you think they are more likely to invade this tyear then last AFTER watching western speed, weapons, and resolve, I need to see some supporting documentation.

I don't think it is a historical reality that any nation, let alone a world power, has burned through so much ammo that it incentivizes an adversary response. Its never happened.  We have FAR FAR more to lose by letting Russia thump the Ukrainians and undermine deterrence theory to save ammo.  This is illogical.

And by the way, even if I agreed with you, and I don't, I don't think the munitions we are burning through, 155mm and GLMRs, is what we'd need to defend Taiwan, which is probably cruise missiles and air power....maybe the USN will get in it, and they have nothing to do with this one. Neither has the USAF.  Apples and oranges and lemons and pears.

But Id be willing to spend money to increase deterrence rather then the probability the Chinese will send some CVNs to the bottom of the Pacific in a war that we really want to deter, not fight.



Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:17:22 PM EDT
[#26]
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:17:26 PM EDT
[#27]
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Originally Posted By planemaker:


Yes. First, the Russians won't be able to afford to maintain their nuclear forces at anywhere close to where they had been. Second, the cyber threat is being (and has already been) dramatically reduced by the fleeing of cyber-capable young people away from Russia to keep from getting thrown into a meat grinder.
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Originally Posted By planemaker:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By postpostban:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By dillydilly:
Originally Posted By R0N:


That sounds good and may make a good bumper sticker but in the real world you cannot trade dead Ukrainians for new control and steering units for M31s, IMX 101 for M795s, seekers for JAVs etc  we now need to buy.

That’s not how war works. As the poster above me said, Ukraine better align with us. They have nautical resources and a work force that can be used to cover that.

I have a feeling I know quite a bit more about how war works than most

And you may want to look up lend lease, because some nations are still making payments on that


So what EXACTLY do you think the US government should be doing?

You keep beating the same bushes, but you don't seem to actually get to a point.

As this has evolved, it can pretty obvious that the supposed threat we needed to defend against the US  was not there, why invest the treasures for someone else war.

Multiple times, people have rebutted your argument that the Russians aren't a threat because their conventional forces are weaker than ours, yet you have ignored those posts and continue posting the same argument.


Because for the Ukrainians are proving they were not a conventional threat and the only thing being attracted.  Do you think is war is going to lower the cyber or nuclear threat?  


Yes. First, the Russians won't be able to afford to maintain their nuclear forces at anywhere close to where they had been. Second, the cyber threat is being (and has already been) dramatically reduced by the fleeing of cyber-capable young people away from Russia to keep from getting thrown into a meat grinder.

Very good points.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:17:56 PM EDT
[Last Edit: grambosc] [#28]
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Originally Posted By lorazepam:

We talked them into disarming, allowed russia to walk in free and clear after they kicked out the russian puppet govt. Refused to help them with arms, Trump sent limited bits. We neuter them with treaties, refuse to help them rearm after they take it in the ass yet again by russia. Now russia openly states they are going genocidal on Ukraine, violate pretty much any human rights they please, commit war crimes, and genocide, and the beacon of the free world should just mind their own business?
It's a fucking shame that none of these people were speaking out when we wasted 20 years, lives and treasure on a bunch of inbred goat fucking retards who hated us and didn't want us there. I took a lot of shit for saying it would be a mistake to go into iraq.
Now, a country that wants to emulate western democracy and capitalism, and has the potential to be an economic power in europe, and truly want self determination, and everyone wants to turn their backs. I don't get it.
View Quote



Every word of this nailed it  

And we need to make it right.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:22:05 PM EDT
[#29]
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Originally Posted By lorazepam:

We talked them into disarming, allowed russia to walk in free and clear after they kicked out the russian puppet govt. Refused to help them with arms, Trump sent limited bits. We neuter them with treaties, refuse to help them rearm after they take it in the ass yet again by russia. Now russia openly states they are going genocidal on Ukraine, violate pretty much any human rights they please, commit war crimes, and genocide, and the beacon of the free world should just mind their own business?
It's a fucking shame that none of these people were speaking out when we wasted 20 years, lives and treasure on a bunch of inbred goat fucking retards who hated us and didn't want us there. I took a lot of shit for saying it would be a mistake to go into iraq.
Now, a country that wants to emulate western democracy and capitalism, and has the potential to be an economic power in europe, and truly want self determination, and everyone wants to turn their backs. I don't get it.
View Quote


Nice post
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:24:25 PM EDT
[Last Edit: gentlemanfarmer] [#30]
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Originally Posted By R0N:

I understand the tendency of people to become emotionally involved in a cause or in the case of the Ukraine war I know a lot of people are taking their ancestry and heritage into account.

