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Posted: 10/7/2022 11:32:21 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote Historylmao |
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Posted: 10/7/2022 11:34:36 PM EDT
[#2]
We have a number of pretty consistent doomers in most of these threads.
Surely they are all getting rich buying puts, yes? |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 6:25:43 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Oh, that's cute.  It's historically correct. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 6:58:19 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If your timeline is the LONG game, dip your toe in. Continue to do so on the dips. Its probably going lower for a while, maybe a couple years. This. Despite the oft quoted mantra, you can, in fact time the market. In fact, the “smart money” is doing exactly that, right now. You can’t call the bottom though, so hopefully you saved much of your cash, and can now start buying back in, say 5 or 10% at a time. One technique that works well, is pre-place your buy orders. Say, ~10-15% lower than today, or whatever. Let them hit when you least expect it. This does two things: takes the emotion out of it, since you will NOT feel like buying on those big down days. Plus, you might be busy and not able to buy. You can always revise them up or down as conditions dictate. I’ll be placing limit orders for about $150k today. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 7:00:57 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Fed only doing what the dumbasses in DC are forcing them to do. Zimbabwe is not the model to follow.  Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: it's gonna stay fucked until the fed knocks it off Fed only doing what the dumbasses in DC are forcing them to do. Zimbabwe is not the model to follow. But soon I’ll be |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 7:03:02 AM EDT
[#6]
On Monday.
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Posted: 10/8/2022 7:05:28 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This. I have only been in it for 18 months. So of course I bought in when things were way, way "up" last year. My only way to possible profit is to average down. So as shitty as the market is right now, I'm DCA all the way to try to get ahead of the next bull run. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Better just to buy and dollar cost average. Timing the market is a losing strategy. I have only been in it for 18 months. So of course I bought in when things were way, way "up" last year. My only way to possible profit is to average down. So as shitty as the market is right now, I'm DCA all the way to try to get ahead of the next bull run. Do you understand fundamentals? Do you understand what caused the “bull run”? Do you understand the macro economics which shape the big picture? It’s worth trying to learn, so you’re not just YOLO’ing good money after bad. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 7:23:16 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Buy when spidey gives up. IYKYK.... Ah yes, the inverse Spidey Index. Many of us are tracking it.  One thing you will notice when we get close to total capitulation: Threads like this will sort of drop off. People will be so demoralized, they just won’t feel like talking about it much. You won’t hear as many people quoting the old saws “Can’t time the market” or “Dollar cost average!” or “time IN the market” etc. They won’t admit they were wrong, but they will sort of trail off into radio silence…. That’s when you jump in it.  . It’s not a perfect science, but it’s our generation’s version of Blood in the Streets.
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Posted: 10/8/2022 7:28:33 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The market cratered today because the Job #'s came in better than expected. This would be good news if we weren't in clown world.  But, that's something the FED didn't want to hear because they want unemployment close to 5% to slay their inflation dragon. So, the market expects an even more hawkish FED in the near future. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: LOL @ hoping the fed will bail anything out. The fed has two options: raise rates and enter into depression, or lower rates and increase inflation. Choose your poison. They've backed themselves into a corner with decades of casino gambling with the US economy. What's the quote from Ayn Rand? You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality. Welcome to the consequences of ignoring reality. The market cratered today because the Job #'s came in better than expected. This would be good news if we weren't in clown world. But, that's something the FED didn't want to hear because they want unemployment close to 5% to slay their inflation dragon. So, the market expects an even more hawkish FED in the near future. This is an important concept for people to understand: It shows how dependent equity prices are, on FED stimulus, rather than fundamentals. IOW, the market is waiting for the fabled “pivot”, and the Fed is still indicating it’s far away. