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Posted: 10/27/2021 8:27:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: The_Beer_Slayer]
This is now the active "shit News links, thanks to BerettaGuy: Originally Posted By BerettaGuy: LINKS TO UKRAINIAN NEWS SOURCES IN ENGLISH Kyiv Post Ukrainian News UKRInform EUROMAIDEN PRESS New Voice of Ukraine Kyiv Independent Ukraine World InterFax Ukraine UATV Ukrainian Journal Official Website of the President of Ukraine Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Save these links. I can't post all the headlines like I've done in the past - too much news and too often. Please @ me with additional stuff to be added here. I don't currently have time to properly curate this thread otherwise. New news link c/o berettaguy: Ukrainian Pravda https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ Stop fake, anti - disinformation site: https://www.stopfake.org/en/main/ |
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ON, CAN
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Posted: 9/20/2022 12:37:38 PM EDT
[#1]
Ghost page
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NY, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 12:38:45 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DonS: Really? You think it's reasonable to claim the Orange Revolution was instigated by a "nefarious" west? They were overthrowing a Putin puppet. It clearly had popular Ukrainian support, just as their current war against Russia does. And you think NATO expansion is reasonably seen as provocation? Why were Poland and Estonia happy to join NATO? Russia's issue with NATO expansion is that it complicates gobbling up countries in the future. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DonS: Originally Posted By Zhukov: This post is pretty reasonable and I don't really find anything at fault here, except. . . Really? You think it's reasonable to claim the Orange Revolution was instigated by a "nefarious" west? They were overthrowing a Putin puppet. It clearly had popular Ukrainian support, just as their current war against Russia does. And you think NATO expansion is reasonably seen as provocation? Why were Poland and Estonia happy to join NATO? Russia's issue with NATO expansion is that it complicates gobbling up countries in the future. I don't believe the west had NOTHING to do with the Orange Revolution... doesn't make it a bad thing... power to the people and all... I can understand that when your "enemy" is gobbling up allies that you wanted to get yourself, that would cause friction. And i can understand that western influence growing closer to Russian borders makes them nervous. You'd be nervous too if the army we are seeing now was your defense to the inevitable invasion. We see now that Poland could likely have invaded and taken over Russia... so they were right to be nervous. 
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USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 12:39:03 PM EDT
[#3]
Based on extensive research assembled by a task force of some of the most brilliant military minds the world has to offer, the Comoro Islands have a population of 1,000,000 and a military budget of $0. So, basically, the Russians signed a monumental and strategic agreement with a country similar in size and scope to Tulsa. But if I had to put my money on it, I'd take Tulsa in a rout over the Comoro Islands.
Anyone know whether or not the Russians have dispersed riot police around the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg? Might be a little hint as to what's about to happen. |
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MI, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 12:45:23 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mal_means_bad: Last month the Ukrainians showed off papers they found on a guy who went 5 days between being snatched off the street by a press gang to KIA. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mal_means_bad: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: They might roll out conscription here's why IMO it won't make any difference: -How long will it take to actually get those new boots on the ground? They have to notify them, get them to show up, then ship them over. Probably train for a week or two...maybe...or maybe not. (snip) That brand new "Russian 3rd Army" has already melted away. Lasted what, less than a month? I know we quip about Russia's willingness to sustain causalities being a big part of their strategy, but if they actually mobilize we won't have seen anything yet. Gonna look like Enemy At The Gates. |
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CHN
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Posted: 9/20/2022 12:46:03 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 1969iggy: I don't believe the west had NOTHING to do with the Orange Revolution... doesn't make it a bad thing... power to the people and all... I can understand that when your "enemy" is gobbling up allies that you wanted to get yourself, that would cause friction. And i can understand that western influence growing closer to Russian borders makes them nervous. You'd be nervous too if the army we are seeing now was your defense to the inevitable invasion. We see now that Poland could likely have invaded and taken over Russia... so they were right to be nervous. It isn't that the West had nothing to do with it. It's that it had popular support and they were overthrowing a Russian puppet. The NATO expansion is only a threat to Russia gobbling up nations. NATO isn't a threat, it's protection from Russia. Exactly why Ukraine wanted to join. Sweden has avoided joining in the past since they didn't want to upset Russia, and already got most benefits of NATO anyway. Finland had that special history with the Winter War and the Continuation War, being a German ally, etc. so they had their own delicate calculations. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 12:46:51 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Billy_Ringo: Based on extensive research assembled by a task force of some of the most brilliant military minds the world has to offer, the Comoro Islands have a population of 1,000,000 and a military budget of $0. So, basically, the Russians signed a monumental and strategic agreement with a country similar in size and scope to Tulsa. But if I had to put my money on it, I'd take Tulsa in a rout over the Comoro Islands. Anyone know whether or not the Russians have dispersed riot police around the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg? Might be a little hint as to what's about to happen. |
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LA, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 12:47:02 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Billy_Ringo: Based on extensive research assembled by a task force of some of the most brilliant military minds the world has to offer, the Comoro Islands have a population of 1,000,000 and a military budget of $0. So, basically, the Russians signed a monumental and strategic agreement with a country similar in size and scope to Tulsa. But if I had to put my money on it, I'd take Tulsa in a rout over the Comoro Islands. Anyone know whether or not the Russians have dispersed riot police around the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg? Might be a little hint as to what's about to happen. I wonder if the callup will even affect the cities or will just focus on rural areas and the backwater territories. That could lead to problems for them also, they really don't need unrest to spread when they are already stripping the cupboard bare. It will give us something to watch. |
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WY, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 12:47:39 PM EDT
[Last Edit: GunGuyMP]
[#8]
There is a lot of smoke about mobilization...
