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Posted: 10/27/2021 8:27:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: The_Beer_Slayer]
This is now the active "shit News links, thanks to BerettaGuy: Originally Posted By BerettaGuy: LINKS TO UKRAINIAN NEWS SOURCES IN ENGLISH Kyiv Post Ukrainian News UKRInform EUROMAIDEN PRESS New Voice of Ukraine Kyiv Independent Ukraine World InterFax Ukraine UATV Ukrainian Journal Official Website of the President of Ukraine Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Save these links. I can't post all the headlines like I've done in the past - too much news and too often. Please @ me with additional stuff to be added here. I don't currently have time to properly curate this thread otherwise. New news link c/o berettaguy: Ukrainian Pravda https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ Stop fake, anti - disinformation site: https://www.stopfake.org/en/main/ |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 1:41:49 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: I respectfully disagree. The russians are idiots, but the ultra rich are going to do their best to keep what they have, and if nukes are launched, they will lose everything. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By stone-age: Suicide how? Is NATO going to respond with nukes? No. If NATO responds with conventional forces then russia will use more nukes. What is it that russia would be afraid of that hasn't been done to them already? Most isolated and sanctioned country on the planet, russian response "So what." Russia wants to win this no matter what. I respectfully disagree. The russians are idiots, but the ultra rich are going to do their best to keep what they have, and if nukes are launched, they will lose everything. The ultra-rich can flee and keep most of what they stole. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 1:43:42 PM EDT
[#2]
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Posted: 9/28/2022 1:46:31 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975:
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Posted: 9/28/2022 1:49:29 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jozsi: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/313126/clip_image002_jpg-2542636.JPG I will meet them one day..my ded nagyapam and his cousins. I will meet them someday. Survived the gulag and Szibéria...because they were outdoorsman to begin with and were used to hunting back on old Hungary. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jozsi: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Jozsi: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdwLntcXEAIVP5j?format=jpg&name=small NO ....you are not........ you are not fodder. When my Great Grandfather was agricultural and manufacturing minister for Komarom county in Hungary, the Orcs stripped nearly all of the industries and farming machinery from the region as war reparations in 1956. My great grandfather said FUCK YOU and NO...we need to eat....we need food and coal for heat. He LITERALLY threw the book at the communist advisors and their Orcs.... He died in 1958 along with my grandfather for defying them..... You can say FUCK it..you can live to see another day. Well said, you can see how they humiliate and dehumanize even their, it turns many into submissive sheep. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/313126/clip_image002_jpg-2542636.JPG I will meet them one day..my ded nagyapam and his cousins. I will meet them someday. Survived the gulag and Szibéria...because they were outdoorsman to begin with and were used to hunting back on old Hungary. My sincerest condolences Jozi, I know you'll see them again too. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 1:50:36 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975:
Well that's going to be epic each day and night. 
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Posted: 9/28/2022 1:51:12 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Not only that, but look ahead. Russia’s economy is crumbling and their political environment is rapidly veering toward hard fascism. US emigrants will never be seen as “Russian” and will always be alien no matter how much propaganda they’ve swallowed. The useful idiots that went over there in the 20s-40s were basically all disappeared. It’ll happen again when the “stab in the back” rhetoric really gets going. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By kncook: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Would have to be a pretty big idiot to be in Russia right now anyway. Kidnapping/extortion bait. Not only that, but look ahead. Russia’s economy is crumbling and their political environment is rapidly veering toward hard fascism. US emigrants will never be seen as “Russian” and will always be alien no matter how much propaganda they’ve swallowed. The useful idiots that went over there in the 20s-40s were basically all disappeared. It’ll happen again when the “stab in the back” rhetoric really gets going. Even Lee Harvey Oswald came back, that's revealing. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 1:53:16 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Well that's going to be epic each day and night. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By M-1975:
Well that's going to be epic each day and night. They need long range rockets now. The sooner the better. |
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CA, USA