What I said multiple times is, I think the analysis of the situation should be done as unemotional and without passion as possible and from my perspective, with a view to what is in Americas best interest.   And I am not sure that people who are allowing their ancestral biases to slant views are doing that.  

It the simple things like acknowledging the various things that happen in the war, happen, instead they make themselves seem stupid by sticking their fingers in their ears and saying that it’s not happening when anyone who has experience in a combat zone knows they happen.
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Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By AROKIE:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By IEC:
I don't care if we spend $1T total in military aid to Ukraine. Our current expenditures are reaping 2-3x in destroyed Russian equipment, not even counting the damage to Russian manpower and training for DECADES to come.

What's more, we're sending 1-2 generations (or more) old American equipment that would otherwise by and large be destined for demil or long term storage. So we save maintenance and demil costs.

But here's the real icing on the cake: The world is seeing in real-time that even 1980s era American equipment is excellent and trouncing anything the Russians can field. This will drive hundreds of billions in arms purchasing from AMERICAN industry which means more AMERICAN manufacturing jobs.

This is the very definition of a bargain.

As far as I'm concerned, any Congress critter advocating for ending military aid to Ukraine should be investigated for ties to the Kremlin.


This is what actually pisses off many of the people in my circles of current and retired military and IC.  Most of are good with killing Russians but are not under illusion this war will result in a more secure international environment for the US, nor do we see that in the end the small expenditures up front will save any money.   The small amount being paid now is a down payment  on a massive long term cost at a time when we cannot afford it.

It is kind of weird to those of us who have been the security state our entire lives at the level of support being shown by those outside of it for it and its indicator how effective IO can be at swaying populations there are so many talking points being spewed by those supporting “the cause.”


So your saying we should cut our losses??


What I have been saying is that a difference of opinion does not equate to supporting Putin, being an agent of his, or being influenced by Russian propaganda.  

What is most disappointing to me is for years we criticized the left for their tactics only to see many of those who are on the right doing the exact same thing, but instead of “trust the science” and “that is racists” they are using “Russian propaganda” or “Putin Puppet”.

I'd be very surprised if anyone here thinks your take is "Russian propaganda" or you are a "Putin Puppet". Same with the folks that have been consistent in their messaging about fiscal responsibility (not the ones that just discovered it after 4 years of an R doubling Obama's spending). I will flatly say it, anyone saying that is dead wrong. Your concerns and the fiscal  concerns are 100% valid. We may disagree on course of action but being so low information as to say it's "Russian propaganda" and you're spreading it is laughable on its face and should be ignored.

Make no mistake though there are people here, knowingly or unknowingly, amplifying literal Russian propaganda.

Pushing things like:

- Widespread prevalence of Nazis in Ukrainian society
- The US conducting covert biowarfare research in Ukrainian labs
- That Zelensky is a sexual deviant
- That Zelensky is a drug abuser
- That Zelensky and other Ukrainian leaders are engaged in corrupt practices to profit directly from US aid
- That Democrats are getting any appreciable kickbacks from aid sent to Ukraine as some sort of vast money laundering scheme
- That US provided weapons are being sold on the black market by profiteers
- That Russia was somehow provoked into invading Ukraine
- ad nauseam

None of which can be backed up by any solid and reliable sources.

Those are all demonstrable forms of Russian propaganda we've seen members here believe and post here. So far as I know you've not participated in such stupidity.



This, I apologize for coming out hard on Ron. However I’m emotionally involved. I have also followed this war and Ukraine since pre2014 and have my own scars to prove it.  

We coulda shoulda in so many ways we owe it to the Ukrainians. We made them destroy their strategic stockpiles, we refused to sell them weapons that would have deterred this whole fiasco. We dumbed down intel briefs in 2015-15 that make me think we were on Russias side. 300 paras lost their lives because of our redacted intel (we didn’t tell Ukrainians it was redacted) 95th got 300 guys killed in 30 minutes for listening to our government. We owe it to them period.

When they started to mobilize to fight back in 2014, Obama told them to stand down. Lots of blame here. Being short on munitions that friendly countries (ROK)  would provide in event of real war is a small price for doing the right thing, earning a decades long strategic friendship, and decimating the number two anti American power.

I also spent a Saturday with some SSG guys from Pickett/Lee “woke name insert later” who were ecstatic to be helping by getting old gear up to snuff and on its way. They were awesome and two of the three wanted to quit and go over to fight/help. It was all old shit in this case. Old shit with a makeover by guys that care.