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 7:32:31 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Could be a rebound Monday though. Market is down now after the Sep jobs report. Jobs market is still too hot, so feds will continue rate increases. The job market isn’t red hot, 38% of work age Americans have permanently dropped out of the workforce. Most are on some sort of welfare, to include SS disability. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 7:34:12 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryThat's not always bad. Depending on your buy in strategy. :) |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 7:44:36 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Call the bottom within 1000 points. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: wrong market timing is everything, dollar cost averaging is a cheap financial planner scam to always make himself money. It does matters what you time the market to, hint: it isn't what the market is currently doing or what you read about in financial articles that are designed to sell stocks and funds. Call the bottom within 1000 points. That’s an intentionally retarded challenge. “Call the bottom within 3600 would be far more realistic. That’s 10%. It means we still preserved ~20% that can be re-invested at the right time. I’m going to say DJIA 26,400. Go ahead and mark it down now, then get my Pmags boxed up and ready to ship. 20% for some of us is 200k, for others, it might be 1m. Either way, it represents Years of savings. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 7:45:13 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's historically correct. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Oh, that's cute. It's historically correct. Except mid terms aren’t driving this time. The Fed is. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 7:46:55 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Do you understand fundamentals? Do you understand what caused the “bull run”? Do you understand the macro economics which shape the big picture? It’s worth trying to learn, so you’re not just YOLO’ing good money after bad. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Better just to buy and dollar cost average. Timing the market is a losing strategy. I have only been in it for 18 months. So of course I bought in when things were way, way "up" last year. My only way to possible profit is to average down. So as shitty as the market is right now, I'm DCA all the way to try to get ahead of the next bull run. Do you understand fundamentals? Do you understand what caused the “bull run”? Do you understand the macro economics which shape the big picture? It’s worth trying to learn, so you’re not just YOLO’ing good money after bad. No one trades on fundamentals. It’s all about YOLO and FOMO. That’s the scary part, people think it’s “investing”. Ask about discounted future cash flows for he investment prospect and eyes glaze over. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 7:49:45 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The job market isn’t red hot, 38% of work age Americans have permanently dropped out of the workforce. Most are on some sort of welfare, to include SS disability. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Could be a rebound Monday though. Market is down now after the Sep jobs report. Jobs market is still too hot, so feds will continue rate increases. The job market isn’t red hot, 38% of work age Americans have permanently dropped out of the workforce. Most are on some sort of welfare, to include SS disability. A portion of the labor force has always been “dropped” out as retirees. The post COVID dynamic didn’t result in 38% of active workers leaving. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 8:02:46 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No one trades on fundamentals. It’s all about YOLO and FOMO. That’s the scary part, people think it’s “investing”. Ask about discounted future cash flows for he investment prospect and eyes glaze over. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Better just to buy and dollar cost average. Timing the market is a losing strategy. I have only been in it for 18 months. So of course I bought in when things were way, way "up" last year. My only way to possible profit is to average down. So as shitty as the market is right now, I'm DCA all the way to try to get ahead of the next bull run. Do you understand fundamentals? Do you understand what caused the “bull run”? Do you understand the macro economics which shape the big picture? It’s worth trying to learn, so you’re not just YOLO’ing good money after bad. No one trades on fundamentals. It’s all about YOLO and FOMO. That’s the scary part, people think it’s “investing”. Ask about discounted future cash flows for he investment prospect and eyes glaze over. I especially love when they say “Stocks R on Sale Yo!” OK Great! Relative to What? I too, remember the first time I had a few extra bucks, and the guy at the credit union gave me that glossy brochure which showed I could easily become a millionaire if I invested just 10% a year for life.  It was all so simple and guaranteed by numbers and history. Then I flipped it over and read the small print…. past performance is no guarantee of future results . that was 2 1/2 crashes ago. I still got to the fabled millionaire status, but it turns out, it don’t mean nuthin no mo.
