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Posted: 10/27/2021 8:27:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: The_Beer_Slayer]
It says it's been moved, but the link just takes me to the Community page. What gives?


This is now the active "shit (might be) is definitely happening in Ukraine" thread.

News links, thanks to BerettaGuy:
Originally Posted By BerettaGuy:
LINKS TO UKRAINIAN NEWS SOURCES IN ENGLISH

Kyiv Post

Ukrainian News

UKRInform

EUROMAIDEN PRESS

New Voice of Ukraine

Kyiv Independent

Ukraine World

InterFax Ukraine

UATV

Ukrainian Journal

Official Website of the President of Ukraine

Ukrainian Ministry of Defense

Save these links. I can't post all the headlines like I've done in the past - too much news and too often.
View Quote


Please @ me with additional stuff to be added here. I don't currently have time to properly curate this thread otherwise.

New news link c/o berettaguy:

Ukrainian Pravda
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/

Stop fake, anti - disinformation site:
https://www.stopfake.org/en/main/
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:06:22 PM EDT
[#1]

Superbonker 9K!
The Gap Band - You Dropped A Bomb On Me (Official Music Video)
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:06:31 PM EDT
[#2]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


You read that in an English accent didn't you.
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By Swampgrass:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By Red_Blue:
Those dismissing the “partial mobilization” as impossible and claim that the mass mobilization system collapsed with the SU have not kept up with recent actual academic research into Russian Armed Forces. The fact remains that the RF has 33 million military age males available for service (not disqualified) of which pool about 8 million had actually served in the military. According to western estimates, about 2 million of those are listed in the inactive reserve and less than 100 000 in the new (since 2021) active reserve system BARS.

Those less than 100k have received training monthly and are like USNG or USAR, former active duty who continue to serve as volunteer reserve. Of the remaining 1.9 or so million, the first to be mobilized is the grade with the youngest soldiers having the least time from active service, for rank and file (eq. “enlisted”) and NCOs that’s at most 35 year olds. So you are not going to see grandpas like in one of the volunteer units.

And the material situation remains to be seen, but any talk about Mosins and T55s is just ludicrous. Russian army didn’t adopt the AK-12 or any of the earlier Russian era modernized variants because they have millions of AK-74s and AKMs in stock. Even western analysts agree that Russia has over 10k tanks in storage and is only missing (reservist) crews and supplies for them. And that 10k of T-80, T-72 and T-64 is most likely an underestimate, because before Russia gave LPR and DPR T-62s, most analysts claimed all T-62s had been scrapped.

The fact that Putin announced just 300k to be called up aligns well with the difficulties in providing refresher training and equipping new troops during the “voluntary” contract recruitment campaign thus far. It should be entirely within their capability to bring those troops in as attrition replacements of existing units in a month or so. Any further mobilization beyond that is not impossible, but will likely take more time and effort.



This all sounds very impressive on paper, but during this entire war, the Russians have shown they can't really move any of their ground forces much beyond 70km from any rail lines they control.  They also have a deteriorating logistical problem exacerbated by the recent acquisition of precision artillery systems.

I would expect more of this.




https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/427921/maxresdefault__2__jpg-2534199.JPG


You read that in an English accent didn't you.


100%.

Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:06:37 PM EDT
[#3]
20 minutes ago.



Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:07:51 PM EDT
[#4]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Bizzarolibe:
I've said from the beginning that this ends one of two ways: a limited nuclear exchange or a full-blown nuclear exchange. I'm generally not a doomer, not a prepper, and have supported UKR since the beginning (and still do).

I don't know what the right move is at this point to be perfectly honest.
View Quote


Have as much non perishable food and water on hand as possible.  Have a shelter that has a lot of mass around it that you can stay in for 96hours post detonation. (36” of earth or concrete, or wood/books, etc in the center of your home.)  buy a lugable loo. Buy a radiator meter to check supplies and food stuffs.  Have iodine liquid and potassium iodide pills on hand. Have dawn dish washing liquid on hand too.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:09:04 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#5]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By stgdz:

At what point do they run out of missiles we can supply though?
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Originally Posted By stgdz:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

At what point do they run out of missiles we can supply though?


