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Posted: 1/25/2006 7:20:38 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/25/2006 7:23:51 AM EDT by Scooter1942]
I can't help thinking that things are going South at an ever increasing pace. Whether you agree or disagree with different assesments of the world political situation, it seems that the Western World and the Muslim/Middle East is on a crash course and I'm not convinced there's any stopping it. I don't mean to sound apocolyptic, but I'm starting to get that feeling that I had as a child, that someday I'll die when a commie drops a nuke on me. Replace "commie" with "terrorist" or "government supported terrorist" and it seems wer're right back to where we were during the cold war...only less stable.

I'm sure there are more, but just some things that are making headlines.

-Taliban reconstituted in ethnic tribal region of Pakistan.
-Pakistans pro-US dictator can't hang on forever.
-Pakistan has nukes
-Iran wants nukes
-Iran will get nukes
-Israel won't stand for Iran with nukes
-Pick your story about Iraq. Our boys are doing a lot of good things at the macro level, but in the bigger picture some would suggest we're just adding fuel to the fire.
-US Army is stretched to "breaking point"
-Explosives stolen in Texas & New Mexico
-Middle Eastern men caught buying tons of disposable cell phones
-China is about to be largest economic power, huge military, and willing to help Iran with Nuke power
-We have very little manufacturing capability anymore, which would cripple us in a major war.

The bad news just keeps on coming.

So, are we headed for WWIII or a giant holy war like no other? How long do we have...or has it already started?
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 7:21:43 AM EDT
I think it's about 1934 again. But things move much faster these days...
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 7:24:25 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/25/2006 7:25:01 AM EDT by ar15bubba]


We have been in a limited WWIII or IV depending on how you are counting. A larger scale WW is probably 6 months or less from now. Get your Russian 7.62x39 while you can.
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 7:25:02 AM EDT
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 7:27:40 AM EDT
If it's going to happen in my lifetime, I say 5 years or less.

This of course depends on whether or not China gets belligerent due to oil shortages. That's a whole 'nother ball of wax and you can't put an approximate timeline on it... Depends on when oil prices rise so high it begins making sense for them to go over their border to "secure" oil.
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 7:28:10 AM EDT
I honestly don't think we will see a conventional WW like the last one.
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 7:38:55 AM EDT
I can't help thinking that things are going South at an ever increasing pace. Whether you agree or disagree with different assesments of the world political situation, it seems that the Western World and the Muslim/Middle East is on a crash course and I'm not convinced there's any stopping it. I don't mean to sound apocolyptic, but I'm starting to get that feeling that I had as a child, that someday I'll die when a commie drops a nuke on me. Replace "commie" with "terrorist" or "government supported terrorist" and it seems wer're right back to where we were during the cold war...only less stable.

I'm sure there are more, but just some things that are making headlines.

-Taliban reconstituted in ethnic tribal region of Pakistan.
won't amount to much-Pakistans pro-US dictator can't hang on forever.we will have influence over the next one, and this one isn't the biggest help either.
-Pakistan has nukesno long range missles, can't reach US
-Iran wants nukeswill never get them
-Iran will get nukesno, they won't
-Israel won't stand for Iran with nukesthis is why iran will never get nukes.
-Pick your story about Iraq. Our boys are doing a lot of good things at the macro level, but in the bigger picture some would suggest we're just adding fuel to the fire.you mean micro level (small)? you have to have patience, we aren't going to win this in a year or two, things will improve greatly in the next 3-5 years read your history about germany and japan after WWII
-US Army is stretched to "breaking point"not even close
-Explosives stolen in Texas & New Mexicosmall scale, maybe unrelated to terrorism
-Middle Eastern men caught buying tons of disposable cell phonesthis is a potential problem but this is war and the enemy isn't just going to not do anything.
-China is about to be largest economic power, huge military, and willing to help Iran with Nuke powerchina is a bigger threat economicly than militarily
-We have very little manufacturing capability anymore, which would cripple us in a major war.this can change in the blink of an eye.

The bad news just keeps on coming.only if you listen to the main stink media and their defeatist attitude and loser mentality

So, are we headed for WWIII or a giant holy war like no other? How long do we have...or has it already started?Oh, we are in the middle of WWIII but we aren't even close to losing militarily....economicly we are on some shaky ground, but also nothing we can't recover from in a couple years.


Stop watching the evening news for a while and you'll see how fast real priorities come into focus.

Link Posted: 1/25/2006 7:42:15 AM EDT

Originally Posted By KBaker:
I think it's about 1934 again. But things move much faster these days...



Damn, another illegal ban...
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 7:53:19 AM EDT
I don't see any true world wars kicking off without Europe being heavily involved. Both of the previous world wars heavily involved Europe and that didn't happen by coincidence. The once feared WWIII involving the US and Soviets would have also involved Europe.

So I don't see another world war on the immediate horizon. I do see the potential for a regional war in the Middle East, with some potential (albeit it less) for a regional war developing in the WRN Pacific/ South Asia if China gets greedy. But that's about as big as I expect it to get.

