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Posted: 2/5/2006 6:12:47 PM EDT
[#1]
If you carry a gun outside an active combat zone...cop or not...ANY shooting incident you are involved in is a statistical anomaly...the exception to the rule. Given that fact, what makes you think that there is any sort of "average' gunfight?
I could go on and on with real incidents I have either been directly involved in (as a responding or investigating LEO) including the Pharmacist who fired all 5 rounds in his J frame S&W at the bad guy and was out of ammo...whereupon the bad guy...who was NOT out of ammo...walked up and shot him in the head while he begged for his life! The facts are that if you do not resolve the issue with the first few rounds, the side with the most "firepower" will probably win if the BGs don't haul ass...and they do NOT always run away. (And I could tell you about the armed robbery gang who, when one of their guys was killed by an armed clerk, drove back around to the front door in their van and fired over 50 rounds at the clerk inside the store...luckily they could not shoot for shit!) Yes, 5 or 6 rounds will usually get the job done...but what if they don't? What if your auto has a malfunction? What if you DO need more ammo? I never carry without at least one full reload for whatever I am carrying...never...and two reloads is better. "Average"? Well, if you put one foot in a bucket of boiling water, and the other in a bucket of ice water, then I guess "on average" you should be comfortable...right? |
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Posted: 2/5/2006 6:34:35 PM EDT
[#2]
Just in case you missed it the first time. |
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Posted: 2/5/2006 7:19:50 PM EDT
[#3]
I surely would want to carry an extra mag or two if I could carry and conceal them. I have a phone on my belt, along with a Surefire light. In my right front pocket is a KelTec P40 with ten rounds.
A few days ago it hit EIGHTY degrees here! In January! I rarely wear a jacket. I need to tuck my shirt in. I have keys, pocket knife, and change in my left pocket. I am not disagreeing with you guys at all.... carry the reloads! It just doesn't seem to work for me. |
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Posted: 2/5/2006 10:00:00 PM EDT
[#4]
There are several ankle holster style mag pouches that are quite comfortable whenyou are wearing long pants. You might check them out. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 6:47:13 AM EDT
[#5]
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Posted: 2/6/2006 9:26:46 AM EDT
[#6]
Because I can identify the characteristics of an average gunfight. One can identify and describe the characteristics of virtually any activity, and that allows one to identify what constitutes an average. Very simple. We can define the average rape, the average bank robbery, the average burglary (home or business) and so on. We can list the characteristiics of the average driver or parachutist or armed robber. Why should a gunfight be any different?
And when you get enough real incidents you can start getting fairly accurate when discussing the average incident.
But what if 20 rounds isn't enough? But what if 50 rounds isn't enough? But what if 6 guns with 37 magazines isn't enough? One can play "what if" all day long, or one can talk about reality. I know which I'd prefer to use to make a decision.
No, and the fact that you would suggest that shows that your understanding of how research science and statistics work is quite lacking. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 9:38:50 AM EDT
[#7]
It would be wise to consider if you are at home. I may even break open the carboard box and start reloading magazines. For CCW I carry just the pistol with mag (15+1) |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 9:50:35 AM EDT
[#8]
darm, if the average gunfight requires 6 rounds then half of all fights require more than 6. At the upper end of the bell curve you might need more than one magazine.
A while back a study was done. The only type of gunfight where an average of 2-3 shots are expended are gunfights where an officer is killed. Armed citizens lethal encounters are not studied well. In shootings where the officer lived, he usually fired 5-8 shots or more. Hell, look at the story of the NYPD cop who shot the two guys before being killed. He fired all eight rounds, hit 6-8 times (depends on who you ask) and no fatalities resulted, except his. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 9:52:49 AM EDT
[#9]
What fucking pisses me off about this thread is a few people who are perfectly willing to carry a gun around every day because there is a 1 in 1000 chance that they will get in a gunfight, but are perfectly ready to run out of ammo and die if their gunfight falls outside of statistical norms. Read my sig line.
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Posted: 2/6/2006 9:56:22 AM EDT
[#10]
Actually, that's not at all what the average means (unless you have a perfect distribution, of course). If the median gunfight requires 6, then you would be correct. (You haven't had stats yet, right?  )(Just pickin' at you a little... I do agree with your post in principle.  )
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Posted: 2/6/2006 10:38:43 AM EDT
[#11]
Don't get carried away guys. Its not a matter of statistics or averages but using some common sense.
