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Posted: 3/4/2006 6:25:42 AM EDT
[#1]
My prediction for the very near future in the Dallas area. Sellers market for a home $250K and under. Buyers market for a home over $250K. It's what I've been waiting for. I have a lot of equity in my home, it's almost paid for and I want to move up to something with around 4,000 sq ft., but stay under $450K |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 6:38:33 AM EDT
[#2]
You act like it's simply a matter of the original poster being lazy or not willing to do any work to get a house or condo. If he lives in an area that's seen a real run up in prices, as I do, it's a different ballgame. I want to see the prices come down because everything is overpriced! It's bad for the community. Teachers, police officers, etc can't even afford a condo. That's rediculous. In my opinion, the investors are really to blame. Unfortuanetly if the housing market in my area does tumble a bit, the people that bought in at the top will get hurt. I'm not happy about it, but the market must reach equilibrium. When the median salary is 35k, and the median price of a house is $351k, there's a problem! |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 6:43:06 AM EDT
[#3]
Can someone explain WHY it matters?
Unless you are planning on becoming homeless as a strategy, or moving somewhere completely different, I can't see how it matters. For example, say I have a house worth $125k, and I want to sell it and buy a house worth $175k, then the 'bubble bursts' and my house is now worth $100k. Well, I will then be able to buy the other house for around $140k, all things being equal. So unless you're looking to get out of home ownership completely, the difference will be a wash because the REPLACEMENT VALUE will be less as well. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 6:44:01 AM EDT
[#4]
This is a good site to keep up to date on the presence of or lack thereof a housing bubble. The first article relates directly to what we're talking about.
anotherfuckedborrower.blogspot.com/ |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 6:45:20 AM EDT
[#5]
Dude, you're going to be in a double wide in New Mexico. How are you sitting? You going to be sitting in a tailer in the desert. How does that sound. 
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Posted: 3/4/2006 6:57:58 AM EDT
[#6]
w00t!
I am buying a house this may/june.. .just in time! |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:03:42 AM EDT
[#7]
Actually it's the facts show it's the other way around with a couple hundred thousand people moving into California a year causing the housing supply to be short - supply and demand. There are plenty of high paying jobs here and the weather is great but let me point out that in fact, California is full right now. Stay home. The people moving here from America have turned this place from the home of Ronald Reagan, John Wayne, and (adopted) Rush Limbaugh to a liberal one in 20 short years. Thanks but keep your liberals. Please tell your friends and neighbors about the high crime, pollution, insane rent/mortgages, terrible traffic and high taxes. The stuff you see in the movies isn't real, it snows here, it's too hot, it doesn't stop raining much ... |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:07:27 AM EDT
[#8]
... Good, time to buy another house
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:11:58 AM EDT
[#9]
Source? The figures I saw for 2004 was a gain of 190,000 people - the only states that are actually losing people are the rust belt ones. I would want to know why every city around me for 20 miles is putting in new homes that are selling, new factories and warehouses are opening as fast as the concrete drys, and the government is building new schools for someone's kids. I haven't seen 2005 estimates yet ... off to search around. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:14:20 AM EDT
[#10]
could it be los illegalos??? |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:16:11 AM EDT
[#11]
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:16:48 AM EDT
[#12]
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:17:14 AM EDT
[#13]
I hope it does burst. My current home is never going to drop below what i paid for it. I would love to buy a second home if the prices came down.
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:23:59 AM EDT
[#14]
From the official California Department of Finance Demographic Reseach Unit.
