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Posted: 3/12/2006 8:26:08 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/12/2006 8:26:35 AM EDT by Charging_Handle]

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

VALID 121712Z - 130115Z

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW VIOLENT....LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

SOUTHEASTERN IOWA
WESTERN ILLINOIS
EASTERN KANSAS
MOST OF MISSOURI

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE MID SOUTH AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY

A VOLATILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SITUATION IS UNFOLDING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND JET MAX WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST SURFACE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON. WE
EXPECT THAT SEVERAL AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MISSOURI/EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN IOWA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS
ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT. SUPERCELLS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG DRY LINE EASTERN KS AND EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI
VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RACE
EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY VIOLENT...LONG
TRACK TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

OTHER POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ALONG A DRY LINE EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THESE WILL SPREAD A THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING DAMAGING TORNADOES...ACROSS ARKANSAS
INTO THE MID SOUTH/LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HALES.. 03/12/2006





If you in this area please pay attention to the weather today. This isn't any ordinary severe weather day. This could turn into a big and potentially very destructive outbreak. Even areas farther south and into AR, OK and TX could see some action. Then tonight, this area will move east.

There could be some F4 or F5 level tornadoes today. So again, please take care out there.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 8:29:35 AM EDT
Omaha weather is "Light snow with thunder" I saw some lightning too.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 8:37:16 AM EDT
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 8:37:33 AM EDT
BTW, there have already been at least 3 tornadoes this morning over NE KS and the N half of MO. In Kansas, areas in Johnson and Leavenworth County were hit. Then later, the same storm caused extensive tornado damage in Ray, Carroll and Randolph Counties in MO. That cell is still tornado warned and headed into IL. A new one has developed back over NW MO and will track in the same general direction. And this isn't even the main event yet. It's going to get crazy out there today. Being a SKYWARN spotter and an amateur forecaster myself, this is certainly a very interesting, but also a very scary day. You don't see conditions like this very often.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 8:40:45 AM EDT
Last time they put out a warning like this for us was onMay 4 2003 and they were actually right that time.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 8:45:52 AM EDT
Looks like it will be a great day to do some storm chasing!!


____________________________________
The only hope you have is to accept the fact that you are already dead. And the sooner you accept that, the sooner you will be able to function as a soldier is supposed to function, without mercy, without compassion, without remorse.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 8:46:49 AM EDT

Originally Posted By wump:
Last time they put out a warning like this for us was onMay 4 2003 and they were actually right that time.



Yeah, there could be a very similar situation again today. The biggest difference will be the speed of the storms. Today's storms could move as fast as 50-60 mph at times. There won't be a lot of time to react to warnings compared to when the storms are moving say, 35 mph.

Still, there is no guarantee it will get that bad (hopefully it won't), but the potential is certainly all there for a similar outbreak over many of the same areas hit so hard on May 4, 2003.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 8:51:25 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:

Originally Posted By wump:
Last time they put out a warning like this for us was onMay 4 2003 and they were actually right that time.



Yeah, there could be a very similar situation again today. The biggest difference will be the speed of the storms. Today's storms could move as fast as 50-60 mph at times. There won't be a lot of time to react to warnings compared to when the storms are moving say, 35 mph.

Still, there is no guarantee it will get that bad (hopefully it won't), but the potential is certainly all there for a similar outbreak over many of the same areas hit so hard on May 4, 2003.



On that day a person from NOAA actually called my Ambulance service and told us to be ready cause the shit was going to hit the fan that day, my county was actually spared by we ended up spread out in the three neighboring counties, not a day i would like to relive.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 8:53:50 AM EDT
Although severe thunderstorms with large hail were ongoing at midday in parts of northern Missouri, even more dangerous weather lurks for this afternoon and evening. A new round of powerful storms is expected to explode by mid- or late afternoon with the greatest risk for violent, long-track tornadoes existing across far eastern Kansas, northern and central Missouri, extreme southeastern Iowa and west-central and northwest Illinois.

A slightly reduced but still significant threat for damaging storms covers a much larger area, however. Residents from eastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas eastward through southern Iowa, all of Missouri and Arkansas into Illinois, Indiana, western Kentucky and far western Tennessee should monitor weather developments very closely through tonight. In addition to large, long-lived tornadoes, huge hail and wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are possible.