I understand the tendency of people to become emotionally involved in a cause or in the case of the Ukraine war I know a lot of people are taking their ancestry and heritage into account.

What I said multiple times is, I think the analysis of the situation should be done as unemotional and without passion as possible and from my perspective, with a view to what is in Americas best interest.   And I am not sure that people who are allowing their ancestral biases to slant views are doing that.  

It the simple things like acknowledging the various things that happen in the war, happen, instead they make themselves seem stupid by sticking their fingers in their ears and saying that it’s not happening when anyone who has experience in a combat zone knows they happen.


I’m specifically referring to the Us openly stating that they were providing satellite intel to Ukraine, saw Russian missile forces deploy 25 miles away and deliberately withheld that data, provided substituted photos showing the border as clean to which the 95th met after a pincher attack behind Donetsk. They got clobbered by thermobaric missiles. They relied upon our intel. It killed 300 guys, we lied straight up. That’s not a fog of war bullshit Ron, it is 100% on us because we offered intel knowing it was deliberately flawed. That’s just fucking a bunch of good guys over. If it was an accident you might have an argument.

We need to produce more stuff if we are relying on 25 year expired HARM missiles. Sorry that’s just the truth. We should thank the Ukrainians for showing the political how dire it is ( if what you say is true)
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:27:22 PM EDT
[#31]
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Originally Posted By Easterner:


Speaking of cool shit that arrived. Between reading this thread, I have been working on this for a couple days. Still have a lot of the finishing touches to do, mirrors, exhaust, etc. 127 pieces is a lot for this little model. Made in Ukraine.

Done solely for "research" purposes and finding sanity. Air raid siren has been really quiet. Makes me feel like something is in the works.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/526834/IMG_20221122_013605_jpg-2609355.JPG
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Originally Posted By Easterner:


Speaking of cool shit that arrived. Between reading this thread, I have been working on this for a couple days. Still have a lot of the finishing touches to do, mirrors, exhaust, etc. 127 pieces is a lot for this little model. Made in Ukraine.

Done solely for "research" purposes and finding sanity. Air raid siren has been really quiet. Makes me feel like something is in the works.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/526834/IMG_20221122_013605_jpg-2609355.JPG


Very cool!!! Can't wait to see the finished product!
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:29:22 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CharlieR] [#32]
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Originally Posted By planemaker:


Yes. First, the Russians won't be able to afford to maintain their nuclear forces at anywhere close to where they had been. Second, the cyber threat is being (and has already been) dramatically reduced by the fleeing of cyber-capable young people away from Russia to keep from getting thrown into a meat grinder.
View Quote


The Russians have a privateering model and many of their cyber actors employed against the West are organized criminals who steal from the West with abandon as long as they don't steal from Russia.  These are the last people who will leave Russia and travel abroad.  Any cyber actors that work for the Russian govt or .mil aren't getting drafted to be cannon fodder. They are already in the game.  

Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:30:55 PM EDT
[#33]
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Originally Posted By R0N:

How do we bill Ukraine?   Or is your proposition that we exchange our arms for mineral rights on captured territory?
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Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By lorazepam:
Originally Posted By R0N:

I understand the tendency of people to become emotionally involved in a cause or in the case of the Ukraine war I know a lot of people are taking their ancestry and heritage into account.

What I said multiple times is, I think the analysis of the situation should be done as unemotional and without passion as possible and from my perspective, with a view to what is in Americas best interest.   And I am not sure that people who are allowing their ancestral biases to slant views are doing that.  

It the simple things like acknowledging the various things that happen in the war, happen, instead they make themselves seem stupid by sticking their fingers in their ears and saying that it’s not happening when anyone who has experience in a combat zone knows they happen.

I am guilty of letting my emotions feed into my thoughts on this. I served at a time when we had basically 400,000 troops in Europe to counter the soviet threat. Plus all the armor, artillery, aircraft, munitions and support structure. We paid this for years, plus the training, practice, and transport of all of it.
What I see happening now is the final flush of that turd and getting the bargain of the century to do it. I get that it is a dramatically different military now, but from this old russia hating old man's eyes it sure seems like a bargain. We get to turn over old stocks, replace with new and bill Ukraine (russia) for it. We get to test new stuff, and evaluate other military designs in a same use environment.
We can showcase our stuff, and get contracts for it from other nations.
I guess I don't get that we are supposed to be prepared to eventually counter this threat, and there should be ample supply of munitions to do so, as well as counter threats in asia. That's the whole point of financing a standing military, isn't it?

How do we bill Ukraine?   Or is your proposition that we exchange our arms for mineral rights on captured territory?


