I did quite well. Averaged a total of 13.2% total average return for 2004...
I don't generally market time, nor do I play markets. I'm stock heavy (about 80%). I simply try to allocated funds across teh spectrum. (equally into large, mid and small cap, value, blend and growth). I do NOT generally get into any specialty funds. I simply look for highly rated funds, with proven fund managers that have been at the helm for 10 years or more and who consistently rate better than average. When all else is equal, I choose the fund with the lower expenses. It's work so far....
I made two deliberate departures from this strategy. I've looked at Greenspan (freakin idiot) and how he dropped rates through the floor. Everyone and his brother, including the government, went on a massive spending spree. I figured we gotta pay it back sometime, and figured out dollar was going to take a real pounding. So I moved a good bit of money in foriegn funds and metal.
Both plays turned out really good. The weakening US dollar meant those forieng funds went way up. Depending of the fund, I'm talking 30-40% range... I did very well on Gold Corp too. (GG).
Interest rates are on the way up. Its going to cool the housing market. Since housing is a HUGE component of our recent "economic recovery", I figure its going to hurt. It also has to hurt consumer spending, the other engine of our economy. Both are going to hurt. Our national debt is WAY out of control, and overseas debt holders are jumpy.
I've gone from about 8-10% foriegn to about 30%, and aiming for more like 40%. I seen NOTHING here at home that excites me about our economic prospects. GM/Delphi/Delta/Etc all look like they are in the shitter. We have a massive social security/medicare/demographic time bomb on the horizon, a crappy economy, spend all our money on Chinese shit at walmart, use our homes as Home Equity ATMS so we can buy more junk, and our fearless (brainless?) leaders are spending tax dollars they don't have on more government handouts...
The end result? Our dollar isn't going to get stronger. If anything, its going south. Foriegn funds are going to look really good, if only for the exchange rate issue....