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Posted: 10/27/2021 8:27:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: The_Beer_Slayer]
It says it's been moved, but the link just takes me to the Community page. What gives?


This is now the active "shit (might be) is definitely happening in Ukraine" thread.

News links, thanks to BerettaGuy:
Originally Posted By BerettaGuy:
LINKS TO UKRAINIAN NEWS SOURCES IN ENGLISH

Kyiv Post

Ukrainian News

UKRInform

EUROMAIDEN PRESS

New Voice of Ukraine

Kyiv Independent

Ukraine World

InterFax Ukraine

UATV

Ukrainian Journal

Official Website of the President of Ukraine

Ukrainian Ministry of Defense

Save these links. I can't post all the headlines like I've done in the past - too much news and too often.
View Quote


Please @ me with additional stuff to be added here. I don't currently have time to properly curate this thread otherwise.

New news link c/o berettaguy:

Ukrainian Pravda
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/

Stop fake, anti - disinformation site:
https://www.stopfake.org/en/main/
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 12:07:36 AM EDT
[#1]
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Originally Posted By AZ_Mike:

Have a seat over there.
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Originally Posted By AZ_Mike:
Originally Posted By m35ben:
If anyone wants to get angry here is Scott " the idiot" Ritter live streaming

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLbjRS6J60Y

Have a seat over there.


I commented on his live feed asking why anyone gives the time of day to that convicted pedophile. I don’t know if he was thinking about the war or tripped up reading the comment, but he stopped talking for a few seconds.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 12:16:32 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Ryan_Ruck] [#2]
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Originally Posted By KELBEAST:


I commented on his live feed asking why anyone gives the time of day to that convicted pedophile. I don’t know if he was thinking about the war or tripped up reading the comment, but he stopped talking for a few seconds.
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Originally Posted By KELBEAST:
Originally Posted By AZ_Mike:
Originally Posted By m35ben:
If anyone wants to get angry here is Scott " the idiot" Ritter live streaming

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLbjRS6J60Y

Have a seat over there.


I commented on his live feed asking why anyone gives the time of day to that convicted pedophile. I don’t know if he was thinking about the war or tripped up reading the comment, but he stopped talking for a few seconds.

Would be worth spamming his feed with $1 Super Chats. They're obligated to read the Super Chats either live or in a follow up vid on YouTube, or they have to refund it.

(And YouTube takes, I think, 17%)
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 12:18:46 AM EDT
[#3]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

The point is that the weapon systems that we paid for are being used to do exactly what they are intended to do - destroy our strategic enemies and do so without us even lifting a finger.  Destroying Russia as a strategic threat to the US and its allies is worth 100 times the price of what we’re spending.
It’s interesting how the shills latch onto and then mutually reinforce when they think an issue has traction.  Fortunately, shills are not making US policy decisions.
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You said that GMLRS (as well as javelin and stinger) wouldn't be employed in a fight over Taiwan because it will be a naval/air war. I'm merely pointing out that it's overly optimistic to think that. Have I made any complaint about how much we're spending in sending equipment to Ukraine? No. Have I said we shouldn't destroy Russia as a strategic threat? No. I've got family in Kharkiv and I'd hazard a guess that I'm one of the few people on this board that's actually engaged Russian military forces (if you consider Wagner to be Russian military) in combat so I'd just like to thank you for giving me a good laugh by implying I'm a Russian shill for nothing more than pointing out your oversight of second and third order effects in regards to east Asian military strategy.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 12:22:26 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Grendelsbane] [#4]



Here is an article that mentions firing HIMARS from the deck of a ship, and using an F-35 in another test to send targeting requests directly to a HIMARS unit.

https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-trending/marines-himars-f-35-pairing/
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 12:31:03 AM EDT
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea] [#5]
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Originally Posted By Grendelsbane:



Here is an article that mentions firing HIMARS from the deck of a ship, and using an F-35 in another test to send targeting requests directly to a HIMARS unit.

https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-trending/marines-himars-f-35-pairing/
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The trick is how do we degrade Russia, Iran, North Korea and China, potentially the latter simultaneously. On the plus side equipment Moscow can’t supply Iran or North Korea and to a degree China is beneficial but we have limited resources for multi-region needs. This is why I’d like to see Europe {France, Italy, Spain, Germany} pick up the mantle and hold down the fort with Ukraine, at least in the near future by taking steps now. If we have to pull armor brigades and Abn/AA brigades from Atlantic Resolve to fight elsewhere then our partners need to be ready to backfill those units in Poland, Romania and the Baltics - fuck Hungary imo. https://www.euronews.com/amp/2022/02/09/ukraine-crisis-hungary-won-t-accept-more-nato-troops-on-its-soil-says-foreign-minister-szi
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 12:44:58 AM EDT
[#6]
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Originally Posted By DASJUDEN:


