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Posted: 10/27/2021 8:27:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: The_Beer_Slayer]
This is now the active "shit News links, thanks to BerettaGuy: Originally Posted By BerettaGuy: LINKS TO UKRAINIAN NEWS SOURCES IN ENGLISH Kyiv Post Ukrainian News UKRInform EUROMAIDEN PRESS New Voice of Ukraine Kyiv Independent Ukraine World InterFax Ukraine UATV Ukrainian Journal Official Website of the President of Ukraine Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Save these links. I can't post all the headlines like I've done in the past - too much news and too often. Please @ me with additional stuff to be added here. I don't currently have time to properly curate this thread otherwise. New news link c/o berettaguy: Ukrainian Pravda https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ Stop fake, anti - disinformation site: https://www.stopfake.org/en/main/ |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:01:19 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: What makes you think they can do that quickly? What are they going to equip those fully mobilized with, and who/how will they train them? Untrained conscripts will not extend this war for 5 years. Russia doesn't have 5 years to make this happen. Russian industry and military is mired with so much corruption it makes the US look like boy scouts. 5 years under normal conditions would be a stretch, during war with sanctions? I don't think so. I didn’t say I think they can accomplish it. I’m saying that it looks like this is the path Russia is going to go down. Ukraine now holds a technological advantage and man power advantage. Russia can not over come this with conventional weapons. So if they fully mobilize, annex parts of Ukraine and then Russia can say Ukraine is invading the motherland. That opens a whole can of worms Russia can go down in their own minds. I’m just pointing out contrarian ideas. To many people keep saying Russia can’t mobilize. None of us know that answer and it doesn’t mean Russia won’t try. Personally I wouldn’t mind seeing Russia send a couple hundred thousand more men to their deaths. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:01:27 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sq40: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/49447/C18F14D5-B634-40B3-8061-0B3CA0973A09_jpe-2533112.JPG  They might actually go full retard. Provided they do actually mobilize and throw hoards of conscripts at Ukraine, we should flood Ukraine with ATACMS and anything else we've been holding back on. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:02:14 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: You think the Taliban is going to take that stuff to Ukraine to fight? Or just willingly give it up and ship it there or something? Why would they do that? I don't think they will give anything, but sell it? yep. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:02:40 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: They might actually go full retard. Provided they do actually mobilize and throw hoards of conscripts at Ukraine, we should flood Ukraine with ATACMS and anything else we've been holding back on. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Originally Posted By sq40: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/49447/C18F14D5-B634-40B3-8061-0B3CA0973A09_jpe-2533112.JPG They might actually go full retard. Provided they do actually mobilize and throw hoards of conscripts at Ukraine, we should flood Ukraine with ATACMS and anything else we've been holding back on. |
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SC, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:06:36 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By NEXT23: I truly believe someone else is going to enter into the war, who or how, I don't know. China North Korea Belarus Iran India Pakistan Little Rocket Man isn't going to do shit because he knows he's a small fish who will be sacrificed when necessary. His current Gig is as good as its ever going to get. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:07:43 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TxRabbitBane: Why would China do that? It’s not like they’re friends…. If China helps Russia prolong the war it weakens the west and Russia. That’s a win win for China. What if China has made the decision to start its conquest of Taiwan or the Philippines. Having nato nations tied up fighting Russia surely helps them. There could be many possible reasons. Hell they could help Russia field 200k men and send them to their deaths in Ukraine. This would open Eastern Russia of a even easier take over. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:07:51 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cypher15: If Belarus was going to they would have by now. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cypher15: Originally Posted By NEXT23: I truly believe someone else is going to enter into the war, who or how, I don't know. China North Korea Belarus Iran India Pakistan I guess it's possible, but I agree with you. High risk, little reward. Unlikely. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:08:30 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: I didn't say I think they can accomplish it. I'm saying that it looks like this is the path Russia is going to go down. Ukraine now holds a technological advantage and man power advantage. Russia can not over come this with conventional weapons. So if they fully mobilize, annex parts of Ukraine and then Russia can say Ukraine is invading the motherland. That opens a whole can of worms Russia can go down in their own minds. I'm just pointing out contrarian ideas. To many people keep saying Russia can't mobilize. None of us know that answer and it doesn't mean Russia won't try. Personally I wouldn't mind seeing Russia send a couple hundred thousand more men to their deaths. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: What makes you think they can do that quickly? What are they going to equip those fully mobilized with, and who/how will they train them? Untrained conscripts will not extend this war for 5 years. Russia doesn't have 5 years to make this happen. Russian industry and military is mired with so much corruption it makes the US look like boy scouts. 5 years under normal conditions would be a stretch, during war with sanctions? I don't think so. I didn't say I think they can accomplish it. I'm saying that it looks like this is the path Russia is going to go down. Ukraine now holds a technological advantage and man power advantage. Russia can not over come this with conventional weapons. So if they fully mobilize, annex parts of Ukraine and then Russia can say Ukraine is invading the motherland. That opens a whole can of worms Russia can go down in their own minds. I'm just pointing out contrarian ideas. To many people keep saying Russia can't mobilize. None of us know that answer and it doesn't mean Russia won't try. Personally I wouldn't mind seeing Russia send a couple hundred thousand more men to their deaths. Gotcha. Yeah I guess they may try it. |
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ZWE
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:08:38 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sq40: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/49447/C18F14D5-B634-40B3-8061-0B3CA0973A09_jpe-2533112.JPG |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:09:13 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By NEXT23: I don't think they will give anything, but sell it? yep. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By NEXT23: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: You think the Taliban is going to take that stuff to Ukraine to fight? Or just willingly give it up and ship it there or something? Why would they do that? I don't think they will give anything, but sell it? yep. What would they sell that Russians can actually use and have ammo for? |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:09:55 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By NEXT23: I don't think they will give anything, but sell it? yep. What do you think they possess that would make an impact on this war? |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:13:55 PM EDT
[#12]
Full mobilization or no mobilization Ukraine is going to continue to push Russians shit in and I look forward to watching it.
I’d like to know if Ukraine is going to make a big push to the south to take Crimea soon? |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:15:26 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Saltwater-Hillbilly]
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By NEXT23: YOu know all that stuff we left over in Afghanistan and Iraq.......I think its about to enter the chat. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By NEXT23: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: The next question is, "How long can the Russians sustain this level of Mobilization"? I guarantee that neither India nor China is going to provide war materials to Russia on the basis that the US and British Empire underwrote the Soviet war effort against the Axis powers, so these will be no Indian/Chinese equivalent to WWII "Lend Lease" Also, the current population of Russia is smaller, older, and in poorer overall health than in Soviet days. What is the productivity of over-50 rookie workers on production lines, in agriculture, Transportation, distribution, and mining? How much of the Russian oil industry can be maintained after losing foreign expertise if you draft a large number of both the roughnecks AND the remaining skilled labor and you replace them with pensioners and babushkas? Or the railroad and road systems (which, in Russia, are both massive undertakings)? How many of the somewhat tech-savvy bright young things you DO manage draft from Moscow/St Pete are actually going to be available for the front, as there is an equally critical need for Russia to replace all of the losses of technical people in the Air Forces/Air Defense Forces/Strategic Forces/Navy that have been expended to date backfilling the Army in Ukraine? Who mans/operates all the ports/airports/terminals when the most productive people get drafted? How long until all this additional stress craters whatever is left the the Russian healthcare system, as everything from heart attacks to industrial accidents to transportation accidents will increase; not to mention the care for seriously injured and disabled military casualties that will be eventually dumped into the Civilian health care establishment? Best case for Russia, there is a "Sweet Spot" from 6-18 months where the benefits of mass-mobilization outweigh the drawbacks. Worst Case, whatever is left of the Russian economy collapses within the next 90 days with all the key industries and logistics nodes beginning an unrecoverable "death spiral" that, like the post-Civil War American South, will take decades to recover from. Remember that the South's Economy collapsed long before their Army, as did the German and Austro-Hungarian economies in WWI. YOu know all that stuff we left over in Afghanistan and Iraq.......I think its about to enter the chat. Russia would be stupid to do this, as the stuff we left in AFG is mostly small arms (in NATO calibers), Artillery (Towed, with a significant % of it in NATO calibers) Helicopters, Light Attack and utility aircraft in numbers that =/= current Russian losses, NODS and commo equipment, as well as vehicles (which the could actually use, providing they found a way to regenerate/maintain it, since I'm guessing it's in questionable mechanical shape by now, and buildings/facilites, which might be hard to move quickly. Given the transportation issues with moving all the stuff from Central Asia, the stuff would probably either make it to Ukraine just in time to be Ukrainian war booty or serve as the basis for reequipping whatever is left of the Russian Army after the war. In other words, Russia buying all the stuff and taking out of circulation across the Third World would be a blessing for the West. I sincerely hope Russia sticks to form and is stupid enough to do this, further straining their logistics system for no real benefit. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:16:00 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdGQ9rrWQAAFIjT?format=jpg&name=4096x4096 "Mandatory volunteer battalions" Yay, more press-ganging of conquered civilians. Fucking savages. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:16:11 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By NEXT23: I truly believe someone else is going to enter into the war, who or how, I don't know. China North Korea Belarus Iran India Pakistan China - nothing to gain North Korea - nothing to gain, plus they’ll follow China, plus nothing to offer but malnourished bodies (which Russia has plenty of already) Belarus- nothing to offer but a border with UKR which they already let Russia use… plus they have a lot of collateral within striking range of UKR, so lots to lose Iran - what do they have to offer? What’s Russia going to give them, more equipment that they’re proven sucks? India- you think they would send anything to help Russia while China breathes down their necks? Pakistan - worst allies ever (ok, that’s France)… Nothing to gain. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:16:57 PM EDT
[Last Edit: TxRabbitBane]
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: If China helps Russia prolong the war it weakens the west and Russia. That’s a win win for China. What if China has made the decision to start its conquest of Taiwan or the Philippines. Having nato nations tied up fighting Russia surely helps them. There could be many possible reasons. Hell they could help Russia field 200k men and send them to their deaths in Ukraine. This would open Eastern Russia of a even easier take over. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: Originally Posted By TxRabbitBane: Why would China do that? It’s not like they’re friends…. If China helps Russia prolong the war it weakens the west and Russia. That’s a win win for China. What if China has made the decision to start its conquest of Taiwan or the Philippines. Having nato nations tied up fighting Russia surely helps them. There could be many possible reasons. Hell they could help Russia field 200k men and send them to their deaths in Ukraine. This would open Eastern Russia of a even easier take over. Except that it doesn’t weaken the west. Warm bodies don’t help- Russia has plenty of them. Equipment that doesn’t suck? China doesn’t even know if any of their homegrown stuff works, plus they have no experienced officers or NCOs. Every ounce of materiel they send to UKR is resources they don’t have to invade Taiwan. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:18:07 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mal_means_bad: Russia is incapable of meaningful mobilization beyond what they're already doing, so the referendum has nothing to do with justifying mobilization. Annexation would appear to add teeth to their nuclear threats, but they have returned to that well many times, proving the threats to be bluffs, and the US/NATO coalition has been consistently willing to call those bluffs. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mal_means_bad: Originally Posted By kncook: Yep. Only three ways this can end. The western world (regular folks) don't really think about Ukraine. They will be. It will either end these ways with ZERO other options s. 1) Russia loses all their previously captured UKR territory. Putin and inner-circle fall with internal strife tipping him over. Best case scenario is he "resigns" and Russ suffers for a while through punitive sanctions and a blow to their pride. Worst case is a Russian civil war with Putin refusing to step down ,or he "falls out of a window" and the next strong-man steps up. Rinse, repeat, 2) The West backs down under energy/economic pressure and loses much world credibility. Russia/Iran/China sphere of influence strengthens. Russia is able to claim a pseudo "victory" by retaining Crimea and LDR/DNR. Still won't be able to take the rest of Ukraine in short/medium term. 3) Russia uses "referendum" to claim full mobilization/strategic nuclear use. If limited to Ukraine front lines then there will be no NATO response but conventional/economic pressure will escalate and there is no telling what that leads to. Russia is incapable of meaningful mobilization beyond what they're already doing, so the referendum has nothing to do with justifying mobilization. Annexation would appear to add teeth to their nuclear threats, but they have returned to that well many times, proving the threats to be bluffs, and the US/NATO coalition has been consistently willing to call those bluffs. The most obvious problem with the referendum bluff is that (from the wests perspective) if they let it happen once it will never stop. “Oh, didn't you hear? We had a secret referendum among the russian-speakers in east germany last week because they’re afraid of their nazi government. They voted for unification with Russia effective immediately. Now get out or we kill everyone.” It’s so farcical that it doesn't even bear discussion. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:18:17 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: Full mobilization or no mobilization Ukraine is going to continue to push Russians shit in and I look forward to watching it. I’d like to know if Ukraine is going to make a big push to the south to take Crimea soon? Crimea - I don’t see how it makes any sense to put regular boots on the ground in Crimea until they take and consolidate control of the rest of the Russian occupied territories. Precision strikes, special ops, and partisan activities will continue. |
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WY, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:27:01 PM EDT
[#19]
Sky news saying this Putin address is a good bit late. Was supposed to happen earlier...
