Posted: 5/6/2008 9:24:27 AM EDT
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My understanding is that if the Congrescritters were to allow drilling for oil in the ANWR it would take something like 7 years before the wells were drilled and producing. So if Congress had allowed drilling when it first came up under Bush, we would be just about there now. How much of a difference would ANWR oil make in the overall price of both crude and refined gas/diesel? Or would it really make little or no difference at all? -K |
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actually i think ANWR drilling was authorized under clinton in 1995 but he vetoed it en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_Refuge_drilling_controversy those for say their is significant oil those against says its neglible |
| It's my understanding that the native caribou herds use that oil to heat their homes and for cooking. Taking that oil would cause massive starvation for the caribou, and probably some penguins too. Without the caribou, the Eskimos would starve. With no more Eskimos, we would have no one left to hunt whales. With no more whales, we'd run out of whale oil for our lamps and power generation. Which leads us to the entire world running out of power, and the end of the internet. And thus, the end of ARFcom. See? It's the circle of life. |
No difference. Maybe some shock relief for a couple weeks, but six months down the road? Nada. |
 I blame the penguins for leaving the Southern Hemisphere -- where they used to only be found.
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Actually Clinton put the kibbosh on it 14 years ago, and by ANY estimate we would be producing tons now. The real timeframe would be closer to 4 years or so, and would act to immediately help depress rampant speculation. |
| I don't think drilling ANWR will have much change in oil prices if the oil is put on open market because the OPEC will oppose it by cutting production. The only way to have an impact domestically is to force the oil produced to be sold for domestic use (with modest profit) and requiring the refinery to buy US produce crude first. |
Disagree. Speculation is hot because there is an perceived shortage, and speculators perceive that this will continue. Drilling ANWR will give them something to reconsider. Drilling off the coasts will do even better. |
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I believe the numbers I have seen was that peak production from ANWR would be about 1 million barrels per day. World production is about 85 million barrels per day. My guess is, if ANWR was currently at peak production, prices would be about 5% below what they are now, though this is just a guess. I am not an economist, but my understanding is that oil is a commodity, with prices determined by market forces (supply and demand). To put this in perspective, Japan imports about 4 million barrels per day. If they were willing to pay $100/barrel, why would a US producer sell the same oil for $50/barrel (as was suggested in a previous post) domestically. It may be a bit cheaper to deliver to the US, but I am not sure if by much. |
Depends on the contract length. |
| If the .fed opened up ANWR, it wouldn't be for the oil. It would send a message to OPEC and other oil exporters that we were serious about increasing supply, and might make them reconsider some of their policies. ANWR is more valuable as a geopolitical tool than as an oil source. The oil in ANWR is 1. a decade away from market and 2. a drop in the bucket relative to global supply/demand. |
BULLSHIT. Learn some economics, focus on marginal cost. TXL |
Even the knowledge that future supply will be alleviated would drive down the current futures price. Maybe not entirely, but support for current prices will be undercut. |
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What is with the people who say it wont have much effect, etc etc. How do you know? Have you ever seen a basic supply and demand curve? If you drill ANWR and raise our output by just 1% it will be awesome! In 2004 the US produced 20 million barrels a day or over 700 million gallons. Have you ever thought that when the world goes to hell in a handbasket we might be better off if we already have a spigot tapped up there to a least help us out a little bit? The same liberal brainwashing that makes you think Republicans spend all of your tax dollars has caused you to believe that FIRST, the caribou would die. When this was disproved it was said that it will take 7 years to do it so we shouldn't do it. Now everyone is asking WTF we were waiting for so now they say "it wont have much effect". Bullshit it won't have much effect, the payout of spending that money even if it yields the LEAST amount predicted (not from a liberal source) will be HUGE!! The ROI if it yields the maximum will be INSANE!!! Drill it! When Isreal nukes Iran and turns it into a glass plate we are going to be 7 years behind the curve. |
Holy crap!!!!  I didn't know it was THAT bad! Thanks for spelling it out for me. And on a side note I think it's nice we named a National Park after an Egyptian president. 
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ninja, please. It would make a difference. What happens to the price of oil in OPEC releases 500,000 BOPD? Same thing. And opening it up won't do a fucking thing to any wildlife up there except give them a warm place of refuge. |