Not jumping in on either side of this shit show but if China and the US Navy and Airforce are actively engaged in hostilities there's a better than even chance Beijing tells the norks to push south and backs them up in the attempt. In that case we're going to need all the GMLRS we can get our hands on for counter battery at the very least. Thinking the conflict will be contained to solely naval or air engagements is overly optimistic.
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One BIG problem with that.  The Norks' military is even more of a paper tiger than the Russian's.  And South Korea's military is one of the best in the world, not to mention best equipped.  This is why NK wanted nukes so badly.  They know they couldn't survive a conventional conflict.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 12:50:48 AM EDT
[#7]
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Originally Posted By DanW:


One BIG problem with that.  The Norks' military is even more of a paper tiger than the Russian's.  And South Korea's military is one of the best in the world, not to mention best equipped.  This is why NK wanted nukes so badly.  They know they couldn't survive a conventional conflict.
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I spent 2020-2021 at Camp Humphreys. The concern isn't so much for the Norks after the first 24 hours other than their tube artillery. The concern is for the Chinese divisions that would most likely be rolling in behind them in this scenario. While the Chinese are untested on the modern battlefield I'm not a fan of (and neither is USFK) making the mistake of underestimating an unknown. No more Task Force Smiths.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 12:59:49 AM EDT
[#8]
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Originally Posted By DanW:


One BIG problem with that.  The Norks' military is even more of a paper tiger than the Russian's.  And South Korea's military is one of the best in the world, not to mention best equipped.  This is why NK wanted nukes so badly.  They know they couldn't survive a conventional conflict.
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They don’t have to be good. There are 4m of them. And they are likely better disciplined than the Russians given their long conscription period.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 1:24:59 AM EDT
[#9]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

The point is that the weapon systems that we paid for are being used to do exactly what they are intended to do - destroy our strategic enemies and do so without us even lifting a finger.  Destroying Russia as a strategic threat to the US and its allies is worth 100 times the price of what we’re spending.
It’s interesting how the shills latch onto and then mutually reinforce when they think an issue has traction.  Fortunately, shills are not making US policy decisions.
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You think Das Juden is a shill

Link Posted: 10/22/2022 1:32:04 AM EDT
[#10]
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:

They don’t have to be good. There are 4m of them. And they are likely better disciplined than the Russians given their long conscription period.
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With all due respect this isn’t 1950.  Let 4M Norks roll down the very limited number of north-south roads under SK K239/GMLRS fire with drone spotting and see what happens.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 1:32:08 AM EDT
[#11]
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Originally Posted By dillydilly:
I’ll come out and say I apologize for using the term “mongoloid” because after doing some research, I realized that is a racial term. My initial understanding of it was more line with barbarism and savagery. So my bad, apologies for anyone offended.
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I respect that you said this a lot, it takes a big man especially on the internet where usually people get more dug in on their positions. I genuinely hoped that you didn't actually ascribe genetic disposition to their actions.

Mongoloid is a lesser known racial insult, which is why I asked a yes or no question wanting to know if you meant it racially or not.



I may not think that the US should send blanket money to Ukraine but make no mistake I would never support a country being invaded and brutalized as Ukraine has. And I absolutely do hope they win.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 1:34:31 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta] [#12]
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Originally Posted By PraesidiumFabrica:


You think Das Juden is a shill

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Originally Posted By PraesidiumFabrica:
Originally Posted By Capta:

The point is that the weapon systems that we paid for are being used to do exactly what they are intended to do - destroy our strategic enemies and do so without us even lifting a finger.  Destroying Russia as a strategic threat to the US and its allies is worth 100 times the price of what we’re spending.
It’s interesting how the shills latch onto and then mutually reinforce when they think an issue has traction.  Fortunately, shills are not making US policy decisions.


You think Das Juden is a shill


There is an extremely well-known problem with low-post count individuals wading in with pro-Russian talking points. I think a lot of SHILLS who have not participated in the last 2,000 pages of this thread have suddenly materialized, alleging that our national security is being critically compromised by handing Ukraine 16 HIMARS out of 400.  That’s what I think.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 1:35:18 AM EDT
[#13]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

With all due respect this isn’t 1950.  Let 4M Norks roll down the very limited number of north-south roads under SK K239/GMLRS fire with drone spotting and see what happens.
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Ukraine has shot thousands of guided projectiles at 300,000 Russians and the enemy is still on the field.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 1:37:42 AM EDT
[#14]
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 1:43:11 AM EDT
[#15]
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 1:45:27 AM EDT
[#16]
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Originally Posted By RustedAce:


Everyone in Seoul will die. 1950 or not.
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No shit.  Seoul is like 15 MILES from the border.  It’s in tube arty range the second the balloon goes up, and 1, 100, or 1000 HIMARS isn’t going to change that.  Particularly once NK got nukes.
Seoul is toast and that’s been an accepted fact for a long time.  SK refused to move their capital south for political reasons and that’s that.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 1:59:34 AM EDT
[#17]
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Originally Posted By darkd0r:

For the want of a nail, the shoe was lost.
For the want of a shoe, the horse was lost.
For the want of a horse, the rider was lost.
For the want of a rider, the skirmish was lost...
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Originally Posted By darkd0r:
Originally Posted By Capta:

So what situation are we involved in where 384 HIMARS will be inadequate, but 400 HIMARS will be adequate?