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Posted: 10/8/2022 9:51:14 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ah yes, the inverse Spidey Index. Many of us are tracking it. One thing you will notice when we get close to total capitulation: Threads like this will sort of drop off. People will be so demoralized, they just won’t feel like talking about it much. You won’t hear as many people quoting the old saws “Can’t time the market” or “Dollar cost average!” or “time IN the market” etc. They won’t admit they were wrong, but they will sort of trail off into radio silence…. That’s when you jump in it. . It’s not a perfect science, but it’s our generation’s version of Blood in the Streets.The thing is folks on arf will still be in here talking about dca. And will still just have been making their weekly/monthly buys. There are already a lot of blood in the streets doomers. Spy is down 25% since december, how much more hurt you think we gonna get? |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 9:55:10 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The thing is folks on arf will still be in here talking about dca. And will still just have been making their weekly/monthly buys. There are already a lot of blood in the streets doomers. Spy is down 25% sunce december, how much more hurt you think we gonna get? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Ah yes, the inverse Spidey Index. Many of us are tracking it. One thing you will notice when we get close to total capitulation: Threads like this will sort of drop off. People will be so demoralized, they just won’t feel like talking about it much. You won’t hear as many people quoting the old saws “Can’t time the market” or “Dollar cost average!” or “time IN the market” etc. They won’t admit they were wrong, but they will sort of trail off into radio silence…. That’s when you jump in it. . It’s not a perfect science, but it’s our generation’s version of Blood in the Streets.The thing is folks on arf will still be in here talking about dca. And will still just have been making their weekly/monthly buys. There are already a lot of blood in the streets doomers. Spy is down 25% sunce december, how much more hurt you think we gonna get? A lot more. Powell said we need medicine which involves pain. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 3:46:05 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The thing is folks on arf will still be in here talking about dca. And will still just have been making their weekly/monthly buys. There are already a lot of blood in the streets doomers. Spy is down 25% since december, how much more hurt you think we gonna get? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Ah yes, the inverse Spidey Index. Many of us are tracking it. One thing you will notice when we get close to total capitulation: Threads like this will sort of drop off. People will be so demoralized, they just won’t feel like talking about it much. You won’t hear as many people quoting the old saws “Can’t time the market” or “Dollar cost average!” or “time IN the market” etc. They won’t admit they were wrong, but they will sort of trail off into radio silence…. That’s when you jump in it. . It’s not a perfect science, but it’s our generation’s version of Blood in the Streets.The thing is folks on arf will still be in here talking about dca. And will still just have been making their weekly/monthly buys. There are already a lot of blood in the streets doomers. Spy is down 25% since december, how much more hurt you think we gonna get? That’s a great question, and one I’m going to start a thread about. We aren’t close to capitulation yet. 5%-10% more perhaps?, but we are going to see some wild swings. People are getting twitchy. Any little black swan will throw the market into panic. It’s a shame that there’s so many idiots who believe they can time the market. They’re causing great instability. I’m putting in buy orders at -5 and -10% -15% etc and will modify as needed. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 3:54:49 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: A fool would think the market will be up over the next 2 quarters. There is no indication that it will be up. I just narrowed the market timing to 6 months. Let’s pick a stock and I will narrow it down to the next earnings call. Altria |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 3:57:00 PM EDT
[#21]
Quoted: Is it time to buy bigly, or just nibble? 50/50 |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 4:24:24 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I congratulate you on a successfully timed market exit. But here is the thing. If the last hundred years of market history holds, the DJIA will break 200k within my expected life span. Worrying about if you are buying at 30k, 28k, or 25k is pretty irrelevant. Total dollars invested, and total time in the market, trump market timing. 200k.... LOL. That's fine if you're 25 years old. Not so much if you're anywhere near retirement. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 4:31:02 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It’s not Monday |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 4:43:37 PM EDT
[#24]
I'm going to be buying TSM, AMD, INTC, and NVDA from here on out. I'd like to see them chunk down one more time. Going back in time 5-10 years on prices on these companies and they are responsible for a huge portion of all the tech we use.
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Posted: 10/8/2022 5:13:39 PM EDT
[#25]
I am buying long term investments on the DOOM days.