The U.S military said supply is not a problem to Ukraine.  The Ukrainians were assessed to be using them at an easy to sustain rate.

We had 50,000 precision rounds at the beginning of this year in storage.
We make over 10,000 rounds per year.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:10:06 PM EDT
[#6]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By MNGearhead:



Holy Shit
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Originally Posted By MNGearhead:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdKs_O6X0AMTjHZ?format=png&name=900x900



Holy Shit
That means UKR's count is accurate and that it is KIA x 2 wounded.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:10:51 PM EDT
[#7]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Red_Blue:

That remains to be seen. The main problem during the opening stages appears to have been poor morale. That can be changed very quickly. It's likely that the contract soldiers have also fought much better when the refusenik sanction was changed from no pay to jail and then (alledgedly) to being shot for desertion.


The only place there is “WWII equipment” in Russia is museums.
View Quote

To be clear, Russia has still not declared war, and I have seen no evidence that the legal conditions governing contract soldiers have changed, in the sense that they serve at will.  If you have contrary information please post.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:12:47 PM EDT
[#8]
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:14:25 PM EDT
[#9]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
View Quote

I find it interesting that Russia has apparently been unable to destroy even a single HIMARS / M270 as of yet. You'd think that would be a very, very high priority.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:16:02 PM EDT
[#10]

In the time leading up to Russian President Vladimir Putin's expected speech to the nation on Tuesday night, Google searches for the Russian phrase "How to leave Russia" spiked in the country.

The peak for searches was around 6 pm Moscow time, according to Telegram channel Mozhem Obyasnit, which first flagged the increase.

Putin was supposed to make his address Tuesday night, but moved it to Wednesday morning. He then announced a partial military mobilization of 300,000 reservists that would be drafted to fight in Ukraine.

Before his expected speech on Tuesday, Russian lawmakers had passed legislation around "martial law" and "mobilization," that likely prompted the Google searches. Google is only the second most-visited search engine in Russia behind Yandex.

In a tweet referring to the spike in Google searches, Ukraine's Ministry of Defense tweeted, "The russians were given 12 hours of rest, so Google could answer all the questions, including the question of what is the average life expectancy of a russian soldier in Ukraine."
View Quote


Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:16:19 PM EDT
[#11]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By fisterkev:
I find it interesting that Russia has apparently been unable to destroy even a single HIMARS / M270 as of yet. You'd think that would be a very, very high priority.
View Quote

No, comrade, they have destroyed 44 HIMARS so far. Russian State Media says so.

Russia Stronk!
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:16:42 PM EDT
[#12]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



This all sounds very impressive on paper, but during this entire war, the Russians have shown they can't really move any of their ground forces much beyond 70km from any rail lines they control.  They also have a deteriorating logistical problem exacerbated by the recent acquisition of precision artillery systems.

I would expect more of this.

View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By Red_Blue:
Those dismissing the “partial mobilization” as impossible and claim that the mass mobilization system collapsed with the SU have not kept up with recent actual academic research into Russian Armed Forces. The fact remains that the RF has 33 million military age males available for service (not disqualified) of which pool about 8 million had actually served in the military. According to western estimates, about 2 million of those are listed in the inactive reserve and less than 100 000 in the new (since 2021) active reserve system BARS.

Those less than 100k have received training monthly and are like USNG or USAR, former active duty who continue to serve as volunteer reserve. Of the remaining 1.9 or so million, the first to be mobilized is the grade with the youngest soldiers having the least time from active service, for rank and file (eq. “enlisted”) and NCOs that’s at most 35 year olds. So you are not going to see grandpas like in one of the volunteer units.

And the material situation remains to be seen, but any talk about Mosins and T55s is just ludicrous. Russian army didn’t adopt the AK-12 or any of the earlier Russian era modernized variants because they have millions of AK-74s and AKMs in stock. Even western analysts agree that Russia has over 10k tanks in storage and is only missing (reservist) crews and supplies for them. And that 10k of T-80, T-72 and T-64 is most likely an underestimate, because before Russia gave LPR and DPR T-62s, most analysts claimed all T-62s had been scrapped.