For the want of a nail, the shoe was lost.
For the want of a shoe, the horse was lost.
For the want of a horse, the rider was lost.
For the want of a rider, the skirmish was lost...


For want of a few HIMARS, the Kherson offensive was lost.
For want of Kherson, the Ukraine war was lost.
For want of Ukrainian victory, stability in Europe was lost.
For want of a stable Europe, our future war with China was lost.

Works both ways.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 2:33:38 AM EDT
[#18]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

I don’t think Russian decision-making is fully rational but I don’t think they’re morons either.
If the numerical estimate of forces is accurate there is no way a worthwhile offensive can be mounted or sustained.
Ukrainian supply lines are shorter, Russian supply lines are longer.
Ukraine is generating forces in western Ukraine, and significant units which we know nothing about are probably available to oppose any push.
The terrain (marshes) is extremely limiting, with limited roads which are easy to block and easy to interdict.  You can bet that the reasonable invasion routes are already mined to hell and gone.

The most likely rationale is simply to pin UA forces to the north while training at least SOME Russian units to a reasonable standard.
A very distant second is the creation of a western force to invade Poland after a nuclear strike.
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I have a feeling they have sent the trainers into combat. Some of them at least.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 2:34:27 AM EDT
[#19]
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:

That dude is the definition of kompromat.

If he got convicted for jerking it on a webcam for a fake 15 year old, imagine what the Russians have on him.

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Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:
Originally Posted By 1Andy2:
Originally Posted By m35ben:
If anyone wants to get angry here is Scott " the idiot" Ritter live streaming

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLbjRS6J60Y



"Europe needs to wake up to the fact that everything bad happening to you right now is because of the United States.  Your best friend is Russia."


That's where I opened it.

Look at his eyes.   He does NOT believe what he's saying.

That dude is the definition of kompromat.

If he got convicted for jerking it on a webcam for a fake 15 year old, imagine what the Russians have on him.



What they likely have on him would make you barf if you saw it.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 3:18:39 AM EDT
[#20]
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Originally Posted By OBird:


For want of a few HIMARS, the Kherson offensive was lost.
For want of Kherson, the Ukraine war was lost.
For want of Ukrainian victory, stability in Europe was lost.
For want of a stable Europe, our future war with China was lost.

Works both ways.
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Originally Posted By OBird:
Originally Posted By darkd0r:
Originally Posted By Capta:

So what situation are we involved in where 384 HIMARS will be inadequate, but 400 HIMARS will be adequate?

For the want of a nail, the shoe was lost.
For the want of a shoe, the horse was lost.
For the want of a horse, the rider was lost.
For the want of a rider, the skirmish was lost...


For want of a few HIMARS, the Kherson offensive was lost.
For want of Kherson, the Ukraine war was lost.
For want of Ukrainian victory, stability in Europe was lost.
For want of a stable Europe, our future war with China was lost.

Works both ways.

Correct.  No country has entered a major conflict with enough materiel.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 4:02:19 AM EDT
[#21]
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:

Ukraine has shot thousands of guided projectiles at 300,000 Russians and the enemy is still on the field.
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:
Originally Posted By Capta:

With all due respect this isn’t 1950.  Let 4M Norks roll down the very limited number of north-south roads under SK K239/GMLRS fire with drone spotting and see what happens.

Ukraine has shot thousands of guided projectiles at 300,000 Russians and the enemy is still on the field.

Those 300,000 Russians are spread along 1,500 miles of front, and Ukraine is surrounded on three sides by hostile territory.
South Korea has 150 miles of front surrounded on three sides by water.
Which is the more difficult targeting problem?
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 4:10:06 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta] [#22]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By OBird:


For want of a few HIMARS, the Kherson offensive was lost.
For want of Kherson, the Ukraine war was lost.
For want of Ukrainian victory, stability in Europe was lost.
For want of a stable Europe, our future war with China was lost.

Works both ways.
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Originally Posted By OBird:
Originally Posted By darkd0r:
Originally Posted By Capta:

So what situation are we involved in where 384 HIMARS will be inadequate, but 400 HIMARS will be adequate?

For the want of a nail, the shoe was lost.
For the want of a shoe, the horse was lost.
For the want of a horse, the rider was lost.
For the want of a rider, the skirmish was lost...