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Posted: 10/8/2022 5:27:02 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 200k.... LOL. That's fine if you're 25 years old. Not so much if you're anywhere near retirement. If you are anywhere near retirement you shouldn’t be exposed to enough equity risk for this correction to change your life plans. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 5:27:49 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 200k.... LOL. That's fine if you're 25 years old. Ok boomer |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 5:28:10 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That’s an intentionally retarded challenge. “Call the bottom within 3600 would be far more realistic. That’s 10%. It means we still preserved ~20% that can be re-invested at the right time. I’m going to say DJIA 26,400. Go ahead and mark it down now, then get my Pmags boxed up and ready to ship. 20% for some of us is 200k, for others, it might be 1m. Either way, it represents Years of savings. Lol, no. Mach is the one claiming market timing is a viable strategy. He can put his money where his mouth is. And 20% isn’t years of savings. It’s 2 years of fake returns propped up on the house of cards of money printing and interest rate suppression. Investment accounts are returning to where they should have been all along |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 5:33:32 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: FIFY Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Laughs FIFY Market dowsing |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 5:45:51 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm going to be buying TSM, AMD, INTC, and NVDA from here on out. I'd like to see them chunk down one more time. Going back in time 5-10 years on prices on these companies and they are responsible for a huge portion of all the tech we use. @big_aug Check out SOXX ETF. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 5:46:51 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 200k.... LOL. That's fine if you're 25 years old. Not so much if you're anywhere near retirement. Considering most market indices except for the Nasdaq have just barely broke even vs. central bank balance sheet growth, I'd say wishing for 200k in the Dow is pants on head retarded. The Dow will be at 200k and the price of a loaf of bread will be $20 and our national debt will be $300T where we printed and own 90% of it, a la Japan. 
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Posted: 10/8/2022 6:10:31 PM EDT
[#32]
Market timing, market dowsing, how about market projection?
I'm working through the Fidelity retirement section because I'm 3 or 4 years from retirement. Have a 401K that's down 9% for the year. Not bad, all considering. As I work through the retirement planning section it gives me a nice 20 year estimation of my monthly income for the future until I'm 85. All through the site they remind me that "past performance is no guarantee of future performance" and we all know you can't predict the market. But now Fidelity is somehow predicting my income for the next 20 years and that includes me choosing whether I'm estimating a conservative, less-conservative, or moderate market gain for the future. WTF? Is Fidelity "predicting" the market for the next 20 years? Upon looking into the fine print of how they do this, they run a multitude of market projections with Monte Carlo simulations that settle at 50%, 75% or 90% returns (I'm probably misquoting that a bit, going from memory, forgive me). But thankfully they're not predicting future market performance, oh no, not that. Got it. Running simulations makes it okay to make predictions? Sheesh, this is all a crap game. All I need is for the S&P 500 to return an average of 6% over the next 20 years and I make it without Social Security. Can any of you quants shed light on the distinction between predicting future market performance vs running Monte Carlo simulations to make future income projections? |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 6:10:53 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm going to be buying TSM, AMD, INTC, and NVDA from here on out. I'd like to see them chunk down one more time. Going back in time 5-10 years on prices on these companies and they are responsible for a huge portion of all the tech we use. I think INTC is a solid buy right now. Crazy low P/E, high dividend, fairly low payout ratio, and they certainly aren't going anywhere. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 6:14:13 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Could be a rebound Monday though. Market is down now after the Sep jobs report. Jobs market is still too hot, so feds will continue rate increases. CEOs report says otherwise. Significant drop in availible jobs and over half believe we are already in a recession. Also, the other number we need to look at is the labor participation rate, which is low. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 6:27:19 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lol, no. Mach is the one claiming market timing is a viable strategy. He can put his money where his mouth is. And 20% isn’t years of savings. It’s 2 years of fake returns propped up on the house of cards of money printing and interest rate suppression. Investment accounts are returning to where they should have been all along Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: That’s an intentionally retarded challenge. “Call the bottom within 3600 would be far more realistic. That’s 10%. It means we still preserved ~20% that can be re-invested at the right time. I’m going to say DJIA 26,400. Go ahead and mark it down now, then get my Pmags boxed up and ready to ship. 20% for some of us is 200k, for others, it might be 1m. Either way, it represents Years of savings. Lol, no. Mach is the one claiming market timing is a viable strategy. He can put his money where his mouth is. And 20% isn’t years of savings. It’s 2 years of fake returns propped up on the house of cards of money printing and interest rate suppression. Investment accounts are returning to where they should have been all along The worst kind of deception, is self deception. 