The fact that Putin announced just 300k to be called up aligns well with the difficulties in providing refresher training and equipping new troops during the “voluntary” contract recruitment campaign thus far. It should be entirely within their capability to bring those troops in as attrition replacements of existing units in a month or so. Any further mobilization beyond that is not impossible, but will likely take more time and effort.



This all sounds very impressive on paper, but during this entire war, the Russians have shown they can't really move any of their ground forces much beyond 70km from any rail lines they control.  They also have a deteriorating logistical problem exacerbated by the recent acquisition of precision artillery systems.

I would expect more of this.



Attachment Attached File

Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:17:52 PM EDT
[#13]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By fisterkev:

I find it interesting that Russia has apparently been unable to destroy even a single HIMARS / M270 as of yet. You'd think that would be a very, very high priority.
View Quote



Short answer is they can't. It outrages anything they have short of aircraft or cruise missile, and you'd have to find it first.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:18:01 PM EDT
[#14]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By fisterkev:

I find it interesting that Russia has apparently been unable to destroy even a single HIMARS / M270 as of yet. You'd think that would be a very, very high priority.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By fisterkev:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

I find it interesting that Russia has apparently been unable to destroy even a single HIMARS / M270 as of yet. You'd think that would be a very, very high priority.


It certainly is their highest priority, but for myself, I'm surprised that Russia lacks the ability to intercept these rounds.  We thought the Tor and other systems could.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:19:17 PM EDT
[#15]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Finslayer83:
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Attachment Attached File


Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:20:14 PM EDT
[#16]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Red_Blue:

Russian army doesn't have trained tank crews without tanks waiting for someone to issue them one. The specialized training mentioned as one of the factors in who gets called up exactly refers to such people as tank crews. There is no logic in claiming that these tanks that western intelligence claims exist do not exist because they don't drive themselves.

Besides, Russian army has already dipped into these stores many times during this war. The point is that there is no calculation possible where such stores are already empty. Not even if you assume some horrendous rate of rejection. 90% of them are not going to be scrap. Each major Russian yearly exercise includes raising up some vehicles from deep level depot storage for that particular exercise. And even if you assume some subterfuge like the depot bribing the inspecting general to know in advance which chassis numbers are going to be taken out for use this time, none of this "graft hole" is everything.

Another way to look at is that the Russians say they have 10k reserve tanks, but in fact they have 30k. And of those 66 % can be rusting under the sun or sold do plow fields in Yakutia or whatever, in the end they still have 10k tanks that kind of work (per Russian standards).
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Originally Posted By Red_Blue:
Originally Posted By RolandofGilead:
Doesn't change the fact that those 10k tanks are going to be scrap heaps either. If they weren't, they would have already fielded them.

Russian army doesn't have trained tank crews without tanks waiting for someone to issue them one. The specialized training mentioned as one of the factors in who gets called up exactly refers to such people as tank crews. There is no logic in claiming that these tanks that western intelligence claims exist do not exist because they don't drive themselves.

Besides, Russian army has already dipped into these stores many times during this war. The point is that there is no calculation possible where such stores are already empty. Not even if you assume some horrendous rate of rejection. 90% of them are not going to be scrap. Each major Russian yearly exercise includes raising up some vehicles from deep level depot storage for that particular exercise. And even if you assume some subterfuge like the depot bribing the inspecting general to know in advance which chassis numbers are going to be taken out for use this time, none of this "graft hole" is everything.

Another way to look at is that the Russians say they have 10k reserve tanks, but in fact they have 30k. And of those 66 % can be rusting under the sun or sold do plow fields in Yakutia or whatever, in the end they still have 10k tanks that kind of work (per Russian standards).

I'm not sure if you're deliberately twisting what I'm saying, or perhaps I'm not explaining myself well.

They have already sent T62s there. They have already sent tanks that literally had to be towed to the front, and others that can't shoot. I didn't say they don't exist, they almost certainly do exist. They're also almost certainly completely neglected and not combat ready.
I never said the stores were empty.