Driving your car in a really nice neighborhood to the post office to drop off some mail isn't the same as going down in gangville in the middle of the night. CCW carry in rual Iowa isn't the same as downtown Detroit. Cothing also plays a factor. Going to the beach wearing an overcoat so you can hide your massive handgun and mags is like wearing a sign that says, he has a gun, shoot here first. What you do for a living is also a factor. Working in a 7-11 in the ghetto isn't the same as a factory job with gates and security guards. God forbid you actually have to shoot someone, how much ammo you carry as well as what you carry will be an influencing factor to the police, DA, and jury. Of course better judged by 12 than carried by 6 does apply but it doesn't mean you have to set in the highshool gym with a G17 and almost 50 rounds either. Some people may have this romantic idea of shooting to the end with a dozen badguys but this ole boy has no intention to and getting out of a jam figures promenently in my intent. Tj |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 10:41:42 AM EDT
[#12]
Carrying a concealed weapon is all about mitigating risk (where risk = "potential threat", right?)
I find it amazing that there are multiple pages of people arguing that after going through the effort of applying for a permit, getting training, thinking about scenarios over and over again, etc, it's unreasonable to further mitigate risk by just putting an extra magazine on your belt. Hell, why wouldn't you when it costs you nothing in the end and could, in all reality save your life just the same as the weapon in your holster. The philosophy of carrying a gun is "It's better to have it and not need it then to need it and not have it". For me personally, the same philosophy applies to an extra 8 rounds on my belt. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 10:54:44 AM EDT
[#13]
Sorry, I know the difference between mean, median and mode but I wasn't thinking clearly. But the point stands. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 10:57:38 AM EDT
[#14]
Yup, you have not seen the pic of me concealing the beta C mag in my 1911 yet huh?   +1 on the two mags, for whatever capacity they are, just make sure they are maintained and do not have a history of any failures. I personally will not carry anything I am not comfortable with or would not trust my life on. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 11:01:28 AM EDT
[#15]
If 99% of gunfights end in one shot and 1% need 500 shots to end, you still have an average of 6 shots needed for a gun fight. Just hope you're not that 1%.
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Posted: 2/6/2006 11:16:52 AM EDT
[#16]
Now THAT is some scary math!  But yeah, I can't imagine how horifying it would be to be the one guy out of 100 that hit slide lock and thought "crap, what do I do now, throw my gun at 'em?"ETA: If I did have to throw my gun at 'em, I'm sure glad they're all steel framed.
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Posted: 2/6/2006 11:26:39 AM EDT
[#17]
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Posted: 2/6/2006 11:36:59 AM EDT
[#18]
Well, darm441, I was not trying to call into question the workings of research science and statistics, and you are right...I really don't know "how they work"...nor do I really care. You may be able to draw up a description of what some research scientist or statistician THINKS is the "average" gunfight, but it would not be of any benefit as the next fight will BE whatever it will be. Unfortunately, you, or I, or whoever happens to be right in the middle of it will have to fight with what we brought...and if we don't bring enough, well we just might get to find out what really happens when the "average" dead guy dies. How much is "enough"? For me, one or two reloads minimum...more if I feel I need it. For you? I cannot say. The comment about the water buckets and "average" was an attenpt tp make a point...obviously you are so full of yourself it was lost on you. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 11:41:27 AM EDT
[#19]
Murphy's Law is probably the best statistic to refer to and it says carry an extra mag.
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Posted: 2/6/2006 11:52:53 AM EDT
[#20]
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Posted: 2/6/2006 12:04:19 PM EDT
[#21]
Sorry, still wrong.
Sorry, wrong again. Unless you want to give a different source I'll assume you are discussing the FBI LE Killed data, which did show that. However, there are also numerous studies that show an average expenditure of 2-3 rounds in gunfights that officers survive.
And having another magazine would have changed that?? Not according to all the info I've seen on it. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 12:14:26 PM EDT
[#22]
That pretty much says it all---"don't confuse me with the facts, I've already made up my mind!"
Sure it will. How do you think people conduct risk analysis? They look at averages, they determine probabilites, etc. That is how they decide what to prepare for.
But how do you determine that? How do yo udecide if it should be one reload or two? How do you figure out if you "feel" like you need more? Do you throw dice, watch the latest Steven Segal movie, read the entrails of a chicken, read tea leaves. or what? I prefer to make my determinations based on good data and research.