Regional war? Chances are pretty high to see one of those in the Middle East in the near future, especially if Israel attacks Iran.

World war? Very low chance.
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 7:57:37 AM EDT
Speculation/Predictions here, confilicts perhaps in the next 8 years. Could be closer than we think based upon escalation of Iran issue to the point of military conflict:

China invades Taiwan
Pakistan/India full blown attacks on each other
Syria goes back into Lebannon, attacks Israel
Iran/Syria vs. Israel/US

And less likely but hopeful ,
Texas secedes, joins Arizona and New Mexico, invades Mexico
Upstate NY secedes from NYC
Nevada uses chainsaws and starts cutting California loose.


Link Posted: 1/25/2006 8:04:20 AM EDT
We didn't start the fire. It was always burning since the world's been turning.
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 8:08:58 AM EDT
Everyone here is aware of the pathetic openness of our borders. I have no doubt that we have terrorist sleeper cells hidden throughout our country.

What if they attacked all across our country while Iran launched an attack on Israel?

We would have our hands full inside our own borders and would not be able to come to Israel's aid.

Iran is a proven sponsor of terrorism and this would fit in with the goals of destroying western civilization.

Get food, water, and ammo. When you think you have enough, get more.
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 8:28:56 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/25/2006 8:38:31 AM EDT by Coolio]
We're already in it. It's called GWOT.
Right now we have troops either fighting or advising friendly governments how to fight in: Afghanistan, Iraq, The Philippines, Columbia, etc.
Countries either allied with us or otherwise preoccupied with GWOT are; Great Britian, Isreal, Russia, China, Germany, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Spain, Pakistan, Indonesia, etc.

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, flies like a duck, swims like a duck, looks like a duck, etc.

I'd say it looks like a world war to me.
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 8:38:00 AM EDT
WWIII was the Cold War.
We're in WWIV and have been for about 25 years. It started with the Iranian Revolution.
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 8:47:57 AM EDT

Originally Posted By HKgnnr:

Upstate NY secedes from NYC




Amen brother lets get the paper work started
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 8:51:38 AM EDT

Originally Posted By RikWriter:
WWIII was the Cold War.
We're in WWIV and have been for about 25 years. It started with the Iranian Revolution.




That's pretty much how I see it.
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 8:54:09 AM EDT

Originally Posted By zeekh:

Originally Posted By HKgnnr:

Upstate NY secedes from NYC




Amen brother lets get the paper work started




Maybe you guys could just cut NYC loose and push it out into the ocean. If it doesn't sink the currents will carry it to Europe.
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 9:09:33 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Brohawk:

Originally Posted By zeekh:

Originally Posted By HKgnnr:

Upstate NY secedes from NYC




Amen brother lets get the paper work started




Maybe you guys could just cut NYC loose and push it out into the ocean. If it doesn't sink the currents will carry it to Europe.



Please try to attach Philadelphia to the floating cess pool. Us Pennsylvanians will help push. Thanks!
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 9:10:51 AM EDT
dude it like ended last week, where have you been?
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 10:47:23 AM EDT
tag for later....
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 10:49:54 AM EDT
Hopefully it happens soon, Im getting ansy. Hopefully every nation in the world will have a beef with someone, and expansionism is the word of the day. I wonder who is going to take over madagascar?
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 11:57:56 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/25/2006 11:58:53 AM EDT by The_Sgt_Rock]
It’s easy to assume that things are moving “to the brink” when you look at today’s headlines. And yet we emerged from the Cold War unscathed, a time when all thought that things couldn’t become direr. Regardless, I would think that a future war would be triggered by economic collapse and competition for resources more so than religion alone. One article that recently caught my eye…

By Fred Weir, Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor, Wed Oct 26, 2005
===========================================================
Russia and China could take a step closer to forming a Eurasian military confederacy to rival NATO at a Moscow meeting of the six-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Wednesday, experts say. The group, which started in 2001 with limited goals of promoting cooperation in former Soviet Central Asia, has evolved rapidly toward a regional security bloc and could soon induct new members such as India, Pakistan, and Iran.

My thoughts...

Although such an alliance would make for strange bedfellows, it's possible that these countries could form a loose knit confederacy. Of even bigger concern, it's been rumored that China's aggressive military budget is likely 3x what they have openly reported. Just five years ago China had no capabilities to conduct an amphibious assault on Taiwan. Today, they have several
troop transports and are building more. They have bought many submarines from Russia in addition to the right to produce Soviet fighters within the PRC. The Russians are so strapped for cash that they are more than willing to sell military hardware to China. While these two countries were pitted against each other during the Cold War, Russia is increasingly wary of U.S. dominance in world affairs. The fact that even more former communist block countries could be considered for NATO partnership raises the stakes even further. It’s also apparent that China and Russia are very concerned by continued U.S. presence in their backyard, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan. There of course, is much global suspicion that the U.S. is in Iraq in an attempt to secure its access to oil in an uncertain world. It's well known that one reason oil prices surged this year is due to the fact that China was aggressively seeking to secure it's own oil to fuel its booming growth. This competition will only get fiercer. And while it would seem that China would have an economic stake in playing nice with the U.S., there is no shortage of global companies who seek access to China's cheap labor force. Their economy might eventually be one to be reckoned with.