It's like you haven't been paying attention to what's been going on over the last 7 months. Nothing is going to get better for them.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:23:29 PM EDT
[#17]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Capta:


No it wouldn’t, it’s a backstop if Western will falters, in which case Russia would nuke Ukrainian cities anyway.  Ukraine needs the ability to make the cost for Russia extreme.  They are in range of Rostov-On-Don, the third most important city in Russia. They are in range of quite a few more mid-size cities, and with other means could probably reach Moscow.  Again, in the worst case scenario Moscow needs to understand the costs would be prohibitive.
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Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By stgdz:
Originally Posted By Jack67:
Originally Posted By Capta:

….
As a final insurance policy - and some may disagree with me - we should hand Ukraine 25 nuclear warheads mounted on ATACMS.  We allowed this mess and we need to ensure Ukraine survives it.


As shocking as it sounds, this has a strong logical appeal.  I’ve mentioned it before here, too, like you. We effectively took the Ukr nukes away from them in ‘94 by providing a security assurance.  It’s time to honor that.  So far we are - but it’s still escalating.  If it continues to do so, we can provide the ultimate guarantee either with our own and NATO’s nukes, or short-circuit that Russo-Nato black-mail by re-arming Ukraine.  It’s one thing for Putin to blackmail us, London, or Berlin. If he suddenly has to deal with a nuclear Ukraine, his problems multiply greatly and his options shrink massively.  It is a counter-intuitively stabilizing move, not a de-stabilizing one.

The media would have a cow at the concept of spreading nuclear proliferation.  But it’s not actually creating a new nuclear power but rather restoring one, and it greatly reduces the risk of nuclear war in this current dilemma by reducing the number of nuclear actors and potential targets.  It’s also morally defensible as it restores a now clearly necessary nuclear deterrent that the world rushed too quickly into scrapping.  It’s logical, it’s moral, and it might secure peace.  And clearly it’s not going to happen, sadly.

Giving the UA nukes would freeze the conflict and go into a stalemate.  What would they do with them.  Threaten the Russians to leave,. They have thousands of them and would flatten almost every city in Ukraine if UA used a nuke.


No it wouldn’t, it’s a backstop if Western will falters, in which case Russia would nuke Ukrainian cities anyway.  Ukraine needs the ability to make the cost for Russia extreme.  They are in range of Rostov-On-Don, the third most important city in Russia. They are in range of quite a few more mid-size cities, and with other means could probably reach Moscow.  Again, in the worst case scenario Moscow needs to understand the costs would be prohibitive.

At what point in this conflict have the russians.ever understood that the war is cost prohibitive.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:23:33 PM EDT
[#18]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By stgdz:

At what point do they run out of missiles we can supply though?
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By stgdz:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

At what point do they run out of missiles we can supply though?

We can make 1500 pods per year.  Ukraine has 38 effective pod equivalents.  Each and every pod could fire 39 times per day and not draw down existing US inventory.
Given operational needs, I doubt Ukraine can fire even a quarter of that, and look at the effects.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:24:43 PM EDT
[#19]
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:24:53 PM EDT
[#20]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By stgdz:

At what point in this conflict have the russians.ever understood that the war is cost prohibitive.
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Vlad literally does not give two shits.

Which is why so many (formerly) rich guys are falling down stairs.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:27:47 PM EDT
[#21]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By THOT_Vaccine:

Homie, the most recent armor reinforcements are sporting T-62s. Wearing boots from 1948 and shooting ammo from 1950.
Maybe you missed it. It's about 30 pages back.
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That's especially with LPR, those guys are ghetto af.

Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:29:34 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta] [#22]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By stgdz:

At what point in this conflict have the russians.ever understood that the war is cost prohibitive.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By stgdz:
Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By stgdz:
Originally Posted By Jack67:
Originally Posted By Capta:

….
As a final insurance policy - and some may disagree with me - we should hand Ukraine 25 nuclear warheads mounted on ATACMS.  We allowed this mess and we need to ensure Ukraine survives it.