There were five counties that had a decrease in population - Modoc, Sierra, Alpine, Mono, and Inyo which are the ones bordering Nevada. Looks like a bit less than half the increase is due to
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:23:59 AM EDT
[#15]
I don't know if he is lazy, that was just a general cheap shot  Lots of people live in Malibu that can't afford to buy their own, so if they insist on living here, they have to rent. If you can't afford to buy in an expensive neighborhood, then just buy in a nice, not necessarily expensive location, good location doesn't always mean expensive. It goes back to what I said earlier about folks wanting their first home to be their dream home which is unrealistic. I'm now looking to buy a $1.2M house, this is totally beyond the means I had back when I first started in 2001. Some blame investors (I am a part time investor) for inflation in housing prices, but there's more to it than just that simplistic explanation. If I don't buy the investment property, someone that will use it as a primary residence will, so what difference does it make? Either way the property is bought. It's the demand that's driving the prices up for the most part. I recently sold a property in Pacific Palisades, and sold it about $100K less than I expected, I still made out ok so I have no regrets. While in general sales slowed and prices are a lot more down to earth, in some areas much more expensive properties get snapped up within a few days of being listed. The days of asking AND getting outrageous prices are over for now. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:24:48 AM EDT
[#16]
You cant buy a decent house in orange County for less than $360K. That will be 3 bedroom 1.5 bath build in the late 60's. For a 5 bedroom built in the last 10 years you are looking at 500K for a fixer upper and $700K for a well maintained home. Usually with association fees of $200+ a month and Mellaroos of as much as $700.00 a month is some communities. For example in some of the new developments in San Clemenete buyers are paying over $1,100 a month in association fees and mellaroos alone. Add the mortgage payments and property taxes on top of that and your housing cost are easily over $5K a month. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:29:50 AM EDT
[#17]
Oddly enough the tax rate has either stayed the same or even dropped in the last five years.  The worker's compensation reform has attracted companies back into the state. Most of the United States has followed California's real estate tax reform a couple of decades ago. The high priced housing has encouraged people to leave selling their modest three and four bedroom homes and taking their profits into another state where that will buy a ranch with six bedrooms on huge tracks of land with cash. It goes without saying that some is right behind them buying that home for a "hyper-inflated" price else how would the person have the money to buy elsewhere?
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:31:06 AM EDT
[#18]
Get back to me when prices actually DECREASE.
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:32:49 AM EDT
[#19]
So long as it doesn't burst to the point that people begin LOSING money in houses they already have, we'll be OK.
If it goes too far, then we're in for some BAD times. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:36:38 AM EDT
[#20]
You'll excuse me if I don't run straight to the realtor I hope.. I said, "I've heard that bubble shit one too many times" a whole lot of times ago. Nobody will party harder when it goes though.. Renting sucks.
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:38:05 AM EDT
[#21]
Well, I think the issue is, if you look at the big picture, communitiies need affordable housing (not just for Wal Mart types) for typical white collar jobs. Here in Sarasota (and all over Florida) it's getting much harder to hire policeman, fireman, teachers, nurses, etc. In this area something like 60% of condo purchases are said to be by investors. If 30% of home owners have a second residence, that's obviously going to result in an increase in demand, hence higher prices. I'm looking for a starter home (or condo) right now. In my area a condo is a risky investment. With so many investors involved, should they decide to pull up anchor, that could really affect the market. That's scary! Especially for someone with no equity to fall back on. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:39:00 AM EDT
[#22]
If you are just buying your first house at 45 or 50, chances are you will be having a payment on your principal dwelling. If you go into retirement paying half of your income on living quarters you are going to be screwed. Or, more aptly put, the rest of us will, because we will have to pay for all your drugs and health care. Part of the problem is the SIZE of the houses being put up. If you don't have 9 kids, who NEEDS a 4 or 5K SQ foot house. If you WANT it, fine. If you can AFFORD it, fine. Problem is, some guy making 80K a year CAN'T afford it and will STILL buy it. I've never met so many house rich, cash poor schmucks in my life as I have in the past 5 years. Thay can't even pay to fix their appliances, and "hope" you feel sorry for them and do it cheap.[or free]. I don't feel sorry for them anymore, their house is their whore and they are paying for the "pleasure" of entering her every day. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:44:29 AM EDT
[#23]
Apparently, it's the same in the Raleigh/Durham area (where I am now), though not nearly to the levels in NOVA. Yet?  I hope so, because I'll be buying something within three months. It actually costs more to RENT here than to buy. 
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:47:05 AM EDT
[#24]
There are an awful lot of Americans living well beyond their means. Many have 2nd or 3rd mortgages on their homes to finance their lifestyle and when the dominoes start falling it could get very ugly. We'll see how it shakes out but it sounds like the banks are going to own a lot of homes over the next several years. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:48:08 AM EDT
[#25]
I don't think we are going to see a national burst. Maybe some small reigonal ones where prices are too inflated and the market was too hot.