Ok I take everything back. The money is being used partially to replenish our own stocks with new stuff? Should we replenish old stocks because we need them? Or should we just sit on old crap that works 70% of the time like Russia and just pay down our debt? Ukraine has nothing to do with our debt. It’s a pittance compared to all the other spending.

Seriously I’m seeing some logical issues with your argument. Never met a logistics guy worrying about our debt in war.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:35:06 PM EDT
[#34]
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Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer:


I’m specifically referring to the Us openly stating that they were providing satellite intel to Ukraine, saw Russian missile forces deploy 25 miles away and deliberately withheld that data, provided substituted photos showing the border as clean to which the 95th met after a pincher attack behind Donetsk. They got clobbered by thermobaric missiles. They relied upon our intel. It killed 300 guys, we lied straight up. That’s not a fog of war bullshit Ron, it is 100% on us because we offered intel knowing it was deliberately flawed. That’s just fucking a bunch of good guys over. If it was an accident you might have an argument.

We need to produce more stuff if we are relying on 25 year expired HARM missiles. Sorry that’s just the truth. We should thank the Ukrainians for showing the political show dire it is ( if what you say is true)
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Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer:
Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By AROKIE:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By IEC:
I don't care if we spend $1T total in military aid to Ukraine. Our current expenditures are reaping 2-3x in destroyed Russian equipment, not even counting the damage to Russian manpower and training for DECADES to come.

What's more, we're sending 1-2 generations (or more) old American equipment that would otherwise by and large be destined for demil or long term storage. So we save maintenance and demil costs.

But here's the real icing on the cake: The world is seeing in real-time that even 1980s era American equipment is excellent and trouncing anything the Russians can field. This will drive hundreds of billions in arms purchasing from AMERICAN industry which means more AMERICAN manufacturing jobs.

This is the very definition of a bargain.

As far as I'm concerned, any Congress critter advocating for ending military aid to Ukraine should be investigated for ties to the Kremlin.


This is what actually pisses off many of the people in my circles of current and retired military and IC.  Most of are good with killing Russians but are not under illusion this war will result in a more secure international environment for the US, nor do we see that in the end the small expenditures up front will save any money.   The small amount being paid now is a down payment  on a massive long term cost at a time when we cannot afford it.

It is kind of weird to those of us who have been the security state our entire lives at the level of support being shown by those outside of it for it and its indicator how effective IO can be at swaying populations there are so many talking points being spewed by those supporting “the cause.”


So your saying we should cut our losses??


What I have been saying is that a difference of opinion does not equate to supporting Putin, being an agent of his, or being influenced by Russian propaganda.  

What is most disappointing to me is for years we criticized the left for their tactics only to see many of those who are on the right doing the exact same thing, but instead of “trust the science” and “that is racists” they are using “Russian propaganda” or “Putin Puppet”.

I'd be very surprised if anyone here thinks your take is "Russian propaganda" or you are a "Putin Puppet". Same with the folks that have been consistent in their messaging about fiscal responsibility (not the ones that just discovered it after 4 years of an R doubling Obama's spending). I will flatly say it, anyone saying that is dead wrong. Your concerns and the fiscal  concerns are 100% valid. We may disagree on course of action but being so low information as to say it's "Russian propaganda" and you're spreading it is laughable on its face and should be ignored.

Make no mistake though there are people here, knowingly or unknowingly, amplifying literal Russian propaganda.

Pushing things like:

- Widespread prevalence of Nazis in Ukrainian society
- The US conducting covert biowarfare research in Ukrainian labs
- That Zelensky is a sexual deviant
- That Zelensky is a drug abuser
- That Zelensky and other Ukrainian leaders are engaged in corrupt practices to profit directly from US aid
- That Democrats are getting any appreciable kickbacks from aid sent to Ukraine as some sort of vast money laundering scheme
- That US provided weapons are being sold on the black market by profiteers
- That Russia was somehow provoked into invading Ukraine
- ad nauseam

None of which can be backed up by any solid and reliable sources.

Those are all demonstrable forms of Russian propaganda we've seen members here believe and post here. So far as I know you've not participated in such stupidity.



This, I apologize for coming out hard on Ron. However I’m emotionally involved. I have also followed this war and Ukraine since pre2014 and have my own scars to prove it.  

We coulda shoulda in so many ways we owe it to the Ukrainians. We made them destroy their strategic stockpiles, we refused to sell them weapons that would have deterred this whole fiasco. We dumbed down intel briefs in 2015-15 that make me think we were on Russias side. 300 paras lost their lives because of our redacted intel (we didn’t tell Ukrainians it was redacted) 95th got 300 guys killed in 30 minutes for listening to our government. We owe it to them period.