https://nitter.net/WarMonitor3/status/1572287929904660481#m |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:27:24 PM EDT
[#20]
The mobilization only makes sense only in the context of Kherson and the separatists "people's republics" fronts collapsing. (Fingers crossed)
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CA, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:28:18 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By gentlemanfarmer: I can assure you NABU is increasingly getting the power to do something about serious corruption. They are a FBI level org with their own arresting force now. They have thousands of cases, they have been politically insulated that's to the USA. That was a problem. Now they are getting guys. Trust me https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/419667/1106C441-B2D2-4B3D-A900-BC3A0CB7EB14_jpe-2532738.JPG Like the FBI that covers up Biden's corruption rather than investigate it? Or the Clinton's for that matter who are the most corrupt politicians in my lifetime. |
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NM, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:28:48 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mal_means_bad: Russia is incapable of meaningful mobilization beyond what they're already doing, so the referendum has nothing to do with justifying mobilization. Annexation would appear to add teeth to their nuclear threats, but they have returned to that well many times, proving the threats to be bluffs, and the US/NATO coalition has been consistently willing to call those bluffs. Another low-likelihood option is using a referendum to displace blame from Russia and make the LPR/DPR sacrificial lambs. |
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ZWE
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:30:15 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GunGuyMP: Sky news saying this Putin address is a good bit late. Was supposed to happen earlier... https://nitter.net/WarMonitor3/status/1572287929904660481#m |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:30:17 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By trapsh00ter99:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pZDCfBVbScJust background talk now, but ready for if FVP makes his address. so it's today and soon then. watching. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:37:33 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: I think Russia will fully mobilize and turn its whole economy onto a war footing. I know most people here don’t think it’s possible for Putin to do this. But that doesn’t mean it’s not possible. Russia has lots vast amounts skilled man power and equipment. But that’s never stopped the Russians before. I believe Russia will get the raw materials it needs from China and maybe India. Most of the world never thought Russia would actually attack Ukraine but they did. So I think it’s possible Putin continues to survives and goes full retard with a full mobilization. People keep saying China wont help Russia because they are afraid of sanctions. We already sanction them to a point. But we can’t afford to fully sanction them to a point it makes them not help Russia. China has been stock piling food and commodities. They themselves are getting ready for a war. There is much going on that we don’t see and it’s very possibly Russia fully mobilizes and uses nukes in Ukraine. How does mobilizing their conscripts redress their lost artillery advantage? Both in pieces and ammo? How does mobilizing their conscripts replace their depleted long range precision missiles? How does mobilizing their conscripts replaces their losses in top tier tanks and IFVs? How does mobilizing their conscripts counter Ukraine's ability to strike their logistics and muster points with HIMARs? You know when Russia mobilizing their conscripts would have helped? At the start of their Short-bus military operation. When they had a shitload of IFVs and tanks headed to Kyiv with little or no light infantry in support. They are certainly suffering an acute manpower shortage now, sure. But feeding that shortage won't win the war for them at this point. It'll just make the whole country feel the pain. You're wrong about China too, imo. You greatly underestimate the US economy. The US can absolutely afford to fully sanction China. It would hurt and we'd all take a big bite out of a shit sandwich in more expensive goods. But we wouldn't go hungry. Our economy is still on much deeper moorings than China's and, at the end of the day, we are STILL a manufacturing juggernaut with unfettered access to raw materials. We can afford to re-home alot of industry that we previously off-shored. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:40:08 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By atavistic: Little Rocket Man isn't going to do shit because he knows he's a small fish who will be sacrificed when necessary. His current Gig is as good as its ever going to get. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By atavistic: Originally Posted By NEXT23: I truly believe someone else is going to enter into the war, who or how, I don't know. China North Korea Belarus Iran India Pakistan Little Rocket Man isn't going to do shit because he knows he's a small fish who will be sacrificed when necessary. His current Gig is as good as its ever going to get. They are short food again in big way. Could be a way to get a few 100k deaded. Less mouths to feed. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:40:27 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Grendelsbane: Crimea - I don't see how it makes any sense to put regular boots on the ground in Crimea until they take and consolidate control of the rest of the Russian occupied territories. Precision strikes, special ops, and partisan activities will continue. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Grendelsbane: Originally Posted By GoldenMead: Full mobilization or no mobilization Ukraine is going to continue to push Russians shit in and I look forward to watching it. I'd like to know if Ukraine is going to make a big push to the south to take Crimea soon? Crimea - I don't see how it makes any sense to put regular boots on the ground in Crimea until they take and consolidate control of the rest of the Russian occupied territories. Precision strikes, special ops, and partisan activities will continue. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:41:22 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GunGuyMP: Sky news saying this Putin address is a good bit late. Was supposed to happen earlier... https://nitter.net/WarMonitor3/status/1572287929904660481#m |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:42:27 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Dracster]
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: IAI offers a top attack cannon launched 105mm round that should be effective against all armor. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: Originally Posted By Special-K: Originally Posted By ludder093: Originally Posted By m35ben: T55s have entered the chat. These aren't awful but there is better stuff being used by both sides. https://english.sta.si/3083185/slovenia-and-germany-agree-on-military-vehicle-exchange-with-ukraine No, not really. The 105mm gun will struggle to get a Kill even at closer ranges in the front, and I would not expect it's armor to do very well in holding up to a hit from anything significant. But the vast majority of vehicles in war are not tanks. The 105mm rifle will still savage anything short of a modern tank, and it has a large number of ammunition types available for it that will make it very useful in direct fire support for infantry. Like the Leopard 1, I can see them as being very useful if properly employed - assuming they can keep them running. IAI offers a top attack cannon launched 105mm round that should be effective against all armor. LAHAT That would require Israel to actually allow their arms to be sold to Ukraine. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:44:01 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cypher15: Leaders are never on time Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cypher15: Originally Posted By GunGuyMP: Sky news saying this Putin address is a good bit late. Was supposed to happen earlier... https://nitter.net/WarMonitor3/status/1572287929904660481#m Maybe he fell out of a window? |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:44:04 PM EDT
[#31]
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:44:19 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 1Andy2: How does mobilizing their conscripts redress their lost artillery advantage? Both in pieces and ammo? How does mobilizing their conscripts replace their depleted long range precision missiles? How does mobilizing their conscripts replaces their losses in top tier tanks and IFVs? How does mobilizing their conscripts counter Ukraine's ability to strike their logistics and muster points with HIMARs? You know when Russia mobilizing their conscripts would have helped? At the start of their Short-bus military operation. When they had a shitload of IFVs and tanks headed to Kyiv with little or no light infantry in support. They are certainly suffering an acute manpower shortage now, sure. But feeding that shortage won't win the war for them at this point. It'll just make the whole country feel the pain. You're wrong about China too, imo. You greatly underestimate the US economy. The US can absolutely afford to fully sanction China. It would hurt and we'd all take a big bite out of a shit sandwich in more expensive goods. But we wouldn't go hungry. Our economy is still on much deeper moorings than China's and, at the end of the day, we are STILL a manufacturing juggernaut with unfettered access to raw materials. We can afford to re-home alot of industry that we previously off-shored. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 1Andy2: Originally Posted By GoldenMead: I think Russia will fully mobilize and turn its whole economy onto a war footing. I know most people here don’t think it’s possible for Putin to do this. But that doesn’t mean it’s not possible. Russia has lots vast amounts skilled man power and equipment. But that’s never stopped the Russians before. I believe Russia will get the raw materials it needs from China and maybe India. Most of the world never thought Russia would actually attack Ukraine but they did. So I think it’s possible Putin continues to survives and goes full retard with a full mobilization. People keep saying China wont help Russia because they are afraid of sanctions. We already sanction them to a point. But we can’t afford to fully sanction them to a point it makes them not help Russia. China has been stock piling food and commodities. They themselves are getting ready for a war. There is much going on that we don’t see and it’s very possibly Russia fully mobilizes and uses nukes in Ukraine. How does mobilizing their conscripts redress their lost artillery advantage? Both in pieces and ammo? How does mobilizing their conscripts replace their depleted long range precision missiles? How does mobilizing their conscripts replaces their losses in top tier tanks and IFVs? How does mobilizing their conscripts counter Ukraine's ability to strike their logistics and muster points with HIMARs? You know when Russia mobilizing their conscripts would have helped? At the start of their Short-bus military operation. When they had a shitload of IFVs and tanks headed to Kyiv with little or no light infantry in support. They are certainly suffering an acute manpower shortage now, sure. But feeding that shortage won't win the war for them at this point. It'll just make the whole country feel the pain. You're wrong about China too, imo. You greatly underestimate the US economy. The US can absolutely afford to fully sanction China. It would hurt and we'd all take a big bite out of a shit sandwich in more expensive goods. But we wouldn't go hungry. Our economy is still on much deeper moorings than China's and, at the end of the day, we are STILL a manufacturing juggernaut with unfettered access to raw materials. We can afford to re-home alot of industry that we previously off-shored. I agree on all points. The viewpoint of total Russian mobilization as some sort of game changer move only makes sense if we were fighting on a 1800's battlefield. The ability of mass infantry to swing a battle alone was pretty much done by the end of WWI. In 2020, you don't need so many conscripts as much as you need people to transport, operate and maintain the weapon systems that are the key to winning. Infantry absolutely has a role, but you need trained infantry, not some kid with a Mosin and a week of training. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:44:35 PM EDT
[#33]
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:49:59 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By _disconnector_: I'll bet we've known exactly what Putin is going to say for days - and the weapons are already packed and in transit. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By _disconnector_: Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Originally Posted By sq40: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/49447/C18F14D5-B634-40B3-8061-0B3CA0973A09_jpe-2533112.JPG They might actually go full retard. Provided they do actually mobilize and throw hoards of conscripts at Ukraine, we should flood Ukraine with ATACMS and anything else we've been holding back on. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:50:42 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: I didn’t say I think they can accomplish it. I’m saying that it looks like this is the path Russia is going to go down. Ukraine now holds a technological advantage and man power advantage. Russia can not over come this with conventional weapons. So if they fully mobilize, annex parts of Ukraine and then Russia can say Ukraine is invading the motherland. That opens a whole can of worms Russia can go down in their own minds. I’m just pointing out contrarian ideas. To many people keep saying Russia can’t mobilize. None of us know that answer and it doesn’t mean Russia won’t try. Personally I wouldn’t mind seeing Russia send a couple hundred thousand more men to their deaths. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: What makes you think they can do that quickly? What are they going to equip those fully mobilized with, and who/how will they train them? Untrained conscripts will not extend this war for 5 years. Russia doesn't have 5 years to make this happen. Russian industry and military is mired with so much corruption it makes the US look like boy scouts. 5 years under normal conditions would be a stretch, during war with sanctions? I don't think so. I didn’t say I think they can accomplish it. I’m saying that it looks like this is the path Russia is going to go down. Ukraine now holds a technological advantage and man power advantage. Russia can not over come this with conventional weapons. So if they fully mobilize, annex parts of Ukraine and then Russia can say Ukraine is invading the motherland. That opens a whole can of worms Russia can go down in their own minds. I’m just pointing out contrarian ideas. To many people keep saying Russia can’t mobilize. None of us know that answer and it doesn’t mean Russia won’t try. Personally I wouldn’t mind seeing Russia send a couple hundred thousand more men to their deaths. I have argued and continue to argue that Russia can’t actually execute mobilization, but I agree that it can try. If they do, it will be a disaster of WWI proportions. The last chance of Russian Army and people to save the Russian nation is fading fast. Anyone in Russia who can, should leave now with their family and anything they can carry in two suitcases. Every American should prepare for eventualities. Whatever happens the world will not look the same in 5 years. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:50:52 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Erno86]