Stay safe guys!
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 8:54:09 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/12/2006 8:56:22 AM EDT by Penguin_101]
Is nationwide still around here? He may get a chance to regain himself and his junky Nikon.

BTW, is 'junky' a word?

ETA:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
613 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

ILZ058>060-095>100-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-047>052-
059>064-131200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOONE-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-COLE-FRANKLIN-
GASCONADE-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-
MADISON IL-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-
PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-
WARREN-
613 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL
MISSOURI...EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...HIGH RISK OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK TODAY WITH A FEW
STRONG LONG-TRACK TORNADOES POSSIBLE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND A FEW
STRONG LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A
FLASH FLOODING THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 8:59:59 AM EDT
.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 9:18:19 AM EDT
Any word?
Any tornado's yet?


I don't want anyone to get hurt, but as I am an Insurance adjustor, I am hopeing for some serious damage!


Travis
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 9:28:36 AM EDT
Paging txwxgirl.



____________________________________
The only hope you have is to accept the fact that you are already dead. And the sooner you accept that, the sooner you will be able to function as a soldier is supposed to function, without mercy, without compassion, without remorse.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 9:30:53 AM EDT
right on the wesern edge of the threat area here
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 9:36:59 AM EDT
I think you folks in the Midwest is getting hit by the same storm that hit the West Coast. In the Los Angeles at my house we got a little rain, nothing to write home about, but in the higher elevations of such as Tejon and Cajon passes, we got a bit of snow; and in the mountains, the skiiers and snow boarders are jumping up and down. This rain and snow is much over due for us.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 9:38:32 AM EDT

Originally Posted By -Duke-Nukem-:
inkpot.com/film/twist2.gif

Thanks for the heads up. Yikes...



Its goin to be a fun night agian, thank god im not out working on the parking lot tonight.



I got the lawn chairs readdy on the driveway

Link Posted: 3/12/2006 9:38:48 AM EDT
Emporia KS is under a Tor-warning ATM.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 9:44:19 AM EDT
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 9:48:01 AM EDT

Originally Posted By cmjohnson:
I lived in Nebraska for four years. I have a clue of what you're talking about.

The clouds and weather get really awesome and intimidating in a storm system like that.
Beautiful to look at, but keep close to your shelter.


CJ




Shelter?

you mean your front porch
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 12:33:18 PM EDT
Southern Indiana has had rain and thunderstorms for three days, we are now have flooding problems due to the heavy rain.
At 15:30 hrs we have thunder and lightening.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 2:55:22 PM EDT
Baseball size hail at my brother in law and father in law's places near Basehor. Destroyed my brother-in-law's supercharged Dakota 5.9 R/T, broke out my father-in-law's virtually brand new windows on the south and east sides of his house. Both of their houses' roofs are pretty screwed up.

Jim
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 3:02:22 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/12/2006 3:02:59 PM EDT by Grunteled]
Got tennis-ball size hail here near Liberty and we got to spend some time in our basement. Just the straight-line winds blew down some metal buildings ripped off a roof and knocked some cars off the roads. They had to come 30 mins after my 2yr old started taking a nap?
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 3:05:51 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Grunteled:
Got tennis-ball size hail here near Liberty and we got to spend some time in our basement. Just the straight-line winds blew down some metal buildings ripped off a roof and knocked some cars off the roads. They had to come 30 mins after my 2yr old started taking a nap?



Tennis-ball sized hail ! I'd like to see that, but I really wouldn't like to actually see that.



Stay safe!
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 3:07:22 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/12/2006 3:08:05 PM EDT by Harp]
We got alot of broken windshields here in Columbia, Missouri from hail. High winds whipped through the south of town with alot of ominous upper atmospheric rotation. We survived, though, and it looks like the worst of the weather has come and gone.

Harp
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 3:23:36 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Harp:
We got alot of broken windshields here in Columbia, Missouri from hail. High winds whipped through the south of town with alot of ominous upper atmospheric rotation. We survived, though, and it looks like the worst of the weather has come and gone.

Harp



It looks like we have got anoughter line forming over kansas now.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 3:38:43 PM EDT
Lovely! It looks like we'll all be back in the bomb shelter (or out on the front porch with binoculars) later tonight. There was substantial hail damage on 8th, 9th and 10th Streets in Columbia. Both of the Gold's Gym's that I run had to cut memebers' workouts short and sequester the folks to a secure area.
A bunch of these people went out later to find their vehicles f#@ked up. My Old Crown Vic took some hits, but is little worse for the wear.