As shocking as it sounds, this has a strong logical appeal.  I’ve mentioned it before here, too, like you. We effectively took the Ukr nukes away from them in ‘94 by providing a security assurance.  It’s time to honor that.  So far we are - but it’s still escalating.  If it continues to do so, we can provide the ultimate guarantee either with our own and NATO’s nukes, or short-circuit that Russo-Nato black-mail by re-arming Ukraine.  It’s one thing for Putin to blackmail us, London, or Berlin. If he suddenly has to deal with a nuclear Ukraine, his problems multiply greatly and his options shrink massively.  It is a counter-intuitively stabilizing move, not a de-stabilizing one.

The media would have a cow at the concept of spreading nuclear proliferation.  But it’s not actually creating a new nuclear power but rather restoring one, and it greatly reduces the risk of nuclear war in this current dilemma by reducing the number of nuclear actors and potential targets.  It’s also morally defensible as it restores a now clearly necessary nuclear deterrent that the world rushed too quickly into scrapping.  It’s logical, it’s moral, and it might secure peace.  And clearly it’s not going to happen, sadly.

Giving the UA nukes would freeze the conflict and go into a stalemate.  What would they do with them.  Threaten the Russians to leave,. They have thousands of them and would flatten almost every city in Ukraine if UA used a nuke.


No it wouldn’t, it’s a backstop if Western will falters, in which case Russia would nuke Ukrainian cities anyway.  Ukraine needs the ability to make the cost for Russia extreme.  They are in range of Rostov-On-Don, the third most important city in Russia. They are in range of quite a few more mid-size cities, and with other means could probably reach Moscow.  Again, in the worst case scenario Moscow needs to understand the costs would be prohibitive.

At what point in this conflict have the russians.ever understood that the war is cost prohibitive.


Russia is willing to bear the cost of a bunch of peasants from BFE getting killed.  They are probably not willing to bear the cost of Rostov-on-Don being wiped off the map.
Add to that the mineral and energy wealth in Ukraine, which they believed would allow them to further leverage their energy blackmail over Europe, the manpower and technical resources Ukraine possesses?  It was a simple cost-benefit analysis for them, even if it costs 500,000 non-Russian peasant lives.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:31:31 PM EDT
[#23]
Anyone else find it a bit amusing that on the same day Russia is basically threatening the west with the possible use of nuclear weapons, they also simultaneously decide to release U.S. and British citizens who were captured in eastern Ukraine and were basically on death row? It is almost like we are dealing with split personalities here or something with how incongruent these two actions appear.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:32:47 PM EDT
[#24]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
Anyone else find it a bit amusing that on the same day Russia is basically threatening the west with the possible use of nuclear weapons, they also simultaneously decide to release U.S. and British citizens who were captured in eastern Ukraine and were basically on death row? It is almost like we are dealing with split personalities here or something with how incongruent these two actions appear.
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Russia has been threatening the use of nukes over everything.  Weapons, if NATO causes them to stub a toe, etc.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:34:15 PM EDT
[#25]
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:38:36 PM EDT
[#26]


Watch southern Turkey on that map
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:39:08 PM EDT
[#27]
And to think. Folks like Jake Sullivan and Miley are navigating this shit show for us.

I'd put money on strategic nuclear exchange if anyone would be around afterward to collect from.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:40:14 PM EDT
[#28]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
View Quote

Why stop there, may as well put the newly formed lake NATO to good use and just leave the Barents sea fleet alone.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:42:07 PM EDT
[#29]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By burnka871:



Short answer is they can't. It outrages anything they have short of aircraft or cruise missile, and you'd have to find it first.
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Sort of like the SCUD hunt during GW1. Very hard to find.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:46:32 PM EDT
[#30]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Zhukov:
Zeihan's take on the mobilization fresh off the presses...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pt6sfPf1Z_Q
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He still thinks Russia can win this.  I wish he would elaborate more on why.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:46:45 PM EDT
[#31]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By M-1975:
https://i.postimg.cc/MG6Spm8b/image.png
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That’s fantastic!!! Can’t wait to hear their accounts
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:47:14 PM EDT
[#32]
Biden's UN speech.  The only good speech he has ever given.