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Posted: 9/28/2022 1:56:40 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By agillig: Just a thought, but there are enough of those old guys that they should be able to put up a fight against the local branch that is forcing them to fight. Yes, they might all die, but they could cause enough losses to persuade their sons or grandsons from getting forced into service next year. They'll have to club their way out. I doubt they get ammo until they hit the lines. The women know. Yet history, especially European, is war was fought by the nobodies. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 1:58:00 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Bassgasm: A lot of guys here talk about this scenario as if it's inevitable. It's possible, but I don't think it's very probable. Even IF Putin wants to flip the table and go out blazin' since he's going to die anyways (this is a much bigger IF than Putin gets credit for), he doesn't have absolute power. He's surrounded by oligarchs and senior military and government officials that don't share his outlook on an inevitable death. In order for this scenario to happen, all of these things must happen: 1) Putin has to give the order. 2) Others in positions of power must comply with the order. 3) Those further down the chain must also comply with the order. 4) The complex systems must work. That's iffy. Beyond that, there's nobody forcing Russia to surrender. There are no foreign powers planning to drive into Moscow, raise their colors over the Kremlin, and hang Putin from the gallows. That whole surrender narrative is false. Russia isn't facing a choice between surrender and nuclear hellfire. They're facing a choice between withdraw and nuclear hellfire. That's a pretty big difference. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Bassgasm: Originally Posted By Bizzarolibe: Originally Posted By lorazepam: As bad as some in here want it, most likely there will be no nukes launched. It would be suicide, and they know it. I haven’t seen anyone here cheering on the launching of nukes, so I’m not sure where you’re getting this, but either way, Russia is already dead. It’s the equivalent of murdering someone’s wife and kids and then suing for peace. The world—and especially Ukraine—aren’t having it, nor should they. Russian knows this. So they can either surrender, be reparation’d into the ground, and carved up like a thanksgiving turkey, or they can suffer essentially the same fate but take some of us out with them. If you’re a despotic psychopath leading a nation of alcoholic sociopaths, which option do you think is more appealing? It’s naive to project western motivations and values onto Russian culture. Theirs is a society in which independent thinkers with a functional moral compass have been methodically culled over centuries. They will do nothing to stop Putin. A lot of guys here talk about this scenario as if it's inevitable. It's possible, but I don't think it's very probable. Even IF Putin wants to flip the table and go out blazin' since he's going to die anyways (this is a much bigger IF than Putin gets credit for), he doesn't have absolute power. He's surrounded by oligarchs and senior military and government officials that don't share his outlook on an inevitable death. In order for this scenario to happen, all of these things must happen: 1) Putin has to give the order. 2) Others in positions of power must comply with the order. 3) Those further down the chain must also comply with the order. 4) The complex systems must work. That's iffy. Beyond that, there's nobody forcing Russia to surrender. There are no foreign powers planning to drive into Moscow, raise their colors over the Kremlin, and hang Putin from the gallows. That whole surrender narrative is false. Russia isn't facing a choice between surrender and nuclear hellfire. They're facing a choice between withdraw and nuclear hellfire. That's a pretty big difference. I think a strong distinction exists between “cheerleading for nuclear war” and stating objective evaluations of the situation. No one serious wants nuclear war of any form. However, given Russia’s behavior, nuclear threats, and their situation, it is (IMO) extremely likely that the west is considering a first strike of some form. It doesn’t have to be nuclear but it’s not impossible. Frankly it would be irresponsible of the West NOT to consider a first strike. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:01:37 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975:
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:01:41 PM EDT
[#11]
 Titan drone jammer. https://bluehalo.com/product/titan/  Titan™ establishes a hemisphere of protection well beyond line of sight in less than 5 minutes without operator training or calibration burden. Titan™ has been extensively tested, deployed, and operationally validated by dozens of military, government, and third-party labs to ensure mission success. Titan™ C-UAS equips any operator with immediate situational awareness and force protection in under 5 minutes. By harnessing industry-leading artificial intelligence and machine learning, Titan’s optionally-manned operation and autonomous countermeasure escalation turn any soldier or first responder into an effective C-UAS defender. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:01:56 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CPT_CAVEMAN: Will they even get ammo before they get to the frontline? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CPT_CAVEMAN: Originally Posted By agillig: Just a thought, but there are enough of those old guys that they should be able to put up a fight against the local branch that is forcing them to fight. Yes, they might all die, but they could cause enough losses to persuade their sons or grandsons from getting forced into service next year. Will they even get ammo before they get to the frontline? Won't ever happen. This is the country whose sons are leaving their wounded to die on the battlefield today; you think their dads and grand-dads are any more selfless and brave? They are too busy living at the bottom of a bottle, most likely. We would have better luck offering the Ukrainians $100 in credit for every Russian AK collected off the battlefield, whether from 200s/300s, or from surrendered prisoners. If I were King for a Day, CMP would collect the AKs and sell them on the US market, as a fundraiser for the Ukrainians to buy minty-fresh M4s from US manufacturers. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:02:35 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By borderpatrol: They need long range rockets now. The sooner the better. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By borderpatrol: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By M-1975:
Well that's going to be epic each day and night. They need long range rockets now. The sooner the better. I certainly agree, hoping some ATACMS are in that package. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:05:15 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Multiple Russian barracks getting hit today, expect high casualty count for tomorrow.