When they started to mobilize to fight back in 2014, Obama told them to stand down. Lots of blame here. Being short on munitions that friendly countries (ROK)  would provide in event of real war is a small price for doing the right thing, earning a decades long strategic friendship, and decimating the number two anti American power.

I also spent a Saturday with some SSG guys from Pickett/Lee “woke name insert later” who were ecstatic to be helping by getting old gear up to snuff and on its way. They were awesome and two of the three wanted to quit and go over to fight/help. It was all old shit in this case. Old shit with a makeover by guys that care.

I understand the tendency of people to become emotionally involved in a cause or in the case of the Ukraine war I know a lot of people are taking their ancestry and heritage into account.

What I said multiple times is, I think the analysis of the situation should be done as unemotional and without passion as possible and from my perspective, with a view to what is in Americas best interest.   And I am not sure that people who are allowing their ancestral biases to slant views are doing that.  

It the simple things like acknowledging the various things that happen in the war, happen, instead they make themselves seem stupid by sticking their fingers in their ears and saying that it’s not happening when anyone who has experience in a combat zone knows they happen.


I’m specifically referring to the Us openly stating that they were providing satellite intel to Ukraine, saw Russian missile forces deploy 25 miles away and deliberately withheld that data, provided substituted photos showing the border as clean to which the 95th met after a pincher attack behind Donetsk. They got clobbered by thermobaric missiles. They relied upon our intel. It killed 300 guys, we lied straight up. That’s not a fog of war bullshit Ron, it is 100% on us because we offered intel knowing it was deliberately flawed. That’s just fucking a bunch of good guys over. If it was an accident you might have an argument.

We need to produce more stuff if we are relying on 25 year expired HARM missiles. Sorry that’s just the truth. We should thank the Ukrainians for showing the political show dire it is ( if what you say is true)


When did that incident take place? The false Intel? And why?
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:35:31 PM EDT
[#35]
Stop

Leave it to rest
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:36:29 PM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By planemaker:


Yes. First, the Russians won't be able to afford to maintain their nuclear forces at anywhere close to where they had been. Second, the cyber threat is being (and has already been) dramatically reduced by the fleeing of cyber-capable young people away from Russia to keep from getting thrown into a meat grinder.
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Originally Posted By planemaker:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By postpostban:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By dillydilly:
Originally Posted By R0N:


That sounds good and may make a good bumper sticker but in the real world you cannot trade dead Ukrainians for new control and steering units for M31s, IMX 101 for M795s, seekers for JAVs etc  we now need to buy.

That’s not how war works. As the poster above me said, Ukraine better align with us. They have nautical resources and a work force that can be used to cover that.

I have a feeling I know quite a bit more about how war works than most

And you may want to look up lend lease, because some nations are still making payments on that


So what EXACTLY do you think the US government should be doing?

You keep beating the same bushes, but you don't seem to actually get to a point.

As this has evolved, it can pretty obvious that the supposed threat we needed to defend against the US  was not there, why invest the treasures for someone else war.

Multiple times, people have rebutted your argument that the Russians aren't a threat because their conventional forces are weaker than ours, yet you have ignored those posts and continue posting the same argument.


Because for the Ukrainians are proving they were not a conventional threat and the only thing being attracted.  Do you think is war is going to lower the cyber or nuclear threat?  


Yes. First, the Russians won't be able to afford to maintain their nuclear forces at anywhere close to where they had been. Second, the cyber threat is being (and has already been) dramatically reduced by the fleeing of cyber-capable young people away from Russia to keep from getting thrown into a meat grinder.

1) That is an assumption, I think they will actually see they cannot compete conventionally and double down on strategic capabilities
2) They rely on illicit actors as it is, this will not reduce that.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:38:39 PM EDT
[#37]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer:


Ok I take everything back. The money is being used partially to replenish our own stocks with new stuff? Should we replenish old stocks because we need them? Or should we just sit on old crap that works 70% of the time like Russia and just pay down our debt? Ukraine has nothing to do with our debt. It’s a pittance compared to all the other spending.

Seriously I’m seeing some logical issues with your argument. Never met a logistics guy worrying about our debt in war.
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Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By lorazepam:
Originally Posted By R0N:

I understand the tendency of people to become emotionally involved in a cause or in the case of the Ukraine war I know a lot of people are taking their ancestry and heritage into account.