President Biden: Ukraine war was 'chosen by one man'
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:47:32 PM EDT
[#33]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By atavistic:
And to think. Folks like Jake Sullivan and Miley are navigating this shit show for us.

I'd put money on strategic nuclear exchange if anyone would be around afterward to collect from.
View Quote


Last I looked, Anthony Blinken was SecState and Lloyd Austin was SecDef.  They seem to be doing a fine job and have my support, and I think that of most informed observers.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:53:51 PM EDT
[#34]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RolandofGilead:

I'm not sure if you're deliberately twisting what I'm saying, or perhaps I'm not explaining myself well.

They have already sent T62s there. They have already sent tanks that literally had to be towed to the front, and others that can't shoot. I didn't say they don't exist, they almost certainly do exist. They're also almost certainly completely neglected and not combat ready.
I never said the stores were empty.

It's like you haven't been paying attention to what's been going on over the last 7 months. Nothing is going to get better for them.
View Quote
Looking at how its worded, and the info he presented, its likely a compromised AR15.com account thats being used by the Ruskies.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:55:21 PM EDT
[#35]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By atavistic:
And to think. Folks like Jake Sullivan and Miley are navigating this shit show for us.

I'd put money on strategic nuclear exchange if anyone would be around afterward to collect from.
View Quote

Folks like Miley and Sullivan are always around.

There's is no "pure" governmental organization that will 100% share your ideology.
Never was. Never will be.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:56:28 PM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Red_Blue:
Those dismissing the “partial mobilization” as impossible and claim that the mass mobilization system collapsed with the SU have not kept up with recent actual academic research into Russian Armed Forces. The fact remains that the RF has 33 million military age males available for service (not disqualified) of which pool about 8 million had actually served in the military. According to western estimates, about 2 million of those are listed in the inactive reserve and less than 100 000 in the new (since 2021) active reserve system BARS.

Those less than 100k have received training monthly and are like USNG or USAR, former active duty who continue to serve as volunteer reserve. Of the remaining 1.9 or so million, the first to be mobilized is the grade with the youngest soldiers having the least time from active service, for rank and file (eq. “enlisted”) and NCOs that’s at most 35 year olds. So you are not going to see grandpas like in one of the volunteer units.

And the material situation remains to be seen, but any talk about Mosins and T55s is just ludicrous. Russian army didn’t adopt the AK-12 or any of the earlier Russian era modernized variants because they have millions of AK-74s and AKMs in stock. Even western analysts agree that Russia has over 10k tanks in storage and is only missing (reservist) crews and supplies for them. And that 10k of T-80, T-72 and T-64 is most likely an underestimate, because before Russia gave LPR and DPR T-62s, most analysts claimed all T-62s had been scrapped.

The fact that Putin announced just 300k to be called up aligns well with the difficulties in providing refresher training and equipping new troops during the “voluntary” contract recruitment campaign thus far. It should be entirely within their capability to bring those troops in as attrition replacements of existing units in a month or so. Any further mobilization beyond that is not impossible, but will likely take more time and effort.
View Quote



I typed a laundry list of pertinent questions earlier in this thread and your post, while appreciated, doesn't really address much of it.   Aside from the tanks.    And I strongly question the battle-readiness or overall quality of their "vast stocks of tanks."

But lets be generous and say they have 10,000 (lol) tanks in a ready state or nearly so, and they just lack manpower to crew them.  Fine.

How does that improve Russia's situation?  I'm not going to retype my entire laundry list of questions but the most pertinent question remains: what would those tanks do to redress the artillery imbalance?   How do those tanks destroy HIMARs and other Ukrainian artillery?
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:56:57 PM EDT
[#37]
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Originally Posted By THOT_Vaccine:


Watch southern Turkey on that map
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Why is that age restricted?

Link Posted: 9/21/2022 2:58:39 PM EDT
[#38]
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Originally Posted By Grendelsbane:


Why is that age restricted?

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Originally Posted By Grendelsbane:
Originally Posted By THOT_Vaccine:


Watch southern Turkey on that map


Why is that age restricted?