https://nitter.net/WarMonitor3/status/1572264489742901254#m |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 12:50:31 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Squatch]
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GunGuyMP: There is a lot of smoke. https://nitter.net/WarMonitor3/status/1572264489742901254#m
Imagine being a 65-year old pensioner in Russia, hanging out drinking vodka at your Dacha, being told to report for duty in Ukraine. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 12:52:56 PM EDT
[Last Edit: TxRabbitBane]
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Former11BRAVO: When I get time to give you guys a recent history lesson, I will. And I never said they were 100% responsible. I put more blame on NATO/the West, in general. Just because it's "our side" doesn't mean we're wearing white hats all the time. We meddled for nefarious purposes and fostered a color revolution in Ukraine. We continued to add nations to NATO after promising we wouldn't - nations nowhere near the fucking Atlantic, I might add. We continued to poke the RU bear and then cried "Foul!" when he finally lashed out (after warning us repeatedly). That's no defense of Russia/Putin. It's just the truth - and it's only the tip of the iceberg. And look at the result: the whole world is about to either explode or go tits up, financially. Oh, but we get to puff out our chests and say how righteous we are, as the Earth and our way of life/civilization become a smoking ruin. That's great! NATO, in particular, is about to fracture, too. Some of our historic "partners" can't stand the pain and are about the jump ship. Hell, look at what Turkey just announced yesterday and what Germany is doing (or, not doing). Look at the other regional conflicts about to kick off. What's not to love, right? Yet, I'm the asshole for pointing out that we are/have been playing with fire. Fucking Biden & Co. (and the EU, NATO, WEF, et al) are the last people on this planet I would choose to lead us into any conflict, much less, a possible WWIII. They're also the last people I'd believe about anything - and with good reason. How long have they been lying to us about most everything? It's almost enough to make one nostalgic for the Cold War, I swear! Personally, I hope UA kicks the snot out of RU. My whole reason for being from 1983-89 was to kill Russians, so I have no love for them. But, I'm not foolish enough to think there might not be major, long-lasting consequences to us, for our part in this shit-show - catastrophic consequences, actually. And Heaven help us if we actually end up in a shooting war with Russia and/or China. Our munitions are depleted, our SPR is near dry and our forces are all waiting for their transition surgery, our .mil leadership is undergoing another political purge and we have unreliable allies! Again, what's not to love, right? Not to mention, our own southern border is being invaded. Last number I saw was something like 2.4 MILLION illegals interdicted just this year alone. How many came in undetected? But, we're worried about borders on the other side of the globe and investing irreplaceable resources and treasure into making it as painful and drawn out as possible for all involved. It's pathetic. But, keep cheering it on and attacking me, guys! You're the SMEs after all. What the fuck do I know about anything? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Former11BRAVO: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: Yeah please tell us how Ukraine is to blame at all for this invasion  When I get time to give you guys a recent history lesson, I will. And I never said they were 100% responsible. I put more blame on NATO/the West, in general. Just because it's "our side" doesn't mean we're wearing white hats all the time. We meddled for nefarious purposes and fostered a color revolution in Ukraine. We continued to add nations to NATO after promising we wouldn't - nations nowhere near the fucking Atlantic, I might add. We continued to poke the RU bear and then cried "Foul!" when he finally lashed out (after warning us repeatedly). That's no defense of Russia/Putin. It's just the truth - and it's only the tip of the iceberg. And look at the result: the whole world is about to either explode or go tits up, financially. Oh, but we get to puff out our chests and say how righteous we are, as the Earth and our way of life/civilization become a smoking ruin. That's great! NATO, in particular, is about to fracture, too. Some of our historic "partners" can't stand the pain and are about the jump ship. Hell, look at what Turkey just announced yesterday and what Germany is doing (or, not doing). Look at the other regional conflicts about to kick off. What's not to love, right? Yet, I'm the asshole for pointing out that we are/have been playing with fire. Fucking Biden & Co. (and the EU, NATO, WEF, et al) are the last people on this planet I would choose to lead us into any conflict, much less, a possible WWIII. They're also the last people I'd believe about anything - and with good reason. How long have they been lying to us about most everything? It's almost enough to make one nostalgic for the Cold War, I swear! Personally, I hope UA kicks the snot out of RU. My whole reason for being from 1983-89 was to kill Russians, so I have no love for them. But, I'm not foolish enough to think there might not be major, long-lasting consequences to us, for our part in this shit-show - catastrophic consequences, actually. And Heaven help us if we actually end up in a shooting war with Russia and/or China. Our munitions are depleted, our SPR is near dry and our forces are all waiting for their transition surgery, our .mil leadership is undergoing another political purge and we have unreliable allies! Again, what's not to love, right? Not to mention, our own southern border is being invaded. Last number I saw was something like 2.4 MILLION illegals interdicted just this year alone. How many came in undetected? But, we're worried about borders on the other side of the globe and investing irreplaceable resources and treasure into making it as painful and drawn out as possible for all involved. It's pathetic. But, keep cheering it on and attacking me, guys! You're the SMEs after all. What the fuck do I know about anything? First - you totally fail to address the post you quote, in that you still haven’t told us how it’s Ukraine’s fault they got invaded. Second, you blame NATO that former satellite states of the Soviet Union don’t want to be bullied into being part of Warsaw Pact v2.0 (speculative), being a puppet state (like Belarus … and was attempted in Ukraine, which you conveniently fail to mention in your “color revolution” talk), or invaded (Georgia, Crimea, now Ukraine). NATO isn’t putting pressure on these countries to join, they want to, because they need support to resist Russian expansionism (the whole reason NATO was created, but you know that, because you’re a history expert, right?)…. What was NATO supposed to do, say “no thanks, your border doesn’t touch the North Atlantic, and it says that in the label, so you’re shit out of luck…” ? Your assumptions are at best half truths (intentionally? No telling), and your speculations are nonsense. They’re your opinions, and you’re entitled to them, but to pretend they’re fact in the making is also nonsense, and the criticisms of those projections are just as valid. Nobody forced Russia to invade. Putin wants to get the band back together. Either you think that’s a good thing or a bad thing. Either way, it affects the US, and the West in general. You can either accept that or ignore it. Putin is a religious figure to you, after all. Nobody forced Russians to behave like orcs on a genocidal tear… they did that on their own. This has nothing to do with Biden or the southern border of the US, so don’t distract. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 12:53:45 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Squatch:
Imagine being a 65-year old pensioner in Russia, hanging out drinking vodka at your Dacha, being told to report for duty in Ukraine. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Squatch: Originally Posted By GunGuyMP: There is a lot of smoke. https://nitter.net/WarMonitor3/status/1572264489742901254#m
Imagine being a 65-year old pensioner in Russia, hanging out drinking vodka at your Dacha, being told to report for duty in Ukraine. My bro in law and FIL are gonna be pissed if this is true. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 12:55:15 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093: Are those viable against Russian tanks? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093: Originally Posted By m35ben: T55s have entered the chat. These aren't awful but there is better stuff being used by both sides. https://english.sta.si/3083185/slovenia-and-germany-agree-on-military-vehicle-exchange-with-ukraine No, not really. The 105mm gun will struggle to get a Kill even at closer ranges in the front, and I would not expect it's armor to do very well in holding up to a hit from anything significant. But the vast majority of vehicles in war are not tanks. The 105mm rifle will still savage anything short of a modern tank, and it has a large number of ammunition types available for it that will make it very useful in direct fire support for infantry. Like the Leopard 1, I can see them as being very useful if properly employed - assuming they can keep them running. |
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WY, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 12:56:12 PM EDT
[#13]
It's confusing because they can't logistically support what they have in Ukraine now. Don't have the equipment. It makes me think that Putin thinks there is material support coming from somewhere.