What I said multiple times is, I think the analysis of the situation should be done as unemotional and without passion as possible and from my perspective, with a view to what is in Americas best interest.   And I am not sure that people who are allowing their ancestral biases to slant views are doing that.  

It the simple things like acknowledging the various things that happen in the war, happen, instead they make themselves seem stupid by sticking their fingers in their ears and saying that it’s not happening when anyone who has experience in a combat zone knows they happen.

I am guilty of letting my emotions feed into my thoughts on this. I served at a time when we had basically 400,000 troops in Europe to counter the soviet threat. Plus all the armor, artillery, aircraft, munitions and support structure. We paid this for years, plus the training, practice, and transport of all of it.
What I see happening now is the final flush of that turd and getting the bargain of the century to do it. I get that it is a dramatically different military now, but from this old russia hating old man's eyes it sure seems like a bargain. We get to turn over old stocks, replace with new and bill Ukraine (russia) for it. We get to test new stuff, and evaluate other military designs in a same use environment.
We can showcase our stuff, and get contracts for it from other nations.
I guess I don't get that we are supposed to be prepared to eventually counter this threat, and there should be ample supply of munitions to do so, as well as counter threats in asia. That's the whole point of financing a standing military, isn't it?

How do we bill Ukraine?   Or is your proposition that we exchange our arms for mineral rights on captured territory?


Ok I take everything back. The money is being used partially to replenish our own stocks with new stuff? Should we replenish old stocks because we need them? Or should we just sit on old crap that works 70% of the time like Russia and just pay down our debt? Ukraine has nothing to do with our debt. It’s a pittance compared to all the other spending.

Seriously I’m seeing some logical issues with your argument. Never met a logistics guy worrying about our debt in war.


The aid Ukraine is getting from us is just a drop In the bucket from our national defense budget. It's not putting us in a fiscal bind. My opinion it's the best investment our gov has done in decades for our national defense
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:39:54 PM EDT
[#38]
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Originally Posted By Banditman:
Stop

Leave it to rest
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Its actually a good conversation for once, it's staying civil. For now
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:45:35 PM EDT
[#39]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Very short video of a homeade kamikaze drone hitting a Russian position.  There seem to be 2 men in the position.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/z1391l/ukrainian_drone_flies_right_into_the_russian/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb
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That payload looked larger than a 30-40mm round
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:47:31 PM EDT
[#40]
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Originally Posted By AROKIE:


Very cool!!! Can't wait to see the finished product!
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Originally Posted By AROKIE:
Originally Posted By Easterner:


Speaking of cool shit that arrived. Between reading this thread, I have been working on this for a couple days. Still have a lot of the finishing touches to do, mirrors, exhaust, etc. 127 pieces is a lot for this little model. Made in Ukraine.

Done solely for "research" purposes and finding sanity. Air raid siren has been really quiet. Makes me feel like something is in the works.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/526834/IMG_20221122_013605_jpg-2609355.JPG


Very cool!!! Can't wait to see the finished product!


Me too.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:48:41 PM EDT
[#41]
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I'm sure you posted that previously, but where did you get that from?

m
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:48:58 PM EDT
[#42]
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Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer:


Ok I take everything back. The money is being used partially to replenish our own stocks with new stuff? Should we replenish old stocks because we need them? Or should we just sit on old crap that works 70% of the time like Russia and just pay down our debt? Ukraine has nothing to do with our debt. It’s a pittance compared to all the other spending.

Seriously I’m seeing some logical issues with your argument. Never met a logistics guy worrying about our debt in war.
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Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By lorazepam:
Originally Posted By R0N:

I understand the tendency of people to become emotionally involved in a cause or in the case of the Ukraine war I know a lot of people are taking their ancestry and heritage into account.

What I said multiple times is, I think the analysis of the situation should be done as unemotional and without passion as possible and from my perspective, with a view to what is in Americas best interest.   And I am not sure that people who are allowing their ancestral biases to slant views are doing that.  

It the simple things like acknowledging the various things that happen in the war, happen, instead they make themselves seem stupid by sticking their fingers in their ears and saying that it’s not happening when anyone who has experience in a combat zone knows they happen.

I am guilty of letting my emotions feed into my thoughts on this. I served at a time when we had basically 400,000 troops in Europe to counter the soviet threat. Plus all the armor, artillery, aircraft, munitions and support structure. We paid this for years, plus the training, practice, and transport of all of it.
What I see happening now is the final flush of that turd and getting the bargain of the century to do it. I get that it is a dramatically different military now, but from this old russia hating old man's eyes it sure seems like a bargain. We get to turn over old stocks, replace with new and bill Ukraine (russia) for it. We get to test new stuff, and evaluate other military designs in a same use environment.
We can showcase our stuff, and get contracts for it from other nations.
I guess I don't get that we are supposed to be prepared to eventually counter this threat, and there should be ample supply of munitions to do so, as well as counter threats in asia. That's the whole point of financing a standing military, isn't it?