Oh no, the point was very clear--you have no idea what you are talking about. I caught that right away. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 12:17:17 PM EDT
[#23]
Heh  |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 12:28:24 PM EDT
[#24]
I think while you've made it clear that there is some analysis to be done and benefit to be had from that analysis, the point is that if half of 100 confrontations required an extra mag and half of them didn't, there is no way to predict whether the 101st will require one or not unless you know where it's going to occur and under what circumstances. That prediction being impossible, I'll err on the side of caution and pack the extra mag. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 12:35:45 PM EDT
[#25]
I'll give this, the average gunfight may last 2-3 rounds. What will you do if it doesn't? I will not prepare for the averages. I will prepare to deal with the greatest threat that I can manageably prepare for. I don't go absolutely nuts and carry a bat-belt, but feeling that anything you do will be some magical average number or less simply shows lack of forethought and arrogance beyond belief. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 12:59:13 PM EDT
[#26]
Real world example:
Last summer a large aggressive water moccassin started for my boat so I pulled out my Kahr PM9 and opened fire. Trying to hit a moving snake at 15 yards darting through the water is not easy with a pistol, but I finally hit it on the last shot. Right through the heart. If I didn't carry an extra mag I would have been out of ammo from that point on, but I did carry one, so I wasn't out. Sort of like a spare tire. Most of the times you don't need it, but when you do, you're glad you have it. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 12:59:43 PM EDT
[#27]
ikor has had what... 20+ years in law enforcement? I wonder who has a better idea of what is really "out there" and how to prepare for it? I know who KNOWS what he is talking about. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 1:01:06 PM EDT
[#28]
I cannot honestly believe that there are people (and I use that term loosely) here who would berate a person who feels there life is worth carrying an extra mag. It's just sad.
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Posted: 2/6/2006 1:09:08 PM EDT
[#29]
But the numbers are not that close. It is more like 99 of the 100 confrontations do not require the extra mag. FWIW, I'm not saying don't carry the extra mag. I think in the cost/benefit department you get a reasonable return on the investment. All I am saying is that one should make the decision (and all decisions, for that matter) based on an accurate assessment of real data, instead of wild guesses. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 1:14:06 PM EDT
[#30]
Use my last 5 bullets to shoot 5 more badguys? I'll do the same thing the fellow who is carrying 16 rounds will do if the gunfight lasts more than that, which is the same thing that the fellow who is carrying 35 rounds will do if the gunfight lasts more than that, and the same thing the fellow carrying 100 rounds will do if the gunfight lasts more than that. There is always a stopping point that will be reached, unless you are going to have an ammo train follow you around. The only question is if you should decide what that stopping point should be based on a study of the facts or on some wild guess.
Well then, you apparently feel that what you do will be based on some magical number. How do you decide? I would suggest that your way shows less forethought and more arrogance than by looking at the facts. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 1:20:55 PM EDT
[#31]
darm has had also had 20+ years in law enforcement, and has spent a fair amount of an academic career investigating shootings (both LE and non). That is why he gets to discuss facts and reality. Anytime anyone wants to toss resumes and qualifications around, I've been able to hold my own.
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Posted: 2/6/2006 1:21:04 PM EDT
[#32]
darm441...I'm just curious what statistical facts you use to justify carrying a gun in the first place. All the information I've seen indicates that your chances of needing it are slim to none.
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Posted: 2/6/2006 1:21:14 PM EDT
[#33]
Darm441, since it appears that you are basing things upon statistics, do you want to be the 1 out of the 99 out of 100 gunfights do not require a reload? It's just common sense that if you carry a firearm, you should at least carry one reload. I've never needed my health insurance, nor my life insurance, and chances are, I won't for a long time, but I still pay the premiums.
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Posted: 2/6/2006 1:23:20 PM EDT
[#34]
I could be mistaken here, but it seems like most of the berating has been directed at those who have suggested carrying an extra mag won't make much difference. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 1:27:08 PM EDT
[#35]
I suspect it won't be the first time nor the last.
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Posted: 2/6/2006 1:32:24 PM EDT
[#36]
It each users life , so they have to decide how much ammo they need or may need. I tend to carrry spare mags, guns depending on where I am going and possible threat level in that area.
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Posted: 2/6/2006 1:48:01 PM EDT
[#37]
I have never worn a badge but I've spent much of my life in the woods hunting and carrying more ammo than you think you'll need has always turned out to be a good thing and the big difference in some cases.
I carry an extra mag when I CCW. That's because I plan on only needing one magazine and have learned to always to have a little more than what you plan on needing. That's a lesson to heed anywhere in life. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 1:54:44 PM EDT
[#38]
I feel like a paranoid freak for what I am about to admit to. I currently carry a G17 with 1 17rd mag in and 3 spare 17rd mags located on my person.