I think it is a more of a slowdown caused by rising interest rates. So do you wait for interest rates to stop rising? or Do you wait for housing prices to fall or correct? Interesting dilema. I think if you do either you are screwed. Better to just go on with business as usual. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:48:46 AM EDT
[#26]
GOOD! housing is overpriced right now anyways. It could stand a good deflating.
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:53:58 AM EDT
[#27]
House rich and cash poor I am, but it isn't beyond my means. Given my lack of self control in spending, I made a conscious choice to pour disposable income into investments, because I would have spent it on toys, cars, etc. when unregulated. Most of my income is going into my investments but I have reserves for all of them, I have the means to maintain them and still lead a decent life. My present dwelling is small and hardly my dream home, but the goal is to have my primary residence and investment properties paid off, by the time I retire I will not ask or need anyone's leave to do anything.
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Posted: 3/4/2006 7:59:05 AM EDT
[#28]
The news media hates George W. Bush and will do anything to destroy him, even if it means destroying the country. I don't really believe that there is a housing problem. Just do what is best for you and ignore the news.
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Posted: 3/4/2006 8:06:31 AM EDT
[#29]
I can only talk about the NY housing market & I know nothing about the rest of the nations market, But here is an interesting story.
My Grandfather told me a story about when he was house shopping in 1950, He mentioned the price of a property he was interested in to a couple of friends, One of them said don't buy now the prices are too high & they are going to drop. Good thing he did not listen & Bought the house; He never saw a price like that again, Prices went nothing but UP from that point on. That $9,000 house he purchased in 1950 is now worth $1,500,000, In NY over the years the rise in home prices may have slowed down for a while but the prices have allways gone up. So if you are in the market for a home buy today, If you are waiting for some big price drop you are probably going to waiting forever. Rising prices may slow or stagnate for a while but in the long term will almost allways go up. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 8:15:08 AM EDT
[#30]
Ah, but you have obviously put a bit more thought into it then most people I see anymore. You also recognise a weakness in yourself and have forced yourself to direct your energies elsewhere. Thats not stupid in my book. The normal overmortgaged person tends to just be a "Jones" follower. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 8:21:09 AM EDT
[#31]
What you need to do is look at housing prices in a context with earning power. Figure out the percentage it'll cost you. Sorry, new buyers are truly being f---ed, and that does not include the percentage of taxes, fees, water/sewer bills and all the rest. Prices might not drop, but something will give sooner or later, you ever follow forclosure numbers? The trend is not good and most people have NO equity when it is forclosed upon. Too much Jonesin maybe, but it is a problem. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 8:23:34 AM EDT
[#32]
That may be true but this has nothing to do with Bush or the MSM. Speculators, interest rates, and the fact that most who were going to buy now have, is what has contributed to the bubble, etc.
That last part is always good advice but I would be temtped to wait a little if I were planning on entering the housing market. If you already own a home it really doesn't much matter unless you are willing to take the risk of selling and going into an Apt, liquifying and buying in 2-3 years. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 8:30:08 AM EDT
[#33]
Sigh. Equity markets cycle, always have, always will. If the "Bubble Burts", it won't be the first time the California market was a bloodbath.
To you Chicken Littles out there, the sky is NOT falling. Again - there is no such thing as a bad market, only different ways to operate within any given market. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 8:31:58 AM EDT
[#34]
The idea that house prices always go up is crap, as anyone who was around Southern California in 1989-1996 can tell you. In real terms house prices declined by about 35%. As the saying goes, the housing market runs on a ten year cycle but has a seven year memory. Plenty of my friends had to give money to the bank on closing when they had to move for job-related reasons. It sucked.