Welcome to the wheat fields motherfucker! |
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MN, USA
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:05:16 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975:
So what is the strategy here with doubling the himars? Are they going to stop using them on strategic assest and start going for fixed tactical locations, Aka trenches? |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:06:10 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: BINGO. A first strike against their nukes has to be on the table. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: This is how I feel as well. Suicide how? Is NATO going to respond with nukes? No. If NATO responds with conventional forces then russia will use more nukes. What is it that russia would be afraid of that hasn't been done to them already? Most isolated and sanctioned country on the planet, russian response "So what." Russia wants to win this no matter what. Interdiction of their nukes, either with or without the use of nukes in kind. We can do it. They can't. BINGO. A first strike against their nukes has to be on the table. Serious question: How could that be done without RU lobbing some nukes toward us or whoever? If we launch nukes first targeted at their launch points, they will see ours and launch as well. Could we get aircraft into their airspace and strike without them seeing us coming and shoot down the aircraft? I'm assuming there would be no way for us to get people on the ground to the deed. I'm also assuming we don't have some sort of star trek lasers on satellites that could do it. I'm not saying you are wrong, I'm just not comprehending how we could first strike their nukes. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:08:07 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FduKyzYWIAEHQBF?format=png&name=small Dude was just flexing and showing off his pro player skills. Next up, the 360 noscope! |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:13:36 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Yup. I'm 99% sure NATO will buttfuck Russia without even needing nukes. Biden may be a fool, but he's also not a pushover- I think he's totally capable of ordering severe strikes on Russian forces if they are stupid enough to use nukes. What will NOT happen is large strikes on civilian centers. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By stone-age: Suicide how? Is NATO going to respond with nukes? No. If NATO responds with conventional forces then russia will use more nukes. What is it that russia would be afraid of that hasn't been done to them already? Most isolated and sanctioned country on the planet, russian response "So what." Russia wants to win this no matter what. I respectfully disagree. The russians are idiots, but the ultra rich are going to do their best to keep what they have, and if nukes are launched, they will lose everything. Yup. I'm 99% sure NATO will buttfuck Russia without even needing nukes. Biden may be a fool, but he's also not a pushover- I think he's totally capable of ordering severe strikes on Russian forces if they are stupid enough to use nukes. What will NOT happen is large strikes on civilian centers. It's time for Biden's resignation. |
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USA
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:14:21 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stgdz: I'm wondering if the Russians will ever mutiny. I doubt they ever will seeing the stories about the last 20 years and the absolute hopeless they were told. But every man has a breaking point. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stgdz: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdwLntcXEAIVP5j?format=jpg&name=small I'm wondering if the Russians will ever mutiny. I doubt they ever will seeing the stories about the last 20 years and the absolute hopeless they were told. But every man has a breaking point. I'm wondering that no one is shooting the officers. 
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:14:37 PM EDT
[Last Edit: _disconnector_]
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Kipple: Serious question: How could that be done without RU lobbing some nukes toward us or whoever? If we launch nukes first targeted at their launch points, they will see ours and launch as well. Could we get aircraft into their airspace and strike without them seeing us coming and shoot down the aircraft? I'm assuming there would be no way for us to get people on the ground to the deed. I'm also assuming we don't have some sort of star trek lasers on satellites that could do it. I'm not saying you are wrong, I'm just not comprehending how we could first strike their nukes. But that's a small part of how a first strike works. A first strike works by positioning assets physically close to Russia (usually subs, SRBM, and stealthy cruise missiles). Someone figures out a ToT counterforce launch sequence and the launches occur from so close to Russia that they don't have a chance to respond before their nukes are nuked. We then sink their nuke capable subs/naval assets and buckle down to kill the stragglers with THAAD and Patriot batteries. But it won't work with Russia. A significant chunk of their ICBMs are on mobile launchers that are scattered all over and we won't get enough of them to keep us and our allies safe. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:16:27 PM EDT
[#21]
20minutes ago.