For want of a few HIMARS, the Kherson offensive was lost.
For want of Kherson, the Ukraine war was lost.
For want of Ukrainian victory, stability in Europe was lost.
For want of a stable Europe, our future war with China was lost.

Works both ways.

If we let Russia off the hook, in 2 years the same shills will be arguing that we can’t send HIMARS to Taiwan because “for want of a nail” we will lose the next war against Russia.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 4:12:32 AM EDT
[#23]
Russian invader gets laid the fuck out by drone:

Link Posted: 10/22/2022 4:29:08 AM EDT
[#24]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Capta:

Those 300,000 Russians are spread along 1,500 miles of front, and Ukraine is surrounded on three sides by hostile territory.
South Korea has 150 miles of front surrounded on three sides by water.
Which is the more difficult targeting problem?
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Reverse slope, tunnel, North Korea has plans for this problem.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 4:41:39 AM EDT
[#25]
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 5:03:36 AM EDT
[#26]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

Russian forces will likely attempt to blow up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) to cover their withdrawal and to prevent Ukrainian forces from pursuing Russian forces deeper into Kherson Oblast. Russian forces will almost certainly blame Ukraine for the dam attack, as ISW has previously assessed.[11] Ukraine has no material interest in blowing the dam, which could flood 80 Ukrainian cities and displace hundreds of thousands of people while damaging Ukraine’s already-tenuous electricity supply. Russia, however, has every reason to attempt to provide cover to its retreating forces and to widen the Dnipro River, which Ukrainian forces would need to cross to continue their counteroffensive. Any claims that Russian forces would not blow the dam due to concerns for the water supply to Crimea are absurd. Crimea survived without access to the canal flowing from the Dnipro since Russia illegally invaded and annexed it in 2014 through the restoration of access following Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Russian officials have demonstrated their ability to indefinitely supply Crimea with water without access to the canal. Russian forces will try to hold eastern Kherson Oblast not for the water, but rather to provide a buffer zone that enables the defense of Crimea and prevents Ukrainian forces from getting into artillery range of the peninsula. Russian decisionmakers may believe that blowing the dam will enable them to retain that buffer zone. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on October 21 that blowing the dam could cut water supplies to much of southern Ukraine and would pose a serious risk to the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), which lies upstream of the dam.[12] The ZNPP relies on water from the Kakhovka reservoir to cool its facilities.


I meant to say yesterday…that's rather more strongly worded than usual

Link Posted: 10/22/2022 5:10:09 AM EDT
[#27]
Alexander Lukashenko today at the training ground near Baranovichi. Special attention to the drones of the Ministry of Internal Affairs: President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko at the Obuz-Lesnovsky combined-arms training ground in the Brest region today gets acquainted with domestic developments of the military-industrial complex.
https://t.co/sn6G9G1Eeq



Lukashenka believes that a dozen drones will block the entire border with Ukraine
https://ria.ru/20221021/bespilotniki-1825654202.html

MINSK, October 21 - RIA Novosti. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that a dozen Belarusian drones could completely close the southern border of Belarus with Ukraine, the press service reports.

On Friday, the President of Belarus visited the Brest region and inspected the unmanned aerial system "Peacemaker" completely of Belarusian development and production.
"Here we are, of course, leaders in the world, and this is no less important than having such drones that can strike at certain targets. A dozen of these green machines can completely close the southern border of our country with Ukraine from drones and other air targets", - he said.

According to Lukashenka, "all systems have been finalized and work well." "They all hit their targets. It's good. We will continue to work. There is something to work on. But the demand for them is already high. I don't mean Ukraine - before Ukraine yet," the Belarusian leader said.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 5:38:18 AM EDT
[#28]
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 5:53:56 AM EDT
[#29]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

So what situation are we involved in where 384 HIMARS will be inadequate, but 400 HIMARS will be adequate?
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Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By elcope:
Originally Posted By ludder093:
the US has over 400 HIMAR launchers. How does giving up 16 make them "limited"


The production rate from the manufacturer.

So what situation are we involved in where 384 HIMARS will be inadequate, but 400 HIMARS will be adequate?


Seeing as how 16 HIMARS are playing a major role in defeating the entire Russian army, I think we will be good with the 384 left in inventory.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 6:05:48 AM EDT
[#30]
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Originally Posted By R0N:

How many LRASMs and NSMs are we gettng a year and how does that number compare to the firing doctrine to conduct a threat task group take down?
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Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By stgdz:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By stgdz:
Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:
Originally Posted By R0N:


The drawn down of significant portions of systems that are planned to be in service for decade, when the on hand numbers prior to the drawdown were considered inadequate but what we could afford. The reduction and repurposing of current year dollars and ammunition from US forces for both training, readiness and capability development  to facilitate UKR efforts to name a few.  

Hypothetical question: Could the US support Taiwan in a similar level as Ukraine? If we ARE actually depleting OUR stocks of ordinance, what could we send to Taiwan?