Some Russian bots reported it enough that the Twitter bots fired off an age restriction.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:02:58 PM EDT
[#39]
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Originally Posted By AROKIE:



This was the weapon used.
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Originally Posted By AROKIE:
Originally Posted By Francisco_dAnconia:
Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:
It does look very "spectacular" unless you are in the middle of it.
It looks like the numerous other videos of the Russians doing the same shit in other places.
The video is legit.
I bet it would be even more "spectacular" if you were the target.

I don't recall seeing footage of this type of weapon before.  My initial impression, especially with that background music, is that it looked beautiful, like Tinkerbell spreading pixie dust over the town.  Now that know what the weapon is and what it looks like it doesn't look as fake (or pretty) anymore.


Originally Posted By Jack67:
Follow the twitter link and scroll down. The geolocating evidence shows the whole village burned out.  Pics are there.
I see a couple of Google Earth screenshots, but the imagery is dated from 2020 and therefore doesn't show the village burned out.



This was the weapon used.

Who the fuck would use something like this on a small
village?  Not big enough to cause fear in the general population
but just big enough to show the perpetrators to be monsters.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:03:16 PM EDT
[#40]
Russian banks getting murdered in trading.

The only stock that isn't getting clobbered makes explosives...
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:08:50 PM EDT
[#41]
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:

"that's real retarded, sir"

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You just had to put the image of that beast back in my head didn't you?

Although they say Putin still maintains a minimum of 60% support, I think what matters most is if that is equal throughout all parties. Public, Military, Political, and Security.Even 99% support in security could and hopefully will be fatal. If a 200's family could purchase a new lata/lada then the guy tho ventilates Putins skull should be able to purchase the Lada/Lata factory.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:10:18 PM EDT
[#42]
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:

"that's real retarded, sir"

In the "opening stages", they assumed it would be a 3 day cake walk. At least those few who knew they were going to Ukraine. Yet now, after 100-150K casualties, counter offensives, HIMARS, and losing air superiority to the UA, now (NOW) they will have better morale?
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:
Originally Posted By Red_Blue:

That remains to be seen. The main problem during the opening stages appears to have been poor morale. That can be changed very quickly. It's likely that the contract soldiers have also fought much better when the refusenik sanction was changed from no pay to jail and then (alledgedly) to being shot for desertion.


The only place there is “WWII equipment” in Russia is museums.

"that's real retarded, sir"

In the "opening stages", they assumed it would be a 3 day cake walk. At least those few who knew they were going to Ukraine. Yet now, after 100-150K casualties, counter offensives, HIMARS, and losing air superiority to the UA, now (NOW) they will have better morale?


This.  They were wildly over-confident in the opening stages.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:11:13 PM EDT
[#43]



"The training of those who are subject to partial mobilization will take more than a month before being sent to the zone of the special military operation, Viktor Bondarev, head of the Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security, believes."

https://t.me/tass_agency/156551


Lavrov doing important work.

On September 21, on the sidelines of the 77th session of the UN General Assembly, Sergei Lavrov met with Bolivian Foreign Minister R. Maita Maita. The parties reaffirmed the course towards the comprehensive strengthening of multifaceted Russian-Bolivian ties.


Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:11:42 PM EDT
[#44]
Vladimir Putin calls up 300,000 extra troops and warns the West against 'nuclear blackmail'
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:13:41 PM EDT
[#45]


The quoted tweet didn't last long. Was several obviously dead and a couple maybe unconscious at the mobilization protest.
It will show back up. Looks like OMAN is just going to save the courts the trouble.
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:16:43 PM EDT
[#46]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

We can make 1500 pods per year.  Ukraine has 38 effective pod equivalents.  Each and every pod could fire 39 times per day and not draw down existing US inventory.
Given operational needs, I doubt Ukraine can fire even a quarter of that, and look at the effects.
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Uhh no?

38 launchers could fit 39 times a year not day...or for 39 days straight which they probably have
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:18:56 PM EDT
[#47]




Hard to keep track, but...that's a big one.

Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:24:11 PM EDT
[#48]
Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:24:19 PM EDT
[#49]
Russia finally sending the top tier units to the frontlines

Link Posted: 9/21/2022 3:24:38 PM EDT
[#50]
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