Right now the affordability indexes are in the single digits for some coastal areas, like San Diego. That means you need a top 10% income to afford a median-priced house. That's roughly $130-$150K of income. Even with low interest rates and ARMS and exotic mortgages and low/zero down the pool of buyers is pretty small. As Stein's Law says, something that can't go on forever eventually stops. It's a economic impossiblity for prices to continue going up at 10-20% per year. And when this little merry-go-round stops a lot of people will get burned. A $750K house and a 20% drop equals $150K of lost value. Many people--up to 50-60% in some areas--who bought in 2005/2004 did so with IO loans or have HELOCs that cashed out their equity. A price drop of that magnitude can wipe people out for a decade or more. Take a look at the rent/buy decision. In many areas it costs about 1/2 as much to rent as to buy across the whole price range of housing. Many "investors" in condos can't charge rent that covers their expenses; their gamble is that house prices rise enough to cover their costs. That's what's driving the condo conversion craze in FL and San Diego, in which apartments are converted into condos. It's also a gigantic warning sign that one asset class is overvalued. Even if prices merely stall the people not making cash flow will be under intense pressure to sell. Me, I'm socking away an amount at least equal to my rent. A few years down the road I'll probably be shopping for a forclosure. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 8:34:19 AM EDT
[#35]
Well just to answer the WTF is wrong with you, the economy will ALWAYS have winners and losers. Due to my age (time entering market) I have lost so far. I work for the federal gov and make pretty good for fed, still can not get close to a 1 bedroom condo where I live. they are going for around 400 - 500k. It is my belief that there is a large amount of artificial value in these prices a lot of people were speculating. (benefiting at my expense) I am just waiting for inflation to push up interest rates so they have to sell while no one wants to buy. This will hurt the economy overall, making the prices tumble in some very specific markets. Nothing mean about it, in every type of economy there will be winners and losers in different areas of the market. And as for the lazy comment I work my ass off, am working on a second degree and already make well above the median income.... but when house payments for a condo are like 3K a month something has to give. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 8:40:30 AM EDT
[#36]
Do you have link to this Affordability Index? I'd like to look up my area.
Yes, but the people who can't afford their BMW lease are still going to pay the electric bill and buy groceries with credit cards, and re-finance every 2-3 years, pulling all their equity out. Hey, it's the middle class way!! These people, with their piss poor financial management, are the ones that are going to get burned the worst. Imagine owing $300k on a house worth $225. Ouch.
GASP! You mean, you are going to delay instant gratification?!?!? Heresy!!! |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 8:42:30 AM EDT
[#37]
When there is serious talk of 50 [FIFTY] year mortgages on houses, it's telling me that houses have far outstripped income. There is also talk of 2nd generation mortgages.
I hope the speculators get screwed, they deserve whatever happens to the market. I'll just sit here on my couple of acre little plot with my lil house, pay my 497 per month house note [yes I pay extra also] $68 per month taxes and chill. [Oh, thats a 15 year mortgage also] I will actually be able to retire someday and will be debt free well before that time. Which is the way it should be. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 8:43:17 AM EDT
[#38]
No offense dude, but quit blaming it on market timing. Instead, learn something about finance. What's the second degree in? Considering the amount of impact a person's wealth has on their life, it is downright SCARY how little people know about personal finance. Most just regurgitate what the 401k advisor at work told them in a 45 minute presentation, or what the media manages to spout off in a series of 5 second soundbites. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 8:43:21 AM EDT
[#39]
markm is that you?? What have you done with Paul?? Stop kidnapping the staff and GET BACK TO AZ YOU MULLET! Woot!!  |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 8:43:44 AM EDT
[#40]
I don't see a bursting bubble in Southern California yet. What you generally see this time of year is less selling and less homes on the market. I do see a softening market as the run-up is unsustainable. If we have a flat market for a year or two we're still OK. If we see mortgage rates (adjustable ones) go up we will see some foreclosures but most of the buying was done by move-ups and they have lots of equity. I've lived and owned here for 35 years and followed the market fairly closely and actually saw values decline for a few years but it would take a recession.