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:16:37 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chaingun: Every nuclear launch drill is considered real until the stand down order is given Russia is likely rehearsing this multiple times a day Why would you think that? If it is happening, it would be reported. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:17:55 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By THOT_Vaccine: Much of the lead up to WWII was predicated on the principal that Japan and Germany "Could not possibly be that stupid." I have no doubt that Vladdy Daddy is lobbying China heavily to jump into his shitstorm... Iran has obviously swallowed that lure whole. Vlad sees a way out. It just involves other countries absorbing some of the damage of a global war. I wonder of China is that stupid?  China wants nothing to do with this shitshow. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:20:36 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stgdz: I'm wondering if the Russians will ever mutiny. I doubt they ever will seeing the stories about the last 20 years and the absolute hopeless they were told. But every man has a breaking point. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:25:06 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AeroE: Biden is not capable of a decision. His handlers will be in increasingly close watch to steer him away from any substantial decision, comment, or action. It's time for Biden's resignation. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AeroE: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By stone-age: Suicide how? Is NATO going to respond with nukes? No. If NATO responds with conventional forces then russia will use more nukes. What is it that russia would be afraid of that hasn't been done to them already? Most isolated and sanctioned country on the planet, russian response "So what." Russia wants to win this no matter what. I respectfully disagree. The russians are idiots, but the ultra rich are going to do their best to keep what they have, and if nukes are launched, they will lose everything. Yup. I'm 99% sure NATO will buttfuck Russia without even needing nukes. Biden may be a fool, but he's also not a pushover- I think he's totally capable of ordering severe strikes on Russian forces if they are stupid enough to use nukes. What will NOT happen is large strikes on civilian centers. It's time for Biden's resignation. He's an angry old man with a huge ego. |
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USA
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:25:28 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093: Didn't someone drive a tank over their commander? Very early in the war, but could be propaganda. Who knows? |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:25:58 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Bizzarolibe: If Russia withdrew right now, it would still be a dead country. Ukraine wants its pound of flesh, and the international community will make sure it gets it. The leadership will be tried (and convicted) for war crimes. Restitution would be paid out to the tune of billions, leaving Russia in crippling debt. The West would subvert and destroy its institutions, it would be demilitarized (one of the many likely demands before sanctions would end), and China would carve out whatever they could of Russia's dead carcass. There is no scenario in which a Russian withdrawal leaves Russia intact, or even partly intact. They know that. The only question is whether they are humiliated and die slowly, or whether they go out in a blaze of nuclear fire. I give them a 40/60 shot of using NBC's in some capacity, so I still think it's slightly more likely that an internal power struggle occurs that, for one reason or another, precludes the possibility of nukes flying, but as long as Putin and his loyalists remain in power, I put that likelihood above 50%. I will disagree there to some extent. But yes, even if they withdrew now there would be serious Let’s assume that the Russian Army executes Putin, withdraws to the pre-2014 borders, and maybe mubles an apology. This is best case scenario. Positives that can happen quickly: Russia stops losing irreplaceable men and material (obviously) which then helps them to hold on to other peripheral republics. Sanctions can go away tomorrow, or nearly tomorrow, and trade can resume. Their refusenik population can return and probably would. Gas export can resume to fill existing contracts and provide cash flow. Negatives that are probably unavoidable: Economic damage from foreign capital flight is probably not reversible in the short term. Demand for reparations to Ukraine will likely be tied to lifting of sanctions/export of gas. Shattered Army may still be incapable of holding on to places like Georgia/Moldova. Loss of influence among CIS states. Belarus and Kazakhstan probably foremost among them. War crimes trials are a given and will be politically unpopular within Russia. The likelihood that the world finds out what has been going on in the occupied territories means that there will be very, very little sympathy for Russia internationally. A diminished Russia is best case for them and will be absolutely demanded by the West. But a diminshed Russia could survive because of realpolitik - the West probably wants to use Russia as a counterweight to China, with the latter seeing strong opportunities in eastern Russia. |
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USA
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:26:00 PM EDT
[#28]
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:27:23 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: The ultra-rich can flee and keep most of what they stole. Where will they go, and how will they keep what they have? Nukes start flying, the world economy is fucked. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:27:25 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stgdz: He offered to.mediate between the nations
 Attached File |
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CA, USA