I am not an alarmist but it feels like we are a handful of decisions away from things getting out of hand. Also Russia moving troops from other places...https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1572266902411694083#m |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 12:56:57 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Paraflare: So am I off base here... RUS uses the "referendum" to absorb annexed regions into Russia proper saying the "people voted for it" line. RUS then can accuse UKR/NATO/NAFO of direct attacks on RUS sovereign territory. RUS then uses that excuse as an excuse to begin a pathway to full mobilization, further rhetoric about use of nuclear options. All of this happening now due to desperate situation in UKR. Is RUS about to go full retard? I think Russia will fully mobilize and turn its whole economy onto a war footing. I know most people here don’t think it’s possible for Putin to do this. But that doesn’t mean it’s not possible. Russia has lots vast amounts skilled man power and equipment. But that’s never stopped the Russians before. I believe Russia will get the raw materials it needs from China and maybe India. Most of the world never thought Russia would actually attack Ukraine but they did. So I think it’s possible Putin continues to survives and goes full retard with a full mobilization. People keep saying China wont help Russia because they are afraid of sanctions. We already sanction them to a point. But we can’t afford to fully sanction them to a point it makes them not help Russia. China has been stock piling food and commodities. They themselves are getting ready for a war. There is much going on that we don’t see and it’s very possibly Russia fully mobilizes and uses nukes in Ukraine. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:00:11 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Squatch:
Imagine being a 65-year old pensioner in Russia, hanging out drinking vodka at your Dacha, being told to report for duty in Ukraine. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Squatch: Originally Posted By GunGuyMP: There is a lot of smoke. https://nitter.net/WarMonitor3/status/1572264489742901254#m
Imagine being a 65-year old pensioner in Russia, hanging out drinking vodka at your Dacha, being told to report for duty in Ukraine. They will put the 65 year olds to work in the mines or the factories. This was bound to happen. All of the Russian Media has been hyping it up for months. Making the people think it was their own idea and cheer for it. A return to greatness for mighty Russia. It is about to get ugly for the next 5 years. |
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NY, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:00:32 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Squatch:
Imagine being a 65-year old pensioner in Russia, hanging out drinking vodka at your Dacha, being told to report for duty in Ukraine. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Squatch: Originally Posted By GunGuyMP: There is a lot of smoke. https://nitter.net/WarMonitor3/status/1572264489742901254#m
Imagine being a 65-year old pensioner in Russia, hanging out drinking vodka at your Dacha, being told to report for duty in Ukraine. Wonder if the guy on here who “fled” to Russia is sweating a bit right now. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:00:49 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: I think Russia will fully mobilize and turn its whole economy onto a war footing. I know most people here don't think it's possible for Putin to do this. But that doesn't mean it's not possible. Russia has lots vast amounts skilled man power and equipment. But that's never stopped the Russians before. I believe Russia will get the raw materials it needs from China and maybe India. Most of the world never thought Russia would actually attack Ukraine but they did. So I think it's possible Putin continues to survives and goes full retard with a full mobilization. People keep saying China wont help Russia because they are afraid of sanctions. We already sanction them to a point. But we can't afford to fully sanction them to a point it makes them not help Russia. China has been stock piling food and commodities. They themselves are getting ready for a war. There is much going on that we don't see and it's very possibly Russia fully mobilizes and uses nukes in Ukraine. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: Originally Posted By Paraflare: So am I off base here... RUS uses the "referendum" to absorb annexed regions into Russia proper saying the "people voted for it" line. RUS then can accuse UKR/NATO/NAFO of direct attacks on RUS sovereign territory. RUS then uses that excuse as an excuse to begin a pathway to full mobilization, further rhetoric about use of nuclear options. All of this happening now due to desperate situation in UKR. Is RUS about to go full retard? I think Russia will fully mobilize and turn its whole economy onto a war footing. I know most people here don't think it's possible for Putin to do this. But that doesn't mean it's not possible. Russia has lots vast amounts skilled man power and equipment. But that's never stopped the Russians before. I believe Russia will get the raw materials it needs from China and maybe India. Most of the world never thought Russia would actually attack Ukraine but they did. So I think it's possible Putin continues to survives and goes full retard with a full mobilization. People keep saying China wont help Russia because they are afraid of sanctions. We already sanction them to a point. But we can't afford to fully sanction them to a point it makes them not help Russia. China has been stock piling food and commodities. They themselves are getting ready for a war. There is much going on that we don't see and it's very possibly Russia fully mobilizes and uses nukes in Ukraine. The problem is they don't *make* anything themselves. They would have to build a defense industry practically from scratch by....springtime? Best case scenario? And that might be too late. Mobilization might happen. Transitioning the economy isn't going to though. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:01:07 PM EDT
[#18]
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:04:34 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryAwesome; great move for her. She's evidently too smart/aware to remain in Russia anyway. Wonder how many of her peers feel the same way but can't (or won't) ever leave. How many more stories of Russians coming "all the way" to the US to escape the sinking ship are there up till now, since the assault on Ukraine? What're the chances that she secretly plans to come to the US too but doesn't want to broadcast it? |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:04:40 PM EDT
[#20]
More on the M-55S:
 What are the M-55S Tanks Sent by Slovenia |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:08:20 PM EDT
[Last Edit: trapsh00ter99]
[#21]
