No, Riordan cannot beat Davis. It's just that the liberal CA media wants you to believe this in order for him to win the Republican primary. You have to consider two separate polling data. One is the obvious which is "who would you vote for". The other is not obvious which is "if Riordan is running, would you go to the polls and vote". The second poll shows that Riordan cannot bring out enough Republican voters to the polls and vote (wonder why?... liberal Davis versus liberal Riordan). This is Riordan's biggest problem... too many Republican's will stay home and not vote if it comes down to Davis versus Riordan. Thus, the Davis camp prefers Riordan.
I agree with your statements about the NRA and the CRPA dropping the ball on this one. Bush did too! I'm beginning to wonder about Bush's beliefs in the 2nd amendment. If it wasn't for Ashcroft, this administration could be pathetic, IMO.
Simon will most likely get my vote unless some serious revelations come out.