Posted: 1/26/2010 3:43:41 PM EDT
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So in the game of Craps, you have the field. The field consists of the number 2,3,4,9,10,11,12. 2 pays double, 12 pays triple. Your odds of hitting a field number on any roll is 44.44444~%. (16 divided by 36) Once you add in the extra payout from the 2 and 12, my math shows the odds jump up to 52.7%. ((16+3)/36) I know no gambling game is going to offer odds over 50% so what am I doing wrong here.
Here are the odds of each # 2=2.7% 3=5.5% 4=8.3% 5=11.1% 6=13.8% 7=16.6% 8=13.8% 9=11.1% 10=8.3% 11=5.5% 12=2.7% |
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Your odds of hitting a field number as described in your post are:
2.7 + 5.5 + 8.3 + 8.3 + 5.5 + 2.7 = 33% 'OR' in probabilities means you add each probablility together (i.e. 2 OR 3 OR 4 OR 10 OR 11 OR 12) payout multiplier has absolutely nothing to do with the probablity of hitting a field number. Your odds of hitting a 4 don't change just because the house may choose to pay you even money or 2x or 100x - you still have exactly the same probability of hitting a 4 (in this case 8.3%) Think about Powerball or similar lottery - your chances of hitting the winning number dont increase or decrease based on the monetary award of the drawing. If the drawing is for $7,000,000 or $70,000,000 - you still have exactly the same odds of guessing the winning combination. |
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Your odds of hitting a field number as described in your post are: 2.7 + 5.5 + 8.3 + 8.3 + 5.5 + 2.7 = 33% 'OR' in probabilities means you add each probablility together (i.e. 2 OR 3 OR 4 OR 10 OR 11 OR 12) payout multiplier has absolutely nothing to do with the probablity of hitting a field number. Your odds of hitting a 4 don't change just because the house may choose to pay you even money or 2x or 100x - you still have exactly the same probability of hitting a 4 (in this case 8.3%) Think about Powerball or similar lottery - your chances of hitting the winning number dont increase or decrease based on the monetary award of the drawing. If the drawing is for $7,000,000 or $70,000,000 - you still have exactly the same odds of guessing the winning combination. You still have to add in the odds when figuring this out. If I said lets bet 5 dollars that on a roll of the dice, the number 6 comes up. If it does, I will pay you 7 times your bet. You would be stupid to not take that bet. Hitting the 2 or 12 is slim but the double and tripple payout does effect you in the long run. Sure the chances of playing the lotto are slim. But for that one person who wins, it is one hell of a good ROI. I also forgot to add 9 to the numbers on the field. Adding in 9 makes it 44.4~% of hitting a winning number. But you have to add in the double and triple payouts from the 2 and 12. |
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The field doesn't include 7 except on the come out, you lose on the 7 after the point has been established. Have you ever played craps? Everythign you just said is wrong. You always loose in the field when 7 is rolled. The point has nothing to do with the field. |
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You are going about your odds the wrong way.
Object of the Game The object of the game is to bet with or against the shooter, the player rolling the dice. Players usually bet with the player. Remember, craps is one big party! If you want the other players to welcome you, bet with the shooter: * If the shooter to rolls a 7 or 11 on the first roll, the come out roll, you win. * If the shooter rolls a 2, 3 or 12 (known as craps) on the come out roll, you lose. * If the come out roll produces anything else-a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10, the number becomes the point number. If the shooter rolls the point number before rolling a 7, you win. If he or she rolls a 7 before rolling the point number, you lose. |
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You are going about your odds the wrong way. Object of the Game The object of the game is to bet with or against the shooter, the player rolling the dice. Players usually bet with the player. Remember, craps is one big party! If you want the other players to welcome you, bet with the shooter: * If the shooter to rolls a 7 or 11 on the first roll, the come out roll, you win. * If the shooter rolls a 2, 3 or 12 (known as craps) on the come out roll, you lose. * If the come out roll produces anything else-a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10, the number becomes the point number. If the shooter rolls the point number before rolling a 7, you win. If he or she rolls a 7 before rolling the point number, you lose. Did you even read my question? Im asking about playing the field and the odds once the double and triple payout are added in. I am by no means a novice to the game. |
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Here is another way to look at it. There are 16 winning number combinations and 20 losing possibilities per roll. With the 2 paying double, and the 12 paying triple, you can only win 19 units while the house can win 20 in a pure 36 roll analysis. This means you are giving the house a 2.77% advantage, or another way is losing 1/36th on average every roll you bet. You can test this with a piece of paper & pencil. 1+1=2, $10 1+2=3, $5 1+3=4, $5 1+4=5, $0 1+5=6, $0 1+6=7, $0 2+1=3, $5 etc. up to 6+6=12, $15 You will have "Won" $95, the house will have kept $100 of your money. |