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:28:45 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By _disconnector_: We can definitely get aircraft into their airspace without them knowing it. But that's a small part of how a first strike works. A first strike works by positioning assets physically close to Russia (usually subs, SRBM, and stealthy cruise missiles). Someone figures out a ToT counterforce launch sequence and the launches occur from so close to Russia that they don't have a chance to respond before their nukes are nuked. We then sink their nuke capable subs/naval assets and buckle down to kill the stragglers with THAAD and Patriot batteries. But it won't work with Russia. A significant chunk of their ICBMs are on mobile launchers that are scattered all over and we won't get enough of them to keep us and our allies safe. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By _disconnector_: Originally Posted By Kipple: Serious question: How could that be done without RU lobbing some nukes toward us or whoever? If we launch nukes first targeted at their launch points, they will see ours and launch as well. Could we get aircraft into their airspace and strike without them seeing us coming and shoot down the aircraft? I'm assuming there would be no way for us to get people on the ground to the deed. I'm also assuming we don't have some sort of star trek lasers on satellites that could do it. I'm not saying you are wrong, I'm just not comprehending how we could first strike their nukes. But that's a small part of how a first strike works. A first strike works by positioning assets physically close to Russia (usually subs, SRBM, and stealthy cruise missiles). Someone figures out a ToT counterforce launch sequence and the launches occur from so close to Russia that they don't have a chance to respond before their nukes are nuked. We then sink their nuke capable subs/naval assets and buckle down to kill the stragglers with THAAD and Patriot batteries. But it won't work with Russia. A significant chunk of their ICBMs are on mobile launchers that are scattered all over and we won't get enough of them to keep us and our allies safe. We started with 132 B-2s in the plans and reduced that to 21. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:29:01 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Bizzarolibe: I haven’t seen anyone here cheering on the launching of nukes, so I’m not sure where you’re getting this, but either way, Russia is already dead. It’s the equivalent of murdering someone’s wife and kids and then suing for peace. The world—and especially Ukraine—aren’t having it, nor should they. Russian knows this. So they can either surrender, be reparation’d into the ground, and carved up like a thanksgiving turkey, or they can suffer essentially the same fate but take some of us out with them. If you’re a despotic psychopath leading a nation of alcoholic sociopaths, which option do you think is more appealing? It’s naive to project western motivations and values onto Russian culture. Theirs is a society in which independent thinkers with a functional moral compass have been methodically culled over centuries. They will do nothing to stop Putin. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Bizzarolibe: Originally Posted By lorazepam: As bad as some in here want it, most likely there will be no nukes launched. It would be suicide, and they know it. I haven’t seen anyone here cheering on the launching of nukes, so I’m not sure where you’re getting this, but either way, Russia is already dead. It’s the equivalent of murdering someone’s wife and kids and then suing for peace. The world—and especially Ukraine—aren’t having it, nor should they. Russian knows this. So they can either surrender, be reparation’d into the ground, and carved up like a thanksgiving turkey, or they can suffer essentially the same fate but take some of us out with them. If you’re a despotic psychopath leading a nation of alcoholic sociopaths, which option do you think is more appealing? It’s naive to project western motivations and values onto Russian culture. Theirs is a society in which independent thinkers with a functional moral compass have been methodically culled over centuries. They will do nothing to stop Putin. #PattonWasRight |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:29:17 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheResurrector: We own a house and cars here. MIL is old and in bad health so we are helping her. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheResurrector: Originally Posted By LoBrau: Originally Posted By TheResurrector: Originally Posted By Easterner: Originally Posted By Brok3n: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://www.foxnews.com/world/americans-should-flee-russia-immediately-wake-mobilization-us-embassy-urges The U.S. Embassy in Moscow has urged all Americans in Russia to flee the nation following President Vladimir Putin’s "partial mobilization" decree last week. "Russia may refuse to acknowledge dual nationals’ U.S. citizenship, deny their access to U.S. consular assistance, prevent their departure from Russia, and conscript dual nationals for military service," the embassy warned Tuesday. The embassy warned that the ability to leave Russia has already become increasingly difficult with limited commercial flights and crowded border check points. "Those residing or traveling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain," the statement released by the embassy added. Getting interesting... @TheResurrector I don't have dual citizenship so that doesn't apply to me. Waiting on them to approve my 'temporary residency' at this point. @Easterner What is the upside for you to staying? We own a house and cars here. MIL is old and in bad health so we are helping her. Family reasons I can respect. But worrying about house and cars - eh. Things can be replaced. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:29:42 PM EDT
[#34]