Harp
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 3:41:02 PM EDT
This is one helluva supercell
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 3:42:17 PM EDT

Originally Posted By JBowles:

Originally Posted By Harp:
We got alot of broken windshields here in Columbia, Missouri from hail. High winds whipped through the south of town with alot of ominous upper atmospheric rotation. We survived, though, and it looks like the worst of the weather has come and gone.

Harp



It looks like we have got anoughter line forming over kansas now.



Yup, its on its way to AR too. We got some last night (some roads were rivers, saw a mustang in a ditch). I hadn't seen rain like that since I was in southern Mississippi last April. Good God that was a flood and a half...
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 4:02:46 PM EDT
It's clear outside in STL.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 4:15:09 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/12/2006 4:17:24 PM EDT by jpman7]
Around 3 pm today we had all six metro counties under a tornado warning at the same time, lots of fun! There were twisters all aroud us, in the southern part of our county, NKC, west of us in KS, east of KC. The storms are currently firing back up right now. Mostly just the severe thunderstorm type but north of KC is getting tornados. Wild weather! We only had pea sized hail, but they were showing golf ball to baseball sized hail on the weather reports. People were emailing pics in to the news. 25 miles west of here had almost baseball sized hail, amazing!
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 4:30:36 PM EDT
Wow! I've been away from the pc all day. The SPC doesn't issue high risk areas very often. Myabe two or three a year. I'd love to be up there chasing now. You guys stay safe up there.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 4:36:04 PM EDT
Hey, I hope nobody is under that supercell in Illinois. That's the one I'd put my money on.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 4:38:07 PM EDT
I live in the STL area. I am loading up my mags right now.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 4:42:33 PM EDT

Originally Posted By TheLibertarianMind:
I live in the STL area. I am loading up my mags right now.


Yeah, that's going to help. Unless you're loading them into your shelter.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 4:46:05 PM EDT
We, in the Ohio Valley (Evansville IN) area, are gonna get hit with this stuff after midnight. Looks like the potential for some big downbursts and straight line winds as this moves in.

The SPC said "This is an extremely dangerous situation" (their red for emphasis, not mine). They don't do that very often.

I'll be out SKYWARN spotting for the local EMA & the NWS as this crap comes in. I hate spotting at night!! It's REALLY hard to see what's going on and with the trees and hills around here you can't see very far unless you deploy to a good location.

To all of you in the forecast area.....God bless and Y'all keep yer heads on a swivel tonight!!
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 4:58:51 PM EDT
755 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CST FOR
SOUTHERN MORGAN AND WESTERN SANGAMON COUNTIES...

AT 751 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FRANKLIN...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
JACKSONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
WAVERLY.
NEW BERLIN.
LOAMI.
SPRINGFIELD.
CHATHAM.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 4:59:01 PM EDT

Originally Posted By VTHOKIESHOOTER:
This is one helluva supercell
image.weather.com/web/radar/us_stl_closeradar_large_usen.jpg



I live right in the middle of that red spot!

Tornado was about 10 miles south of here near Hillview and it was headed for Murrayville. The weather man said its in Franklin ,IL right now 6 miles south of me.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 6:25:47 PM EDT
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 6:30:26 PM EDT

Originally Posted By -Duke-Nukem-:
Dammit, just got out of the cellar to post up and the damn sirens are going off again.

Well, cya later (I think...)



Have fun and stay safe.

It looks if I have 20-30mins before the fun gets here
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 6:47:23 PM EDT
Update



Yeah its coming right over the house according to KY3's storm tracker.



YYYYEEEEEHHHHHHAAAAAWWWW!!
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 7:09:06 PM EDT
Sirens are going now.

The lightning is preatty good.

I will post as soon as its over.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 7:09:19 PM EDT
I'm at work right now in LeeSummit MO we had about five minutes of golfball to tennisball sized hail just about 45 minutes ago. If you've never seen hail this size, it is intense. Luckily no broken windows, due to the fact that we had no high winds with it I think. I would not like to think of how this would have effected us if the wind had been 60-80 mph like some of the other areas experienced today. Everyone stay safe tonight.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 7:20:08 PM EDT
The airport at Moline Il clocked 123 mph winds.