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Here is another way to look at it. There are 16 winning number combinations and 20 losing possibilities per roll. With the 2 paying double, and the 12 paying triple, you can only win 19 units while the house can win 20 in a pure 36 roll analysis. This means you are giving the house a 2.77% advantage, or another way is losing 1/36th on average every roll you bet. I was working on it from this angle. That makes some sence. |
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Quoted: You are going about your odds the wrong way. Object of the Game The object of the game is to bet with or against the shooter, the player rolling the dice. Players usually bet with the player. Remember, craps is one big party! If you want the other players to welcome you, bet with the shooter: * If the shooter to rolls a 7 or 11 on the first roll, the come out roll, you win. * If the shooter rolls a 2, 3 or 12 (known as craps) on the come out roll, you lose. * If the come out roll produces anything else-a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10, the number becomes the point number. If the shooter rolls the point number before rolling a 7, you win. If he or she rolls a 7 before rolling the point number, you lose. You might add that this betting strategy is based only on the Pass Line bets. There are bets to make every roll a winner or a loser. As I'm sure you know for instance, when there is a point, a 7 is still craps, but a come bet is a winner. |
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If you aren't a novice to the game you should already have a good craps book that explains how it all works with the vig on each number and all the different bets you can make. Good Luck at the tables  +1 IIRC field offers some of the worst odds to payout on the table. Also, many casinos only offer 2x payout on 12, not 3x. |
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Quoted: Quoted: If you aren't a novice to the game you should already have a good craps book that explains how it all works with the vig on each number and all the different bets you can make. Good Luck at the tables +1 IIRC field offers some of the worst odds to payout on the table. Also, many casinos only offer 2x payout on 12, not 3x. Actually, the 2.77% house edge is better than most other games in casinos. It does require the 3X payout on either the 2 or 12. Roulette for instance, with a "0,00" layout has a single number house advantage of 5.26%, or twice as bad as the field bets we've discussed. In comparison, many people play the "Big 6/8" and the house advantage on these bets is 9.09%. The "Hard Way" bets in the center of the table are very popular and vary between 9% and 11% house edge if you're looking for some really bad bets. |
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Quoted: I typically play the Dont Come line depending on how bad each roller is. So what game offers true 50% odds if played correctly and do not count cards. (Hint, its a card game) Answer: NONE. There is no card or other game in Las Vegas that has no house advantage. They are not interested in giving you a fair chance to take their money. Craps comes the closest by offering "True Odds" on Place and Pass Line (Or Don't Pass) odds bets. There is no house advantage on these bets. Thus the name "True Odds". |
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Quoted: I typically play the Dont Come line depending on how bad each roller is. So what game offers true 50% odds if played correctly and do not count cards. (Hint, its a card game) Well shiver me timbers! I had no idea there were "good rollers" and "bad rollers." All this time I thought there was only probability... Do you have any advice for me on how to spot these "good" and "bad" rollers? |
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I typically play the Dont Come line depending on how bad each roller is. So what game offers true 50% odds if played correctly and do not count cards. (Hint, its a card game) Well shiver me timbers! I had no idea there were "good rollers" and "bad rollers." All this time I thought there was only probability... Do you have any advice for me on how to spot these "good" and "bad" rollers? It's in the wrist. 
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If you aren't a novice to the game you should already have a good craps book that explains how it all works with the vig on each number and all the different bets you can make. Good Luck at the tables +1 IIRC field offers some of the worst odds to payout on the table. Also, many casinos only offer 2x payout on 12, not 3x. Staying out of the field and the middle of the table, will lengthen your life expectancy at the table. All those sucker bets are for amateurs and fools. If you remember that craps is a simple game, (7 you win, 7 you lose) and stick with a simple strategy, you are more likely to win, if you can walk away at the right time. As for me, I play the dark side and one or two DC numbers. Once I get past the comeout, I have the best of it. If a shooter gets hot, I simply watch until they change shooters. |
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Here is another way to look at it. There are 16 winning number combinations and 20 losing possibilities per roll. With the 2 paying double, and the 12 paying triple, you can only win 19 units while the house can win 20 in a pure 36 roll analysis. This means you are giving the house a 2.77% advantage, or another way is losing 1/36th on average every roll you bet. You can test this with a piece of paper & pencil. 1+1=2, $10 1+2=3, $5 1+3=4, $5 1+4=5, $0 1+5=6, $0 1+6=7, $0 2+1=3, $5 etc. up to 6+6=12, $15 You will have "Won" $95, the house will have kept $100 of your money. We have winner right there. This is the correct answer. The field bet is a fickle mistress. 