 Failed To Load Title Just background talk now, but ready for if FVP makes his address. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:11:47 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: The problem is they don't *make* anything themselves. They would have to build a defense industry practically from scratch by....springtime? Best case scenario? And that might be too late. Mobilization might happen. Transitioning the economy isn't going to though. With the help of the Chinese they could retool some factories quickly. Plus if they fully mobilize this isn’t going to happen just over 6 months. This is Russia committing to a war for the long haul. 5+ years. WWII style of retooling a country. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:13:07 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Special-K: No, not really. The 105mm gun will struggle to get a Kill even at closer ranges in the front, and I would not expect it's armor to do very well in holding up to a hit from anything significant. But the vast majority of vehicles in war are not tanks. The 105mm rifle will still savage anything short of a modern tank, and it has a large number of ammunition types available for it that will make it very useful in direct fire support for infantry. Like the Leopard 1, I can see them as being very useful if properly employed - assuming they can keep them running. Even if it doesn't run it makes a decent stationary emplacement if supported by infantry and built up dirt. It still takes ATGMs or better to kill it even if it doesn't move. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:17:47 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Yeah, I've been thinking that since we're hesitant to send Abrams due to issues with logistics and maintenance, M1128 Strykers would be a halfway decent alternative. They're not a tank, but they've got a 105mm gun and would likely work great for the sort of offensive operations Ukraine is going to need to conduct to retake ground in the south. MGS has a lower OR rate than Abrams. It’s a turd. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:23:31 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: We would green light UKR to start hitting Russian refineries, Ol, ports, etc in Russia. The problem is they don't *make* anything themselves. They would have to build a defense industry practically from scratch by....springtime? Best case scenario? And that might be too late. Mobilization might happen. Transitioning the economy isn't going to though. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By GoldenMead: Originally Posted By Paraflare: So am I off base here... RUS uses the "referendum" to absorb annexed regions into Russia proper saying the "people voted for it" line. RUS then can accuse UKR/NATO/NAFO of direct attacks on RUS sovereign territory. RUS then uses that excuse as an excuse to begin a pathway to full mobilization, further rhetoric about use of nuclear options. All of this happening now due to desperate situation in UKR. Is RUS about to go full retard? I think Russia will fully mobilize and turn its whole economy onto a war footing. I know most people here don't think it's possible for Putin to do this. But that doesn't mean it's not possible. Russia has lots vast amounts skilled man power and equipment. But that's never stopped the Russians before. I believe Russia will get the raw materials it needs from China and maybe India. Most of the world never thought Russia would actually attack Ukraine but they did. So I think it's possible Putin continues to survives and goes full retard with a full mobilization. People keep saying China wont help Russia because they are afraid of sanctions. We already sanction them to a point. But we can't afford to fully sanction them to a point it makes them not help Russia. China has been stock piling food and commodities. They themselves are getting ready for a war. There is much going on that we don't see and it's very possibly Russia fully mobilizes and uses nukes in Ukraine. We would green light UKR to start hitting Russian refineries, Ol, ports, etc in Russia. The problem is they don't *make* anything themselves. They would have to build a defense industry practically from scratch by....springtime? Best case scenario? And that might be too late. Mobilization might happen. Transitioning the economy isn't going to though. We would allow Ukraine to start hitting gas refineries, pipelines, ports, and critical infrastructure if Russia mobilized. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:26:00 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: With the help of the Chinese they could retool some factories quickly. Plus if they fully mobilize this isn't going to happen just over 6 months. This is Russia committing to a war for the long haul. 5+ years. WWII style of retooling a country. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: The problem is they don't *make* anything themselves. They would have to build a defense industry practically from scratch by....springtime? Best case scenario? And that might be too late. Mobilization might happen. Transitioning the economy isn't going to though. With the help of the Chinese they could retool some factories quickly. Plus if they fully mobilize this isn't going to happen just over 6 months. This is Russia committing to a war for the long haul. 5+ years. WWII style of retooling a country. What makes you think they can do that quickly? What are they going to equip those fully mobilized with, and who/how will they train them? Untrained conscripts will not extend this war for 5 years. Russia doesn't have 5 years to make this happen. Russian industry and military is mired with so much corruption it makes the US look like boy scouts. 5 years under normal conditions would be a stretch, during war with sanctions? I don't think so. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:27:54 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Special-K: No, not really. The 105mm gun will struggle to get a Kill even at closer ranges in the front, and I would not expect it's armor to do very well in holding up to a hit from anything significant. But the vast majority of vehicles in war are not tanks. The 105mm rifle will still savage anything short of a modern tank, and it has a large number of ammunition types available for it that will make it very useful in direct fire support for infantry. Like the Leopard 1, I can see them as being very useful if properly employed - assuming they can keep them running. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Special-K: Originally Posted By ludder093: Originally Posted By m35ben: T55s have entered the chat. These aren't awful but there is better stuff being used by both sides. https://english.sta.si/3083185/slovenia-and-germany-agree-on-military-vehicle-exchange-with-ukraine No, not really. The 105mm gun will struggle to get a Kill even at closer ranges in the front, and I would not expect it's armor to do very well in holding up to a hit from anything significant. But the vast majority of vehicles in war are not tanks. The 105mm rifle will still savage anything short of a modern tank, and it has a large number of ammunition types available for it that will make it very useful in direct fire support for infantry. Like the Leopard 1, I can see them as being very useful if properly employed - assuming they can keep them running. IAI offers a top attack cannon launched 105mm round that should be effective against all armor. |
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ME, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:28:03 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: I think Russia will fully mobilize and turn its whole economy onto a war footing. I know most people here don’t think it’s possible for Putin to do this. But that doesn’t mean it’s not possible. Russia has lots vast amounts skilled man power and equipment. But that’s never stopped the Russians before. I believe Russia will get the raw materials it needs from China and maybe India. Most of the world never thought Russia would actually attack Ukraine but they did. So I think it’s possible Putin continues to survives and goes full retard with a full mobilization. People keep saying China wont help Russia because they are afraid of sanctions. We already sanction them to a point. But we can’t afford to fully sanction them to a point it makes them not help Russia. China has been stock piling food and commodities. They themselves are getting ready for a war. There is much going on that we don’t see and it’s very possibly Russia fully mobilizes and uses nukes in Ukraine. China won't help Russia because they greatly benefit from Russian decline and collapse. A stronger Europe is a positive market for China, but has no ability to project influence into china's sphere. |