How do we bill Ukraine?   Or is your proposition that we exchange our arms for mineral rights on captured territory?


Ok I take everything back. The money is being used partially to replenish our own stocks with new stuff? Should we replenish old stocks because we need them? Or should we just sit on old crap that works 70% of the time like Russia and just pay down our debt? Ukraine has nothing to do with our debt. It’s a pittance compared to all the other spending.

Seriously I’m seeing some logical issues with your argument. Never met a logistics guy worrying about our debt in war.

Your assumption is that weapons we planned to have in service for the next 30 year would suffer the same fate as Russian weapons.  That ignore we do stock pile management and surveillance and have life cycle maintenance cycle for our weapons that aren't considered wooden rounds.

It's like when you talked about seeing old data plates, which I don't doubt.  But I also don't doubt those weapons have taken apart a few times for examination and if needed components were replaced.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:49:44 PM EDT
[#43]
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:49:59 PM EDT
[#44]
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Originally Posted By Chaingun:
That payload looked larger than a 30-40mm round
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Originally Posted By Chaingun:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Very short video of a homeade kamikaze drone hitting a Russian position.  There seem to be 2 men in the position.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/z1391l/ukrainian_drone_flies_right_into_the_russian/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb
That payload looked larger than a 30-40mm round


It certainly did, and had extra bb's applied to the front of the device.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:51:57 PM EDT
[#45]
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Originally Posted By R0N:


Because for the Ukrainians are proving they were not a conventional threat and the only thing being attracted.  Do you think is war is going to lower the cyber or nuclear threat?  
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Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By postpostban:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By dillydilly:
Originally Posted By R0N:


That sounds good and may make a good bumper sticker but in the real world you cannot trade dead Ukrainians for new control and steering units for M31s, IMX 101 for M795s, seekers for JAVs etc  we now need to buy.

That’s not how war works. As the poster above me said, Ukraine better align with us. They have nautical resources and a work force that can be used to cover that.

I have a feeling I know quite a bit more about how war works than most

And you may want to look up lend lease, because some nations are still making payments on that


So what EXACTLY do you think the US government should be doing?

You keep beating the same bushes, but you don't seem to actually get to a point.

As this has evolved, it can pretty obvious that the supposed threat we needed to defend against the US  was not there, why invest the treasures for someone else war.

Multiple times, people have rebutted your argument that the Russians aren't a threat because their conventional forces are weaker than ours, yet you have ignored those posts and continue posting the same argument.


Because for the Ukrainians are proving they were not a conventional threat and the only thing being attracted.  Do you think is war is going to lower the cyber or nuclear threat?  


Russia was a strategic threat. They could have steam rolled the baltics, annexed adjacent territories, integrate their collective industries, that was the plan. They allowed Ukraine to build up a significant military over 8 years and then messed up on the engagement. Had they sent 300k into Kyiv all at once it would have been a different story.

Russia, if allowed to rebuild under Putin will be an even bigger threat in 5 years. Mark my words. They are psychos and hold major grudges. Letting up now is akin to letting a bully get of easy then him and his older brother jump you later when your not expecting it.

Either you have magical access to a very high level database of stores across the DOD or your speculating based on “conversations” in any event I doubt anyone with said access to restricted databases is going to post it here. If you are and do, that’s your clearance not mine.

Buying and producing new ammo stocks is on the US budget and future shopping list. Taiwan isn’t going to be lost or won because of our strategic army stockpiles of 155, 120, gmlrs etc. I’ll worry when I see loads of barges clearing out Yorktown.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:52:52 PM EDT
[#46]
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Originally Posted By AROKIE:

Its actually a good conversation for once, it's staying civil. For now
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Originally Posted By AROKIE:
Originally Posted By Banditman:
Stop

Leave it to rest

Its actually a good conversation for once, it's staying civil. For now
you're thread sliding. Stop it.
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:56:45 PM EDT
[#47]
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Originally Posted By CharlieR:




That's your opinion, you're entitled to it. Supporting documentation?

Deterrence theory rests on three elements:

Certainty: reduce uncertainty that the response is forthcoming
Celerity:  swiftness of response
Severity:  Degree of response

I've posted this before, power is will times capability.