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:33:47 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: I will disagree there to some extent. But yes, even if they withdrew now there would be serious Let’s assume that the Russian Army executes Putin, withdraws to the pre-2014 borders, and maybe mubles an apology. This is best case scenario. Positives that can happen quickly: Russia stops losing irreplaceable men and material (obviously) which then helps them to hold on to other peripheral republics. Sanctions can go away tomorrow, or nearly tomorrow, and trade can resume. Their refusenik population can return and probably would. Gas export can resume to fill existing contracts and provide cash flow. Negatives that are probably unavoidable: Economic damage from foreign capital flight is probably not reversible in the short term. Demand for reparations to Ukraine will likely be tied to lifting of sanctions/export of gas. Shattered Army may still be incapable of holding on to places like Georgia/Moldova. Loss of influence among CIS states. Belarus and Kazakhstan probably foremost among them. War crimes trials are a given and will be politically unpopular within Russia. The likelihood that the world finds out what has been going on in the occupied territories means that there will be very, very little sympathy for Russia internationally. A diminished Russia is best case for them and will be absolutely demanded by the West. But a diminshed Russia could survive because of realpolitik - the West probably wants to use Russia as a counterweight to China, with the latter seeing strong opportunities in eastern Russia. There won't be any gas flow in the pipelines to europe. They are out of service. If russia went home tomorrow, their economy and future are thoroughly fucked. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:34:24 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Probably rules out the UK, France and Sweden as well. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Originally Posted By 74HC: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: The pipeline is incredibly robust: "Each line of the pipeline consists of about 100,000 24-tonne concrete-weight coated steel pipes laid on the seabed. The pipelines have a constant internal diameter of 1.153m, according to Nord Stream. Sections lie at a depth of around 80-110m." https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/27/qa-what-is-known-so-far-about-the-nord-stream-gas-pipeline-leak My guess is some dudes in a generic/deniable fishing boat with dive gear affixed a 100kg charge to the pipes. I dont think it was Russia. Crank up the ole noodle and think again. It's highly unlikely commercial divers and fishing boats can amass that much explosives to be measured 1.9 and 2.3 on the richter scale. This is a state actor and one with limited resources, limited thinking, and takes crude approaches. This rules out USA because they can sabotage the pipeline without registering anything on the richter scale. Probably rules out the UK, France and Sweden as well. Why in the fuck would we blow up the pipeline using ultra sleek methods whereas a big bomb would do the trick. The last thing we’d do in some covert op is use a method that online top of the line ultra high tech nations and forces could pull off. When having a politician assassinated in some black op do you use a cruise missile or a pipe bomb if both are feasible? |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:34:38 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Kipple: Serious question: How could that be done without RU lobbing some nukes toward us or whoever? If we launch nukes first targeted at their launch points, they will see ours and launch as well. Could we get aircraft into their airspace and strike without them seeing us coming and shoot down the aircraft? I'm assuming there would be no way for us to get people on the ground to the deed. I'm also assuming we don't have some sort of star trek lasers on satellites that could do it. I'm not saying you are wrong, I'm just not comprehending how we could first strike their nukes. Just going by the performance of Russia in this war - We absolutely can get aircraft anywhere we want in Russia. We absolutely can get airborne units to some places. We absolutely could destroy most of what makes it to launch. They absolutely would get some through. They are bad, very, very bad at war against a tier 3/4 combatant. We are terrible at nation building, not war. HUGE difference. The issue is you give China a lot of information on our best stuff if we do that. You almost have to, in AR!% and GD fashion, get both. We are absolutely not ready for that. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:34:49 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By _disconnector_: … But it won't work with Russia. A significant chunk of their ICBMs are on mobile launchers that are scattered all over and we won't get enough of them to keep us and our allies safe. Yep, it is the mobile ground launchers that are the problem. Everything else can be hit within their reaction window. Our interception capabilities are not up to that task yet, and Europe’s are almost nonexistent. |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:35:13 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: I think a strong distinction exists between “cheerleading for nuclear war” and stating objective evaluations of the situation. No one serious wants nuclear war of any form. However, given Russia’s behavior, nuclear threats, and their situation, it is (IMO) extremely likely that the west is considering a first strike of some form. It doesn’t have to be nuclear but it’s not impossible. Frankly it would be irresponsible of the West NOT to consider a first strike. Agreed. I wonder if someone (Belarus) has been trying to tell Putin that if he keeps trying to convince the West that he will use nukes, they may eventually believe him and do something about it. It would be stupid for NATO to plan to respond AFTER Russia nukes Berlin and London. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:38:36 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
US aid to Ukraine is basically a humongous field trial for a bunch of stuff that we are going to need against China, which will be refined and improved before then, and I am here for it. 