Another point of concern is the state of the global economy. Of course we all know that the U.S. economy is the worlds largest and what happens on Wall Street certainly influences foreign markets. But I cannot help but think that the U.S. economy is on very shaky grounds. Our trade deficit continues to increase to record levels, along with the budget deficit, national debt, and consumer debt. I still believe that there is too much excess speculation on Wall Street and what relief was provided when the market dipped in 2001, it wasn't enough and stock prices are still too high. Renowned Yale economist Robert Shiller has also recently stated that current average PE ratios are still far above their historical norm and implied that speculation still abounds. But while Wall Street cooled off in 2001-2002, the next round of speculation simply shifted to create the real estate bubble. Recent estimates place some of America’s hottest properties to be overvalued by up to 50%. Would a drop in home valuations cause consumer spending to cool off? I’m not sure, but it’s unsettling to me how the state of the economy is driven by something so fragile as “consumer confidence”. The point is, history has shown that the longer mass speculation goes unchecked, the worse the consequences and more severe the medicine. If the economy ever does fall into a recession, foreign investors pulling their money out of Wall Street in search alternative investments would further exacerbate the problem.

Also troubling is the state of manufacturing in this country. American steel manufacturing used to be tops in the world but eventually collapsed due to global competition. This collapse was eventually followed by the airline industry and now quite possibly, the American auto industry. Detroit’s big three used to dominate the globe. Now a foreign company owns one of those and Ford & GM find themselves struggling against a myriad of challenges. Much else of the U.S. manufacturing capacity has been off shored to foreign soil.
The good news continues. The increase of corporate bankruptcies and dumped pensions is putting an ever-growing strain on PBGC. As you know, PBGC is a government-backed agency, which backs pension plans or takes over defaulted pensions at a reduced rate of return. Last reports showed PBGC under funded by tens of billions of dollars and some fear that the government will eventually be forced to bail them out. This would be much larger than the S&L bailout many years back. And what about Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, which are also grossly under funded? (So this is what we get which Socialism…eh?) While any one of these concerns may not pose substantial risk to the economy and it’s ability to weather the storm, their combined weight certainly do.

So what if there was a global collapse of economies? Is it impossible to conceive Russia moving back to communism out of sheer desperation? Could ever-growing demands for fossil fuels and raw materials force China to become an aggressor to feed its growing economy and population, much like Japan in the 1940's? Perhaps Iran and other Islamic extremist countries would provide oil to energy-starved countries like China, so long as they back them militarily against the hated Jews and Americans? And while Russian and Chinese politicians appear to be religiously stagnant, they probably would have no problems backing religious extremism so long as they stood to benefit.

But then again, perhaps my biggest concern should be with Iran? You have a country awash with oil that claims it needs nuclear technology to feed it’s growing energy needs. That is pure bullshit. The Iranian president simply sees himself in a position to hasten in the second coming of their “Allah”. With that in mind it seems unlikely that Iran will bow to diplomatic pressures. He will only exploit this confrontation with the UN to further his religious goals. He would really welcome an attack by the hated Jewish state as it would really unite the Arabs, Muslims, Islams (whatever the hell you call all them all???)

Those were a few thoughts I had. I’m sure there are many flaws with my opinions, so go easy on me my friends.

Link Posted: 1/25/2006 12:17:00 PM EDT
When Albert Einstinen was asked what kind of weapons would be used in WWIII, He replied"I do not know. But I can tell you we will be using stick and stones for WWIV"
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 12:22:23 PM EDT

Originally Posted By HKgnnr:
Speculation/Predictions here, confilicts perhaps in the next 8 years. Could be closer than we think based upon escalation of Iran issue to the point of military conflict:

China invades Taiwan
Pakistan/India full blown attacks on each other
Syria goes back into Lebannon, attacks Israel
Iran/Syria vs. Israel/US

And less likely but hopeful ,
Texas secedes, joins Arizona and New Mexico, invades Mexico
Upstate NY secedes from NYC
Nevada uses chainsaws and starts cutting California loose.
ARFCOMMers hold month long Tannerite Fest on the California border. California is ultimately blown into the Indian Ocean.





If you're gonna do it...do it right.
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 12:32:03 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/25/2006 12:32:45 PM EDT by Penguin_101]

Originally Posted By Young_Blood:
When Albert Einstinen was asked what kind of weapons would be used in WWIII, He replied"I do not know. But I can tell you we will be using stick and stones for WWIV"



Yeah, but what did he know?

I don't see a WW happening, but I do see something between Iran and Isreal. I think that the US will help with supplies like in the beginning of WWII, but will remain quiet militarily until we are attacked. I also think when something starts between Iran and Isreal we will pull in 93% of our troops back home.
Link Posted: 1/25/2006 12:36:47 PM EDT
87 minutes and one too many poll option away from WWIII.
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