20% is 300k for me. It’s probably twice that for Spidey and Mach. I save about $62k a year in my 401k which is more than most people can. Even so, that 20% loss represents over 4 years of diligent hard earned savings. Especially, when you consider that I am limited to ten years of contributions of no more than $62,000 per year. Call it capital preservation if you like, but intentionally riding a market down, just because you got indoctrinated by a market slogan, is imprudent. I don’t have to call the bottom because I’m buying back in 10-20k at a time. And make no mistake, it’s real money. The mental games you guys play where Gains are celebrated and losses are are rationalized away? I would be dead in a week if I conducted the rest of my life that way. Loses are Real. It’s stupid to ignore reality in matters of money. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 6:29:41 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 50/50 Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Is it time to buy bigly, or just nibble? 50/50 This is the way. I’ll keep preaching what I always do. Just keep buying on the regular but at the same time build some cash reserves to lump sum when it’s 20% off highs. It’s really just cash flow management. So DCA everything or build up huge cash horde? Get both. But the cash horde just isn’t huge. It’s medium. DCA is a risk reduction means, not max returns way. It literally averages your risk. But if consistent you get average returns long term. Which is 10%. It’s an investor mindset. If somebody gave you 100k cash today. What would you do? Well that depends on your risk and time. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 6:40:16 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think INTC is a solid buy right now. Crazy low P/E, high dividend, fairly low payout ratio, and they certainly aren't going anywhere. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I'm going to be buying TSM, AMD, INTC, and NVDA from here on out. I'd like to see them chunk down one more time. Going back in time 5-10 years on prices on these companies and they are responsible for a huge portion of all the tech we use. I think INTC is a solid buy right now. Crazy low P/E, high dividend, fairly low payout ratio, and they certainly aren't going anywhere. Hot damn it's $25/share. I hadn't paid attention to it in awhile. Thanks! |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 6:50:37 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This is the way. I’ll keep preaching what I always do. Just keep buying on the regular but at the same time build some cash reserves to lump sum when it’s 20% off highs. It’s really just cash flow management. So DCA everything or build up huge cash horde? Get both. But the cash horde just isn’t huge. It’s medium. DCA is a risk reduction means, not max returns way. It literally averages your risk. But if consistent you get average returns long term. Which is 10%. It’s an investor mindset. If somebody gave you 100k cash today. What would you do? Well that depends on your risk and time. This is just mental masturbation. Anything less than a stick at a time is meaningless for big picture returns. Who cares if you net an extra 10% when it only equates to $10k? |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 6:53:49 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This is just mental masturbation. Anything less than a stick at a time is meaningless for big picture returns. Who cares if you net an extra 10% when it only equates to $10k? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: This is the way. I’ll keep preaching what I always do. Just keep buying on the regular but at the same time build some cash reserves to lump sum when it’s 20% off highs. It’s really just cash flow management. So DCA everything or build up huge cash horde? Get both. But the cash horde just isn’t huge. It’s medium. DCA is a risk reduction means, not max returns way. It literally averages your risk. But if consistent you get average returns long term. Which is 10%. It’s an investor mindset. If somebody gave you 100k cash today. What would you do? Well that depends on your risk and time. This is just mental masturbation. Anything less than a stick at a time is meaningless for big picture returns. Who cares if you net an extra 10% when it only equates to $10k? The 10% is annual returns. That get compounded. Lol. Do the math. You can google rule of 72. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 6:55:54 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Hot damn it's $25/share. I hadn't paid attention to it in awhile. Thanks! Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: I'm going to be buying TSM, AMD, INTC, and NVDA from here on out. I'd like to see them chunk down one more time. Going back in time 5-10 years on prices on these companies and they are responsible for a huge portion of all the tech we use. I think INTC is a solid buy right now. Crazy low P/E, high dividend, fairly low payout ratio, and they certainly aren't going anywhere. Hot damn it's $25/share. I hadn't paid attention to it in awhile. Thanks! They also announced they are going to make graphics cards to compete with Nvidia, |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 6:56:35 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Better just to buy and dollar cost average. Timing the market is a losing strategy. I timed the market and glad I did. I went to all cash when FJB was installed. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 6:57:14 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The 10% is annual returns. That get compounded. Lol. Do the math. LOL $10k 10x to $100k is still chump change. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 7:11:15 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: LOL $10k 10x to $100k is still chump change. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The 10% is annual returns. That get compounded. Lol. Do the math. LOL $10k 10x to $100k is still chump change. You gotta start somewhere and sometime. My 401k alone invests 27500 per year. Wife’s 457 was 27500 a year. So 56k per year invested. Pretty soon you’re talking real money. Pretty long you’re talking serious serious money. It’s. Just. Math. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 7:16:05 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: On Monday. Market Crash 4. 