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:39:08 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Yep, it is the mobile ground launchers that are the problem. Everything else can be hit within their reaction window. Our interception capabilities are not up to that task yet, and Europe’s are almost nonexistent. I personally am not worried about the mobile launched nukes. I doubt they have been maintained for the years they have been bouncing around in those shitty trucks. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:43:07 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By xd341: 1.5 inch wall, with 4 inches of concrete over that. The circumstance dictate that it was blown. Whether you can discern on a seismograph the difference between HE and a pressure vessel at 1500 pissies rupturing is an open question. I'm not a demo guy but I wouldn't think it would take that much to rupture that pipe with cutting charges. The US probably has 50 years of sound recordings from SOSUS, plus whatever has come after that. Somebody knows, probably with a pretty high degree of certainty. Now what we DO with that information is another matter. 
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USA
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:46:20 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: A diminished Russia is best case for them and will be absolutely demanded by the West. But a diminshed Russia could survive because of realpolitik - the West probably wants to use Russia as a counterweight to China, with the latter seeing strong opportunities in eastern Russia. Interesting. i understand the theory, but it strikes me as not much difference if china outright controls resources in the russian east or works with a broke and beaten russia to access them. I guess i don't see a way forward where russia keeps the chinese from doing anything. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:46:47 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Why would you think that? If it is happening, it would be reported. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By Chaingun: Every nuclear launch drill is considered real until the stand down order is given Russia is likely rehearsing this multiple times a day Why would you think that? If it is happening, it would be reported. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:48:36 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Bizzarolibe: I haven’t seen anyone here cheering on the launching of nukes, so I’m not sure where you’re getting this, but either way, Russia is already dead. It’s the equivalent of murdering someone’s wife and kids and then suing for peace. The world—and especially Ukraine—aren’t having it, nor should they. Russian knows this. So they can either surrender, be reparation’d into the ground, and carved up like a thanksgiving turkey, or they can suffer essentially the same fate but take some of us out with them. If you’re a despotic psychopath leading a nation of alcoholic sociopaths, which option do you think is more appealing? It’s naive to project western motivations and values onto Russian culture. Theirs is a society in which independent thinkers with a functional moral compass have been methodically culled over centuries. They will do nothing to stop Putin. QFT |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:49:46 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975:
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:52:20 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: I personally am not worried about the mobile launched nukes. I doubt they have been maintained for the years they have been bouncing around in those shitty trucks. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By Jack67: Yep, it is the mobile ground launchers that are the problem. Everything else can be hit within their reaction window. Our interception capabilities are not up to that task yet, and Europe's are almost nonexistent. I personally am not worried about the mobile launched nukes. I doubt they have been maintained for the years they have been bouncing around in those shitty trucks. |
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:54:09 PM EDT
[#48]
Apparently these 18 HIMARS won't get to Ukraine for about a year or two. The AP article says they're contracts for purchases.
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:55:21 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I respectfully disagree. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By xd341: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Interdiction of their nukes, either with or without the use of nukes in kind. We can do it. They can't. I respectfully disagree.  
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Posted: 9/28/2022 2:55:59 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chaingun: The US and all nuclear countries do this drill I babysat nukes for a few years, I understand how it goes for us. We have a professional military. Drunken moron conscripts are not the same. Their equipment and maintenance suck. |
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