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MN, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:32:53 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: The problem is they don't *make* anything themselves. They would have to build a defense industry practically from scratch by....springtime? Best case scenario? And that might be too late. Mobilization might happen. Transitioning the economy isn't going to though. Maybe they are powering up their vodka mills for massive amounts of copium they are going to need. |
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SC, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:36:23 PM EDT
[#30]
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MN, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:37:19 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: IAI offers a top attack cannon launched 105mm round that should be effective against all armor. Good thing the Israelis are allowing their tech on the battlefield Oh wait......... |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:37:34 PM EDT
[#32]
Typical day, map of Russian shelling reports.
 FIRMS 30min ago. 
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:39:03 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: IAI offers a top attack cannon launched 105mm round that should be effective against all armor. |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:41:58 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Saltwater-Hillbilly]
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: The problem is they don't *make* anything themselves. They would have to build a defense industry practically from scratch by....springtime? Best case scenario? And that might be too late. Mobilization might happen. Transitioning the economy isn't going to though. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By GoldenMead: Originally Posted By Paraflare: So am I off base here... RUS uses the "referendum" to absorb annexed regions into Russia proper saying the "people voted for it" line. RUS then can accuse UKR/NATO/NAFO of direct attacks on RUS sovereign territory. RUS then uses that excuse as an excuse to begin a pathway to full mobilization, further rhetoric about use of nuclear options. All of this happening now due to desperate situation in UKR. Is RUS about to go full retard? I think Russia will fully mobilize and turn its whole economy onto a war footing. I know most people here don't think it's possible for Putin to do this. But that doesn't mean it's not possible. Russia has lots vast amounts skilled man power and equipment. But that's never stopped the Russians before. I believe Russia will get the raw materials it needs from China and maybe India. Most of the world never thought Russia would actually attack Ukraine but they did. So I think it's possible Putin continues to survives and goes full retard with a full mobilization. People keep saying China wont help Russia because they are afraid of sanctions. We already sanction them to a point. But we can't afford to fully sanction them to a point it makes them not help Russia. China has been stock piling food and commodities. They themselves are getting ready for a war. There is much going on that we don't see and it's very possibly Russia fully mobilizes and uses nukes in Ukraine. The problem is they don't *make* anything themselves. They would have to build a defense industry practically from scratch by....springtime? Best case scenario? And that might be too late. Mobilization might happen. Transitioning the economy isn't going to though. The next question is, "How long can the Russians sustain this level of Mobilization"? I guarantee that neither India nor China is going to provide war materials to Russia on the basis that the US and British Empire underwrote the Soviet war effort against the Axis powers, so these will be no Indian/Chinese equivalent to WWII "Lend Lease" Also, the current population of Russia is smaller, older, and in poorer overall health than in Soviet days. What is the productivity of over-50 rookie workers on production lines, in agriculture, Transportation, distribution, and mining? How much of the Russian oil industry can be maintained after losing foreign expertise if you draft a large number of both the roughnecks AND the remaining skilled labor and you replace them with pensioners and babushkas? Or the railroad and road systems (which, in Russia, are both massive undertakings)? How many of the somewhat tech-savvy bright young things you DO manage draft from Moscow/St Pete are actually going to be available for the front, as there is an equally critical need for Russia to replace all of the losses of technical people in the Air Forces/Air Defense Forces/Strategic Forces/Navy that have been expended to date backfilling the Army in Ukraine? Who mans/operates all the ports/airports/terminals when the most productive people get drafted? How long until all this additional stress craters whatever is left the the Russian healthcare system, as everything from heart attacks to industrial accidents to transportation accidents will increase; not to mention the care for seriously injured and disabled military casualties that will be eventually dumped into the Civilian health care establishment? Best case for Russia, there is a "Sweet Spot" from 6-18 months where the benefits of mass-mobilization outweigh the drawbacks. Worst Case, whatever is left of the Russian economy collapses within the next 90 days with all the key industries and logistics nodes beginning an unrecoverable "death spiral" that, like the post-Civil War American South, will take decades to recover from. Remember that the South's Economy collapsed long before their Army, as did the German and Austro-Hungarian economies in WWI. |
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USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:45:41 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By _disconnector_: As a certified datacenter wire nazi I can relate. "If it ain't beautiful, it ain't repairable kids" I could post pics to make you made too. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:46:19 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: The next question is, "How long can the Russians sustain this level of Mobilization"? I guarantee that neither India nor China is going to provide war materials to Russia on the basis that the US and British Empire underwrote the Soviet war effort against the Axis powers, so these will be no Indian/Chinese equivalent to WWII "Lend Lease" Also, the current population of Russia is smaller, older, and in poorer overall health than in Soviet days. What is the productivity of over-50 rookie workers on production lines, in agriculture, Transportation, distribution, and mining? How much of the Russian oil industry can be maintained after losing foreign expertise if you draft a large number of both the roughnecks AND the remaining skilled labor and you replace them with pensioners and babushkas? Or the railroad and road systems (which, in Russia, are both massive undertakings)? How many of the somewhat tech-savvy bright young things you DO manage draft from Moscow/St Pete are actually going to be available for the front, as there is an equally critical need for Russia to replace all of the losses of technical people in the Air Forces/Air Defense Forces/Strategic Forces/Navy that have been expended to date backfilling the Army in Ukraine? Who mans/operates all the ports/airports/terminals when the most productive people get drafted? How long until all this additional stress craters whatever is left the the Russian healthcare system, as everything from heart attacks to industrial accidents to transportation accidents will increase; not to mention the care for seriously injured and disabled military casualties that will be eventually dumped into the Civilian health care establishment? Best case for Russia, there is a "Sweet Spot" from 6-18 months where the benefits of mass-mobilization outweigh the drawbacks. Worst Case, whatever is left of the Russian economy collapses within the next 90 days with all the key industries and logistics nodes begin an unrecoverable "death spiral" that, like the post-Civil War American South, will take decades to recover from. Remember that the South's Economy collapsed long before their Army, as did the German and Austro-Hungarian economies in WWI. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By GoldenMead: Originally Posted By Paraflare: So am I off base here... RUS uses the "referendum" to absorb annexed regions into Russia proper saying the "people voted for it" line. RUS then can accuse UKR/NATO/NAFO of direct attacks on RUS sovereign territory. RUS then uses that excuse as an excuse to begin a pathway to full mobilization, further rhetoric about use of nuclear options. All of this happening now due to desperate situation in UKR. Is RUS about to go full retard? I think Russia will fully mobilize and turn its whole economy onto a war footing. I know most people here don't think it's possible for Putin to do this. But that doesn't mean it's not possible. Russia has lots vast amounts skilled man power and equipment. But that's never stopped the Russians before. I believe Russia will get the raw materials it needs from China and maybe India. Most of the world never thought Russia would actually attack Ukraine but they did. So I think it's possible Putin continues to survives and goes full retard with a full mobilization. People keep saying China wont help Russia because they are afraid of sanctions. We already sanction them to a point. But we can't afford to fully sanction them to a point it makes them not help Russia. China has been stock piling food and commodities. They themselves are getting ready for a war. There is much going on that we don't see and it's very possibly Russia fully mobilizes and uses nukes in Ukraine. The problem is they don't *make* anything themselves. They would have to build a defense industry practically from scratch by....springtime? Best case scenario? And that might be too late. Mobilization might happen. Transitioning the economy isn't going to though. The next question is, "How long can the Russians sustain this level of Mobilization"? I guarantee that neither India nor China is going to provide war materials to Russia on the basis that the US and British Empire underwrote the Soviet war effort against the Axis powers, so these will be no Indian/Chinese equivalent to WWII "Lend Lease" Also, the current population of Russia is smaller, older, and in poorer overall health than in Soviet days. What is the productivity of over-50 rookie workers on production lines, in agriculture, Transportation, distribution, and mining? How much of the Russian oil industry can be maintained after losing foreign expertise if you draft a large number of both the roughnecks AND the remaining skilled labor and you replace them with pensioners and babushkas? Or the railroad and road systems (which, in Russia, are both massive undertakings)? How many of the somewhat tech-savvy bright young things you DO manage draft from Moscow/St Pete are actually going to be available for the front, as there is an equally critical need for Russia to replace all of the losses of technical people in the Air Forces/Air Defense Forces/Strategic Forces/Navy that have been expended to date backfilling the Army in Ukraine? Who mans/operates all the ports/airports/terminals when the most productive people get drafted? How long until all this additional stress craters whatever is left the the Russian healthcare system, as everything from heart attacks to industrial accidents to transportation accidents will increase; not to mention the care for seriously injured and disabled military casualties that will be eventually dumped into the Civilian health care establishment? Best case for Russia, there is a "Sweet Spot" from 6-18 months where the benefits of mass-mobilization outweigh the drawbacks. Worst Case, whatever is left of the Russian economy collapses within the next 90 days with all the key industries and logistics nodes begin an unrecoverable "death spiral" that, like the post-Civil War American South, will take decades to recover from. Remember that the South's Economy collapsed long before their Army, as did the German and Austro-Hungarian economies in WWI. All good questions and observations. If I had to guess, this potential mob might actually be the final nail in the RF's coffin, or at least Putin's. We'll see. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:47:22 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO:
These muthafuckers they need to shit or get off the pot |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:50:32 PM EDT
[#38]
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FL, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:50:57 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: All good questions and observations. If I had to guess, this potential mob might actually be the final nail in the RF's coffin, or at least Putin's. We'll see. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By GoldenMead: Originally Posted By Paraflare: So am I off base here... RUS uses the "referendum" to absorb annexed regions into Russia proper saying the "people voted for it" line. RUS then can accuse UKR/NATO/NAFO of direct attacks on RUS sovereign territory. RUS then uses that excuse as an excuse to begin a pathway to full mobilization, further rhetoric about use of nuclear options. All of this happening now due to desperate situation in UKR. Is RUS about to go full retard? I think Russia will fully mobilize and turn its whole economy onto a war footing. I know most people here don't think it's possible for Putin to do this. But that doesn't mean it's not possible. Russia has lots vast amounts skilled man power and equipment. But that's never stopped the Russians before. I believe Russia will get the raw materials it needs from China and maybe India. Most of the world never thought Russia would actually attack Ukraine but they did. So I think it's possible Putin continues to survives and goes full retard with a full mobilization. People keep saying China wont help Russia because they are afraid of sanctions. We already sanction them to a point. But we can't afford to fully sanction them to a point it makes them not help Russia. China has been stock piling food and commodities. They themselves are getting ready for a war. There is much going on that we don't see and it's very possibly Russia fully mobilizes and uses nukes in Ukraine. The problem is they don't *make* anything themselves. They would have to build a defense industry practically from scratch by....springtime? Best case scenario? And that might be too late. Mobilization might happen. Transitioning the economy isn't going to though. The next question is, "How long can the Russians sustain this level of Mobilization"? I guarantee that neither India nor China is going to provide war materials to Russia on the basis that the US and British Empire underwrote the