Please excuse my most pessimistic conspiracy theorizing...but could China be killing two birds with one stone? Diminish Russia into being subservient to China and deplete all Western stocks that could/would have gone to Taiwan?

Probably total BS since I think once China moves on Taiwan, resupply of the Island would be too difficult or impossible.

It's a naval fight and I don't think our.magazine capacity is deep enough.  We have been only supplying ground weapons to Ukraine.

Taiwan would need a shit ton on harpoons and probably some atgm's to sink beaching boats.


That may or may not be true.  It would be ashamed if and when we get in the fight we realize our predictions of no need to gain lodgements, repeal enemy forces or take terrain end up being false and the munitions needed for that are on order and expected them in 18 months,.

Well Ron I think we all know the question to that last statement.


We still have rapid dragon floating around.  20 nsm's would put the hurt on china REAL fast.  Not sure at what point that program is at.  I know they tested it but not sure if they validated it.

How many LRASMs and NSMs are we gettng a year and how does that number compare to the firing doctrine to conduct a threat task group take down?


We should be buying those in vast quantities.

That said, thats not the stuff we've sent to Ukraine.

Other then having a bunch of Javelins and Stingers to gift to Taiwan for a resistance campaign, the stuff we've sent doesn't seem super relevant for fighting the Chicoms or arming Taiwan?
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 6:23:24 AM EDT
[#31]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Capta:

So what situation are we involved in where 384 HIMARS will be inadequate, but 400 HIMARS will be adequate?
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Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By elcope:
Originally Posted By ludder093:
the US has over 400 HIMAR launchers. How does giving up 16 make them "limited"


The production rate from the manufacturer.

So what situation are we involved in where 384 HIMARS will be inadequate, but 400 HIMARS will be adequate?


How are those launchers distributed? How many are mission capable?
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 6:25:57 AM EDT
[#32]
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Very cool. I've been keeping an eye on 30x113mm and its airburst rounds for awhile now.

I suspect 30mm will replace .50 and 40mm grenades on a lot of vehicles going forward, as it fits in pretty compact Remote Weapon Stations.

30x113 basically fires 40mm weight grenades at 50bmg velocities (240g @ 2750fps)

Link Posted: 10/22/2022 6:27:10 AM EDT
[#33]
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Originally Posted By panthermark:

Well, the spot wasn't aimed at the players, it is aimed at the fans.  Demographic of the fans are different than the players.
Being that the NBA cared enough to actually MAKE the spot in the first place, I'm not following your logic, especially since it is a former NBA player FROM Kyiv making the spot.  


You've changed from "audience" to "players".
How many "players" from any of our professional teams give a shit?  And do you care what professional players think in the first place?
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Originally Posted By panthermark:
Originally Posted By Et2ss:


15 to 16% of the NBA are wypipo. How many of them give a shit about Ukraine

Well, the spot wasn't aimed at the players, it is aimed at the fans.  Demographic of the fans are different than the players.
Being that the NBA cared enough to actually MAKE the spot in the first place, I'm not following your logic, especially since it is a former NBA player FROM Kyiv making the spot.  


You've changed from "audience" to "players".
How many "players" from any of our professional teams give a shit?  And do you care what professional players think in the first place?


After the clip aired, Shaquille O'Neil and Barkley, two very prominent Hall of Famers, were visibly touched by the video and spoke for several minutes about the situation.  Obviously not from a military/political standpoint--but on the humanistic side.  O'Neil stated "I'll be writing them a check."   Might be surprised at what the players and former players think.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 6:28:48 AM EDT
[#34]
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Originally Posted By Capta:
Russian invader gets laid the fuck out by drone:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeV3qvRkM4s
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Fuck… that dude was 100% smoked. If they find his helmet with the head in it, it will probably count as 2 KIAs.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 6:29:29 AM EDT
[#35]
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Originally Posted By apr67:


Taiwan is about the size of the territory that Russia holds (or maybe held, depending on how good of a day UA is having..)in Ukraine.  I don't know that the comparisons are workable, it would be I think a very very different conflict.
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Originally Posted By apr67:
Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:

Anyway, if the Chinese get a foothold in Taiwan, it will probably end up looking very similar as the fight in Ukraine.



Taiwan is about the size of the territory that Russia holds (or maybe held, depending on how good of a day UA is having..)in Ukraine.  I don't know that the comparisons are workable, it would be I think a very very different conflict.


Sadly everything I've read about Taiwan is that they are not nearly as hardcore about their defense as they should be. I'm not sure they will put up the same level of national resistance that Ukraine has.

Link Posted: 10/22/2022 6:30:53 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Easterner] [#36]
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 6:57:23 AM EDT
[#37]
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Originally Posted By Dominion21:


Ah - the Arena system.

Cannot confirm use and/or successful use in Ukraine.