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Posted: 10/8/2022 7:20:34 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Market timing, market dowsing, how about market projection? I'm working through the Fidelity retirement section because I'm 3 or 4 years from retirement. Have a 401K that's down 9% for the year. Not bad, all considering. As I work through the retirement planning section it gives me a nice 20 year estimation of my monthly income for the future until I'm 85. All through the site they remind me that "past performance is no guarantee of future performance" and we all know you can't predict the market. But now Fidelity is somehow predicting my income for the next 20 years and that includes me choosing whether I'm estimating a conservative, less-conservative, or moderate market gain for the future. WTF? Is Fidelity "predicting" the market for the next 20 years? Upon looking into the fine print of how they do this, they run a multitude of market projections with Monte Carlo simulations that settle at 50%, 75% or 90% returns (I'm probably misquoting that a bit, going from memory, forgive me). But thankfully they're not predicting future market performance, oh no, not that. Got it. Running simulations makes it okay to make predictions? Sheesh, this is all a crap game. All I need is for the S&P 500 to return an average of 6% over the next 20 years and I make it without Social Security. Can any of you quants shed light on the distinction between predicting future market performance vs running Monte Carlo simulations to make future income projections? Monte Carlo simulation are probabilities. To their projections are based on probabilities given historical market performance. It ignores the macro view. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 8:16:22 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Considering most market indices except for the Nasdaq have just barely broke even vs. central bank balance sheet growth, I'd say wishing for 200k in the Dow is pants on head retarded. The Dow will be at 200k and the price of a loaf of bread will be $20 and our national debt will be $300T where we printed and own 90% of it, a la Japan. https://i.imgur.com/zucb0xe.png Pants on head retarded? lol. The Dow is at 30k. Rule of 72. 60k, 120k, 240k in less than 30 years. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 8:38:23 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The worst kind of deception, is self deception. 20% is 300k for me. It’s probably twice that for Spidey and Mach. I save about $62k a year in my 401k which is more than most people can. Even so, that 20% loss represents over 4 years of diligent hard earned savings. Especially, when you consider that I am limited to ten years of contributions of no more than $62,000 per year. Call it capital preservation if you like, but intentionally riding a market down, just because you got indoctrinated by a market slogan, is imprudent. I don’t have to call the bottom because I’m buying back in 10-20k at a time. And make no mistake, it’s real money. The mental games you guys play where Gains are celebrated and losses are are rationalized away? I would be dead in a week if I conducted the rest of my life that way. Loses are Real. It’s stupid to ignore reality in matters of money. I don’t know what to tell you. The 20%-30% annual returns from 2019-2021 were fueled by unsustainable and artificial means, not growth in the underlying business fundamentals. When stock market gains are driven by P/E expansion, the correction is inevitable. It’s not emotion or deception. It’s just math. Much like recognizing that if you are goin to be investing for the next 30 years, these corrections are nothing more than a buying opportunity. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 8:47:15 PM EDT
[#48]
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Posted: 10/8/2022 9:08:43 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryI can’t take him seriously. |
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Posted: 10/8/2022 9:49:56 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Pants on head retarded? lol. The Dow is at 30k. Rule of 72. 60k, 120k, 240k in less than 30 years. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Considering most market indices except for the Nasdaq have just barely broke even vs. central bank balance sheet growth, I'd say wishing for 200k in the Dow is pants on head retarded. The Dow will be at 200k and the price of a loaf of bread will be $20 and our national debt will be $300T where we printed and own 90% of it, a la Japan. https://i.imgur.com/zucb0xe.png Pants on head retarded? lol. The Dow is at 30k. Rule of 72. 60k, 120k, 240k in less than 30 years. So you are saying 7% annual growth every year for the next 30? That isn’t happening. |
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