We priced and sold our last home in about 15 days. Another agent had a home around the corner for more that wasn't as nice as ours and ended up waiting months to sell and was ticked that we had priced ours lower. A "frothy" market is like that, easy to over price and under price because you're talking $50,000 sometimes on a $630,000 home. That's a lot of money to some people. The local economy still seems pretty strong, despite the chicken littles that are pretty much always there. "March 03, 2006 Back above $600k! If $600,000 for a shack means anything, we're back. DataQuick said Friday that for the 22 business days ended Feb. 22, the median selling price of all Orange County residences was $602,000. If that price holds -- and that's 7.9% above a year ago -- January's sharp price dip below the magical six-hundred grand might qualify as a blip. For the most recent 22 days, sales volume in The O.C. was 7.3% below a year ago. If that pattern stays, February would have been the fourth straight month of year-over-year sales declines. As for the big slices: Resale houses: Median of $680,000, +14.3% in a year. Volume: -17.4% vs. 2005. Condos: $467,250, +18.3%. Volume: -14.7% New homes: $565,000, -28.2%. Volume: +73.7% Combined median: $602,000, +7.9% in a year. Volume: -7.3% In January, overall prices fell by $39,000 from December's record $621,000 to $582,000. (SEE STORY) It was the first time in eight months that the median fell below $600,000. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 8:48:46 AM EDT
[#41]
Not really, as there was not much of a bubble to begin with here.
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Posted: 3/4/2006 8:53:03 AM EDT
[#42]
Even tough I bought my house in the peak of the market, I still think its very harmful to the community in the long run if you price regular homes outside beyond regular folks income. Whats going to happen when teachers, nurses, police, firefighters, etc... cant afford to live anywhere close to work. This is very bad in the long term for quality of life in these communities with yearly double digit home price increases. I dont think its going to burst (but will slow down and slightly decrease in some areas), but the damage is probably already done. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 8:56:29 AM EDT
[#43]
It is if you're one of those suckers who bought at the top looking for a quick flip. 
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Posted: 3/4/2006 9:08:52 AM EDT
[#44]
Not to mention the fact that those same suckers only know the word "flip" from the idiotic TV shows about them. After seeing the fucking morons on some of those shows, it's no wonder most rehabbers lose their ass. They truly deserve what they get, as they know dick about what they are doing. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 9:12:14 AM EDT
[#45]
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Posted: 3/4/2006 9:16:41 AM EDT
[#46]
Yes, but if guys like me, who don't own anything, didn't drive this economy in the first place, everyone else wouldn't be in the position they're in now. It's actually lazy homeowners that are trying to make a huge profit for doing nothing other than being in the right place at the right time. (Besides, all I see them doing around here is making illegal rental apartments to pay their mortgage for them, so that they can buy another house to start the cycle over again. This, in turn, fucks everybody with the increase in taxes to cover things like schools, fire departments, police departments, trash pickup, etc.) I, for one, hope the bubble bursts. It is not about wishing harm on anyone else, it is about trying to get in the door. Even if it does burst, all it really means is that homeowners have to sit tight until it comes back up, then they can sell and take their huge profits. Before you bash me, here's my situation: I want to buy a house on Long Island. I want a nice neighborhood. A tiny house is fine. I found a neighborhood that I am happy with. All the houses there were built in 1967-1969 and went for $17k, $19k, or $23k new - depending on size. 5-7 years ago, when I could afford a $50-75k house, they were selling for $125k+ (this is the smallest/cheapest house). Now I can afford a $200k house, however, they are going for $360-380k for the same house. Add to that the fact that you are getting a 40 year old house that is going to have problems (like crappy aluminum wiring, 40 year old burner, cesspool problems, etc). |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 9:17:39 AM EDT
[#47]
I apologize for that comment. A $3K a month mortgage will get you a $450K loan if you do interest only and have proprety tax impounded, first time buyers should probably stay away from a big loan like that unless they make $120K to $150K a year. |
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Posted: 3/4/2006 9:19:38 AM EDT
[#48]
That is a NATIONAL concern!........
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Posted: 3/4/2006 9:27:19 AM EDT
[#49]
I'm really worried about the market here in the DC area. Once the fed gubment decreases in size we're F'ed.
Until then, we're fine.
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Posted: 3/4/2006 9:46:40 AM EDT
[#50]
Saturday, March 4, 2006
Hi Guys: Just for information, the average price for a new single-family home here in Las Vegas, Nevada, in January was $318,000. For February, 2006, it is now $301,000. On the news the other night was reported a record number of home foreclosures here in the Las Vegas area. There is a high-rise luxury condominium building boom now going on in Las Vegas, Nevada, with the prices in the $550,000 to $3,000,000 price range, with sales being reported as brisk. The Las Vegas, Nevada, housing market is rated as one of the best in the nation; looks like a growing gap between the very rich and the average worker. Take Care… MP5 Machinenpistole |
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