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AR15.COM
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8/17/2012 10:36:54 AM EDT
How good is their statistical analysis program linked to the site?
8/17/2012 12:25:02 PM EDT
[#1]
Like any statistics, it is open to a wide range of interpretation. So far the higher percentages
have been fairly accurate. It generally boils down to "Hey, the wait is about 6 months, give or take a
month, month and a half, mostly..."
8/17/2012 12:40:06 PM EDT
[#2]
It estimates a 30 day window at the end of a nominal 6 month wait.  So I'd say its accuracy is +/-15 days or +/-8%.

I have a feeling that's not what you were looking for, but I'm not quite sure what answer you were looking for.
8/17/2012 1:27:26 PM EDT
[#3]
Right now I think it's a little too conservative when it gives the % chance you get it in a certain month.

When it gives the statement - "71% Of similar applicants would have their stamp by now."

That's completely wrong. I have a couple more weeks before I get into the zone of possibly getting my stamp. I haven't seen anyone report getting there stamp back with my pending date.

8/17/2012 1:51:28 PM EDT
[#4]
Can I ask what your dates are?  You can PM them if you'd like, and I won't be offended if you say no.

In the meantime, I notice the tracker says that it takes the new trend into account, so perhaps it's underestimating a bit based on that?
8/18/2012 4:55:07 PM EDT
[#5]
Pending 4/10

The latest approved I have seen was 3/23. So I figure three more weeks at least for me.
8/18/2012 10:21:24 PM EDT
[#6]
Quoted:
Pending 4/10

The latest approved I have seen was 3/23. So I figure three more weeks at least for me.


Yeah my check was cashed 4/3. If we are going on 5.5 months, we should see something by the end of this month. If we don't, it will be at 6 months which will be by the end of next month, September.
8/18/2012 11:27:38 PM EDT
[#7]
My SBR went pending 3/26/12.  Approved 8/6/12.  Stamp received 8/10/12.  So pending to RECEIVED was 4 months 15 days.
8/18/2012 11:38:40 PM EDT
[#8]
Quoted:
Pending 4/10

The latest approved I have seen was 3/23. So I figure three more weeks at least for me.

Yeah, based on your date and other info from the tracker, I'd put it at two weeks.  Good luck!
8/19/2012 2:17:54 PM EDT
[#9]
I spent 2 hours on NFAtracker site. I looked up GA submissions and theres only about 5 pages long so really, thats only maybe 200-300 total people, per 6 months, who submitted on NFAtracker vs maybe 1,000 or 2,000 applications they receive each month. So we are missing a huge portion to have the "calculator" to be give the right estimate.
8/19/2012 4:33:12 PM EDT
[#10]
True, but it's still a decent sample. I encourage everyone to input their info to help all of us.
8/19/2012 5:44:02 PM EDT
[#11]
I really wish people would stop submitting entries with only submitted dates...

Wait until you have ALL the info!
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