However - this is interesting:  

- the following Russian info-video happens to include the very same video i mentioned, where an ATGM (believe it’s an NLAW) is fired downward at fairly close range.  (The Orcs even claim “fired by a Nazi from Azov” ).

The video implies that Arena was responsible for saving the tank:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXtq6-6eFQA

Given the Russian propensity to lie about almost everything, I have my doubts this was Arena.
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Originally Posted By Dominion21:
Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Originally Posted By Dominion21:
Originally Posted By m35ben:
Originally Posted By AeroEngineer:


Every ATGM in the Western world is getting a chance.
Have any not worked?


I think you know this already.

No, all have worked, but anecdotally,

- one video from an urban area (from an upper floor of a building) showed an NLAW fired downward onto a Russian T72; it struck the turret but did not “appear” to disable the tank as usual.  Looks like the operator we too close to the tank (operator error) and the warhead may not have armed/detonated.

- one Russian video showed Russians trying to use a Stugna-P on a Ukr truck.  They missed. Operator error.

Not every ATGM launch is filmed.  So there is no way to know.

Every system I’ve seen (there are a half dozen or so) has scored destructions of the T72 and other Russian tanks. I doubt the “Armata” would be any better against modern, western ATGMs.

But we will probably never know since the Russians can’t make more than a handful.


On another forum I'm a member on (a international mil weapons nerds forum) a german member said that some of the Russian tanks used in the very initial few days of the invasion had APS (active protection systems) which did prove effective at shooting down some RPG/AT/ATGM rounds.

Can anyone here confirm that?


Ah - the Arena system.

Cannot confirm use and/or successful use in Ukraine.

However - this is interesting:  

- the following Russian info-video happens to include the very same video i mentioned, where an ATGM (believe it’s an NLAW) is fired downward at fairly close range.  (The Orcs even claim “fired by a Nazi from Azov” ).

The video implies that Arena was responsible for saving the tank:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXtq6-6eFQA

Given the Russian propensity to lie about almost everything, I have my doubts this was Arena.


I think that NLAW failure was it being within the 20m arming range.

The guy who quoted me the APS/Arena being successfully used said it was the first few days of the invasion, whereas that video I recall was the later Azovstal/Maripol stage.

He's a guy I trust but would like to find confirmation. Whether APS systems actually work in combat is hugely relevant to the future of the tank and the ATGM.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 6:59:21 AM EDT
[#38]
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Originally Posted By Dracster:

Early in the war, There was a video of Russian vehicles crossing a bridge under artillery fire. There was an offset, airborne puff near one of the tanks that some believe was an APS getting an incoming.
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Originally Posted By Dracster:
Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Originally Posted By Dominion21:
Originally Posted By m35ben:
Originally Posted By AeroEngineer:


Every ATGM in the Western world is getting a chance.
Have any not worked?


I think you know this already.

No, all have worked, but anecdotally,

- one video from an urban area (from an upper floor of a building) showed an NLAW fired downward onto a Russian T72; it struck the turret but did not "appear" to disable the tank as usual.  Looks like the operator we too close to the tank (operator error) and the warhead may not have armed/detonated.

- one Russian video showed Russians trying to use a Stugna-P on a Ukr truck.  They missed. Operator error.

Not every ATGM launch is filmed.  So there is no way to know.

Every system I've seen (there are a half dozen or so) has scored destructions of the T72 and other Russian tanks. I doubt the "Armata" would be any better against modern, western ATGMs.

But we will probably never know since the Russians can't make more than a handful.


On another forum I'm a member on (a international mil weapons nerds forum) a german member said that some of the Russian tanks used in the very initial few days of the invasion had APS (active protection systems) which did prove effective at shooting down some RPG/AT/ATGM rounds.

Can anyone here confirm that?

Early in the war, There was a video of Russian vehicles crossing a bridge under artillery fire. There was an offset, airborne puff near one of the tanks that some believe was an APS getting an incoming.


Excellent, thank you.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 7:08:12 AM EDT
[#39]
Russian spies recruit on Leboncoin
https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/10/21/les-espions-russes-recrutent-sur-leboncoin_6146733_3210.html

French people were approached by agents of Moscow's secret service through classified ad sites, according to an interior ministry source.

Even young engineers need to make ends meet. Just hired in a large French civil-military technology company specializing in artificial intelligence, one of them was still publishing, in 2020, offers of mathematics courses on the Leboncoin.fr website. He was contacted by a consultant of Czech nationality who wanted to improve his knowledge. Lessons that took place once every three weeks during dinners at the restaurant whose date and place were, each time, fixed at the end of the course. The bill was paid in cash. But his student was not what he thought. It was, in reality, an attempt to recruit a Russian intelligence agent (SVR, from the ex-KGB) in charge of scientific and technological issues at the economic mission of his embassy in Paris.