[#36]
"Alligator" New Powerful 25kg Sniper Rifle (14.5mm round) Terrorizes Russian Army | Military Mind | TVP World @7:00  "Alligator" - new powerful 25kg sniper rifle terrorizes Russian army | Military Mind | TVP World |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:54:08 PM EDT
[#37]
Number of searches in Google "How to leave Russia? |
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OH, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:54:21 PM EDT
[#38]
Too young to see the collapse of the USSR
Too young to remember the breakup of Yugoslavia and the wars Just the right age to watch the sh*tshow that Russia is going to be for the next few decades Now we all get to see a massive, hundred-million-man trainwreck in real time. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:54:33 PM EDT
[#39]
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ME, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:57:13 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GreyHat: Another low-likelihood option is using a referendum to displace blame from Russia and make the LPR/DPR sacrificial lambs. It would be a interesting disengagement method to fake a referendum they lose, and use it to back down. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:59:46 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Orion_Shall_Rise: It would be a interesting disengagement method to fake a referendum they lose, and use it to back down. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Orion_Shall_Rise: Originally Posted By GreyHat: Another low-likelihood option is using a referendum to displace blame from Russia and make the LPR/DPR sacrificial lambs. It would be a interesting disengagement method to fake a referendum they lose, and use it to back down.  Attached File |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 3:03:26 PM EDT
[#42]
"Turkey President Erdogan On Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine And The Future Of NATO"  Turkey President Erdogan on Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the future of NATO |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 3:08:29 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mal_means_bad: Russian foreign trade after four months of war in Ukraine (through June) - Bank of Finland, 9/9/22 Russian imports have cratered and that's seriously harming domestic manufacturing in specific critical sectors. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/172926/Finland_report_jpg-2532823.JPG Most important part IMO:Russia's automotive industry has been particularly hard hit. Automotive industry output was down by nearly 60 % [and auto imports have been very skimpy] (y/y) in July, with passenger car production plunging by over 80 %.... Output of many other products in machinery & equipment category have also fallen notably. For example, production of washing machines in July was down by 55 % (y/y), elevators by 45 % and railway wagons [production has fallen] by 25 %[/color]. Companies producing modern railway wagons have had to cut production, while crane manufacturers have had to shift to producing simplified models... Red alert! This is what's going to fuck them in the medium term. The collapse in their ability to replace trucks is disaster enough, but the Russian economy relies on rail more than most countries on account of the distances, climate, and difficulty building roads. Russian rail cars are being severely stressed running ammunition and tanks hither and yon, and the effort to obtain North Korean ammo and replace European trade with Indian and Chinese is sending Russian railcars on epic transcontinental journeys instead of easy hops on the relatively short European railroads to move the same volume as before. Doubling the distance shipped is the same as halving the carrying capacity of your equipment, and every product traded with China instead of Europe is traveling something like 5 to 10 times as far. Cassette bearing manufacturers pulled out of Russia several months ago and we can expect that to limit new production and a rapidly growing number of existing cars getting sidelined for lack of replacements, not to mention losses to more accidents and enemy action. Serious import sanctions leakage is being routed through Turkey and Poland is a major source, evidently blind to a suspicious quintupling of demand for some important products: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/172926/Finland_report_parallel_imports_through_-2532806.JPG The overall value of exports greatly increased through June, largely thanks to the leap in energy prices and India. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/172926/Finland_report_exports_jpg-2532829.JPG However, global energy prices peaked in June and have since tumbled due to the recession, and recent reports are that Indian energy imports have fallen by at least 25% after Russia tried to phase out the deeeeep discount they were being given. Modi made a stir lecturing Putin on the value of peace at the summit the other day, so exports have likely dropped substantially from the June peak. On the export side, our findings suggest that Russian export revenue continued to grow throughout June. Exports to the EU have declined to a limited extent in volume terms, as most of the import restrictions were not in force yet in June. Moreover, India and China have substantially increased their purchases of Russian commodities. This more than offset the decline in exports of key commodities such as crude oil and coal to EU countries. With continuous export demand, output in these industries has remained quite robust. The effect of trade restrictions and lack of alternative markets, however, is already visible in Russia's wood and metals industries. The performances of other key export industries are expected to weaken gradually as EU import bans enter into force in December 2022 and February 2023. Logistical problems and potentially plateauing demand after strong surges will further limit Russia's opportunities for finding alternative markets in Asia. Overall, our analysis implies that the war and sanctions will take an increasing toll on the Russian economy in the months ahead. The latest forecasts foresee a total decline of Russian GDP of roughly 10 % in 2022 and 2023. Moreover, Russia's long-term growth potential already a modest 1.5 % per year before the invasion has been seriously eroded. Thank you for sharing. Some posters expressed doubts that the sanctions were going to have an effect, and the simple fact is that not much was going to happen overnight. In a few more months when trucks and rail cars begin to wear out, we are going to see some really dramatic effects. As for the political stuff, it's THE concern that lurks in the back of all of our minds from time to time (what the hell happened among our so-called "ruling elite" since the mid 2000s until 2016 wrt Ukraine??). Some posts were better than others but it hasn't been overwhelming. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 3:08:30 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: What makes you think they can do that quickly? What are they going to equip those fully mobilized with, and who/how will they train them? Untrained conscripts will not extend this war for 5 years. Russia doesn't have 5 years to make this happen. Russian industry and military is mired with so much corruption it makes the US look like boy scouts. 5 years under normal conditions would be a stretch, during war with sanctions? I don't think so. Russia absolutely, positively is willing to send men into battle with the clothes on their back and a rifle. All they have to do is move people to the front. It is how they wage war. It sounds preposterous, it's not. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 3:08:51 PM EDT
[#45]
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Posted: 9/20/2022 3:10:36 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Russia absolutely, positively is willing to send men into battle with the clothes on their back and a rifle. All they have to do is move people to the front. It is how they wage war. It sounds preposterous, it's not. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: What makes you think they can do that quickly? What are they going to equip those fully mobilized with, and who/how will they train them? Untrained conscripts will not extend this war for 5 years. Russia doesn't have 5 years to make this happen. Russian industry and military is mired with so much corruption it makes the US look like boy scouts. 5 years under normal conditions would be a stretch, during war with sanctions? I don't think so. Russia absolutely, positively is willing to send men into battle with the clothes on their back and a rifle. All they have to do is move people to the front. It is how they wage war. It sounds preposterous, it's not. I'm not arguing that they're not willing to, I'm arguing it won't make a difference. I'm also suggesting that overall this strategy may actually work against Putin rather than help the war effort. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 3:10:42 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975:
Mmmm Putin being indecisive in a public way... Pants shitting going on at high levels in Russia. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 3:11:48 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: They might actually go full retard. Provided they do actually mobilize and throw hoards of conscripts at Ukraine, we should flood Ukraine with ATACMS and anything else we've been holding back on. I believe that's 2 hours from now. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 3:15:49 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975:
Well that's interesting. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 3:16:25 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: I'm not arguing that they're not willing to, I'm arguing it won't make a difference. I'm also suggesting that overall this strategy may actually work against Putin rather than help the war effort. I expect there are lots of russian men who don't think taking Ukraine is worth a bunch of them dying for. This was supposed to be suppressing a rebellion, not reenacting ww2. I already know russians are getting pissed about what the govt/military is saying and doing. |
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