Soviet war effort against the Axis powers, so these will be no Indian/Chinese equivalent to WWII "Lend Lease" Also, the current population of Russia is smaller, older, and in poorer overall health than in Soviet days. What is the productivity of over-50 rookie workers on production lines, in agriculture, Transportation, distribution, and mining? How much of the Russian oil industry can be maintained after losing foreign expertise if you draft a large number of both the roughnecks AND the remaining skilled labor and you replace them with pensioners and babushkas? Or the railroad and road systems (which, in Russia, are both massive undertakings)? How many of the somewhat tech-savvy bright young things you DO manage draft from Moscow/St Pete are actually going to be available for the front, as there is an equally critical need for Russia to replace all of the losses of technical people in the Air Forces/Air Defense Forces/Strategic Forces/Navy that have been expended to date backfilling the Army in Ukraine? Who mans/operates all the ports/airports/terminals when the most productive people get drafted? How long until all this additional stress craters whatever is left the the Russian healthcare system, as everything from heart attacks to industrial accidents to transportation accidents will increase; not to mention the care for seriously injured and disabled military casualties that will be eventually dumped into the Civilian health care establishment? Best case for Russia, there is a "Sweet Spot" from 6-18 months where the benefits of mass-mobilization outweigh the drawbacks. Worst Case, whatever is left of the Russian economy collapses within the next 90 days with all the key industries and logistics nodes begin an unrecoverable "death spiral" that, like the post-Civil War American South, will take decades to recover from. Remember that the South's Economy collapsed long before their Army, as did the German and Austro-Hungarian economies in WWI. All good questions and observations. If I had to guess, this potential mob might actually be the final nail in the RF's coffin, or at least Putin's. We'll see. Yep, Putin is "all in" and is rolling Bismarck's "Iron Dice" on this one. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:50:58 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: With the help of the Chinese they could retool some factories quickly. Plus if they fully mobilize this isn’t going to happen just over 6 months. This is Russia committing to a war for the long haul. 5+ years. WWII style of retooling a country. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: The problem is they don't *make* anything themselves. They would have to build a defense industry practically from scratch by....springtime? Best case scenario? And that might be too late. Mobilization might happen. Transitioning the economy isn't going to though. With the help of the Chinese they could retool some factories quickly. Plus if they fully mobilize this isn’t going to happen just over 6 months. This is Russia committing to a war for the long haul. 5+ years. WWII style of retooling a country. Russia can't fund this war for 5 years. They probably can't fund this war for even 1 more year. We are just starting to see the effects of sanctions, but the effects will accelerate. Also, Russia cutting off gas supplies to Europe is very much a double edged sword. It denies fuel to Europe, but cuts off a source of funds for Russia. I think what we are seeing are the last, desperate gasps of the Putin regime. I suspect the wheels simply fall off pretty soon. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:51:54 PM EDT
[#41]
I truly believe someone else is going to enter into the war, who or how, I don't know.
China North Korea Belarus Iran India Pakistan |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:53:24 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: The next question is, "How long can the Russians sustain this level of Mobilization"? I guarantee that neither India nor China is going to provide war materials to Russia on the basis that the US and British Empire underwrote the Soviet war effort against the Axis powers, so these will be no Indian/Chinese equivalent to WWII "Lend Lease" Also, the current population of Russia is smaller, older, and in poorer overall health than in Soviet days. What is the productivity of over-50 rookie workers on production lines, in agriculture, Transportation, distribution, and mining? How much of the Russian oil industry can be maintained after losing foreign expertise if you draft a large number of both the roughnecks AND the remaining skilled labor and you replace them with pensioners and babushkas? Or the railroad and road systems (which, in Russia, are both massive undertakings)? How many of the somewhat tech-savvy bright young things you DO manage draft from Moscow/St Pete are actually going to be available for the front, as there is an equally critical need for Russia to replace all of the losses of technical people in the Air Forces/Air Defense Forces/Strategic Forces/Navy that have been expended to date backfilling the Army in Ukraine? Who mans/operates all the ports/airports/terminals when the most productive people get drafted? How long until all this additional stress craters whatever is left the the Russian healthcare system, as everything from heart attacks to industrial accidents to transportation accidents will increase; not to mention the care for seriously injured and disabled military casualties that will be eventually dumped into the Civilian health care establishment? Best case for Russia, there is a "Sweet Spot" from 6-18 months where the benefits of mass-mobilization outweigh the drawbacks. Worst Case, whatever is left of the Russian economy collapses within the next 90 days with all the key industries and logistics nodes beginning an unrecoverable "death spiral" that, like the post-Civil War American South, will take decades to recover from. Remember that the South's Economy collapsed long before their Army, as did the German and Austro-Hungarian economies in WWI. YOu know all that stuff we left over in Afghanistan and Iraq.......I think its about to enter the chat. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:54:57 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By NEXT23: YOu know all that stuff we left over in Afghanistan and Iraq.......I think its about to enter the chat. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By NEXT23: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: The next question is, "How long can the Russians sustain this level of Mobilization"? I guarantee that neither India nor China is going to provide war materials to Russia on the basis that the US and British Empire underwrote the Soviet war effort against the Axis powers, so these will be no Indian/Chinese equivalent to WWII "Lend Lease" Also, the current population of Russia is smaller, older, and in poorer overall health than in Soviet days. What is the productivity of over-50 rookie workers on production lines, in agriculture, Transportation, distribution, and mining? How much of the Russian oil industry can be maintained after losing foreign expertise if you draft a large number of both the roughnecks AND the remaining skilled labor and you replace them with pensioners and babushkas? Or the railroad and road systems (which, in Russia, are both massive undertakings)? How many of the somewhat tech-savvy bright young things you DO manage draft from Moscow/St Pete are actually going to be available for the front, as there is an equally critical need for Russia to replace all of the losses of technical people in the Air Forces/Air Defense Forces/Strategic Forces/Navy that have been expended