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If you aren't a novice to the game you should already have a good craps book that explains how it all works with the vig on each number and all the different bets you can make. Good Luck at the tables +1 IIRC field offers some of the worst odds to payout on the table. Also, many casinos only offer 2x payout on 12, not 3x. Nay, the field bet is certainly not as good as the Pass/Don't Pass and Odds bets but when the Casino offers 2x/3x on 2 and 12 the house advantage is actually rather small. When I looked up the odds, the field was like the 6th best bet after: 1) Pass/Don't Pass Odds 2) Don't Pass 3) Pass 4) Place 6 and 8 5) Lay 4 and 10 If they don't pay 3x on 12 then yes it moves down several spots in rank but still ahead of SOME of the place bets and all of the center bets. I don't play the field much though anymore. I stick with the highest probability bets only for the most part if i'm going to play. |
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I typically play the Dont Come line depending on how bad each roller is. So what game offers true 50% odds if played correctly and do not count cards. (Hint, its a card game) Answer: NONE. There is no card or other game in Las Vegas that has no house advantage. They are not interested in giving you a fair chance to take their money. Craps comes the closest by offering "True Odds" on Place and Pass Line (Or Don't Pass) odds bets. There is no house advantage on these bets. Thus the name "True Odds". No. The one card game that offers 50% odds if played correctly is mini-baccarat. IF you dont know how to play its pretty simple to learn. There are two hands. Let call them hand 1 and hand 2. One is going to win. You bet on which hand you think will win. On pushes you dont loose any money. So its 50/50 odds. Of course to give the casino an edge, they take 5% of your winnings if you win while betting on hand 2. But, like I said, if you play correctly, or only bet on hand 1, you will have true 50/50 odds. Its a very popular game with asians and its usually located next to Pai Gow Poker. |
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I typically play the Dont Come line depending on how bad each roller is. So what game offers true 50% odds if played correctly and do not count cards. (Hint, its a card game) Well shiver me timbers! I had no idea there were "good rollers" and "bad rollers." All this time I thought there was only probability... Do you have any advice for me on how to spot these "good" and "bad" rollers? It's in the wrist.
Laugh all you want. Im a bad roller. and rarely make my point. I bet against myself all the time while rolling. |
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Here is all you need to know about betting the field:
You can make–––––––––– The house can make 2 - 1 way––––––––––- –– 5 - 4 ways 3 - 2 ways–––––––––––– 6 - 5 ways 4 - 3 ways–––––––––––– 7 - 6 ways 9 - 4 ways–––––––––––– 8 - 5 ways 10 - 3 ways 11 - 2 ways 12 - 1 way Add'em up and you will find there are 16 possible ways for the seven field numbers to be made. There are 20 ways for the house numbers to be made. Out of every 36 rolls, the house has a four roll edge. Forget about the double and triple payouts. They are an inducement for suckers. |
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Here is all you need to know about betting the field: You can make–––––––––– The house can make 2 - 1 way––––––––––- –– 5 - 4 ways 3 - 2 ways–––––––––––– 6 - 5 ways 4 - 3 ways–––––––––––– 7 - 6 ways 9 - 4 ways–––––––––––– 8 - 5 ways 10 - 3 ways 11 - 2 ways 12 - 1 way Add'em up and you will find there are 16 possible ways for the seven field numbers to be made. There are 20 ways for the house numbers to be made. Out of every 36 rolls, the house has a four roll edge. Forget about the double and triple payouts. They are an inducement for suckers. You have to add in odds. You always add in odds. But the answer has already been given above. |
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Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: I typically play the Dont Come line depending on how bad each roller is. So what game offers true 50% odds if played correctly and do not count cards. (Hint, its a card game) Answer: NONE. There is no card or other game in Las Vegas that has no house advantage. They are not interested in giving you a fair chance to take their money. Craps comes the closest by offering "True Odds" on Place and Pass Line (Or Don't Pass) odds bets. There is no house advantage on these bets. Thus the name "True Odds". No. The one card game that offers 50% odds if played correctly is mini-baccarat. IF you dont know how to play its pretty simple to learn. There are two hands. Let call them hand 1 and hand 2. One is going to win. You bet on which hand you think will win. On pushes you dont loose any money. So its 50/50 odds. Of course to give the casino an edge, they take 5% of your winnings if you win while betting on hand 2. But, like I said, if you play correctly, or only bet on hand 1, you will have true 50/50 odds. Its a very popular game with asians and its usually located next to Pai Gow Poker. This logic is the reason there are so many casinos in Las Vegas. Quote from Wikipedia: "Odds" "Despite its simplicity (or perhaps because of it), the punto banco version of baccarat offers some of the lowest house advantage available in a casino. The player bet has a house advantage of 1.24%, and the banker bet (despite the 5% commission) has an advantage of 1.06%. The tie bet has a much higher house advantage of 14.44%, based on six decks in play.[url=#cite_note-0][1][/url] Because of its attraction for wealthy players, a casino may win or lose millions of dollars a night on the game, and the house's fortunes may even affect the bottom line of a corporation's quarterly profit and loss. Notations of the effects of major baccarat wins and losses are frequently found in the quarterly reports of publicly-traded gaming companies. Mini-baccarat is essentially the same game, but played at a smaller table very similar to a blackjack table. A single dealer handles the entire game, including dealing the cards. The pace is usually much faster than the "big baccarat" version. Betting minimums and maximums are usually lower. In casinos outside of Las Vegas and Atlantic City, this is frequently the only version of baccarat that is offered." The lowest common overall house odds in casinos are playing Craps with either a Pass Line or Don't Pass Line bet, then taking at least double odds. The house advantage is about 0.6%. In a perfect world, you would only lose $ .60 for every $100 you bet this way. For the purists out there, I am aware that the Don't Pass with odds is slightly better than the Pass with odds. You will be pretty unpopular when you start betting against every other player at the table though, and it is just fractions of a per cent better. |