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AR15.COM
6/1/2007 6:26:11 AM EDT
From Threatswatch


In a letter reportedly intercepted by a Middle Eastern intelligence service, al-Qaeda’s Ayman al-Zawahiri urged al-Qaeda in Iraq’s commander to export jihad from among his terrorist cadres in Iraq. Sent “in the past few weeks,” the letter urged Abu Ayyub al-Masri (Abu Hamza al-Muhajer) to support al-Qaeda’s emerging bases of terror in Lebanon, Syria and the Palestinian Territories.

A New York Times report highlights the path to jihad taken by Muhammad al-Darsi, released from a Libyan prison last year. Seeking to join the jihad in Iraq, his al-Qaeda recruiter diverted his endeavors to instead take part in an attack on Amman, Jordan. With the bomb attack on tourists at Queen Alia Airport in Amman thwarted and al-Darsi captured, his confession detailed his trek through Istanbul, Turkey, to Damascus, Syria, where he was shuffled through various al-Qaeda safe houses in preparation for his planned attack in Jordan. “The bomb maker, Saad Fakhri al-Naimi, 40, arrived on a commercial flight from Baghdad to prepare a suicide duffel bag for Mr. Darsi, using eight pounds of plastic explosives hidden in a child’s toy.”

In Lebanon, al-Qaeda affiliated terrorist group Fatah al-Islam remains under siege by the Lebanese Army and internal security forces. In fact, London’s Arabic language al-Hayah reported that Fatah al-Islam “believed that it was very close to announcing its emirate and that the security and political conditions were ripe [to do so] based on its assessment that the acute division in Lebanon makes the authorities unable to make a decision that provides a political cover for the army and the security forces to prevent it [Fatah al-Islam] from carrying out its plan to control Tripoli.” Fatah al-Islam, however, failed to foresee the level to which the Lebanese authorities would forcefully react to the al-Qaeda threat.

In the Gaza Strip, a terrorist group called Jaish al-Islam kidnapped a BBC reporter. While the BBC describes the group as “Influenced by, but not affiliated with al-Qaeda,” their key demand for the release of the BBC’s Alan Johnston is the release of al-Qaeda terrorist Abu Qatada. Many view Jaish al-Islam as al-Qaeda’s foothold in Gaza, drawing recruits unsatisfied with Hamas and the Popular Resistance Committees.

There are certainly al-Qaeda endeavors throughout the region that would benefit from the export of seasoned and trained terrorists from the Iraqi theater of al-Qaeda’s operations. With Zawahiri calling for the overthrow of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s regime and Fatah al-Islam’s thwarted visions of an ‘emirate’ in Lebanon, al-Qaeda’s regional endeavors are definitely ambitious and in need of an influx of human resources.

Posted on May 29, 2007 12:05 AM


I highlighted the last part in red because it gives me a little hope that perhaps... Just maybe... al Qaeda is shooting itself in the foot with some of their ambitions. Syria is a major terrorist supporter! Why would Zawahiri really want to overthrow Assad...? I fully realize Z. would want any regime not as extreme as his own, to be overthrown and replaced with hardliners like him, but isn't it counter to Assad's - and Iran's - desires to unite as many Islamic regimes as possible against the US and Israel...?

Hm. Either way... Maybe it's a slight ray of hope that they'll bomb themselves into oblivion before they export too many "active" extremists to the US or friendly nations...
6/1/2007 7:07:40 AM EDT
[#1]
Remember Mac, the only thing these "extream" groups want is to have thier agendas pushed.  If someone does not want to push their agenda, they want to replace them.  Syria probably has plans that Z does not like and therefor wants to replace them.  I think this would be a good thing if they attacked Syria.  The more these "extream" groups kill each other the better it is.
6/1/2007 7:16:36 AM EDT
[#2]

Quoted:
Remember Mac, the only thing these "extream" groups want is to have thier agendas pushed.  If someone does not want to push their agenda, they want to replace them.  Syria probably has plans that Z does not like and therefor wants to replace them.  I think this would be a good thing if they attacked Syria.  The more these "extream" groups kill each other the better it is.


I'm thinking the same thing. The more they argue theological extremist semantics amongst each other, the better...

If one of the nations or groups can get the rest of the groups thinking similar ("The enemy of my enemy is my friend" type thing) we are in for some even more Happy Fun Times™ though.
6/1/2007 7:18:34 AM EDT
[#3]
Religious fanatics like AQ have always been opposed to secular dictators, even when the dictators sometimes support them or make common cause for some reason or another.

It's complicated enough to make your head spin.
6/1/2007 7:23:07 AM EDT
[#4]
Years ago Syria had a problem with muslim extremists.  They were perceived as a threat to the security of the Syrian families that hold the power reins, so the Army was ordered to take care of the problem.

They dropped a proverbial ton of hammers on the problem.  

Syria is obviously no friend of the US- but they will act "rationally" in the case of self-preservation.

I would not be surprised if Al Qaeda's take on Syria is partly based on what Syria did with it's homegrown extremist problem in the past AND it appears Syria has on several cases shared information about Al Qaeda with the west in the past.

Furthermore, Syria is also involved in destabilizing Iraq and they don't like competition.

What little I have read about the middle east has left me with the impression that "Arab unity" is as big of a joke now as it has ever been.

6/1/2007 7:27:01 AM EDT
[#5]
I'm sure Assad's pleased as punch!  Funny that the terrorists are after a terrorist.

Wow....continuing to eat their own--GOOD.

HH
6/1/2007 8:41:23 AM EDT
[#6]
Well, good for now, at least. If they pursue this far enough, eventually, one hardline ruler will emerge who will have the entire Muslim world at his fingertips, nukes and all. Israel will face a million man army. If they can take out Israel, they will go after Europe and eventually the US.
6/1/2007 8:44:30 AM EDT
[#7]

Quoted:
Well, good for now, at least. If they pursue this far enough, eventually, one hardline ruler will emerge who will have the entire Muslim world at his fingertips, nukes and all. Israel will face a million man army. If they can take out Israel, they will go after Europe and eventually the US.


Fantasy.
6/1/2007 8:45:06 AM EDT
[#8]

Quoted:
Remember Mac, the only thing these "extream" groups want is to have thier agendas pushed.  If someone does not want to push their agenda, they want to replace them.  Syria probably has plans that Z does not like and therefor wants to replace them.  I think this would be a good thing if they attacked Syria.  The more these "extream" groups kill each other the better it is.


Reality.
We need to exploit this weakness, why we aren't, I don't know.
6/1/2007 10:20:34 AM EDT
[#9]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Remember Mac, the only thing these "extream" groups want is to have thier agendas pushed.  If someone does not want to push their agenda, they want to replace them.  Syria probably has plans that Z does not like and therefor wants to replace them.  I think this would be a good thing if they attacked Syria.  The more these "extream" groups kill each other the better it is.


Reality.
We need to exploit this weakness, why we aren't, I don't know.


The downside is that while Zawahiri may try to blow parts of Damascus up (and the Syrians, vice versa), they both hate the US... I personally don't know how we would exploit this.

Some people were recently arrested in Tehran for anti-Iranian actions... I don't know if they were affiliated with the US, but we need to go about it a little more tactfully than that if they were...
6/1/2007 10:27:43 AM EDT
[#10]
Assad's going to find out the hard way that harboring radical terrorists is a bad idea.