It’s easy to assume that things are moving “to the brink” when you look at today’s headlines. And yet we emerged from the Cold War unscathed, a time when all thought that things couldn’t become direr. Regardless, I would think that a future war would be triggered by economic collapse and competition for resources more so than religion alone. One article that recently caught my eye…
By Fred Weir, Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor, Wed Oct 26, 2005
===========================================================
Russia and China could take a step closer to forming a Eurasian military confederacy to rival NATO at a Moscow meeting of the six-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Wednesday, experts say. The group, which started in 2001 with limited goals of promoting cooperation in former Soviet Central Asia, has evolved rapidly toward a regional security bloc and could soon induct new members such as India, Pakistan, and Iran.
My thoughts...
Although such an alliance would make for strange bedfellows, it's possible that these countries could form a loose knit confederacy. Of even bigger concern, it's been rumored that China's aggressive military budget is likely 3x what they have openly reported. Just five years ago China had no capabilities to conduct an amphibious assault on Taiwan. Today, they have several
troop transports and are building more. They have bought many submarines from Russia in addition to the right to produce Soviet fighters within the PRC. The Russians are so strapped for cash that they are more than willing to sell military hardware to China. While these two countries were pitted against each other during the Cold War, Russia is increasingly wary of U.S. dominance in world affairs. The fact that even more former communist block countries could be considered for NATO partnership raises the stakes even further. It’s also apparent that China and Russia are very concerned by continued U.S. presence in their backyard, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan. There of course, is much global suspicion that the U.S. is in Iraq in an attempt to secure its access to oil in an uncertain world. It's well known that one reason oil prices surged this year is due to the fact that China was aggressively seeking to secure it's own oil to fuel its booming growth. This competition will only get fiercer. And while it would seem that China would have an economic stake in playing nice with the U.S., there is no shortage of global companies who seek access to China's cheap labor force. Their economy might eventually be one to be reckoned with.
Another point of concern is the state of the global economy. Of course we all know that the U.S. economy is the worlds largest and what happens on Wall Street certainly influences foreign markets. But I cannot help but think that the U.S. economy is on very shaky grounds. Our trade deficit continues to increase to record levels, along with the budget deficit, national debt, and consumer debt. I still believe that there is too much excess speculation on Wall Street and what relief was provided when the market dipped in 2001, it wasn't enough and stock prices are still too high. Renowned Yale economist Robert Shiller has also recently stated that current average PE ratios are still far above their historical norm and implied that speculation still abounds. But while Wall Street cooled off in 2001-2002, the next round of speculation simply shifted to create the real estate bubble. Recent estimates place some of America’s hottest properties to be overvalued by up to 50%. Would a drop in home valuations cause consumer spending to cool off? I’m not sure, but it’s unsettling to me how the state of the economy is driven by something so fragile as “consumer confidence”. The point is, history has shown that the longer mass speculation goes unchecked, the worse the consequences and more severe the medicine. If the economy ever does fall into a recession, foreign investors pulling their money out of Wall Street in search alternative investments would further exacerbate the problem.
Also troubling is the state of manufacturing in this country. American steel manufacturing used to be tops in the world but eventually collapsed due to global competition. This collapse was eventually followed by the airline industry and now quite possibly, the American auto industry. Detroit’s big three used to dominate the globe. Now a foreign company owns one of those and Ford & GM find themselves struggling against a myriad of challenges. Much else of the U.S. manufacturing capacity has been off shored to foreign soil.
The good news continues. The increase of corporate bankruptcies and dumped pensions is putting an ever-growing strain on PBGC. As you know, PBGC is a government-backed agency, which backs pension plans or takes over defaulted pensions at a reduced rate of return. Last reports showed PBGC under funded by tens of billions of dollars and some fear that the government will eventually be forced to bail them out. This would be much larger than the S&L bailout many years back. And what about Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, which are also grossly under funded? (So this is what we get which Socialism…eh?) While any one of these concerns may not pose substantial risk to the economy and it’s ability to weather the storm, their combined weight certainly do.
So what if there was a global collapse of economies? Is it impossible to conceive Russia moving back to communism out of sheer desperation? Could ever-growing demands for fossil fuels and raw materials force China to become an aggressor to feed its growing economy and population, much like Japan in the 1940's? Perhaps Iran and other Islamic extremist countries would provide oil to energy-starved countries like China, so long as they back them militarily against the hated Jews and Americans? And while Russian and Chinese politicians appear to be religiously stagnant, they probably would have no problems backing religious extremism so long as they stood to benefit.
But then again, perhaps my biggest concern should be with Iran? You have a country awash with oil that claims it needs nuclear technology to feed it’s growing energy needs. That is pure bullshit. The Iranian president simply sees himself in a position to hasten in the second coming of their “Allah”. With that in mind it seems unlikely that Iran will bow to diplomatic pressures. He will only exploit this confrontation with the UN to further his religious goals. He would really welcome an attack by the hated Jewish state as it would really unite the Arabs, Muslims, Islams (whatever the hell you call all them all???)
Those were a few thoughts I had. I’m sure there are many flaws with my opinions, so go easy on me my friends.