[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Why math defeats Ron Paul (Page 1 of 2)
Posted: 1/28/2008 5:30:23 AM EDT
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CAUTION: Reality check enclosed! It takes 1,191 delegates to receive the Republican nomination. Ron Paul, to date, as accumulated 6 delegates and is currently in fourth place behind Romney at 73, McCain 38, and Huckabee with 29. Looks like he's still viable, right? Not so fast. On Super Tuesday, Feb 5, there are about 1,000 Republican delegates at stake -- that's 40 percent of the total awarded during the primary/caucus process. More importantly, many of those states (New York, New Jersey among them) are WINNER TAKE ALL. Whoever wins the most votes in New York, for example, receives 101 delegates. New Jersey is worth 52, Missouri is 58. Arizona has 53 delegates. California, which assigns delegates winner-take-all by district, has a whopping 173 delegates. Georgia's 72 delegates are also assigned winner-take-all by district. Ron Paul has to COME IN FIRST in an entire state or district to earn ANY delegates in these winner-take-all scenarios. In other words, he has to beat Romney, McCain, Rudy and Huckabee to even register. Do any of you Ron Paul supporters seriously think that Ron Paul is going to do that? Really? Wake up people! After Super Tuesday, Ron Paul will be lucky to have 50 delegates. That's a long way from the 1,191 delegates to take the nomination. The Republicans probably won't have their nominee on February 6, but one thing is quite certain. Ron Paul is going to be nothing more than an "also ran." Now do you see why people have been saying he doesn't have a chance? If not, please show us a scenario — with state predictions and delegate counts — that takes Ron Paul to 1,191. |
he'd have a better chance if people like you voted for him in the primaries instead of going with the "uh well I'm going with whoever the winner is or whoever has the best chance...." etc etc which is foolhardy at best since the primaries are designed to vote for who you want rather than the lesser of two evils but oh well. Neocons are digging their own graves....... I'd say you have about five to eight years before this country completely tanks. then who are you going to blame? |
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Thankfully your math will have no bearing the winner of the '08 Presidential election. Who gives a shit who wins the Republican presidential nomination, as only a moron would have ever thought that Ron Pau could accomplish this.....  (especially considering the manner in which he has been treated by the national media) All that is necessary for Ron Paul to become the next president of these United States is for him to receive more votes than any other presidential candidates once election time rolls around. YMMV, but I'm planning on waiting for that time to roll around and then voting my choice; suggest others do the same and simply STFU about politics until then....  mike |
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Where's Thompson? Ohhh... he's asleep 
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If electability has nothing to do with it, then we should all write in some author, college professor or philosopher who expresses Libertarian views even better than Ron Paul. |
So, are you voting for Hillary? If not, why? |
Are you seriously suggesting that Ron Paul can win as an independent candidate in a three-way race? I hate to break it to you, but if he was that popular or his views had that much traction he'd have more than six delegates now. Do you even understand what it would require to get Ron Paul on the ballot in enough states to win a general election? If anyone needs an indication of the state of civics education in this country, they need only to look to Ron Paul supporters. |
Ron Paul has more than 6. I think it is double that number since Louisiana Caucus. However, LAGOP has not revealed what those numbers are yet. Louisiana had 44 delegates for grab. Romney got only "handful" according to LAGOP. Discussion here. www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=137&t=665553 |
The challenge is out there: " . . . show us a scenario — with state predictions and delegate counts — that takes Ron Paul to 1,191." |
Hardly. My logic against Ron Paul is that he's crazier than a shithouse rat - even if his heart is in the right place on a number of issues. Anyone who would reduce our Army down to just 2 divisions can lick my sweaty ass. Fuck him and the donkey he rode in on. Seriously - that alone is enough for me to make my decision. -K |
Ron Paul stated during the last debate when directly questioned about running as a 3rd party candidate, that he is a Republican first and foremost and will NOT run as a 3rd party candidate. ETA: If RP wanted to be taken at least a little bit seriously by the public, he might want to stop whining like a snotty nosed brat who's older brothers won't let him play with them. Also, try getting a suit that fits. Every time I see him he looks like he is wearing an off the rack suit from K Mart. Ill fitting and way too big. |