I also carry an unloaded M4 in the trunk with 2 30rd mags at the ready. Sometimes I switch the AR for my AK witch I only bring 1 40rd mag for. I believe in the saying a "pistol is something you use to fight your way back to the rifle your dumb but put down". I am unsure if that is exactly how the saying goes but you guys know what I mean. After being robbed at gun point and my life threatened for a $100 dollar Starter jacket I tend to be a little paranoid.
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Posted: 2/6/2006 1:57:50 PM EDT
[#39]
A good dose of paranoia can keep you alive.
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Posted: 2/6/2006 1:59:18 PM EDT
[#40]
Yep. Just as a small dose of complacency can get you killed... |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 2:17:30 PM EDT
[#41]
Even if the numbers were 9999 out of 10,000, I'll still err on the side of caution simply because you can't pick and choose which of the two cases you'll end up with, and I have extraordinarily shitty luck. . The accurate assessment of real data goes like this..."Even Darm the 20+ year LE veteran concurs that there is a chance a second mag could save my life. It costs me nothing to carry it, so it would be foolish not to." I think that's what people have been saying all along.
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Posted: 2/6/2006 3:33:39 PM EDT
[#42]
Either take a 100% chance you will have a spare mag if you need one, or take a +/-99% chance that you won't need one.
Also, simply put, carrying a spare mag doubles the number of rounds of ammo you're carrying. A two-fold increase of what you're carrying is a big jump for the little extra hassle of toting a mag. Once you get past one spare mag, then the benefit to hassle ratio diminishes. Because adding a third mag only increases your ammo count by 1/3 and a fourth mag only adds a 1/4 more ammo, etc. But that first spare mag doubles your round count, which puts you pretty far ahead in number of rounds than not having a spare mag. Strictly on a how many times your gun can go pow basis. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 6:00:29 PM EDT
[#43]
I always carry a Para P-12 SS limited w/ 2 extra 16 round magazines. That's a total 45/ 45s. I thank God every day that I don't need them and I'll thank Him even more the day I do.
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Posted: 2/6/2006 6:18:53 PM EDT
[#44]
Guys, here's an idea: we all make our own beds and sleep in them. If you don't want to bring extra ammo, so be it. Obviously if you do need more - you don't get any. And that's the decision you made. If you do want to carry more ammo, then there you go. I just don't see any more reason to get all excited about it any more than over a caliber war. And on that note: 357SIG is better than .45acp...
j/k
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Posted: 2/6/2006 8:09:31 PM EDT
[#45]
Hmm. I'm not going to get involved in everyone else's debate about right or wrong to carry an extra.
If you're comfortable with it, I think that 2 mags of 8 is just fine. I personally carry 7+1 and a spare 8 rnd mag in 9mm. I'm comfortable with it. I may be getting a gun that will hold more soon. Right now, this is what I carry and I feel that it's adequate. |
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Posted: 2/6/2006 9:22:22 PM EDT
[#46]
1911,
I usually carry an 8 rounder in the gun + 1 in tube, and a 10 rounder spare. |
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Posted: 2/7/2006 3:18:38 AM EDT
[#47]
No magical numbers form the basis for how I decide how much ammo I carry. The only thing restricting me is comfort and concealability. I carry as much ammo as I can and still maintain a comfort level that will not cause me to leave everything at home. Within that, I carry as much ammo as I can reasonably conceal as well as I conceal my weapon. No arrogance, plenty of forethought, and no
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Posted: 2/7/2006 6:35:41 AM EDT
[#48]
Murphy has a way of bitting you in the ass! Don't give him an opening around this case so I carry one reload and backup gun at a minimum... Two is one and one is none. This applys to mags also!
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Posted: 2/7/2006 8:26:55 AM EDT
[#49]
No disagreement on my part. My primary point, which seems to get so many people really upset, is that each of us will make decisions based on what we think is important. The best way to make those decisions is to understand what the facts are and do a good risk/benefit analysis. Strange thta so many will argue against that idea. |
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Posted: 2/7/2006 8:33:10 AM EDT
[#50]
Again, it is a matter of cost versus benefit. The lifetime chances of using a gun for defensive purposes are actually fairly good, something in the neighborhood of 1 in 200. Starting from that point, the chances of needing a spare magazine are more like 1 in 2,000,000. Now that is very simplified and somewhat misleading (as are most numbers without more information) but it's a nice starting point. I carry a gun far more because I can than because I need to, and the relative cost is fairly negligible. If I thought I needed to carry a gun I'd rethink my lifestyle a bit. |
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