In November 2020, this spy, Valentin Vladimirovich Zakharov, was deported after being caught red-handed, while handing over cash to this young engineer in exchange for analysis documents on advanced technologies. Invited to give his identity by French counter-intelligence officers, the Directorate General of Internal Security (DGSI), he initially maintained his legend of the "Czech consultant", before acknowledging his true identity when they presented him with a copy of his official diplomatic accreditation with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Details confirmed to Le Monde by a French diplomat posted in Paris.

This case, in turn, supports the use of a new practice of Russian espionage in France. According to a source from the Ministry of the Interior, "a dozen approaches of French nationals on typical sites Leboncoin.fr by officers dealing with the SVR" have been identified in recent years, until 2022. The spies of Moscow targeted, each time, "tender but high-potential profiles", students, graduates of prestigious schools or young professionals. All of them are likely to occupy, in the future, positions of responsibility in high-tech companies or important functions within the French administration. Their curiosity focused primarily on domestic policy, scientific research and technological innovations.

After a few mathematics lessons, Zakharov, the fake Czech consultant, offered the young engineer to increase his remuneration in exchange for reports and documents on scientific research in certain cutting-edge technological fields. At first, this young beginner full of future in the French military-industrial universe did not see malice in the questions qualified as "trivial and legitimate", because related to surveys made in France by the consulting firm of his "student". They were intended, in fact, to test his receptivity to solicitations outside the strict framework of the courses. Doubts reportedly arose when Valentin Zakharov insisted on obtaining sensitive information directly related to his work.


Link Posted: 10/22/2022 7:13:46 AM EDT
[#40]
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Originally Posted By Capta:


China will be a naval/air war.  Stingers, Javelins, and even GMLRS wont be major players.
But by all means keep trying to sow discord, comrade.
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Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By NEXT23:
Originally Posted By R0N:

How many LRASMs and NSMs are we gettng a year and how does that number compare to the firing doctrine to conduct a threat task group take down?



So are you saying we are being weakened on purpose?

Being weakened out of necessity, hoping we will have time to catch our breathe in 2 years?

Or I just need to buy stock in the MIC






Don’t know if it is deliberate, un-intended or wishful thinking that nothing will happen between now and the ability to rebuild.


The ability to rebuilt what?
Our stocks of M113s?
Our stocks of 1991 HARM missiles?
Please provide links to hard data showing that critical modern weapons systems/munitions are being drawn below critical levels.

USNI

Breaking Defense


CSiS


China will be a naval/air war.  Stingers, Javelins, and even GMLRS wont be major players.
But by all means keep trying to sow discord, comrade.



You asked for links, and you got links.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 7:15:11 AM EDT
[#41]
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Originally Posted By elcope:



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Originally Posted By elcope:
Originally Posted By Capta:


China will be a naval/air war.  Stingers, Javelins, and even GMLRS wont be major players.
But by all means keep trying to sow discord, comrade.





The internet is a great place.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 7:16:12 AM EDT
[#42]
DWs commenter believes that the mining of the dam is simply to discourage UA shelling of the road surface on the dam.  

Zelenskyy accuses Russia of plotting to destroy dam | DW News
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 7:17:44 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Birddog15] [#43]
ETA -- Hmmm I meant to quote the comment that using our munitions in South Korea will be to protect our Soldiers stationed there.  Somehow I screwed up the quote.     Anyways, here's my reply:


Good point, but we won't be using those weapons just to protect our soldiers in South Korea.  We will be using them to damage or destroy one of our global enemies.  Just as they are being used in Ukraine, with the added advantage that our guys/gals are not in harms way.  

I think we all agree that killing our enemies and damaging their ability to project their power is a good thing.   I think we can do that AND increase the war materials needed to do it, all at the same time.

If trouble with China does kick off, I agree that we might be left scrambling for some stuff we wish we still had. But I see war with China in the near term unlikely.  Their economy is not as strong as it once was and it is still very dependent on us buying their exports.  I believe that there are more downsides for them right now than upsides, and I expect they see that.  

On top of that, they are now watching our weapons doing what weapons are supposed to do.  I expect that to give them pause too.  This is just one more advantage to giving Ukraine some of our stuff- to make the Chinese think twice about a conflict with us in the near future.

I hope I am right, but like all of us, I might be wrong.  

Link Posted: 10/22/2022 7:20:29 AM EDT
[#44]
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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:


I think that NLAW failure was it being within the 20m arming range.

The guy who quoted me the APS/Arena being successfully used said it was the first few days of the invasion, whereas that video I recall was the later Azovstal/Maripol stage.

He's a guy I trust but would like to find confirmation. Whether APS systems actually work in combat is hugely relevant to the future of the tank and the ATGM.
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You remember correctly- this was in Mariupol.



Russians are such prolific bulllshitters.