I'd rather have bat shit crazy Ron Paul than a Massachusetts gun grabber or one of the Keating five as out next president. |
+1 No, Ron Paul isn't perfect. He's far from perfect, but we aren't electing someone to save us from sin, we're voting for someone to save us from taxes, debt, tyranny, etc. |
You would do far more good getting term limits for Congress and popular vote for things such as tax increases. |
Fine. Now show us a scenario — with state predictions and delegate counts — that takes Ron Paul to 1,191. If you can't do that it's time to figure out who you can support who stands a chance of being nominated and winning the election. |
Great. Now show us a scenario — with state predictions and delegate counts — that takes Ron Paul to 1,191. |
I have compromised and compromised, only to get shit on by my own party. They obviously don't want my vote, so why give them the satisfaction? |
Taxes, debt, etc all start in the House and come from there, the President cannot sign anything that raises either, or lowers them, that does not come from the House first. By far the greatest power in fiscal matters lies in the House of Represenatives, not the White House. If you want Paul to make these changes, the proper course of action is to elect him to the House where he can put forth well written, passable legislation to do so, than work to influence his peers there to get it passed. You never get anything full bore, it has to be done bit by bit by bit..... Ohhh, wait. We tried that. Ron has proven himself to be an utter failure with ZERO bills he authored being passed in decades in the House. The most logical thing to do, under these circumstances is to promote him to a position that insteda has most of its power in the areas of military and foreign affairs and less in the fiscal realm. 
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Irrelevant right now. The most anyone has is 59 at the moment. Giuliani has 1. 1 delegate, and people still talk about him. |
How much work have you done within the party on the state and local level to influence them over to your point of view? |
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I don't think he's going to get the nomination but I'd rather give my vote in the primaries to someone who believes in small government and personal liberties. Reality check: When you guys supported Fred Thompson he did not have a chance at winning either. Yet you gave him your money and he thanked you by dropping out of the race. So don't get all holier-than-thou. 
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Regan vetoed practically every budget the Democrat congress sent to him. It'd be nice if we did that again...or we could just keep giving $30 billion to fight AIDS in Africa. |
Game, Set, Match. Well done sir. 
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That makes you a tiny minority. If everyone who bitches about politics on Arfcom dedicated 10 hours week volunteering for the House candidate of their choice the impact would be felt by the GOP nationally in a very good way. |
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Yawn. Slow Monday? |
Your primary on Feb 12 is a winner-take-all vote. THere are 63 delegates at stake. If you're going to vote for Paul you might as well stay at home. If you really feel strongly about stopping McCain, you should probably go vote for Romney. |
Is that the best you got? Fred had a chance, but wasted it. His supporters had no control over that. At least Fred bowed out when the fat lady started to sing. Paul it seems is deaf to her voice, dumb to think he has a chance, and blind in the fact that he himself can't see the writing on the wall. If everything RP espouses is so urgent now, where was he over the past 20 some years in the House? Why has he not done anything to change the status quo then? Oh, I see. It is urgent now because he is running for POTUS and there are campaign contributions to be considered.
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Seriously, some of you all are really pathetic. Why are so many of you so spiteful and nasty toward each other. We are all on the same side. We are not going to accomplish anything if one side calls the other "a bunch of losers" or the other side calling the other fruitcakes. Grow up 
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This whole thread and all threads like it are pathetic. We get that people are upset that Fred dropped out without even getting to Super Tuesday and even crazy Paul beat him in a few primaries. If those folks want to go give their vote to Romney I don't care. Starting threads every day trying to tell people who to vote for is a waste of their time. |