When I look at variables of power, will, capability, certainty, celerity, severity, I think China is more deterred then they used to be. If you think they are more likely to invade this tyear then last AFTER watching western speed, weapons, and resolve, I need to see some supporting documentation.

I don't think it is a historical reality that any nation, let alone a world power, has burned through so much ammo that it incentivizes an adversary response. Its never happened.  We have FAR FAR more to lose by letting Russia thump the Ukrainians and undermine deterrence theory to save ammo.  This is illogical.

And by the way, even if I agreed with you, and I don't, I don't think the munitions we are burning through, 155mm and GLMRs, is what we'd need to defend Taiwan, which is probably cruise missiles and air power....maybe the USN will get in it, and they have nothing to do with this one. Neither has the USAF.  Apples and oranges and lemons and pears.

But Id be willing to spend money to increase deterrence rather then the probability the Chinese will send some CVNs to the bottom of the Pacific in a war that we really want to deter, not fight.



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Originally Posted By CharlieR:
Originally Posted By R0N:

Russia and China have always been allies of convenience, and a weakened Russia actually shores up their flank.  Additionally the PRC sees the effort required to stop what amounts a regional bulky is heavily taxing the US when it comes to some of the key munitions for their fight this will also emboldened them.



Additionally the PRC sees the effort required to stop what amounts a regional bulky is heavily taxing the US when it comes to some of the key munitions for their fight this will also emboldened them.


That's your opinion, you're entitled to it. Supporting documentation?

Deterrence theory rests on three elements:

Certainty: reduce uncertainty that the response is forthcoming
Celerity:  swiftness of response
Severity:  Degree of response

I've posted this before, power is will times capability.

When I look at variables of power, will, capability, certainty, celerity, severity, I think China is more deterred then they used to be. If you think they are more likely to invade this tyear then last AFTER watching western speed, weapons, and resolve, I need to see some supporting documentation.

I don't think it is a historical reality that any nation, let alone a world power, has burned through so much ammo that it incentivizes an adversary response. Its never happened.  We have FAR FAR more to lose by letting Russia thump the Ukrainians and undermine deterrence theory to save ammo.  This is illogical.

And by the way, even if I agreed with you, and I don't, I don't think the munitions we are burning through, 155mm and GLMRs, is what we'd need to defend Taiwan, which is probably cruise missiles and air power....maybe the USN will get in it, and they have nothing to do with this one. Neither has the USAF.  Apples and oranges and lemons and pears.

But Id be willing to spend money to increase deterrence rather then the probability the Chinese will send some CVNs to the bottom of the Pacific in a war that we really want to deter, not fight.





There have been more than a few articles in the DMR/Early bird about how the PRC is being emboldened and moving it's timelines up over the months.


Link Posted: 11/21/2022 8:57:56 PM EDT
[#48]
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Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer:
Med supplies arrived thanks AR15.COM member “.      “. You can put yourself out there if you would like! Slava Ukrainihttps://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/419667/6E2BA2F6-0610-4323-ACF2-E00DE4D52B83_jpe-2609076.JPG
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Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer:
Med supplies arrived thanks AR15.COM member “.      “. You can put yourself out there if you would like! Slava Ukrainihttps://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/419667/6E2BA2F6-0610-4323-ACF2-E00DE4D52B83_jpe-2609076.JPG


@gentlemanfarmer :Glad it got there ok. The next box of PMags, and the last of my bandages and z-fold gauze, should be there Friday according to USPS. Slava Ukraini!

Originally Posted By RSM:



I was just beginning to wonder if it was a scam.  Gives me hope!


Can't wait until mine gets here!
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 9:02:22 PM EDT
[#49]
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Originally Posted By Banditman:
Stop

Leave it to rest
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Think GD will ever get as low on purses as the orcs are getting on ordinance?
Link Posted: 11/21/2022 9:02:57 PM EDT
[#50]
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Originally Posted By R0N:

Russia and China have always been allies of convenience, and a weakened Russia actually shores up their flank.  Additionally the PRC sees the effort required to stop what amounts a regional bulky is heavily taxing the US when it comes to some of the key munitions for their fight this will also emboldened them.
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I guess those in charge have fucked up what is actually needed. Being honest, if our air power was involved it would have been over by planting season. Now that Ukraine is finally pumping out trained soldiers, and have existing ones getting up to speed on weapons They have improved in their ability to hit targets. They are smart, tough, tenacious, and want their land back. It sucks they can't get air superiority, or have the planes to do it.
China doesn't want to blow the fuck out of Taiwan. What good does it do to take over a smoldering rock? It will suck mightily for them to try and take over. It is more likely to happen from within than invasion.
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