to date backfilling the Army in Ukraine? Who mans/operates all the ports/airports/terminals when the most productive people get drafted? How long until all this additional stress craters whatever is left the the Russian healthcare system, as everything from heart attacks to industrial accidents to transportation accidents will increase; not to mention the care for seriously injured and disabled military casualties that will be eventually dumped into the Civilian health care establishment? Best case for Russia, there is a "Sweet Spot" from 6-18 months where the benefits of mass-mobilization outweigh the drawbacks. Worst Case, whatever is left of the Russian economy collapses within the next 90 days with all the key industries and logistics nodes beginning an unrecoverable "death spiral" that, like the post-Civil War American South, will take decades to recover from. Remember that the South's Economy collapsed long before their Army, as did the German and Austro-Hungarian economies in WWI. YOu know all that stuff we left over in Afghanistan and Iraq.......I think its about to enter the chat. You think the Taliban is going to take that stuff to Ukraine to fight? Or just willingly give it up and ship it there or something? Why would they do that? |
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USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:55:20 PM EDT
[Last Edit: thehun06]
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By trapsh00ter99:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pZDCfBVbScJust background talk now, but ready for if FVP makes his address. WW3 in 3...2...1... |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:55:38 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sq40: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/49447/C18F14D5-B634-40B3-8061-0B3CA0973A09_jpe-2533112.JPG Scuttling sound of intelligent feet getting out rfn. I bet you a shiny penny that Vatos will show up at the front in WWII uniforms toting 54R guns. |
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IL, USA
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:56:11 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kncook: If any Russian Citizens had any thoughts of getting out of Dodge now would be the optimal time to do so. Gentlemen, I suggest we leave at the speed most optimum.... |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:57:15 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By NEXT23: I truly believe someone else is going to enter into the war, who or how, I don't know. China North Korea Belarus Iran India Pakistan I'm honestly curious why you think any of these countries would join Russia? As soon as they do, not only do they potentially face Western military they almost certainly will join Russia in massive sanctions. The current nature of the global economy gives the west a potent financial weapon. The only country on the list I would ranks as having any possibility is Belarus, due to the close ties of their dictator with Russia's dictator. Will some of those countries sell stuff to Russia or render some limited assistance? Sure, we see that now. Will they enter into armed conflict with Ukraine? Almost certainly no (other than Belarus, which I still think is unlikely). Risk vs. Reward. What does a country risk for assisting Russia vs. what does it gain? The risks are monumental and the rewards almost nonexistent. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:57:24 PM EDT
[Last Edit: TxRabbitBane]
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: With the help of the Chinese they could retool some factories quickly. Plus if they fully mobilize this isn’t going to happen just over 6 months. This is Russia committing to a war for the long haul. 5+ years. WWII style of retooling a country. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: The problem is they don't *make* anything themselves. They would have to build a defense industry practically from scratch by....springtime? Best case scenario? And that might be too late. Mobilization might happen. Transitioning the economy isn't going to though. With the help of the Chinese they could retool some factories quickly. Plus if they fully mobilize this isn’t going to happen just over 6 months. This is Russia committing to a war for the long haul. 5+ years. WWII style of retooling a country. Why would China do that? It’s not like they’re friends…. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 1:59:23 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: You think the Taliban is going to take that stuff to Ukraine to fight? Or just willingly give it up and ship it there or something? Why would they do that? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By NEXT23: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: The next question is, "How long can the Russians sustain this level of Mobilization"? I guarantee that neither India nor China is going to provide war materials to Russia on the basis that the US and British Empire underwrote the Soviet war effort against the Axis powers, so these will be no Indian/Chinese equivalent to WWII "Lend Lease" Also, the current population of Russia is smaller, older, and in poorer overall health than in Soviet days. What is the productivity of over-50 rookie workers on production lines, in agriculture, Transportation, distribution, and mining? How much of the Russian oil industry can be maintained after losing foreign expertise if you draft a large number of both the roughnecks AND the remaining skilled labor and you replace them with pensioners and babushkas? Or the railroad and road systems (which, in Russia, are both massive undertakings)? How many of the somewhat tech-savvy bright young things you DO manage draft from Moscow/St Pete are actually going to be available for the front, as there is an equally critical need for Russia to replace all of the losses of technical people in the Air Forces/Air Defense Forces/Strategic Forces/Navy that have been expended to date backfilling the Army in Ukraine? Who mans/operates all the ports/airports/terminals when the most productive people get drafted? How long until all this additional stress craters whatever is left the the Russian healthcare system, as everything from heart attacks to industrial accidents to transportation accidents will increase; not to mention the care for seriously injured and disabled military casualties that will be eventually dumped into the Civilian health care establishment? Best case for Russia, there is a "Sweet Spot" from 6-18 months where the benefits of mass-mobilization outweigh the drawbacks. Worst Case, whatever is left of the Russian economy collapses within the next 90 days with all the key industries and logistics nodes beginning an unrecoverable "death spiral" that, like the post-Civil War American South, will take decades to recover from. Remember that the South's Economy collapsed long before their Army, as did the German and Austro-Hungarian economies in WWI. YOu know all that stuff we left over in Afghanistan and Iraq.......I think its about to enter the chat. You think the Taliban is going to take that stuff to Ukraine to fight? Or just willingly give it up and ship it there or something? Why would they do that? I agree. A basic risk vs. reward evaluation shows none of these other countries suddenly joining to fight Ukraine as being even remotely plausible. |
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Posted: 9/20/2022 2:00:08 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By NEXT23: I truly believe someone else is going to enter into the war, who or how, I don't know. China North Korea Belarus Iran India Pakistan |
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