Straight line winds are now occuring now.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 7:39:40 PM EDT
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 8:08:22 PM EDT

Originally Posted By JBowles:
Sirens are going now.

The lightning is preatty good.

I will post as soon as its over.



hurry up man my wife is in springfeild and i get get ahold of her now.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 8:13:00 PM EDT

Originally Posted By txwxgirl:
Wow! I've been away from the pc all day. The SPC doesn't issue high risk areas very often. Myabe two or three a year. I'd love to be up there chasing now. You guys stay safe up there.



Hoooweeee!!!!!!! Just got back.

That was one hell of a storm to chase, you should have been here!!!
Was out of town all day & way east of the storm but managed to get back soon enough to catch up with it. Actually got a little ahead of it but didn't realize it until it was a bit too late, damn thing snuck up behind us.

We were sitting on the side of the road watching everything that the lightening was lighting up when I noticed that the clouds southwest of us were no longer there. Then I saw that big black wall about a mile away headed right at us. I turned around about the time the hail hit & didn't get very far when the wind hit us. I couldn't get the truck to go over 25 mph & couldn't see the road at all from the horizontal rain except for the markers right when we came up on them. As I watched the car in front of us get blown off of the road I started to turn into the wind & the truck just slid over a lane & a half. I stayed in it & kept it on the road until we made it to an area where the road goes through a low lying area that was partially blocked from the wind. Of course that was several miles away.
Talk about freakin ride!!!

Damn I love this stuff!!!


____________________________________
The only hope you have is to accept the fact that you are already dead. And the sooner you accept that, the sooner you will be able to function as a soldier is supposed to function, without mercy, without compassion, without remorse.

Link Posted: 3/12/2006 8:25:57 PM EDT
http://i46.photobucket.com/albums/f117/uberalles83/ohnoes3ia.jpg

Sorry for stealing the picture Jbowles =) Should be over Joplin/Carl Junction (and me) according to that radar, and we are feeling it. Lightning, small hail, rain, wind enough to shake my house. Cable went out half an hour ago, but it was promptly fixed. Lets hope this isn't a repeat of May 4, 2003, that is barely cleaned up around here.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 8:27:18 PM EDT

Originally Posted By -Duke-Nukem-:
inkpot.com/film/twist2.gif

Thanks for the heads up. Yikes...



I watched that tonight in honor of the storms coming. Good flick on surround sound.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 8:31:24 PM EDT

Originally Posted By ColtShorty:

Originally Posted By txwxgirl:
Wow! I've been away from the pc all day. The SPC doesn't issue high risk areas very often. Myabe two or three a year. I'd love to be up there chasing now. You guys stay safe up there.



Hoooweeee!!!!!!! Just got back.

That was one hell of a storm to chase, you should have been here!!!
Was out of town all day & way east of the storm but managed to get back soon enough to catch up with it. Actually got a little ahead of it but didn't realize it until it was a bit too late, damn thing snuck up behind us.

We were sitting on the side of the road watching everything that the lightening was lighting up when I noticed that the clouds southwest of us were no longer there. Then I saw that big black wall about a mile away headed right at us. I turned around about the time the hail hit & didn't get very far when the wind hit us. I couldn't get the truck to go over 25 mph & couldn't see the road at all from the horizontal rain except for the markers right when we came up on them. As I watched the car in front of us get blown off of the road I started to turn into the wind & the truck just slid over a lane & a half. I stayed in it & kept it on the road until we made it to an area where the road goes through a low lying area that was partially blocked from the wind. Of course that was several miles away.
Talk about freakin ride!!!

Damn I love this stuff!!!


____________________________________
The only hope you have is to accept the fact that you are already dead. And the sooner you accept that, the sooner you will be able to function as a soldier is supposed to function, without mercy, without compassion, without remorse.




Tease! Sounds like you got a bit too close though.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 8:38:08 PM EDT
I am in Lawrence KS for the weekend. 8 am sirens and a tornado near by, power out a few blocks away still and power trucks coming in from Kansas city. Fun weekend with lots of signs and trees down and 2 inch hail.
Link Posted: 3/12/2006 8:38:53 PM EDT
We have had quite a few miss us so far, One touched down just about 9 miles from us here in the Marion/Monroe county area. Sirens been going off all night so I guess I will just sleep in the damn basement. I am just a block away from one of the sirens so I probably won't be getting any sleep anyway.
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