Link Posted: 10/22/2022 7:22:49 AM EDT
[#45]
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Originally Posted By DanW:


One BIG problem with that.  The Norks' military is even more of a paper tiger than the Russian's.  And South Korea's military is one of the best in the world, not to mention best equipped.  This is why NK wanted nukes so badly.  They know they couldn't survive a conventional conflict.
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Originally Posted By DanW:
Originally Posted By DASJUDEN:


Not jumping in on either side of this shit show but if China and the US Navy and Airforce are actively engaged in hostilities there's a better than even chance Beijing tells the norks to push south and backs them up in the attempt. In that case we're going to need all the GMLRS we can get our hands on for counter battery at the very least. Thinking the conflict will be contained to solely naval or air engagements is overly optimistic.


One BIG problem with that.  The Norks' military is even more of a paper tiger than the Russian's.  And South Korea's military is one of the best in the world, not to mention best equipped.  This is why NK wanted nukes so badly.  They know they couldn't survive a conventional conflict.


South Korea also produces the K239 Chunmoo and their own version of GMLRS.

Poland is buying 288 of them and 23,000 rockets.

So there should be no shortage of rockets flying North.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 7:27:26 AM EDT
[#46]
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Originally Posted By voodochild:
So are those Belarusians on UKR side or RU side?  I know Belarus is on RU side.
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@voodoochild

"_____ volunteer" = fighting with Ukraine.

Link Posted: 10/22/2022 7:30:01 AM EDT
[#47]
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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:


South Korea also produces the K239 Chunmoo and their own version of GMLRS.

Poland is buying 288 of them and 23,000 rockets.

So there should be no shortage of rockets flying North.
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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Originally Posted By DanW:
Originally Posted By DASJUDEN:


Not jumping in on either side of this shit show but if China and the US Navy and Airforce are actively engaged in hostilities there's a better than even chance Beijing tells the norks to push south and backs them up in the attempt. In that case we're going to need all the GMLRS we can get our hands on for counter battery at the very least. Thinking the conflict will be contained to solely naval or air engagements is overly optimistic.


One BIG problem with that.  The Norks' military is even more of a paper tiger than the Russian's.  And South Korea's military is one of the best in the world, not to mention best equipped.  This is why NK wanted nukes so badly.  They know they couldn't survive a conventional conflict.


South Korea also produces the K239 Chunmoo and their own version of GMLRS.

Poland is buying 288 of them and 23,000 rockets.

So there should be no shortage of rockets flying North.


There are a lot of assumptions about a fight in the INDOPACOM from what will be used to where it will occur.
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 7:31:09 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime] [#48]

Link Posted: 10/22/2022 7:32:46 AM EDT
[#49]
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Originally Posted By DASJUDEN:


I don't know if you're being intentionally dense or you're just not aware that we have US troops stationed in South Korea while we don't have US troops in Ukraine. We're not providing them to South Korea we're providing them to ourselves. It's not going to be South Koreans using those GMLRS, it's going to be 8th Army.
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Originally Posted By DASJUDEN:
Originally Posted By Capta:

So why would we provide them to South Korea to help destroy one of our two strategic adversaries (China and its proxy NK) but not to Ukraine to destroy our other strategic adversary, Russia?


I don't know if you're being intentionally dense or you're just not aware that we have US troops stationed in South Korea while we don't have US troops in Ukraine. We're not providing them to South Korea we're providing them to ourselves. It's not going to be South Koreans using those GMLRS, it's going to be 8th Army.

So how many himars does 8th army need? If 16 is enough to fuck up the Russian army, when would they need 400 because 384 just isn’t enough against the North Korean army?

The US army GMLRS numbers are based on using them as a replacement for ‘dumb’ artillery. What we’ve seen in the Ukraine war is that the US needs to rethink how to use accurate long range firepower on the battlefield.

The longer overall answer is that supplying weapons to Ukraine now keeps the Russians from supporting China in a war against the US. 16 launchers now means we don’t need to keep 100 in reserve in Western Europe ‘just in case the Russians attack.”
Link Posted: 10/22/2022 7:40:04 AM EDT
[#50]
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Originally Posted By Fallen:

So how many himars does 8th army need? If 16 is enough to fuck up the Russian army, when would they need 400 because 384 just isn’t enough against the North Korean army?

The US army GMLRS numbers are based on using them as a replacement for ‘dumb’ artillery. What we’ve seen in the Ukraine war is that the US needs to rethink how to use accurate long range firepower on the battlefield.

The longer overall answer is that supplying weapons to Ukraine now keeps the Russians from supporting China in a war against the US. 16 launchers now means we don’t need to keep 100 in reserve in Western Europe ‘just in case the Russians attack.”
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https://www.huffpost.com/entry/north-korea-artillery_n_58f631a4e4b0b9e9848eb990
https://warisboring.com/forget-nukes-for-a-minute-north-koreas-artillery-still-is-dangerous-as-hell/


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